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    $$

    Pre!ace

    Wh We Ha#e to 'e at the Topo! +,r *ame

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    -

    Which Asset C"ass Is 'etter a",e Toda /

    Stocks: Bonds:

    S&P 500: 1355S&P earnings (TTM): $66

    10-year Treasury: 3 5!"

    S&P 500 earnings source is Barron#s Market data as o % r ' !00

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    0

    Stoc1s 'etter a",e Than 'onds2P3E 'asis

    Stocks: Bonds:

    !1* (1355+$66) ! * (1+3 5!)

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    P+, Mis eads . ,cono/y %t .n ection Point

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    4

    Rea" (%56ear P3E7 The Stoc15'ond *ap Narrows

    Stocks BondsS&P 500

    ea 10- ear ,arnings (a2g )Bond yie d (10-year Treasury)

    1355$5'

    3 5!"

    P+, !3* ! *

    Source: .rrationa ,*u eranceco/ ,arningsPo4er co/

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    e etiti2e yc es o ,nt usias/ and 7es air

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    Wi"" Histor Repeat/

    Pea1 Tro,gh Contraction

    7ate10 r

    P+, S&P 7ate10 r

    P+, S&P earsS&P

    %8

    6+1'01 $89 !3' 1!+1'!0 89 9 (:.8 54;

    '+1'!' --9 3 3 6+1'3! 49 9 -.

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    55- r %2g 300 s % o2e urrent 3 5!" ie d

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    I! (%56ear Re#erts) Then 'onds +!!er More a",e

    Stocks BondsS&P 500

    ea 10- ear ,arnings (a2g )Bond ie d (55-year a2g )

    1355$5'

    6 "

    P+, !3* 16*

    %s t e cost o /oney rises cor orate earnings and P+, /u ti es getunis ed

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    We Need to 'e at Top o! +,r *ame

    . /arket re2erts to eit er 4e

    a2e i) e* icit ear /arket o 30 today or ii) decadeo attis S&P 4 i e earnings catc -u?e do not a2e ene it o P+, e* ansion ca 1' !-1''' 4 en it c i/ ed to * ro/ 9* and roduced a

    13" %8.ntroduce ,arnings Po4er 1-!-3 Process to e youna2igate c o y in2est/ent 4aters

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    esources:

    Pro o ert S i er#s 4e site:

    tt :++444 irrationa e*u erance co/+

    To 2ie4 t e ea 10- ear P, 7ata c ick ere:

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    Section I

    The *rowth Trap

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    Man Wa s to Ma1e Mone on Wa"" Street

    Aet-net

    Su/-o -t e- arts

    isk ar itrage

    ata yst

    %cti2ist

    S ort se ingTec nica ana ysis

    *rowth

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    *rowth Stoc17 Compan with Rising EPS

    ,PS to $1 ! in 1''' ro/ $0 09 in 1''0

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    (&(&

    Three =-> + stac"es Con!ronting *rowth In#estor

    1 Poorearnings

    ua ity

    8%%P inco/e state/ent as our ( ) structurai/itations So Eust ecause a co/ any is ro ita e

    in t e traditiona sense o t e 4ord does not /eant at it as aut entic earnings o4er

    ! o/ etiti2ead2antage4anes

    Success u co/ anies attract i/itators T is is goodor consu/ers ad or o4ners

    3 Pre/iu/ tointrinsic 2a ue

    ?e redict y e*tra o ation so gro4t stocks o tenget us ed eyond rea 4ort

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    (:(:

    Section II

    + stac"e (7 Poor EarningsB,a"it

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    $%$%

    The *AAP Income Statement

    To create co/ ara i ity a co/ anies o o4 genera y acce tedaccounting rinci a s (8%%P)

    o ert#s u es o @rder or cor orate %/erica? en you o en an annua re ort 10-F or 10-G and ook at

    inancia s state/ents t at#s 8%%PMany in2estors take 8%%P at ace 2a ue> t ey t ink ,PS is < ard=

    nu/ er ikeH

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    H eig t o Ien4ay#s 8reen Monster (39 eet)

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    $$$$

    ',t EPS is a So!tD N,m er

    8%%P inco/e state/ent as our ( ) structura i/itations % do ar o earnings or one co/ any#s /ay not e co/ ara e toa do ar o ,PS ro/ anot er co/ any or or sa/e co/ any ro/one year to ne*t

