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January 2011 Edition
Table of Contents
Chapter 1
Background, Debt Policy & Management and its Objectives, Debt Instruments, Legal Basis
1. Background (1)
2. Background (2)
3. Debt Policy & Management and its Objectives
4. Debt Instruments (1)
5. Debt Instruments (2)
6. Debt Management: Legal Basis
Chapter 2
State Budget, Deficit and its Financing
7. State Budget, fiscal year 2010 & 2011
8. Fiscal deficit and State Budget Financing, 2000-2011
9. Global Deficit and Deficit in Various Countries, 2007-2010
10. Financing Development, 2008-2011
11. Debt Financing Development, 1998-2011
12. Realization of Government Securities, 2010
13. Program Loans, 2006-2010
14. Foreign Loans Financing 2001-2011
15. Project & Program Loans Drawing, 2006-2009
16. Project Loans Drawing, 2010
17. Project Loans Drawing, 2010 (chart)
Chapter 3
Debt Portfolio – Outstanding, Debt Maturity Profile, Government Securities Development and Foreign Loans
18. Government Debt Outstanding, 2001-2010
19. Trend of Government Debt Outstanding, 1998-2010
20. Debt Maturity Profile as of Dec 31th, 2010
21. Government Securities, December 2007 – Dec 31th, 2010
22. Foreign Loans by Creditor Types, 1998-2010
23. Foreign Loans by Creditor Types, 2001-2010
24. Foreign Loans by Sector, 2005-2010
25. Foreign Loans by Sector, 2005-2010 (chart)
26. Government Debt by Currency, 2001-2010
27. Government Debt by Currency, 2000-2010
28. Foreign Loans Drawing by Financing Type, 2006-2011
Table of Contents
Chapter 4
Debt Management’s Performance – Debt Performance Measurement and Comparison, Loan Disbursement, Government Debt Securities Re-profiling
29. Debt-to-GDP Ratio, 1999-2011
30. Debt-to-GDP Ratio – Countries Comparison, 1999-2010
31. Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Various Countries, 2008-2014
32. Maturity Profile of Tradable Government Securities, end of 2001 and Dec 31th, 2010
33. Debt Switching and Govt. Securities Buyback
34. Debt Swap to Reduce Debt
35. Restructurisation 2003
36. Restructurisation 2006
37. Restructurisation 2008: interest structure restructurisation SU-002 & SU-004
38. Foreign Loans Disbursement Performance, 1997 – Dec 31th, 2010
39. External Debt Service: Countries Comparison in 2008 and 2003-2008
40. Debt Service to International Reserve Ratio, 1999-2010
41. Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Countries Comparison in 2008 and 2003-2010
42. External Debt to GDP Ratio in 2008 and 2003-2008
43. Debt per capita in Various Countries, 2001-2010
44. Debt per capita: Countries Comparison in 2008 and 2003-2010
45. Debt to revenue ratio: Countries Comparison in 2008 and 2003-2008
46. Interest payment to GDP ratio in Various Countries, 1998-2007
Chapter 5
Costs of Borrowing – Cost of Fund, Yield Curve, External Debt’s Costs
47. Interest to revenue and expense ratio, 2001-2011
48. Interest to Total Debt ratio, 2001-2011
49. Interest payment to revenue ratio in Selected Countries, in 2008 and 2003-2008
Table of Contents
50. Interest Payment Realization 2002-2010
51. Program Loans: Cost Structure
52. Cost of Fund of Government Securities, Rupiah denominated
53. Yield Curve Trend of Govt. Debt Securities, foreign currency denominated
Chapter 6
Performance of Secondary Market for Govt. Securities – Trading Volume, Govt. Securities’ Ownership Structure
54. Average Daily Trading of Rp denominated Govt. Securities in Secondary, as of Dev 31 th 2010
55. Govt. Securities Ownership Structure by Bank and Non Bank, as of Dec 31 th 2010
56. Govt. Domestic Securities Ownership Structure by Investor Types
57. Govt. Domestic Securities Ownership share by Investor Types
58. Govt. Securities Ownership by foreign investor classified by maturity
59. Spread over 5 years US Treasury Bill
60. Spread over 10 years US Treasury Bill
61. Spread over Feb 38 US Treasury Bill
Chapter 7
Rating, Supreme Audit Agency Opinion, HIPICs and Conclusion
62. Indonesian Credit Rating
63. Indonesian Credit Rating Development (1)
64. Indonesian Credit Rating Development (2)
65. Indonesian Sovereign Rating – Performance Upgrading (1)
66. Indonesian Sovereign Rating – Performance Upgrading (2)
67. Supreme Audit Agency Opinion on Government’s Financial Report 2009
68. GDP per capita of HIPICs and Debt-relief Countries
69. Conclusion
Chapter 1Background, Debt Policy &
Management and its Objectives, Debt Instruments, Legal Basis
Background (1)
Debt management and policy is an integral part of fiscal policy which also constructs economic policy and management in general.
Ultimate objectives of economic management: Welfare creation and maintenance in the form
of: Reducing unemployment. Poverty alleviation. Spur more growth in the eonomy. Security and stability enhancement.
Debt is materialized if state budget is in deficit.
Deficit financing through debt has been perceived to be a standard approach in most of the countries in our modern world: Debt is primary tool to fill fiscal gap and to refinance matured debts; Debt refinancing will end up with new and better debt profile in term of risk and
fee. Government debt, in nominal term, has increased due to:
Legacy debts that need to be refinanced; Inevitable effect of currency and banking crises in 1997/1998:
Exchange rate depreciation; Banking bail out and recapitalization; Part of proceed coming from asset recovery used for
debt/banking recap securities repayment. Fiscal deficit financing is also a result of political process and of political decision
made in joint by the Government and the Parliament intended for: Supporting fiscal stimuli through development activity in infrastructure, agriculture, energy,
and another kind of “pump priming” project; Sustaining people’s welfare program such as PNPM, BOS, Jamkesmas, Raskin, PKH, subsidy; Supporting real sector’s activity for instance through tax incentive; Maintaining 20% of state budget to back up education sector; Enhancing army and defense system; Continuing bureaucratic reform.
Access to soft loans coming from multilateral donors has been restricted by: Indonesia is no longer considered as low income country; Upper limit of foreign loans can be received by an economy.
Background (2)
Debt Policy & Management and its Objectives
Objective
In the long run, debt policy and management are directed to minimize cost and maintain manageable level of risk.
Policy There is no such thing as conditionality imposed by donors; The Government only receives loans with long maturity & grace period and low cost; From 2004 onward, loan repayment has been set to be larger than its disbursement; Relying more on government securities in domestic currency and market:
Self reliance principle in fiscal deficit financing; Pursuing further deepening in domestic market by enlarging potential investor and
diversifying instrument; Help to spur efficiency in liquidity management by, for instance, issuance of money
market instrument. Gaining a larger access to international market (global bond, sukuk global, samurai bond) in
order to strengthen Government’s bargaining power in its role as a Borrower
Debt Instruments (1)
Government Loan consists of external and domestic debt: External Loan
World Bank, Asian Development Bank, Islamic Development Bank and bilateral donors (Japan, Germany, France, etc.) and Export Credit. Program Loan:
Intended for budget support and its disbursement is a function of the realization of stated policy matrix aiming the targets set up in MDGs scheme (poverty alleviation, education, and corruption eradication), people empowerment and also policy related with climate change and infrastructure development.
Project Loan :To support infrastructure project in transportation, energy etc and also poverty alleviation project.
Domestic Loan Government Regulation No. 2 Year 2006 on Loan/Grant Procurement
Procedure and Loan/Grant Channeling; Coming from state-owned enterprise, local government and local state-
owned enterprise; To finance policy related with the effort to support local industry,
infrastructure project for public service and investment generating revenue project.
Government securities (SBN) in local and foreign currency denominated, tradable and non-tradable, fixed and variable: Government Debt Securities/Surat Utang Negara (SUN)
T-Bills: short-term (up to 1 year); Govt. Bond (> 1 year)
Coupon Bond Tradable: ORI, FR/VR bond, Global bond Non tradable: SRBI for bank recap, bond issued for Bank
Indonesia’s recap and re-structurization of banking industry Zero coupon
Government Islamic securities/Sukuk (SBSN) in domestic and foreign currency denominated in the scheme of Ijarah, Musyarakah, Istisna, etc Islamic T-Bills; IFR/Ijarah Fixed Rate; Global Sukuk; SDHI/Indonesian Haj
Fund Sukuk.
Debt Instruments (2)
Debt Management: Legal Basis
Laws and Regulations: Law Number 19/2008 on Government Islamic Securities Law Number 24/2002 on Government Securities Government Regulation No. 2 Year 2006 on Loan/Grant
Procurement Procedure and Loan/Grant Channeling Government Regulation No. 54 Year2008 on Domestic Loan
Procurement Procedure and Domestic Loan Channeling
Setting up, among other things, good governance principle: Foreign debt cannot be separated from state budget and subject
to the approval from parliament A good policy coordination (MoF, Ministry of Planning & BI) is
essential for having sound debt management Close and efficient supervision on government securities’ trading
activities in secondary market by the stock market authority Accountability and transparency in whole range of debt
management span
Chapter 2State Budget, Deficit and
Its Financing
State Budget, Fiscal Year 2010 & 2011
[ Trillion IDR ]
APBN APBN-P Real Smt I % R-APBN APBN gap % prbhn.A. Total Revenue and Grants 949.7 992.4 443.7 44.7% 1,086.4 1,104.9 18.5 1.7%
I. Domestic Revenue 948.1 990.5 443.5 44.8% 1,082.6 1,101.2 18.5 1.7%1. Taxes 742.7 743.3 337.6 45.4% 839.5 850.3 10.7 1.3%2. Non Taxes 205.4 247.2 105.9 42.8% 243.1 250.9 7.8 3.2%
II. Grants 1.5 1.9 0.2 11.2% 3.7 3.7 - 0.0%#DIV/0! - #DIV/0!B. Expenditures 1,047.7 1,126.1 395.8 35.1% 1,202.0 1,229.6 27.5 2.3%
I. Central Govt. Expenditures 725.2 781.5 234.2 30.0% 823.6 836.6 13.0 1.6%1. Ministries/Agencies 340.1 366.2 104.5 28.5% 410.4 419.2 8.8 2.1%2. Non Ministries/Agencies 385.1 415.3 129.7 31.2% 413.2 417.4 4.2 1.0%ie:
a. Interest Payment 115.6 105.7 43.4 41.0% 116.4 115.2 (1.2) -1.0%- Domestic 77.4 71.9 30.3 42.1% 80.4 - External 38.2 33.8 13.1 38.8% 36.0
b. Subsidies 157.8 201.3 51.7 25.7% 184.8 187.6 2.8 1.5%II. Transfers to Regions 322.4 344.6 161.6 46.9% 378.4 393.0 14.6 3.8%#DIV/0! - #DIV/0!
