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Commercial Vehicle Finance: Sector outlook June 2019

J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

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Page 1: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Commercial Vehicle Finance: Sector outlook

J u n e 2 0 1 9

Page 2: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

AGENDA

1. Commercial Vehicles – Sector performance

2. CV Finance – Landscape

3. Asset Quality Trends – CV focused NBFCs

4. Profitability trends

5. Financial risk profile – Capitalisation & Returns

6. IndAS – Impact on sector

7. Summary - Outlook for CV Finance

Page 3: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Commercial Vehicles: Sales trends

3

Page 4: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Commercial Vehicles: Sales Trends

Source – SIAM

➢ The overall CV market has seen robust growth over the past

two years – 20% in FY 2018 and 18% in FY 2019 – driven by

growth in vehicle categories across tonnages

➢ But there have been divergence in the sale trends between

HCVs and LCVs over the past decade.

➢ HCV sales picked up from July 2017 (post GST

implementation) and showed high growth till June 2018.

➢ LCV Sales, however, has seen secular growth from FY 2016

➢ HCV Sales are a function of the following factors:

▪ Road network expansion

▪ Growth of the freight generating sectors

▪ Fleet utilization rates / freight rates

▪ Regulatory developments

➢ LCV sales derived mostly from the consumption segment

• Globally, there are 3 LCVs for every HCV whereas in

India it is around 2 indicating less redistribution

demand. Correction of this anomaly owing to the

increase in per capita income is driving LCV sales

Source – SIAM

4

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 F18 FY19

LAK

H U

NIT

S

Annual Sales in India - CVs

MHCV LCV CV - Total Yoy %

14.30%

-13.88%-3.13%

4.10%

-31.63%

21.00%

45.70%

19.34%

83.53%

-49.13%

-12.02%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19

Quarterly Sales Trends

M&HCV Total CV

Page 5: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Commercial Vehicles: Sale Determinants

Road Network - Growth

5

Source – NHAI

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 10M 19

MACRO DATA / CV SALES

Eight Core Industries Port Traffic MHCV Sales (RHS)

• The total road network stands at 59 lakh km as of

January 31, 2019.

• The National Highways network with 2% of road

network handles 40% of the total traffic.

• NHAI has budgeted large investments to expand

the national highway network to over 200,000 km. in

next 5 years’ time. A large road network will result in

higher CV sale numbers and will also result in the

industry transitioning to higher tonnage vehicles

Impact of Economic slowdown

• The adjacent chart shows the close correlation of

CV sales to key industries such as Mining, Cement,

Power, Coal and Construction.

• Starting July ‘18, sales of CVs have fallen

drastically driven by the weak macro conditions

• The HCV sales for April and May 2019 are 14% and

20% lower respectively as compared to the previous

periods in 2018 indicating deep slowdown in the

industry

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

NATIONAL HIGHWAYS

Length (km) Per day construction (RHS)

Page 6: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Commercial Vehicles: Sale Determinants

REGULATORY DEVELOPMENTS

6

• Starting April 2020, only BS VI compliant vehicles can be sold as per a Supreme Court order

• India is transitioning from BS IV to BS VI standards directly - BS VI vehicles would be safer andconsiderably less polluting than the current vehicles

•Vehicle costs would be significantly higher given the additional spending done by auto majors

• Impact - Major pre-buying is expected in FY 2020 to avoid buying costlier vehicles. This wasobserved in FY 2016 as well prior to implementation of BS IV.

•Even though sales are trending lower in the first few months, the overall growth rate for FY 2020is expected to remain moderately strong due to this transition

BS VI

• In July 2018, the Ministry of Road Transport & Highways issued a notification increasing the axleweight loading by 20-25% for different vehicle tonnages

•This had overnight increased the carrying capacity of the on-road fleet by that extent

•However, practically, since most of the fleet was already overloading, there has been only aminimal impact on the freight rates

• Impact - The sales bump seen in the states where overloading ban was implemented previouslyhas tapered away resulting in overall reduction in the CV sales numbers

Axle weight increase

•The Government of India is working on a Compulsory Scrappage policy for vehicles older than20 years

