Issues and Options for High Efficiency and Low Carbon

Urbanization in China

Prof. He Kebin Tsinghua University, Beijing, PRC

SB26 Bonn, Germany May 11, 2007

Contents

Trends and Challenges

Policies and Measures

Future Demands

GDP and primary energy consumption, on per capita base, are still low in China

Source:

Li Zheng, Tsinghua Univ.

Still in low stage according to U.N. standardsFurther development is expected

1997$)

Imbalance: eastern and westernSome rural area in China’s west

Some urban area in China’s southeast

Services Buildings Transportation Education

Still in Rapid Development Period

Urban population in China: 19.4% in 1980, 26.23% in 1990 , 41.76% in 2004; Proper ratio of urbanization percentage and GDP per capita Urbanization level in China is still low

Percentage of Urban Population

0

20

40

60

80

100

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

worldChinaJapanKoreaCanadaUSAGermanyUKAustralia

Trends and Challenges(1): Urbanization

Beijing urban built-up areas extension, 1984-2002

Urban area in 1982, 1999 and 2002 in China

Trends and Challenges(2): Building and transportation

Urbanization

Motorization CO2 emissions

Energy pressureBuilding

Trends and Challenges(3): Building energy consumption

Energy

Coal

Electric

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Building Energy/primary energy consumptionNorthern building heating coal/total coal consumptionBuilding electric consumption/total electric consumption

Trends and Challenges(4): Transportation

Beijing Road Transport

Beijing Subway Transport

Guangzhou Rail Transport Guangzhou Road Transport

National Highway Planning

Trends and Challenges(5): Motorization

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

mill

ion

US DOE

NAS High

NAS Low

CATARC 1

CATARC 2

From the early 1990s to today:annual growth rate ----13%

By the end of 2006:total automobiles 35.9 millions;total private cars 11.5 millions.

2020:1-1.3 billion vehicles

05

10152025303540

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

million

BAU

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

mill

ion

tons

Motorcycle

Car

Mini Bus

LDB

MDB

HDB

Mini Truck

LDT

MDT

HDT

Trends and Challenges(6):Fuel Consumption in Road Transportation

300 million tons in 2020500 million tons in 2030

BAU

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000200220042006200820102012201420162018202020222024202620282030

mill

ion

tons

Motorcycle

Car

Mini Bus

LDB

MDB

HDB

Mini Truck

LDT

MDT

HDT

Transportation sector:

1.0 billion tons in 20201.6 billion tons in 2030

Transport26%

Manufacturing andConstruction

19%

Production of Energy41%

Commercial andOther

6%

Residential8%

Trends and Challenges(7): Emissions: CO2

Contents

Trends and Challenges

Policies and Measures

Future Demands

Policies and Measures (1)Building energy efficiency

“11th-five-years”:energy saving target for buildings 101 million

Tec 42% of total energy saving target

101 million TecNew building:70 million Tec

Old building:31 million Tec

Renewable Energy

Policies and Measures (2)Energy saving from transportation

Four ways to improve energy efficiency and limit carbon emissions:

Fuel Economy

Fuel Quality

Fuel Diversity

Reducing VKT

Fuel Economy (1):

2005 to 2008:

after 2008:

further reduce by 15%

reduce per-VKT fuel consumption by 5%~10%

National Fuel Efficiency Standard(issued by SDPC in 2003)

Fuel economy (2): Effectiveness

78

186

312

507

78

183

299

476

160 170 180

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2010 2020 2030

mill

ion

tons

BAU

fuel economy standards

domestic production Fuel saving:13 million tons in 2020 31 million tons in 2030

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

mill

ion

tons

CO2 emission reduction

CO2 emission reduction:100 million tonsin 2030

Fuel Economy (3): further improvements(under consideration)

Measures:2012 , light-duty passenger cars:Further reduction 25% to 5.6 L/100km (European requirement for 2008)

2016 , light-duty passenger cars:To 4.8 L/100 km (catch up with Europe and Japan )

Effects:Fuel saving:Additional 19 million tons oil in 2020; 60 million tons in 2030

CO2 emission reduction:Additional 61 million tons in 2020; 189 million tons in 2030

Measures:2010: reduction of 20%2012: Further reduction of 252016: Catch up with developed countries

Effects:Fuel saving:Additional 25 million tons oil in 2020; 52 million tons in 2030

CO2 emission reduction:166 million tons in 2030

Fuel Economy (4): for heavy-duty(under consideration)