C. Primary balance 17.6 (28.1) 91.3 -324.8% 0.7 (9.4) (10.2) -1401.3%#DIV/0! - #DIV/0!D. Surplus/ (Deficit) Budget (A-B) (98.0) (133.7) 47.9 -35.8% (115.7) (124.7) (9.0) 7.8%
% Deficit to GDP -1.6% -2.1% 1.6% -76.2% -1.7% -1.8% -0.1%#DIV/0! - #DIV/0!E. Financing 98.0 133.7 54.7 40.9% 115.7 124.7 9.0 7.8%
I. Debt 95.5 108.3 51.5 47.6% 123.5 127.0 3.6 2.9%II. Non Debt 2.5 25.4 3.1 12.3% (7.8) (2.4) 5.4 -69.4%
Financing Gap - - 102.6 - -
2010 2011
16
40
24
35
24
14 29
50
4
89
134
125
- -
(2)
(3)
7
23
36
57
86
99
10
8
12
7
10
10
7
1
(28)
(10)
(27) (2
4) (18) (16)
1 0
6
30
19
38
42
(1)
20
9
17
29
25
(2)
1.2
2.4
1.31.7
1.1
0.50.9
1.3
0.1
1.62.1
1.8
(2)
(1)
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
(40)
(20)
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010+ 2011++
[ % to GDP][ Trillion IDR ]
Deficit (Surplus) APBN SBN - net Loans - net Non Debt - net Deficit APBN, % to GDP (RHS)
Fiscal Deficit and State Budget Financing, 2000-2011
Source: MoF
Since 2005, government securities have been played role as primary instrument of financing
Refinancing strategy to achieve a better debt profile explains the surge of government securities in 2005-2010
Notes:State Budget 2000-2009 used PAN/LKPP-Audited figures+ State Budget (Revision) 2010
Notes:State Budget 2000-2009 used PAN/LKPP-Audited figures+ State Budget (Revision) 2010
Global Deficit and Deficit in Various Countries, 2007-2010
Source : JPMorgan as of June 2009Source : JPMorgan as of June 2009
Fiscal deficit in Indonesia is lower than other countries. Fiscal rule stated on Law Number 17/2003 has fixed upper limit of deficit in
the level of 3% of GDP. In consequence, additional debt to finance fiscal deficit is also limited.
2007 2008 2009 2010
Global (0.7) (2.6) (8.1) (6.4)
Developed (1.0) (3.1) (9.3) (7.4) US (1.2) (3.2) (10.6) (8.3) Japan (2.5) (6.4) (13.5) (6.7)
Euro Area (0.6) (1.9) (5.7) (6.3) UK (2.6) (6.2) (13.0) (13.1)
Emerging Market 0.5 (0.8) (3.9) (2.9) Latin America (0.2) - (2.7) 2.4 Brazil (2.2) (1.5) (2.7) (3.0) Mexico - - (2.5) (2.5)
Emerging Asia 0.8 (1.4) (3.7) (2.6) China 0.6 (0.4) (3.0) (2.0) Indonesia (1.3) (0.1) (1.6) (2.1)
CEEMA 0.6 - (5.4) (4.2) Hungary (5.0) (3.3) (3.8) (3.5) Poland (2.0) (3.9) (5.0) (4.0) Russia 5.4 4.1 (7.6) (5.0)
Notes:1. Nominal on % to GDP2. Specifically Indonesia, 2007 s.d. 2009 used LKPP figures, and 2010 used APBN-P figures
Financing Development, 2008-2011
Notes:State Budget 2008-2009 PAN/LKPP - Audited*) State Budget (Revision) 2010
Notes:State Budget 2008-2009 PAN/LKPP - Audited*) State Budget (Revision) 2010
[ Billion IDR]
2008 2009 2010*
Financing Need (115,579) (224,292) (297,695) Deficit (4,121) (88,619) (133,748)
Debt Repayment (103,768) (117,098) (124,677) SBN Repayment and Buyback (40,333) (49,067) (70,541) Debt Service (63,435) (68,031) (54,136)
Others (7,689) (18,575) (39,271) Domestic Bangking - - - Govt. Investement fund and Asset recovery (2,500) (12,395) (12,924) Contigency and Provisional fund - - (1,050) Natinal Education Development fund - - (1,000) Loan to PLN - - (7,500) Aid channeling (5,189) (6,181) (16,797)
Financing Source 195,529 248,257 297,695 Debt 176,468 207,200 249,818
Govt. securities, bruto 126,249 148,538 178,041 Pragman Loan 30,100 28,938 29,422 Project Loan 14,929 23,544 24,559 Aid Channeling 5,189 6,181 16,797 Domestic Loan - - 1,000
Non Debt 19,061 41,057 47,877 Privatization 82 - 1,200 Asset Management 2,820 - 1,200 Domestic Banking 16,159 41,057 45,477
Financing Gap 79,950 23,965 (0)
Govt. Securities Cash Flow, Netto 85,916 99,471 107,500
Foreign Loan Cash Flow, Netto (18,406) (15,550) (156)
Domestic Loan Cash Flow, Netto - - 1,000
Non Debt Cash Flow 11,372 37,392 25,403
R-APBN APBN gap % changes
Financing Need (276,085) (274,167) 1,917 -0.7%
Deficit (115,677) (124,657) (8,980) 7.8%
Debt Repayment (144,066) (133,542) 10,524 -7.3%SBN Repayment and Buyback (84,000) (74,000) 10,000 -11.9%Principal of foreign loans Repayment (48,076) (47,818) 258 -0.5%Aid Channeling (11,990) (11,725) 265 -2.2%
Non Debt Financing (16,342) (15,968) 374 -2.3%Domestic Banking - - - - Government Investation & BUMN Restructuritation (12,806) (13,932) (1,127) 8.8%National Education Development Fund (2,500) (1,000) 1,500 -60.0% Liability Insurance (1,036) (1,036) - -
Financing Source 276,085 274,167 (1,917) -0.7%
Debt 267,554 260,587 (6,967) -2.6%Govt. Securities issuence 209,484 200,654 (8,830) -4.2%Foreign Loans Drawing 57,070 58,933 1,863 3.3%Program Loan 17,685 19,813 2,128 12.0%
Reguler 10,230 12,358 2,128 20.8%Sector Program Loan 7,455 7,455 - -
Central Govt. Project Loan 27,396 27,396 - - Project Loan to Aid Channeling 11,990 11,725 (265) -2.2%
Domestic Loan Drawing 1,000 1,000 - -
Non Debt 8,530 13,580 5,050 59.2%Privatization 340 340 - - Asset Management 533 583 50 9.4%Domestic Banking 7,657 12,657 5,000 65.3%
Financing Gap 0 0 (0) -
Net Financing Cash Flow 115,677 124,657 8,980 7.8%Govt. Securities Cash Flow, Netto 125,484 126,654 1,170 0.9%
Foreign Loan Cash Flow, Netto (2,996) (609) 2,386 -79.7%
Domestic Loan Cash Flow, Netto 1,000 1,000 - -
Non Debt Cash Flow (7,811) (2,388) 5,424 -69.4%
2011[billion IDR]
Debt Financing Development, 1998-2011
Net additional foreign loan recorded as negative since 2004 Total debt financing was negative in 2003-2004 thanks to the
proceeds coming from asset recovery and SOE privatization
Notes:State Budget 2004-2009 PAN/LKPP - Audited*) State Budget (Revision) 2010 **) State Budget 2011
Notes:State Budget 2004-2009 PAN/LKPP - Audited*) State Budget (Revision) 2010 **) State Budget 2011
[ Trillion IDR ]
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011**
Govt. Securities (netto) 100.0 401.6 150.1 9.0 -1.9 -3.1 6.9 22.6 36.0 57.2 85.9 99.5 107.5 126.7Issuence, bruto 100.0 401.6 150.1 9.0 2.0 11.3 32.3 47.0 61.0 100.0 126.2 148.5 178.0 200.7
Domestic 100.0 401.6 150.1 9.0 2.0 11.3 23.4 22.5 42.6 86.4 86.9 101.7 136.6
Foreign Currency 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 24.5 18.5 13.6 39.3 46.8 41.4
Bond Redemption and Buyback 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3.9 -14.4 -25.5 -24.5 -25.1 -42.8 -40.3 -49.1 -70.5 -74.0
Loan (netto) 21.0 29.4 10.2 10.3 6.6 0.5 -28.1 -10.3 -26.6 -23.9 -18.4 -15.5 0.8 0.4Drawing, bruto 51.0 49.6 17.8 26.2 18.9 20.4 18.4 26.8 26.1 34.1 50.2 58.7 70.8 58.9
Program Loan 24.9 25.2 0.8 6.4 7.2 1.8 5.1 12.3 13.6 19.6 30.1 28.9 29.4 19.8
Project Loan 26.1 24.4 17.0 19.7 11.7 18.6 13.4 14.6 12.5 14.5 20.1 29.7 41.4 27.4
Project Loan to Aid Channeling - - - - - - - - - - - - - 11.7
Aid Channeling - - - - - - - - - - -5.2 -6.2 -16.8 -11.7
Principal repayment -30.0 -20.2 -7.6 -15.9 -12.3 -19.8 -46.5 -37.1 -52.7 -57.9 -63.4 -68.0 -54.1 -47.8Domestic Loan Drawing, bruto - - - - - - - - - - - - 1.0 1.0
Debt Financing, Total 121.0 431.0 160.3 19.2 4.7 -2.6 -21.2 12.3 9.4 33.3 67.5 83.9 108.3 127.0
Realization of Government Securities Issuance 2010 (as of Dec, 31th 2010)
Notes :- Assumption for exchange rate on issuance plan 2010 refers to APBN IDR 9,200/USD- Exchange rate of January 20, 2010 applies to the realization of International GDS IDR 9.275/USD
*) The Government plans to reduce the release of SBN, Rp. 15 5 trillion. According to this plan, the actual issuance of SBN 98.38% of target
APBN-P Realization % realization
to APBN-PRedemption & Buy back 2010 67,540,415 63,383,543 93.85%
SBN Netto (APBN) 107,500,400 86,798,880 80.74%
Buyback 3,000,000 729,437 24.31%
Inssuance Need 2010 178,040,815 150,911,860 84.76% *)
Government Debt Securities/GDS 123,945,000 83.87%
Domestic GDS 105,395,000
- ON 68,100,000
- ZC -
- SPN 29,295,000
- ORI 8,000,000
International GDS 18,550,000
Government Islamic Securities 26,966,860 100.00%
IFR 6,150,000
SBSN Ritel 8,033,860
SDHI 12,783,000
SBSN Valas -
Program Loans, 2006-2010
[ Million USD ]2006 2007 2008 2009
