Item 04e - Grid Operations and Planning Report · 2014. 6. 23. · September 2011: Generic Transmission Limits (GTLs) GTLs Sep 10 Days CSC Jul 11 Days GTLs Aug 11 Days GTLs Sep 11

Grid Operations and Planning Report

Kent Saathoff

Board of Directors MeetingBoard of Directors MeetingOctober 18, 2011

Content

• SummarySummary

• September 2011 Operations– Peak Demand: Actual vs. Forecast

On-line Resources: Total at Peak and Wind– CPS1 Monthly Performance– Historical Peak and Minimum Loads– Day-Ahead Load Forecast PerformanceDay Ahead Load Forecast Performance– Reliability Unit Commitment Capacity (RUC) by weather zone – Generic Transmission Limits (GTLs)– Advisories, Watches and EEAs

Si ifi t S t I id t– Significant System Incidents

• Planning Activities– Summary– Generation Interconnection Requests– Wind Capacity– Reliability Must Run Generation Update– Gas Curtailment Risk Study Update

2

– Drought Effect on Generation

October 18, 2011 ERCOT Public

Summary

• September 2011 OperationsSeptember 2011 Operations– The peak demand of 63,160 MW on September 03 was more than the mid-term

forecast peak of 61,915 MW and more than the September 2010 actual peak demand of 58,201 MW.

– Day-ahead load forecast error for September was 2.70%– Advisory for Physical Responsive Capability (PRC) below 3000 MW issued 19

days– No Watches for PRC under 2500 MW issuedo atc es o C u de 500 ssued– No Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) events issued

• Planning Activities– 185 active generation interconnect requests totaling over 59,000 MW as

of September 30, 2011. Five fewer requests and 1,000 MW less than August 31, 2011.9 400 MW i d it li S t b 30 2011 N h f– 9,400 MW wind capacity on line September 30, 2011. No change from August 31, 2011

– Determined Greens Bayou 5 not needed for RMR service

3 ERCOT PublicOctober 18, 2011

September 2011 Daily Peak Demand: Hourly Average Actual vs. Forecast, Wind Day-Ahead COPs & On-line Capacity at Peak

80,000 Actual Peak LoadA t l O li C it

70,000

Actual Online CapacityActual Wind OutputERCOT Load Day-Ahead ForecastWind Day-Ahead COPs

Peak Demand for the Month: 63,135 MW @ 09/02/11 HE17:00

50,000

60,000

40,000

MW

20,000

30,000

10,000

4

Note: All data are hourly averages during the peak load hour obtained from COPs, and EMMS.ERCOT PublicOctober 18, 2011

0

September 2011: Actual Wind Output plus Curtailments vs. Wind Day-Ahead COPs for All Hours

5000

% of Hours when Estimated Uncurtailed Wind Output >= COP HSLs (Target = 50%)

45%

4000

4500

3000

3500

2000

2500MW

500

1000

1500

0

500

Operating Day

5

Note: QSEs must use the AWST 50% probability of exceedance forecast as the HSL in their COPs

ERCOT PublicOctober 18, 2011

Daily Averaged Aggregated Wind Output Estimated Wind Curtailment Daily Averaged Day‐Ahead COP HSL

September 2011 ERCOT’s CPS1 Monthly Performance

170170

160

170

160

170CPS1 12 Month Rolling Average = 146.88%

140

150

140

150

vera

ge

130130CPS

1 Av

110

120

110

120

100100


Monthly Average 12 Month Rolling Average

September 2011: Monthly Peak Actual Demand

80,000

70,000

20102011

Peak Demand is Peak Interval Demand

50,000

60,000

MW

30,000

40,000 MW

10 000

20,000

-

10,000


Month

September 2011: Monthly Minimum Actual Demand

40,000

35,000

40,000 2010

2011Minimum Demand is Valley Interval Demand

25,000

30,000

15,000

20,000 MW

10,000

-

5,000


Month

Day-Ahead Load Forecast Performance in September 2011

Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) for ERCOT Mid-Term Load Forecast (MTLF) Run at 14:00 Day Ahead

2008MAPE

2009MAPE

2010MAPE

2011MAPE

September 2011MAPE

AverageAnnual 3.30 3.11 2.83 2.68 2.70MAPE

LowestMonthly MAPE

2.45 1.93 2.24 1.63LowestDailyMAPE

0.70Sep – 15

HighestMonthly MAPE

4.99 4.11 3.79 3.55

Highest DailyMAPE

7.74Sep – 30


Reliability Unit Commitment (RUC) Capacity by weather zone in September 2011

RUCCommitments byWeather Zone

25

30

RUC Commitments by Weather Zone

Unit-Days RUC Total Days

20

25

25

15

Days

16

13

5

10

6

2

8

24

2 3

0COAST EAST NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH SOUTH CENTRAL


