Jagran Prakashan Investment Idea Apr 10, 2019 · Jagran Prakashan, publisher of India’s most widely read Hindi daily, Dainik Jagran, along with its subsidiaries, is all set to capitalize

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Jagran Prakashan Investment Idea

Apr 10, 2019

Buying Range

Rs 108-118.5

Target

Rs. 148

Time Horizon

4 Quarters

Industry

Media / Publishing

CMP

Rs. 118.5

Company Background

Jagran Prakashan Ltd (JPL), incorporated in 1975, is India's leading media and communications group. Its interests spanning across Print, OOH, Digital, covers all of India as its footprint. Music Broadcast, (promoter Jagran) is one of the leading private FM radio broadcasters in India and operates under the brand “Radio City”. Jagran New Media, the online arm for JPL, offers Web, Text/ Voice-based value added services and products. The JNM internet portfolio has 9 websites across genres like news, education , blogging, health, classifieds, youth and videos. The company has 5 verticals, namely Print, Digital, Radio, OOH, and Activati on. Print publication is the flagship business with 10 newspapers and magazine from 38 different printing facilities across 13 states in 5 different languages. Its flagship brand is Dainik Jagran which has 37 editions. Under digital, JPL is a leading player across diverse genres of Hindi news and education. This is one of the fastest growing segments of the company. JPL’s radio busi ness includes India’s first and leading FM brand Radio City. It owns this business through its subsidiary Music Broadcast Ltd. In Out -Of-Home (OOH), JPL provides a comprehensive portfolio of out-of-home marketing solutions to suit customized requirements of its clients. Finally under the activation vertical, JPL offers Below-the-line (BTL) marketing solutions.

Investment Rationale

Jagran Prakashan, publisher of India’s most widely read Hindi daily, Dainik Jagran, along with its subsidiaries, is all set to capitalize on the market growth. The company has in the past acquired Music Broadcast (Radio City), Mid-Day and ‘Naidunia’. All these investments have proved to be in favour of the company from a strategic perspective. Specially MBL, where JPL’s investme nt is already at 3.5x since then. JPL has presence in all the major states with a huge market for Hindi Daily except Rajasthan where the company might grow with an inorganic approach once again. The company has a very good opportunity to grow even in the markets where it is well established due to low penetration rates. The hike in the advertisement rates by 25% will also be very positive for JPL. As India is going for the general elections, the advertisement revenue flows are expected to increase furth er. While the high newsprint costs remains to be a key risk for the company, the prices are expected to stabilize in the coming quarters. As the per capita consumption expenditure increases, we might see a further boost in advertising spends and benefit the company. We are positive on Jagran Prakashan and recommend a buy at CMP of Rs 118.5 and add on dips to Rs 108 with

target price of Rs 148 based upon 12x FY21E EPS.

Research Analyst

Kushal Rughani

[email protected]

HDFC Scrip Code JAGPRA

BSE Code 532705

NSE Code JAGRAN

Bloomberg JAGP: IN

CMP as on 09 Apr’19 118.5

Equity Capital (Rs cr) 59.3

Face Value (Rs) 2

Equity O/S (cr) 29.7

Market Cap (Rs Cr) 3498

Book Value (Rs) 64

Avg. 52 Week Vol 127121

52 Week High (Rs) 175

52 Week Low (Rs) 92

Risk Rating Yellow

Red Flag Level 98

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 61.3

Institutions 30.8

Non Institutions 7.9

mailto:[email protected]