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    $-$-

    *AAP P ?Fs Go,r =0> Str,ct,ra" ?imitations

    1 .n2est/ent in !i9ed capita" is ignored so 4 en ca ita s endingis greater t an de reciation t e co/ any /ay e ro ita e on

    8%%P asis ut s ort cas! @/its in2est/ent in wor1ing capita" so 4 en recei2a es and

    in2entory gro4 aster t an aya es and accrued e* enses t eco/ any /ay e ro ita e on 8%%P asis ut s ort cas

    -. Intangi "es ike &7 ad2ertising e/ oyee education are

    e* ensed e2en t oug t e ene its 4i ast /ore t an oneaccounting eriod

    0. Stoc1ho"dersF e ,it is ree e2en t oug o4ners a2e ano ortunity cost

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    $0$0

    *AAP P ?Fs Go,r =0> Str,ct,ra" ?imitations

    (. In#estment in !i9ed capita" is ignored) so when capita"spending is greater than depreciation the compan ma e

    pro!ita "e on *AAP asis ,t short cash.! @/its in2est/ent in wor1ing capita" so 4 en recei2a es and

    in2entory gro4 aster t an aya es and accrued e* enses t eco/ any /ay e ro ita e on 8%%P asis ut s ort cas

    -. Intangi "es ike &7 ad2ertising e/ oyee education are

    e* ensed e2en t oug t e ene its 4i ast /ore t an oneaccounting eriod

    0. Stoc1ho"dersF e ,it is ree e2en t oug o4ners a2e ano ortunity cost

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    $8

    Notes on Capita" Spending

    Ii*ed ca ita is ui dings trucks te e one net4orks etc? en a co/ any uys i*ed ca ita it s ends t e cas today ut

    or accounting ur oses de reciates out ay o2er asset#s e* ecteduse u i e 7e reciation ena es co/ anies to /atc currentsa es 4it current e* enses and uture sa es 4it uturee* enses. ca e* is greater t an de reciation a co/ any /akesin2est/ent in i*ed ca ita .n2est/ent in i*ed ca ita is a use ocas T is cas out ay as to co/e ro/ so/e4 ere> e gc ecking account i uidate ot er assets orro4ings or stocksa es ?i in2est/ent roduce ig er uture sa es cost sa2ings;Be4are o ca ita -intensi2e co/ anies T e !0" 4it ig estca ita s ending gro4t agged /arket y 1 5" a year during1'93-1''6 4 i e o4est !0" eat /arket y 1" a year (PauStur/ S/art Money Dune !005)

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    T eStreet co/ (TS M)

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    $

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    $&$&

    E9pensing In#estment in Gi9ed Capita" s,a"" Red,ces

    *AAP Earnings

    T eStreet co/ (TS M)($/ s) 8%%P ,* enseAet inco/e (inc $3M o de reciation)

    - Ii*ed ca ita in2est/entK %dEusted net inco/e

    $31

    n+a$31

    $31

    !$!'

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    $:$:

    Side ar7 Are Ac ,isitions a Cape9 E ,i#a"ent/

    T eStreet co/ (TS M)(/i ions) 8%%P ,* enseAet inco/e

    - Ii*ed ca ita in2est/ent- !0" o !009 %c uisition ($30+5 years)K %dEusted net inco/e

    $31

    n+an+a

    $31

    $31

    !6

    $!3

    %c uisitions are 1) a use o cas !) a su stitute or ca itas ending and 3) t eir ayo is uncertain 7e reciate dea s o2er 5years

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    -%-%

    *AAP P ?Fs Go,r =0> Str,ct,ra" ?imitations

    1 .n2est/ent in i*ed ca ita is ignored so 4 en ca ita s ending isgreater t an de reciation t e co/ any /ay e ro ita e on

    8%%P asis ut s ort cas$. +mits in#estment in wor1ing capita") so when recei#a "es

    and in#entor grow !aster than pa a "es and accr,ede9penses the compan ma e pro!ita "e on *AAP asis ,tshort cash.

