Islington Part Two Report - · PDF fileAn Analysis of the Changing Nature of Urban Crime and Victimisation: A Focus on Islington Part Two

AnAnalysisoftheChangingNatureofUrbanCrimeandVictimisation:AFocusonIslington

PartTwo

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AUTHORS

RogerMatthews

HelenJohnson

KerryLee

Acknowledgements

WewouldliketothankHelenEaston,TaraYoung,DainisIgnatansandJanetRansomfortheirhelpandcontributionstothisresearch.

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CONTENTS

ListofFigures................................................................................................5

ListofTables.................................................................................................6

Part1:Overview...........................................................................................7

Introduction.......................................................................................................................................7

Theuseandlimitationsofpolicegenerateddata...............................................................................8

TheCrimeSurveyforEnglandandWalesData(CSEW).....................................................................10

Thecaseforconductinglocalcrimesurveys.....................................................................................13

Examiningcrimetrends....................................................................................................................13

Isviolencedecreasing?....................................................................................................................15

Trendsinpropertycrime..................................................................................................................18

Explainingcrimetrends....................................................................................................................20

Urbanandruralcrimetrends...........................................................................................................21

Summary.........................................................................................................................................24

Part 2: Examining the Changing Context of Crime Victimisation in Islingtonbetween1986-2016………………………………………………………………………………...…25

Introduction.....................................................................................................................................25

ThefirstIslingtoncrimesurveyincontext........................................................................................25

Thechangingsocial,politicalandeconomiccontext1986-2016.......................................................26

Changingformsofcrimeandcontrol...............................................................................................27

ThechangingdemographicsofIslingtonfrom1981to2011.............................................................29

GentrificationanddeprivationinIslingtonfrom1981to2011.........................................................30

Part3:AComparisonofPublicAttitudesandFearofCrimebetween1986and2016............................................................................................................32

Neighbourhoodsatisfaction.............................................................................................................32

Neighbourhoodconcerns.................................................................................................................32

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Concernsrelatingtocrime...............................................................................................................34

Viewsonchanginglevelsofcrime....................................................................................................35

Changingprioritiesandconceptionsofcrimebetween1986and2016.............................................36

Perceptionsofthelikelihoodofvictimisation..................................................................................37

FearofCrime...................................................................................................................................38

Avoidancebehaviours......................................................................................................................40

Securitymeasures............................................................................................................................40

WitnessingandReportingCrimes....................................................................................................41

Satisfactionwiththepolice..............................................................................................................41

Stopandsearch...............................................................................................................................42

Publicperceptionsofpoliceperformanceandattitudes...................................................................43

Co-operationwiththepolice............................................................................................................44

Part4:AComparisonbetween1986and2016SurveysbyCrimeType.........46

Overview.........................................................................................................................................46

PropertyCrime–burglaryandvandalism/criminaldamage.............................................................48

Personaltheft..................................................................................................................................49

Assault(1986),violenceandhatecrime(2016)................................................................................52

Sexualassault..................................................................................................................................52

Part5:SummaryandConclusion.................................................................53

Introduction.....................................................................................................................................53

Increasedneighbourhoodsatisfaction.............................................................................................53

Crimeasaneighbourhoodproblem.................................................................................................53

Fearofcrime....................................................................................................................................54

Attitudestowardsandco-operationwiththepolice........................................................................54

Womenandvictimisation................................................................................................................55

Ethnicityandvictimisation...............................................................................................................56

Thechangingdistributionofcrime...................................................................................................57

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Thechangingconcentrationofcrime…………………………………………………………………………………….……63

Newcrimes,newvictims……………………………………………………………………………………………………….....66

Theendofthecrimedrop?.........................................................................................................66.

References..................................................................................................66

Appendix1.DifferencesbetweentheformatofthetwoIslingtonCrimeSurveys.......................................................................................................69

Appendix2.Thecategorisationofrespondents...........................................71

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ListofFigures

Figure1:TrendsinCrimeSurveyforEnglandandWalesandpolicerecordedcrime.....................9

Figure2:RatioofpolicerecordedcrimestoCSEWreportedincidents.........................................11

Figure3:SelectedpolicerecordedcrimeoffencesinEnglandandWales.....................................14

Figure4:TrendsinCrimeSurveyforEnglandandWales,violence...............................................16

Figure5:Trendsinviolentcrime1981to2005/6,BCS.................................................................17

Figure6:Long-termtrendsinCSEW,totalcrimeandpropertycrime...........................................18

Figure7:Long-termtrendsinpropertycrimeCSEWDecember1981toMarch2016…………………19

Figure8:TrendsinselectedpolicerecordedtheftoffenceinEnglandandWales........................19

Figure9:BurglaryinEnglandandWales,1981-2006:incidence,prevalenceandconcentration...20

Figure10:VictimisationinLondonper100Households...............................................................22

Figure11:ComparisonoftheIslingtonpopulationin1981and2011byage,gender,andethnicity30

Figure 12: Comparison between Islington residents in 1981 and 2011 by tenure and economicactivity................................................................................................................................31

Figure13:Neighbourhoodissuesseenasamajororminorproblem…………………………………………34

Figure14:Crimeasamajororminorproblem............................................................................34

Figure15:Percentageofrespondentswhobelievespecificcrimeshaveincreased………………….35

Figure16:Percentageofmenandwomenwhofeelpersonallyatriskatnight............................39

Figure17:Percentageofmenandwomenavoidingcertainstreetsorareas................................40

Figure18:Satisfactionwithpoliceconduct1986and2016..........................................................42

Figure19:Percentageofrespondentswhobelievethatthepolicetreatpeoplefairly................43

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Figure20:Ratesofvictimizationper10,000households1986....................................................47

Figure21:Differencesbetweenvictimsandnon-victimsICS2016..............................................48

Figure22:PropertyvictimisationICS2016..................................................................................49

Figure23:PersonaltheftvictimisationICS2016.........................................................................50

Figure24:ViolenceandhatecrimevictimisationICS2016..........................................................51

Figure25:ICS2016comparisonofvictimsandnon-victimsbyethnicity......................................56

Figure26:Distributionofallcrimebyward1986........................................................................57

Figure27:Victimisation(weighted)bywardandincome:lineartrend........................................59

Figure28:Indexofdeprivationbyward……………………………………………………………………………………60

Figure29:Victimisationbycrimetypeandtenureper1000households1986.............................61

Figure30:Victimisationbycrimetypeandtenurein2016(weighteddata).................................61

Figure31:Repeatcrimesandrepeatvictimisationbyindividualcrimetype................................63

Figure32:Repeatvictimisation1986and2016...........................................................................64

ListofTables

Table1:Crimeratesinurbanandruralareascompared2003-04................................................21

Table2:LondonMetDataforAllLondon2000-2016...................................................................22

Table3:LondonMetDataforIslington2000-2016......................................................................24

Table4:ComparisonbetweenthesurveyrespondentsandIslingtonpopulation........................29

Table5:Changesintenurebetween1981to2011bynumberofhouseholds..............................31

Table6:Neighbourhoodsatisfactionbygender..........................................................................32

Table7:Topfiveneighbourhoodconcernsin1986and2016.......................................................33

Table8:Beliefaboutcrimeincreasebyage,gender,andethnicity..............................................36

Table9:Perceivedlikelihoodofvictimisation..............................................................................37

Table10:Feelingworried/unsafebyageandgender..................................................................39

Table11:Feelingworried/unsafebyethnicityandgender..........................................................39

Table12:Reportingofincidentstothepolice.............................................................................41

Table13:Satisfactionwithpolicehandlingofthecasebycrimetype..........................................41

Table14:Percentageofpeoplewhobelievethepolicepeoplefairlyandequally........................43

Table15:Comparisonofvictimcharacteristics1986and2016....................................................52

Table16:Percentagereportingvictimisation(weighted)andmeanaverageincomebyward201658

Table17:Concentrationofvictimisation.....................................................................................63

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Part1:Overview

Introduction

Over the past twodecadeswe have seen a remarkable decrease in recorded crime in England andWalesaccordingtoboththeCrimeSurveyofEnglandandWalesandpolicegenerateddata.However,there are some significant fluctuations and variations in different locations and amongst differentcrimetypes.

Inthissectionweaimtoexaminethechangingnatureofvictimisationinoneurbanarea–theLondonboroughof Islington.Thisanalysisdrawsupontwoprincipaldatasources– theFirst IslingtonCrimeSurvey published in 1986 and the more recent crime survey carried out some thirty years later.Becausethetwosurveysarebasedonslightlydifferentmethodologiesandincludeadifferentsetofquestions it is not possible to make direct comparisons. However, there is a sufficient degree ofoverlapbetweenthesetwosurveystodrawoutsomemeaningfulpointsofcomparison.Inparticular,theanalysisofthesetwodatasourceswilladdressthequestionofhowtheexperienceofcrimeandvictimisationhaschangedintheboroughoverthelastthreedecades,changesinperceptionsofcrime,and views on the neighbourhood and the police, as well as how victimisation has impacted ondifferentsocialgroupsoverthisperiod.

Apartfromthesegeneralformsofanalysisweaimtoexaminetwohypothesesthatclaimtoaccountfortherecentchangesinthedistributionofcrimeandvictimisation,particularlytheremarkable‘crimedrop’thathastakenplaceinEnglandandWalesoverthepasttwodecades.Theseare:

1. Thatboththedecreaseinrecordedcrimeandchangingpatternsofvictimisationarearesultofthe ability of themore affluent sections of the community to insulate themselves from therisksofvictimisation.

2. Thattherecentchanges incrimepatternsoverthepastthreedecadesarea functionof thechanging concentration of victimisation reflected in the changing degrees of multiplevictimisation.

Inthisreviewofchangingformsofcrimeandvictimisationoverthepastthreedecadeswebeginwithanexaminationoflocalandnationalpolicegenerateddataandofthevictimizationdataproducedbywhatwascalled theBritishCrimeSurvey (‘BCS’)and isnowknownas theCrimeSurvey forEnglandandWales(‘CSEW’).Ouraimistooutlinehowthesedatasourcesaregenerated,andtheirobjectives,aswellastheircredibilityandutility.

Wethenpresentasummaryofthetrendsincrimethatarepresentedintheofficialcriminalstatisticsand the national victimisation survey. In the process, we address in some detail the question ofwhetherviolentcrimeisincreasingordecreasing.Wethenlookatvariationsincrimeandvictimisationat the local level, city-wide and in rural areas. Thenwemoveon to themain sectionof the reportwhichlooksatthechangesinbothpropertyandviolentcrimeinIslingtonaswellasthedistributionandconcentrationofvictimisationintheborough.

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Theuseandlimitationsofpolicegenerateddata

Police recorded crime is the principal source of sub-national crime statistics. It is also the primarysourceof local crime statistics and for specificoffences suchashomicide.Althoughpolice recordedcrimeisnotcurrentlyconsideredareliablemeasureoftrendsincrimeformostcrimetypesthesedataarestillwidelyusedandreferredtoindiscussionsaboutchangesinthelevelanddistributionofcrime.FollowingtheassessmentofcrimestatisticsbytheUKStatisticsAuthoritypublishedinJanuary2014thestatisticsbasedonpolicerecordedcrimedatawerefoundnottomeettherequiredstandardfordesignationasNationalStatistics.

InarecentreportbytheHMIC(2014)itwasconcludedthatacrossEnglandandWalesasawholeanestimated that1 in5offences that shouldhavebeen recordedas crimeswerenot.However, therewasaconsiderablevariation inthe levelofunder-recordingacrossthedifferentoffencetypesbeinginvestigated.Itwasestimatedthat14%ofcriminaldamageandarsonoffencesthatshouldhavebeenrecordedascrimeswerenot,aswellas14%ofrobberyoffences,11%ofburglaryoffencesand17%ofotheroffences.

TheconclusionreachedbytheHMICintheirreportCrimeRecording:MakingtheVictimCount(2014)wasthat:

Victimsofcrimearebeingletdown.Thepolicearefailingtorecordalargeproportionofthecrimesreportedtothem.Over800,000crimesreportedtothepolicehavegoneunrecordedeachyear.Thisrepresentsanunderrecordingof19percent.Theproblemis greatest for victimsof violenceagainst thepersonand sexualoffences,where theunder-recording rates are 33 percent and 26 percent respectively. This failure torecordsuchasignificantproportionofreportedcrimeiswhollyunacceptable.

Even when crimes are correctly recorded, too many are removed or cancelled asrecordedcrimes fornogoodreason.Of the3,246decisionstocancel,orno-crime,acrimerecordthatwereviewed,664wereincorrect.Theseincludedover200rapesandmorethan250crimesofviolenceagainsttheperson.Offenderswhoshouldbebeingpursued by the police for these crimes are not being brought to justice and theirvictimsaredeniedservicestowhichtheyareentitled.(HMIC2014:p18)

These sentiments were reinforced and extended by the House of Commons Public AdministrationSelectCommittee(PASC2014).Theymadethepointthatdeficienciesinrecordingcrimedatareducepolice effectiveness in both protecting the public and reducing crime. A further implication of theunder-reporting of crime is that the rate of decrease in crimemay be exaggerated. Consequently,PASC decided in January 2014 to strip police recorded crime data of its designation as NationalStatistics.

One of the reasons given for the problems of crime recording is that the people responsible forgeneratingdataaresubjecttoperformanceapproval,meetingsettargetsandpoliticalpressure.Thesuggestionisthatthereisatendencyforthepolicetofocusonthoseoffencesthatareeasiesttoclearupandtorespondtogiventargets.

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As a consequence of the issues raised by HMIC and PASC some forces have changed their datacollection methods and police recorded crime totals have been modified. This developmentcompounds the changes in the nature of counting rules and the transition from the Home Officecountingrulesthatwere in forcebetween1982and1998andthe introductionofthenewcountingrulesbetween1989and2002.ThisinturnhasbeenfollowedbythepostNCRSimplementationsince2003(secFigure1).Moreover,fromtheendofMarch2012onwards,policerecordedcrimedatahaveincluded offences from additional sources including fraud data. This has had the effect of inflatingoverall levels of crime and making long-term trends more difficult to identify. Indeed the PublicAdministrationSelectCommittee(2014)concludedthatthePRCdata‘doesnotcorrectlyrepresenttherateofdecreaseincrimeorthecompositionofcrime’(p10).

However, therehavebeen somenotable increases in police recordeddataover thepast two yearswhichtheauthorsoftheCrimeSurveyforEnglandandWales(2016)noteandsuggestthatthiscouldbetheresultofanumberoffactorsbutacknowledgethat:‘itisdifficulttodisentanglethesedifferentfactors’(p6).

Figure 1: Trends in Crime Survey for England andWales and police recorded crime, year endingDecember1981toyearendingJune2016

TheOfficeforNationalStatisticshoweveraddresstherecentincreasesinthefollowingterms:

Apparentincreasesinpoliceforceareadatamayreflectanumberoffactors,includingtightening of recording practices, increase in reporting by victims and also genuineincreasesinthelevelofcrime.Itisthoughtthatincidentsofviolencearemoreopentosubjective judgements about recording and thus more prone to changes in policepractice(ONS2016).

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Figure 1: Trends in Crime Survey for England and Wales and police recorded crime, year ending December 1981 to year ending June 2016

Figures for the year to June 2016 CSEW showed that an estimated 7.0 million adults aged 16 and over were a victim of at least one crime . The likelihood of being a victim of CSEW crime has fallen significantly over time; 2

around 15 in 100 adults were victims in the latest survey year compared with around 23 in 100 a decade ago (in the survey year ending March 2006) and around 40 in 100 in 1995 (the peak survey year).

CSEW estimates of crimes experienced by children aged 10 to 15 are not directly comparable with the main survey of adults, so are not included in the headline total. In the latest survey year, the CSEW estimated that around 12 in 100 children aged 10 to 15 were victims of at least one crime. A total of 799,000 crimes were 3

experienced by children; of this number, 54% were categorised as violent crimes (428,000), 33% as thefts of 4

personal property (260,000), 9% as criminal damage to personal property (72,000) and 5% as robbery (40,000). Given the small sample size for the 10-to-15-year old element of the CSEW, estimates can fluctuate over time, and as a result trends can be difficult to interpret. Detailed data are available from .Tables F21, F22 and F23

Police recorded crime

The police recorded 4.6 million offences in the year ending June 2016, an increase of 7% compared with the 5

previous year. Of the 44 forces (including the British Transport Police), 38 showed an obvious annual increase, which was largely driven by rises in recording of violence against the person and sexual offences.

