Jan 2007

Dublin at the Crossroads

Choosing ........Success?

What’s going to change?

VALUES DEMOGRAPHICS POLITICS

PLANNING

What does Janus foresee?

• What’s going to change?• What’s going to happen?• What could go wrong?• What’s at the Crossroads?• What are the choices?• What would be the best choices?

LOOKING AHEAD..........

What’s Going to Change?

?

Urbanisation will Increase, densify & self- organise

New Centres will Grow

New Corridors will emerge

Expense of National Capital increases

What will change?Urbanised Areas will ‘densify’, expand & self-organise

4 – 6 Strong Town Centres will emerge

Major Peripheral Routes will emerge

The National Capital role will intensify

What Could go wrong?

The Face of Failure

•Expensive Centre•Congested Centre•Uncompetitive Centre•Challenging Central Lifestyle•Collapse of Tax Base

•Attractive Suburban Lifestyle•Competing Edge Centres•Outmigration of Centre of Gravity

60 mins

60 mins

A New Centre of Gravity develops based on;-

•Population•Commerce•Convenience•Economy•Markets

Donut City

What’s at the Crossroads for Dublin?

Which Dublin?

CITY REGION?

URBANISED AREA?

Which Dublin?

CITY CENTRE?CBD?

Different Scales need Different Thinking, about•Competitiveness•Finance•Governance•Planning•Infrastructure

Choices facing Dublin is at a crossroads

SYMPTOMS OF SUCCESS

Economically CompetitiveRegionally Planned & Co-

ordinatedSpecialisation, sharing and role

allocation

Planned from edge to middleAccommodates all travellers –

including cars

SYMPTOMS OF FAILURE

Unplanned

Un-coordinated

Poor Hierarchy

Duplication

Competing Centres

Expensive Centre

Congested Centre

Different Dublins

• Urbanisation will Increase, densify & self- organise

• New Centres will Grow

• New Corridors will emerge

• Expense of National Capital increases

1. UNPLANNED SPRAWL

2. PLANNED SPRAWL

3. A CITY OF NEIGHBOURHOODS

4. Bi-polar City or ‘Ladder City’A City of ChoicesTwin cores – one coastal, one inland. Offering a range of technical

modern environments as well as older cultural ones

4. LADDER CITY

5. BI-POLAR CITY 1

6. BI-POLAR CITY 2

Imagining Different Dublins

Imagine Planning for cars!

Imagine Planning for Cars

Imagine Planning for Cars

Imagine Planning for Cars

Imagine Planning for Buses!

Issues to be addressed

• The Burden of the National Capital

• The Need for a New Centre

• Managing Mobility [not traffic]

• Need for an Urban Landbanks

• Regional redistribution of costs and benefits

• Competiveness through Specialisation & Excellence

Priority Issues

Priorities for Success

What would be the best choices?

Best Planning Choices• Hierarchy

• Assign Central & Orbital Roles • Designate National Capital Zone

• Form • Agree Location and Strategy for New Center

• Mobility • Devise a Plan-led mobility strategy

• Partnership • Agree Specialisations, plans and strategies

Best Choices for Competitiveness• Mobility – Prioritize effectiveness and quality

• Services – Refit for density, quality and value

• Land prices – develop public land-bank

• Specialisation – identify and cultivate areas of advantage

• Partnership – growth through synergy, sharing and divestment

Best Choices for Finances

• Regional Competition • anticipate and avoid it

• Local Revenue Generation • anticipate and capture it

• Cost of National Capital Zone • share the burden of it

• Excellence • plan to sustain it

Dublin at the Crossroads

A Time of Choices

Division & Decline? Potential &

Prosperity?