JackMWilson.com Copyright 1999-2000 Jack M. Wilson The Internet Tsunami and Distributed Learning Jack M. Wilson

Copyright 1999-2000 Jack M. Wilson www.JackMWilson.com

JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.com

The Internet Tsunamiand

Distributed Learning

Jack M. Wilson


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comLearning: The Killer App

• Is Learning the "Killer App" of the next generation of computing?


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comThe Fact:

• It is the worlds best communication tool

combined with what will be the

• World's Largest Library

Creating the First and Only

• Global Continuous Learning Environment


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comRelentlessly changing the way we

• Labor

• Live

• Love

and

• Learn


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comMy Three Messages

• It’s about intellectual capital stupid!

• Intellectual capital demands continuous development.– (fish, relatives and intellectual capital spoil after

three days.)

• Computing, Communication, and Cognition will change the process tremendously.


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comIntellectual Capital!

• OLD: Physical Capital/Resources

• NEW: Knowledge/Intellectual Capital– Growth in market cap over over $ 1 billion:

• from 33 to 259 companies

– exponential growth of market cap• internet companies market cap: $2 B -> 451 B in 4.5 years

– “worlds largest ‘legal’ creation of wealth

• Frank P. Quattrone, Managing Director and Head of Credit Suisse First Boston Technology Group


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comOld versus New

Weightings of Selected S&P 500 Industries1964 versus 1998

Sector 1964 1998Utilities 19.2% 3.1%Energy 17.8% 5.7%Basic Materials 16.5% 3.1%Technology 5.5% 19.4%

Source: Standard & Poors S&P Weightings of Selected Industries

0.05.0

10.0

15.020.025.0

1964 1998

%

Utilities

Energy

Basic Materials

Technology


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comWaves of Tech. RevolutionFrom Chips to the World Wide Web

• Do you think the pace of change is accelerating?

Incl. Int’l Tech Companies

Source: Securities Data Company

Initial Development… 1967University Networks… 1981Regional Networks (NYSERNET)… 1988Early ISP,s… 1992World Wide Web… 1995

$ Trillio

ns

$ Trillio

ns

MicroprocessorPCs

Client/Server

Software

Data

Communications

Internet


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comHow to Value an Entity?

• Assets?

• Earnings?

• Revenues?

• Intellectual Capital

• Customers? – Internet Valuation is =

$25 per eyeball pair per hour– (Frank Quatronne- Credit Suisse First Boston)


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comInternet Companies

The Internet Tsunami1/1/95 1/1/96 1/1/97 1/1/98 1/31/99 Present*

Number of Public Internet Co's 4 14 33 49 100 162Combined market value $1.9 $10.2 $16.8 $45.5 $231.1 $451.3Combined trailing revenues $1.3 $2.1 $3.8 $5.6 $10.0 $11.4Combined trailing losses $0.0 ($0.1) ($1.1) ($1.2) ($1.9) ($2.0)

($ in Billions)* March 99, Including internet companies then on file for IPOs

Internet Companies' Combined Market Value

$0.0

$50.0$100.0

$150.0$200.0

$250.0

$300.0$350.0

$400.0$450.0

$500.0

1/1/95 1/1/96 1/1/97 1/1/98 1/31/99 Present*

Source: Frank Quattrone, Credit Suisse First Boston


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comNewcomers Are Taking OverTop 40 US-Traded Tech. Comp.

4/9/1999 Market Value ($B) 4/9/1999 Market Value ($B)* Microsoft 469.7 * TSMC 32.1Intel 204.8 * SAP 31.1* Cisco Systems 189.7 * Amazon.com 30.1IBM 167.5 EDS 26.1* America Online 159.2 * Auto. Data Processing 25.9* Lucent Tech. 158.6 Applied Materials 23.8* Dell 105.8 * eBay Inc. 23.0Nokia 80.4 * Tellabs 21.4Hewlett-Packard 69.0 * Ascend Communications 20.6* EMC 66.1 * At Home Corp. 20.3* Sun Microsystems 53.2 * Computer Associates 18.9Motorola 49.5 * First Data Corp. 18.2Northern Telecom 49.0 * STMicroelectronics 16.1Ericsson 45.5 * Micron Technology 11.3Texas Instruments 42.1 * Priceline.com 11.1* Compaq 40.9 * Gateway 2000 10.9* Yahoo! 40.8 * E*Trade Group 10.8Siemens 40.6 Computer Sciences Corp. 9.3Xerox 39.0 * Linear Technology 8.7* Oracle 37.8 * 3Com 7.8

* IPO since 1980 Source: Frank QuattroneCredit Suisse First Boston


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comWhat happened to the Blue Chips?