These increases need to be seen in the context of the renewed focus on the quality of crime recording by the police, in light of the inspections of forces by Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC), the Public

into crime statistics and the to Administration Select Committee (PASC) inquiry UK Statistics Authority’s decisionremove the National Statistics designation from police recorded crime statistics. This renewed focus is thought to have led to improved compliance with the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS), leading to the recording of a greater proportion of crimes that come to the attention of the police.

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The reality is thatpolicegenerateddata isunreliableandpartialandchanges in recordingpracticeshaveaffectedthedatainawaythatmakeslong-termtrendsdifficulttocalculate.

Ithasalsobeen suggestedby theseHMIC (2014) that the shift toneighbourhoodpolicing in recentyearsmayhaveledtoanumberoflowerleveloffencesbeingdealtwithinformally.However,itisnotclear the extent towhich thediscrepancies in the figures are a result of a deliberatemisreadingofevents or as a consequence of police officers’ misunderstanding or ignorance of the rules andprinciplesofcrimerecording.

TheCrimeSurveyforEnglandandWalesdata(CSEW)

The CSEW covers a broad range of victim-based crimes experienced by a sample of around 35,000adults. Firstestablished in1982surveyshavebeenconductedona regularbasisand this is seen toprovidetheabilitytocomparecrimetypesovertime.TheCSEWbyfocusingonvictimisationisabletocapture a wider range of incidents than those recorded by the police. However, there are someserious offences such as homicide and some sexual offences that are not included in its estimates.Also,theCSEWsampleframeexcludesthosenotlivingin‘normalhouseholds’.

AccordingtothePublicAdministrationSelectCommitteereportCaughtRedHanded(2014)theCSEWprovidesa‘benchmark’againstwhichpolicegenerateddatacanbecompared(seeFigure2).However,thereportstatesthattheCSEWcannotgiveadetailedindicationofcrimetrendsatalocallevelsincethesamplesizeistoosmallineachforceareaforthelocalareastatisticstogivemeaningfulresultsformost offences. Consequently, police recorded crime,with all of its limitations, is the only availabledetailedindicationofcrimetrendsatthelocallevel.

Theimplicitassumptioninnationalvictimisationsurveysisthatcrimeisitsowncauseandthatitcanbealteredbydirectlytargetingcrime,aswellasadoptingspecificstrategiessuchassituationalcrimeprevention and problem solving policing. In contrast, criminological research has suggested that‘exogenous’ socio-economicpredictorsofarea-level crime rates suchas theAreaDeprivation Index,which highlight social exclusion and the concentration of poverty,may bemore appropriate (Hope2007).

The CSEW also creates pseudo-neighbourhoods and artificial boundaries that have proven to havelimitedability topredicteither incidenceorprevalencerates (KershawandTseloni2005).There isatendency to average out or flatten variations within selected areas and itmay be overlooked thatcertainlocationsarecomposedofpopulationsthatareextremelyvulnerableorhighlyimmune.Thus,theresultingcrimepatternsmaybeanoutcomeoftheseconflictingforces.Patternsofcrimewillalsobeaffectedbydifferentformsofsecuritisation,particularlyintheformofprivatesecurityandgatedcommunities(Hope2001).

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Figure2:RatioofpolicerecordedcrimestoCSEWreportedincidents

Amajordifficulty incomparingmorerecentpatternsanddistributionsofvictimisationwiththoseofthe1980sand1990s isthatamajorsampleredesigntookplace intheBritishCrimeSurvey in2000.Until1998 theBritishCrimeSurveyoversampled innercityareas.However, from2000onwards thesample selection for primary stratification changed and the procedure for oversampling inner-cityareaswasabandonedinfavourofcreatingrepresentativesamplesfromeachofthePoliceForceAreas(PFAs).One implicationof this changeof strategy is that since 2000 there is a greater likelihoodofunder-selecting these inner city residents within their own neighbourhoods who between themproduceahighfrequencyofcrimevictimisation.

AccordingtotheindependentthinktankCivitas,thereallevelofcrimeismuchhigherthantheCrimeSurveyforEnglandandWalessuggestsbecauseithasomittedinthepastoffencesagainstthoseunder16aswellasoffencesagainstbusinessesandmanufacturerssuchasshoplifting.Italsodoesnotcountoffences against those living in institutions. Civitas estimated in 2005 that over 20million offencestakeplaceinEnglandandWalesthatdonotshowuponthesurvey.Ifthesecalculationsareaccuratetheyraiseissuesabouttheextentofthe‘crimedrop’andsuggeststhatcrimemaybeabiggerprobleminEnglandandWalesthantheCSEWsuggests(GreenandCackett2005).

One of themain points of uncertainty in the CSEWdata is calculating the number of victims of allCSEWcrimessincealladultsresident inahouseholdthathaveexperiencedacrime incidentagainstthehouseholdarecountedasvictimsofcrime.TheconsequenceisthatthenumberofadultswhoarevictimsofallCSEWincidentsislargerthanthenumberofincidentspresented.Thisresearchstrategymeansthatthefiguresforthetotalnumberofvictimsarearbitrarilyinflated.

Thereisatensioninconductingcrimesurveysbetweenbeing‘relevant’andbeing‘independent’.Theformer requires close control by theGovernment in settingpriorities and tends to compromise theaimofbeingindependent.Consequently,therehavebeencallsforanexternalindependentcompanytorunCSEWonthebasisthatthereneedstobeaseparationbetweenthosewhoproducestatisticaldataandthosewhodeliverpolicy.

The claims by the authors of CSEW (2016) that: 1) it provides a representative sample of thepopulation2) that themethodologyhasbeenconsistentover timeand3) that itprovidesa reliable

Caught red-handed: Why we can’t count on Police Recorded Crime statistics 11

decline than the CSEW for comparable offences, resulting in a smaller ratio of recorded crimes to CSEW crimes within the comparable subset, shown in the chart below.

21. While the ONS analysis has said that “the data can’t tell us why the police appear to be recording a lower proportion of crime reported to them than in previous years”, it did suggest that declining standards of compliance with the established recording rules may have contributed to this divergence:

Given the consistent pattern, one possible hypothesis is that there has been a gradual erosion of compliance with the NCRS such that a growing number of crimes reported to the police are not being captured in crime recording systems.9

Among the possible drivers for this divergence, the ONS suggested the following:

• lack of awareness or adequate understanding of the NCRS as time passes from its launch leading to some officers recording ‘as charged’ or ‘if detected’ which might result from staff turnover and lack of sufficient on-going training;

• performance pressures associated with targets (for example, to reduce crime or increase detection rates) acting as perverse incentives for some crimes to be downgraded from notifiable into non-notifiable categories or as anti-social behaviour or as crime-related incidents (which are not captured in data returned to the Home Office);

9 As above, p10

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measureoflongtermtrendsareopentodispute.Inadditionthereareissuesofsamplingstrategyandtheabilityofrespondentstorecallpasteventsaccurately.Thereareanumberofcrimetypesthatareexcluded(e.g.homicide,drugoffencesandbusinesscrime)aswellasthoseoffencesthataredifficulttocaptureinavictimisationsurveysuchassexualoffences.Moreover,thedataonwhichtheCSEWisbased are subject to a number of possible limitations, particularly those related to the recall ofrespondents.There isatendencyeitherforrespondentstopresentselective incidentsthatoccurredoutsideof the timeperiodoralternatively tooverlook incidents thathaveoccurredwithin the timeperiod. In addition, in large-scale surveys of this type there is also a real possibility of interviewererror.

Although it is frequentlymaintained that the CSEWhasmaintained a consistentmethodology overtimetherehavebeensomeimportantchanges.Notably,priorto2002CSEWrespondentswereaskedabout their experience of crime in the previous calendar year. Following the introduction ofcontinuous interviewing respondents’experienceof crime relates to the full twelvemonthsprior tothe interview.Asaresulttheperiodofreference ismovedand itbecomesdifficulttomakeyearonyearcomparisons.

Justastherehasbeenatendencytounder-recordcrimebythepolicesothereisatendencytounder-report crimeby theCSEW.This tendency is linked to theomissionof victimisationof youngpeopleaged 10-15 until 2009. In the 2015 CSEW itwas estimated that therewere approximately 800,000incidents of victimisation experienced by young people in this age group over half of which werecategorised as involving violencewhile a third involved thefts of personal property.Moreover, theauthorsof theCSEWnote that as a result ‘trends canbedifficult to interpret’ (CSEW2016:9). Thesample size for 10-15 year olds is only 3,000 to cover this age group in England and Wales.Consequently, theCSEWlikepolicerecordedcrimeonlyprovidesaverypartialpictureofcrimeandvictimisation,whichmakesitdifficulttotrackcrimetrends.

In sum, victimisation surveys are particularly weak in relation to surveying sensitive topics such assexualoffences,rapeanddruguse.Understandably,respondentsmaybeunwillingtogivedetailsoftheseexperiencestoaninterviewerwhomtheydonotknow.

Anumberoffactorscanaffecttheresponserateandsubstanceofthesurvey:

• Theagerangeoftherespondents• Thelengthofrecallperiod• Whethertheyarepanelorhouseholdsurveys• Thedesignofthequestionnaireandrelationbetweenstructuredandopen-endedquestions• Whetherinterviewsarecomputerbasedorfacetoface

Simplyintermsofqualitydatacollectedmaybealteredby:

• Alackofawarenessthatacrimehasbeencommitted• Forgettingrelevantincidents• Anunwillingnesstothinkseriouslyaboutquestions• Amisunderstandingaboutthemeaningofthequestions

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Thecontentofthesurveycanalsoaffectresponsesincluding:

• Theclimateofpublicopinionatthetimeofthesurvey• Theauspicesunderwhichthesurveyisbeingcarriedout• Theperceivedpurposeofthesurvey• Thecharacteristicsoftheinterviewer• Thephysicalsettingoftheinterview• Theorderofquestions

Thecaseforconductinglocalcrimesurveys

InareviewofcrimedatawhichProfessorAdrianSmithcarriedoutfortheSecretaryofStatein2006heclaimedthatthe‘scopeanddefinitions’ofthenationalstatisticsthatareprovidedneedaradicaloverhaul that significant groups of victims are not covered by current surveys and certain majorcurrent crime category definitions are confusing andmisleading. Adrian Smith argued that nationalcrimedataareoftenatoddswithindividualsownexperienceandthatthecalculationdatashouldbemadeavailable inamoreaccessiblewaysince it isa ‘public’resource,not justownedbythepolice.Most importantly that crime data needs to be available in a way that holds the police and localauthoritytoaccount.

Thus, it issuggestedthat localcrimesurveyshavethepotentialofprovidingdetailedinformationonvictimisation and are based on the recognition that crime varies considerably from area to area.Moreover,incontrasttonationalcrimesurveysbasedonaggregatestatisticaldata,localsurveyscanmakeasignificantcontributiontolocalcrimecontrolpolicies.

Examiningcrimetrends

Despite these caveats and limitationsof bothpolice recordeddata and theCSEW it is necessary todrawonthesedatasincetheyprovidetheonlyavailableguidetocrimetrendsinEnglandandWales.Although we need to proceed with due caution an examination of these data sources will beundertaken in an attempt to gain some understanding of the changing nature of crime andvictimisationinEnglandandWalesoverthepastthreedecades.

Figure 1 above provides a widely circulated overview of crime trends according to both policegenerateddataandtheCSEW.ThetrenddepictedbytheCSEW,whichisoftenheldtoprovideamorereliable account of crime trends, indicates a steady increase the total number of offences between1982 and 1994. Thereafter there is virtually year on year decreasewith the total level of crime in2012/13significantlylowerthanitwasin1982andsome40%lowerthanin1994/95.

The police recorded data, on the other hand, presents a slightly different picture with somefluctuationsthatmayreflectachangeinthecountingrulesandthewayinwhichdifferent incidentsarerecorded.Significantly,thereisadecreaseinrecordedcrimeundertheoldcountingrulesbetween1992and1998/99,aswellasadecreaseafterimplementationofNCRSfrom2002/3to2012/13.

Interestingly, there has been a 7% increase in police recorded crime between 2015 and 2016. Thisincreasemayinpartbeduetotheimplementationofmorerigorousrecordingproceduresfollowingthe HMIC reports. However, according to police generated data there has also been a significant

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increaseinviolenceagainsttheperson(up24%),publicorderoffences(up28%)andsexualoffences(up14%).Inaddition,therehavebeenmoderateincreasesintheft(up5%),vehicleoffences(up4%),fraud(up5%)andshoplifting(up3%)(seeFigure3).

Figure 3: Selectedpolice recorded crimeoffences in England andWales: volumes andpercentagechangebetweenyearendingJune2015andyearendingJune2016

The immediatequestionthatarises fromthesefigureswhetherthis is thebeginningofanupturn incrimeandat thesametime there isan indicationofa significantdisparitybetweenpolice recordeddata and the CSEW. The CSEW continues to show a decrease in most offence categories with theexceptionofviolence,whichshowsnochangefrom2015/16butthereisareported15%decreaseinthecategory‘violencewithinjury’aswellasa6%increaseinhomicides(CSEW2016).

TheCSEWincludedaself-completionquestionnairein2005whichwasdesignedtocaptureincidentsofdomesticviolence.Again, theCSEWresults showstability in thenumberof reportedcases,whilethepolice recordeddata indicatea21% increase in sexualoffences.This includesa22% increase inrape.Incontrast,theCSEWreportsasignificantincreaseinfraud,particularlyplasticcardfraud,whilethepolicerecordedcrimefigureswhichhavebeenreportedtoActionFraudandtheNationalFraudIntelligenceBureau(NF1B)aresignificantlylowerthantheCSEWreports.CreditcardandbankfraudarelesslikelytobereferredtotheNFIBandonlythemoreseriousincidentsarelikelytobereportedtothepolice.

Inanoverviewofcrimetrendsoverthepasttwenty-fiveyearsaHomeOfficereportbasedonBritishCrimeSurvey/CSEWdatahasprovideddetails about reported changes inbothproperty and violentcrime as well as changing levels of fear and risk (Janssen 2007). The report claims that the risk ofvictimisationdecreasedfrom28%ofthepopulationto23%between1981and2005/6.Significantly,however, the composition of crimes has changed little between 1981 and 2005/6. For example, in1981 20%of BCS incidentswere violent crimes andby 2005/6 thepercentageof violent crimehadincreasedslightlyto23%.

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1.

Figure 2: Selected police recorded crime offences in England and Wales: volumes and percentage change between year ending June 2015 and year ending June 2016

Source: Police recorded crime, Home Office

Notes:

Police recorded crime data are not designated as National Statistics.

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ThemostnoticeabledecreaseoverthepasttwodecadesinBCSreportedcrimehasbeeninrelationtovehiclecrime.Thedecreaseinvehiclerelatedcrimehasbeenattributedtovarioussecuritymeasuresthathavebeenappliedtovehicles(Farralletal2011).InEnglandandWalescloseto90%ofcarshadcentral lockingdevices fittedby2006-7and69%hadanelectronic immobiliser. Thecombinationofthesesecuritymeasures,itisclaimed,hashadamajorimpactonvehiclerelatedcrime,notablyintheUKbutinothercountriesaswell.Indeed,theapplicationofsecuritymeasuresnotonlytovehiclesbuttootherobjectssuchastheuseofdoorandwindowlocksitisclaimedliesbehindthesocalled‘crimedrop’thathastakenplacenationallyandinternationallysincethemid1990s(Tselonietal2010).

Whiletherecanbelittledoubtthattheelaboratearrayofsecuritymeasuresthathavebeenappliedtovehiclesoverthepasttwodecadesorsohavehadanimpactoncarrelatedcrimetheclaimthatitisonlysecuritymeasuresthataretotallyresponsibleforeitherthedecreaseinvehiclerelatedcrimeinparticularor the ‘crimedrop’ ingeneral isquestionable. Ina recentHomeOffice report it isarguedthatthetimingoftheintroductionofthesesecuritymeasuresdoesnotfitverywellwiththerecordeddecreasesofvehiclerelatedcrimeintheUKorothercountriesandthatcrimedecreasewasalreadyunderway:

Overall then,theanalysissuggeststhatvehiclesecurity–andelectronic immobilisersinparticular–madeanimportantcontributiontoanalreadyfallingtrendratherthancausinginitialcrimeturnaround(Morganetal.2016:8).