Weather Zone

September 2011: Generic Transmission Limits (GTLs)

GTLsSep 10DaysCSC

Jul 11DaysGTLs

Aug 11DaysGTLs

Sep 11DaysGTLs

Last 12 Months

Total Days (Aug 10 Aug 11)(Aug 10 – Aug 11)

North – Houston 8 0 0 0 32

West – North 15 4 2 11Sep–(4,5,14,15,17,18,22,24,25,2

9, 30)

259

GTL: A transmission flow limit more constraining than a Transmission Element’s normal limit t bli h d t t i fl b t hi f th ERCOT T i i S t th t i

Valley Import 0 0 0 0 15

established to constrain flow between geographic areas of the ERCOT Transmission System that is used to enforce stability and voltage constraints that cannot be modeled directly in ERCOT’s transmission security analysis applications.

Note: This table lists how many times a constraint has been activated to avoid exceeding a GTL limit, it does

11

not imply an exceedance of the GTL occurred.


Advisories and Watches in September 2011

• Advisories issued for Physical Responsive Capability (PRC) below 3000 MW.– Issued 19 Days

• Watches issued for Physical Responsive Capability (PRC) below 2500 MW.– None

• Transmission Watches– None

• Energy Emergency Alerts– None


Significant System Incidents in September 2011

• September 4 9• September 4-9– Wildfires impacted two 345KV lines, sixteen 138KV lines, three 69KV

lines and two generating stations in the Bastrop area. All lines back in ser ice b September 18in service by September 18.

– Two 345 KV lines from Jewett to Zenith impacted by a separate wildfire. Back in service by September 9.

– No significant reliability issues caused by the outages


Planning Summary

• 185 generation interconnection request studies totaling over 59,000 MW are ongoing. This includes almost 34,000 MW of wind generation.wind generation.

• ERCOT is currently reviewing proposed transmission improvements with a total cost of $117.9 Million

• Transmission Projects endorsed in 2011 total $579 9 Million• Transmission Projects endorsed in 2011 total $579.9 Million• All projects (in engineering, routing, licensing and

construction) total approximately $9.8 BillionTransmission Projects energized in 2011 total $694 8 million• Transmission Projects energized in 2011 total $694.8 million

14October 18, 2011 ERCOT Public

County Location of Planned Generation with Interconnection Requests (all fuels) September 2011


County Location of Planned Generation with Interconnection Requests (Wind) September 2011


Wind Generation

1,553 1,755 1,755

9 4009,700

10,953 11,155 11,155

10,000

12,000

MWCumulative MW Installed

Cumulative Planned (Signed Interconnection Agreement)

300

8,005

8,916

9,400

8,000

ERCOT Wind Installations by Year (as of September 30, 2011)The data presented here is based upon the latest registration data provided to

4,785

6,000

g pERCOT by the resource owners and can change without notice. Any capacity changes will be reflected in current and subsequent years' totals. Scheduling delays will also be reflected in the planned projects as that information is received.

1,854

2,875

2 000

4,000This chart now reflects planned units in calendar year of installation rather than installation by peak of year shown

116

816 977 1,173

1,385 1,854

0

2,000

17

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Generation Interconnection Activity by Fuel

MW Natural Gas MW Nuclear MW Coal MW Wind MW Solar *

300120,000

MW Natural Gas MW Nuclear MW Coal MW Wind MW Solar

MW Biomass * MW Other Total # Projects # Projects Cancelled

* Prior to September 2008, Category "Other" included "Solar" and "Biomass"Projects in all phases of interconnection study are reflected in this graphProject cancellation tracking by month began in March 2008

200

250

80,000

100,000

15060,000

Proj

ect C

ount

MW

Cap

acity

50

100

20,000

40,000

00

Jan-

06Fe

b-06

Mar

-06

Apr

-06

May

-06

Jun-

06Ju

l-06

Au g

-06

Se p

-06

Oct

-06

Nov

-06

Dec

-06

Jan-

07Fe

b-07

Mar

-07

Apr

-07

Ma y

-07

Jun-

07Ju

l-07

Au g

-07

Se p

-07

Oct

-07

Nov

-07

Dec

-07

Jan-

08Fe

b-08

Mar

-08

Apr

-08

Ma y

-08

Jun-

08Ju

l-08

Au g

-08

Se p

-08

Oct

-08

Nov

-08

Dec

-08

Jan-

09Fe

b-09

Mar

-09

Apr

-09

Ma y

-09

Jun-

09Ju

l-09

Au g

-09

Sep

-09

Oct

-09

Nov

-09

Dec

-09

Jan-

10Fe

b-10

Mar

-10

Apr

-10

May

-10

Jun-

10Ju

l-10

Au g

-10

Se p

-10

Oct

-10

Nov

-10

Dec

-10

Jan-

11Fe

b-11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

Ma y

-11

Jun-

11Ju

l-11

Au g

-11

Se p

-11


Generation Interconnection Activity by Project Phase

# In-Service ** # Signed Interconnect Agreement # Projects Cancelled ***

120,000

350

400

# Completed Full Study # in Full Study # Screening Study Complete

# Initial Screening Study MW Capacity Under Study * MW In Commercial Operation **

* Nameplate capacity will change across time due to additional projects, cancellations, expirations, adjustments from study results, and projects being placed in service.