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Apr 10, 2019

Market Leader in Print Media The Indian Readership Survey had given data on the industry in January 2018, after a gap of four years. As per the IRS, the newspaper industry added 11 cr new total readerships, and Dainik Jagran was ranked no.1 with a total readership of 7 Cr., ahead of the No.2 newspaper by a significant margin of 1.8 Cr. readers. JPL’s ‘Naidunia’, also consolidated its position and is now among India’s top 10 Hindi newspapers. Uttar Pradesh, one of the larger states in the country and a key market for JPL, has very low ad spends. This is mainly due to lower per capita income and readership penetration. Kanpur & Lucknow cities contribute 40-50% to the advertising spends. JPL has been an unbeaten leader in the Hindi print readership market. It enjoys pioneering position in the largest Hindi market of UP and is at no.2 in Bihar, Punjab, and Uttaranchal and no.3 in Haryana, Jharkhand, and Delhi markets. Out of these, UP, Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttaranchal have very low literacy rates (with Bihar as low as 61.8%) and readership penetration, likely robust economic growth outlook and the significantly higher population base. Music Broadcast (Radio City) – Rag Rag mein Daude City Out of the total advertising industry in India, the Radio Industry only constitutes 4%. Globally this figure is at ~7% which shows the tremendous potential for the growth of advertising income in this industry. Covering 39 cities post the Phase III auctions, MBL is leading the market growth by covering 72% of the population that has access to FM radio. 91.1 FM is the frequency at which MBL runs the radio. MBL also holds the top spot in Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore, the three biggest markets for Radio Broadcasters and has the highest reach in terms of total listener population as it has a presence in 12 out of the 15 populated cities. Because of all these factors along with the quality content, MBL has ability to charge a premium on the rates front. As a result of this, operating margins are much better when compared to its peers. Post the Phase III auction, lots of companies in this industry had to take on additional debt. However MBL is virtually a deb t free company post the IPO. They plan to retire all debt from the books with the capital raised. Also because of the nature of the Radio Industry, there isn’t much scope for any majo r capital expenditure after the Phase III auctions, the licenses for which are valid for the next 15 years. So, with virtually no debt and operations running, the margins will only get better with limited downside.

Hike in Print Media Advertisement Rates to give boost The government made an announcement in January 2019 to raise advertisement rates in print media by 25%. The new rates will be valid for a period of 3 years. This announcement of increase in rates comes after ~6 years as the previous rate increase happened in 2013 when the governmen t had announced a 19% increase in rates. This move to hike advertising rate will bring a rise in operating revenues of JPL and other newspapers, especially regional and small players which rely heavily on advertising. Expectations of heavy spends in advertising from the government during FY19, due t o the general election season, will also act as a catalyst for the revenue jump of the print industry during the year. This move will directly boost re venue of print industry. After the TV segment (~37%), print is the 2nd largest contributor to the advertising industry’s revenue at ~35%.

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Apr 10, 2019

Company’s offerings across the verticals:

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Potential of Indian Print Media India with a world population share of 17% and a global GDP share of ~7.5% has an Adex (advertising expenditure) share of mere 1.5%. China and USA have substantially higher Adex than both population and GDP. Thus, the headroom for growth of media in India is phenomenal . India continues to register healthy 3-4x (12-16%) growth in Adex vs. the global average of 3-4%. Global print media industry has been on the decline and losing customers and this advertising revenues to alternate mediums. On the contrary, as the oldest pillar of the M&E industry, Indian print media has not only survived through peaks and troughs over a period of time, but continues to grow defying the global trend. Indian print media had been caught up in the crossfire of demonetisation, GST, an economic slowdown, gov ernment clampdown on classified ads and a steep rise in newsprint prices. The Indian print industry is at the cusp of a revival. Newsprint prices have declined by 20-25% from their peak, increase in DAVP (Government Ads) by 25%, upcoming elections and an economic rebound will boost Ad revenues. Thus, we believe that the print industry earnings will revert to its potential growth. Post the global downturn; print especially Hindi and regional witnessed expansion into new states or deeper penetration into existing markets with new edition launches, increased demand from local advertisers etc. Within print, Hindi and re gional print have performed relatively better, while English newspapers have struggled over the past three-four years.