APBN APBN-P1 WB 1. Development Policy Loan (DPL) 1 s.d 7 600 600 750 750 600 600
2. Infrastructure Development Policy Loan (IDPL) 1 s.d 4 400 250 200 200 3. BOS-KITA Refinancing 1 sd. 2 47 553 200 164 4. PNPM Refinancing 744 544 5. Climate Change 200
Sub Total WB 600 600 1,197 1,553 1,744 1,708 2 ADB 1. State Audit Reform Sector Development Program (STARSDP)
2. Development Policy Support Program (DPSP) 1 s.d 6 200 200 200 200 200 3. Local Government Finance Reform and Governance Reform4. Infrastructure Reform Sector Development Program (IRSDP) 1-3 400 280 200 5. Capital Market Development Cluster Program (CMDCP) 1 dan 2 300 300 6. Poverty Reduction and MDG Acceleration Program 400 7. Local Government Finance Reform 350 8. Countercyclical Support Facility (CSF) 500
Sub Total ADB 600 900 830 500 200 700 3 JBIC/ JICA 1. Development Policy Loan (cofinancing dengan World Bank) 1 s.d 7 100 100 200 100 200
2. Infrastructure Reform Sector Development Program 1 dan 2 100 100 3. Indonesia Disaster Recovery and Management 200 4. Climate Change Program Loan 1 s.d 3 300 300 300 300 5. Economic Stimulus and Budget Support Loan 100 6. Others
Sub Total JBIC/ JICA 100 400 500 600 300 500 4 France Climate Change Program Loan 1 s.d 3 200 300 200 300
Sub Total France - - 200 300 200 300 5 IDB Liquid Funds 200
Sub Total IDB 200 - - - - -
TOTAL 1,500 1,900 2,727 2,953 2,444 3,208
Notes :DPL VI consists of $ 100 million and DPL VII of USD 100 million
2010No Lender Program Name
Notes:*) State Budget (Revision) 2010
Foreign Loans Financing, 2001-2011
26.2 18.9 20.4 18.4
26.8 26.1 34.1
45.0 52.5 54.0
58.9
-15.9 -12.3-19.8
-46.5-37.1
-52.7-57.9
-63.4-68.0
-54.1-59.5
10.3 6.60.5
-28.1
-10.3
-26.6 -23.9-18.4 -15.5
-0.2 -0.6
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011**
Foreign Loan Drawing, bruto Foreign Loan Principal Repayment Foreign Loan Financing (netto)
[ Tril
iun
Rupi
ah ]
[ Trillion IDR ]
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011**
Foreign Loan Drawing, bruto 26.15 18.89 20.36 18.43 26.84 26.11 34.07 45.01 52.48 53.98 58.93
Foreign Loan Principal Repayment (15.88) (12.26) (19.81) (46.49) (37.11) (52.68) (57.92) (63.44) (68.03) (54.14) (59.54)
Foreign Loan Financing LN (netto) 10.27 6.63 0.55 (28.06) (10.27) (26.57) (23.85) (18.42) (15.55) (0.16) (0.61)
Project & Program Loans Drawing, 2006-2010as of Dec 31th, 2010
[Trillion IDR]
Nominal % to APBN% to
APBN-P
13.53 19.90 30.28 28.57 24.44 29.51 29.05 118.9% 98.4%
ekuivalen on billion US$ 1.50 2.11 2.74 3.04 2.44 3.21 3.23
a. World Bank 5.50 5.66 12.91 14.65 17.44 16.63 15.34 88.0% 92.2%
b. A D B 5.51 8.47 9.17 5.06 2.00 6.44 6.39 319.7% 99.3%
c. JEPANG 0.90 3.77 4.87 6.07 3.00 3.68 4.59 153.0% 124.7%
d. PERANCIS - - 2.20 2.79 2.00 2.76 2.73 136.3% 98.8%
e. IDB 1.83 1.79 - - - - - 0.0% 0.0%
f. Lain-Lain - - - - - - - 0.0% 0.0%
12.54 14.46 14.93 23.54 24.52 24.56 20.50 83.6% 83.5%
ekuivalen on billion US$ 2.20 2.04 2.35 2.50 2.45 2.67 2.28
TOTAL 26.06 34.36 45.21 52.11 48.96 54.07 49.55 101.2% 91.6%
ekuivalen dlm miliar US$ 3.70 4.14 5.09 5.54 4.90 5.88 5.51
Notes :Nominal on Trillion IDR
2008
2010
APBN2009
Realization as of Dec 31th, 2010
APBN-P
2. Project Loan
INSTRUMENT 2006 2007
1. Program Loan
Notes :Preliminary figures used SAPSK 2010 source from Dit. SP DJA as of March 23, 2010
Project Loan Drawing, 2010as of Dec 31th
Million USD Billion IDR Million USD Billion IDR USD IDR
A D B 247.77 2,251.55 10.2% 9.3%
AUSTRALIA 33.44 310.75 1.4% 1.3%
GERMANY 29.07 265.60 1.2% 1.1%
I B R D 371.83 3,392.87 15.3% 14.0%
I D A 140.67 1,285.11 5.8% 5.3%
I D B 65.92 594.45 2.7% 2.4%
JAPAN 960.34 8,697.03 39.5% 35.8%
SPAIN 18.74 173.41 0.8% 0.7%
CHINA 92.31 835.67 3.8% 3.4%
FRANCE 33.93 310.49 1.4% 1.3%
KOREA 61.74 570.78 2.5% 2.3%
SINGAPORE 172.84 1,558.73 7.1% 6.4%
OTHERS 27.37 248.94 1.1% 1.0%
2,431.14 24,311.44 2,255.97 20,495.38 92.8% 84.3%
Budget 2010 * Realization as of Dec 31th, 2010 %CREDITOR COUNTRIES
Project Loan Drawing, 2010as of Dec 31th
[ Billion IDR ] [ % ]
9.3%
1.3% 1.1%
14.0%
5.3%2.4%
35.8%
0.7%3.4%
1.3% 2.3%
6.4%
1.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Drawing on Billion IDR % to Budget ( RHS )
Chapter 3Debt Portfolio – Outstanding,
Debt Maturity Profile, Government Securities
Development and Foreign Loans
Notes:+ very preliminary figure, as of Nov 30, 2010* Includes semi commercial** Some figures are semi commercial*** Includes commercial
Notes:+ very preliminary figure, as of Nov 30, 2010* Includes semi commercial** Some figures are semi commercial*** Includes commercial
Government Debt Outstanding, 2001-2010
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Nominal %
a. Loan (on billion US$) 58.90 63.74 68.91 68.59 63.09 62.02 62.25 66.69 65.02 68.10 36.5%
Bilateral *) 35.16 40.37 46.19 46.48 42.16 41.07 41.03 44.28 41.27 41.89 22.5%
Multilateral **) 20.68 20.61 19.98 19.48 18.78 18.84 19.05 20.34 21.53 23.13 12.4%
Comercial ***) 2.41 2.20 2.19 2.17 1.82 2.01 2.08 1.98 2.15 3.02 1.6%
Suppliers ***) 0.48 0.39 0.37 0.29 0.17 0.11 0.08 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.0%
Others ***) 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 - - - - - 0.0%
b. Govt. Securities (on billion US$) 63.52 73.30 76.64 71.29 70.51 82.34 85.26 82.78 104.20 118.39 63.5%
Foreign currency denominated - - - 1.00 3.50 5.50 7.00 11.20 15.23 18.02 9.7%
Domestic currency denominated 63.52 73.30 76.64 70.29 67.01 76.84 78.26 71.58 88.97 100.37 53.8%
Cental Government Debt, Total(on billion US$) 122.42 137.04 145.55 139.88 133.60 144.36 147.51 149.47 169.22 186.48 100.0%
Cental Government Debt, Total(ekuivalen on Trillion IDR)
1,273.18 1,225.15 1,232.04 1,299.50 1,313.29 1,302.16 1,389.41 1,636.74 1,590.66 1,676.68 100.0%
includes SBN domestic denominated(on trillion IDR)
660.65 655.31 648.75 653.03 658.67 693.12 737.13 783.86 836.31 902.43 53.8%
SBN foreign denominated (on tillion IDR)
- - - 9.29 34.41 49.61 65.93 122.64 143.15 161.97 9.7%
Loan foreign denominated (on trillion IDR)
612.52 569.84 583.30 637.18 620.22 559.43 586.36 730.25 611.20 612.28 36.5%
Exchange rate (IDR/US$1) 10,400 8,940 8,465 9,290 9,830 9,020 9,419 10,950 9,400 8,991
Des '10 +
Trend of Government Debt Outstanding, 1998-2010
Notes:+ very preliminary figure, as of Nov 30, 2010
Notes:+ very preliminary figure, as of Nov 30, 2010
Government securities issuance more importantly in domestic market is aimed to refinance maturing debt, balance foreign loan and strengthen domestic financial market
In most of the cases, outstanding of foreign loan increases when there is domestic exchange rate depreciation
In most of the cases, outstanding of foreign loan increases when there is domestic exchange rate depreciation
[ %]
Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010+
Loan 82% 47% 47% 48% 47% 47% 49% 47% 43% 42% 45% 38% 36%
Govt. Securities 18% 53% 53% 52% 53% 53% 51% 53% 57% 58% 55% 62% 64%
Central Govt. Debt, Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
100
502 652 661 655 649 662 693 743 803
906 979 1,064
453
438
583 613 570 583 637 620 559586
730 611612
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010+
Loan Govt. Securities
[ trillion IDR ]
Debt Maturity Profile as of 2010
Govt. obligation issued for bank recap (BI/SRBI-001)
0
6760 56 56 52
42 41 4755
68
23 25 21 1828
15 21 26
12
7
14 2034
0
4747 51 51
49
4439
3837
36
31 2521
1714
1210
9
7
6
55
4
3
2
1
1
1
1 1-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
20
33
20
34
20
35
20
36
20
37
20
38
20
39
20
40-
20
55
Loan Govt. Securities
[Trillion IDR]
Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Loan 0% 41% 44% 48% 47% 48% 51% 49% 44% 40% 34% 57% 50% 49% 48%Govt. Securities 0% 59% 56% 52% 53% 52% 49% 51% 56% 60% 66% 43% 50% 51% 52%
Year 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040Loan 33% 65% 41% 30% 100% 18% 39% 100% 3% 100% 11% 100% 5% 2% 100% 100%Govt. Securities 67% 35% 59% 70% 0% 82% 61% 0% 97% 0% 89% 0% 95% 98% 0% 0%