    -. Intangi "es ike &7 ad2ertising e/ oyee education aree* ensed e2en t oug t e ene its 4i ast /ore t an oneaccounting eriod

    0. Stoc1ho"dersF e ,it is ree e2en t oug o4ners a2e ano ortunity cost

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    -(

    Notes on Wor1ing Capita"

    ?orking ca ita assets inc ude recei2a es in2entoryot er current assets ( ut not cas /arketa e

    securities)> 4orking ca ita ia i ities are aya esaccrued e* enses ?orking ca ita is ? % - ? J? i e it is good to a2e /ore assets t an ia i ities4 en 4orking ca ita increases ro/ one year to ne*tt is is an in2est/ent in 4orking ca ita

    .n2est/ent in 4orking ca ita is use o cas t at doesnot a ear in 8%%P inco/e state/ent Sti ike i*edca ita in2est/ent it as to e inanced so/e o4

    % ro ita e co/ any can su er i uidity s ueeCe i itcan#t co ect recei2a es and+or se in2entory in ti/e y

    /anner

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    rocs ( @L)

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    ----

    Str,ct,ra" ?imitation $7 In#estment in Wor1ing Capita"

    rocs .nc ( @L)($/i s) 1!+31+06 1!+31+09

    ?orking ca ita assets:

    ecei2a es.n2entoryTota ? assets

    ?orking ca ita ia i ities:

    Paya es %ccrued ,* ensesTota ? ia i ities

    Aet 4orking ca ita.n2est/ent in net 4orking ca ita

    $666

    $15!

    $31$95

    $99

    $153!

    $ 01

    $ 359$1 0

    $!61$1

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    -0-0

    E9pensing In#estment in Wor1ing Capita" s,a""Red,ces *AAP Earnings

    rocs .nc ($/i s) !009

    Aet inco/e- .n2est/ent in 4orking ca itaK %dEusted net inco/e

    $161$(16)

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    -8-8

    Sometimes WC is a So,rce o! Cash

    B ue Ai e (A.J,) ($/i s) !009

    Aet inco/e- .n2est/ent in 4orking ca itaK %dEusted net inco/e

    $19(1 )$31

    % negati2e in2est/ent in 4orking ca ita is 4onder u > it#s ike a2inga Eo t at ays you today or 4ork you 4i do in t4o 4eeks

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    -4-4

    Str,ct,ra" ?imitation $7 In#estment in Wor1ing Capita"

    B ue Ai e (A.J,)($/i s) 1!+31+06 1!+31+09

    ?orking ca ita assets:

    ecei2a es.n2entoryTota ? assets

    ?orking ca ita ia i ities:

    Paya es %ccrued ,* ensesTota ? ia i ities

    Aet 4orking ca ita.n2est/ent in net 4orking ca ita

    $!15

    $19

    $699$9

    $(59)

    $!1

    $!5

    $ 610$'6

    $(91)$(1 )

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    - Str,ct,ra" ?imitations

    1 .n2est/ent in i*ed ca ita is ignored so 4 en ca ita s ending isgreater t an de reciation t e co/ any /ay e ro ita e on

    8%%P asis ut s ort cas! @/its in2est/ent in 4orking ca ita so 4 en recei2a es and

    in2entory gro4 aster t an aya es and accrued e* enses t eco/ any /ay e ro ita e on 8%%P asis ut s ort cas

    -. Intangi "es "i1e R ) ad#ertising) emp"o ee ed,cation are

    e9pensed e#en tho,gh the ene!its wi"" "ast more than oneacco,nting period.Stock o ders# e uity is ree e2en t oug o4ners a2e ano ortunity cost

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    -&

    Notes on Intangi "es

    .ntangi e gro4t - roducing initiati2es are &7 ad2ertising ande/ oyee education ?e ca t e/

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    8oog e (8@@8)

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    0%0%

    epreciation Intangi "es +#er E9pected se!," ?i!es,a"" Increases *AAP Pro!its

    8oog e (8@@8)($/ s) - !009 8%%P 7e reciate

    Pro it e ore &7- &7K @ erating inco/e.ncrease (")

    $9 !0! 1!0$5 0

    $9 !01 316$5

    16"

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    0(0(

    Str,ct,ra" ?imitation -7 Intangi "es are E9pensed

    8oog e (8@@8)($/ s) !005 !006 !009&7 (8%%P) $5'' $1 !!' $! 1!0

    7e reciation eriod 3 3 37e reciation $!00 $ 10 $909

    ear 1ear !ear 3

    Tota

    $!0013!