• Yep, in the summer of 1999 the 10 largest non-Dow stocks were larger than the 10 largest Dow Stocks! The Dow was then revised to include many of these.

Dow LargestMarket Value Founded Non-Dow Largest

Market Value Founded

GE 389 1892 Microsoft 483 1981

IBM 223 1911 Intel 269 1968

Wal-mart 211 1969 Cisco 220 1984

Exxon 195 1882 Lucent 202 1995

Merck 162 1934 Pfizer 154 1942

Citigroup 161 1968 AIG 153 1967

AT&T 159 1885 MCI WorldCom 146 1983

Coca-Cola 152 1919 Bristol Myers Squibb 145 1933

Johnson&Johnson 140 1887 Dell Computer 122 1987

Proctor&Gamble 133 1905 Bank of America 111 1968

192.5 200.5


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comWilson’s favorite laws:

• Moore’s Law– CPU performance doubles every 18 months

• Bandwidth law– Bandwidth is doubling even faster!

• Metcalf’s Law– the value of a network scales as n2 where n is the

number of persons connected.



Components Per Chip in High-Volume Manufacturing

1960Year

1011

1010

109

108

107

106

105

104

103

102

101

1

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Physical and Economic Limit

Memory

100/decade

1000/decade

Logic

32/decade

Moore’s Law follows:

Com

pon

ents p

er chip


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comProgress in Lightwave Transmission Capacity

Year

1000

300

3

10

30

100

0.3

1

0.03

0.1

908886848280 9492 96 98

Ca

pac

ity (

Gb

/s)

Experimental

Commercial


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comWorld-wide connectivity

World-wide connectivity (millions)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

PCsInternet


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comWorld-wide telephone lines

World-wide telephone lines (millions)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02

Main LinesWireless Lines


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comIt ain’t over till its over!

• Moore’s law, the Bandwidth Law, and Metcalf’s law remain true and are expected to continue to be true for another 40 years at least!

• These will drive faster and faster need for change.– Companies will have to respond.

• It ain’t over till the fat lady sings -and she isn’t even in the hall yet!

– Jack M. Wilson: http://lallyschool.rpi.edu/Wilson/ITE.html


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comTechnology forecasts

TechnologiesImage/Video/Speech Coding

Software ProductivityOCR Accuracy

SecurityProcessor Speed

Display TechnologyStorage

Speech RecognitionMicro Miniaturization Design & Mfg

High-Speed SwitchingLightwave Capacity

Integrated Circuit DensityWireless Capacity

10X 100X 1000X1XImprovement Factor (1993 - 2000)

Source: Greg Hughes


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comVenture Capital Funds

Rocket Fuel for Entrepreneurs

Source: Venture Economics Information Services

$ Billions$ Billions



0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Q3 98 Q4 98 Q1 99 Q2 99

# of Companies$MM Invested

“Rocket Fuel for Entrepreneurs”

Venture Capital


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comManagement’s Response

• FUD

– Fear

– Uncertainty and

– Doubt


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comNew Paradigm

• Remember Frank Quattrone assertion:

– OLD: Physical Capital/Resources

– NEW: Knowledge/Intellectual Capital


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comThe Forty Year Degree

• Christopher Galvin,

President Motorola:

• We are not hiring any more graduates with four year degrees.

• We want employees

with forty year degrees


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comTraining Industry

• Training and Development is a – $62 billion dollar industry in transition.

– Corporate spending on Web training hit $600 million in less than five years,

– expected to jump to $10 billion by 2002.


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comIT Worker Shortage

• 346,000 IT positions currently vacant in three core IT occupational clusters -

• 129,000 in 5,874 IT companies

• 217,000 in 97,733 non-IT companies(> 100 employees)

• represent 10% of the total number of reported current core IT employees (3,354,000) or about 3 vacancies for each company

• did not vary significantly by region

• The two most challenging training issues were found to be the fast pace of changing technology and finding qualified trainers.

– ITAA-Commerce Dept. Report 1998.http://www.itaa.org/workforce/studies/hw98.htm


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comProducing IT Workers

• US Produces 35,000 per year (1995)

• India Produces 55,000 per year

• US produced 50,000 computer graduates/ year in 1986!

