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MISSION ANALYSISBRIEFING

J5

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JFSOCC CASPIAN

FOB 101 (-)

FOB 102

2/75 IN

D, 96th CANSWTU-2

JSOTF-AZ

JFSOCC BAKU

BAKU BOLSHIYE

JSOAD-N JSOAD-S

BOLSHIYE NAKICHEVAN

BOLSHIYE

QRF

BOLSHIYE BAKU BAKU

JSOACJSOTF-IZ

SULAYMANIYAH

SULAYMANIYAH

NILE

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Current ODA Disposition

CST/DA-TGO: 17 ODAs

ODB 010 Mission SupportODA 011 5th AZ Mech In Bde

ODA 012 1st AZ Artillery Bde

ODA 013 10th AZ Mech In Bde

ODA 014 -1st AZ Anti-Armor Bde

ODA 015 2nd BCT 1AZ ID

ODA 016 1st BCT 1AZ ID

ODB 020 Mission Support

ODA 021 1st AZ Division

ODA 022 11th AZ Mech In Bde

ODA 023 6th AZ Mech In Bde

ODA 024 2nd AZ Arty Bde

ODA 025 7th AZ Mech In Bde

ODA 026 12th AZ Mech In Bde

ODB 040 Mission Support

ODA 041 - 16th AZ Mech In Bde

ODA 042 - 14st AZ Artillery Bde

ODA 043 - 15th AZ Mech In Bde

ODA 044 - 8th AZ Mech In Bde

ODA 045 - SR/DA-TGOODA 046 SR/DA (SAPA)

UW/DA-TGO : 12 ODAs

NILE - KDPIODB 050 - Donboli Tribe Cell

ODA 051 - Donboli Tribe Cell

ODA 052 - Shikak Tribe Cell

ODA 053 - Korahsunni Tribe Cell

ODA 054 - Mamash Tribe Cell

ODA 055 - Herki Tribe Cell

ODA 056 - Haydaran Tribe Cell

ODB 060 Mission Support

ODA 061 - SR/DA-TGO

ODA 062 - SR/DA-TGO

ODA 063 - SR/DA-TGO

ODA 064 - SR/DA-TGOODA 065 - SR/DA-TGO

ODA 066 - SR/DA-TGO

JSOTF-AZ JSOTF-IZ

JSOTF-AZ

SEAL PLT A SR/DA-TGO

SEAL PLT B SR/DA-TGO

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CFSOCC

p. 152

CFSOCC

CJSOTF

NSWTU-2

D-96th CA

JOA Caspian

JSOAD-S

FOB 02

TF SOAR

TF RGR

Nakichevan Airport

JSOAC

JSOAD-N

FOB 01(-)

Bolshiye Airport

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Base

111098 12 13

7654

321

17 18 19161514

20 21 22 23 24

25 26 27 28 29

30 31 32 33

37 38363534

39 40 41 42 43 44

45 46 47 48 49

50 51 52

54 55

53

SITUATION 21 APR 13

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40

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41

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TF N il

TF N il TF N il

TF N il42

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TF N il

TF N il TF N il

TF N il43

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TF N il44

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55

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Russian Land Sector

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Russian Land Sector

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Base

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Time Line

T- Signature of

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TF-NailKNOWN FACTS

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KNOWN FACTS

Time Zone Delta (Z+4 hrs)

Multinational Peace Implementation Force (MPIF) will enforcepeace accord for 18 months.

COMCJTF CASPIAN will establish a Peace Implementation Force

Deploy/establish UNAAMOFOR (United Nations Azerbaijan

Ahurastan Multinational Observer Force) to monitor violations ofthe Peace Accords

UNAAMOFOR monitor a demilitarized zone (30 KM south of AZ/AHborder) and No-Fly-Zone Over northern part of Ahurastan (north of36 degrees, 30 minutes to the AZ-AH border)

Cessation of Hostilities and offensive operations begining at S+48hrs (22 April 2013 ) All personnel and organizations under the control of coalition or Ahurastan

forces with military capability or within territory under their control (includingarmed civilian groups, national guards, army reserves, and military or civilianpolice forces) will cease offensive operations