Thisconclusionsuggeststhattherewereotherfactorsinplay,notonlyinrelationtovehiclecrimebutalso in relation to other crime types. Interestingly, the figures for the year 2014-15 showed a 3%increase in police recorded thefts from vehicles in England and Wales - the first increase in twodecades.

According to BCS data therewere 733,000 burglaries in 2005/6,which is just slightly less than the749,000thatwererecorded in1981.BurglariesrecordedbytheBCSpeaked in1995with1,770,000incidents. Since then the number of domestic burglaries has decreased by 59%. The BCS data for2005/6showthatthefactorsassociatedwithahigherriskofvictimisationare:a)havingnosecuritymeasures,b)thehouseholdreferencepersonbeingunemployedandc)livinginadeprivedareawithhighlevelsofphysicaldisorder(Walkeretal2006).

Fearofcrimealsoappearstohavedecreasednationallysincethe1980s.Sincetheintroductionofthe‘fear of crime’ questions into the BCS in 1984, worry about all types of crime has decreased untilrecently.These‘fears’appeartobeassociatedwithpeople’sexpectationsoffuturevictimisationandthisisparticularlysoforthoselivinginhighcrimeareas.

Isviolencedecreasing?

According to theCSEWbothpropertycrimeandviolentcrimehavedecreasedsteadilyover the lasttwentyyears.However,althoughtherecanbelittledoubtthattherehasbeenasignificantdecreaseinmostformsofpropertycrimethedecreaseinviolentcrimeisfarlesscertain.

A major consideration when estimating crime trends is the period covered. Much of the recentliteraturehasfocusedontheperceiveddecreaseincrimefromitspeakintheearly1990s,butifwetakea longer-termview thedecreaseappearsmuch lessdramatic. Ifweexamine theCSEWviolent

16

crimetrendsfromtheearlier1990stothepresentday itmaybemoreappropriatetotrytoexplainwhyviolentcrimepeakedinthemid1990s(seeFigure4).

Figure4:TrendsinCrimeSurveyforEnglandandWales,violence,yearendinginDecember1981toyearendingJune2016

The CSEW surveys show a 41% decrease in violent crime between 1995 and 2002. This has beenfollowedbyamoregradualdecrease.Itishoweverestimatedthatbetween2009and2015therewasa26%decrease.

Ifwebreakthebroadcategoryof ‘violence’down intodifferent formsofviolence it isevident fromthevictimformmoduleoftheCSEW(ONS2013:TableA1)thatfollowingafall indomesticviolencebetween1993and2010to289,000incidents,thisoffencesubsequentlyincreasedto398,000in2013(Walbyetal.2016).

Inconsideringthesechangesitisimportanttonotethatthereisadifferencebetweenthenumberofvictimsandthenumberofincidentsreported.Assuchtherewillbefluctuationsovertimeinrelationtothenumberofvictimsandthenumberofincidents,dependingonthelevelofrepeats(Hope1995;FarrallandPease2007).

A significant feature of the CSEW is that the data are capped. In England and Wales all seriousincidentshavebeencappedatfivesincethesurvey’sinceptionin1982.Inanattempttore-examinetrendsinviolentcrimeandvictimization.Walbyetal(2016)havereworkedthecappeddatafromtheCSEW and developed an estimate of a three-year average in order to provide a more reliablemeasurement of volatility over time. By adopting this approach they conclude that since 2009 thatnineofthetwelveformsofviolentcrimeexaminedshowasignificantchangeofslopeandthattheymay now be increasing. These forms of violent crime include violence against women, includingdomesticviolence,whileviolentcrimeagainstmencontinuestodecrease.

Page 26 of 50

1.

Figure 3: Trends in Crime Survey for England and Wales violence, year ending December 1981 to year ending June 2016

Source: Crime Survey for England and Wales, Office for National Statistics

Notes:

Prior to the year ending March 2002, CSEW respondents were asked about their experience of crime in the previous calendar year, so year-labels identify the year in which the crime took place. Following the change to continuous interviewing, respondents' experience of crime relates to the full 12 months prior to interview (ie a moving reference period). Year-labels for the year ending March 2002 onwards identify the CSEW year of interview.

Recent trends in violent crime, as shown by the CSEW, are also reflected in evidence from conducted researchby the Violence and Society Research Group at Cardiff University. Findings from their annual survey, covering a sample of hospital emergency departments and walk-in centres in England and Wales, show that serious violence-related attendances in 2015 were broadly similar to the level recorded in 2014 following a declining trend seen in earlier years.

Police recorded crime

Violent offences in police recorded data are referred to as “violence against the person” and include homicide, violence with injury and violence without injury . As with the CSEW, both actual and attempted assaults are 3

included in the figures. It should also be noted that the police recorded crime category of violence against the person also include some offences, such as harassment and stalking, in which there is no physical assault involved.

There was a 24% increase in the number of violence against the person offences recorded by the police in the latest year (up to 1,035,162) compared with the previous year. Part of this increase is down to the expansion of the harassment category to include 2 additional notifiable offences. Improvements in crime-recording practices and processes are also thought to be a key driver of this increase as well as an increase in the proportion of victims reporting crimes to the police.

17

An alternative measure of violence has been provided by researchers based at Cardiff University(Shepherd 2015). Based on a sample of 91 Emergency Departments (EDs),Minor Injury Units, andWalk-inCentres inEnglandandWales, theresearchers foundthat therewereanestimated102,818fewerEDviolence relatedattendances in2015comparedwith2010.Males, itwas found,were twoandahalf timesmore likely than females to receiveED treatment followingviolence related injury.Serious violence affecting children (0-10 years) and young adults (18-30) decreased by 9% and 4%respectivelyin2015comparedwith2014.

Whenexaminingtrendsinviolencethereisatendencytofocusonthedecreasefromthepeakinthemid1990s.However, ifwe takea longer-termviewof theviolenceand take theearly1980sasourstarting pointwe can see according to BCS data that the level of violence has fallen back to levelssimilartothirtyyearsago.In1981,therewere2.2millionviolentincidentsreportedtotheBCSandin2005/6thisfigurewas2.4million(Janssen2007).

Figure5:Trendsinviolentcrime1981to2005/6,BCS

Source:BritishCrimeSurvey(Walker,KershawandNicholas,2006)

Therehave,ofcourse,beenchanges inBCSsamplingproceduresandthequestionnairedesignoverthe period, whichmakes these findings not directly comparable, but there are clear indications ofchangesinthesocialandgeographicalcompositionofvictimsduringthe1980sand1990s(Trickettetal1995).

Therewasa27%increaseinviolenceagainstthepersonoffencesrecordedbythepolice intheyearendingMarch 2016 compared with the previous year and the latest figures represent the highestnumber recorded in a 12 month period since the introduction of the NCRS in 2002. The policerecorded 571 homicides in the last year, 34 more than in the previous year, an increase of 6%.Interestingly,thepolicerecordeddataforsexualoffencesinEnglandandWalesshowsanincreaseinsexualoffencesandthemajorityofthosevictimswillbewomen.InlinewiththefindingsofWalbyetal (2016) police recorded data show an increased in reported rape since 2009 and a significantincreasein‘othersexualoffences’since2013.

Measuring crime for 25 years

12

Trends and risk of violent crime

The BCS is able to provide a robust and consistent measure of the general experience of violence in England andWales. However, for more serious violence (such as attempted murder or robbery), their relatively rare occurrencemeans that insufficient numbers of survey respondents report being victims of such crimes and therefore policestatistics are the more reliable source.

Overall, according to the BCS, numbers of violent incidents have fallen back to similar levels to 25 years ago. Therewere approximately 2.2 million violent incidents in 1981, and 2.4 million based on the 2005/06 BCS. The latestfigures show a significant reduction of 43 per cent from the peak of 4.3 million violent crimes in 1995.

Many of the violent crimes reported to the BCS are relatively low level violence (such as pushing and shoving) andaround half of the violent crime does not involve any injury to the victim.

The BCS has always been able to provide information about the relationship between offenders and victims. It is notpossible to obtain this information from police recorded crime figures. There are clear differences in the trendsbetween different types of violent crimes. There have been significant falls in both acquaintance and domesticviolence; however, the reductions in stranger violence have not been significant.

2005/0

6

2004/0

5

2003/0

4

2002/0

3

2001/0

2200

0199

9199

7199

5199

3199

1198

7198

3198

10

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Mugging (robbery and snatch theft)

StrangerAcquaintanceDomestic violence

Numb

ers o

f crim

es (th

ousan

ds)

Trends in violent crime, 1981 to 2005/06 BCS

Source: Crime in England and Wales 2005/06 (Walker, Kershaw and Nicholas, 2006)

18

Trendsinpropertycrime

PropertycrimeaccordingtotheCSEWshowedsteadyincreasesthroughoutthe1980sreachingapeakin1995. Since then respective surveyshave shownadecreaseofover60%.This trend is consistentwiththatseeninanumberofothercountries(VanDyke,TseloniandFarrell2012)

Figure6:Long-termtrendsinCSEW,totalcrimeandpropertycrime,yearendingDecember1981toyearendingMarch2016

Propertycrimeaccountsforapproximately80%ofallcrimecoveredintheCSEW.Since1995,thelevelof property crime has decreased significantly according to the CSEW with the most noticeabledecreasesoccurringinrelationtovehiclerelatedincidents.Domesticburglaryhasalsofallenoverthisperiod.

Page 10 of 41

1.

Criminal damage peaked in the 1993 survey with 3.4 million incidents, followed by a series of modest falls (when compared with other CSEW offence types) until the survey year ending March 2004 (2.4 million offences). There was then a short upward trend until the survey year ending March 2007 CSEW (2.9 million offences), after which there were falls to its current level, the lowest since the survey began. So now, in a reversal from the earlier years of the property crime decline, criminal damage has been the biggest driving factor in the fall, rather than burglary or vehicle crime.

Figure 4: Long-term trends in Crime Survey for England and Wales criminal damage, other theft of personal property, vehicle-related theft and domestic burglary, year ending December 1981 to year ending March 2016


Notes:

Prior to the year ending March 2002, CSEW respondents were asked about their experience of crime in the previous calendar year, so year-labels identify the year in which the crime took place. Following the change to continuous interviewing, respondents' experience of crime relates to the full 12 months prior to interview (i.e. a moving reference period), so year-labels from the year ending March 2002 onwards identify the CSEW year of interview.

Figure 5 shows the long-term trends in CSEW “other household theft” , theft from the person , bicycle theft and 2 3

robbery from 1981 to the survey year ending March 2016. These crime types have shown somewhat different trends compared with those seen for overall CSEW property crime (Figure 3).

“Other household theft” mostly includes theft from outside a dwelling but also includes theft from inside the home where the offender had the right to be there; for example, workmen or an acquaintance of the victim. These offences peaked in 1993 and then declined until the survey year ending March 2008 (778,000 offences). This was then followed by a brief upward trend, until the survey year ending March 2012, when a further general decline in “other household theft” began. The survey year ending March 2016 estimate (672,000 offences) is the lowest recorded since the introduction of the survey.

Estimates of the volume of theft from the person offences have shown only a slight downward trend over the period from the late 1990s. However, over the last 2 financial years the rate of change has been more pronounced. In the latest survey year, a non-significant fall of around 19% was seen compared with the previous survey year. In contrast, in the latest year theft from the person offences recorded by the police have increased by 6% compared with the previous year.

19

Figure7:Long-termtrendsinpropertycrimeCSEWDecember1981toMarch2016

Police recordeddata showa similar decrease in vehicle crime andburglary but showa decrease intheftfromthepersonandrobberyaswellasanincreaseinshoplifting,bicycletheftandfraud,whichhaveincreasedsignificantly.

Domesticburglaryandothertheftofpersonalpropertypeakedinthemid1990sbutfellsteadilyuntil2008-9.Ithassinceleveledout.During2015-2016theftfromthepersonhasincreased.Accordingtopolice recorded data there has been a steady decrease in theft offences since 2003. However forburglary,vehicletheft,bicycletheftandrobberytherehasbeenalevelingoutoverthepasttwoyears(seeFigure8).

Figure8:TrendsinselectedpolicerecordedtheftoffenceinEnglandandWales

Page 10 of 41

1.

Criminal damage peaked in the 1993 survey with 3.4 million incidents, followed by a series of modest falls (when compared with other CSEW offence types) until the survey year ending March 2004 (2.4 million offences). There was then a short upward trend until the survey year ending March 2007 CSEW (2.9 million offences), after which there were falls to its current level, the lowest since the survey began. So now, in a reversal from the earlier years of the property crime decline, criminal damage has been the biggest driving factor in the fall, rather than burglary or vehicle crime.

Figure 4: Long-term trends in Crime Survey for England and Wales criminal damage, other theft of personal property, vehicle-related theft and domestic burglary, year ending December 1981 to year ending March 2016


Notes:

Prior to the year ending March 2002, CSEW respondents were asked about their experience of crime in the previous calendar year, so year-labels identify the year in which the crime took place. Following the change to continuous interviewing, respondents' experience of crime relates to the full 12 months prior to interview (i.e. a moving reference period), so year-labels from the year ending March 2002 onwards identify the CSEW year of interview.

Figure 5 shows the long-term trends in CSEW “other household theft” , theft from the person , bicycle theft and 2 3

robbery from 1981 to the survey year ending March 2016. These crime types have shown somewhat different trends compared with those seen for overall CSEW property crime (Figure 3).

“Other household theft” mostly includes theft from outside a dwelling but also includes theft from inside the home where the offender had the right to be there; for example, workmen or an acquaintance of the victim. These offences peaked in 1993 and then declined until the survey year ending March 2008 (778,000 offences). This was then followed by a brief upward trend, until the survey year ending March 2012, when a further general decline in “other household theft” began. The survey year ending March 2016 estimate (672,000 offences) is the lowest recorded since the introduction of the survey.

Estimates of the volume of theft from the person offences have shown only a slight downward trend over the period from the late 1990s. However, over the last 2 financial years the rate of change has been more pronounced. In the latest survey year, a non-significant fall of around 19% was seen compared with the previous survey year. In contrast, in the latest year theft from the person offences recorded by the police have increased by 6% compared with the previous year.

Page 11 of 41

1.

Since these are relatively low volume offences, CSEW estimates may be more volatile than for other offence types. Additionally, much of this fall (77%) resulted from a statistically significant reduction in attempted thefts within this offence category. Attempted thefts are less likely to be reported to the police in the first instance and be visible within trends based on police recorded crime. In the current survey year, it was estimated only 9% of attempted snatch or stealth thefts were reported to the police, compared with an average of 46% of actual snatch or stealth thefts.

Bicycle theft peaked in 1995 and then declined until around the early 2000s. Since the survey year ending March 2003, while the overall trend has remained relatively flat, there has been some year-on-year fluctuation.

Robbery has remained a low volume offence across the history of the survey, typically accounting for around 2% to 3% of CSEW property crime. Levels have fluctuated from year to year and showed a small upward trend during the 1990s, peaking in the 1999 survey, before falling to levels similar to those seen in the 1980s. However, it should be noted that owing to the small number of robbery victims interviewed, CSEW estimates have large confidence intervals and are prone to fluctuation from year to year ( ).User Guide Tables UG2 to UG9

There is no clear trend within the estimates for property crime experienced by children aged 10 to 15 and data are only available from the survey year ending March 2010 onwards. The relatively small number of children aged 10 to 15 interviewed by the CSEW means that the estimates for crime experienced by children aged 10 to 15 are prone to substantial year-on-year fluctuation.

Figure 5: Long-term trends in Crime Survey for England and Wales other household theft, theft from the person, bicycle theft and robbery, year ending December 1981 to year ending March 2016


Notes:

Prior to the year ending March 2002, CSEW respondents were asked about their experience of crime in the previous calendar year, so year-labels identify the year in which the crime took place. Following the change to continuous interviewing respondents' experience of crime relates to the full 12 months prior to interview (i.e. a moving reference period), so year-labels from the year ending March 2002 onwards identify the CSEW year of interview.

