Israel and the Palestinians: Challenges and Opportunities Teleconference March 2009

2

Militarized PL State

Foreign forces using PL

Terrorism and Rocket fire

IL Leaves: Security Threat

Logic: Stay

Israel’s Palestinian Dilemmas

Demographic Burden

Erosion of 2SS

Logic of Implosion

IL Stays: Political Threat

Logic: Leave

3

Continuing Rocket Fire

Gilad Shalit in Captivity

Int’l Pressure to Open Crossings

Erosion of Quartet 3 Demands

War against Hamas:Was Operation Cast Lead a Corrective

Experience? Hamas Infrastructure Destroyed

Hamas Leadership Weakened

Hundreds of Terrorists Killed

Why cant Israel Win ?

January 2009

March 2009

4

The Dilemmas Hamas poses to Israel

No moderate alternative

Rockets on Tel Aviv later ?

Fear of renewed IL responsibility

Toppling Hamas

Undermines Abbas’ position

No Organizing Idea vs. Hamas

Weakens Palestinian Address

Hudna with Hamas Erodes int’l boycott on Hamas

4

5

Political Process:Permanent Status or Statebuilding?

Negotiations over PSA

(Package Approach)

‘All or Nothing’ Dynamic

Statebuilding

Moment of Truth Dangerous:Statebuilding Essential

First PSA, then State

Strengthen PL Address

First State, then PSA

6

Structural Obstacles to PSA

PSA currently Unlikely

Israeli Institutional Weakness

No ZOPA

Palestinian Constitutional

Crisis

Permanent Status Agreement

7

Statebuilding

Gestures

Institutions and Capacity Building

Upgrading the PA

Strengthening the moderate factions

Strengthening PA institutions and capacities within existing

agreements

Upgrading the PA: Statebuilding beyond existing agreements

8

Upgrading the PA

Security

Territory

Political

Economic

Sovereign State

Current PA

Embassies

UN / WTO Membership

Strengthening PA

Forces

Sept 2000 LinesCustoms

Palestinian Currency Area B

9

The Catch 22 of a PL Unity Govt.

Unity Government

No Agreement

Yes Address

Ramallah-Based Government

Yes Agreement

No Address

10

Consequences of FailureThe Erosion / Collapse of the Two State

Solution

Collapse of PA

Return to ‘Resistance’

IL blamed in Int’l Community

Towards Pariah Status

Palestinian Inversion to 2SS

Int’l Inversion to 2SS

11

What Could break the Ice?

Imposing the “Clinton Ideas”

“Economic Peace” + Political Component

NATANZ for NATAN(Aluf Benn)