Government Securities Outstanding, December 2007 – Nov 30th, 2010
Government Securities Dec '07 Jun '08 Dec '08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Nov-10 31-Dec-10
A. Tradable 543,680 623,548 648,335 705,068 724,898 777,865 804,860 803,191
1. Rupiah Denominated 477,747 520,228 525,695 553,227 581,748 621,226 642,814 641,215
a. Govt. Debt Securities (SUN) 477,747 520,228 520,995 542,971 570,215 596,741 617,097 615,498 1) Surat Perbendaharan Negara 4,169 5,250 10,012 24,812 24,700 28,595 29,795 29,795 2) Zero coupon bond 10,500 19,023 11,491 11,451 8,686 2,680 2,512 2,512 3) Fixed Rate bond+) 294,453 330,338 353,558 361,625 393,543 422,571 441,995 440,396 4) Variable Rate bond 168,625 165,617 145,934 145,083 143,286 142,895 142,795 142,795
b. Govt. Islamic Securities (SBSN) - - 4,700 10,256 11,533 24,485 25,717 25,717 1) Fixed Rate Islamic bond++) - - 4,700 10,256 11,533 24,485 25,717 25,717
2. Foreign Denominated 65,933 103,320 122,640 151,841 143,150 156,639 162,046 161,976
a. Govt. bond (milllion US$) 7,000 11,200 11,200 14,200 14,200 16,200 16,200 16,200
b. Govt. Islamic bond (million US$) - - - 650 650 650 650 650
c. Govt. bond (million JPY) - - - - 35,000 35,000 95,000 95,000
B. Non Tradable 259,404 258,208 258,160 256,410 254,561 258,124 261,965 261,215
a. Promissory note to central bank 259,404 258,208 258,160 253,724 251,875 250,196 249,182 248,432
b. T-Bill - - - - - - - -
c. Govt. Islamic securities/ SDHI - - - 2,686 2,686 7,928 12,783 12,783
GOVT. SECURITITES, TOTAL (A +B) 803,084 881,756 906,495 961,478 979,459 1,035,989 1,066,825 1,064,406
Notes:
- Nominal on Billion IDR
- +) Includes ORI
- ++) Includes Sukuk Ritel
- Exchange rate (IDR/US$1) 9,419 9,225 10,950 10,225 9,400 9,083 9,013 8,991 - Exchange rate (IDR/J PY1) 101.70 102.58 107.13 110.29
Foreign Loans by Creditor Types, 1998-2010
*)
Notes:*) Including outstanding of other bilateral & multilateral donors**) Government securities excluded
[Billion USD]
Nmnl % Total
JAPAN 22.03 26.00 24.16 21.88 24.97 28.38 28.64 25.58 24.47 24.63 29.61 27.61 30.49 44.8%
ADB 6.13 7.21 7.67 8.04 8.65 8.77 9.04 9.16 9.41 10.18 10.87 10.89 11.15 16.4%
WORLD BANK 11.32 12.09 12.42 12.17 11.53 10.67 9.90 9.11 8.74 8.37 8.96 10.10 11.37 16.7%
Others*) 16.91 16.42 16.85 16.82 18.58 21.09 21.01 19.25 19.40 19.07 17.24 16.43 15.04 22.1%
TOTAL**) 56.39 61.73 61.10 58.90 63.74 68.91 68.59 63.09 62.02 62.25 66.69 65.02 68.04
200831 Des - 2010
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20092001Countries 1998 1999 2000
Foreign Loans by Creditor Types, 2000-2010
Notes:*) as of Dec 31th, 2010
Notes:*) as of Dec 31th, 2010
Multilateral donor (WB and ABD) and Japan has been acting in providing soft loan with long maturity and low cost
37% 39% 41% 42% 40% 40% 40% 45% 42% 45%
21% 18% 15% 14% 14% 14% 13%13% 16% 17%
14% 14% 13% 13% 15% 15% 16%16% 17% 16%
29% 29% 31% 31% 31% 31% 31% 26% 25% 22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*)
Others ADB World Bank Japan
Foreign Loans by Sector, 2005-2010
Notes :-As of December 31th, 2010-Economic Sector Grouping is based on the standard used by Bank Indonesia and Central Bureau of Statistics
Notes :-As of December 31th, 2010-Economic Sector Grouping is based on the standard used by Bank Indonesia and Central Bureau of Statistics
Source : MoF & BISource : MoF & BI
[ Million USD ]
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Farm, Agriculture, Foresty and Fisheries 1,846 1,755 1,641 1,615 1,784 2,016
Mining and Quarrying 424 623 662 804 776 837
Processing industry 2,593 2,387 2,415 2,659 2,291 2,218
Electricity, Gas and Water supply 7,232 6,607 6,157 6,838 5,473 5,818
Construction 10,669 10,277 10,049 11,145 12,251 12,871
Trade, Hotel and Restaurant 1,158 1,036 955 960 821 777
Transportation and Communication 3,477 3,144 2,897 2,723 2,368 2,226
Financial, Leasing and Financial services 6,593 7,103 7,913 8,768 8,723 9,635
Services 13,274 13,509 13,730 15,252 15,463 16,772
Others sector 15,827 15,580 15,833 15,926 15,072 14,927
TOTAL 63,094 62,021 62,253 66,689 65,021 68,099
Notes : As of December 31th, 2010Notes : As of December 31th, 2010
Foreign Loans by Sector, 2005-2010 (chart)
Source : MoF & BISource : MoF & BI
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Farm, Agriculture, Foresty and Fisheries Mining and Quarrying Processing industry Electricity, Gas and Water supply Construction
Trade, Hotel and Restaurant Transportation and Communication Financial, Leasing and Financial services Services Others sector
[ Million USD ]
Government Debt by Currency, 2001-2010
Notes:Nominal on billion*) Nominal IDR on Trilion Rupiah, **) Nominal on billion, ***) as of dec 31th ,2010
Notes:Nominal on billion*) Nominal IDR on Trilion Rupiah, **) Nominal on billion, ***) as of dec 31th ,2010
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010***
on Original Currencies
IDR*) 660.7 655.3 648.7 653.0 658.7 693.1 737.1 783.9 836.3 902.4
USD**) 28.0 27.9 24.4 24.2 26.4 27.5 28.4 32.8 37.1 40.5
JPY**) 2,751.2 2,855.5 3,242.8 3,137.4 3,184.4 3,066.0 2,941.9 2,820.5 2,713.8 2,689.8
EUR**) 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.0 8.1 7.8 7.2 6.7 6.0 5.4
Others
Ekuivalen on Billion US$
IDR 63.5 73.3 76.6 70.3 67.0 76.8 78.3 71.6 89.0 100.4
USD 28.0 27.9 24.4 24.2 26.4 27.5 28.4 32.8 37.1 40.5
JPY 21.0 24.0 30.3 30.5 27.0 25.8 25.9 31.2 29.4 33.0
EUR 7.1 8.6 10.5 10.9 9.6 10.2 10.5 9.5 8.6 7.1
Others 2.7 3.2 3.7 3.9 3.5 4.0 4.4 4.4 5.2 5.4
Total 122.4 137.0 145.5 139.9 133.6 144.4 147.5 149.5 169.2 186.4
Exchange rate IDR/US$1 10,400.00 8,940.00 8,465.00 9,290.00 9,830.00 9,020.00 9,419.00 10,950.00 9,400.00 8,991.00
Exchange rate JPY/US$1 131.00 118.75 107.11 102.74 117.83 119.01 113.39 90.33 92.42 81.53
Exchange rate EUR/US$1 1.12 0.95 0.79 0.73 0.84 0.76 0.68 0.71 0.70 0.75
-------------------------- Multiple Currencies --------------------------
53% 52% 53% 53% 50% 50% 53% 53%48% 53% 55%
21% 23% 20%17% 17% 20%
19% 19%22%
22% 21%
18% 17% 18%21% 22% 20% 18% 18% 21%
17% 17%
6% 6% 6% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5% 4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*)
Others EUR JPY USD IDR
Notes:*) as of Dec 31th, 2010
Notes:*) as of Dec 31th, 2010
Government Debt by Currency, 2000-2010
On average, the proportion of debt in the amount between 2000 to 2010 more than 50%, although in 2008 decreased slightly due to exchange rate depreciation due to the global financial crisis
Foreign Loans Drawing by Financing Type, 2006-2011
Notes :*) LKPP/PAN Realization figures **) APBN-P 2010 figures
Notes :*) LKPP/PAN Realization figures **) APBN-P 2010 figures
[ Trillion IDR] [ % ]
13.5
3
19.9
0
30.2
8
28.5
7
29.4
2
19.8
1
12.5
4
14.4
6
14.9
3 23.5
4
24.5
6 39.1
2
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2006* 2007* 2008* 2009* 2010** 2011**
PROGRAM LOAN PROJECT LOAN % PROGRAM LOAN (RHS) % PROJECT LOAN (RHS)[Trillion IDR]
Loans Instrument 2006* % 2007* % 2008* % 2009* % 2010** % 2011*** %
PROGRAM LOAN 13.53 52% 19.90 58% 30.28 67% 28.57 55% 29.42 55% 19.81 34%
PROJECT LOAN 12.54 48% 14.46 42% 14.93 33% 23.54 45% 24.56 45% 39.12 66%
TOTAL 26.06 34.36 45.21 52.11 53.98 58.93
Chapter 4Debt Management’s Performance – Debt
Performance Measurement and Comparison, Loan Disbursement,
Government Debt Securities Re-profiling
85%89%
77%
67%61%
57%
47%
39%35% 33%
28% 27% 26%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011**
[ % ][ trillion IDR ]
Debt Outstanding GDP Debt ratio to GDP (RHS)
Debt to GDP Ratio, 1998-2010
Source : MoF & BI, reprocessed
Additional debt has helped to spur more growth in the economy. As a result, debt-to-GDP ratio has significantly decreases from 57% at the end of 2007 to around 32% in 2009. The ratio in 2009 is far better than in the pre-crisis period of the late 1990s.