20

Explainingcrimetrends

In order to analyse crime trends over time,many researchers simply refer to the ‘headline’ figuresshowinganincreaseordecreaseinreportedcrimeorvictimisation.However,criminologistswhohaveexaminedtheseissueshavedevelopedthenotionof‘crimeflux’,whichdistinguishesbetween:

• Theincidencerate,whichisthepercapitanumberofhouseholdcrimevictimisationincidents• Theprevalencerate,whichisthenumberofvictimisationincidentspervictim• The concentration rate, which is the number of times that the same victims have been re-

victimised• The composition of crime types, which involves relative changes in the relation between

differenttypesofcrimeovertime

There can be considerable variance between incidence and prevalence rates. This variance will beaffected by the concentration rate, particularly in high crime areas (Hope 2007). The concentrationrate will, in turn, exert an influence on the crime victimisation rate. As Figure 9 below indicateschangesinthecaseofdomesticburglaryratesmayhavebeendrivenbychangesinprevalencerates,whiletherateofconcentrationhasremainedfairlystable.

Figure9:BurglaryinEnglandandWales,1981-2006:incidence,prevalenceandconcentration

Source:T.Hope(2007)

InananalysisofBCSdataonchangesinpropertycrimebetween1982and1988itwasfoundthattherecorded changes were largely attributable to changes in concentration rather than to victimprevalence(Trickettetal1995).Theauthorsarguethat:

Clarifying the basis of area differences in these terms is not merely a trivial orstatisticalexercise.Totaketwoimplausibleextremes,ifareadifferencesturnedouttobeafunctionexclusivelyofvictimprevalence,crimecontrolactivitywouldneedtobespreadthroughoutthecommunitiessufferingmuchcrime,sincepeoplewhohadnotyetbeenvictimisedinthoseareasnonethelesswouldbeatsubstantialriskoffalling

27

Figure 3

21

victims.At theoppositeextreme, if areadifferenceswere tobepurelya functionofthe number of victimisations per victim, crime control could concentrate in thevictimizedpopulation, since theyare theonlygroupatheightened risk inhighcrimeareas(Trickettetal.1995:344)

Urbanandruralcrimetrends

There are significant differences in the level and distribution of crime in urban, suburban and ruralareas.AccordingtotheBCSdatacrimeratesinurbanandinnercityareaarebetweentwoandthreetimeshigherthaninruralareas.

Table1:Crimeratesinurbanandruralareascompared2003-04

Areatype %Victimsonceormore

Allvehicletheft AllBCSburglary AllBCSviolence

Innercity 15.3 5.3 5.8

Urban 10.3 3.3 4.4

Allnon-rural 10.8 3.6 4.6

Rural 6.5 1.9 2.7

Allhouseholds/adults 9.7 3.2 4.1

Source:CSEW2003-04,table6.04

There is also considerable variationbetweendifferent urban areas in termsof recorded crimewithNottingham having almost five times the level of crime of the safest town in national rankings –Colchester. Interestingly, London has been ranked 21st out of 55 for the overall rate of seriousoffences. This is partly because London contains some of the safest communities in the country,notably Richmond and Kingston-Upon-Thames. However, London also includes some of the mostdangerous urban areas in the country with eleven London boroughs in the top twenty worstperformingareasonsixmeasuresofcrimeseriousness(GibbsandHaldenby2006).WestminstertopstherankingsforseriouscrimefollowedbyIslingtonandHackney.

London, like other parts of the country has experienced a significant decrease in crime andvictimisationoverthepasttwodecades.AsFigure10belowindicatestherehasbeenadramaticdropinvehiclerelatedcrimeandasteadydecrease inviolentcrime-at leastuntil2014accordingtotheCSEW.

Metropolitanpolicedatashowsasimilardecreaseinrecordedcrimebetween2001/02and2012/13,as Table2below indicates.However, it shouldbenoted thatboth that violenceagainst thepersonpeakedintheperiod2004-06andthatthe levelofviolence in2011/12wasverysimilarto2001/02,whilesexualoffenceshaveincreasedovertheperiodfrom6,759in2001/02to9,841in2012/13.Drugrelatedoffenceshavealsoincreasedinthisperiodwhileburglaryandpersonalrobberyhaveremainedfairly stable. The offences with the most significant decreases between 2001/02 to 2012/13 arecriminaldamageandfraud.

22

Table2:LondonMetDataforAllLondon2000-2016

Year Total Violence SexualOffences

Drugs Robbery(Personal)

Burglary Theftandhandling

FraudandForgery

CriminalDamage

2000-01 994,233 155,276 6,759 23,626 37,623 112,376 451,740 83,453 144,231

2001-02 1,057,360 161,359 5,944 26,206 49,446 116,027 443,572 87,873 147,804

2002-03 1,080,741 178,802 10,427 33,321 38,948 113,027 463,710 82,896 144,374

2003-04 1,060,930 186,188 10,200 32,332 37,476 105,361 448,818 78,133 147,465

2004-05 1,015,121 201,926 10,864 33,011 36,807 101,474 412,264 70,144 135,684

2005-06 984,125 197,264 10,293 42,681 42,481 103,510 400,376 52,319 122,400

2006-07 921,779 182,355 9,305 53,967 42,460 96,728 365,714 42,957 113,938

2007-08 862,632 172,743 8,766 71,260 33,645 93,894 332,156 33,011 102,493

2008-09 845,040 174,414 8,748 76,545 29,344 93,575 313,329 38,862 95,224

2009-10 829,319 174,616 9,930 67,500 30,202 92,807 312,542 38,151 88,270

2010-11 823,419 165,899 10,177 64,046 32,848 93,401 324,126 37,991 80,339

2011-12 814,727 153,841 10,110 61,003 36,131 96,193 332,608 38,287 72,932

2012-13 771,566 149,716 9,841 52,386 32,335 92,684 333,769 27,173 59,924

Significantly,accordingtodatasuppliedbytheMetropolitanPolicetherehasbeenasteadyincreaseinthetotallevelofrecordedcrimebetween2012/13and2015/16.Duringthisperiod,thetotalnumberofoffenceshasincreasedfrom710,000to761,869.

Itshouldbenotedthatthecategory‘vehicleoffences’hasshownanincreaseof15,227incidents(4%)in theyearendingMarch2016.This is the first increase in this category since2006. Shopliftinghasincreasedaccording topolicedatabetween2013and2016.Moreover, sinceMarch2008 therehasbeenanannualoverall increaseof5%intheftfromthepersonoffencesrecordedbythepolice.Thisincrease in theft from the person has been recorded in around two-thirds of police forces and isbelievedtomostlyinvolvethetheftofpursesandwallets,mobilephonesandcreditcards(ONS2016).

Inrelationtocriminaldamageandarsonhavealsoshowna7%increasebetweentheyearMarch2015andMarch2016.These increaseswerereported in40outof44policeforces inEnglandandWales.ThelatestfigurestoJune2015showa3%increasenationally inpolicerecordedtheftsofvehiclesinEnglandandWales,althoughit issuggestedthatthismaybemainlyduetothetheftofmotorcyclesandscooters(Morganetal2016).

23

Figure10:VictimisationinLondonper100Households

Source:BCS/CSEW1994-2015.OfficeforNationalStatistics

Ifwe look inmoredetailatcrime intheLondonBoroughof Islingtonweseeagainthat itpeaked in2004-06 and that the level in 2012/13 is similar to 2001/02 (see Table 3 below). A similar patternemergesinrelationtosexualoffences.ThemostsignificantdecreasesthathavetakenplaceaccordingtotheMetropolitanPolicefiguresareinrelationtoburglary,fraudandforgery,andcriminaldamage.

Over the last two years, however, there has been an increase in violence against the person inIslingtonfrom7,484 incidents in2014/15to7,560 in2015/16.Similarly, inrelationtosexualassaulttherehasbeenanincreasefrom382to522incidentsoverthesameperiod.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1994

1996

1998

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

VehicleCrimesTheiThreatsCriminalDamageBurglaryViolenceAjemptedBurglary

24

Table3:LondonMetDataforIslington2000-2016

Year Total Violence SexualOffences

Drugs Robbery(Personal)

Burglary Theftandhandling

FraudandForgery

CriminalDamage

2000-01 35,918 5,443 264 778 1,393 4,292 16,378 2,301 4,658

2001-02 37,611 5,667 347 615 1,659 4,567 17,747 1,611 4,632

2002-03 39,425 6,347 425 952 1,496 4,429 19,058 1,528 4,662

2003-04 40,816 6,607 423 1,101 1,274 3,957 20,560 1,393 4,891

2004-05 37,956 7,617 368 1,094 1,161 3,681 17,822 1,488 4,302

2005-06 37,650 7,002 346 1,361 1,307 3,683 18,069 961 3,917

2006-07 29,396 6,289 294 1,540 1,381 3,728 16,775 1,387 3,433

2007-08 30,228 5,364 273 2,763 1,119 3,345 13,583 464 2,916

2008-09 29,396 5,679 273 3,375 998 3,016 12,033 732 2,666

2009-10 28,396 5,848 266 2,333 970 2,852 12,736 810 2,508

2010-11 28,125 5,916 300 2,243 858 2,691 13,029 828 2,166

2011-12 27.026 5,073 284 1,649 1,143 2,830 12,844 697 2,053

2012-13 27,865 5,394 293 1,761 1,094 2,322 13,942 775 1,801

Summary

Analysingcrimetrendsnationallyandregionallyoverthepastthirtyyears isfraughtwithdifficulties.As has been suggested there are serious limitations in relation to the two most widely used datasources–theCrimeSurveyforEnglandandWalesandthepolicegenerateddata.Thesetwosourcesuse different categories, capture different aspects of crime and victimisation and only focus on arestricted range of incidents. Consequently, they present two partial and competing depictions ofcrimeandvictimisation thathave tobe treatedwithcaution.However, in theabsenceofanyotherdatasourcethatmightallowustoanalyselongtermtrendsincrimewearerequiredtodrawonthesetwo data sources while recognising that the picture that is constructed is at best approximate. Atcertainpointsbothdata sourcesproducesimilaraccountsof long-termtrendswhileatotherpointsthere is considerabledivergence. It is instructive,however, toexamine thesedatasetscriticallyandlookindetailat localandregionalvariations.It isalsonecessarytoexaminetheselocalandregionalvariations by crime type since the overall figures may show a general decrease in crime andvictimisation while certain categories of crime are increasing or remaining stable. It has beensuggested that the reduction in violent crime and sexual offences reported in the CSEW may beexaggerated,whileinLondonandIslingtonthelevelofviolentcrimein2012/13aresimilartothoseof2001/02.Most significantly,over the last twoyears thereare signs that crimeandvictimisationareeitherincreasingoratleastlevelingout,althoughitistooearlytosaythismayindicatetheendofthe‘crimedrop’whichhastakenplaceoverthelasttwodecades.

25

Part 2: Examining the Changing Context of Crime Victimisation in Islingtonbetween1986to2016

Introduction

TheaimofthissectionistoplacethevictimisationsurveyscarriedoutinIslingtonin1986and2016incontext.Overthisperiodconsiderablesocial,political,anddemographicchangeshavetakenplaceintheborough.Theroleandvalueofvictimisationsurveysisassessedinrelationtootheravailabledatasourcesthatarecommonlyusedtoanalysecrimetrends.

ThefirstIslingtoncrimesurveyincontext

ThefirstIslingtonCrimeSurveywasconductedinthemid1980sduringtheeraofThatcherismandtheconsequentdevelopmentofneo-liberalism(Jones,MacLeanandYoung1986).Themaintenetofthisdoctrine was a belief in the ability of themarketmechanism to create amore efficient system ofproductionanddistributionandtherewassignificantoppositiontotaxregulation,tradeunionactivityorstateprotection.ItwasMargaretThatcher’sclassicdoctrinefollowingHayekthat‘thereisnosuchthing as society’. In the post-social and post-Keynsian world the campaign against trade unionsculminatedintheMinersstrikeof1984.The‘BattleofOrgreave’betweenthepoliceandtheminersrepresented an increasing public order role for the police in which they came into conflict withdifferentsectionsofthecommunity.

AseriesofriotsinBrixton,BristolandMossSidewereattributedtopoliceracismandtheadoptionofmilitary style policing, together with a widening gap between the police – particularly theMetropolitanPoliceandthecommunitiestheyserve.Theseriotswerefollowedbyahigh-profileriotin Broadwater Farm in Tottenham, North London following the death of a Black woman, CynthiaJarrettduringapolicesearch.DuringtheriotPCKeithBlakelockwasalsokilled.

Theseeventscontributedtothegrowingpublicandpoliticaldebatesabouttheroleofthepoliceandthe Scarman Reportwhichwas commissioned following the Brixton riots in 1981. According to theScarman Report the riotswere a spontaneous outburst of built-up resentment, aswell as amix ofcomplexpolitical,socialandeconomicfactorstogetherwithproblemsofracialdisadvantageandinnercitydecline. Inparticular,Scarmanfoundevidenceofthedisproportionateand indiscriminateuseof‘stopandsearch’powersbythepoliceagainstBlackpeople(Cowell,JonesandYoung1982).

Stuart Hall famously described these and related developments as ‘Drifting into a Law and OrderSociety’.Heclaimedthat:

Thisdriftintoa‘LawandOrder’societyisnotemporaryaffair.Nodoubtitisinpartaresponsetothedeepeningeconomicrecession,aswellastothepoliticalpolarisation,socialtensionsandaccumulatingclassantagonismswhichinevitablyaccompanyit(Hall1980:267).

Hall characterises the 1980s as a period of authoritarian populism in which the tendency towardsauthoritarianismfromabove ismatchedbypopulistpunitiveness frombelow. In thiscontext raisingquestionsofrightsandcivillibertiesistantamounttobeing‘subversive’.

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It isagainst thisbackgroundof increasingunemployment,growing inequality,andsocialunrest thatthere appeared to be a relentless increase in crime. Between 1970 and 1980 the total number ofrecordedcrimeshadincreasedfromjustover1.55millionto2.68millioncases.Atthistimetherewasnorealprospectofcrimedecreasingorevenlevellingoff.Themainconcernwaswhatcouldbedonetostopcrimeincreasingevenmorerapidly.

One of the main functions of the British Crime Survey (BCS) which was introduced in 1982 wasformallytogainabetterunderstandingofthedistributionofvictimisationononehandandtoexplorethesocalled‘darkfigure’ofcrimeontheother.Itslessovertfunction,however,wastoreducepublicanxietiesaboutcrimebycalculatingtheriskofvictimisationonanationalratherthanlocalbasisandbyplacingalimitonthenumberofincidentsthatrespondentswereallowedtoreport.

TheFirst IslingtonCrimeSurvey(1986)wasdesignedtoserve inpartasacomplimenttotheBCSbyprovidingmoredetailedlocalinformation,butalsoasacritiqueofthepoliticalroleandsocialimpactoftheBCS.AsBrianMacLean,oneoftheauthorsoftheFirstIslingtonCrimeSurveyargued:

The British Crime Survey promised to provide more accurate measures of thefrequency and distribution of crime, instead it reproduced the very categories andconceptualbiasesofthedatacollectionsystem,whichitsoughttoimprove.Insteadofaddressingthepoliticalprocessesofdatacollectionandreportingthecrimesurveyonlyservedtomakethemmoreobscure.Whiletheresponsibilityforthecollectionofcrime survey data was placed in departments of justice and not the police, it stillvestedwithagentsofformalsocialcontrol.Thus,thecrimesurveydataarestilltheproducts of political processes and are still used politically in the law and orderdebate(MacLean1989:95).

TheBCSaswellasothernationalandinternationalsurveysischargedwithbeingoflimitedutilitytolocal agencies in addressing the crimeproblem in their areas. In short, the practical utility of thesenational and international surveys it was argued are severely circumscribed. In contrast, localvictimisation surveys like the First Islington Crime Survey promised to provide a ‘democraticinstrument’thatcouldidentifylocalconcernsandprioritiesaswellasprovidingdetailedinformationaboutthepublic’ssenseofsafety.

Thechangingsocial,politicalandeconomiccontext1986-2016

Overthepastthirtyyearswehavewitnessedarapidperiodofchangeinmanyaspectsofsocial life,includingtheadventoftheInternetandthewidespreaduseofmobilephonesaswellasaperplexingarrayofnewtechnologiesthathastransformedthesociallandscapeinthiscountry.