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Apr 10, 2019

Ahead of the 2019 elections, the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting announced 25% hike for advertisement in print media, over and above the existing rate structure by the Bureau of Outreach and Communication (erstwhile Directorate of Advertising and Visual Publicity (DAVP)) . The new rate structure will be valid for a period of three years. The last revision in advertisement rates took place in 2013, when an increase of 19% was announced over and above the rates of year 2010. The move is likely to benefit small and medium-sized newspapers greatly, especially those in regional and vernacular languages. The aggregate operating profit margin of print media companies may increase around 500 bps in FY20, following 25 percent increase in the card rate for government advertisements and softening newsprint prices. Further, the upcoming general elections are likely to increase advertising revenues during the last quarter of fiscal 2019 and the early part of fiscal 2020. Advertising revenues had risen around 7 per cent during the 2014 general elections, CRISIL pointed out. Buy Back History In FY14, JPL did a buyback of 50 lakh equity shares at a price of Rs.95 per share, amounting to Rs.47.5cr. In FY17, the company did another buyback of 1.55 cr equity shares at a price of Rs.195 per share, amounting to Rs 302cr. This was followed by a third buyback last year in July 2018, a total of 1.5 cr shares at Rs.195 per share amounting to Rs 292cr. Apart from this, MBL, a subsidiary of JPL, also had a buyback last year at Rs 77 per share. JPL also paid a dividend of Rs 3 per share last year with a dividend yield of 2.5%. Looking at the corporate action history of the company, it is quite evident that the management believes in the growth of the company. At the same time, shareholders are rewarded for their investment in the company. In the coming years also, the strategy to do buy back at every 2 years is likely to continue, which would also provide support on the downsides. Digital Media – a fastest growing segment Jagran Prakashan is one of the fastest growing digital media platforms in the country offering web, text/voice -based value-added services and products through Jagran New Media (JNM). JPL is present in 10 digital media portals across genres such as news, education, blogging, classifieds, youth and videos. The Co.’s services range from web-based advertising solutions, permission-based content sales, contest-and utility-based services like digital classified platforms, catering to general and corporate consumers. It registered 16% revenue growth last year and the segment may see ~30% growth in FY19; going forward with enhanced smartphone penetration and a growing subscriber base of mobile users, it is expected to do even better. Internet users are multiplying as data charges are dropping, and this will only lead to a robust growth in video consumption. Revenues diversified across verticals As of Q3 FY19, the print business accounts for ~78% of JPL’s revenue, radio business ~14%, and the digital business ~2%. The company also has 6% of its revenue coming from events and outdoor business. This means ~20% of the revenue is from the newer businesse s of the company (radio, digital, events & outdoor). Thus JPL is well diversified and does not depend on any one vertical majorly. While the Print media is still a huge portion of its revenues, going forward, with the growth in digital, print media might see some more reduction.

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Apr 10, 2019

Business Outlook

Expect to end FY19 with some growth vs. flattish revenue in the past two years.

FY20 ad growth to range between 7-8% on the back of (1) Increase in DAVP rates, (2) election driven spends, (3) higher spends from the State Govt., (4) return of tender-related ad spends, and (5) growth in discretionary spends — lifestyle category.

Higher election driven Govt. ads will lead to some cannibalization of commercial ads.

FY20 will witness full impact of the cover price increase.

Circulation expansion will not be at the cost of drop in the cover price.

Management said that EBITDA margin has bottomed out in Q2 FY19.

Maintenance capex for FY20 will range between Rs 50-60cr.

In the near term, ad revenue will continue to remain the primary source of revenue for the digital segment. Debt Free, Net Cash Positive Balance sheet; available at attractive valuations We expect print ad revenue CAGR of 8% over FY19-21E, led by increased spending by the government in the run-up to the upcoming general election. This coupled with 25% hike in the DAVP rates, higher State Government led ad spends and recovery in local ad spends should propel growth. Further, we expect 2% circulation revenue CAGR over the same period mainly on the back of cover price increase. Higher utilization at new (Phase III) stations coupled with yield improvement at legacy stations should drive healthy 13% growth in radio business revenue. Overall EBITDA Margin is set to i mprove after bottoming out in FY19 (OPM of ~22%); estimate 440bps margin expansion over the next two years. Healthy revenues couple d with strong margin expansion would lead to robust 19% PAT cagr over the next two years. With these trends in mind, we are positive on Jagran Prakashan and recommend a buy at CMP of Rs 118.5 and add on dips to Rs 108 with target price of Rs 148 based upon 12x FY21E EPS.

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Apr 10, 2019

Risks & Concerns: Rise in Newsprint Costs: Raw material primarily comprising of newsprint (NP) is one of the largest cost components of the print media companies constituting 45-50% of the overall costs for various players. The news print cost for the past three, four years have been growing at a CAGR of about 2% or 3%. Increase in the domestic newsprint prices is expected to be about 6% to 7%, in case of imported, the price might be even higher. On an average, NP cost increase is expected to be about 10-12%. This is a big risk to the company as it directly affects the margins. Loss in revenues from Government Ad spends: Govt accounts for ~20% of advertising revenue in the industry. Any loss in this portion or a shift in strategy by the government would adversely affect the company. Growth in Digital: The growth in alternative forms of news delivery, especially on the digital front is a huge threat to the traditional new houses. New concepts on the basis of artificial intelligence and predictive news suggestions based on user behaviour supported app s are growing popular by the day. However such technology has not yet reached the consumer base of JPL, however it cannot be eliminated as a threat. Reliance on Government on policy making: The industry is still monitored by the I&B ministry and only the government can increase the advertisement rates for the industry amongst other policies and regulations.