Notes:PAN/LKPP – Audited Realization figures*) very preliminary, used APBN-P 2010 assumption.
Debt Service Ratio = Interest + Amortization
Notes:PAN/LKPP – Audited Realization figures*) very preliminary, used APBN-P 2010 assumption.
Debt Service Ratio = Interest + Amortization
[ Trillion IDR ]
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011**
438 583 613 570 583 637 620 559 586 730 611 612 612 502 652 661 655 649 662 693 743 803 906 979 1,087 1,214 940 1,234 1,273 1,225 1,232 1,300 1,313 1,302 1,389 1,637 1,591 1,699 1,826
LOANGovt. SecuritiesTotal
54.9
198.8
25.5
62.2
50.7
121.3
82.8
60.3
20
60
100
140
180
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Argentina Jepang Indonesia Filipina Turki Italia Inggris Amerika Serikat
Debt to GDP Ratio – Countries Comparison, 1999-2010
Indonesia is one of the top performers in the non investment grade peer group (Argentina, the Philippines and Turkey) and this still holds even if one compares it with advanced countries such as US, UK, Japan and Italy.
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
Debt to GDP Ratio in Various Countries, 2008-2014
Source : International Monetary Fund, “The State of Public Finances; Outlook and Medium-Term Policies After the 2008 Crisis”
Indonesia is in the list of the Emerging Market G-20 countries
Taking a look at the additional debt in developed economies, they accumulate more debt than their developing counterpart
2008f 2009f 2010f 2014f
Brazil 65.4 64.7 62.9 54.1
Germany 68.7 76.1 80.1 77.2
India 80.6 82.7 82.9 71.6
J apan 202.5 217 225.1 222.3
United Kingdom 50.4 61 68.7 76.2
United States 68.7 81.2 90.2 99.5
G - 20 65.5 72.5 76.7 76.8
Advanced G - 20 Countries 83.2 93.2 99.8 103.5
Emerging Market G - 20 Countries 35.7 37.6 37.8 32
[Trillion IDR]
Maturity Profile of Tradable Government Securities, in the end of 2001 and Nov 30th, 2010
Notes:Government Securities/SBN consist of Government Debt Securities/SUN (2001 & 2009), and Government Islamic Securities/Sukuk (2009)
Notes:Government Securities/SBN consist of Government Debt Securities/SUN (2001 & 2009), and Government Islamic Securities/Sukuk (2009)
Since 2002, the GoI has conducted reprofiling strategy to improve government debt securities’s maturity profile, hence reducing refinancing risk
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
35
20
37
20
38
as of 31 Dec, 2010 End of 2001
Debt Switching and Buyback
Buyback : startegy to stabilize market and reduce debt outstanding
Debt Switching : strategy to reduce refinancing risk
YearAuction
FrequencySeries to be
SwitchedTenor of Series to be
SwitchedOffered Tenor
Volume of Bid Received
(billion IDR)
Volume of Bid Accepted
(billion IDR)
2005 1 x 9 series < 1 year s.d. 4 years 15 years 7,721 5,673
2006 12 x 7 s.d. 21 series < 1 year s.d. 5 years 5 s.d. 19 years 54,177 31,179
2007 9 x 12 s.d. 21 series < 1 year s.d. 6 years 11 s.d. 20 years 30,681 15,782
2008 2 x 21 s.d. 31 series < 1 year s.d. 4 years 14 s.d. 15 years 7,490 4,571
2009 6 x 24 s.d. 28 series < 1 year s.d. 5 years 12 s.d. 15 years 8,663 2,938
as of 31 Dec, 2010 6 x 11 s.d. 28 series < 1 year s.d. 8 years 10 s.d. 21 years 8,349 3,920
Total 117,081 64,063
YearAuction
FrequencySeries to be
BuybackTenor of Series to be
Buyback
Volume of Bid Accepted
(billion IDR)
2003 2 x 4 s.d. 7 series 1 year s.d. 3 years 8,127
2004 1 x 5 series 3 years s.d. 5 years 1,962
2005 4 x 2 s.d. 8 series < 1 year s.d. 4 years 5,158
2007 2 x 11 s.d. 13 series <1 year s.d. 5 years 2,859
2008 3 x 4 s.d. 8 series < 1 year s.d. 19 years 2,375
2009 1 x 4 series < 1 year 8,528
as of 31 Dec, 2010 13 x 1 s.d. 11 series < 1 year s.d. 17 years 3,201
Total 32,210
Debt Swap to Reduce Debt
Debt swap agreement with several donors has successfully reduced debt outstanding in the amount of EUR 149.3 million and realization in the amount of EUR 82.7 million, USD 46.2 million and realization in the amount of USD 18.8 million, AUD 75 million and realization in the amount AUD 0
Title1 2 3
Debt Swap I Elementary Education EUR 12.8 EUR 25.6 EUR 25.6
Debt Swap II Junior Secondary Education EUR 11.5 EUR 23.0 EUR 0.0
Debt Swap IIIa Financial Assistance for Environmental Investements for Micro and Small Enterprises Project
EUR 6.3 EUR 12.5 EUR 3.2
Debt Swap IIIb Strengthening the Development of National Parks in Fragile Ecosystems
EUR 6.3 EUR 12.5 EUR 0.0
Debt Swap IV School Reconstruction and Rehabilitation in Earthquake Area in Yogyakarta and Central Java
EUR 10.0 EUR 20.0 EUR 20.0
Debt Swap V Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tubercolosis and Malaria (GFATM)
EUR 25.0 EUR 50.0 EUR 30.0
EUR 5.7 EUR 5.7 EUR 3.9
USD 24.2 USD 24.2 USD 16.7
USA Debt Development Swap Tropical Forest Conservation Act/TFCA USD 20.0 USD 22.0 USD 2.1
Australia Debt Swap Debt2Health AUD 37.5 AUD 75.0 AUD 0.0
EUR 77.5 EUR 149.3 EUR 82.7
USD 44.2 USD 46.2 USD 18.8
AUD 37.5 AUD 75.0 AUD 0.0
Country Debt SwapProject Cancelation
Amount Commitment Realization
TOTAL
4 5 6
Germany
Italy Debt Swap I Housing and Setlement
Agreement between the Government and Bank Indonesia on August 1, 2003 on the settlement of liquidity support to banking industry (BLBI) and financial relationship between the Government and Bank Indonesia Agreed BLBI amounting Rp 144.536.094.294.530
SU-001 Rp 80.000.000.000.000 SU-003 Rp 64.536.094.294.530
Both series reissued with new single series SRBI-01/MK/2003 Rp 144.536.094.294.530 starting 1st August 2003.
Repayment arranged under burden sharing scheme: In the case where BI’s monetary liabilities are greater than 10%, the
Government will use its surplus accrued to repay remaining principal of SRBI-01
If it is lower than 3%, the Government shall pay a charge until BI’s monetary liabilities filled up to that 3% figure.
Interest Rate of SRBI-01/MK/2003: 0,1% per annual (fixed, semi annual)
Restructuring 2003
SU-002/MK/1998: Date of issuance: October 23, 1998; Nominal: Rp20.000.000.000.000,- Principal is indexed to inflation, on a yearly basis. After indexation, of 3% interest payment as made
on semi-annual basis calculated from principal. Principal amortization is in semi-annual basis
starting from 1st October 2003 to 1 April 2018.
SU-004/MK/1999: Date of issuance : May 28, 1999; Nominal: Rp53.779.500.000.000,- Principal is indexed to inflation, on a yearly basis. After indexation, of 3% interest payment as made
on semi-annual basis calculated from principal. Principal amortization is in semi-annual basis
starting from 1st June 2003 to 1st December 2018.
Interest arrear and indexation SU-002 & SU-004 IDR54.862.150.308.421: Interest arrear: Rp16.929.470.080.766 Indexed to inflation: Rp37.932.680.227.655
Restructuring 2006
Pre-restructuring
SU-002/MK/1998: Nominal: Rp20.000.000.000.000,- 1% interest will be repaid in semi-annual
basis. Principal was amortized semi-annually,
starting from 1st April 2025 (no indexation to inflation applies).
SU-004/MK/1999: Nominal: Rp53.779.500.000.000,- 3% interest will be repaid in semi-annual
basis. Principal was amortized semi-annually,
starting from 1st December 2025 (no indexation to inflation applied).
SU-007/MK/2007 Nominal: 54.862.150.308.421 Non tradable, 0.1% interest per annum Principal was installed exponentially by a
cash or tradable SUN until 2025.
Post-restructuring
Based on Its report on Central Govt Expenditure dated October 16-28, 2008, Working Committee agreed among others that SU-002 and SU-004 will be restructured in 2009 with interest rate applied was 0.1% or with benchmark and terms condition of SRBI-01.
Ministry of Finance and BI agreed that interest rate of both SU-002 and SU-004 will be reduced to 0.1% from 1% and 3% respectively, starting on 1st January 2009 .
Restructuring 2008: Restructuring for Interest Rate
of SU-002 & SU-004
•Amortization of SU-007 was conducted since 2007•Amortization of SU-002 and SU-004 will be conducted in 2010
SU and SRBI Positionas of Dec 31th, 2010
Series Issued Maturity Nominal
SU-002/MK/1998 03-Oct-98 2010 - 2025 19,420,583,064,850.00
SU-004/MK/1999 28-May-99 2010 - 2025 52,315,360,704,352.00
SRBI-01/MK/2003 07-Aug-03 01-Aug-33 126,697,947,827,429.00
SU-007/MK/2007 01-Jan-06 2007 - 2025 49,998,285,712,461.00
248,432,177,309,092.00 TOTAL
Undisbursed loans has lessened showing efficiency improvement of the use of the proceeds of foreign loan Disbursement performance increases as project readiness criteria has been set up and correctly applied.
In addition, project monitoring and evaluation has been installed in foreign loan management
Foreign Loans Disbursement Performance, 1998 – Dec31th, 2010
Net commitment = the agreed loan amount; disbursement = disbursed of loan.