DespitetheelectionofanotherConservativeneo-liberalgovernmentin2010followingtheeconomiccrashin2008andgrowinginequalitythelevelofunemploymenthasdecreasedfromapeakof12%in1981/2 to a low of 5% in 2003/4. At the same time, there was a decline in manufacturing and asimultaneousexpansionof theservicesector. Inconjunctionwith thischangecameagrowth in thenumberofwomeninemploymentandaclosingofthepaygap.

Familystructurealsochanged.Thenumberofloneparentfamilieshasincreasedaswellastherateofdivorce in Britain. It would seem that the days of the Fordist ‘cornflake family’ are numbered.

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Significantincreasesinthenumberofloneparentfamilies,stepfamilies,cohabitingcouples,samesexcouples and children staying at home for longer has increased the variety of family formations.Parents,childrenandother familymembersmayexperienceanumberofdifferent familystructuresover time. Fertility rates in the UK have also decreased steadily since the 1980s with the averagenumberofchildrenperwomanbeing1.91in2007(SIRC2008).

Agreaterpercentageoftheincomeforbothmenandwomenhasbeenspentontheincreaseinhousepricesandrents,particularlyinLondon.Thesaleofcouncilhousesundertherighttobuyschemehada significant impact on the housing stock. The average house price in the UK has increased from£11,550in1976toover£184,000in2011.

There have also been significant changes in the composition of the population over the last threedecades. According to national census data the population of Islington increased by 30,000 (17%)between 2001 and 2011 to 206,000 residents. Almost 40% of this increase is accounted for by agrowth in the population both in the European Union but outside of the UK and Ireland (11,560people, 73% increase). The number of people born in non-EU countries increased by 10,000 (25%increase),whilethenumberofpeoplebornintheUKincreasedby9,600(8%increase).

Islington’spopulationin2011intermsofrelationshipstatuswasconsiderablydifferentcomparedwiththerestofLondonandEnglandingeneralwiththemajorityofresidentsrecordedassingle(60%vs.44%inLondonand35%inEngland).Moreover,Islington’spopulationbecamemoreethnicallydiversebetween2001and2011withlessthanhalf(48%)ofresidentsbeingWhiteBritishcomparedto57%in2001.

Therehavealsobeensignificantchangesinthedistributionoftenurewithan85%increaseinprivaterentinginIslingtonbetween2001and2011.Homeownershiphasincreasedby19%overthisperiod.Incontrast,socialrentingdecreasedby17%overthesameperiod.

Changingformsofcrimeandcontrol

Wehave alsowitnessed a series of urban regenerationprogrammes in Londonover thepast threedecades, designed to attract investors, middle class shoppers and visitors by creating newconsumptionspaces.Thus:

Ensuringthatplacesaresafeandareseentobesafehas takenagreatersalienceasthese flows of income are easily disrupted by changing perceptions of fear and thethreatofcrime.Atthesametime,newtechnologiesandpolicingstrategiesandtacticshavebeenadoptedinanumberofregenerationareaswhichseektoestablishcontrolovertheseurbanspaces.Policingspaceisincreasinglyaboutcontrollinghumanactionsthrough design, surveillance technologies and codes of conduct and enforcement(Raco2003:1869).

The ‘securitisation of space’ is particularly evident in the London Borough of Islington. The role ofpublicsectororganisationshasincreasinglybeensupplementedbyprivatesecuritypersonnel.Theaimistoprovidemoresecureandaestheticallyattractiveurbanspacesandtoremove‘socialpollutants’.Consequently, the regenerationand increasingcommercialisationofareas like Islingtonhaveeffectsontheuseandpolicingofspace.

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Undoubtedlythemostsignificantcriminologicalchangeoverthepasttwodecadesistheremarkabledecrease in recordedand reportedcrimeandvictimisation inEnglandandWales. Thedecreasehasbeenrelativelyconsistentandhastakenplaceacrossthecountryandacrossdifferentcrimetypes.Thenet result is that in the 1990s, according to the BCS, approximately 40% of adults had been in ahouseholdwheresomeonewasaffectedbycrime.By2014theproportionhasdroppedto20%.Onanindividual levelone in thirtypeopleaged16andoverwerevictimsofcrime in2013comparedwithone infive inthemid1990s.Thedecrease incrimefrom1995-96to2014 isreportedtobe77%forvehiclecrime,65%forburglary,63%forviolenceand61%forallacquisitivecrime.Incontrast,therehasbeenasignificantincreaseincybercrime,particularlyonlinefraud(seepartAofthisreport).

Whilethelevelof‘normalcrime’or‘streetcrime’hasbeendecreasingtherehasbeenagrowingfocuson anti-social behaviour. Activities such as street begging, youths hanging around, cycling onpavements,graffiti,andabandonedcars thatwereconsideredminor issues inthe1980shavetakenonagreatersignificance,particularlysincethepublicationofWilsonandKelling’s ‘BrokenWindows’articlein1982.Thisarticlearguedthatthepoliceshouldfocusondisorderratherthancrimecontrolandgettoughonarangeofincivilities.Thegrowingconcernsaboutanti-socialbehaviourresultedinthe passing of the Crime and Disorder Act 1998, which heralded the introduction of Anti-SocialBehaviourOrders (ASBOs)andgranted localauthoritiesmoreresponsibilities forreducingcrimeanddisorder. BetweenApril 1999 andDecember 2007 just under 15,000ASBOswere issued in EnglandandWales.TheuseofASBOspeakedin2004withapproximately4,500issuedinthatyear.SincethentheuseofASBOshassteadilydeclinedandhasbeenreplacedbythebythenewpowerscontainedintheAnti-SocialBehaviourAct(2014)whichincludetheInjunctiontoPreventNuisanceandAnnoyanceandtheCriminalBehaviourOrder.

More recently there has been a growing focus on cybercrime, particularly online fraud. Based onExperimentalStatisticsfromthenewfraudandmisusesquestionsthathavebeenaddedtotheCrimeSurveyforEnglandandWalesinOctober2015,adultsaged16andoverhavereportedthattheyhaveexperiencedanestimated5.6millionfraudandcomputermisuseincidentsinthetwelvemonthspriortointerview;3.6millionofthesewerefraudincidentsand2millionwerecomputermisuseincidents.Themostcommontypesoffraudreportedwere‘bankandcreditaccount’fraud(2.4millionincidents;65%of the total) followedby ‘non-investment fraud’ – such as fraud related to online shopping orfraudulent computer service calls. In addition, adults experienced an estimated 2million computermisuseincidents,aroundtwothirds(66%,1.3millionincidents)ofthesewerecomputervirusrelatedandaroundthirdwererelatedtounauthorisedaccesstopersonalinformation.

Thescaleofthesenewformsofonlinecrimehasdwarfedsomeofthetraditionaloffencesandcreatedanewsetofvictims,althoughsincemostof these ‘victims’areroutinelyreimbursedforany lossbybanksandotherfinancial institutions.Consequently,theirvictimstatus issignificantlydifferentfromthevictimsof‘normal’or‘streetcrime’.

Intum,thesocial,demographicandcriminologicallandscapehaschangedoverthepastthreedecadessuchthatnotonlyisthelevelandnatureofcrimeandvictimisationchangingbutalsothecontextinwhichthesechangeshavetakenplaceissubjecttoradicaltransformation.Below,weexplorespecificchangesinthedemographiccompositionofIslington.

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ThechangingdemographicsofIslingtonfrom1981to2011

Atthetimeofthefirstsurvey in1986thepopulationof Islingtonwasapproximately167,000,whichrose to approximately 206,000 by 2016. Table 4 below compares the composition of the surveypopulation(un-weighted)oftheFirstandThirdIslingtonCrimeSurveyswiththeactualpopulationoftheboroughat the timeaccording tocensusdata.Overall, the surveypopulation in2016wasolderandlessethnicallydiversethantheactualpopulationoftheboroughofIslington.In1986the‘White’population was underrepresented in the survey while the BME population was deliberatelyoversampled.

Table4:ComparisonbetweenthesurveyrespondentsandIslingtonpopulation

ICS1986 Census1981 ICS2015 Census2011

16-24 31% 20% 12% 16%

25-44 41% 35% 38% 50%

45plus 28% 45% 50% 33%

Men 46% 48% 42% 50%

Women 54% 52% 58% 50%

White 71% 86% 68% 60%

BME 29% 14% 32% 40%

Figure 11 belowdepicts the differences between the population of Islington in 1981 and 2011 (themostrecentcensusdataatthetime).Ascanbeseen,thegenderbalanceofthepopulationofIslingtonremains fairly equal but there have been significant changes in the composition of the borough inrelationtoageandethnicity.

Therehasalsobeenagrowth inthenumberofpeopleaged25-44.Thepopulation increase,both interms of the overall population and the increase in the number of young people aswell as greaterethnicdiversity,appearstobeforthemostpartafunctionofchangingpatternsofimmigrationfromboth EUandnon-EU countries. Censusdata shows that therehas been a significant increase in thenumberofpeoplemigratingfromEUcountries(apartfromtheUKandIreland)since2011.

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Figure11:ComparisonoftheIslingtonpopulationin1981and2011byage,gender,andethnicity

Ascanbeseenabove,in1986,14%ofresidentswereclassifiedasBME,whereasthisfigurehasnowincreasedto40%,signifyingincreaseddiversitywithinthepopulationandmigrationintothearea.

Thepercentageofmigrantsaged16-44has increasedby18%(69%to87%).This increasecorrelateswithanincreaseintheprivaterentedsector(seeFigure12below).Relatedly,therehasbeenarecentdecreaseintheolderpopulationandtherearenowfewerelderlypeopleintheIslingtonareathanin1981(9%comparedwith17%).

GentrificationanddeprivationinIslingtonfrom1981to2011

In1986,IslingtonwastheseventhpoorestboroughinEnglandanditisnowtwenty-sixth.However,intermsof incomedeprivationIslingtonranksfifthnationally. Islingtonischaracterizedbyamixtureofdeprivationandaffluencewithconsiderablevariation in incomeamongst itsresidents.Gentrificationwasunderwayatthetimeofthefirstsurveyandhassteadilyincreased.Therehasalsobeenariseincommercialandleisureestablishments.

Overcrowdingandthedemandforcouncilhousingwereissuesinthe1980sandcontinuetobeso.Infact,IslingtonisnowthemostdenselypopulatedboroughinEnglandandWales,morethantwicetheaverageforLondon.OneofthecurrentobjectivesoftheCouncilistoprovideaffordablehousingintheborough.Only28%ofhouseholdersowntheirhome,comparedwiththenationalaverageof63%.Atpresent,thedemandforhousingofalltypesfaroutstripssupply.

The percentage of unemployed people has decreased from 13% to 5%. In real terms, the numbershavedecreasedfrom10,803to8,960. Inaddition,currentlythereare22,000peoplewhoidentifyasdisabled or have long-termhealth issues.Many of these people are economically inactive. As such,therecontinuestobeastrongdemandonsocialservices.

20%

35%

45%48%

52%

86%

14%16%

50%

33%

50% 50%

60%

40%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

16-24 25-44 45plus Men Women White BME

Census1981 Census2011

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Figure 12: Comparison between Islington residents in 1981 and 2011 by tenure and economicactivity

Overall, the percentage of people in social housing and housing association rented properties hasdecreasedbyover20%(asapercentageofthetotalhousingpopulation).However,thereisstillhighdemandforhousing,reflectingan increase inthepopulationasawhole. Intermsofnumbers,therewere41,098socialhousingrenters(35,741localauthority)in1981andnowthereare39,369(25,041local authority). Therefore, themajor change is in relation to owner-occupiers and private renters(13%and10%respectively).

Table5:Changesintenurebetween1981and2011bynumberofhouseholds

1981 2011

LocalAuthority 35,741 25,014

HousingAssoc. 5,357 14,328

TotalLAandHA 41,098 39,342

Owneroccupiers 10,900 27,771

Privaterental 11,157 25,217

Thus,despiteadramaticimprovementinoverallrankingrelatingtopovertyanddespitegentrification,pockets of deprivation remain. Further, rapidly increasing house prices mean that it is becomingincreasinglydifficultforyoungpeopleorthoseonlowincomestobecomehomeownersinthearea.

17%

64%

17%

65%

13%

22%

30%

42%

27%

71%

5%

24%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Owneroccupied

PublicRental PrivateRental Economicallyaclve

Unemployed Other

Census1981 Census2011

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Part3:AComparisonofPublicAttitudesandFearofCrimebetween1986and2016

Neighbourhoodsatisfaction

Neighbourhoodsatisfactionhassignificantlyimprovedoverthelast30years.

Table6:Neighbourhoodsatisfactionbygender

ICS1986 ICS2016

Male Female Male Female

Low 21% 28% 1% 0.4%

Medium 78% 70% 43% 53%

High 1% 2% 56% 46%

In 1986, approximately a quarter of residents had low satisfaction with their neighbourhood, withwomenmorelikelytofeeldissatisfied.Highsatisfactionwiththeneighbourhoodwasveryrareatonly1.5% of respondents. This low satisfaction is reflected in high levels of concern relating to specificissues(seebelow).

In2016,however,theoverwhelmingmajorityofrespondentssaidthattheywereextremelysatisfied.Thiswasthecaseforbothmenandwomen.Thisrepresentsasignificantchangesince1986.Neighbourhoodconcerns

Table7belowoutlinesthetopfiveneighbourhoodconcernsin1986comparedwith2016.Ascanbeseen,crimefeaturesprominentlyinbothsurveysbutislowerdownonthelistofmajorconcernsforresidents in 2016 compared with 1986. On the other hand, crime is seen as the second highestproblemin2016whenbothmajorandminorconcernsaretakenintoaccount.Interestingly, the top five concerns in 2016 and 1986 are very similar, including housing,unemployment,notenoughareasforchildrentoplay(2016)orthingsforyoungpeopletodo(1986).Theonlyvariationisthatin1986,vandalismwasseenasaproblem,whereasin2016heavylorrynoiseisidentifiedasmoreofanissue.

Overall,residentsin2016appeartobefarlessconcernedwithspecificissuesintheirneighbourhoodandthenatureoftheseconcernshaschanged.Housingissues(thecostsofhousing)arenowamajorconcerninsteadofunemployment.Further,crimeisloweronthelistofprioritiesandtheremovalofvandalismfromthetopfiveissuesmeansthatcrimeasathemehassignificantlydecreased.

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Table7:Topfiveneighbourhoodconcernsin1986and2016

Topfive'big/major'problem1986 Top5'big/major'problem2016

1.Unemployment 65% 1.Housing 50%

2.Notenoughthingsforyoungpeopletodo 38% 2.Unemployment 21%

3.Crime 37% 3.Notenoughplacesforchildrentoplay 18%

4.Housing 36% 4.Heavylorrynoise 14%

5.Vandalism 34% 5.Crime 13%

Topfive'totalproblem'1986 Top5'totalproblem'2016

1.Unemployment 87% 1.Housing 50%

2.Crime 71% 2.Crime 54%

3.Vandalism 68% 3.Unemployment 50%

4.NotEnoughForYoungPeopleToDo 66% 4.NotEnoughPlacesforChildrentoPlay 40%

5.Housing 61% 5.HeavyLorryNoise 39%

Figure13belowidentifiesarangeofissuesthatwereaproblemforsomeresidentsinboth1986and2016. As discussed previously, therewere differences between the forms of categorisation used inboth surveys.Mostnotably, ‘poorhousing’ in1986 is replacedby ‘housing costs’ in2016and ‘poorschools’ in 1986 is ‘school availability’ in 2016. Overall, in 2016 residents are less likely to seeneighbourhoodissuesasamajorproblemandthemoststrikingvariationsbyresidentcharacteristicswere thatWhite Otherwere less concerned overall, whereas BME residentsweremore concernedabout race relations and unfriendliness. In terms of gender, therewas very little variation (womenwereslightlymoreconcernedingeneralbutbyasmallmargin).Therefore,themarkeddifferencesintermsofethnicityandgenderthatwerepresentinthefirstsurveyarelessevidentin2016.Further,itappearsthatolderresidentsnowfeelcomparativelymoreconcernedthanpreviously.

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Figure13:Neighbourhoodissuesseenasamajororminorproblem

Concernsrelatingtocrime

Figure14belowpresentsrespondentsviewsoncrimein1986and2016.Ascanbeseen,arelativelysimilarproportionagree that crime isa ‘minor’or ‘bitofa’problem.However, there isa significantdifference inhowmanypeoplebelieve that crime is amajor concern in the twoperiodsdecreasingfrom37%in1986toonly13%2016.