Offensive operations include projecting forces or fire forward of FLOT

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KNOWN FACTS

All Ahurastan forces and equipment will withdraw

from Azerbaijan within 27 Days All Coalition forces and equipment will be

withdrawn from Ahurastan territory (except the

DMZ within 27 Days)

All foreign forces, to include individual advisors,freedom fighters, trainers, volunteers, and

personnel from neighboring and other states

shall be withdrawn from the exclusion zone

within 27 days. CJTF Caspian and UNAAMOFOR shall supervise

the marking of the Zone of Separation and later

the Demilitarized zone.

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TF-NailOperational Time line

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Operational Time line

Moscow Peace Accords 20 April 2013

Ahurastan withdraw all forces from

Azerbaijan NLT S+7 (27 April 2013)All

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ASSUMPTIONS

Transfer of authority begins S+2 (S =

signature date of Moscow Peace Accords20 April 2013)

Establish a NATO Peace ImplementationForce NLT 30 April 2013

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CJSOTF OPERATIONS TREE

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CJSOTF OPERATIONS TREE

Demobilization

Peace Enforcement

Counterinsurgency

Mitigate

Lines of

Operation

CST

CJSOTF MSNs

SR/DA-TGO

FID

CT

SR/DA-TGO

UW

Psyops

CA

No Cap

Effect

Cord Defense

Destroy HVTs

Disrupt LOC

Disrupt SAPAF3 Key Leaders

Dissuade Sup.

HCA

Destroy HVTs

Disrupt LOC

Strategic QRF

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SPECIFIED TASKS

Defend Azerbaijan

Destroy Ahurastani Offensive WMD

Capabilities

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IMPLIED TASKS

Conduct Special Operations in JOA Caspian to support JTFcommander

Establish Coalition Support Teams (CST) to support Azerbaijansdefensive and coordinate US support

Conduct FID to support Azerbaijans IDAD Program

Conduct UW to disrupt Ahurastans offensive capability Coordinate CAS for Azerbaijani forces

Provide ISR support for Air Interdiction

Provide PSYOPS LNOs to strategic communications working group(SCWG)

Facilitate coordination of Population Control Measures.

Conduct SR/DA-TGO to locate and facilitate the destruction ofAhurastans offensive capability

Conduct Battle Damage Assessment for JTF Caspian on strategicHVTs

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TF-NailEssential Task

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Essential Task

Defend Azerbaijan

Locate and BPT facilitate the

destruction of Ahurastans WMDcapability.

Conduct operations to disrupt

Ahurastans offensive capability

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TF-NailCritical Vulnerabilities

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Critical Vulnerabilities

JSOAD-S / FOB 02 / TF Ranger withinrange of AH indirect fires and vulnerableto AH ground attack

Infiltration into Ahurastan Sustainment of forces infiltrated south of

AZ/AH border

Ability to defend Azerbaijan against two

tank divisions without Coalition Support. Limited DECON capabilities

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CONSTRAINTS

Requirements (must do) Must support Azerbaijans Defensiveoperations

Prohibitions (cant do) NGO assets will support earthquake relief 45 days until JTF forces are able to engage the

enemy

CDRUSEUCOM is approval for cross borderoperations into Ahurstan

Limited Artillery support South of AZ border

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TF-NailRISKS TO SOF

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RISKS TO SOF

Operational Lack of coalition support during initial AH attack

Tactical Ahurastans SAM threat during infil

Chem attack at JSOADs- North & South and SPODs

Fratricide due to shared AO with AZ and coalition forces(H)use LNOs with appropriate comms package forcoalition forces/establish necessary fire control

measures at both CFLCC/division level (M)

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PROPOSED CCIR Cont d

FFIR

Interdiction of friendly air assets by Ahurastan ADA forces?

Loss of 50% of a BDE Azerbaijans combat power?

Loss of communications with FOB for 24 hrs?

OR rate drops below 65% for air assets?

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EEFI

Location of NILE bases in Ahurastan?

UAR recovery and resupply routes?