34.6%29.8%
25.2% 21.4%17.1% 13.9%
6.2% 6.0% 5.4% 5.3% 5.8% 5.3% 5.2%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
50
100
150
200
Net Commitment Disbursement Undisbursed % Undisbursed (RHS)
[Billion USD]
[Billion USD]
Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Net Commitment 171.8 178.4 166.4 157.3 166.2 178.4 172.2 164.5 170.7 181.7 201.1 205.5 219.4
Disbursement 112.3 125.3 124.5 123.6 137.7 153.5 161.6 154.6 161.4 172.1 189.6 194.7 208.0
Undisbursed 59.5 53.1 42.0 33.7 28.5 24.8 10.6 9.9 9.3 9.7 11.6 10.8 11.4
External Debt Service: Countries Comparison in 2008
and 2003-2008
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Malaysia
Thailand
South Africa
Poland
Chile
Indonesia
India
Philippines
Colombia
Brazil
Turkey
External Debt Service, 2008(In percent of exports)
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10
Brazil
Colombia
Indonesia
Thailand
Chile
Turkey
Poland
Malaysia
South Africa
Philippines
India
External Debt Service, changes 2003-08(in percent of exports)
Indonesia has shown a moderate level of external debt service to export ratio and was on the third rank in reducing the ratio (in 2003-2008) while Brazil and Colombia were on the first and second.
Sumber: IMF
Since 2004, debt service to international reserve ratio has been continuing to decrease. This concern with liquidity improvement and ability to endure (external) shock
Since 2004, debt service to international reserve ratio has been continuing to decrease. This concern with liquidity improvement and ability to endure (external) shock
Debt Service to International Reserve Ratio, 1999-2010
Notes:* Preliminary ** Very preliminary
Notes:* Preliminary ** Very preliminary
21.6%
11.5%
15.2%13.8% 13.4%
21.7%
18.1%
20.6%
18.0%16.8%
17.9%
12.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009** 2010***
Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Countries Comparison in 2008 and 2003-2010
Again, Indonesia is one of the top performers in reducing the level of debt to GDP ratio both in the group developing and developed economiesPublic Debt, 2010
(in percent of GDP)Public Debt, changes 2003-2010
(in percent of GDP)
0 100 200
Afrika SelatanAmerika Serikat
AustraliaBrasilChile
FilipinaIndia
IndonesiaInggrisJepang
KolombiaMalaysiaPolandiaThailand
Turki
-30 -10 10 30 50
Afrika SelatanAmerika Serikat
AustraliaBrasilChile
FilipinaIndia
IndonesiaInggrisJepang
KolombiaMalaysiaPolandiaThailand
Turki
Source: IMF
Figure 1. External and Public Debt
10 20 30 40 50 60
Brazil
India
Colombia
Thailand
Malaysia
South Africa
Indonesia
Philippines
Turkey
Chile
Poland
External Debt, 2008(In percent of GDP)
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10
Philippines
Indonesia
Brazil
Colombia
Malaysia
Chile
Thailand
Turkey
India
Poland
South Africa
External Debt, changes 2003-08(In percent of GDP)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Malaysia
Thailand
South Africa
Poland
Chile
Indonesia
India
Philippines
Colombia
Brazil
Turkey
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10
Brazil
Colombia
Indonesia
Thailand
Chile
Turkey
Poland
Malaysia
South Africa
Philippines
India
External Debt to GDP Ratio in 2008 and 2003-2008
A moderate and manageable level of external debt to GDP ratio is also another significant achievement resulted from an effective debt management and policy
Source: IMF
Debt per capita in China and India is certainly much lower than Indonesia due to their demographic factor
Brazil, a rating-investment-grade country, shows a higher debt per capita than Indonesia which is in fact a non-investment-grade country
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
Debt per Capita in Various Countries, 2001-2010
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Brazil Indonesia Filipina Turki Cina India Italia [RHS]
Debt per capita: Countries Comparison in 2008 and 2003-2008
Indonesian debt per capita is among the lowest and it is considered to fluctuate insignificantly
Public Debt per Capita, 2010(in US$)
Public Debt per Capita, changes 2003-2010
(in US$)
0 10000 20000 30000
Afrika SelatanAmerika Serikat
AustraliaBrasilChile
FilipinaIndia
IndonesiaInggris
KolombiaMalaysiaPolandiaThailand
Turki
0 5000 10000 15000
Afrika SelatanAmerika Serikat
AustraliaBrasilChile
FilipinaIndia
IndonesiaInggris
KolombiaMalaysiaPolandiaThailand
Turki
Source: IMF
Debt to Revenue Ratio: Countries Comparison in 2008 and 2003-2008
10 110 210 310 410 510 610
ChileAustralia
South AfricaColombia
PolandUK
ThailandBrazil
IndonesiaMalaysia
TurkeyUS
PhilippinesIndia
Japan
Public Debt, 2008(In percent of revenues)
-190 -140 -90 -40 10 60
IndonesiaPhilippine
TurkeyIndia
ColombiaSouthChileBrazil
ThailandMalaysiaAustralia
PolandUS
UK Japan
Public Debt, changes 2003-08(In percent of revenues)
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
ChileIndonesia
IndiaPhilippines
ThailandColombia
South AfricaMalaysia Australia
TurkeyBrazil
Poland UKUS
Public Debt per Capita, 2008(In US$)
-500 4500 9500
ChileIndonesia
PhilippinesSouth Africa
ThailandIndia
AustraliaColombia
TurkeyMalaysia
BrazilPoland
USUK
Public Debt per Capita, changes 2003-08(in US$)
Debt to revenue ratio in Indonesia has been stabilized to a moderate level and recorded the fastest decrease
Source: IMF
Interest Payment to GDP Ratio in Various Countries, 1998-2007
Interest payment to GDP ratio of Indonesia is better than countries like Turkey and The Philippines and rating-investment-grade countries such as Brazil and Italy.
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Japan Indonesia Philippines Turkey Italy United Kingdom United States
Chapter 5 Costs of Borrowing – Cost of Fund, Yield
Curve, External Debt’s Costs
29.0
%
29.4
%
19.2
%
15.5
%
13.2
%
12.4
%
11.3
%
9.0
%
11.0
%
10.6
%
10.4
%
25.5
%
27.2
%
17.4
%
14.6
%
12.8
%
11.9
%
10.5
%
9.0
%
10.0
%
9.4
%
9.4
%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011**
as a share of revenue as a share of expense
Interest To Revenue and Expense Ratio, 2000-2010
Cost of fund is continuing to be more efficient
Notes:Realization figures 2000-2008 based on APBN 2000-2008 PAN/LKPP-Audited * projection figures based on APBN (revision) 2010
[Billion IDR]
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011**Revenue 300,600 298,527 340,928 403,105 493,919 636,153 706,108 981,609 848,763 992,399 1,104,902 Expense 341,563 322,180 376,505 427,177 509,633 667,129 757,650 985,731 937,398 1,126,147 1,229,558 Debt Service Payment 87,142 87,667 65,351 62,486 65,200 79,083 79,806 88,430 93,782 105,650 115,209
Interest to Total Debt 2001-2011
Notes:Realization figures 2000-2008 based on APBN 2000-2008 PAN/LKPP-Audited * projection figures based on APBN (revision) 2010** projection figures based on APBN 2011
Notes:Realization figures 2000-2008 based on APBN 2000-2008 PAN/LKPP-Audited * projection figures based on APBN (revision) 2010** projection figures based on APBN 2011
6.8% 7.2%
5.3% 4.8% 5.0%6.1%
5.7% 5.4% 5.9% 6.2% 6.3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2001 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011**
Total Debt Interest Debt Payment Ratio (RHS)
[ Trillion IDR ] [ % ]
[Trillion IDR]
2001 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011**
Total Debt 1,273.18 1,225.15 1,232.04 1,299.50 1,313.29 1,302.16 1,389.41 1,636.74 1,590.66 1,699.00 1,826.04
Interest Debt Payment 87.14 87.67 65.35 62.49 65.20 79.08 79.81 88.34 93.78 105.65 115.21
Interest Payment To Revenue Ratio In Selected Countries,
In 2008 and 2003-2008
-500 4500 9500
ChileIndonesia
PhilippinesSouth Africa
ThailandIndia
AustraliaColombia
TurkeyMalaysia
BrazilPoland
USUK
0 10 20 30
TurkeyIndia
PhilippinesBrazil
ColombiaUS
Indonesia South Africa
JapanMalaysia
UKPoland
ChileAustralia
Public Debt Interest Payment, 2008(In percent of revenues)
-35 -25 -15 -5 5
TurkeyPhilippinesIndonesia
IndiaBrazil
South Africa Chile
Malaysia Colombia
PolandJapan
AustraliaUSUK
Public Debt Interest Payment, changes 2003-08(In percent of revenues)
Source: IMF
Interest payment to revenue ratio of Indonesia is on moderate level while Turkey and the Philippines have in a significant way brought down the ratio even further
Interest Payment Realization 2002-2010
Notes: *) figures based on APBN (revision) 2010Notes: *) figures based on APBN (revision) 2010
29% 29% 37% 35% 31% 32% 32% 32% 32%
71% 71% 63% 65% 69% 68% 68% 68% 68%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 *
Interest payment of External Loan Interest payment of Domestic Loan
Nml % Nml % Nml % Nml % Nml % Nml % Nml % Nml % Nml %87.70 100.00 65.40 100.00 62.40 100.00 65.20 100.00 79.10 100.00 79.80 100.00 88.60 100.00 93.78 100.00 105.65 100.00
a. Interest payment of Domestic Loan
62.30 71.04 46.40 70.95 39.60 63.46 42.60 65.34 54.90 69.41 54.10 67.79 59.90 67.61 63.76 67.98 71.9 68.01
b. Interest payment of External Loan
25.40 28.96 19.00 29.05 22.80 36.54 22.60 34.66 24.20 30.59 25.70 32.21 28.70 32.39 30.03 32.02 33.8 31.99
20062005[ trillion IDR ]
Loan Interest Payment
200420032002 2010*200920082007
Program Loans: Cost Structure
Notes:As of Nov 30, 2010* ADB loans normally impose commitment fee while World Bank requires so called front-end fee** Loan proceeds not to directly finance the climate change project
Tenor Interest Fee*Asian Development Bank1. Development Policy Support Program (DPSP) 5 15.0 LIBOR + 0.2% 0.15%2. Capital Market Development Cluster 15.0 LIBOR + 0.2% 0.15%
World Bank1. Development Policy Loan 6 24.5 LIBOR + 0.05% 0.25%2. Biaya Operasional Sekolah (BOSKITA) 25.0 LIBOR + 0.05% 0.25%3. Infrastructure Development Policy Loan 3 24.5 LIBOR + 0.05% 0.25%
Japan (JBIC/J ICA)1. Climate Change Program 15.0 0.15% -2. Economic Stimulus and Budget Support Loan 15.0 J PY LIBOR -3. Infrastructure Reform Sector Development 15.0 0.70% -4. Development Program Loan 5 15.0 0.70% -
France1. Climate Change Program 15.0 EURIBOR - 0.3% -
Creditor/ ProgramTrem & Condition
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y10Y 15Y 20Y 30Y
31 Dec '10 Dec '09 J un '09
[in percentage]
Yield Curve of Domestic Government Securities
Declining cost of fund of Domestic Government Securities reflects increasing market confidence as a response of prudent fiscal policy and debt management
[Procentage]
Tenor 31-Dec-10 Dec '09 Jun '09
1Y 5.36 6.72 7.66
2Y 5.82 7.61 8.36
3Y 6.27 8.23 9.08
4Y 6.34 8.75 9.50
5Y 6.78 8.80 9.81
6Y 6.96 9.06 10.10
7Y 7.16 9.24 10.31
10Y 7.57 10.04 11.05
15Y 8.78 10.64 11.96
20Y 9.24 10.72 12.18
30Y 9.68 10.97 12.30
9.2189.617
9.949.538
4.2994.486
4.9765.1865.3285.401
6.842
2.703
3.284
3.7074.016
4.2224.5254.595
6.098
10.58
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31-Dec-08
31-Dec-09
31-Dec-10
Yield Curve of Indonesian Global Bond
[Procentage]
Chapter 6Performance of Secondary Market for
Govt. Securities – Trading Volume, Govt. Securities’ Ownership Structure
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
[ Frequency][ Trillion IDR]
Volume Average Daily Volume per Year Frequency - RHS
Average Daily Trading of Domestic Govt. Securities,
as of Dec 31, 2010
Until 2007, the increasing trend of average daily trading showed a better market liquidity. Global financial crisis in 2008 has significantly reduced trading activities. However, the average volume remains higher than 2005’s figure when the crisis hit.