    $ 10!0013!

    $90910

    !00$1 316

    7e reciation eriod is t e use u i e o t e asset . you de reciateo2er t ree years t en you need t ree years# 4ort o &7

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    0$0$

    *AAP P ?Fs Go,r =0> Str,ct,ra" ?imitations

    1 .n2est/ent in i*ed ca ita is ignored so 4 en ca ita s ending isgreater t an de reciation t e co/ any /ay e ro ita e on

    8%%P asis ut s ort cas! @/its in2est/ent in 4orking ca ita so 4 en recei2a es and

    in2entory gro4 aster t an aya es and accrued e* enses t eco/ any /ay e ro ita e on 8%%P asis ut s ort cas

    3 .ntangi es ike &7 ad2ertising e/ oyee education are

    e* ensed e2en t oug t e ene its 4i ast /ore t an oneaccounting eriod0. Stoc1ho"dersF e ,it is !ree e#en tho,gh owners ha#e an

    opport,nit cost.

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    0-

    Notes on Stoc1ho"dersF E ,it

    % co/ anies inanced y co/ ination o de t ande uity

    7e t co/es ro/ anks ond o ders> e uity ro/o4ners 2ia retained earnings (8%%P ro its /inusdi2idends)7e t an e* ense ut e uity is ree ? y; Aoncas

    cost> a so di erent o4ners a2e di erent re uiredrates o returnBut 8%%P- ro ita e co/ any /ay destroy 2a ue i youe* ense o4ner o ortunity costs

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    P ay oy (PJ%)

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    P ay oy#s Stock is Ao Miss % ri

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    0404

    Str,ct,ra" ?imitation 07 Stoc1ho"dersF E ,it

    P ay oy (PB%)($/ s) - !009 8%%P

    (e uity ree)

    ,* ense, uity

    Pre-.nterest inco/e (,B.T N in2est/ents)- .nterest - 7e t @n y ($115)- .nterest O 7e t & , uity ($! 3 * 9 1")K Pre-ta* ro it

    $1!5

    n+a$9

    $1!n+a!0

    $( )

    . t e accounting treat/ent or e uity is sa/e as de t t en re-ta*ro it turns into a re-ta* oss

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    0<

    Estimating P"a o Fs Interest K e t E ,it =(3$>

    %2g !ears

    1a ita

    ?eig ting

    ! %T ost

    o ca ita

    1*!?td %2g ost

    o a ita

    7e t, uityTota

    $11516

    $! 3

    1"5'"

    100"

    ! "10 0"

    1 !"5 '"9 1"

    Preta* cost o de t K $5 /i ion+$115 /i ion K 3"> a ter-ta* cost K3" * (1-35") K ! " ost o e uity K 10-year Treasury N 500

    or /ini/u/ 10"

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    0:

    S,mmar

    Structura i/itationH %s a resu tH

    1 @/its in2est/ent ini*ed ca ita o/ any /ay e ro ita e on a 8%%Pasis ut run out o cas i ca e* is /ucigger t an de reciation

    ! @/its in2est/ent in4orking ca ita

    o/ any /ay e ro ita e on a 8%%Pasis ut run out o cas i it can#t co ect on

    recei2a es or i in2entory doesn#t se3 .ntangi es aree* ensed

    Pena iCes or4ard- ooking co/ aniesin2esting or ig er uture sa es earnings

    , uity as a cost T e /ore e uity a ir/ e/ oys as " totaca ita t e ess intrinsica y ro ita e it is

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    8%

    How o We Gi9 These Str,ct,ra" ?imitations/

    7o 4e re- ui d inco/e state/ent to 1) e* ense in2est/ent in I!) e* ense in2est/ent in ? 3) de reciate intangi es and )e* enses stock o ders# e uity;?e cou d ut t en 4e create ot er ro e/s> e g 4e ena iCeco/ anies t at are in2esting in I ? % so 4 o is ar iter ocost o e uity; (, 2is sti a i2e so/e t ink )Ao sing e inco/e state/ent is cure-a .nstead et#s add t estrengt s o t4o a ternate P&J#s t at a2e een de2ised in recentyears to our ana ysisH ree cas o4 and ,cono/ic a ue %dded

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    8(8(

    Metric Wars7 Which A"ternate P ? is 'est/

    Gree Cash G"ow Economic a",e Added %dEust/ents 1 ,* enses in2est/ent in i*ed

    ca ita ! ,* enses in2est/entin 4orking ca ita

    3 .ntangi es de reciated o2eruse u i e Stock o ders# e uity isan e* ense

    8oa Se - und; % co/ any does so4 en it roduces /ore cas

    ro/ ongoing o erations t an itconsu/es

    reate 2a ue; % co/ any does so4 en it roduces a return on ca itat at is greater t an its cost

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    8$

    Aot t is

    Ben8ra a/

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    8-

    T is Ben8ra a/Q

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    8080

    'enLamin *raham =(&:05(:

    8raduated R! in c ass ro/ o u/ ia in 1'1 at age !0 t en o eredteac ing Eo s in ,ng is /at e/atics and i oso y de art/ents.nstead 4ent to ?a Street Aear y ruined y s ecu ation e ore de2ising

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    8484

    In Honor o! *raham

    Persona ity Pessi/isticco//ercia

    anker

    @ ti/istic 2entureca ita ist

    .nco/estate/ent

    e!ensi#e ( ree cas o4)

    Enterprising (,cono/ic a ue

    %dded)

    To earn/ore

    Cash Flow andSecurity Analysis

    acke and Ji2nat

    The Quest For ValueSte4art

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    8

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    8&8&

    Step (a o! -7 Three Income Statements

    Enron Corp year ending 7ec 31 !000 (/i ions e*ce t er-s are)

    .nco/e state/ent e!ensi#e *AAP Enterprising

    e2enue- @8S S8&% ot er 5 In#estment !i9ed capita" = (>5 In#estment wor1ing capita" = $>5 Intangi "es = ->5 Interest e9pense = 0>- @t er

    - Ta*esTota e* ensesPro it ( oss)

    $100 9 '' 36

    -)888()%

    $100 9 '' 36

    n+an+a

    03

    (!15)

    3$'' '3&:4

    $100 9 '' 36

    n+an+a

    Source: o/ any re orts ,arningsPo4er co/

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    8:8:

    Step ( o! -7 B,a"it o! Pro!its

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    4%4%

    Step (c o! -7 Earnings Power Chart

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    4$4$

    Section III

    J,st Go,r T pes o!CompaniesD

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    4-4-

    ?ower5?e!t 'o97 Enron

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    4040

    pper5?e!t 'o97 Hea"thSo,th =H?SH> =down &-; !rom -%pea1 in mid5(::&>

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    4848

    ?ower5Right 'o97 Orisp Oreme on,ts =OO > =down&&; !rom 8% pea1 in mid5$%%->

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    4444

    Coa" Mine Canar

    e!ensi#e7 Enterprising7 'oth7

    %utoCone (#'!-#'') Bet e e/ Stee (#'6-#00) % ou ea t & Beauty (#' -#0!)

    entennia Tec no ogies (#'3-#'9) Boston Market (#'3-#'9) Bo/ ay o/ any (#'1-#' )

    MJ 8rou (#'!-#'9) F, estaurants (#'5-#'9) Enron (#'6-#00)

    ,7S (#00-#0!) ro4n ork & Sea (#'5-#00) Po aroid (#'5-#00)

    Iine ost (#'5-#'6) Hea"thSo,th (#'6-#01) Sun ea/ (#'3-#' )

    8a T e (#'6-#0!) .kon @ ice (#'3-#' ) ?arnaco (#' -#'')

    8ate4ay (#'9-#01) ite-%id (#'5-#00) Lero* (#'6-#00)

    Orisp Oreme on,ts (#0!-#0 ) S er4in-?i ia/s (#'1-#00)

    Jucent Tec no ogies (#'9-#00) ?or d o/ (#'9-#01)

    Measure/ent S ecia ties (#' -#01)

    Tyco (3+00-1!+01)

    nited %ir ines (#' -#01)

