J. Schmetz, R. Stuhlmann, P. Schlüssel and D. Klaes EUMETSAT

Slide: 1

J. Schmetz, R. Stuhlmann, P. Schlüssel and D. Klaes

EUMETSAT

Relevance of

NWP Impact Studies

for Future Satellite

Programmes

CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008

1. Informed decisions on future operational meteorological satellites and related services must be based on careful analyses

2. Important is: i) continuity and robustness of services and ii) evolution of services based on new requirements

3. Recall that optimum use of (satellite) observations (for NWP) requires learning how to use the data

4. An established way to demonstrate usefulness is through impact studies with an NWP system

5. This presentation takes examples from the future EUMETSAT Programmes Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) and Post-EPS (EUMETSAT Polar System) to develop suggestions for an improved support by NWP to future satellite planning and development

Content


Reasons behind improvements in NWP due to satellite data

(from Uccellini, 2007)

Improvement is due to a balance among:

• Observations

• Data Assimilation & Model technology

• Computing resources

Estimated 30 - 40% of improvement from observations (principally global LEO satellite data) and 60 - 70% from data assimilation and modeling techniques and computing resources

=> This suggests that R&D for advanced utilisation of future missions should commence early , i.e. well before launch. This activity should be clearly separated from the development of an operational ground segment


End ofSatellite Life

Satellite Lifetime

Utilisationof data(or return on Investment)

Ideal learning curve

Actual learning curve

Pre-launch investment in research on utilisation will increase the return on investment

Operational readiness(should be shortly after launch)

100%


Recalling the status of EUMETSAT future programmes:

- Meteosat Third Generation (MTG)

- Post-EPS (Metop next)

=> The question here is: How can we help those two satellite programme developments or future programme development in general?


1. Overall Phase A Status

Phase A

EUMETSAT roadmap

20092008 20112007

Phase B Start Phase C/D

2012 20132010

ESA roadmap

20092008 2011

2007

2012 20132010Council Approved the

MTG PP

Council Full Programme

Approval

ESA C-MIN 2008

Approval full Programme

Go-ahead for Phase B

PCR

PRR

Phase A PreparatoryProgramme

PRRPCR


MTGMSG

MOP/MTP

4 observation missions:- Combined Imager: 16 channels

- Infra-Red Sounder- Lightning Imager

-3-axis stabilised satellites - Twin Sat configuration

2,5 and 2,2 t

1 observation mission:-MVIRI: 3 channels-Spinning satellite

800 kg

2 observation missions:- SEVIRI: 12 channels- GERB- Spinning satellite Class 2-ton

1977 20152002

Atmospheric Chemistry Mission (UVS)coordinated with ESA for implementation

via GMES Sentinel 4/5

Implementation of the EUMETSAT Mandate for the Geostationary

Programme

... 30 years of continuous operations achieved ...

MTG will provide continuity of EUMETSAT Services


Coverage Repeat cycle

Full Disk Coverage 18ox18o

60 min

Local Area Cov. 18ox6o 10 min

MTG IR Sounding Mission

MissionBand

IRS-1 700 770

IRS-2 770 980

IRS-3 980 1070

IRS-4 1070 1210

IRS-6 1600 2000

IRS-7 2000 2175

cm-1Frequency range

Main Contribution

CO2

Surface, Clouds

O3

Surface, Clouds

H2O,

CO,

1800 channelsSpec.res. 0,62 1/cm


Coverage Repeat cycle

Full Disk Coverage 18ox18o

30 min

Local Area Cov. 18ox6o 10 min

MTG IR Sounding Mission

Priorities IRS Mission

- Atmospheric dynamic variables with high vertical resolution (e.g. water vapour flux, wind profile, transport of pollutant gases)

- More frequent information on Temperature and Humidity profiles for NWP (regional and global)

- Monitoring of instability / early warning of convective intensity

- Cloud microphysical structure

- support chemical weather and air quality applications

Hyperspectral IR sounding with focus

on time evolution of vertically resolved water vapour structures


Greatly Improved Atmospheric Motion Vectors with hyperspectral sounder (Figure courtesy of C. Velden)

Current GOES High-spectral


Salient points from: Benefits expected from the infra-red sounder (IRS) on Meteosat Third Generation

Report to EUMETSAT Council by a working group: J. Eyre, V. Casse, S. English and J. Pailleux

• MTG-IRS is an infra-red sounder of high spectral resolution which will provide information on atmospheric temperature, humidity and wind at high horizontal, vertical and temporal resolution

• MTG-IRS data will contribute both through assimilation into convective-scale, regional and global NWP models and through nowcasting products. They will be particularly important for observing the advection and convergence of low-level moisture associated with some types of severe weather in Europe


Slides from MTG OSSE study by H. Huang et al.

Xiang-Yu Huang, Hongli Wang, Yongsheng Chen

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A.

Xin Zhang

University of Hawaii, Honolulu. Hawaii, U.S.A.

Stephen A. Tjemkes, Rolf Stuhlmann

EUMETSAT, Darmstadt, Germany

MTG-IRS: An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) on regional scales


Slides from MTG OSSE study by H. Huang et al. Background:

o IRS sounding Mission on MTG will provide high-resolution data which includes temperature and water vapor information.

o Realistic mesoscale details in moisture are important for forecasting convective events (e.g., Koch et al. 1997; Parsons et al. 2000; Weckwerth 2000, 2004).

o Objective: To document the added value of water vapor observations derived from a hyperspectral infrared sounding instrument on a geostationary satellite for regional forecasting.


observed 6-h rainfallobserved 6-h rainfall simulated 6-h rainfallsimulated 6-h rainfall

The observation is on The observation is on Polar Stereographic Projection Grid. Grid.The simulated rainfall is on The simulated rainfall is on Lambert Projection Grid. Grid.The color scales are different.The color scales are different.

0600 UTC 12 Jun0600 UTC 12 Jun 0600 UTC 12 Jun0600 UTC 12 Jun

Slides from MTG OSSE study by H. Huang et al. Case A: 11 June CaseCase A: 11 June Case


Slides from MTG OSSE study by H. Huang et al. Summary

• Three storms are well reproduced in the 5 day nature run.

• The calibration experiment shows that the real and simulated

observations have the similar impacts on the analyses increments

and forecasts differences.

• The forecast skill is improved when MTG-IRS T and q retrieved

profiles are assimilated.

Added comment => Demonstration of impact of novel satellite

observing system is very important work; concerted action within

(to be) established framework is beneficial


1. Post-EPS Status & Roadmap

Long Term Roadmap

Phase BPhase 0 Phase A

IR and MW SoundingVIS/IR Imaging

Missions

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Phase C/D

Other Missions

Prep. Programme

Development and Operation ProgrammeEUMETSATApproval Processes

ESA Programme

ESA Ministerial Conf.go ahead for phase B/C/D

Operations


Post-EPS Candidate Missions

Name Rank

High-Resolution Infrared Sounding (IRS) 3Microwave Sounding (MWS) 3Scatterometry (SCA) 3VIS/IR Imaging (VII) 3Microwave Imaging (MWI) - Precipitation 2Microwave Imaging (MWI) - Ocean and Land 2Radio Occultation Sounding (RO) 2Nadir viewing UV/VIS/NIR - SWIR Sounding (UVNS) 1Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL) 1Multi-viewing, Multi-channel, Multi-polarisation Imaging (3MI) 1Dual View Radiometry (DVR) 1Radar Altimetry (ALT) 1

Note: Rank value 3: highest priority


Study by ECMWF on ‘Observing System Experiments for the evaluation of degraded EPS/Post-EPS instrument scenarios

(1)

• Purpose of study is assessment of detrimental impact of loss Metop instruments on NWP skill

• Performed by ECMWF with operational model and 4-d variational data assimilation

• Study is ongoing• Some preliminary main results for forecast verification for summer

2007: combined effect of withdrawing all Metop instruments is much

larger than impact from withdrawal of individual instruments or all conventional sounders (AMSU-A, MHS and HIRS),

12 – 24 hour tropical humidity scores are negatively affected, after 24 hrs a small positive impact at higher latitudes; this is presumably due to added variability from additional observations


Study by ECMWF on ‘Observing System Experiments for the evaluation of degraded EPS/Post-EPS instrument scenarios

(2)

Conclusion on data withdrawal studies:

• they are useful to substantiate a priority ranking for future satellite missions

• they are useful to evaluate the robustness of the operational satellite observing system


Thought on an operational deployment scenario: ‘Near’ simultaneous observations from polar orbit by

trains of satellites

• 4-D Var assimilation makes need for distribution of observations over time less critical ...

• Process studies and research benefits from near simultaneous observations of many parameters => this will advance NWP model physics

• => Trains of satellites might be an option for operational and research missions … serves operational (NWP) requirements and fosters research on physics?

• Requires detailed studies • Could be topic for CGMS and CEOS


Meteosat-8 monitors deep convective clouds

Area over central Africa

Red pixels:T6.2 > T10.8

How can this be explained?

=> cloud tops overshooting into lower stratosphere - confirmed by “Cloudsat” observations


Cloudsat explains physics in areas with T6.2 > T10.8(from Cloudsat website and adapted by Chung et al., 2007)


• OSEs are a good tool to provide guidance on priorities of future missions and to demonstrate the robustness of the GOS

• WMO should establish a process that guides activities to demonstrate the impact of new satellite missions (e.g. guidance on best practice … as well as coordination of such activities as part of future planning of a ‘Joint space-based observing systems’);

• A WMO concerted effort on performing OSSEs in support of future satellite missions .… this is ongoing

• => Benefits: Will be an additional element in support of the planning and coordination of a future GOS from outset. It could also increase the incentive to perform satellite/instrument development in a joint and cost-effective manner.

Conclusions and Suggestions (1)


• Work toward the ‘full exploitation’ of new elements of a satellite observing system should be part of satellite programme development, i.e. the development of ‘new science’ for the full utilisation of a satellite mission should be part of a satellite development (this ought to be different from the development of the operational ground segment)

• => Benefit: Optimum use is reached quicker, resulting in higher return on investment

• Further issues and questions:

To what extent is it useful to fly future polar research and operational satellite missions as ‘trains’? This would help understanding processes and advance model physics.

Is guidance needed on choices between diversity of polar observations and better temporal coverage with similar/same observation (or how many of a kind is enough)?

Conclusions and Suggestions (2)

Documents

J. Schmetz, R. Stuhlmann, P. Schlüssel and D. Klaes EUMETSAT