Until 2007, the increasing trend of average daily trading showed a better market liquidity. Global financial crisis in 2008 has significantly reduced trading activities. However, the average volume remains higher than 2005’s figure when the crisis hit.
-
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Au
g'0
4
Oc
t'0
4
De
c'0
4
Fe
b'0
5
Ap
r'0
5
Ju
n'0
5
Au
g'0
5
Oc
t'0
5
De
c'0
5
Fe
b'0
6
Ap
r'0
6
Ju
n'0
6
Au
g'0
6
Oc
t'0
6
De
c'0
6
Fe
b'0
7
Ap
r'0
7
Ju
n'0
7
Au
g'0
7
Oc
t '0
7
De
c '0
7
Fe
b '0
8
Ap
r'0
8
Ju
n'0
8
Au
g'0
8
Oc
t'0
8
De
c'0
8
Fe
b'0
9
Ap
r'0
9
Ju
n'0
9
Au
g'0
9
Oc
t'0
9
De
c'0
9
Fe
b'1
0
Ap
r'1
0
Ju
n'1
0
Au
g'1
0
Oc
t'1
0
De
c'1
0
Trillion IDR
BANK NON-BANK % foreign to Total - RHS
Government Securities Ownership - Bank and Non Bank,
as of Dec 31, 2010
Notes:Non-Bank including Government institution
Notes:Non-Bank including Government institution
The more diversified investor is demonstrated by the shrinkage of bank ownership and the augmentation of non-bank, foreign and retail investor
Increasing offshore ownership is a sign of better market confidence
Domestic Government Securities Ownership (absolute)
Notes:• Nominal in trillion IDR• Included SBSN ownership• Foreign holders include banks, financial institution, etc;• Others include individuals, corporates, foundations, etc.*) Include SUN repo transaction to BI, since February 8, 2008
Dec '07 Dec'08 Dec'09 Mar'10 Jun'10 Aug'10 Sep'10 Oct'10 Nov'10 31-Dec-10
BANK 268.65 258.75 254.36 237.74 232.67 230.92 233.96 225.19 228.04 217.27
State Own Bank recap 154.67 144.72 144.19 141.03 137.79 136.84 137.55 135.32 134.30 Private Bank recap 72.63 61.67 59.98 54.32 55.07 55.00 56.23 52.70 56.11 Non Bank recap 35.37 45.17 42.40 36.78 35.46 34.09 35.10 32.70 33.36 BPD Recap 5.97 6.50 6.02 3.62 1.68 1.84 1.90 1.58 1.48 Syariah Bank 0.69 1.77 1.99 2.68 3.17 3.18 2.89 2.79 2.95
Government Institutions
14.86 23.01 22.50 18.71 19.12 19.11 14.61 15.43 12.89 17.42
Bank Indonesia * 14.86 23.01 22.50 18.71 19.12 19.11 14.61 15.43 12.89 17.42
NON-BANK 194.24 243.93 304.89 336.71 369.43 395.32 396.51 402.37 401.89 406.53
Mutual fund 26.33 33.11 45.22 44.18 48.84 52.27 51.56 51.91 52.27 51.16 Insurance 43.47 55.83 72.58 78.04 77.44 80.61 79.94 77.78 77.74 79.30 Foreign 78.16 87.61 108.00 132.46 162.05 177.99 182.26 191.99 191.20 195.76 Pension fund 25.50 32.98 37.50 37.24 36.48 37.10 36.57 36.29 36.53 36.75 Securities 0.28 0.53 0.46 0.42 0.13 0.30 0.20 0.14 0.15 0.13 Others 20.50 33.87 41.12 44.37 44.49 47.05 45.98 44.25 44.00 43.43
TOTAL 477.75 525.69 581.75 593.16 621.23 645.36 645.08 642.98 642.81 641.21
Domestic Government Securities Ownership (%)
Notes:Nominal in trillion IDRIncluded SBSN ownershipForeign holders include banks, financial institution, etc;Others include individuals, corporates, foundations, etc.*) Include SUN repo transaction to BI, since February 8, 2008
Dec '07 Dec'08 Dec'09 Mar'10 Jun'10 Aug'10 Sep'10 Oct'10 Nov'10 31-Dec-10
BANK 56.23% 49.22% 43.72% 40.08% 37.45% 35.78% 36.27% 35.02% 35.47% 33.88%
State Own Bank recap 32.38% 27.53% 24.79% 23.78% 22.18% 21.20% 21.32% 21.05% 20.89%
Private Bank recap 15.20% 11.73% 10.31% 9.16% 8.86% 8.52% 8.72% 8.20% 8.73%
Non Bank recap 7.40% 8.59% 7.29% 6.20% 5.71% 5.28% 5.44% 5.08% 5.19%
BPD Recap 1.25% 1.24% 1.03% 0.61% 0.27% 0.28% 0.29% 0.25% 0.23%
Syariah Bank 0.13% 0.30% 0.34% 0.43% 0.49% 0.49% 0.45% 0.43% 0.46%
Government Institutions
3.11% 4.38% 3.87% 3.15% 3.08% 2.96% 2.26% 2.40% 2.00% 2.72%
Bank Indonesia* 3.11% 4.38% 3.87% 3.15% 3.08% 2.96% 2.26% 2.40% 2.00% 2.72%
NON-BANK 40.66% 46.40% 52.41% 56.77% 59.47% 61.26% 61.47% 62.58% 62.52% 63.40%
Mutual fund 5.51% 6.30% 7.77% 7.45% 7.86% 8.10% 7.99% 8.07% 8.13% 7.98%
Insurance 9.10% 10.62% 12.48% 13.16% 12.47% 12.49% 12.39% 12.10% 12.09% 12.37%
Foreign 16.36% 16.66% 18.56% 22.33% 26.09% 27.58% 28.25% 29.86% 29.74% 30.53%
Pension fund 5.34% 6.27% 6.45% 6.28% 5.87% 5.75% 5.67% 5.64% 5.68% 5.73%
Securities 0.06% 0.10% 0.08% 0.07% 0.02% 0.05% 0.03% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
Others 4.29% 6.44% 7.07% 7.48% 7.16% 7.29% 7.13% 6.88% 6.84% 6.77%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
[Rp miliar]
Total 78,156 87,606 107,997 132,459 148,511 144,089 162,055 172,221 177,991 182,265 191,991 191,199 195,755
>5 52,294 61,055 76,702 98,355 112,448 110,991 116,675 118,854 122,199 125,956 128,489 128,257 131,232
>2-5 17,243 20,374 21,361 21,660 23,135 20,953 28,632 31,737 32,503 33,274 38,375 38,143 35,511
>1-2 4,374 4,491 5,119 8,017 7,135 6,621 6,742 8,345 8,689 5,462 4,623 5,811 9,077
0-1 4,246 1,687 4,816 4,427 5,793 5,524 10,006 13,284 14,601 17,573 20,505 18,988 19,935
Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 31-Dec-10
Offshore’s Ownership of Domestic Government Securities,
Classified by Tenor
Mayoritas investor asing merupakan ‘long-term investors’, dimana kepemilikan mereka atas SBN bertenor panjang (lebih dari 5 th) mencapai 67,04% per 31 Desember 2010.