    Source: ,arningsPo4er co/

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    4

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    &%&%

    *armin7 (%)%%% grows to 00)%%%

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    &$&$

    Pa che97 (%)%%% grows to $8

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    &-&-

    B,a"it S stems7 (%)%%% grows to

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    &8&8

    Not A"" *reat Stoc1s Are Staircase7 (%O to $%%O

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    &4&4

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    'est Stoc17 (::

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    T e 4inner is: ansen Aatura

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    &&

    (%)%%% grows to $.4 mi""ion

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    &:

    A,thentic Earnings Power Earnings Power Staircase

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    :%:%

    Section I

    P,tting It A"together7 TheEarnings Power (5$5- Process

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    :(:(

    Three =-> + stac"es Con!ronting *rowth In#estor

    1 Poorearnings

    ua ity

    8%%P inco/e state/ent as our ( ) structurai/itations So Eust ecause a co/ any is ro ita e

    in t e traditiona sense o t e 4ord does not /eant at it as aut entic earnings o4er

    ! o/ etiti2ead2antage4anes

    Success u co/ anies attract i/itators T is is goodor consu/ers ad or o4ners

    3 Pre/iu/ tointrinsic 2a ue ?e redict y e*tra o ation so gro4t stocks o tenget us ed eyond rea 4ort

    @ur ase Study: %/erican ,ag e (%,@)

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    :-:-

    High"ights

    Ma - ased retai er 4it '!6 stores in S anadaT ree conce ts: %/erican ,ag e aerie and Martin N @sa

    G#d in Pitts urgIounded 1'99

    anked R!

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    :0:0

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    1 Poorearnings

    ua ity

    8%%P inco/e state/ent as our ( ) structurai/itations So Eust ecause a co/ any is ro ita e

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    ! o/ etiti2ead2antage4anes

    Success u co/ anies attract i/itators T is is goodor consu/ers ad or o4ners

    3 Pre/iu/ tointrinsic 2a ue ?e redict y e*tra o ation so gro4t stocks o tenget us ed eyond rea 4ort

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    :8

    Step ( o! -7 Earnings Power Staircase

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    :4

    Step (c o! -7 Earnings Power Staircase

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    : + stac"es Con!ronting *rowth In#estor

    1 Poorearnings

    ua ity

    8%%P inco/e state/ent as our ( ) structurai/itations So Eust ecause a co/ any is ro ita e

    in t e traditiona sense o t e 4ord does not /eant at it as aut entic earnings o4er

    ! o/ etiti2ead2antage4anes

    Success u co/ anies attract i/itators T is is goodor consu/ers ad or o4ners

    3 Pre/iu/ tointrinsic 2a ue ?e redict y e*tra o ation so gro4t stocks o tenget us ed eyond rea 4ort

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    :&:&

    Step $ o! -7 Competiti#e Ad#antage

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    ::::

    MorningstarFs 0 T pes o! Competiti#e Ad#antage

    T pes E9amp"es1 Jo4-cost ro2ider ?a -Mart 7e (;)! ig -s4itc ing costs Payc e* Microso t

    3 .ntangi es (e g atents/inds are ocations addicti2e

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    % tria (P i i Morris) Best Buy

    7isney Aet4ork e ect eBay icago Merc

    Most o/ etiti2e %d2 nt ges ? ne o2er Ti/e ? o s

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    Most o/ etiti2e %d2antages ?ane o2er Ti/e: ? o .sBui ding t e 13 - orkscre4 ersion;

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    (%(%

    American Eag"e Has Mi"dD Competiti#e Ad#antage/

    o/ etiti2e ad2antage ,*a/ es1 Jo4-cost ro2ider no! ig -s4itc ing costs no

    3 .ntangi es (e g atents/inds are ocations addicti2e

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    Day Sc ottenstein is ong-ti/eoard c air> and a/i y#s

    interests are a igned 4it outside

    stock o ders But not t e /ostdura e co/ etiti2e ad2antage

    Aet4ork e ect no

    . no co/ etiti2e ad2antage kee your orecast eriod s ort

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    (%(%

    Three =-> + stac"es Con!ronting *rowth In#estor

    1 Poorearnings

    ua ity

    8%%P inco/e state/ent as our ( ) structurai/itations So Eust ecause a co/ any is ro ita e

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    3 Pre/iu/ tointrinsic 2a ue ?e redict y e*tra o ation so gro4t stocks o tenget us ed eyond rea 4ort

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    (%

    Ta1e Ana" st Gorecasts With a *rain o! Sa"t

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    (%

    Step - o! -7 American Eag"eFs Intrinsic a",e

    Jo4 Mediu/ ig

    T is ear ,arnings - " - " 50;

    Ae*t ear ,arnings 9" 10" (-;,arnings ears 3 & 5 9" 11" (0.-;

    ,arnings ears 6-10 3" " 5 6"

    ,arnings Ter/ina Period 3" 3" 3"

    S are ount O annua gro4t -1" -1" -1".ntrinsic 2a ue (inc net cas ) $36 $ 1 $ 9

    ?eig ting 0" 35" !5"

    ?td %2g .ntrinsic a ue 0%

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    (%

    a",ation7 8 Margins o! Sa!et

    1 ost o e uity (discount rate) is 10"! ig gro4t K consensus> Jo4 Mediu/ gro4t is

    50" 95" o ig3 8ro4t in years 6-10 is 50" o years 1-5

    .ntrinsic 2a ue esti/ate 0" ased on Jo4 8ro4t35" on Mediu/ and Eust !5" on consensus

    5 Buy 4 en co/ anies se s at 50"-90" o intrinsic2a ue de ending u on ua ity o earnings anddura i ity o co/ etiti2e ad2antage

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    (%

    American Eag"eFs Price5Intrinsic a",e =PI >

    Stock rice

    .ntrinsic a ueK P.

    $19

    $ 03"

    %ut entic earnings o4er on sa e: %t $19 you get $1 o

    intrinsic 2a ue or $0 3

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    (%

    American Eag"eFs E9pected Ret,rn

    ,* ected eturn K ($ 0 - $19)+$19K 13 "

    UT e o4er your rice-intrinsic 2a ue (P. ) t e ig er youre* ected return (, )

    UPort o io /anage/ent: ank a your co/ anies y , ro/ igto o4 7oes t e co/ any you are t inking o uying o er aig er , t an t e o4est-ranked co/ any you o4n; . not t en

    4 y uy it;

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    (%

    Se"" iscip"ine

    U ,arnings ua ity: Gua ity o ro its er/anent ydeteriorate

    U Joss o co/ etiti2e ad2antage

    U Stock c i/ s to intrinsic 2a ue

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    (%(%

    S,mmar

    ? y

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    WhatFs 6o,r Process/

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    ((

    A#oid *rowth TrapD 5 se M,"tip"e Margins o! Sa!et

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    Bonus Material for Bryant College 7

    5 se!," Writing Tips

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    ((((

    se!," Writing Tips

    1 .ts 2s it#s

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    ((((

    It’s Earnings That Count ( Mc*raw5Hi"") $%%0>

    a enges con2entiona 4isdo/ t atco/ any as

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    ((((

    'iograph

    Hewitt Heiserman Jr. conceived the Earnings Power Chart and theEarnings Power Staircase, which are featured in his book "It's Earnings

    hat Count" ! c#raw$Hi%%, & (). He a%so writes a co%umn on earnings

    *ower for +ea% one .com. Heiserman graduated from -en on Co%%egewith istinction in Histor , and a%so received the /acu%t 0ward for

    istinguished 0chievement. Heiserman is a member of the 1ostonSecurit 0na% st Societ and the C/0 Institute. Heiserman's work onearnings 2ua%it has a**eared in heStreet.com, 1usiness3eek, C1S

    arket3atch, 1usiness &. , 1etter Investing, he ot%e /oo%, Com*%ete#rowth Investor, 1arron's, and the Haverford rust Com*an 0dviser.Heiserman has s*oken to the 4ew 5ork Societ of Securit 0na% sis, the1oston Securit 0na% sts Societ , /ide%it anagement an +esearch, the1abson Investment anagement 0ssociation, the 0merican 0ssociation ofIndividua% Investors, and Com*%ete #rowth Investors on "1en #rahamand the #rowth Investor." Heiserman is a finance instructor for #erson$6ehrman #rou*. He is a trustee for a %and conservation grou*. o %earn

    more, visit www.EarningsPower.com

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    e4itt eiser/anV,arningsPo4er co/

    444 ,arningsPo4er co/

    B,estions/