• 40% of Computer majors are foreign born.– Carol D’Amico, Hudson Institute in

“Understanding the Digital Economy”

– (Commerce) http://www.digitaleconomy.gov/


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comWhere will you get your IT workers?

• Is IT critical to your company’s future in some way?

• The “build versus buy” decision• Buy: Compete in the hot job market

– new graduates and experienced IT professionals

– need for targeted training for new hires

• Build: Grow your own through training– upgrading existing IT professionals

– cross training non IT personnel into IT

• Pace of changes means that workers need to be “built” or “bought” continuously!


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comReasons for IT Training

• Introduction of new technologies in the workplace requires retraining.– Windows, Office, ERP, Customer Relationship Management

(CRM), eCommerce, eBusiness, Help Desk, etc.

• Technical change obsoletes degrees rapidly• Recruiting: Opportunities for further study or graduate

degrees can help attract new employees.• Retention: See above. Can achieve employee “lock-in.”• Retraining non-IT employees in IT areas.• To gain an unfair competitive advantage in their industry!


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comWhy use IT to train IT?

• Conventional methods cost too much

• Conventional methods disrupt the workplace.

• Conventional methods disrupt employees’ lives.

• Conventional methods do not provide the continuous reinforcement required.

• This training is mission critical

• Conventional methods are just too conventional!


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comThe Studio Classroom

• Hesburgh Award 1995• Boeing Award 1995• Pew Prize 1997• Pew: $8.8 Million in 1999.


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comWhat happens to me?

• Will the Web or a CD-ROM Replace your <Blank> Instructor?


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comThe transmission model

• The mainframe approach


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comInteractive Learning

• Distributed Collaborative Model


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comDistributed Cognition

• The "Client-Server" model.• Connecting students, instructors, and resources into a rich

interacting community of learners.• Peer Teaching• Cooperative Learning• Student-student as well as student-instructor and student-

resource interactions• Synchronous as well as asynchronous• Video/Audio/ and Multimedia interactions• The real "World Wide Web"


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comOur Strategies

Interactive Learning

Information Technology

InternationalizationCritical Focus

Technological Entrepreneurship!


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comRSVP

• 10 Years +

• '93 Telecon "Best Distance Learning Program"

• '96 USDLA Industry-University Collaboration

• 1066 Students in Credit/Degree Courses(S99)

• Several hundred more in short courses

• Bringing education to the workplace– (GM, IBM, Lockheed Martin, AT&T, Lucent, Con

Ed, GE, UTC, Pratt &Whitney, Ford, Intel,Applied Materials, Matsushita, Bugle Boy, Albany International, Key Bank, +++++)


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comSuccess Story-LearnLinc

• LearnLinc distributed learning system– primarily corporate education (Fortune 1000)

• founded in 1994 by one faculty (Wilson) and two alums (Bernstein and Usluel)

• RPI Research joint with AT&T and Bell Labs

• Began in incubator

• Moved to Tech Park

• Bootstrap start-up and two rounds of venture including one with Intel.


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comLearnLinc 4.5


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comInstructor Screen


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comLearnLinc Student Screen


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comThe Virtual Classroom

• Hand-raising

• Floor passing

• Annotation

• Q and A

• Feedback

• Application sharing


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comVision: the virtual classroom

• Student Centered

• Web of instructors, students, and resources

• Studio model of instruction

• Peer teaching

• Live video and audio plus canned multimedia

• Synchronous (~20%) & Asynchronous instruction

• Lowered unit cost of instruction


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comAetna: A Success Story

• trained more than 3,000 employees this way since 1997

• expects to triple that number by the end of next year.

• Employees taught via LearnLinc scored four percentage points higher on training achievement tests than those taught the old fashioned way.

• it's more cost-effective to bring the class to the employee, than to get the employee to the class.

• After software costs, Aetna says it has saved $3 million dollars.

• Efficient and Effective!


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comMCI: A Success Story

Goals To reduce the need for expensive training rooms.

To train all of the company's network operations personnel on new products at the same time.

To educate employees as needed, without requiring them to travel for training.

Results– faster deployment of products and services

– estimated savings of about $1,500 per person per class,

– $2.8 million dollars in savings.

– a 237-percent return on investment in less than a year.


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comOffice Depot:

• Michelle Sonder, technical training developer for Office Depot :– “Office Depot was spending about $150 per person

daily to send employees off-site for an eight hour course. The cost was cut to $14 per person with LearnLinc. The centers were teaching them too much. We customize our training now, so that once they are trained, that training instantly applies to their job, and we have shortened the amount of time contracted experts are on site by having them address several locations at once. In one case, this saved us $40,000 in one week.”


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comNTU-Rensselaer Course

Hands-On World Wide Web• Feb 10 & 17, 1998

• 8000 participants

• 500 sites

• Most successful NTU course ever

• “The future of satellite based education.”– Lionel Baldwin, President, NTU


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comRensselaer and Hong Kong City U.

• Survival Skills for Astrophysics

• Professor Chun Ming Leung– Graduate Students in Astrophysics

• Video/Audio/ ILINC Web Data Conf.

• Both ISDN and Internet connection

• 7 am Eastern ( 6 Hong Kong)

• Student Collaborative Presentations

• One Semester length


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comInternationalization

Taipei, Taiwan

• Rensselaer Asia Information Technology ConferenceRensselaer Asia Information Technology Conference– IndustryIndustry– GovernmentGovernment– UniversityUniversity

Hong Kong

BeijingTroy, NY



• Rensselaer Asia-US Information Technology Conference

– Industry

– Government

– University

Information Technology Symposia

Beijing *

Hong Kong * *Taipei

Silicon Valley* *Boston


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comChemical Mechanical Planarization

• RPI/Intel/Applied Mat./ Matsushita/IBM• Murarka, Schowalter, Duquette

– (Introduction to Copper Metalization)

– (Wall Street Journal article)

• Month long course to engineers and scientists in the workplace.

• Video/Audio/ILINC Web data Conf.– ISDN and Internet

– ProShare, PictureTel, Panasonic multipoint


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comCMP Course

• Profilimeter trace showing dishing of the titanium liner relative to the adjacent recessed copper metal. An electrochemical interaction between the copper metal and the titanium accelerated the normally low polish rate of titanium to produce the negative dishing.



The End

Jack M. Wilson

[email protected]

http:\\www.JackMWilson.com


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comIncubator Center

• Founded in 1980; – 25 companies, 2 buildings on and 2 off campus– Support from students/faculty of Lally SoM&T– 9 companies headed by professors, one a Nobel

Laureate in Physics– 5 companies headed by alumni, one as young as

BS in ‘97 -- action games for PCs– 13 companies in IT– 80% survival rate (too high!)– financially self-supporting


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comTechnology park

• Twenty buildings of 835,000 ft2

• 250 acres developed

• total park area is 1,250 acres

• Over 50 tenant businesses– MapInfo, ILINC, PSINet inc., MetLife,

InterScience, Coromed, BellAtlantic, Vicarious Visions, Rhone-Poulenc Silicones VSI, etc.

• Employ over 2,000 people

• Five miles (15 minutes) from campus


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comNTU-Rensselaer Course

• Satellite broadcast

• Hands On Exercises

• Synchronous Tutoring

• Asynchronous support


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comAlbany International Paper

• Management and TechnologyGene Simons– North America– South America– Europe– Australia– Asia

• Face to Face first then PictureTel and Web


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.com“Venture Capital”

• RSVP Reserve Fund

• Strategic Investment Fund

• Our Partners – Ex: HCI Certificate and IBM– GM– Intel and CMP– Albany International

• Operations


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comRensselaer at Hartford

• Formerly Hartford Graduate Center

• Originally founded by RPI to provide graduate engineering education to Hartford corporations.

• Merged in 1997 with RPI

• Now over 2000 graduate students:– 80% Management and Technology,

– 11 % CompSci

– 9% Engineering

• Use all the technologies to exchange courses


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comSuccess Story

• MapInfo– Founded by four undergraduates and staff

member– $60.6 million in 1998 rev.(1999 $70 M est.)– NASDAQ Stock– Develops desktop mapping software– Offices in Beijing and Hong Kong– Research with campus on software design

collaboration across distance and culture


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comOregon Graduate Institute

• 155 Faculty members

• 4 Student/Faculty

• Doctoral Students: 116 Full 23 Part

• Masters: 109 Full 168 Part

• Research: $12 million


JackMWilson.comJackMWilson.comOGI Fields

• Biochemistry and Molecular Biology

• Computer Science and Engineering

• Electrical and Computer Engineering

• Environmental Science and Engineering

• Management in Science and Technology

• Materials Science and Engineering

Documents

JackMWilson.com Copyright 1999-2000 Jack M. Wilson The Internet Tsunami and Distributed Learning Jack M. Wilson