Figure14:Crimeasamajororminorproblem

65%

36%

27%

37%

15%

11%

12%

8%

34%

6%

32%

38%

0%

21%

50%

14%

13%

9%

3%

6%

3%

6%

6%

18%

0%

8%

22%

25%

19%

34%

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16%

23%

17%

34%

13%

28%

28%

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29%

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41%

22%

14%

19%

17%

29%

25%

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0%

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Unemployment

Housing

Heavylorrynoise

Crime

Schools

PoorPublicTransport

PoorStreetLighlng

RaceRelalons

Vandalism

GeneralUnfriendliness

NotEnoughPlacesforChildrentoPlay

NotEnoughThingsForYoungPeopletoDo

StreetGangs

1986Big/MajorProblem 2016Big/MajorProblem 1986Bitofa/MinorProblem 2016Bitofa/MinorProblem

37%

13%

34%

41%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1986 2016

Bitofa/MinorProblem

Big/MajorProblem

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There were significant differences betweenmen and women’s views on crime in 1986 with youngwomenbeingmuchmorelikelytoseecrimeasabigproblemandwomengenerallybeingmorelikelytoreportlowsatisfactionwiththeirneighbourhood.In1986,58%ofvictimsofviolencewerefemale.Women generally had a greater likelihood of victimisation andwere subject to a greater degree ofverbalharassmentandthreatsonthestreet.

Relatedly,inthe1986survey,aninterestingpatternemergedinrelationtoage,ethnicityandgender.ThesurveyfoundthatyoungBlackwomenweremore likelytoseecrimeasabigproblem,whereasolderAsianwomenwere least likely. In general,Asian respondents saw crimeas lessof a problem,whereas Black and White respondents had fairly similar responses. In 2016, there was very littlevariation by age, ethnicity and gender. Themost striking distinctionwas between young Black andyoung Asian males, with only 9% of Black men aged 25-44 reporting crime as a major concern asopposedto39%ofAsianmeninthesameagegroup.Thisisareversalofthesituationin1986whenAsianswerelesslikelytoseecrimeasaproblem.

Viewsonchanginglevelsofcrime

Both surveys exploredwhether respondents believed that crimehad increased, stayed the sameordecreasedwithinthelast5years.Therehasbeenasignificantshiftovertime.In1986,themajorityofresidents unsurprisingly believed that crime was an increasing problem. Some 70% said crime andotherproblemshadbecomemorecommoninthearea,27%suggestedthatithadremainedthesame,and 3% that itwas less common. In 2016, only 14% of respondents believed crimewas increasing.Figure15belowidentifiesthetypesofcrimerespondentsbelievedtobeincreasinginbothsurveys.Ascan be seen, burglary and robbery/muggingwere themost likely to be seen as having increased in1986. In2016, itwas the ‘newcrimes’ suchcybercrime thatwere seen tohave increased themost.Onlinecrimeandfraudarenowstandoutissuesinrelationtocrime,whereassomeoftheissuesthatwereperceivedtobeincreasingin1986arelessofaconcerntoresidentsinthepresentperiod.

Figure15:Percentageofrespondentswhobelievespecifictypesofcrimehaveincreased

68%

53%48%

61%

44%

31%

12% 9% 7%13% 14%

36% 40%

13%23%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

1986 2016

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Table8belowdepictsthepercentageofrespondentswhobelievedcrimehadincreasedinthelastfiveyearsinbothsurveys.Theseresponsesappeartoreflectageneralawarenessofcrimetrends.

Table8:Beliefaboutcrimeincreasebyage,gender,andethnicity

ICS1986 ICS2016

Age 16-24 25-44 45+ 16-24 25-44 45+

70% 76% 66% 25% 8% 17%

Gender Men Women Men Women

69% 71% 11% 17%

Ethnicity White Black Asian White Black Asian

71% 63% 58% 11% 22% 22%

In 1986, younger residents, particularly those between the ages of 25 and 44 were most likely tobelievecrimehadincreased,whereasin2016thisagegroupwasleastlikelytoseecrimeasincreasing.Thusthereappearstobeageneralshiftovertimeinrelationtocrimeconcernsfromyoungertoolderresidents. Inaddition, thegapbetweenmenandwomenhaswidened,althoughsmallernumbersofboth sexes believe that crime is increasing. Further, there has been a change in terms of ethnicity.Although the proportion of BME respondents expressing the view that crime is increasing haddecreasedsignificantlyfrom63%to22%overtheperiodBMErespondentswerestilltwiceaslikelyasWhiterespondentstobelievethatcrimewasincreasing.

It is indicative that in2016 that thepopulations thataremorevulnerable tovictimisation -women,older residents, and BME respondents – are understandably more likely to believe that crime isincreasing.Inbothsurveys,thefollowingvariableswerefoundtobeinter-related

• Fearofcrime• Beliefinhigherlikelihoodofvictimisation• Dissatisfactionwithneighbourhood• Beliefthatcrimehadincreased

Changingprioritiesandconceptionsofcrimebetween1986and2016

In1986,residentswereaskedwhattypesofcrimetheyconsideredshouldbepolicepriorities.Violentcrimeandharddrugsweregiventhehighestprioritybyresidents.Incontrast,theseoffenceswerelessevidentinthe2016survey.

The police in 1986were seen to spend toomuch timeon prostitution, although at the timeof thesurveystreetprostitutionwas fairlycommon insomepartsof theborough (seeMatthews1986). In2016,thisissuereceivedlittleattentionandwasonlycitedasamajorconcerninrelationtoanti-socialbehaviourby5%ofrespondents.Assuch,in1986therewasadisparitybetweenthepublic’spriorities

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andthoseofthepoliceandwhattheywerefocussingon.Thisissymptomaticofageneraldistrustofthepoliceatthetime(discussedfurtherbelow).

In2016,anti-socialbehaviourwasseentobeaproblemby27%ofrespondents,whereasin1986therewassomepublicconcernabout‘rowdyismonthestreets’,althoughitwasrelativelylowonthelistofprioritiesinthe1980s.

Perceptionsofthelikelihoodofvictimisation

Perceptions of the likelihood of victimisation have decreased dramatically since 1986 when almost90% of residents felt vulnerable to a moderate or high extent. In 2016 a picture emerges of acommunitythatalthoughcontinuingtohaveconcernsaboutcrimeandvictimisationhasingeneralamuchgreatersenseofsafetythanthirtyyearsago.

Table9:Perceivedlikelihoodofvictimisation

ICS1986 High Moderate High ormoderate

ICS2016 Very Fairly Fairly orvery

Men 16% 71% 87% Men 2% 11% 13%

Women 18% 67% 85% Women 2% 19% 21%

White 16% 70% 86% White 1% 15% 16%

Black 26% 61% 87% Black 2% 14% 16%

Asian 26% 64% 90% Asian 2% 23% 25%

Owned 15% 76% 91% Owned 1% 21% 22%

Publicrental 18% 67% 85% Publicrental 2% 14% 16%

Privaterental 15% 71% 86% Privaterental 3% 11% 14%

16-24 21% 69% 90% 16-24 1% 20% 21%

25-44 19% 70% 89% 25-44 3% 13% 16%

45plus 14% 69% 83% 45plus 1% 16% 17%

Themoststrikingpatternthatemergedin1986wasthattheover45sfeltthattheywerelesslikelytobevictimised,whileyoungpeopleweremore likelytofeel thattheyhadahighriskofvictimisation.Theseperceptionsinbothcaseswerefairlyrealistic.

Although therewas a great deal of variation in the perceived likelihood of victimisation in 1986 bygender, therewere some significant differences betweenmale and female respondents in terms oftheirconcernsaboutcrime.Womenreportedfarmorefearcomparedwithmeninrelationtofeeling

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veryor fairlyunsafeatnight (73%comparedwithonly27%ofmen).Overall,60%ofwomenstatedthattheyfeltthatgoingoutafterdarkposedarisk.

Incontrast,themajorityofrespondentsin2016feltthatitwasfairlyorveryunlikelythattheywillbevictimisedinthenext12monthsandonly2%feltthatitwasverylikely.Previousvictims,women,andhomeowners perceived themselves as more likely to be victimised, whereas White respondentsperceivedthemselvesaslesslikely.

Fearofcrime

The1986 survey explored specific fears relating to crime and found that nearly half ofwomen fearbeing rapedor being sexuallymolested,while 56%ofmenandwomen fear burglary, and46% fearstreetrobbery.Asubstantialnumberofresidentshadconcernsrelatingtocrimessuchasvandalism,streetharassment,andstrangerattacks.Thesurveyfoundthatfearwasactuallycloselylinkedtotheactual experiences of victimisation. For example, one third of respondents knew someonewhohadbeenmugged in the last year and this correlatedwith thebelief that street robberyhad increased.Otherexamples include the fact that youngerwomenweremore likely tobe victimsof assault andpersonaltheftandalsoexpressedagreater levelof fear.Oldermenweremorefearful inrelationtostreetfights/disturbanceswhichisprobablyafunctionoftheirlevelofpersonalvulnerability.

Further in1986,BME residentsweremore likely tohavehigh fearof crime,aswerepublic renters,people who were not in the highest income bracket, 16-24 year olds, and people aged 45 plus.Generally,therefore,thebetteroff insocietythatrespondentsweretheless likelytheyweretofearcrime.

The2016surveydidnotexplore thesespecific fears.However,achange in the levelsof fearcanbedeterminedthroughotherresponses.Bothsurveysmeasuredfeelingworried(1986)orunsafe(2016)atnight.The1986surveyaskedayes/noquestion-whetherpeople‘feelworriedaboutgoingoutonyourowninthisareaafterdark(yes/no)’whereasthe2016surveyasked‘howsafedoyoufeelwalkingaloneinthisareaafterdark(verysafe,fairlysafe,abitunsafe,veryunsafe).AscanbeseeninFigure16below,thesituationwithregardtofearatnighthassignificantlyimproved.Overall,onlyafifthofrespondents reported feeling unsafe walking alone at night compared to half of people who feltworried about going out on their own in the area after dark in 1986. Further, 98% of respondentsreportedthattheyfeelsafeduringtheday.

39

Figure16:Percentageofmenandwomenwhofeelpersonallyatriskatnight

Tables10and11belowshowthepercentageofrespondentswhoexpressedfeelingworried(1986)orvery/fairlyunsafe(2016)byageandgenderandbyethnicity.

Table10:Feelingworried/unsafebyageandgender

ICS1986 ICS2016

Men Women Men Women

16-24 15% 71% 17% 40%

25-44 16% 70% 7% 23%

45+ 39% 76% 13% 25%

Table11:Feelingworried/unsafebyethnicityandgender

ICS1986 ICS2016

Men Women Men Women

White 27% 73% 8% 25%

Black 24% 69% 13% 26%

Asian 33% 67% 29% 41%

Thesignificantchangethathastakenplacebetween1986and2016inrelationtogenderisadecreasein the number ofwomen feeling unsafe at night in Islington, particularly Blackwomen,while Asianwomenontheotherhandcontinuetoexperiencerelativelyhighlevelsoffear.

51%

27%

73%

19%

11%

26%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Total Men Women

1986

2016

40

Despiteimprovementsinfeelingsofsafety,itisclearthatwomencontinuetofeellesssafethanmen.AccordingtotheFairnessCommissionReport(2012)womeninIslingtonfeellesssafethanmenafterdarkandtheover60sfeel lesssafethanotheragegroups,whichmatchesresidentresponses inthe2016survey.TherewasnoidentifiabledifferenceintheperceptionsofWhiteandBMEresidentsintheFairnessCommissionReport.However,inthe2016surveyAsianandMixedRaceresidentsweremorelikelytoreportfeelingunsafe(37%/35%comparedto17%ofWhiteand20%ofBlackrespondents).

Avoidancebehaviours

Asfearhasreduced,sohaveavoidancebehaviours.Thesesafetystrategieshavehalvedforbothmenandwomenbetween1986andthepresent.In1986,women’shigherlevelsoffearresultedin84%ofwomen using some sort of avoidance behaviour (such as avoiding going out after dark, using carsinstead of walking etc.) as opposed to only 39% of men. The 2016 survey found that this haddecreasedto20%and9%respectively.

Figure17:Percentageofmenandwomenavoidingcertainstreetsorareas

Securitymeasures

In2016,62%ofrespondentshadinstalledsecuritymeasuresintheirhomecomparedto53%in1986.Inthe1980shomeownersweremorelikelytoinvestintheirhomesandcouncilpropertieshadhighersafetystandardsthanprivaterentalproperties.However,itappearsthatoverthepastthirtyyearsthesecuritisationofpropertieshasbecomethenorm.

During the 1980s there was a growing pressure for residents to sign up to neighbourhood watchschemes which it was widely believed would increase their safety. However, in the recent crimesurvey only 52 respondents stated that they were members of neighbourhood watch and relatedschemes.

9%

20%17%

36%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Men Women

2016

1986

41

Witnessingandreportingcrimes

In1986,unreportedcrimewashigh,withoverallonly50%of incidentsbeing reported to thepoliceeither by the victimor someone else. The least likely to be reportedwere personal theft and theftfromadwelling,whereasburglary, robbery,and theftofamotorvehiclewere themost likely tobereported.Themostcommonreasonsfornotreportingwerethatvictimsfeltthat‘itwoulddonogood’orthat‘itwouldbetoomuchtrouble’.

Thegroupswhowerelesslikelytoreportin1986wereBME,particularlyyoungpeople.Thisappearstobeaconsequenceofthepoorrelationbetweenthepoliceandethnicminoritygroupsatthetime.By2016, thedifference in reporting ratesbetweendifferentethnicgroupshas levelledoutand it iscurrentlytheeconomicallyinactivewhoareleastlikelytoreport.

Takenasanoverall figure, the reportingof crime in1986was significantly lower than in2016 (31%comparedwith49%).Therehasbeenanincreaseinthereportinglevelsforalloffencesexceptvehiclecrime which has remained at roughly the same level as 1986. The most noticeable increase inreportinghasbeeninrelationtosexualassaultandharassmentaswellasburglary.Thisisprobablyafunctionofincreasedconfidenceinthepoliceandimprovedpolice-publicrelations.

Table12:Reportingofincidentstothepolice

ICS1-1986 ICS3–2016OffenceType %Reported %ReportedAlloffencetypes 31 49Propertyoffences Burglary 41 69PersonalTheft 51 52CriminalDamage 10 38Vehiclecrime 45 44Crimesagainsttheperson Violence 41 54Sexualassault&Harassment 9 50HateCrime 37 40

Satisfactionwiththepolice

In1986,satisfactionwiththepolicewasgenerally low.Table13belowindicatesresidents’degreeofsatisfactionwiththepolicehandlingoftheircase:

Table13:Satisfactionwithpolicehandlingofthecasebycrimetype

1986% 2016%

Mugging/streetrobbery 38 X

Burglary 34 60

Violenceagainsttheperson X 56

Vandalism/criminaldamage 34 58

Sexualassaultsonwomen 43 77

42

Ascanbeseenthelevelsofsatisfactionforcomparableoffencesweremuchlowerin1986thantheywerein2016.In1986BMEandolderresidents(over45)werethemostcriticalofpoliceperformance.Inrelationtosexualassaultyoungwomenexpressedarelativelylowlevelofsatisfactionin1986withthe police’s ability to deal effectively with these matters. Amongst Asian women the level ofsatisfactionwiththepolicewasparticularlylow.

As noted above therewas considerable disparity between priorities of the public and the police in1986.Assuch,thepolicewerenotseenasbeingveryeffectiveinrelationtooffencessuchassexualviolence,robbery,theuseofharddrugs,andburglary.Overathird(36%)ofrespondentsalsofeltthatthepolicedidnothaveagoodunderstandingoftheproblemsinthearea.Otherindicatorsofalackofconfidenceinthepoliceincludeastrongbeliefinpolicemalpractice.

Taken as an average from across selected categories (mugging, burglary, vandalism, sexual assault,womenbeingmolestedorpestered), thegeneral levelofsatisfaction in1986canbecomparedwiththatof2016.

