76
January - June 2009 Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey

January - June 2009

  • Upload
    tasya

  • View
    35

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

January - June 2009. Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey. Firm distribution based on Annual Turnover based on responses received: Jan – June 2009. Salient Features. Economic Impact. Relationship to Gross Fixed Capital Formation. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Citation preview

Page 1: January - June 2009

January - June 2009

Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey

Page 2: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Firm distribution based on Annual Turnoverbased on responses received: Jan – June 2009

Category by gross annual income

% of firms

0 – R1,5m 14%

R1,5m – R11,5m 49%

> R11,5m 37%

Total 100.0%

Firm distribution based on turnover

0-1.510.8%

1.5-11.541.5%

>11.547.7%

Category by employment

% of firms % of industry employment

A > 100 (Large)

23.3% 81.8%

B 20 – 100(Medium)

34.9% 13.6%

C 10 – 20(Small)

23.3% 3.4%

D< 10 (Micro)

18.6% 1.2%

Firm distribution based on employment

>10083%

20 - 10012%

10 - 204%

<101%

Page 3: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Salient Features

Page 4: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Economic Impact

Page 5: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Relationship to Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Page 6: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

2 0002 500

3 0003 5004 000

4 5005 0005 500

6 0006 5007 000

7 5008 000

8 5009 0009 500

10 00010 50011 000

11 50012 000

Rm

, 20

00 p

rices

Rm (Annualised) 4 502 4 323 3 598 3 558 3 212 3 259 3 395 3 719 3 562 3 922 3 725 3 593 3 426 3 666 3 692 3 957 4 330 5 954 5 983 6 771 7 183 9499 10407 9700

Dec-97

J un-98

Dec-98

J un-99

Dec-99

J un-00

Dec-00

J un-01

Dec-01

J un-02

Dec-02

J un-03

Dec-03

J un-04

Dec-04

J un-05

Dec-05

J un-06

Dec-06

J un-07

Dec-07

J un-08

Dec-08

J un-09

Consulting Engineering IndustryFee income, Rm Constant 2000 prices (CPI Deflated) Annualised

Page 7: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Survey period

PE

RC

EN

TA

GE

% 13% 12% 8% -20% -18% -11% -8% 6% 14% 5% 5% 5% -8% -8% 2% 8% 8% 17% 51% 38% 14% 20% 40% 43% 2.10%

Jun-

97

Dec-

97

Jun-

98

Dec-

98

Jun-

99

Dec-

99

Jun-

00

Dec-

00

Jun-

01

Dec-

01

Jun-

02

Dec-

02

Jun-

03

Dec-

03

Jun-

04

Dec-

04

Jun-

05

Dec-

05

Jun-

06

Dec-

06

Jun-

07

Dec-

07

Jun-

08

Dec-

08

Jun-

09

Consulting Engineering IndustryReal Fee income (CPI deflated), 2000 prices: Annual Change

Page 8: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Jun

-95

Jun

-96

Jun

-97

De

c-9

7

Jun

-98

De

c-9

8

Jun

-99

De

c-9

9

Jun

-00

De

c-0

0

Jun

-01

De

c-0

1

Jun

-02

De

c-0

2

Jun

-03

De

c-0

3

Jun

-04

De

c-0

4

Jun

-05

De

c-0

5

Jun

-06

De

c-0

6

Jun

-07

De

c-0

7

Jun

-08

De

c-0

8

Jun

-09

De

c-0

9

Jun

-09

% Change fro

m p

revio

us

surv

ey

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

% R

esp

ondents

sati

sfied

% Chg Index

CESAConfidence Index

Page 9: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Page 10: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Jun-

96

Jun-

97

Jan-

98

Jun-

98

Jan-

99

Jun-

99

Jan-

00

Jun-

00

Dec

-00

Jun-

01

Dec

-01

Jun-

02

Dec

-02

Jun-

03

Dec

-03

Jun-

04

Dec

-04

Jun-

05

Dec

-05

Jun-

06

Dec

-06

Jun-

07

Dec

-07

Jun-

08

Dec

-08

Jun-

09

Dec

-09

Jun-

10

CO

NF

IDE

NC

E IN

DE

X

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

Fee

inco

me

(con

stan

t pr

ices

)

Confidence Fee income Constant prices

Consulting Engineering IndustryReal Fee income (CPI deflated) vs confidence

Page 11: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

Per

cent

age

LCI 15.15% 11.35% 22.51% 21.88% 9.24% -1.92% 3.77% 15.00% 7.97% 2.88% 4.32% 14.26% 21.50% 11.30% 5.30% 7.20% 9.50% 10.60% 9.10% 10.20% 17.80% 25.50% 25.40%

Jun-98 Jan-99 Jun-99 Jan-00 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09

CESA Labour Cost Indicator: Y-Y Change

Page 12: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Jun-

96

Jun-

97

Jan-

98

Jun-

98

Jan-

99

Jun-

99

Jan-

00

Jun-

00

Dec

-00

Jun-

01

Dec

-01

Jun-

02

Dec

-02

Jun-

03

Dec

-03

Jun-

04

Dec

-04

Jun-

05

Dec

-05

Jun-

06

Dec

-06

Jun-

07

Dec

-07

Jun-

08

Dec

-08

Jun-

09

Dec

-09

Jun-

10

CO

NF

IDE

NC

E I

ND

EX

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

16000

17000

18000

19000

20000

Fee

in

com

e, R

mil

l, c

urr

ent

pri

ces

Confidence Fee income Current prices Trend

Consulting Engineering IndustryNominal Fee income vs confidence

Page 13: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

8 500

9 500

10 500

11 500

12 500

13 500

14 500

15 500

16 500

17 500

18 500

19 500

20 500D

ec-

97

Jun

-98

De

c-9

8

Jun

-99

De

c-9

9

Jun

-00

De

c-0

0

Jun

-01

De

c-0

1

Jun

-02

De

c-0

2

Jun

-03

De

c-0

3

Jun

-04

De

c-0

4

Jun

-05

De

c-0

5

Jun

-06

De

c-0

6

Jun

-07

De

c-0

7

Jun

-08

De

c-0

8

Jun

-09

Em

ploy

men

t

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

11 000

Fee

inco

me

(con

stan

t pr

ices

)

Employment Revised Income: CPI Income : CESA LCI

Consulting Engineering IndustryEmployment vs REAL fee income (CPI / LCI Deflated)

Page 14: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

9 500

10 500

11 500

12 500

13 500

14 500

15 500

16 500

17 500

18 500

19 500

20 500

Dec

-97

Jun-

98

Dec

-98

Jun-

99

Dec

-99

Jun-

00

Dec

-00

Jun-

01

Dec

-01

Jun-

02

Dec

-02

Jun-

03

Dec

-03

Jun-

04

Dec

-04

Jun-

05

Dec

-05

Jun-

06

Dec

-06

Jun-

07

Dec

-07

Jun-

08

Dec

-08

Jun-

09

Em

plo

yme

nt

0

300

600

900

1 200

1 500

1 800

2 100

2 400

2 700

3 000

3 300

3 600

3 900

4 200

4 500

4 800

5 100

5 400

Sa

lary

/Wa

ge

s (

R m

ill, 2

00

0 p

ric

es

)

Employment Revised Salary/Wage bill (Constant)

Consulting Engineering IndustryEmployment vs Salary / Wage bill

Page 15: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Discounting

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

%

% 15.10% 16.62% 15.30% 15.30% 18.20%

JUN07 DEC07 JUN08 DEC08 JUN09

Question: What is the prevailing discount being offered in a tendering situation to clients by your firm, benchmarked against the ECSA Guideline Fee Scales?

37% of firmsdiscounted by more than 20%

Page 16: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Disciplines

Page 17: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Fee income earned by Sub-disciplines: % ShareJune 2008 to June 2009

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Agricultural

Architecture

Mechanical building Services

Civil

Electrical / Electronic

Environmental

Facilities

Geotechnical

Industrial Process / Chemical

GIS

Hydraulics

Information Systems / Technology

Marine

Mechanical

Mining

Project Management

Quantity Surveying

Structural

Tow n planning

Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09

Question: What type of work did your company engage in during the past 6 months?

Page 18: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Fee income earned by Sub-disciplines: % ShareJune 2008 to June 2009

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Civil

Mining

Project Management

Structural

Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09

Question: What type of work did your company engage in during the past 6 months? 80% of fees are earned in four

disciplines namely civil, project management,

structural and mining

Page 19: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Fee income earned by Sub-disciplines: % Market Share% point change in % share in the last 12 months

-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Agricultural

Architecture

Mechanical building Services

Civil

Electrical / Electronic

Environmental

Facilities

Geotechnical

Industrial Process / Chemical

GIS

Hydraulics

Information Systems / Technology

Marine

Mechanical

Mining

Project Management

Quantity Surveying

Structural

Tow n planning

Question: What type of work did your company engage in during the past 6 months?

Contribution of mining increased to 8,7% in June 2009 Survey

Page 20: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Jun-09

Oth

er,

R m

ill

2000

pri

ces

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Civ

il,

R m

ill

2000

pri

ces

Structural Proj Mang Mining Civil

Fee income earned by Top four disciplines: R mill 2000 pricesAnnual average: 2000 – June 2009 (annualised)

Civil

Page 21: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Economic Sector

Page 22: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

Wat

er

Tra

nspo

rtat

ion

Ene

rgy

Min

ing/

Qua

rryi

ng

Edu

catio

n

Hea

lth

Tou

rism

Hou

sing

Com

mer

cial

Agr

icul

ture

Oth

er

Per

cen

tag

e sh

are

Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09

Fee income earned by economic sectorPercentage market share

June 2007 – June 2009

Section A General Questions: Question: Income distribution per economic sector 80% of fees earned in

transportation, water, commercial and housing sectors.

Mining sector increased its share to 10% in June 2009 survey

Page 23: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09

Oth

er,

R m

ill

2000

pri

ces

Water (Full water cycle) Transportation (land, air, road, rail, ports)

Energy (electricity, gas, hydro) Mining / Quarrying

Tourism / Leisure Housing (residential inc. land)

Commercial

Consulting Engineering IndustryFee income earned by key economic sectors

December 2005 – June 2009

Section A General Questions: Question: Income distribution per economic sector

Page 24: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

% S

ha

re (

ba

r)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15% Share

Change last 12 months

% Share 7.8 9.4 1.6 2.2 1.9 3.2 45.1 2.6 20.2 3.9 2.1

Change last 12 months -1 -3.9 -0.3 -1.9 -0.9 0.3 12.3 -0.6 6.3 -6.8 -3.5

E-Cape W-Cape N-Cape F State N-W Lim Gaut Mpu Kwaz Africa Int'l

Provincial Market Share: June 2009Vs change in market share from June 2008

GA

IN

mark

et

sh

are

Section A: General Questions: Question 10Income distribution per province

Page 25: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

% S

ha

re

2005

2006

2007

2008

Jun-09

2005 9.56 16.4 2.1 4.1 3.5 3.3 35 4.4 14.3 6.1 1.3

2006 9.8 19.5 2.2 4 4 3.2 32.7 3 12.7 7.5 1.5

2007 9.6 18 1.4 4.5 6 3 34.5 3.5 12.5 5.8 1.2

2008 7.1 13.1 1.5 3.3 3.2 2.9 35.9 3.3 13.1 11.6 5.4

Jun-09 6.6 11.2 1.3 2.3 2.7 3 42 3 16.3 8.2 3.7

E-Cape W-Cape N-Cape F State N-W Lim Gaut Mpu Kwaz Africa Int'l

Provincial Market Share2005 – June 2009 (Annual Avg)

Section A: General Questions: Question 10Income distribution per province

Page 26: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

R m

ill,

Co

nst

ant

2000

pri

ces

E-CAPE W-CAPE GAUT KWA-NAT

E-CAPE 277 252 266 243 176 192 278 289 288 353 344 388 450 400 395 465 588 655 667 750 694 654

W-CAPE 507 552 525 482 355 335 481 538 527 518 560 478 438 572 681 1058 1164 1077 1253 1285 1 303 1 127

GAUT 1 502 1 350 1 257 1 195 1 343 1 483 1 383 1 380 1 343 1 120 947 1 122 1 253 1 239 1 452 1769 1954 2113 2408 2813 3 582 4 212

KWA-NAT 591 453 427 409 362 336 375 393 387 379 473 436 420 535 591 688 756 839 871 1066 1 300 1 620

Dec-98 Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec'00 Jun'01 Dec'01 Jun'02 Dec'02 Jun'03 Dec'03 Jun'04 Dec'04 Jun'05 'Dec'05 'Jun'06 'Dec'06 Jun'07 Dec'07 Jun'08 Dec'08 Jun'09

Fee income earned by province(High Capacity economies) – Annualised smoothed

Gauteng

Section A: General Questions: Question 10Income distribution per province

Page 27: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Dec-98

Jun-

99

Dec-99

Jun-

00

Dec'00

Jun'0

1

Dec'01

Jun'0

2

Dec'02

Jun'0

3

Dec'03

Jun'0

4

Dec'04

Jun'0

5

'Dec

'05

'Jun'06

'Dec

'06

Jun'0

7

Dec'07

Jun'0

8

Dec'08

Jun'0

9

Ind

ex D

ec'9

8=10

0

High capacity Low capacity

Fee income earned (Constant 2000 prices)

High Capacity vs lower capacity provincial economies (Smoothed)

High Capacity: WC, EC, GAU, KZN = 80% of total fee earnings (December 2007 survey)

Section A: General Questions: Question 10Income distribution per province

Page 28: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

70.00%

72.00%

74.00%

76.00%

78.00%

80.00%

82.00%

84.00%

86.00%

88.00%

Per

cen

tag

e

% 79.65% 79.73% 81.59% 81.47% 76.04% 75.53% 80.12% 80.68% 80.70% 80.63% 80.07% 79.14% 78.25% 79.42% 81.27% 82.57% 82.07% 81.64% 80% 80.23% 83.25% 86.05%

Dec-98 Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec'00 Jun'01 Dec'01 Jun'02 Dec'02 Jun'03 Dec'03 Jun'04 Dec'04 Jun'05 'Dec'05 'Jun'06 'Dec'06 Jun'07 Dec'07 Jun'08 Dec'08 Jun'09

Fee income earned (Constant 2000 prices)

% of RSA Earnings : High Capacity provincial economies (Smoothed)

Section A: General Questions: Question 10Income distribution per province

Page 29: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Fee income earned : RSA vs EX-RSAR mill, 2000 prices (Annualised, smoothed)

Section A: General Questions: Question 10Income distribution per province

Page 30: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Client

Page 31: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

% S

ha

re

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Jun-07 8.9 12.7 28.8 11.4 38.2

Dec-07 9.1 9.6 25.9 10.7 44.6

Jun-08 9.7 15.8 21 12.8 40.7

Dec-08 7 17.7 27.9 10.4 37

Jun-09 6.4 10.7 23 9.8 50.2

Central Provincial Local Parastatals Private

Fee income earned by type of client% Share

Section A: General Questions: Question 11Local (SA) Income distribution per fee paying client type, during the past 6 months

Page 32: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

DE

C98

JUN

99

DE

C99

JUN

00

DE

C00

JUN

01

DE

C01

JUN

02

DE

C02

JUN

03

DE

C03

JUN

04

DE

C04

JUN

05

DE

C05

JUN

06

DE

C06

JUN

07

DE

C07

JUN

08

DE

C08

JUN

09

R m

ill, C

on

sta

nt

20

00

pri

ce

s

Central

Provincial

Local

Parastatals

Private

Fee income earned by type of clientR mill 2000 prices

(Annualised, smoothed - avg over 2 survey periods)