Fuel Quality

Unleaded petrol (gasoline) for motor vehicles Low sulfur fuels

Vehicle emission standards in China

Emission

00.20.40.60.8

11.2

I II III IV

g/km

Fuel Diversity (1)

Liquid fuels

EthanolEthanol made from bio-plants

Rapeseed oilRapeseed oil (bio(bio--diesel)diesel) from bio-plants

Gaseous fuels

CNG, LNG and LPG, but low specific powerCNG, LNG and LPG, but low specific power

Problem and Perspective

High cost to produce the bioHigh cost to produce the bio--fuelsfuels

Optimization of Traditional Technologies Future small cars Efficiency of internal combustion engine achieve 45%-55

Battery Electric Vehicles “Zero-emission” vehicle;

Fuel Cell VehiclesHigh efficiency, low emission electrical power system;Long-term potential, obstacles for commercialization.

Fuel Diversity (2)

Fuel Diversity (3): Diesel vehicles

In China:23.7% of all vehicles are diesel but only 0.2% of cars are diesel

diesel percentage in passenger vehicles is proposed to

increase to 5%, 15% and 30% in 2010, 2015 and 2020

If 20% of PC were diesel, 30 million tons oil would be saved

6789

1011

Europe USA

L/10

0 km

19802000

International Experience

Reduce VKT(1)--- Urban and transportation planning

6.4 7.18

0

2

4

6

8

10

km

1993 1998 2003

average trip distance Trip distance increased in Beijing

How to make the trip more efficient?

Reduce VKT(2) --- TDM

National Fuel tax proposed to be increased

Car ownership controls already in Shanghai

Off Street parking provision limited for new developments

Differential parking pricing in Beijing & Shanghai

Development of subway/BRT systems in major urban areas

Reduce VKT(3) -- Trip mode shift

0

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140

160

BRT Rail Bus MC Taxi Car

ton

CO

2/m

illio

n pe

rson

-km

CO2 Emission of Six Transportation Modes

Cars produce the largest CO2 emission per passenger-kilometer, 7 times of the busesPromotion of mass public transfer tool: light rail, subway or BRT

Source:Energy Foundation

BRT Practice in China

CDCQTJSYXAGZ

FZNJSZSZWXHAXMTY

Under Operation：BJ, HZ, and KM

Under Construction：Jinan

Under planning：

Technical potential to reach the target (1) building

0

500

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1500

2000

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3500

2020

Ene

rgy

savi

ng p

oten

tiam

illio

n kW

h/a

In-used large public buildings

New large public buildings

Electrical appliances

Heating system

Building enclosure

Technical potential to reach the target (2) transportation

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2020

AF

ATV (hybrid)

System Integration

Urban mode shift

HDV FE

LDV FE

Contents

Trends and Challenges

Policies and Measures

Future Demands

Demands for International supportsTechnical (1)

Mid-term, long-term technologies to improve building energy efficiency:

new technologies in building fabrics

ventilators and exhaust heat recovers

heat pumps

technologies to reduce energy consumption in distribution systems

temperature and humidity independent control system

energy saving optimizing control of building automatic systems

building combined power

heating & cooling system (BCHP)

new type of configuration of district heating system as well as high efficiency lightings

Demands for International supports Technical (2)

Vehicle Unit technologies

23. Aerodynamic improvement……28. Safety enhancing weight reductions

Engine-Transmission-Vehicle technologies

29. Engine-Transmission-Vehicle technologies

Mid-term, long-term technologies to improve fuel economyEngine technologies

1. Multi-valve, overhead camshaft……15. Direct injection diesel engine

Transmission technologies

16. 4 and 5 speed automatic transmission……22. Advanced Continuously variable transmission

Demands for International supportsMethodology

Buildingbuilding energy consumption model

energy estimation for commercial buildings

energy label system for residential buildings

energy label system for home appliances

TransportationEvaluate the effect of advanced technologies, including

alternative fuels

Evaluate the effect of transportation system optimizing

Demands for International supportsFinancial

Demo projects for

energy saving building

advanced vehicle technologies

low carbon transport mode (i.e. BRT)

eco-friendly town or city development

Capacity building

ConclusionChina’s Urbanization Process is in a normal and relatively low development stage; there is very serious Imbalance of developments between east and west China; Future development is expected and necessary.Great efforts have been made in China to promote sustainable urbanization process, especially for energy saving and emission reduction in building and transportation sectors.Technical, scientific and financial supports from international society are needed for further efforts to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions.