Jake Bernsteintrade-futures.com/INTERMLNGTRMTRADING/INTERMLNGTRM... · 2017. 4. 2. · Jake Bernstein Trading Webinar [email protected] Session 1 of 3 Concepts, Process, Timing,

Jake Bernstein Trading Webinar [email protected]

Session 1 of 3 Concepts, Process, Timing, Examples

1 April 2017 © 2017 by Jake Bernstein

[email protected]

800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600

www.jakebernstein.com

http://www.jakebernstein.com/

Disclaimer and Risk Disclosure

• The information provided here is

presented for educational purposes. Past

performance is not indicative of future

results. There is a risk of loss in all trading

and investing. There is no guarantee that

recommendations or suggestions provided

herein will result in profits or that they will

not result in losses. Consider your own

risk tolerance in all trading and investing

decisions. (c) 2017

www.jakebernstein.com

2

• “Cycles…the mysterious forces that trigger

events…” E R Dewey

• Cycle: a repetitive pattern in a data series

usually, but not always time based

• “you don’t need a weatherman to know

which way the wind blows” Bob Dylan

(c) 2017 www.jakebernstein.com 3

Topics

• The importance of intermediate and long-term investing

• How investing differs markedly from trading

• Why investing is easier than trading and produces

more profit

• Specific investing methods, timing and triggers

• How to allocate your investment dollars

• Intermediate-term seasonal trades

• Using LEAP options as an investment vehicle

• How to avoid exiting too soon


• Trailing stops to ride the big moves

• Behavioral issues that inhibit success

• Winning procedures and rules

• Real-Time examples

• Trades initiated and followed through week by week

• Cycles as a primary investment decision-making tool

• Three 100% rule-based investment timing strategies


My goals

• To be clear and specific

• To give real and concise examples

• To teach you things that you can use to

make money

• To avoid creating dependency

• To help you maximize your trading skills

• To share my knowledge and experience of

50 years


Long-term versus short-term

• A few real trades and real examples

• You can work smart or you can work hard

• You can make small profits with large positions

to compensate for the size

• Or you can trade small positions for large profits

taking advantage of the big moves

• Or you can do both: they are not mutually

exclusive. Here are some examples from one of

my accounts


Long term vs. short term


Why?


Working definitions

• For the purposes of this webinar I will define the terms

as follows, knowing that nothing is written in stone

• Short-term less than 30 days

• Intermediate-term 30 days to one year

• Long-term one year or more

• Please note other than day trade which is self-

explanatory all other definitions are for you, the trader or

investor to decide

• I can only tell you what’s right for me and what works for

me because market conditions can, do, and will change

over time


Overview / Issues

• Why intermediate and long-term?

• Why now?

• Big money is in the big move

• Big moves take time – how big is big?

• Long AAPL 114 in 2014 still long 143 +25%

• Stability of indicators IT, LT, ST

• Completely mechanical versus process

• Rule-based but decisions necessary

• Long-term: easier, less effort, more $ (c) 2017 www.jakebernstein.com 13

The process

• Elements of intermediate and long-term

decision-making process

• Cycles and patterns

• Large trader actions (COT)

• Small trader sentiment

• Timing triggers

• Targets and risk

• Several procedures (c) 2017 www.jakebernstein.com 14

Set up – trigger – follow through

• Setups are found using patterns and cycles

• Cycles are validated with historical data

• Correlation with large trader positions

• Timing must confirm cycle

• There are three major timing triggers we use

• No trigger equals no trade

• Follow through consists of profit targets and

risk (c) 2017 www.jakebernstein.com 15

Stocks, futures, ETF’s, leaps

• Similarities and differences

• Correlations between futures and stocks

• Finding a proxy

• Monthly, weekly, daily data

• The process is not perfect

• In the sessions we will learn by using

actual current examples

• Session 1: overview and examples (c) 2017 www.jakebernstein.com 16

Session 2

• How to find the patterns and cycles

• How to determine large trader positions

and what they mean

• How to find the confluence in our setups

• Evaluating the timing triggers

• Examples and illustrations


Session 3

• The actual process of getting in and out

• Stops and trailing stops

• Adding to and closing out positions

• Finding new opportunities

• Which markets or sectors are next

• The difference between major highs and

major lows: procedures

• Additional noteworthy findings (c) 2017 www.jakebernstein.com 18

How we will do this

• The boring way: I lecture you

• The enjoyable way: I show you specific

situations and engage you to participate in the

process of discovery

• The advantage: you learn by doing

• Please participate in the process to derive the

maximum learning from what we’re doing

• You have no risk of loss today


A few more important points

• My best profits have been made in the

long-term and intermediate-term

• LT and IT have taken the least amount of

my time and they have been the most

enjoyable

• My indicators are more stable and work

better in longer-term situations. Why?

• Work hard will work smart or both


Let’s begin with an example

• Two years ago I gave a forecast for the

Mexican peso versus US dollar

• Forecast was based on the factors I will

teach you in this webinar series

• The forecast was that peso would make a

major low against the US dollar and rally

strongly for an extended period of time

• The news and Donald Trump were

completely opposite from my forecast. (c) 2017 www.jakebernstein.com 21

What was I looking at? • I will now give you details of what I was looking

at, why I was looking at it, how I was looking at

it, and what I did

• I believe that by following the process of my

methodology in this and many other examples

you will learn how to do it on your own

• The process is not perfect, we won’t always be

right but we will always be logical and process-

based


Above all… Remember

• This is not short-term stuff

• We have a longer-term timeframe

• There is no immediate timing pressure

• To capture the bigger moves you will need

to take bigger risk

• At times it will take several attempts to get

positioned

• We will go through all these alternatives


The cycles

• Let’s begin with the cycles

• Understand that in this particular case

there is a limited amount of futures history

• We can only work with what we have and

accept the statistical limitations of our data

• If this was always perfect and always easy

everyone would be doing it but they’re not!

• Follow my process…


The cycles: peso/USD


EWW Mexico ETF


EWW Weekly


Peso futures


Peso futures weekly


Finding a proxy: why?


• Company Description

• Fomento Economico Mexicano SAB de CV engages in the

production, distribution and marketing of beverages. It produces,

markets, sells, and distributes Coca-Cola trademark beverages,

including sparkling beverages, such as colas and flavored sparkling

beverages; waters; and still beverages, such as juice drinks, coffee,

teas, milk, value-added dairy products, and isotonic drinks. The

company also operates a chain of small-format stores under the

OXXO brand name in Mexico, as well as operates other small-

format stores, which include soft discount stores with a focus on

perishables and liquor stores. It Also offers various logistics and

vehicle maintenance services; and vertical and horizontal

commercial refrigerators for the soft drink, beer, and food industries.

The company has operations in Mexico, Central America, Colombia,

Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Nicaragua,

Panama, and the Philippines. Fomento Economico Mexicano was

founded by Isaac Garza, José Calderón, José A. Muguerza,

Francisco G. Sada, and Joseph M. Schnaider in 1890 and is

headquartered in Monterrey, Mexico. (c) 2017 www.jakebernstein.com 41

Example 2

• Now let’s take a look at another example

this time with considerably more history

and data. I have blacked out the name of

the market to avoid any prejudice

• I will ask for your participation


Why use cycles?

• Cycles basics and logic

• Cycles can help capture the giant moves

• Cycles as a setup: many very accurate

• Cycles: triggers – several triggers

• Cycles: many date back 200-400 years

• Cycles: abuses and misunderstanding

• Easy to find and well documented

• Approx 24 trading day cycle S&P futures


• What a cycle is and what it is not

• Why do cycles exist and are they for real?

• Cycles in ALL MAJOR markets

• The major economic cycles

• The great economists and their cycles work

• The “business cycle”

• The “real estate cycle”

• The Kondratieff Cycle

• How to find cycles the fast and easy way (next week)

• Long term, intermediate and short term cycles

• Cycles in spreads and ratios


• Combining cycles for best results

• Cycles as a SETUP tool in the Setup-Trigger and

Follow-through model

• Intraday cycles: fact or fantasy?

• My best cycles for traders and investors

• Seasonal cycles intermediate term (next)

• Cycles help me to consistently and correctly

forecast big moves


Important points in my use of cycles

• Used as a setup

• Need timing triggers

• Best for long term and intermediate term

• Also excellent forecasting tool

• I do not combine cycles

• Cycle lows more predictable

• Use to identify time periods of a turn

• Excellent for ETFs as proxy for futures

• COT + Cycles = very powerful


• A little history


Cycle waiting for trigger


Brief excursion

• If you want to know more about cycles I

suggest the following…


Joseph A. Schumpeter

[1883-1950]

Économiste autrichien classique, professeur à

l'Université de Harvard, aux États-Unis, à partir

de 1932, 1883-1950

(1939)

BUSINESS CYCLES

A Theoretical, Historical and Statistical Analysis of

the Capitalist Process


Major cycles • 50-60 yr Kondratieff economic cycle

• 9-11 yr Schumpeter

• Intermediate term business cycle 3-4 yrs

• Juglar cycle 9-10 yrs

• Beveridge 9-10 yrs

• Benner 9-10 yrs economic

• 5-7 yr grains and10, 14)

• Many more: E R Dewey

• Let’s look at a few


Schumpeter 10 yr cycles (1930’s)


Juglar: 1860’s Credit Cycles 7-11 yrs most

9-10 yrs - Kuznets


Kitchin business cycle 36-42 mo and harmonic


The Real Estate Cycle USA

2010

2020


Cycles + Timing = Profits


• In the trading / investing world cycles are a

setup – they provide an expectation that

needs a trigger and risk management as

well as profit maximization

• Intermediate and long term cycles work

best

• Cycle lows are easier to forecast than

cycle highs…why?

• Cycles are not symmetrical


Process

• Determine your time frame

• Find the cycle

• Project the turn

• Go to timing trigger (which ones)

• Use trigger and profit max strategy

• COT

• EXAMPLES


Intro: intermediate term

seasonals in stocks


• Mentoring appointment interview • http://www.comtrade1.com/letter/

I can be reached at 800-678-5253 or 831-430-0600

• Email me if you have questions:

• [email protected]

• Best of trading

• Jake Bernstein

www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600

http://www.comtrade1.com/letter/http://www.trade-futures.com/http://www.trade-futures.com/http://www.trade-futures.com/

Documents

Jake Bernsteintrade-futures.com/INTERMLNGTRMTRADING/INTERMLNGTRM... · 2017. 4. 2. · Jake Bernstein Trading Webinar [email protected] Session 1 of 3 Concepts, Process, Timing,