Ismar Daily Forecast

Disclaimer: Content in ISMAR Report is for informational purposes only. Sources believed to be reliable, complete, and accurate. However, no guarantee can be made as to the validity of the believed sources. All statements and expressions in the Report are opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Forex Markets can be volatile and opinions may change without notice.

DAILY FOREX & COMMODITIES

FORECAST

04-02-2013

FOREX FORECAST MAJOR PAIRS “OPENING MINDS CREATING FUTURES”

AUD/USD CURRENT PRICE EXPECTED HIGH EXPECTED LOW PIVOT POINT

1.0404 1.0424 , 1.0444 , 1.0479 1.0370 , 1.0330 1.0403

AUD/USD SMA 5 SMA 10 SMA 15

SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES 1.0424 1.0452 1.0482

DIFFERENCE FROM PRICE (PIPS) -20 -48 -78

DAYS SINCE PRICE TESTED SMA 0 6 6

GAP BETWEEN SMA 5, 10 & 15 58 Pips

RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI) 42 bearish

BOLLINGER BAND BOLLINGER BAND (UPPER) BOLLINGER BAND (MIDDLE) BOLLINGER BAND (LOWER)

Lower Band 1.0623 1.0497 1.0370

LUTFI MAGNET POINTS WEEKLY M MONTHLY M QUARTERLY M HALF YEARLY M

YEARLY M

1.0417 1.0479 1.0442 1.0386 1.0217

SENTIMENT Bearish Bearish Bearish Bullish Bullish

TECHNICAL NAD FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Daily Technical Analysis: AUD/USD has tested SMA5 yesterday. Market SMAs are expending in Bearish sequence, whereas the pair is moving below all three SMAs. RSI is showing bearish strength with 42% reading. RSI is moving in straight direction below Mid-level (50%). Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands are showing slight expansion while middle band is turning downward direction and the pair has retreated to lower band. It shows bearish volatility might be ending. With Lutfi Magnet Theory market is 66% Bearish, while magnet theory with adjustments is showing market is 57% bearish sentiment. Lutfi Magnet Theory and adjustments are showing bearish sentiment.

From Trend line Analysis, AUD/USD fell down below support at 1top 1Bottom support level at 1.0466. Now the pair is sustaining above 1.0400 support level. The pair has initial resistance at 1.0466, then it might take bullish extension to key resistance level at 1.0560. While on lower side break below 1.0400 level will initiate bearish move to triple support level at 1.0330. From above Technical Analysis initial bias is bearish. On on downside, the pair may take initial support at lower Bollinger band at 1.0370; break there may attempt 2nd support at 1.0330. While higher side, sustainable move above SMA5 at 1.0424, may initiate bullish biasness to

DAILY FOREX & COMMODITIES FORECAST


Friday’s high at 1.0444. And break there may extend the bullish trend conversion to Monthly magnet at 1.0479. Weekly Technical Analysis: AUD/USD edged lower last week even though downside momentum is a bit unconvincing. Initial bias remains on the downside for 1.0344 support first. Break will confirm the bearish case that choppy rise from 1.0148 has finished at 1.0597 already. In such case, outlook will be turned bearish for 1.0148 support and below. Above 1.0476 will bring probably bring another high above 1.0597. But after all, choppy rebound from 1.0148 is viewed as a corrective move and we'd expect strong resistance below 1.0624 to limit upside and reversal eventually. Daily Fundamentals: The U.S. dollar weakened against its Australian counterpart during Friday’s Asian trading session after data out of Australia indicated that inflation might be weaker than expected.

Australia’s producer price index came in on Friday at 0.2% -- economists had forecast a gain of 0.4%. Also on Friday, China's official manufacturing PMI printed below expectations at 50.40; the consensus estimate was for 50.90. Australia's economy remains heavily dependent on its mineral exports, many of which are shipped to China.

With inflation likely to be subdued, and China's economic recovery limited, the Australian dollar was free to rally, especially against the greenback, which was broadly weaker. The U.S. dollar index shed 0.09% to trade at 79.17 Friday.

Later on Friday, the Australian Dollar fell against the dollar on Friday after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added a net 157,000 jobs in January, roughly in line with expectations for a gain of 160,000.