Section A: General Questions: Question 11Local (SA) Income distribution per fee paying client type, during the past 6 months

Page 33: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

Rm

, 20

00

pri

ce

s

Public

Private

Public 2 590 2 254 1 991 1 857 1 775 1 962 2 013 2 108 2 353 2 219 1 996 2 180 2 389 2 417 2 705 3 200 3 470 4 187 3979 5633 6556 4840

Private 1 371 1 324 1 394 1 379 1 553 1 595 1 627 1 634 1 471 1 440 1 513 1 366 1 290 1 407 1 437 1 941 2 498 2 587 3204 3866 3851 4870

DEC9

8

JUN9

9

DEC9

9

JUN0

0

DEC0

0

JUN0

1

DEC0

1

JUN0

2

DEC0

2

JUN0

3

DEC0

3

JUN0

4

DEC0

4

JUN0

5

DEC0

5

JUN0

6

DEC0

6

JUN0

7

DEC0

7

JUN0

8

DEC0

8

JUN0

9

Fee income earned by type of clientConstant 2000 prices

(Annualised, smoothed - avg over 2 survey periods)

Section A: General Questions: Question 11Local (SA) Income distribution per fee paying client type, during the past 6 months

Fees earned working in the public sector

fell by 14% y/y in the June 2009 survey

Page 34: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Competition

Page 35: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Competition in tendering

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

% R

espo

nden

ts,

com

petit

ion

very

kee

n to

fie

rce

Jun-07 0.00% 2.42% 22.11% 56.29% 19.18%

Dec-07 0.00% 3.01% 17.55% 55.57% 23.86%

Jun-08 0.00% 1.40% 20.80% 48.70% 29.10%

Dec-08 0.00% 0.00% 21.42% 42.28% 36.29%

Jun-09 0.22% 0.51% 62.73% 28.36% 8.18%

Very Low Low Keen Very Keen Fierce

Section B: Business Cycle Indicators - Question 16During Jan – June 2008 competition for work was (Tick selection)

Page 36: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Competition in tendering

80%

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

% R

espo

nden

ts,

com

petit

ion

Kee

n to

Fie

rce

% 99.9% 99.9% 97.5% 98.9% 98.0% 99.3% 99.0% 98.2% 99.1% 97.8% 98.7% 97.1% 99.5% 99.1% 97.6% 96.9% 98.6% 100% 99.30%

Jun-

00

Dec-

00

Jun-

01

Dec-

01

Jun-

02

Dec-

02

Jun-

03

Dec-

03

Jun-

04

Dec-

04

Jun-

05

Dec-

05

Jun-

06

Dec-

06

Jun-

07

Dec-

07

Jun-

08

Dec-

08

Jun-

09

Section B: Business Cycle Indicators - Question 16During Jan – June 2009 competition for work was (Tick selection)

Page 37: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Recruitment

Page 38: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Eng O Tech Technologist Technicians Support staff

Jun'06 Dec'06 Jun'07 Dec'07 Jun'08 Dec'08 Jun'09

% of Firms wanting to increase staff

New June 2005 survey

Page 39: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Engineering Skills Shortfall

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

De

c-9

7

Ju

n-9

8

De

c-9

8

Ju

n-9

9

De

c-9

9

Ju

n-0

0

De

c-0

0

Ju

n-0

1

De

c-0

1

Ju

n-0

2

De

c-0

2

Ju

n-0

3

De

c-0

3

Ju

n-0

4

De

c-0

4

Ju

n-0

5

De

c-0

5

Ju

n-0

6

De

c-0

6

Ju

n-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ju

n-0

8

De

c-0

8

Ju

n-0

9

% o

f re

sp

on

de

nts

% Wanting to increase engineers Difficulties

% that want to increase

% Experiencing difficulties

Page 40: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100E

ng

O T

ech

Tec

hn

olo

gis

t

Tec

hn

icia

ns

Oth

er

PD

I En

g

PD

I Tec

h

PD

I Tec

hn

o

% R

es

po

nd

en

ts

Jun'06 Dec'06 Jun'07 Dec'07 Jun'08 Dec'08 Jun'09

Recruitment problems

Page 41: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Training / Bursaries