• Impact - As per various sources, 7 lakh such vehicles (7% of overall fleet) are plying on theIndian roads and these would be scrapped providing a modest bump to the CV sales numbers

Proposed scrappage policy

Page 7: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Commercial Vehicles: Market share trends

7

Tata44%

M&M 22%

Ashok Leyland17%

Force Motors8%

Eicher6%

Others3%

CV - MARKET SHARE - 2018

LCVS SOLD AS OF JUN ‘18

Passenger Total North Zone East Zone West Zone South Zone

Force 39.20% 34.19% 26.21% 50.51% 37.67%

Tata 37.28% 48.35% 64.43% 28.70% 23.69%

Goods

Tata 41.89% 43.31% 48.08% 39.66% 39.81%

M & M 40.99% 42.98% 45.13% 44.06% 34.21%

M&HCVS SOLD AS OF JUN ‘18

Passenger Total North Zone East Zone West Zone South Zone

Ashok Leyland 43.23% 38.87% 30.79% 33.98% 59.93%

Tata 37.58% 46.02% 59.50% 45.69% 14.85%

Goods

Tata 50.74% 59.40% 66.15% 49.83% 29.42%

Ashok Leyland 34.43% 23.27% 26.23% 35.35% 51.92%

• The HCV market is dominated by Tata Motors and Ashok

Leyland whereas Tata and M&M hold most of LCV market

• Ashok Leyland has been increasing its market share at the

expense of Tata in the trucks segment.

• LCV market is seeing increased competition due to product

launches by most players – Maruti Suzuki has also ventured

into this space

• Given the harmonization of vehicular norms with other

countries with BS VI, there is increased likelihood of

competition from global players

• There are wide regional disparities in market shares of

various players (as shown in the table below) and

companies have been trying to address these.

Page 8: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Commercial Vehicle Finance: Landscape

8

Page 9: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

CV Finance: Exposure Trends

District wise Exposure

RJ

MH

MP

TL

UP

PB

JH

9Source – Credit Bureau Dara Source – Credit Bureau Data

as % of total CV financing

➢ Market for CV financing in India is estimated to stand at Rs

5 trillion and this has grown in tandem with the increasing

numbers of trucks and LCVs sold over the years.

➢ New vehicle financing is dominated by banks and captive

financiers (Auto OEMs) whereas used vehicle financing is

dominated by NBFC segment. NBFC dominance is skewed

by certain big players such as Shriram, Sundaram, and

Cholamandalam

➢ It is pertinent to note that an estimated 50-60% of the used

CV financing is in the unorganised sector (dominated by

moneylenders) and the NBFC’s share could expand in the

future due to formalisation of finance.

NBFC, 56.2%

Other, 2.1%

PSU Bank, 1.9%

Pvt. Bank, 39.8%

CV LENDER TYPE – JUNE 2018

• The exposure is concentrated along the industrial corridors

due to concentration of vehicle movement in these sectors

Page 10: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

CV Finance: AUM Growth drivers

RJ

MH

MP

TL

UP

PB

JH

10

Key factors behind AUM growth in a mature market are:

• Higher tonnage – As the Indian CV market matures into

higher tonnage vehicles, the prices of the vehicles are

increasing and concurrently the loan size of the financiers

• Higher LTV – As players gain more understanding, they

have lent higher LTV in specific less risky sub-segments

• Diversification – Most players are still focused in the

urban centres. Hence, penetration to deeper pincodes is

driving industry growth. NBFCs have also found new

avenues of growth by lending to new small LCVs and taxi

segments in the recent years

F Y 2 0 1 7 F Y 2 0 1 8 F Y 2 0 1 9

76552 91826 98644

2363131440

4058811010

1306015217

AUM GROWTH - VF PLAYERSShriram Chola Sundaram

46%31%

54%

19%

22%

16% 35%

23%

18%17% 25%

4%

9%18% 10%

5%26%

10% 11%

S H R I R A M C H O L A E S S K A Y K O G T A

AUM MIX

HCVs M&LCVs Passenger Vehicles Tractors & CE Others

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

STFC - Disbursement

Disbursements QoQ growth %

In times of stress, such as the current liquidity tightening, the

LTVs are lowered which will result in lower growth

Page 11: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Asset Quality Trends – CV focused NBFCs

11

Page 12: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Asset Quality

Asset Quality Trends : CV focused NBFCs

RJ

MH

MP

TL

UP

PB

JH

12

Key Determinant(s)

➢ The single most important factor determining asset quality

in this sector is the freight rate / availability. Majority of the

market operates on a spot rate basis given the absence of

regulatory oversight or formal contracts

➢ Though, fuel cost increases stress the cash flows, in

periods of high economic activity, it gets passed on.