December's numbers were revised to 196,000 from 155,000, while November's figures were revised to 247,000 from 161,000. The headline unemployment rate rose to 7.9% from 7.8% in December.

Here is schedule for today’s important News: MI Inflation Gauge: at 04:30am. This consumer inflation indicator is released monthly, and is similar to CPI, which is released each quarter. The index rebounded in January, posting a gain of 0.4%. The markets will be hoping for another release is positive territory. Building Approvals: at 05:30am. Building Approvals has been volatile in recent readings, and has failed to meet the estimate in the past two releases. The estimate for February stands at 1.1%, and the markets will be hoping the indicator can meet or beat expectations. ANZ Job Advertisements: at 05:30am. This employment indicator continues to sag, and has not posted a gain since last April. January’s reading was a weak -3.8%, and the markets will be hoping for a turnaround in the upcoming release. USD No data: No major data is expected for the day.

Weekly Fundamentals: AUD/USD was almost unchanged on the week, as the pair closed just above the 1.04 line, at 1.0405. There was some impressive Australian data, as New Home Sales and Business Confidence were sharp. However this was offset by disappointing Chinese manufacturing data and some weak releases out of the US this past week, including GDP and employment numbers. There are 12 events in the upcoming week, including; Building Approvals, Trade Balance, Cash Rate, Employment Change and Monitory Policy. The US dollar, Japanese yen and the pound remained on the back foot, while the euro surged to new highs. US Non-farm Payrolls came broadly in line with market predictions gaining 157K jobs in January, while the unemployment rate climbed to 7.9% – a small disappointment. On a yearly average, the US economy added 181,000 jobs a month, better than the 153,000 pace originally reported but not fast enough to dent the unemployment rate to the 6.5% threshold set by the Federal Reserve. The Fed, made no change in policy and left QE4 to run at the same pace without any future hints. It did acknowledge that the economy had “paused” – the contraction in the US economy in Q4 was largely discarded by analysts. The recovery has yet to accelerate. Rate decisions in Australia the UK and the Euro-zone as well as US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and trade balane are the leading events this week. AUD/USD Last Week: Last Week the pair opened at 1.0416. After attempting high at 1.0474, Aussie moved downward low at 1.0366. After three consecutive lows below 1.0400 level. the pair closed choppy and thin volume week at 1.0404

MARKET SENTIMENT

67% Bearish

AUD/USD DAILY CHART



EUR/USD CURRENT PRICE EXPECTED HIGH EXPECTED LOW PIVOT POINT

1.3642 1.3672 , 1.3710 1.3613 , 1.3572 , 1.3532 1.3641

EUR/USD SMA 5 SMA 10 SMA 15


DIFFERENCE FROM PRICE (PIPS) 59 158 213



RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI) 77 bullish


Upper Band 1.3685 1.3378 1.3072


YEARLY M

1.3562 1.3353 1.3185 1.2975 1.2876

SENTIMENT Bullish Bullish Bullish Bullish Bullish


Daily Technical Analysis: EUR/USD has not tested SMA5 for last 3 days. SMAs are now expending and moving in bullish sequence, with Euro is moving above all three SMAs.

RSI is showing bullish strength with 77% reading. RSI is moving in upward direction above resistance-Level (70%). At this RSI level it may take correction.

Upper and Lower bands are showing expansion while Middle Band moving in slight upward direction. The pair is moving near upper band. It signals uptrend volatility in euro.

With Lutfi Magnet theory market is 99% Bullish and with adjustments 93 bullish sentiments. Lutfi Magnet Theory and adjustments are showing over Bullish sentiment, where Euro may take correction. From Trend line Analysis, Euro has extended uptrend, broke above triple top resistance at 1.3356 and now it has attempted a 14 month high at 1.3710. In case of consolidation the pair will take support at Last broken resistance turned support level at 1.3448, On the basis of Technical Analysis initial is Bullish with a correction. On lower side, downward move below support1 at 1.3613 will initiate correction in current trend and attempt Friday’s low at 1.3572. And break there may initiate deeper correction for uptrend to low at 1.3532. While on upward, sustainable move above resistance1 at 1.3672 may regain bullish moment to Friday’s high at 1.3710.

Weekly Technical Analysis: EUR/USD's up trend continued last week and surged to as high as 1.3710. The strong break of 1.3486 resistance carried larger bullish implications. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 100% projection of 1.2042 to 1.3171 from 1.2661 at 1.3790 first. On the downside, below 1.3587 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained by 1.3403 support and bring another rally. Daily Fundamentals: Better-than-expected employment and consumer sentiment data out of the U.S. sent the euro surging to a fresh 14-month high against the dollar on Friday as investors ditched the greenback and embraced risk. Earlier Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added a net 157,000 jobs in January, roughly in line with expectations for a gain of 160,000. December's numbers were revised to 196,000 from 155,000, while November's figures were revised to 247,000 from 161,000. The headline unemployment rate rose to 7.9% from 7.8% in December. Separately, the Institute of Supply Management said that its manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 53.1 last month from 50.2 in December, well above expectations for a rise to 50.6.



Friday's string of positive data in the U.S. sparked a risk-on trading session that sent the dollar falling against the euro, which rose on good news out of Spain. The Markit research group earlier reported that Spain's manufacturing PMI rose to 46.1 in January from a reading of 44.6 in December, beating expectations for an improvement to 45.5, while the eurozone's manufacturing PMI rose to 47.9 in January from 47.5, beating expectations for the index to remain unchanged. Elsewhere, the eurozone's preliminary consumer price index slipped to an annualized rate of 2.0% in January from 2.2% the previous month. Analysts had expected inflation to remain unchanged last month. Here is schedule for today’s important News: Spanish employment data: at 01:00pm. The number of people registered as unemployed in Spain dropped unexpectedly by 59,094 in December following 74,300 rise in November. The reading beat predictions for another increase of 50,300 unemployed. In 2012, some 426,000 people joined the unemployed ranks, an increase of 9.6% on 2011. Spain is expected to add 150,000 jobs this time. Sentix Investor Confidence: at 02:30pm. Eurozone investor sentiment improved considerably in January, reaching -7 from -16.8 in December. The reading was way above predictions indicating a modest trend of optimism. A major improvement to minus 2.2 is forecasted. EUR PPI: at 03:00pm. The Euro-zone producer prices index dropped 0.2% in November, a bit worse than the 0.1% decline expected, following October’s 0.1% increase. Producer prices were 2.1% higher than November 2011. Another 0.2% decline is anticipated. USD No data: No major data is expected for the day. Weekly Fundamentals: EUR/USD had another fantastic week, reaching 14 month highs. The feeling that the “worst is over” regarding the debt crisis continues to send money into the euro-zone, and lifts the value of the euro. Retail sales from Germany, the euro-zone’s locomotive, disappointed with a drop of 1.7%. Meanwhile, manufacturing PMIs improved in Spain and the Euro-zone but still remained in recession. Will the Euro-zone stabilize during 2013 in line with predictions? The drop in the unemployment rate is a positive sign, but many more are needed. The Euro-zone rate decision is the main highlight of the week. The US dollar, Japanese yen and the pound remained on the back foot, while the euro surged to new highs. US Non-farm Payrolls came broadly in line with market

predictions gaining 157K jobs in January, while the unemployment rate climbed to 7.9%. On a yearly average, the US economy added 181,000 jobs a month, better than the 153,000 pace originally reported but not fast enough to dent the unemployment rate to the 6.5% threshold set by the Federal Reserve. The Fed, made no change in policy and left QE4 to run at the same pace without any future hints. It did acknowledge that the economy had “paused” – the contraction in the US economy in Q4 was largely discarded by analysts. The recovery has yet to accelerate. Rate decisions in Australia and the UK and US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and trade balance are the leading events this week. EUR/USD Last Week: EUR/USD resumed its Bullish trend last week and attempted 14 month high. Last week it opened at 1.3464. After attempting slight low at 1.3413, the pair then went up and 14 month high at 1.3710. Euro closed last week with a 300pip bullish volume at 1.3642.