67,08%
3,04%
9,93%
67,04%
4,64%
10,18%
19,95% 18,14%
DATE TURK-15 INDO-15 US-5Y COLM-15
31-Dec-09 4.59 4.43 2.78 2.1730-Jun-10 4.45 4.01 1.72 2.3530-Sep-10 3.09 3.04 1.14 1.5929-Oct-10 2.69 3.03 1.00 1.6830-Nov-10 3.12 2.82 1.24 1.6027-Dec-10 3.31 3.24 1.75 1.8228-Dec-10 3.31 3.41 1.87 1.9429-Dec-10 3.29 3.19 1.73 1.6430-Dec-10 3.31 3.17 1.76 1.8431-Dec-10 3.33 3.28 1.70 1.73
Spread over UST-5 Years
-400
-200
0
200
400
31-Dec-09 28-Feb-10 30-Apr-10 30-Jun-10 31-Aug-10 31-Oct-10 31-Dec-10
TURK-15 INDO-15 COLM-15
Spread over UST-10 Years
0
100
200
300
31-Dec-09 28-Feb-10 30-Apr-10 30-Jun-10 31-Aug-10 31-Oct-10 31-Dec-10
PHIL-20 COLM-20
INDO-20 GMTN TURK-20
NAME PHIL-20 US-10Y COLM-20 INDO-20 TURK-20
31-Dec-09 5.48 3.85 5.82 5.7730-Jun-10 5.13 2.88 5.23 5.13 5.6330-Sep-10 3.92 2.39 4.18 3.97 4.4429-Oct-10 3.85 2.43 3.93 3.90 4.0530-Nov-10 4.02 2.54 4.68 4.14 4.5527-Dec-10 4.29 3.08 4.76 4.57 4.8628-Dec-10 4.29 3.23 4.90 4.67 4.8729-Dec-10 4.37 3.09 4.72 4.55 4.8730-Dec-10 4.34 3.11 4.85 4.53 4.8631-Dec-10 4.34 3.04 4.90 4.60 4.82
Spread over UST-Feb 38
0
100
200
300
400
31-Dec-09 28-Feb-10 30-Apr-10 30-Jun-10 31-Aug-10 31-Oct-10 31-Dec-10
COLM-37 INDO-38
TURK-38 TURK-40
NAME COLM-37 INDO-38 US-FEB 38 TURK-38 TURK-40
31-Dec-09 6.62 6.83 4.62 6.7530-Jun-10 6.03 6.34 3.87 6.67 6.7630-Sep-10 5.21 5.30 3.63 5.75 5.7629-Oct-10 5.08 5.32 3.94 5.41 5.4530-Nov-10 5.61 5.74 4.06 5.74 5.8027-Dec-10 5.91 6.07 4.36 5.97 6.0028-Dec-10 5.98 6.21 4.50 5.97 6.0029-Dec-10 5.93 6.13 4.40 5.97 6.0130-Dec-10 5.95 6.15 4.39 5.97 6.0031-Dec-10 5.93 6.10 4.30 5.96 5.99
Chapter 7Rating, Supreme Audit Agency
Opinion, HIPICs and Conclusion
Indonesian Credit Rating
Rating Improvement Determinants The Indonesian economy resilience in the face of global crisis
in 2007-2008 Political stability and law enforcement improvement Prudential government debt management:
Decrease of debt to GDP ratio Timeliness of debt obligations payment Increasing investors / lenders confidence
Sovereign Credit Rating (Fitch, Moody’s, S&P) Improvement rating one notch down the potential
performance yield of new foreign currency of government securities approximately 75-115bps
Country Risk Classification (CRC) Credit risk measurement of a country by OECD member
countries Range 0-7 (high risk) Decrease 1 level CRC potentially reduce the cost of foreign
loans, especially new export credit facility of about 130-150bps
S&P Fitch Moody's CRC R&I J CRA
1999 CCC+ B- B3 6 B- -
2000 B- B- B3 6 B- -
2001 CCC B- B3 6 B- -
2002 CCC+ B B3 6 B- B
2003 B B+ B3 6 B- B
2004 B+ B+ B2 6 B B+
2005 B+ BB- B2 5 BB- B+
2006 B+ BB- B2 5 BB- BB-
2007 BB- BB- B1 5 BB+ BB
2008 BB- BB Ba3 5 BB+ BB
2009 BB- BB Ba3 5 BB+ BB+
2010 BB BB+ Ba2 4 BB+ BBB-
RatingTahun
Indonesia Rating Profile 1999 - 2010
show encouraging progress
Indonesian Credit Rating Development (1)
S&P: 2 notch goes to investment grade
Fitch: 1 notch goes to investment grade
Moody’s: 2 notch goes to investment grade
R & I : 1 notch goes to investment grade
JCRA : investment grade already
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
S&P's Fitch's Moody's (RHS)
1998 1999 2000 2004 2005 2006
CCC-
CCC+
B
BB-
BB+
BBB
SD/DDD
R/C
CC
CCC
B-
B+
BB
BBB-
BBB+
Ca
Caa2
B3
B1
Ba2
Baa3
Baa1
C
Caa3
Caa1
B2
Ba3
Ba1
Baa2
1997 2001 2002 2003 2007 2008 2009 2010
Indonesian Credit Rating Development (2)
Selective default was experienced by the economy in 2001 and 2003
Rating has significantly upgraded after 2004
Investm
en
tg
rad
e
Moodys’s menaikan rating ke Ba2per 16 September 2009
S&P’s menaikan rating ke BBper 12 Maret 2010
Fitch’s menaikan rating ke BB+ per 25 Januari 2010
Rekapitalisasi Perbankan
Krisis ekonomi
1998
Reprofiling VR & HB, Asset-Bond
Swap, & penerbitan SUN
jk panjang
Lelang penerbitan SUN secara
reguler, program Buyback
Lelang penerbitan SUN secara
reguler, program Buyback, & Debt
Swtiching
Lelang penerbitan SUN secara reguler, program Buyback, Debt Swtiching, &
diversivikasi instrumen
Investm
en
tg
rad
eN
on
In
vestm
en
t g
rad
e
S&P sempat menurunkan
rating ke Selective
Default namun direvisi
kembali 2 hari kemudian
Non
Investm
en
t g
rad
e
Indonesian Sovereign Rating – Performance Upgrading (1)
Moody’s on 16 Sept. 2009 upgraded credit rating of Indonesia from Ba3 to Ba2, with highlights as the following: “The upgade was prompted by the Indonesian economy’s relatively strong
resilience to the global recession as well as its healthy medium-term growth prospects”
“The upgrade was also prompted by an improving credit profile derived from Indonesia’s ongoing policy prudence, structural reforms, and appropriate debt management”
On 25 January 2010, Fitch’s upgraded credit rating of Indonesia from BB to BB+ with outlook stable, highlights as the following: “The rating action reflects Indonesia's relative resilience to the severe global
financial stress test of 2008 - 2009 which has been underpinned by continued improvements in the country's public finances, a fundamental sovereign rating strength, and a material easing of external financing constraint. ”
On 12 March 2010, S&P upgraded credit rating of Indonesia from BB- to BB with outlook positive, highlights as the following: "The positive outlook reflects Standard & Poor's expectation that the political
pressures experienced by the administration will prove to be only a temporary distraction from implementing its fiscal, administrative, and structural reform agenda,"
On 2 April 2010, CRC upgraded credit rating of Indonesia from clasification 5 to clasification 4, with highlights as the following: “The main factor supporting the upgrades is Indonesian impressive macroeconomic
indicators as the economy is one of the most resilient amid the global financial crises and Indonesia is one of the few countries that experienced positive economic growth in 2009. Improvement in macroeconomic performance and economic stability is the result of a combination of good and forward looking economic policy, ongoing structural reforms, as well as good debt management”
On 13 July 2010 JCRA upgraded credit rating of Indonesia into Investment Grade from BB+ to BBB-, with highlights as the following: “JCR explained that the upgrade reflects (i) enhanced political and social
stability along with the progress in democratization and decentralization, (ii) sustainable economic growth outlook underpinned by solid domestic demand, (iii) alleviated public debt burden as a result of prudent fiscal management, (iv) reinforced resilience to external shocks stemming from the foreign reserves accumulation and an improved capacity for external debt management and (v) efforts made by the second Yudhoyono administration to outline the framework to deal with structural issues such as infrastructure development.”
On 14 October 2010, R & I changed Indonesia outlook from stable to positive with a rating of BB, highlights as the following: “The outlook revision and rating affirmation reflects that Indonesia is
considered successful in maintaining high growth despite the global financial turmoil. R&I believes an upgrade to the ‘investment grade’ or BBB rating category is possible once Indonesia is set to sustain balanced economic growth by boosting investment in infrastructure.”
Indonesian Sovereign Rating – Performance Upgrading (2)
Supreme Audit Agency Opinion on Government’s Financial Report 2009
Indonesian Supreme Audit Agency (BPK) opines unqualified (Wajar Tanpa Pengecualian/WTP) to the Financial Report of all accounts related to debt management and administration
Debt management’s accountability continues to improve Internal control system Compliance to the existing regulation
For HIPCs, debt-to-GDP ratio has declined quite significantly from 102% in 1999 to 31% in 2007
Debt write off made debt outstanding to drop off at the level of 90% in average (as on 2007)
GDP per capita of HIPICs and Debt-Relief Countries
Honduras 1,147 1,197 1,206 1,239 1,310 1,415 1,546 1,731 Guyana 970 947 981 1,006 1,064 1,117 1,229 1,413 Bolivia 1,010 959 913 915 974 1,040 1,224 1,379 Cameroon 635 591 654 800 906 932 988 1,114 Nicaragua 771 791 766 770 828 889 958 1,013 Zambia 310 341 342 395 490 640 931 953 Sao Tome and Principe 536 625 664 711 746 796 916 Senegal 454 460 490 613 700 738 768 898 Mauritania 421 424 423 459 537 620 875 847 Ghana 247 258 292 353 402 476 553 650 Benin 312 318 364 447 492 505 528 601 Mali 242 255 315 399 433 457 490 556 Burkina Faso 220 229 260 326 378 390 402 458 Tanzania 268 272 274 281 303 368 359 400 Gambia, The 304 292 250 241 255 285 307 377 Madagascar 240 272 256 310 241 270 287 372 Mozambique 234 218 220 238 284 320 326 363 Uganda 240 223 222 230 243 302 318 363 Rwanda 212 196 187 199 218 258 303 341 Niger 162 169 182 213 226 251 262 294 Sierra Leone 140 171 190 192 199 217 247 286 Malawi 150 144 217 193 204 216 233 255 Ethiopia 124 121 112 120 137 164 197 245
Countries 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Year
Notes:GDP Per Capita of Indonesia 2008 = USD2.246 (source: IMF)
Notes:GDP Per Capita of Indonesia 2008 = USD2.246 (source: IMF)
( USD )
Conclusion
Fiscal deficit requires financing. Debt has long been recognized as the best policy tool to support liquidity and to refinance matured debt
Debt outstanding accounts growth in nominal term but debt as a share of GDP keeps to record a significant decrease and, as our fiscal rule mandates, it is still in a healthy level
Ultimate goal of debt management is to acquire fund with low cost & risk, with long term maturity, untied to any political agenda
Continuing to achieve sound fiscal policy and debt management: Looking at another developing and even advanced countries’
performance, debt indicator of Indonesia stays better and is continuing to be so
Rules and regulations are already installed in place to guarantee accountability and transparency of debt management
Central Government’s Financial Report 2009 has been judged as unqualified (Wajar Tanpa Pengecualian/WTP) by the State Audit Board (BPK)
Improvement ratings, especially since 2005, and last (12 March 2010) increased by S & P rated BB- to BB even though in the midst of a global crisis that is still felt in some countries. While Indonesia has been included in the investment grade category by JCRA
© 2010Directorate Evaluation, Accounting and
SettlementDirectorate General of Debt Management
Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
Jl. Lapangan Banteng Timur 2-4 JakartaTlp: 021-3449230 psw. 5647, 021-3864778
Fax: 021-3843712www.dmo.or.id