➢ India experienced a benign fuel cost climate from 2015 to

mid-2018 given the lower international crude prices.

However, with crude prices rallying (albeit with high

volatility), the fuel cost has increased from H2 2018.

➢ This coupled with the slowdown in economic activity from

Q3 FY 2019 has resulted in a significant impact on freight

rates. As per Indian Foundation of Transport Research &

Training (IFRTT), the truck rentals have dropped 15% from

November 2018 to May 2019 across India.

➢ This is expected to result in higher PAR for the players

active in the sector as unit economics turn adverse for CV

operators. Asset quality has steadily improved over past

few quarters and hence trend reversion can be expected.

48.9%42.6%

41.2% 40.9% 39.5%35.4%

39.2%38.2%

29.8%28.9%28.0%

24.9% 24.0% 24.0% 23.2%19.8%

23.5% 21.7% 18.8% 16.5%

9.2% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7%5.5% 3.5%

4.5%4.6% 4.0% 3.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%PAR - EMERGING NBFCS

PAR 0 PAR 30 PAR 90

0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%

10.00%12.00%

PA

R 9

0

PAR 90 - LARGE NBFCS

Shriram Chola Sundaram

Page 13: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Asset Quality: Regional Variations

13

PAR 90 (without Write-off) PAR 90 (with Write-off)

Page 14: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Asset Quality: Regional Variations

14

Roll Forward X-90 DPD (Dec 17 – Jun 18) Roll Backward 90-X DPD (Dec 17 – Jun 18)

Page 15: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Asset Quality: Regional Variations

15

Key Observations

➢ Given that PSU and other lending categories are

negligible, performance of NBFCs is worse off with a

~2% difference compared to Private Bank performance

– including write off.

➢ The delinquencies for the overall industry was very high

in CY 2017 due to demonetisation and GST related

disruptions. However, there has been a noticeable

decline in the PAR levels since then.

➢ The portfolio quality of NBFCs well diversified across

product segments are much better compared to

monoline NBFCs focusing on only used HCVs

➢ TN is the best performing among the Southern states,

and eastern states have slightly higher levels of

overdues. Telangana, Karnataka and Bihar having

higher levels of PAR 90% driven by lower ticket size

vehicles (likely more used CVs)

➢ Given the concentration of certain industries in clusters

across India, build-up of stress can be predicted. For

example, Mumbai and TN clusters are mostly

consumption led and hence would be more resilient to

macro stress as compared to Gujarat

Industrial cluster PAR analysis

Gujarat corridor

NBFC Pvt Bank PSU Bank Other

Exposure 50.80% 44.74% 0.64% 3.81%

PAR 90 % 4.60% 2.60% 7.40% 5.40%

Industrial corridorsGood produced and moved out for

export/consumption

Mumbai-PuneAutomobiles, Pharmaceuticals,

Chemicals and Textiles

Bangalore-Tamil NaduHydraulics, Heavy tools, Metal,

Aerospace, Biotechnology

Vishakhapatnam-GunturSteel, Ship building, Navy weapons,

Pharmaceuticals, Fishing

Delhi – Gurgaon –

Meerut

Food processing, textiles, electricals,

chemicals and auto components

GujaratMetals, Power, Petro chemicals,

jewellery, machinery

ChotanagpurMining, Heavy metals, Industrial

chemicals, railway fabrication, power

Page 16: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Profitability – Yields, Borrowing & Credit cost trends

16

Page 17: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Profitability: Outlook on Yields and key costs

17

Yields

Typical lending ranges in the industry are:

➢ New CVs: 12 – 16%

➢ Used CVs: Less than 5 years vintage: 14 – 16%

➢ Used CVs: Older than 5 years: 16 – 24%

All the industry players have been targeting new-to-credit and rural customers.

Hence the yields on loans have increased continually over the past few years.

Credit Costs

➢ Given the secured nature of lending, asset repossession becomes an important consideration post default wherein the CVs arerepossessed and sold back in the market to recover the dues. When looked at from the actual write-off / credit cost point of view,

the costs trend between 1-3% for most of the players.

➢ Large listed players such a STFC and Chola have transitioned to the Expected Credit Loss model where the Stage 3 assets. The

provision made for against these Stage III assets represents the Loss Given Default (LGD). This would be a proxy for the

repossession losses to be expected for CV players. The LGD rates assumed have converged to 35% (and lower) in the last year.

➢ Controlling credit costs would be a function of PAR control as also the reduction of repossession losses. The industry players have

developed detailed internal grids over the years which captures the valuation of every vehicle model over its lifetime. Having a

robust grid, which is updated frequently, would be critical to keep the credit costs low.

➢ Vivriti evaluates the Internal grids of CV players to assess the valuation and LTV strategies. This reveals the preferences of

various lenders for different OEMs and models and also reveals whether any particular NBFC is aggressive

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Q 1 - 1 8 Q 2 - 1 8 Q 3 - 1 8 Q 4 - 1 8 Q 1 - 1 9 Q 2 - 1 9 Q 3 - 1 9 Q 4 - 1 9

LGD

STFC Chola

Page 18: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Borrowing profile & Costs

18

➢ The outstanding stock of NBFC borrowings mostly constituted market instruments with the share being 58% as of March 2017.

➢ However, there has been a reversal witnessed from 2018. Higher than expected government borrowings and surging crude prices

have contributed to higher yields.

➢ In September 2018, post the IL&FS default, the yields increased significantly due to the liquidity concerns. Especially, most NBFCs

which had ALM mismatches have found it difficult to refinance short term borrowings. Hence there has been a sharp shift towards

bank borrowings in the recent past given that the bank MCLRs have not increased as much.

NBFC ND-SI Share of Borrowings

Mar-17 Mar-18 Sep-18

Debentures 48.6% 46.2% 42.5%

Bank Borrowings 21.2% 24.2% 26.1%

Borrowings from FI 2.2% 1.6% 1.8%

Inter corporate 3.4% 3.7% 4.5%

Commercial Paper (CP) 9.4% 8.9% 9.7%

Govt. borrowings 1.6% 1.3% 0.0%

Sub-debt 2.8% 2.6% 2.3%

Others 10.8% 11.5% 13.1%

Total Borrowings 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

35%

39%

49%

31%

24%

21%

4%

6%

7%

15%

18%

12%

15%

13%

11%

M A R C H ' 1 8

D E C ' 1 8

M A R C H ' 1 9

CHOLA - BORROWINGS

Term Loans Bonds CP Other borrowings Securitisation

Page 19: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Borrowing profile & Costs

19

➢ The pull back of liquidity from the market has impacted some financial sectors more than others. HFCs have been the most

impacted considering their inherent asset-liability mismatch and the unavailability of rollovers for the short term maturities. In

comparison, Vehicle finance entities have a better ALM profile with no major cumulative liquidity mismatches. ALM of a sample

large listed player has been provided as of March 2019.

➢ Though there are no mismatches, majority of the short-term funding (1-6 months) is being done through the market borrowing

route. Hence, the short term liquidity squeeze in the debt markets has resulted in most companies re-aligning their borrowing

profiles with higher bank debt.

➢ The cost of funds all the NBFCs has gone up from anywhere between 0.4-1.0% depending on the mix of borrowings.

➢ The NBFCs with higher share of bank debt will see the cost of funds rise significantly from Q4 FY 2019 as the full impact

of the MCLR reset would be realised. Despite the repo rate cuts by RBI, banks have not cut their lending rates much and

hence the cost of funds will trend higher for FY 2020.

➢ Vehicle financiers have started lending at higher yields commencing from Q3 FY 2019. However, the full impact of this

would be felt only post a couple of quarters given that the AUM mix will trend only gradually towards new advances.

Hence, the profitability of the sector is expected to be impacted in the near term due to the liquidity scenario.

ALM Analysis <1 month 1-3 months 3-6 months 6-12 months 1-3 years 3-5 years > 5 years Total

Advances 3% 5% 10% 17% 44% 10% 10% 100%

Borrowings 3% 5% 9% 19% 46% 12% 6% 100%

Cum. Mismatch 0% 0% 1% -1% -3% -5% 0% 0%

% share of market borrowings 81% 74% 61% 37% 20% 30% 65% 35%

Page 20: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Financials – Returns and Capitalisation

20

Page 21: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Return on Assets / Equity

21

Returns across yield spectrum

ROA Tree NBFC 1 NBFC 2 NBFC 3 NBFC 4 NBFC 5 NBFC 6

Yield 14.60% 15.36% 19.30% 22.90% 23.40% 28.50%

Less: Cost of Funds 8.20% 7.90% 8.60% 10.00% 10.30% 11.20%

Less: Opex Ratio (Employee+Dep+Tax) 1.50%4.50%

5.60% 8.50% 9.50% 11.40%

Less: Credit Cost 1.90% 0.70% 0.60% 2.20% 1.20%

ROAA 2.92% 3.06% 4.40% 3.80% 1.40% 4.70%

Leverage 5.95 8.22 3.2 3.1 1.8 2.6

ROAE 17.40% 16.10% 11.00% 12.30% 3.50% 9.70%

➢ The large NBFCs operate both in the used and new vehicle financing spaces and typically fund vehicles with an average age of 5-

6 years. Hence the yields are lower.

➢ Smaller / Emerging NBFCs operate in rural geographies and fund only used vehicles which are close to 10 years of age and

hence the yields are substantially higher.

➢ However, the operating costs for the rural focused NBFCs are substantially higher which restricts the ROA. Also, since the smaller

NBFCs are in a growth phase with substantial branch additions, the overheads are higher

➢ With substantial equity infusion in the recent past, the leverage of the high yield players are lower resulting in lower returns

Page 22: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Capitalisation

22

Recent equity investments in the CV Finance sector

➢ Till 2014, most of the investments were directed towards the larger players like STFC, Chola and M&M. However, over the past 5

years PE / VC funds have been investing in smaller vehicle financiers demonstrating the attractiveness of the market.

➢ The larger NBFCs have substantial accruals which are adequate to meet the regulatory CRAR stipulations

➢ All the CV Finance NBFCs effectively utilize the securitization route given that cost of funds continue to be low considering that

this segment qualifies as PSL. Average % of AUM that is securitized is 20% which provides enough legroom for growth.

Entity Investor(s)Amount invested

($ million)

2018

Kogta Financial Morgan Stanley PE, IIFL 22

Ess Kay Fincorp TPG Growth, Norwest, Evolvence 42

IKF Finance India Business Excellence Fund 4

2017Mahaveer Finance Banyantree Growth 4

Loanzen KAE Capital, Angels 1

2016

Hinduja Leyland Finance Everstone 12

Kogta Financial IIFL Seed 4

Loanzen Angel 0.1

2015IKF Finance India Business Excellence Fund 13

M&M Financial Services Temasek 52

2014 Cholamandalam Apax Partners 103

Page 23: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

IndAS – Impact on the sector

23

Page 24: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Capitalisation

24

Impact of IndAS

Securitisation

➢ Amortised cost accounting for the transferred assets, while continuing to report the same as on BS

➢ No capital relief as it is on BS advances

➢ Should be used as a liquidity tool, an alternate borrowing channel

Line item Previous GAAP Ind AS Impact on Net Worth

Loan Provisioning RBI guidelines ECL (Expected Credit Loss) Increase

Income recognition on

balance sheet assets

Upfront recognition of processing

fees

EIR (Effective interest rate) amortisation of

processing feesDecrease

Financial expensesUpfront recognition of processing

fees on loans availed

EIR amortisation of processing fees on

borrowingsIncrease

Valuation of assetsLoans were booked as at principal

outstanding amountFair valuation approach Increase

Income recognition on

assignment dealsRecognised over loan contract Recognised on transaction date Increase

Employee costs Part of Employee expensesActuarial adjustments reclassified to other

comprehensive incomeNA

Page 25: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Capitalisation

25

Impact of IndAS

➢ There is a sharp reduction in the provision created for PAR 90 assets; however, this is mostly compensated by the higher

provisions demanded for Stage 1 & 2 assets.