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Apr 10, 2019

Revenues Trend

Source: Company, HDFC Sec Research

2283 2304 23542494

2641

9.8

1

2.2

6 5.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Revenues Growth

EBITDA and EBITDA Margin


640583

518588

69728

25.322

23.6

26.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800


EBITDA EBITDA Margin

PAT and PAT Margin to see strong uptrend


348

300

251

291

35415.2

13

10.7

11.7

13.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400


PAT Margin

Ad Revenues Trend


1687 16971734

1865

2003

1000

1200

1400

1600

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2000

2200


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Apr 10, 2019

Revenues Split (%)


63.8

14.4

13.9

1.86.1

Dainik Jagran

OtherPublications

Radio

Digital

Outdoor & Event

Advertisement Revenues Mix (%)


78.6

19.0

2.4

Print

Radio

Digital

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Apr 10, 2019

Income Statement (Rs. Cr) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Net Sales 2,304 2,354 2,494 2,641

Growth (%) 0.9 2.2 6 5.9

License Fees 21.3 22.01 23.6 25.6

RM costs 664 734 760 729

Emp costs 400 422 438 465

Other exps 635 658 685 726

Total Operating Cost 1,721 1,836 1,906 1,945

EBIDTA 583 518 588 697

EBIDTA (%) 25.3 22 23.6 26.4

EBIDTA Growth (%) -8.8 -11.2 13.5 18.5

Depreciation 136 128 139 147

EBIT 447 389 449 549

Interest 27.1 23.4 25.8 28.4

Other Income 46.7 38.6 36.7 34.8

PBT 467 404 459 556

Tax 156 140 154 186

Minority 11.1 13.6 14.6 15.7

RPAT 300 251 291 354

APAT Growth (%) -13.7 -16.3 15.9 21.7

AEPS 9.6 8.5 9.8 12.3

EPS Growth (%) -9.4 -12.1 15.9 24.8


Balance Sheet (Rs. Cr) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Share Capital 62.3 59.3 59.3 57.8

Reserves 1,977 1,824 1,954 1,926

Total Shareholders Funds 2,040 1,883 2,013 1,984

Minority Interest 247 261 276 291

Long Term Debt 50 50 - -

Short Term Debt 215 211 216 229

Total Debt 265 261 216 229

Other Non current liabilities 220 226 233 239

TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 2,772 2,631 2,737 2,743

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Net Block 514 485 426 359

Other Non current assets 1,067 1,061 1,051 1,046

Non Current Assets 1,581 1,546 1,477 1,405

Inventories 66.4 106 105 95.3

Trade Receivables 607 620 624 628

Other Current Assets 103 103 112 122

Current Assets 777 829 841 845

Trade Payables 134 177 179 180

Other Current Liabilities 86.1 108 109 110

Current Liabilities 220 285 287 290

Net current Assets 557 544 553 556

Cash & Equivalents 635 541 706 782

TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS

2,772 2,631 2,737 2,743


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Apr 10, 2019

Cash Flow Statement (Rs. Cr) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

PAT from Operations 2,998 2,510 2,909 3,539

Interest 271 234 258 284

Depreciation 1,361 1,284 1,393 1,473

Working Capital Change -632 129 -91 -25

OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 3,998 4,158 4,469 5,270

Capex -695 -1,000 -800 -800

Free Cash Flow 3,303 3,158 3,669 4,470

Investments & Others 276 262 382 395

INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) -419 -738 -418 -405

Capital Issuance -31 -30 - -15

Debt Issuance -1,561 -39 -454 131

Interest -271 -234 -258 -284

Dividend -4,149 -4,051 -1,689 -3,939

FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) -6,012 -4,355 -2,401 -4,107

NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) -2,433 -935 1,650 759

Closing Cash 6,347 5,412 7,062 7,821 Source: Company, HDFC Sec Research

Key Ratios FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

PROFITABILITY (%)