MARKET SENTIMENT

61% Bullish

EUR/USD DAILY CHART



GBP/USD CURRENT PRICE EXPECTED HIGH EXPECTED LOW PIVOT POINT

1.5694 1.5724 , 1.5754 , 1.5800 1.5661 , 1.5625 1.5754

GBP/USD SMA 5 SMA 10 SMA 15


DIFFERENCE FROM PRICE (PIPS) -66 -83 -141




BOLLINGER BAND BOLLINGER BAND (UPPER)

BOLLINGER BAND (MIDDLE)

BOLLINGER BAND (LOWER)

Middle to Lower Band 1.6192 1.5898 1.5605


YEARLY M

1.5775 1.5924 1.6025 1.5961 1.5822

SENTIMENT Bearish Bearish Bearish Bearish Bearish


Daily Technical Analysis: GBP/USD has tested SMA5, SMA10 and SMA15 on Friday. Market SMAs are expending in bearish sequence, whereas GBP is moving below all three SMAs.

RSI is showing decreasing bearish strength with 35% reading. RSI is moving in downward direction towards Support-Level (30%).

Upper, Middle and Lower Bands are moving downward direction with expended bands. Whereas the pair is moving towards Lower band, it shows bearish volatility in the pair.

With Lutfi Magnet Theory market is 63% Bearish, while adjustments are showing 70% bearish sentiments. Lutfi magnet theory is showing bearish sentiment.

From trend line analysis, the pair has extended downward move below triple top support at 1.5729. and second time it has closed the week below 1.5700 level. Now in case of upward rebound from support turned resistance level at 1.5729, the pair has minor resistance level at 1.5839. While in case of further downtrend extension below 1.5700 level the pair has support at long term uptrend line support at 1.5608. From above Technical Analysis initial bias is slightly

bearish with a correction for Friday’s downward. On

upside corrective move above triple to support turned

resistance level at 1.5724 may consolidate down trend

and attempt daily pivot point at 1.5754. and Break there

may attempt resistance1 at 1.5800. However on lower

side, downward move below support1 at 1.5661 will

extend bearish moves to low at 1.5625.

Weekly Technical Analysis: GBP/USD attempted to rebound after hitting 1.5673 but was limited at 1.5877 and dropped sharply to close the week. Initial bias is cautiously on the downside for 1.5673 first. Break will confirm resumption of fall from 1.6380 and should target a test on 1.5268 key support level. On the upside, break of 1.5877 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery. Daily Fundamentals: The pound fell against the dollar on Friday after weak U.K. manufacturing data fueled growing concerns that the economy is facing strengthening headwinds. Earlier Friday, the Markit research group reported that the U.K. manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 50.8 in January from 51.2 in December, outpacing analysts' calls for a decline to 51.0. The pound slid amid an otherwise risk-on trading day on sentiments U.K. recovery may be waning. Data last week revealed that the U.K. economy contracted 0.3% in the fourth quarter, putting Britain on track for a triple-dip recession. Meanwhile in the U.S., the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added a net 157,000 jobs in January, roughly in line with expectations for a gain of 160,000.



December's numbers were revised to 196,000 from 155,000, while November's figures were revised to 247,000 from 161,000. The headline unemployment rate rose to 7.9% from 7.8% in December. Elsewhere, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's final reading of its consumer sentiment index improved to 73.8 in January from 71.3 the previous month, beating expectations for a reading of 71.5. Separately, the Institute of Supply Management said that its manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 53.1 last month from 50.2 in December, well above expectations for a rise to 50.6. Here is schedule for today’s important News: Construction PMI: at 02:30pm. This key index climbed to 49.7 points in the previous reading, but spent most of the latter half of 2012 below the 50 line, pointing to contraction in the construction industry. USD No data: No major data is expected for the day. Weekly Fundamentals: GBP/USD posted gains during the week, but fell sharply on Friday, and was down close to a cent at week’s end. The pair closed at 1.5691. The pound got hit with a double-whammy on Friday, as weak UK Manufacturing

