Jean-Yves GarnierMieke Reece

International Energy Agency

The Joint Oil Data Initiative A success story in strengthening

international co-operation on statistics

Unusual volatility in oil prices…

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Evolution of oil prices ($/bl)Evolution of oil prices ($/bl)

Blame on statistics?Blame on statistics?

Political Call + Technical Answer = Basis

Bangkok2-3 April 2001

Bangkok2-3 April 2001

Decision taken to launch a 6-month

exercise

Decision taken to launch a 6-month

exercise

Riyadh17-19 Nov. 2000

“Co-operation among relevant international organisations, as well as the participating countries, in improving and timely accessing to energy data is important for market assessment and transparency.”

“Co-operation among relevant international organisations, as well as the participating countries, in improving and timely accessing to energy data is important for market assessment and transparency.”

Political

Ministers at the 7th IEF MeetingMinisters at the 7th IEF Meeting

Technical

Heads of Statistics in Paris

Heads of Statistics in Paris

Paris13-14 Nov. 2000

• There are many problems with definitions, units, methodology

• Organisation can solve some of the problems

• Involvement of countries is essential

• There are many problems with definitions, units, methodology

• Organisation can solve some of the problems

• Involvement of countries is essential

JODI started first as a 6-month exercise (JODE)

Production

Imports

Exports

Closing Change

Refinery Intake

Crude Oil

Stocks

Petroleum Products

LPG Gasoline KeroseneGas/Diesel

OilFuel Oil Total Oil

Refinery Output

Imports

Exports

Closing Change

Demand

Stocks

Simple

Definitions

Simple

Definitions

Choice of units left to organisations

Choice of units left to organisations

A Simple Format (42 data points)

A Simple Format (42 data points) Unit:

Country:Country:Month:Month:

Month -1 and Month -2Month -1 and Month -2

CountryB3

CountryB1

CountryB2

Rollingco-ordinationthrough mails,calls, meetings

Rollingco-ordinationthrough mails,calls, meetings

CountryA1

CountryA3

CountryA2

CountryD1 Country

D2

CountryD3

CountryE2

CountryE1

CountryF1

CountryF2

CountryC1

CountryC2

The initial data collection and co-ordination mechanism

International Energy Forum Conferences

JODI Conferences

Inter-Secretariat Working Group Meetings

International Energy Forum Conferences

JODI Conferences

Inter-Secretariat Working Group Meetings

Amst.May 04

MexicoMay 02

ParisDec 03

52 participating countries within 6 months,

90 one year later…

RiyadhNov. 01

MexicoMay 02

Luxem.Jan 02

ViennaApr 02

MadridJuly 00

BangkokApr 01

ParisNov 00

RiyadhNov 00

ViennaMay 01

ViennaOct 01

Amst.May 04

ViennaJan 03

ParisJuly 02

ParisDec 03

ViennaJun 04

ParisNov 05

RiyadhJan 05

ParisJul 05

RiyadhNov 05

CairoOct 03

BaliOct 04

OsakaSep 02

Luxem.Jan 06

ViennaSep 06

N YorkMay 06

RiyadhNov 06

DohaMay 06

ParisNov 07

ParisOct 08

Luxem.June 08

ViennaMar 09

QuitoJune 09

RomeMay 08

BogotaJuly 10

CancunMar 10

ParisDec 10

Ryadh2011

The need for a more structured co-ordination

CountryB3

CountryB1

CountryB2

JODI DatabaseJODI Database

CountryA1

CountryA3

CountryA2

CountryD1 Country

D2

CountryD3

CountryE2

CountryE1

CountryF1

CountryF2

CountryC1

CountryC2

The 6 organisations ask the IEF Secretariat to coordinate the initiativeThe 6 organisations ask the IEF Secretariat to coordinate the initiative

The JODI databaseFreely available and updated every month

Colored cells give an indication of data qualityColored cells give an indication of data quality

The importance of the political support: On 19 November 2005,

King Abdullah launched the JODI Database in front of 70 Ministers

A triple development

Joint Oil Data Initiative

Organisations: APEC, Eurostat, IEF, IEA, OLADE, OPEC, UNSD, Organisations

(GECF for gas)

Jean-Yves GarnierMieke Reece

International Energy Agency

The Joint Oil Data Initiative A success story in strengthening

international co-operation on statistics

Extension of the initial questionnaire (from 42 to 128 data points) to capture a full oil balance

Production

Imports

Exports

Closing Change

Refinery Intake

Crude Oil

Stocks

Petroleum Products

LPG Gasoline KeroseneGas/Diesel

OilFuel Oil Total Oil

Refinery Output

Imports

Exports

Closing Change

Demand

Stocks

NGLNaphthaProduct transfersStatistical Difference

The initial template

The extended template

Launch of a JODI Gas Initiative

GECF to collect gas data from its member countries

OPEC decided not to participate in JODI Gas

Only 24 data points (one product)

1st JODI Gas conference in Moscow in October 2010

Request from the IEF Ministerial Meeting in Cancun (May 2010) A draft spreadsheet questionnaire has been prepared The content, the format and the definitions are still under discussion between

Partner Organisations

Annual Data Questionnaire: Oil 2009 * Crude Oil Reserves: billion barrels(billion tons) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Oil production Capacity: 1000b/d Crude Capacity NGL+Other Liquids Total Oil Refining Capacity: 1000b/d Distillation Conversion+Treating Condensates (Desulfurization) Oil Installed Export Capacity: 1000b/d

Annual Data Questionnaire: Natural Gas 2009* Natural Gas Reserves: billion cubic meters (BCM) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Natural Gas Production Capacity: (BCM) Natural Gas Installed Export Capacity: (BCM) LNG(MT) Pipeline (BCM) *Note: As January 1st.

One word on JODI Capacity

Small things which make a big difference

The Smiley Faces…

A user friendly web site www.jodidata.org

A Manual for both data providers and users

1st JODI Training------14-19/08/06------OLADEIEFSIEAOPECUNSDIMF

1st JODI Training------14-19/08/06------OLADEIEFSIEAOPECUNSDIMF

2nd JODI Training------29/01-2/02/07------IEFSEurostatIEAOPECIMF

2nd JODI Training------29/01-2/02/07------IEFSEurostatIEAOPECIMF

CaracasCaracas

JohannesburgJohannesburg

3rd Training for MENA countries23-26 October 2007 in Algiers3rd Training for MENA countries23-26 October 2007 in Algiers

AlgiersAlgiers

CaspianCaspianSeaSea

APEC++APEC++

2009 Programme of TrainingOctober 2009, hosted by Turkey2009 Programme of TrainingOctober 2009, hosted by Turkey

4th JODI Training------2008------IEFSAPECIEAOPECIMF

4th JODI Training------2008------IEFSAPECIEAOPECIMF

2009 Programme of TrainingDecember 20092009 Programme of TrainingDecember 2009

2010 Programme of TrainingJuly, hosted by Columbia2010 Programme of TrainingJuly, hosted by Columbia

BogotaBogota

A world wide JODI training programme

Internship also available

A few words to concludeImproving transparency does not happen overnight and all parties need to co-operate

Thank youThank you

Developing the JODI initiative went much beyond data collecting: cooperation between organisations, industry-countries-organisations, raising the profile of statistics and statisticians, harmonisation, etc.

A few key words: commitment, compromise, hard work, expertise, political support, a need for driving force

Has JODI reduced the oil price volatility? Difficult to answer until full transparency is achieved but one thing is sure, the database is widely used and analysts no longer put the blame on statistics and statisticians…

There are still a few major issues: a few countries do not report stocks data for confidentiality reasons, reliability in some key flows and products, etc.