➢ STFC’s provision coverage ratio used to be higher pre-IndAS and hence the actual provision outgo has reduced in the ECL

method. However, Chola’s provision outgo has increased mainly towards Stage 1 and Stage 2 assets.

➢ Smaller NBFCs (with net worth greater than Rs 250 crore) will also transition to IndAS shortly and provisions would change basis

current provisioning policy

Cholamandalam Shriram Transport

Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19

GNPA 3.1% 3.0% 2.8% 2.3% 9.0% 8.8% 9.0% 8.3%

NNPA 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.1% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.6%

Provision Coverage 43.9% 44.6% 45.5% 49.8% 71.4% 70.6% 70.9% 71.0%

Standard Asset provision 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%

Total Provision 792 797 831 806 5629 5793 5730 5359

ECL Stage 3 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 2.7% 9.1% 8.6% 8.8% 8.4%

Stage 3 Provision 555 566 576 546 3118 3113 3187 2967

Provision - Stage 1 & 2 367 348 371 384 2341 2604 2651 2604

ECL Provision 922 914 947 930 5459 5717 5838 5571

Difference in Provision 130 117 116 124 -170 -76 108 212

Page 26: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Outlook - CV Finance

26

Page 27: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Outlook – Large NBFCs

27

Outlook Remarks

CV – OEM Sales Subdued

growth

➢ HCV demand has fallen sharply in H2 FY 2019 due to slowdown in industrial

activity. In H2 FY 2020, BS VI related pre-buying will aid in demand recovery.

➢ LCV demand has been robust as it is consumption-led. However, initial stress is

visible in the performance of FMCG majors.

CV Finance – AUM growth Moderate ➢ Overall, disbursement and AUM growth is expected to remain subdued as

compared to FY 2018 & 2019 given the slowdown in CV sales

Asset Quality Moderate ➢ Asset quality of all the players has witnessed improvement in 2018. Key

contributor to the improvement in the asset quality is the diversification of the

overall book away from HCVs and towards LCVs.

➢ However, the freight rates have reduced continually now for more than 6 months

which could result in stress on the smaller operators. Loans are also being offered

at higher yields currently which can slightly aggravate the financial stress

Funding availability &

Capitalisation

Moderate ➢ Given the healthy ALM profile of the Vehicle Finance segment, the prevalent

liquidity stress has not impacted funding availability

➢ The larger NBFCs have continued to tap domestic and foreign sources of capital

to fund their growth

➢ However, a marked change has been witnessed from market borrowings towards

banks for short term liabilities

Page 28: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Outlook – Emerging NBFCs

28

Outlook Remarks

AUM Growth Healthy ➢ Though the new CV sales have declined sharply in the last few quarters, the used

CV market continues to remain active.

➢ Many of the smaller NBFCs operate in geographies where there is scope for

higher growth given the domination of informal finance.

➢ NBFCs like Ess Kay, IKF & Kogta are expected to maintain their growth trajectory

Asset Quality Moderate ➢ Delinquencies of the small and mid-sized NBFCs are at multi-year lows as of

March 2019

➢ Though there could be some uptick in PAR in the near term because of the

current macroeconomic conditions, credit costs are expected to be under control

due to tighter focus on collections / repossession.

Funding availability &

Capitalisation

Relatively

Healthy

➢ The liquidity squeeze has increased the cost of funds of the NBFCs in this space

anywhere from 0.4-1%. Hence the profitability is expected to see a slight

moderation.

➢ Given the scale and appetite, there are lesser issues of debt availability relative to

larger NBFCs

➢ Most of the emerging NBFCs have raised substantial equity capital in the recent

past and are poised for the next phase of growth

Page 29: J u n e 2 0 1 9 - Vivriti Capital

Thank You!