data combined with strong an excellent Manufacturing PMI out of the US pushed the pair down sharply. The upcoming week is quite busy, with 10 events, including; Trade Balance, Asset Purchase Facility, Official Bank rate. The US dollar, Japanese yen and the pound remained on the back foot, while the euro surged to new highs. US Non-farm Payrolls came broadly in line with market predictions gaining 157K jobs in January, while the unemployment rate climbed to 7.9% – a small disappointment. On a yearly average, the US economy added 181,000 jobs a month, better than the 153,000 pace originally reported but not fast enough to dent the unemployment rate to the 6.5% threshold set by the Federal Reserve. The Fed, made no change in policy and left QE4 to run at the same pace without any future hints. It did acknowledge that the economy had “paused” – the contraction in the US economy in Q4 was largely discarded by analysts. The recovery has yet to accelerate. Rate decisions in Australia the UK and the Euro-zone as well as US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and trade balance are the leading events this week. GBP/USD Last Week: GBP/USD opened last week at 1.5762. After attempting low at 1.5673 on Monday, the pair took Bullish reversal for next three days. On Friday, after attempting high at 1.5877 the pair fell down 180pips reverting all bullish sentiment. The pair closed the volatile and bearish week at 1.5694.

MARKET SENTIMENT

63% Bearish

GBP/USD DAILY CHART

GBP/USD DAILY CHART



USD/JPY CURRENT PRICE EXPECTED HIGH EXPECTED LOW PIVOT POINT

92.69 92.95 , 93.28 92.41 , 92.00 , 91.77 92.41

JPY/USD SMA 5 SMA 10 SMA 15


DIFFERENCE FROM PRICE (PIPS) 92 186 237



RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI) 77 bullish

BOLLINGER BAND BOLLINGER BAND (UPPER)

BOLLINGER BAND (MIDDLE)

BOLLINGER BAND (LOWER)

Upper Band 92.83 89.85 86.88

LUTFI MAGNET POINTS WEEKLY M MONTHLY M QUARTERLY M

HALF YEARLY M

YEARLY M

91.63 89.88 86.01 85.04 84.71

SENTIMENT Bullish Bullish Bullish Bullish Bullish


Daily Technical Analysis: USD/JPY has not tested SMA5 on Friday. JPY/USD SMAs

are moving in bullish sequence, while the pair is moving

above all three SMAs.

RSI is showing bullish strength with 77%

reading. RSI is moving in upward direction above

resistance-level (70%).

At this RSI the pair may take correction.

Upper, Middle and Lower Bands are moving in upward

direction. JPY is moving near upper band, it shows

bullish volatility in pair.

With Lutfi Magnet Theory market is 91% Bullish and

adjustments are 93% bullish. Lutfi Magnet Theory and

adjustments are showing over bullish sentiments in pair.

Further from Trend line analysis; the pair is moving in

uptrend. Last Week USD/JPY took a slight consolidation

at 90.31 and regained upward momentum broke above

last week resistance at 91.18. Now in case of further

extension to uptrend, the pair may retest 32 month high

at 94.97. As mentioned earlier, Trend line analysis also

suggests this uptrend was steep and could bring a

deeper correction.

Concluding all Technical Analysis, initial bias is slightly

bullish. With a correction, sustainable move below daily

pivot point at 92.41 may initiate deeper corrective move

to test support1 at 92.00. And break there may attempt

SMA5 at 91.77. While on higher side, upward move

above Friday’s high at 92.95 may extend uptrend to

resistance2 at 93.28.

Weekly Technical Analysis: USD/JPY's uptrend continued last week and jumped to as high as 92.95. Note that the break of near term rising channel resistance indicates acceleration in the pair. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for medium term level at 94.98 next. On the downside, below 91.78 minor support will turn bias neutral first. But break of 90.24 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat. Daily Fundamentals: The U.S. dollar rose to a 19-month high against the yen on Friday, as expectations for further easing measures from the Bank of Japan continued to weigh heavily on demand for the yen, while markets eyed the release of U.S. employment data later in the day.

The yen remained broadly weaker amid expectations that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would keep up pressure on the Bank of Japan to implement more aggressive easing measures to combat deflation.

Earlier Friday, official data showed that household spending in Japan fell 0.7% in December, more than the expected 0.2% decline, after a 0.2% rise the previous month.