Figure18:Satisfactionwithpoliceconduct1986and2016

In2016,18%ofrespondentshadcontactwiththepoliceandtheirsatisfactionwashighat86%.Therewas very little variationby social groupand the criticisms thatwerepresent in 1986, particularly inrelationtoethnicityandviolenceagainstwomen,nolongerappeartobeamajorconcern.

Recent2015/6datareleasedbytheMetropolitanPolicelendssupporttotheobservationthatpolice-public relationsarecurrently farbetter than in1986 (Mopac2015).According to this report69%ofresidentsinIslingtonstatedthatthepolicedoanexcellentorgoodjob(comparedwith67%London-wide),witha further27%statingthatthepolicedoa ‘fair’ job.Only5%believethatthepolicedoapoororverypoorjob.Thereisalsohighconfidenceinthepolice,with81%ofresidentsstatingthatthepolicearedealingwithmattersthataremostimportanttothecommunity.

Stopandsearch

Inthe1980sstopandsearchwasawidelyusedandhighlycontestedpolicingstrategy.Some12%ofrespondentsintheFirstIslingtonCrimeSurveyreportedthattheyhadbeenstoppedandsearchedand41%oftheseweredissatisfiedwiththeconductof thepolice.The incidentsmainlyyieldedcannabisarrests, whichwas of low priority to Islington residents in 1986. Themain concern about stop and

43%

86%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

1986

2016

43

searchat that timewas that itwasseentobeastrategydirectedmainly towardsyoungmaleBlackresidents,whichhadtheeffectofalienatingthissectionofthecommunity.MenweretwiceaslikelytobestoppedaswomenandBlackmenwerefarmorelikelytobestoppedthanotherethnicgroups.

In the2016 surveyonly10of the respondentshadbeen stoppedand searchedofwhom fourwerefromBMEgroups.Although in thequalitative responses, therewas some concern relating topoliceprofiling,ingeneralitseemsthatstopandsearchisfarlessofawidelyusedstrategyintheboroughthanin1986

Publicperceptionsofpoliceperformanceandattitudes

Another area of contrast between the two surveys is in relation to residents’ belief that the policetreatpeoplefairlyandequally.

Figure19:Percentageofrespondentswhobelievethatthepolicetreatpeoplefairlyandequally

In1986,whenaskedifthepolicetreateveryonefairlyandequally,twothirdsofrespondentsagreed(68%). However, belief in police fairness varied significantly amongst different groups. Asian andWhite respondents were most likely to believe police were fair (70/71%) but only 39% of thosecategorisedasBlackfeltthatthepolicetreatedpeopleequallyandfairly.Inboth1986and2016thereare some similarities in relation to those groups who are most or least likely to believe in policefairnesswithBlackandyoungerresidentsbeingleastlikely.

Table14:Percentageofpeoplewhobelievethepolicepeoplefairlyandequally

1986 2016

Male 68% 93%

Female 67% 91%

White 71% 93%

68%

92%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

1986

2016

44

Black 39% 83%

Asian 70% 92%

16-24 46% 91%

25-44 53% 93%

45+ 86% 92%

Employed 61% 91%

Unemployed 55% 87%

The lower levelsof trust inthepolicethatwerereported inthe1986surveyhavebecomeacentralpolicy concern. Trust and confidence in thepolicehavebecome increasingly important in academicandpolicydebatesoverthepast30yearsandhavebeenintroducedasakeyperformanceindicatorforthepolicesince2009(Hohletal.2010).

Inconjunctionwiththedebatesabouthowtoimprovepublicconfidenceinthepolicetherehasbeena focus on police-public contact. Findings routinely demonstrate that confidence and trust in thepoliceisloweramongstindividualswhohavehadcontactwiththepolice(Bradfordetal.2009).Thesefindingsareechoed in the2016 survey.Whilstperceptionsofpolice fairnesswere relativelyhigh inbothcontactandnon-contactgroups,perceptionsoffairnesswerelowerinthecontactgroup.Almostall(95%)residentswhohadnothadanycontactwiththepoliceinthepreceding12monthsperceivedthepoliceasfair,whereasonly80%ofthosewhohadcontactwiththepolicethoughtso.

Residentswerealsoaskedtorate theirexperienceofpolicecontact in2016.Overhalf (56%)statedtheywere very satisfied and just under a third (30%) fairly satisfied (86% satisfied in total). Of theremaining14%,10%reportedtheywerefairlydissatisfiedand4%verydissatisfied.

Co-operationwiththepolice

In1986,althoughmostrespondentsstatedtheywouldbewillingtoreportanaccidentorstealingofawallet (96%and93%respectively),only73%saidtheywouldreportan incidentofcriminaldamage.Willingnesstoco-operatereducedsignificantlywhenitcametobeingawitnessorgivingevidenceincourt.Thereasonsgivenforrefusingtoco-operatewerethatindividualsfearedreprisalsorthattheyhad a lack of trust in the police. Asians, young Black males, and women tended to be the leastcooperative. In contrast, in 2016, 96% of respondents stated that they would report a ‘seriousincident’tothepolice.

Overall,thegroupleastlikelytoreportin2016wereyoungwomenaged16-24,withlittlevariationbyethnicity, whereas in 1986 it was Asianwomen in all age groups. Both the 1986 and 2016 surveysfound a slight gender difference in relation to likelihood of reporting. Similarly, both surveys foundthatyoungerresidentswerelesslikelytoreport.

45

Interestingly,residentswhocouldberegardedasbeingvulnerableintermsofreprisalswerelesslikelytostatetheywouldreport–womenandtheeconomically inactive.However,comparingthosewhohadcontactwiththepolicewithresidentswhohadnot,thecontactgroupweremorelikelytostatetheywouldreportaseriouscrimetheyhadwitnessed.Itwouldappeartherefore,thatwhilstpolice-public contact may be associated with lower perceptions of police fairness, there is no significantnegativeimpactonthepublic’swillingnesstoreport.

.

46

Part4:AComparisonbetween1986and2016SurveysbyCrimeType

Overview

AsmightbeexpectedratesofvictimisationinIslingtoninthe1980swereconsiderablyhigherthanthenationalfiguresreportedbytheBCS.Therateofburglarywasfoundtobe9%anditwasyoungandthosecategorisedasBlackwhoexperiencedthehighestnumberofincidents.Asignificantproportionofthosereportingaburglaryhadbeenburgledpreviously.Theexperienceofbeingburgledwasfoundto have a fairly direct effect on residents’ satisfaction with their neighbourhood. The incidence ofburglarywasfoundtobeslightlyhigherforthoselivinginprivaterentalaccommodation.

Intermsofvandalism/criminaldamageanestimated11%ofhouseholdswereaffected.LikeburglarycriminaldamagetendedtobedirectedatyoungeragegroupsandBlackresidents,whoselikelihoodofbeingavictimofthisoffencewasalmost50%higherthanotherethnicgroups.Also, itwasthehighearnersandowneroccupierswhoreportedthehighestnumberofincidents.

Theft from the person includes ‘mugging’ and robbery. However, because this crime ismost oftencarriedoutonthestreetnotallvictimsareresidentinIslington.AswithburglaryandcriminaldamagetheyoungandBlackresidentswerefoundtobemorelikelytobevictimsofthisoffence.Infact,Blackresidentsweretwiceas likelyastheirWhiteorAsiancounterpartstobeavictimoftheft.Theftwasfoundtobemoreprevalentamongsthigherearnersandthoselivinginprivaterentals.

For violenceagainst theperson the1986 survey found that22%of casesweredomesticabuseandthat domestic abusewas the least likely offence to be reported to the police. Violence against thepersoningeneralwasfoundtobedisproportionatelydirectedtothe16-24agegroupandmembersoftheBlackpopulation.Ratesofassaultwerefoundtobehighestamongstmiddle incomegroupsandthoselivinginpublicrental.

Inrelationtosexualassaultthesurveyestimatedthattherewereabout1200cases inIslingtonoverthe previous year. These figures include rapes which accounted for 23% of the sexual assaultsreported. These assaults were most commonly directed at young White women aged 16-24,particularlythoselivinginprivaterental.

Inshort,TheFirstIslingtonCrimeSurveyshowedthesubstantialimpactofcrimeandvictimisationonthe livesof people in theborough.A full thirdof householdswere found tohavebeen touchedbyseriouscrime(i.e.burglaryrobberyorsexualassault)overatwelve-monthperiod.Crimewasratedbyresidentsasamajorproblem,onlysecondtounemployment.Accordingtooneoftheauthorsofthesurvey:

Crimeshapedpeople’slivestoaremarkabledegree.Aquarterofrespondentsalwaysavoidedgoingoutafterdark,specificallybecauseoffearofcrimeand28percentfeltunsafeintheirownhomes.Therewasavirtualcurfewofasubstantialsectionofthefemalepopulation–withoverhalfofwomenoftenoralwaysnotgoingoutafterdarkbecauseoffearofcrime.Suchasurveyputsfearofcrimeinperspective.Itisscarcelyodd for example that 46 per cent of people should admit worrying ‘a lot’ aboutmugginggiventhatover40percentofthepopulationactuallyknowsomeonewho

47

had been mugged in the last twelve months. Nor is it unrealistic to worry aboutburglary when its incidence runs at five times the national average and on someestatesfouroutoffivehouseshadbeenburgledinthelastyear.(Young1988:169-170).

Thesurveyalsofoundsignificantdifferencesintheexperienceofcrimeamongstdifferentsubgroups.For example, it was found that those over 45 years old have a different experience of crime fromyoungerpeople.Youngwhitefemales,forexample,werefoundtobetwentytimesmorelikelytobeassaulted than those over 45. There were also found to be profound differences between womenfromdifferentethnicminoritygroupswithAsianyoungwomenexperiencing relatively low levelsofsexualassaultcomparedwiththeirWhiteorAfricanCaribbeancounterparts.

Figure20:Ratesofvictimizationper10,000households1986

Source:MacLean1989

Acomparisonofthepersonalandhouseholdcharacteristicsofthosereportingoneormoreformsofvictimisationwith those reporting none revealed few significant differences.While Figure 21 showssomevariationbyage,withahigherproportionofyoungpeopleaged16-24reportingoneormoreincidents, the difference is not statistically significant. In relation to ethnicity the percentage baseddifferencesbetweenthethreegroupsaresmall,buthere,thehigherproportionofthoseidentifyingasAsianisstatisticallysignificant.

1225

1553

840

1628

1856

186

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Burglary Vandalism VehicleCrime Thei Assault Sexualassault

Rateper10,000households

48

Figure21:Differencesbetweenvictimsandnon-victimsICS2016

WeightedBase:2025(allrespondents)

A higher proportion of those who are employed and students reported one or more incidents incomparisonwiththeunemployedandeconomicallyinactive.Oftheseitisthepercentageofemployedrespondentsthatisstatisticallysignificant.Inrelationtotenure,itishomeownerswhoaremorelikelytoreportoneormoreincidents.

PropertyCrime–burglaryandvandalism/criminaldamage

Due to sampling differences, it is not possible to calculate prevalence rates or crime rates perthousandhouseholds fromthe2016 ICS. It ispossiblehowever, toanalyse thedistributionof crimetypes within the pool of those victimised and explore the extent to which any groups are over-represented.Thefollowinganalysisofthe2016ICSisbasedonweighteddataandrespondentswhohadexperiencedatleastonetypeofvictimisation(thepoolofvictimsinthesample).

The 1986 ICS found that burglary rates were higher amongst certain groups. Those with higherincomes,whowereemployed,wereBlack,residinginprivatelyrentedaccommodationandthoseagedto16-24allhadhigherratesofburglary.Asimilarpatternwasevidentinratesforvandalismwiththeexception of employment status and tenure. For vandalism, it was unemployed respondents andhomeownerswhohadhigherratesthanthoseinemploymentandotherformsoftenure.

In the2016data, forpropertycrime (burglaryandcriminaldamage)very fewstatistically significantdifferencesemerged.Thecomparisonsreportedbelowarebasedonpercentagedifferences.Ascanbeseenthereappearstobealevellingoutofthevictimsofpropertyoffenceswhichmaybearesultofthegeneralsecuritisationofpropertyintheformoflocks,alarmsandsurveillancesystems.

82% 84% 86%

86% 83%

81%

82% 87% 89%

83%

80% 84%

88%

85% 84%

18% 16% 14%

14% 17%

19%

18% 13% 11%

17%

20% 16%

12%

15% 16%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

16-24 25-44

45 and over

White Black Asian

Employed Unemployed

Economically InacFve Student

Home Owner Public Rent

Private Rent

Male Female

No vicFmisaFon One or more vicFmisaFons

49

Figure22:PropertyvictimisationICS2016

UnweightedBase:1,500,allvictims

Where the youngest age group experienced higher rates of victimisation for vandalism, theft andassaultthanolderagegroupsin1986butaslightlylowerincidenceofburglary.By2016,thepatternhaschangedwiththoseintheolderagegroupsexperiencingahigherlevelofpropertycrime.

In 2016, there is very little difference in reported victimisation between White, Black and Asianrespondents.Thisisincontrasttothe1986ICSsurveywhereBlackrespondentshadfarhigherratesofvictimisationthanotherethnicgroups(seebelow).

The 2016 data also show a different pattern by employment status and tenure, with a lowerproportion of those in privately rented accommodation and a higher proportion of those who areeconomicallyinactivereportingoneormorepropertycrimes.Fortenure,aslightlyhigherproportionof those in publicly rented accommodation report burglary (9%) in comparison with home owners(7%) and private renters (6%), whereas for criminal damage home owners hjave slightly higherreportingrates.

Personaltheft

The 1986 ICS data revealed that for personal theft, those aged 16-24, who were Black, female,employedandlivinginprivatelyrentedaccommodationhadthehighestratesofpersonaltheft.

The 2016 data show a similar pattern to 1986, while only the differences by age are statisticallysignificant. Higher proportions of females, those aged 16-24 and those residents living in privatelyrented accommodation reported one or more incidents of personal theft. Unlike 1986, a largerproportion of students and Asian respondents reported one ormore incidents in comparison withtheircounterpartsineachcategory.

95% 89%

85%

87% 89% 89%

90% 95%

84% 97%

88% 89%

93%

5% 11%

15%

13% 11% 11%

10% 5%

16% 3%

12% 11%

7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

16-24 25-44

45 and over

White Black Asian

Employed Unemployed



Private Rent

No property vicFmisaFon One or more property vicFmisaFons

50

Figure23:PersonaltheftvictimisationICS2016


Assault(1986),violenceandhatecrime(2016)

Forthe2016analysishatecrimeandviolencehavebeencombinedforcomparativepurposes.Whilstthe1986surveydidnotaskabouthatecrimeseparately,7%ofassaultsreportedbyrespondentsweredeemedtohaveracistmotivations.

78% 86%

92%

86% 88%

82%

87% 84%

88% 82%

86% 89%

84%

88% 85%

22% 14%

8%

14% 12%

18%

13% 16%

12% 18%

14% 11%

16%

12% 15%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

16-24 25-44

45 and over

White Black Asian

Employed Unemployed



Private Rent

Male Female

No personal theR One or more personal theR

51

Figure24:ViolenceandhatecrimevictimisationICS2016


In1986,theriskofassaultdeclinedwithage.Thoseinthe16-24agegrouphadthehighestrates,asdidthosewhowereBlack,femaleandthoseresidinginpubliclyrentedaccommodation.

The 2016 data show a different pattern. There is little difference in the proportions of males andfemales reporting one or more incidents (and no difference for violence and hate crime analysedseparately)andlittledifference,perhapssurprisinglygiventheinclusionofhatecrimeinthisanalysis,byethnicity.WhilstBlackrespondentsareslightlymorelikelytoreporthatecrime(8%)incomparisonwithAsian (7%)andWhite (4%respondents), it isWhite respondentswhoaremore likely to reportviolence(6%incomparisonwith3%eachofBlackandAsianrespondents).

Incontrastto1986thoseaged45andoverweremorelikelytoreportoneormoreincident,aswellasthose who are unemployed and economically inactive. A greater proportion of older respondentsreportedhatecrimeincidentsaswellasincidentsofviolence1.

The2016datashowsasimilarpatternofvictimisationtothatpresentedin1986inrelationtotenure,withahigherproportionofthoseinpubliclyrentedaccommodationreportingoneormoreincidentsthanthoseinotherformsoftenure.