Page 42: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Bursaries% of Salary / Wage bill

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

Dec

-96

Dec

-97

Jun

-98

Dec

-98

Jun

-99

Dec

-99

Jun

-00

Dec

-00

Jun

-01

Dec

-01

Jun

-02

Dec

-02

Jun

-03

Dec

-03

Jun

-04

Dec

-04

Jun

-05

Dec

-05

Jun

-06

Dec

-06

Jun

-07

Dec

-07

Jun

-08

Dec

-08

Jun

-09

Page 43: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Dec

-96

Jun

-98

Jun

-99

Jun

-00

Jun

-01

Jun

-02

Jun

-03

Jun

-04

Jun

-05

Jun

-06

Jun

-07

Jun

-08

Jun

-09

R m

ill, 2

000

pri

ces

BursariesR mill 2000 prices (Annualised)

Page 44: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

Jun

e 20

05

Dec

emb

er20

06

Jun

-06

Dec

-06

Jun

-07

Dec

-07

Jun

-08

Dec

-08

Jun

-09

Training (Salaries and Direct Training Costs) % of Payroll

Dat

a no

t ava

ilab

le

Large % of respondents did not complete information on salaries in December 2008 survey

Page 45: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

jun

e 20

05

Dec

emb

er20

05

Jun

-06

Dec

-06

Jun

-07

Dec

-07

Jun

-08

Dec

-08

Jun

-09

Training (Salaries and Direct Training Costs) Rand millions, Constant 2000 prices

Dat

a no

t ava

ilab

le

Large % of respondents did not complete information on salaries in December 2008 survey

Page 46: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%D

ec

-97

Ju

n-9

8

De

c-9

8

Ju

n-9

9

De

c-9

9

Ju

n-0

0

De

c-0

0

Ju

n-0

1

De

c-0

1

Ju

n-0

2

De

c-0

2

Ju

n-0

3

De

c-0

3

Ju

n-0

4

De

c-0

4

Ju

n-0

5

De

c-0

5

Ju

n-0

6

De

c-0

6

Ju

n-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ju

n-0

8

De

c-0

8

Ju

n-0

9

%Training (Direct costs only)

% of Payroll

Page 47: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100D

ec-9

7

Jun

-98

Dec

-98

Jun

-99

Dec

-99

Jun

-00

Dec

-00

Jun

-01

Dec

-01

Jun

-02

Dec

-02

Jun

-03

Dec

-03

Jun

-04

Dec

-04

Jun

-05

Dec

-05

Jun

-06

Dec

-06

Jun

-07

Dec

-07

Jun

-08

Dec

-08

Jun

-09

R m

ill 2

000

pri

ces

Training (Direct costs)Rand millions, Constant 2000 prices

Page 48: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

25000020

01

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Student enrolments in public higher education institutionsScience, Engineering & Technology

Increased by 39% between 2005 and 2007

214 341

Source: Department of Education

Page 49: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Capacity

Page 50: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

Jun-

98

Jan-

99

Jun-

99

Dec

-99

Jun-

00

Dec

-00

Jun-

01

Dec

-01

Jun-

02

Dec

-02

Jun-

03

Dec

-03

Jun-

04

Dec

-04

Jun-

05

Dec

-05

Jun-

06

Dec

-06

Jun-

07

Dec

-07

Jun-

08

Dec

-08

Jun-

09

Uti

lisa

tio

n

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Net

% c

han

ge

exp

ecti

ng

in

crea

se

Net % Change Utilisation

Industry Capacity UtilisationOf existing technical staff

Page 51: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Delayed Payments

Page 52: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Total fee income outstanding, by client Exceeding 90 days

