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James M. Buch Vice President, Commercial Titanium Metals Corporation
ABSTRACT: Several market and technology forces are impacting the design and demand for civil and military engines. This presentation will cover how these forces are likely to influence the future of titanium in this sector.
Changing Engine Design & Impact on Titaniumon Titanium
James Buch2008 ITA C f2008 ITA ConferenceSeptember 22, 2008
DisclaimerCertain of the information presented herein relates toCertain of the information presented herein relates to
matters that are not historical facts but are forward-lookingprojections/statements that involve risks and uncertaintiesassociated with TIMET’s business that are described morefully in TIMET’s filings with the United States Securities &Exchange Commission Actual future results could differExchange Commission. Actual future results could differ
materially from these projections. You rely on theseprojections and other information in this presentation atp j p
your own risk, and TIMET assumes no duty to update anyof this information should expectations change.
Titanium Demand in Jet EnginesTitanium Demand in Jet Engines
2.50Metal Demand Index (Engines)
Titanium Demand in Jet Engines • Single aisles showing unprecedented growth with new engines
2.00
Aircraft Demand Index (Structures)
• Twin aisle engine titanium demand to grow 150% by
gexpected before 2020
History Forecast
1.00
1.50 demand to grow 150% by 2020 and 300% by 2030
• Higher engine titanium
0.50
• JSF leading the way in ilit i tit i
g gdemand on regional jets
0.002005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Airline Monitor, TEAL Group, TIMET estimates w/ 1 year offsetSpares not Included
military engine titanium demand
Longer term titanium demand will be impacted Longer term titanium demand will be impacted by more than just aircraft demandby more than just aircraft demand
Driving Engine Design
ACARE 2020 Overall Objectives(Reference 2000) • Engine noise alters
flight patterns and• Reduce perceived noise by 10dB• Reduce NOx by 80%• Reduce CO2 by 50%
flight patterns and limits flight traffic
• Acceptable cost • Increasing focus on environmental impact and reduction of
ACARE 2020 ObjectivesEngine Contribution
and reduction of greenhouse gases
• Reduce noise by 6dB • Reduce NOx by 80%
Reduce CO2 by 20%
g• Impact of fuel cost on
airline profitability
*Advisory Counsel for Aerospace Research in Europe
• Reduce CO2 by 20%• Acceptable cost Where is titanium a factor?Where is titanium a factor?
Titanium In Modern EnginesTitanium In Modern EnginesIN GENERAL . . .
Where is titanium the best solution?best solution?
• Where propulsive efficiency is driving the need for lighter andneed for lighter and higher strength parts
Where is titanium
High titanium content
challenged?• Where thermal
efficiency is driving theHigh titanium contentIntermediate titanium contentLow titanium content
efficiency is driving the need for higher pressures leading to higher temperatureshigher temperatures
But there are many tradeoffsBut there are many tradeoffs
40%
Bypass Ratio
●Higher bypass ratio improves propulsive
30%
e W
eigh
t
propulsive efficiency
Dat
um E
ngin
e ●Weight is a key trade-off as bypass ratio
Nacelle
F SLP Turbine
20%
% o
f D increases
●Higher bypass
Fan System
Structure
10%
g ypratio drives higher titanium content
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Bypass Ratio
. . . How far can increasing bypass take us?. . . How far can increasing bypass take us?
Increasing Bypass RatioIncreasing Bypass Ratio
Added weight of subsystems and decreasing aerodynamics causes CO2 emissions to
Noise
causes CO2 emissions to increase
CO2CO2Emissions Advanced engine design
required to attain shift in CO2 curve
Larger Fan DiameterSmaller Fan Diameter
Bypass Ratio Increases
Shift in engine & materials performance neededShift in engine & materials performance needed
Materials and Machining SolutionsMaterials and Machining SolutionsComposites Fan BladesComposites Fan Blades Hollow Titanium Fan BladesHollow Titanium Fan BladesComposites Fan BladesComposites Fan Blades Hollow Titanium Fan BladesHollow Titanium Fan Blades
http://www.cfd.sk/tps/img40.png
Conventional Disk & Blades
Bling - Ti MMC - up to 70% weight
savings
Blisk – up to 30% weight savings
Thermal EfficiencyThermal Efficiency
F l ffi i i ith hi hF l ffi i i ith hi h
Source: Rolls Royce
Fuel efficiency improves with higher pressure Fuel efficiency improves with higher pressure and temperature … but NOx increasesand temperature … but NOx increases
Impact of Changing Business ModelImpact of Changing Business Model
Selling EnginesSelling Engines• Profitability aligned
with engine operating performanceperformance
• Desire for increased l t dcycles to reduce
maintenance
Titanium content increased Titanium content increased due to strength, corrosion due to strength, corrosion Erosion Resistance g ,g ,resistance & weight savingsresistance & weight savings
Erosion Resistance Leading Edge
Titanium Strips
Evolution in Engine DesignEvolution in Engine DesignGeared Turbo FanEnhanced Turbo Fan
http://www.pw.utc.com/ Source: http://www.rolls-royce.com/paris2007/media/images.html
Intercooled Recuperated EngineUnducted Turbo Fan
Source: http://www.mtu.de/en/technologies/engineering_newsSource: people.bath.ac.uk/mek20/finished/files/1_6.png .
The Future Remains BrightThe Future Remains Bright
Titanium ImpactDriving Forces
Aircraft Demand
Higher Bypass Ratiog yp
Increased Pressure and Temperature
New Business Model
Overall
Thank YouThank You