GPM 70.2 67.9 68.6 71.4

EBITDA Margin 25.3 22 23.6 26.4

APAT Margin 13 10.7 11.7 13.4

RoE 14.3 12.8 14.9 17.7

RoIC (or Core RoCE) 13.9 12 14.5 18.3

RoCE 10.3 9.4 11.1 13.3

EFFICIENCY

Tax Rate (%) 33.4 34.6 33.5 33.5

Asset Turnover (x) 4.5 4.9 5.9 7.4

Debtors (days) 96 96 91 87

Payables (days) 21 27 26 25

Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 88 84 81 77

Debt/EBITDA (x) -0.6 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8

Net D/E -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3

Interest Coverage 16.5 16.6 17.4 19.4

PER SHARE DATA (Rs)

EPS 9.6 8.5 9.8 12.3

CEPS 14.7 12.8 14.5 16.9

Dividend* 12.7 12.9 4.5 12.3

Book Value 65.5 63.5 67.9 68.7

P/E 12.5 14.2 12.2 9.8

P/BV 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7

EV/EBITDA 5.3 6 5.1 4.2

EV/Revenues 1.3 1.3 1.1 1

Dividend Yield (%) 11.4 11.6 4.1 11.1

Source: Company, HDFC Sec Research,*Buyback in FY18 and FY19 is considered as part of

dividend

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Apr 10, 2019

Ratings Chart

R E T U R N

HIGH

MEDIUM

LOW

LOW MEDIUM HIGH

RISK

Ratings Explanation:

RATING Risk - Return BEAR CASE BASE CASE BULL CASE

BLUE LOW RISK - LOW RETURN STOCKS

IF RISKS MANIFEST, PRICE CAN FALL 20%

OR MORE

IF RISKS MANIFEST,

PRICE CAN FALL 15% & IF INVESTMENT

RATIONALE FRUCTFIES, PRICE CAN RISE BY 15%

IF INVESTMENT

RATIONALE FRUCTFIES, PRICE CAN RISE BY 20% OR MORE

YELLOW MEDIUM RISK - HIGH RETURN STOCKS


OR MORE

IF RISKS MANIFEST,


RATIONALE FRUCTFIES, PRICE CAN RISE BY 30%

IF INVESTMENT

RATIONALE FRUCTFIES, PRICE CAN RISE BY 35% OR MORE

RED HIGH RISK - HIGH RETURN STOCKS


OR MORE

IF RISKS MANIFEST,


RATIONALE FRUCTFIES,

PRICE CAN RISE BY 30%

IF INVESTMENT

RATIONALE FRUCTFIES, PRICE CAN

RISE BY 50% OR

MORE

# Explanation of Red-flag Price level: If stock prices starts sustaining below red-flag level, the premise of the investment needs to be reviewed. Risk averse

investors should exit the stock and preserve capital. The downside of following red-flag level is that if the price decline turns out to be temporary and if

it recovers, subsequently you won’t be able to participate in the gains.

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Apr 10, 2019

Price Chart

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Rating Definition:

Buy: Stock is expected to gain by 10% or more in the next 1 Year. Sell: Stock is expected to decline by 10% or more in the next 1 Year.

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Apr 10, 2019

Research Analyst: Kushal Rughani ([email protected])

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 3075 3450 Compliance Officer: Binkle R. Oza Email: [email protected] Phone: (022) 3045 3600 SEBI Registration No.: INZ000186937 (NSE, BSE, MSEI, MCX) |NSE Trading Member Code: 11094 | BSE Clearing Number: 393 | MSEI Trading Member Code: 30000 | MCX Member Code: 56015 | AMFI Reg No. ARN -13549, PFRDA Reg. No - POP 04102015, IRDA Corporate Agent Licence No.-HDF2806925/HDF C000222657, Research Analyst Reg. No. INH000002475, CIN-U67120MH2000PLC152193. Disclosure: I, (Kushal Rughani, MBA), authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indire ctly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate does not have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately prec eding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest. Any holding in stock – No

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Documents

Jagran Prakashan Investment Idea Apr 10, 2019 · Jagran Prakashan, publisher of India’s most widely read Hindi daily, Dainik Jagran, along with its subsidiaries, is all set to capitalize