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14C

entr

al

Pro

vin

cial

Lo

cal

Par

asta

tals

Pri

vate

% o

f T

ota

l fe

e i

nc

om

e e

arn

ed

Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09

Page 53: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Fee income outstanding for longer than 90 daysJune 2009

Page 54: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Fees outstanding for more than 90 daysR mill, annualised, nominal prices

Client R mill (annualised)current prices

Central government R53

Provincial R132

Local R419

State Owned Enterprises R15

Private sector R801

Foreign R136

Total R1557

Page 55: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Total fee income outstanding for longer than 90 days% of total fee income earned

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18D

ec-9

9

Jun-

00

Dec

-00

Jun-

01

Dec

-01

Jun-

02

Dec

-02

Jun-

03

Dec

-03

Jun-

04

Dec

-04

Jun-

05

Dec

-05

Jun-

06

Dec

-06

Jun-

07

Dec

-07

Jun-

08

Dec

-08

Jun-

09

% o

f T

ota

l fe

e i

nc

om

e e

arn

ed

Su

rvey a

men

ded

to

in

clu

de f

ore

ign

clien

ts

Page 56: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Inflation

Page 57: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Escalation trendsYear-on-Year % Change

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

An

nu

al C

han

ge,

%

% 8.7 6.9 5.8 5.3 5.7 9.2 5.9 1.4 3.4 4.6 6.6 11.6 7.13 5.6 5.3 5.4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Based on headline consumer inflation (CPI)Forecasts Industry Insight Economist Poll

Source: ABSA

CPI Basket Revised in January 2009

Page 58: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Consulting Engineering ProfessionLabour unit cost indicator: Year-on-Year % Change

(Smoothed)

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

LUC 15.2% 11.4% 22.5% 21.8% 9.2% -1.9% 3.7% 15.0% 8.0% 2.88% 4.30% 14.30% 22% 11.30% 5.30% 7.20% 9.50% 10.60% 9.10% 10.20% 17.80% 25.50%25.40%

J un-98

Dec-98

J un-99

Dec-99

J un-00

Dec-00

J un-01Dec-

01J un-02

Dec-02

J un-03

Dec-03

J un-04

Dec-04

J un-05

Dec-05

J un-06

Dec-06

J un-07

Dec-07

J un-08

Dec-08

J un-09

Page 59: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

CESA LABOUR COSTS ESCALATION VS ECSA FEES (Average)Index 2003 = 100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

ECSA 100 108.41 115.15 119.77 125.16 136.62

SAACE 100 111.26 119.25 131.88 145.35 182.48

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Source: ECSA Fee Scales, CESA MIS

Page 60: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Consulting Engineering ProfessionLabour unit cost indicator: Annual Average:

Year-on-Year % Change

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

LUC 22.2% 3.7% 9.4% 5.4% 9.3% 16.3% 6.30% 10% 9.65% 21.67%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Page 61: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Employment Profile

Page 62: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Typical Employment BreakdownJanuary – June 2009

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Professional Engineer Pr.Eng

Professional Architects

Professional Quantity Surveyors

Professional Other

Technologists Pr TEchENg

Technicians PrTechni

Unregistered technical staff: Engineer

Unregistered technical staff: Technologist

Unregistered technical staff: Technician

Unregistered technical staff: Other

Technical Assistants

Draughtspersons

Laboratory / Survey Assistants

Administration / Support staff

Total

Black Coloured Asian White

Page 63: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Typical Employment profile: January – June 2009

Total employment 19 596

Page 64: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

'Dec-03

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Black Coloured Asian White

Overall Employment Breakdown, by raceDecember 2003 – June 2009

Page 65: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Dec

-99

Jun

-00

Dec

-00

Jun

-01

Dec

-01

Jun

-02

Dec

-02

Jun

-03

Dec

-03

Jun

-04

Dec

-04

Jun

-05

Dec

-05

Jun

-06

Dec

-06

Jun

-07

Dec

-07

Jun

-08

Dec

-08

Jun

-09

%Employment profile: Black only (excluding Asian / Coloureds) representation of total employment