A separate report showed that Japan's unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% in December from 4.1%. Analysts had expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged.

Meanwhile in the U.S., the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added a net 157,000 jobs in January, roughly in line with expectations for a gain of



160,000. December's numbers were revised to 196,000 from 155,000, while November's figures were revised to 247,000 from 161,000.

The headline unemployment rate rose to 7.9% from 7.8% in December.

Elsewhere, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's final reading of its consumer sentiment index improved to 73.8 in January from 71.3 the previous month, beating expectations for a reading of 71.5.

Separately, the Institute of Supply Management said that its manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 53.1 last month from 50.2 in December, well above expectations for a rise to 50.6.

Here is schedule for today’s important News: Monetary Base: at 04:50am. Japan’s monetary advanced 11.8% in December from a year earlier after climbing 5.0% in November indicating that the monetary easing measures caused an increase in the amount of currency in circulation which in turn revived economic growth. An increase in the supply of money is expected to lead to additional spending, which in turn results in inflation. A further rise of 13.2% is expected now. USD No data: No major data is expected for the day. Weekly Fundamentals: USD/JPY continued its upward surge and only made a short pause to consolidate. In the US, the gain of 157K non-farm jobs was in line with expectations, and didn’t

stop the dollar’s rise. Japan’s household spending worsened in December, down 0.7% after a 0.2% rise in the previous month. Likewise Prelim Industrial Production grew less than anticipated, gaining 2.5% after a 1.4% fall in November and Average Cash Earnings declined unexpectedly by 1.4% after falling 0.8% in the previous month contrary to the 1.1% rise expected. Current Account is the highlight of this week. The US dollar, Japanese yen and the pound remained on the back foot, while the euro surged to new highs. US Non-farm Payrolls came broadly in line with market predictions gaining 157K jobs in January, while the unemployment rate climbed to 7.9% – a small disappointment. On a yearly average, the US economy added 181,000 jobs a month, better than the 153,000 pace originally reported but not fast enough to dent the unemployment rate to the 6.5% threshold set by the Federal Reserve. The Fed, made no change in policy and left QE4 to run at the same pace without any future hints. It did acknowledge that the economy had “paused” – the contraction in the US economy in Q4 was largely discarded by analysts. The recovery has yet to accelerate. Rate decisions in Australia the UK and the Euro-zone as well as US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and trade balance are the leading events this week. USD/JPY Last Week: Last week, USD/JPY initially saw some consolidation in bullish trend. The pair started last week at 91.04. After attempting low at 90.31, USD/JPY took bullish continuation and went up to 33 month high at 92.95. JPY closed the 260pips bullish week at 92.69.

MARKET SENTIMENT

68% Bullish

USD/JPY DAILY CHART

USD/JPY DAILY CHART



GOLD CURRENT PRICE EXPECTED HIGH EXPECTED LOW PIVOT POINT

1666.80 1669.70

GOLD SMA 5 SMA 10 SMA 15


DIFFERENCE FROM PRICE (UD $) -0.44 -1.97 -6.73


GAP BETWEEN SMA 5, 10 & 15 6.79 USD



Middle Band 1693.75 1671.57 1649.39

LUTFI MAGNET POINTS WEEKLY M MONTHLY M QUARTERLY M HALF YEARLY M YEARLY M

1667.74 1660.85 1688.94 1693.14 1661.33

SENTIMENT Bearish Bullish Bearish Bearish Bullish


Daily Technical analysis: GOLD has tested SMA5, SMA10 and SMA15 on Friday.

Gold market SMAs are contracting and converting to

bearish sequence. The precious metal is moving below

all three SMAs.

RSI is showing bearish strength with 47% reading

and random direction slightly below mid-level (50%).

Upper, Middle and Lower bands are moving in straight

direction with expended bands. As the metal is moving

below middle band, it shows volatility is turning to

downward in Gold market.

With Lutfi Magnet Theory market is 56% bearish and

with adjustments 57% Bearish. Lutfi Magnet Theory and

Adjustments are showing bearish sentiments.

From Trend line analysis, Gold has retested and moved

below support turned resistance level at 1676.85. In case

of sustainable downward move below 1676.85 level,

may take support at double bottom support level at

1646.57, while extended downward move may attempt

double top resistance turned support level at 1626.35.

And incase of upward move above support turned

resistance level at 1676.85, the gold may attempt last

seen resistance at 1700 level.

Concluding all Technical Analysis, initial bias is Neutral

as the metal is moving in some consolidation. On lower

Side, move below support1 at 1661.33 will provide

support to bearish sentiment and may attempt support2

at 1655.77. And break below this level may attempt last

week low at 1651.78. While on higher side, upward

move above middle Bollinger band at 1671.57 may re-

gain some bullish sentiment test support turned

resistance level at 1676.85. and sustainable upward

movement may find resistance at Friday’s high at

1681.89.

Weekly Technical Analysis: Despite dropping to 1651.0, there was no following through selling in gold and it turned sideways since then. Nonetheless, with 1697.8 resistance intact, choppy fall from 1798.1 is still in favor to continue. Below 1651.0 will target 1626.0 low and below. Meanwhile, above 1697.8 will suggest that the choppy decline from 1798.1 has completed already and should turn near term outlook bullish for a retest on 1800 psychological level. Daily Fundamentals: Gold prices rose on Friday after U.S. unemployment data came close to meeting expectations, while consumer sentiment figures surprised many market participants.

Earlier Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added a net 157,000 jobs in January, roughly in line with expectations for a gain of 160,000.

December's numbers were revised to 196,000 from 155,000, while November's figures were revised to 247,000 from 161,000, which drew market applause.

The headline unemployment rate rose to 7.9% from 7.8% in December.

Separately, the Institute of Supply Management said that its manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 53.1 last month from 50.2 in December, well above expectations for a rise to 50.6.



Healthy indicators in Europe also fueled the risk-on trading session that sent the dollar falling and the euro rising, a recipe for firming gold prices.

The Markit research group earlier reported that Spain's manufacturing PMI rose to 46.1 in January from a reading of 44.6 in December, beating expectations for an improvement to 45.5, while the eurozone's manufacturing PMI rose to 47.9 in January from 47.5, beating expectations for the index to remain unchanged.

The single currency brought gold prices up with it after official data revealed that the eurozone's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 11.7% in December, compared to expectations for a rise to 11.9%.

Weekly Fundamentals: Gold futures ended Friday’s session higher, as investors remained focused on the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy following the release of key U.S. labor and manufacturing data.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery edged up 0.4% on Friday to settle the week at USD1,666.80 a troy ounce.

Gold futures shot up to the highest levels of the session following the release of U.S. jobs data which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain its monetary easing program.

The U.S. Department of Labor said the economy added 157,000 jobs in December, slightly below expectations for a 160,000 increase, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9% for 7.8% in November.

But prices pared gains after data showed that U.S. manufacturing activity improved to a nine-month high in January while consumer sentiment unexpectedly improved in January.

In the week ahead, gold traders will be anticipating the outcome of upcoming policy meeting by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England on Thursday.

U.S. data on service sector activity scheduled for Tuesday will also be in focus. Any improvement in the U.S. economy could scale back expectations for further easing from the Fed.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for March delivery climbed 1.5% on Friday to settle the week at USD31.83 a troy ounce. On the week, silver future prices advanced 2.05%. GOLD Market Last Week:

Gold opened last week at 1659.09. After attempting low at 1651.78 on Monday, the precious metal took bullish momentum to as high as 1683.70 on Wednesday. For next two days Gold moved either ways but neither moved below weekly low nor above weekly high. Gold closed the consolidation week at 1666.80.

MARKET SENTIMENT

50% Bearish/Bullish

GOLD DAILY CHART

FOR MORE INFORMATION

For any query regarding market forecast please contact

Waqar Talpur Research Analyst [email protected] or

Shoaib Ahmed Research Analyst [email protected]



IMPORTANT ECONOMIC DATA FOR THIS WEEK

Monday, February 4 Australia is to release official data on building approvals, an excellent indicator of future construction activity. In the euro zone, Spain is to produce government data on the change in the number of people unemployed. The U.K. is to publish a report on construction sector activity, a leading indicator of economic health. The U.S. is to release official data on factory orders, a leading indicator of production.

Tuesday, February 5 New Zealand is to publish government data on labor costs, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

Australia is to release official data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports, in addition to data on house price inflation. Meanwhile, the RBA is to announce its official cash rate and publish its rate statement. Markets in New Zealand are to remain closed for a national holiday. The U.K is to publish a report on service sector activity, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as industry data on retail sales. The euro zone is to produce official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity, while Spain and Italy are to release data on service sector activity. Elsewhere in Europe, Switzerland is to publish government data on the trade balance. The Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. service sector activity.

Wednesday, February 6

Australia is to produce official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. In the euro zone, Germany is to release official data on factory orders, a leading indicator of production. Canada is to publish its Ivey purchasing managers’ index, a leading indicator of economic health. The U.S. is to release government data on crude oil inventories.

Thursday, February 7

New Zealand is to release quarterly government data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate. Japan is to release official data on core machinery orders, a leading indicator of production. Australia is to release quarterly government data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate, as well as private sector data on business confidence. The Swiss National Bank is to publish a report on foreign currency reserves, which give an insight into the extent of the bank’s currency market operations. Switzerland is also to produce official data on consumer climate. The U.K. is to release government data on manufacturing and industrial production, as well as a report on the trade balance. Later in the day, the BoE is to announce its benchmark interest rate. In the euro zone, both Spain and France are to hold auctions of 10-year government bonds, while Germany is to release official data on industrial production. Meanwhile, the ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate; the announcement is to be followed by a post-policy meeting press conference with President Mario Draghi. Canada is to publish a government report on building permits, as well as data on new house price inflation. The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, February 8

Japan is to produce official data on the current account. Elsewhere, China is to publish official data on consumer inflation. The RBA is to publish its monetary policy statement, which gives insights into the bank’s perspective on the outlook for the economy. Switzerland is to release official data on the unemployment rate and retail sales. Later in the day, Canada is to publish government data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate, as well as data on the trade balance. The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on the trade balance.



Economic Data Last Week

Monday, January 28, 2013

Currency Economic Data Actual Forecasted Previous

EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 3.30% 3.90% 3.80%

USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 1.30% 0.80% 1.20%

USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 4.60% 1.80% 0.80%

USD Pending Home Sales m/m -4.30% 0.50% 1.60%

Tuesday, January 29, 2013


AUD CB Leading Index m/m -0.20% 0.20%

EUR GfK German Consumer Climate 5.8 5.8 5.7

USD CB Consumer Confidence 58.6 64.8 66.7

Wednesday, January 30, 2013


JPY Retail Sales y/y 0.40% 0.40% 1.20%

GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 1.7B 0.9B 0.1B

USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 192K 164K 185K

USD Advance GDP q/q -0.10% 1.10% 3.10%

Thursday, January 31, 2013


USD FOMC Statement

USD Federal Funds Rate <0.25% <0.25% <0.25%

AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m 6.20% 3.00%

AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.40% 0.20% 0.00%

JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y -1.40% 1.10% -0.80%

GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 0.50% 0.30% 0.00%

EUR German Unemployment Change -16K 9K -2K

USD Unemployment Claims 368K 362K 330K

USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.00% 0.10% 0.00%

USD Personal Spending m/m 0.20% 0.40% 0.40%

USD Chicago PMI 55.6 51.1 51.6

Friday, February 01, 2013


JPY Household Spending y/y -0.70% -0.20% 0.20%

AUD PPI q/q 0.20% 0.30% 0.60%

CNY Manufacturing PMI 50.4 51.1 50.6

CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI 52.3 52.1 51.9

EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 46.1 45.5 44.6

EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 47.8 47.6 46.7

GBP Manufacturing PMI 50.8 51 51.2

EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 2.00% 2.20% 2.20%

EUR Unemployment Rate 0.117 11.90% 11.70%

USD Non-Farm Employment Change 157K 161K 196K

USD Unemployment Rate 7.90% 7.80% 7.80%

USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.20% 0.20% 0.30%

USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 53.1 50.8 50.7

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