80,000

100,000

250

300

350** Having begun commercial operation since January 2006

*** Began tracking cancellations by month in March 2008

60,000200

250

MW

Cap

acity

Proj

ect C

ount

20,000

40,000

100

150

MP

0

,

0

50

an-0

6eb

-06

Mar

-06

Apr

-06

ay-0

6un

-06

Jul-0

6ug

-06

ep-0

6O

ct-0

6ov

-06

ec-0

6an

-07

eb-0

7M

ar-0

7A

pr-0

7ay

-07

un-0

7Ju

l-07

ug-0

7ep

-07

Oct

-07

ov-0

7ec

-07

an-0

8eb

-08

Mar

-08

Apr

-08

ay-0

8un

-08

Jul-0

8ug

-08

ep-0

8O

ct-0

8ov

-08

ec-0

8an

-09

eb-0

9M

ar-0

9A

pr-0

9ay

-09

un-0

9Ju

l-09

ug-0

9ep

-09

Oct

-09

ov-0

9ec

-09

an-1

0eb

-10

Mar

-10

Apr

-10

ay-1

0un

-10

Jul-1

0ug

-10

ep-1

0O

ct-1

0ov

-10

ec-1

0an

-11

eb-1

1M

ar-1

1A

pr-1

1ay

-11

un-1

1Ju

l-11

ug-1

1ep

-11

19

Ja Fe M A Ma Ju J Au

Se O No

D Ja

Fe M A Ma Ju J Au

Se O No

D Ja

Fe M A Ma Ju J Au

Se O No

D Ja

Fe M A Ma Ju J Au

Se O No

D Ja

Fe M A Ma Ju J Au

Se O No

D Ja

Fe M A Ma Ju J Au

Se


Reliability Must Run Update

• Greens Bayou 5

– ERCOT re-evaluated the need to enter into a RMR contract with Greens B 5 (GBY 5)Bayou 5 (GBY 5)

– GBY 5 assists in resolving the Garrott to Midtown 138 kV overload which tends to occur during shoulder monthsg

– Determined that other generators can reasonably resolve the constraint until the transmission improvement to remove the constraint is completed in the first quarter of 2012completed in the first quarter of 2012

– GBY 5 put in mothball status on October 1, 2011

• Spencer 4 and 5 and SR Bertron 2Spencer 4 and 5 and SR Bertron 2

– Contracted with owners to return from mothball status the end of August

Contracts expire October 31 2011

20

– Contracts expire October 31, 2011


Status Update on Gas Curtailment Risk Study

• Project Managementoject a age e t– Contracting completed on 9/23/2011– Project kick-off meeting on 9/26/11

• Data Gathering & Analysis• Data Gathering & Analysis– Survey to electric generators sent on 9/20/2011 and 9/28/2011

• Responses being collected; deadline is 10/07/2011– Additional data requests to ERCOT and RRC underway– Research and analysis of curtailments from 3rd party sources is

ongoing• Next Steps:

– Compile information from remaining surveys– Complete database of Historical CurtailmentsComplete database of Historical Curtailments– Complete database of Gas Infrastructure– Analysis of risk of curtailment in defined scenarios

Results expected January 2012


• Results expected January 2012

Drought Effect on Generation

• ERCOT has been periodically surveying generators during and since the summer to monitor the effect of drought on generation availability

• Based on most recent survey:y– Current unavailability due to drought is only 24 MW– If East Texas receives only half of it’s normal winter/spring rainfall,

unavailability could go up to 434 MW by May– If no significant rainfall received, unavailability is estimated to be as

much as 3,044 MW by May– Approximately 9,000 MW is dependent on water rights from sources at

hi i ll l l lhistorically low levels• Mitigation actions being taken:

– Building of pipelines to remote water sources– Procuring additional water rights– Adding pumping capability

• ERCOT will continue to monitor the situation as long as the drought i t

22

exists


Documents

Item 04e - Grid Operations and Planning Report · 2014. 6. 23. · September 2011: Generic Transmission Limits (GTLs) GTLs Sep 10 Days CSC Jul 11 Days GTLs Aug 11 Days GTLs Sep 11