% Share of total employment

Page 66: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Professional Indemnity Insurance

-37% of firms pay less than 0,5% of their gross fee income on insurance- The average premium contribution was 0,6% of gross fee earnings in June 2009 Survey, with larger firms paying a lesser and smaller firms a higher contribution.-Over the last five years there have been on average 1,8 claims per firm, with an estimated average value per claim of R48 000. - the value of claims represented between 5% and 7% of total premiums paid over a five year period, yet some firms reported that up to 70% of their claims were not funded by the insurer. At an industry level this could be as much as 60%.-Limit of indemnity averaged 25% for the industry as a whole

Page 67: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Professional Indemnity InsuranceRisk profile

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

%

Dec-07 65.2% 30.3% 4.6%

Jun-08 58.73% 39.68% 1.59%

Dec-08 65.80% 34.20% 0%

Jun-09 71.40% 28.60% 0.00%

Low Medium High

In terms of firm’s perceptions of risk, close over 70% of respondents said that their firm had a low risk exposure, compared to almost 30% saying it was regarded as medium.

Page 68: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Equity / Ownership

Page 69: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0%

10%20%

30%

40%50%

60%

70%

80%90%

100%

JU

N0

6

DE

C0

6

JU

N0

7

DE

C0

7

JU

N0

8

DE

C0

8

JU

N0

9

%

Pty Ltd CC Partnership

Distribution by firm type

Page 70: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

JU

N0

6

DE

C0

6

JU

N0

7

DE

C0

7

JU

N0

8

DE

C0

8

JU

N0

9

Ownership / Equity: % Share of total employmentPTY, CC & Partnerships

7% of people employed in the Consulting Engineering Professions held a position that includes some level of ownership or equity (as at June 2009)

Page 71: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

JU

N0

6

DE

C0

6

JU

N0

7

DE

C0

7

JU

N0

8

DE

C0

8

JU

N0

9

Bla

ck

eq

uit

y a

s %

of

tota

l Eq

uit

y

Black equity as % of total equity

Black Ownership / Equity: % Share of total ownership / equity

PTY, CC & Partnerships

Black, including Asian & Coloured

-Women represented 6% of total ownership / equity compared to 4,3% in the December 2007 survey-Black women represented 3,5% of total ownership / equity compared to 2,8% in the December 2007 survey

Page 72: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%

Pty_exec

Pty_nonexec

Member of CC

Partner

%

Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09

Jun-09 14.20% 70% 20% 0%

Dec-08 13.50% 81.50% 36.80% 0%

Jun-08 18.5% 72.0% 41.2% 0.0%

Dec-07 16.9% 55.0% 24.1% 0.0%

Jun-07 21.9% 58.5% 32.5% 7.7%

Dec-06 25.3% 23.9% 29.0% 40.0%

Jun-06 25.6% 21.7% 31.7% 75.0%

Pty_exec Pty_nonexec Member of CC Partner

Black ownership / equity as % of total ownership / equity by type of company

June 2006 – December 2008

Black includes Asian and Coloureds

Page 73: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

Quality Management

Page 74: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

%

Dec-07 100.00% 74.20% 80% 62.50% 75.76%

Jun-08 100.00% 72.70% 94% 75% 84.00%

Dec-08 100% 93% 100% 75% 84.00%

Jun-09 100% 93% 100% 75.00% 93%

Large Medium Small Micro Total

Quality Management System

Page 75: January - June 2009

CESA Biannual Economic and Capacity Survey January – June 2009

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

%

Dec-07 66.70% 23.63% 30% 0% 24.60%

Jun-08 81.80% 36% 11% 0% 30.10%

Dec-08 87.50% 46.70% 20% 0% 42%

Jun-09 90% 20% 20% 12.50% 34.80%

Large Medium Small Micro Total

ISO 9001:2000 Certificate

Page 76: January - June 2009

Thank youwww.cesa.co.za

Tel: 011 463 2022