1Forviolentincidentsanalysedseparately,4%of16-24yearoldsreportoneormoreincidents,5%of25-44yearoldsand6%ofthoseaged45andover.WhilstthedifferenceisnotaspronouncedasforHateCrimeitisinthesamedirection.

93% 90%

87%

90% 89%

91%

91% 86% 86%

93%

92% 87%

92%

90% 89%

7% 10%

13%

10% 11%

9%

9% 14% 14%

7%

8% 13%

8%

10% 11%

75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100%

16-24 25-44

45 and over

White Black Asian

Employed Unemployed



Private Rent

Male Female

No violence or hate crime vicFmisaFon One or more violence or hate crime vicFmisaFon

52

Sexualassault

A number of sexual assaultswere reported in the 1986 survey and respondentswere asked abouttheirexperienceofsexualassaultin2016.However,thenumberofincidentsreportedwasverylowin2016andanycomparisonswith1986shouldbetreatedwithcaution.

As in 1986, all those reporting sexual victimisation in 2016 were female. The 1986 ICS found thatwomenaged16-24,whowereemployedandinprivatelyrentedaccommodationhadthehighestratesofsexualvictimisation.Incontrast,therearenodifferencesbyageinthe2016data.Thereisaslightdifferencebyemploymentstatusinthatahigherproportionoffulltimestudents(3%)reportedoneormoreincidentsincomparisonwiththosewhowereunemployed(2%),economicallyinactive(1%)andemployed(lessthan1%).

Table15:Comparisonofvictimcharacteristics1986and2016

1986 2016Property Crime (Burglary andVandalism/CriminalDamage)

16-24yearsoldBlackEmployedPrivateRent

45andoverEconomicallyInactiveHomeowner (criminaldamage)&Public rent(burglary)

Theft 16-24yearsoldBlackFemaleEmployedPrivateRent

16-24yearsoldAsianFemalePrivateRent

Assault,Violence/HateCrime 16-24yearsoldBlackFemalePublicRent

45andover(forbothviolenceandhatecrime)PublicRentUnemployed (more so for violence) andeconomicallyinactive(moresoforhatecrime)

SexualViolence*

Female16-24yearsoldEmployedPrivateRent

FemaleStudentPrivateRent

*smallnumbersandveryslightdifferences

Thus,itwouldappear,thatincomparisonwith1986,theprofileofvictimisationhaslargelychanged.Withtheexceptionofpersonaltheft,itisnolongertheyoungestagegroupwhoareover-representedas victims foreachcrime type. Instead, in comparisonwithotheragegroups,higherproportionsofthoseaged45andoverhavereportedoneormoreincidentofpropertycrime,violenceorhatecrime.Black respondents are no longer over-represented in any of the crime types and again with theexceptionofpersonalthefttherearefewifanydifferencesbyethnicityinthe2016data.

53

Part5:SummaryandConclusion

Introduction

Inthissectionofthereportwehavesoughttoexaminethechangesinrelationtodifferentaspectsofcrime,victimisationandsafetybetween1986and2016. Asnotedabovethese twosurveysarenotdirectly comparable and they employ different sampling strategies and use different categories.However,as faras it ispossiblewehaveattemptedto identifysomeofthemainchangesthathavetakenplaceoverthisperiod.

Wehavealso set out to illustrate the changing context inwhich these surveyswere carriedout. Inparticular, we have drawn attention to the remarkable decrease in recorded crime that has takenplace in England and Wales since the mid 1990s. The implications of this ‘crime drop’ are thatindividualsandhouseholdsaregenerallylesslikelytobevictimisedin2016thantheyweretwentyorthirtyyearsearlier.Asmightbeexpectedthisdecreaseinvictimisationhaspositiveconsequencesformanyresident’ssenseofsafety,theirsatisfactionwiththeneighbourhoodandtheirfearofcrime.

Increasedneighbourhoodsatisfaction

Findings from the two surveys reveal a changingpicturewith respect to residents’ satisfactionwiththeirneighbourhood.The1986surveyrevealedasignificantdegreeofdiscontentamongstresidentswithvariousaspectsof theirneighbourhood.Unemploymentwasratedthehighest residentconcernwithtwothirdscitingthisasa‘big’problem,butathirdalsoratedcrimeasasignificantconcern.

In2016, thispicturechangedquite radicallywith justoverhalfof residents (51%)expressingahighlevel of satisfaction and48%expressing amedium level of satisfaction. The top concernshave alsochangedwith affordability of housing the ‘major’ concern forhalf of residents.Unemployment, notenough places for children to play and crime remained in the top five major concerns, but theproportionofresidentsperceivingthesetobea‘major’problemhaddeclinedsignificantly.

It is perhaps unsurprising that affordability of housing is the top concern in 2016 given the rapidincreaseinhousepricesandprivaterentsoverthelast30years.ArecentreportfoundthatIslingtonhad become more socially polarised with home ownership and privately rented accommodationincreasingly unaffordable for residents in the low andmiddle-income brackets (Penny et al., 2013).The findings from the 2016 survey echoed this with unemployed residents and those in privatelyrentedaccommodationsignificantlymorelikelytocitehousingcostsasaproblem.

Crimeasaneighbourhoodproblem

Asstatedabove,theproportionofresidentscitingcrimeasamajorproblemintheirneighbourhoodhasdeclined significantly since1986with13% in 2016 comparedwith37% in 1986 stating itwas amajorproblem.However,whilstperceptionsofcrimeasaneighbourhoodproblemhavedecreasedingeneralovertimewomenarestillmorelikelytoperceivecrimeasaproblem.

The2016surveyfoundthathomeownerswerealsomore likelytoperceivecrimeasaproblem.Thepattern forethnicity,however,hasbeen reversed. In1986,Asian residentswere far less likely than

54

BlackorWhiteresidentstoviewcrimeasaproblem,butin2016Asianrespondentsweremorelikelytoperceivecrimeasaproblem.

As in 1986, the 2016 survey sought to determine whether residents believed that crime wasincreasing,decreasingorhadremainedthesame,sincetheyhadbecomeresidentintheborough.In1986, almost three quarters (70%) thought crime to be more common, just over a quarter statedcrimehadremainedthesame(27%)and3%thoughtcrimelesscommon.In2016viewshadradicallychangedwithonly14%statingthatcrimehadincreased,afifthstatingithaddecreasedandtwothirds(66%) stating it had remained the same. Burglary and robbery/muggingwere themost likely to beseenas increasing in1986. In2016, itwas the ‘newcrimes’ofonlinecrime thatwereseen tohaveincreasedthemost.

In general, the picture that emerges in 2016 is radically different from that presented in 1986.Islingtonresidentshavebecomemoresatisfiedwiththeirneighbourhood,lessconcernedaboutcrimeandaremuchlesslikelytoseecrimeasincreasing.

Fearofcrime

Increased satisfactionwithneighbourhood is accompaniedbyan increased senseof safetyamongstresidents.The1986surveypresentedarelativelyfearfulpopulationwithhighlevelsofconcernabouttheriskofvictimisation.The2016surveyrevealedthatthesefearsformostsectionsofthecommunityaremuchreduced.

Thereductionofpublicconcernsaboutcrime is linkedtothe likelihoodofvictimisationandthishasdecreasedformostgroups1986.Apictureemergesofacommunitythatalthoughcontinuingtohaveconcernsaboutcrimeandvictimisationhasingeneralamuchgreatersenseofsafetythanthirtyyearsago.Thedramaticreductionintheperceivedlikelihoodofvictimisationwasfoundacrossvirtuallyallsocialgroups.

Attitudestowardsandco-operationwiththepolice

In 1986, a significant percentageof Islington residents had a low level of trust in thepolice,with athirdofresidentsstatingthattheydidnotthinkthepolicetreatedallpeoplefairlyandequally.Thosewhowereyoung(16-24),Blackandthosewhowereunemployedwereparticularlylikelytothinkthepolicewereunfairtocertaingroups.Therewasconsiderabledegreeofdisparityin1986betweenthepublicssenseofprioritiesandthoseofthepolice.

Whereas in1986only43%of respondents said that theyweresatisfiedwithpoliceperformanceby2016thishadincreasedto86%.Therearesomesimilaritieshowever,inwhoismorelikelytothinkthepolicedonottreateveryonefairly.Inboththe1986andthe2016surveysBlackresidentsweremorelikelythanWhiteorAsianresidentstothinkthatthepolicewereunfair,although,thenumberofBlackrespondentswhoexpressedthisviewin2016haddecreasedsignificantly.Trustandconfidenceinthepolicehasbecomeakeyperformanceindicatorofthepolicesince2009(Hohletal.,2010).Thechangeofattitudereflectedinthetwosurveysmayreflecttosomedegreethevariousinitiativesseekingtofostergreatertrustinthepolice.

55

Womenandvictimisation

The 1986 survey reported relatively high levels of physical and sexual assault against women,particularlythoseinyoungeragegroups.Whilenotingthatformsofsexualassaulttendtobeunderreportedandunderrecordedthe1986surveyestimatedthattherewereapproximately1200casesofsexual and physical assault in Islington in the twelvemonths prior to the survey. The high level ofassaultsdirectedatwomenwasseentoadverselyaffecttheirsatisfactionwiththeneighbourhoodandincrease their fear of crime. Women living in private rentals reported the highest level of sexualassaultandinoveraquarterofcasesthevictimknewtheoffender.Inrelationtotheinjuriessustainedbytheassault26%offemalerespondentsreportedbruising,19%reportedscratchesand5%reportedcuts.

Inrelationtosexualharassment justunderathirdofallyoungwomenreportedbeingfollowedandone in five said that they had been intimidated by kerb crawlers in 1986. Sexual harassment wasreportednotonlyonthestreetbutalsointheworkplace.Significantlythe1986reportfoundthatovera third (36%) of women said that they never went out alone after dark, while 16% said that theyalwaysavoidedcertainareas.ThesefindingsarefairlysimilartothosereportedintheBCSatthetime(HoughandMayhew1985:40)

The findings of the 2016 survey indicate that with regard to feelings of safety the situation hassignificantly improved,with justoveraquarterof femalerespondents (26%)reportingthattheyfeltunsafeatnight.Thepercentageofmenwhosaidthattheyfeltunsafeatnighthasalsodecreasedin2016,fallingto11%.

There were some variations amongst different age groups. In 1986 over 70% of all age groups ofwomensaidthattheyfeltunsafe.By2016some40%ofthosewomenagedbetween16and24saidthey felt unsafe but for older women the percentage was in the region of 25%. There are alsosignificant differences amongst different ethnic groups over the period. In 1986, around 70% ofwomenfromallethnicgroupsreportedfeelingunsafe.Inthe2016surveyaquarterofbothBlackandWhitewomenreportedfeelingunsafe,while41%ofAsianwomensaidtheyfeltunsafe.

Theextenttowhichtheactualvictimisationofwomenhasdecreasedisdifficulttoassess.Itiswidelyrecognised that victim surveys and official statistics tend to underestimate sexual offences becausethese are under reported and under recorded. As discussed above Sylvia Walby (2016) and hercolleagues have indicated in their reworking of BCS data that certain forms of violence may haveincreasedratherthandecreasedovertimeandthatthisincludesviolenceagainstwomen.

Arecentsurveycarriedoutby IslingtonCouncilestimatesthatonly38%ofalldomesticabusecasesand only 19% of sexual offences were recorded (Hayden 2016). In Islington the levels of reporteddomesticabusewere60%higherin2015/16thantheywerein2011/12accordingtopolicegenerateddata. It is also noted that Islington has the highest levels of violence against the person in Londonwherethevictimisfemaleandathirdofthesecasesaredomesticabuse.It isalsothecasethatthereportednumberof rapesnationally is increasing. It is not clear, however,whether these increasesrepresentanactualincreaseinlevelsofvictimisationoranincreasedpropensitytoreport.

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Ethnicityandvictimisation

It is inrelationtoethnicitythatsome importantdifferencesemergebetween1986and2016. Inthe1986 survey itwas reported that young Blackwomen aged 25-44weremore frequently subject tovandalism,theftfromtheperson,assault,andsexualassaultthantheirWhiteandAsiancounterparts.Inaddition,Blackwomenaged16-24hadhigherlevelsofburglary.

There weremajor concerns about stop and search and the disproportionate focus on young Blackmen.RelationsbetweentheBlackcommunityandthepolicewerefraughtwithtensionsasthepolicewerenotseentotreatBlackresidentsfairly,particularlyyoungBlackmales.

In 2016, these particular tensions are far less evident. Ethnicity was less of a factor in indicatingvictimisation, with the exception of hate crime. In 1986 those respondents categorised as Blackreportedthehighestlevelsofvictimisationforallcrimetypesandforassaulttheyweretwiceaslikelyto be victimised as other ethnic groups (MacLean 1989).However, as Table 16 below indicates thevictimisationprofileforBlackresidentsasawholeintheboroughisnowfairlysimilartootherethnicgroups. Although these figures are not statistically significant they suggest that the proportionaldistributionamongstdifferentethnicgroupsinIslingtonhaschangedconsiderablysince1986.

Figure25:ICS2016comparisonofvictimsandnon-victimsbyethnicity

Therehasbeenamajorchangeintheethniccompositionoftheborough.Thegrowingproportionof‘White Other’ has added to the increased diversity in Islington. This group is mainly drawn fromdifferentEuropeancountries.Thepercentageofmigrantsaged16-44hasincreasedby18%,manyofwhomliveintheprivaterentedsector.Relatedly,therehasbeenadecreaseintheolderpopulationand there are now fewer pensioners in the Islington area than in 1981 (9% compared with 17%previously).

ThosecategorisedasWhiteOther reported the lowestoverall levelof victimisation, including lowerlevelsofburglary,violenceandtheft thanotherethnicgroups.Theywerealso less likely thanothergroupstobelievethattheywouldbevictimisedinthenexttwelvemonthsandexpressedahighlevelofsatisfactionwiththeneighbourhoodaswellasconfidenceinthepolice.Theeffectsoftheincrease

86%

83%

81%

14%

17%

19%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

White

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Asian

Non-viclms Viclms

57

ofWhite Other residents in urban areas like Islington appears to have a significant impact on thedistributionofcrimeandvictimisationandrequiresmoredetailedinvestigation.

A further findingof the surveywas a veryhigh rateof victimisationby those categorisedas ‘mixedrace’,althoughthenumbersofpeopleinthesurveywastoosmalltobaseanystatisticalanalysistheverylevelofvictimisationamongstthisgroupalsocallsforfurtherinvestigation.

Thechangingdistributionofcrime

Intermsofthechangingdistributionofcrimeintheboroughthequestionthatarisesiswhethertherehasbeenashiftovertimefromthemoreaffluentwardstothelesswell-offareas.

According to the 1986 survey the wards that had the highest levels of victimisation were Bunhill,Mildmay,ThornhillandCanonburyWest.Thewardswiththelowestlevelofvictimisationatthattimewere Highbury, Hillmartin, Junction and Holloway. According to the 2016 survey data the highestcrimewardsin2015-16areHolloway,Hillrise,BunhillandMildmay.Thesefiguressuggestthattherehasbeensomedegreeofspatialredistributionofvictimisationovertimeintheborough.

Figure26:Distributionofallcrimebyward1986

Source:MacLean1989(figureA-9)

Inorder toaddress thequestionofwhether themoreaffluent sectorsof thepopulationhavebeenmoreeffectiveinreducingtheir levelofvictimisationbyinsulatingthemselvesfromvariousformsofcrimeweexaminedthedistributionofvictimisationbyward.WorkingfromFigure25aboveweaimedtoexaminethechangingdistributionofcrimeovertime.

To do this we looked at the Household Income estimates produced by the GLA for 2012/3 (latestfiguresavailable).Wecomparedthiswiththeratesofvictimisationamongstthesurveyrespondentsfor each ward (the data was weighted to reflect the actual population, however, these are notprevalenceratesbutthetrendswithinthesurveypopulation).Thereisa10%differencebetweenthe

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58

lowestrateofvictimisationat11%(Clerkenwell)andthehighestat21%(Hillrise).Althoughthereisbynomeansastrongcorrelationbetweenincomeandvictimisation,thereisageneraldownwardtrendinvictimisationasmeanaverageincomerises(seeFigure26).

Table16:Percentagereportingvictimisation(weighted)andmeanaverageincomebyward2016

Ward Victimsince2015Mean averageincome

FinsburyPark 15% £46,290

Holloway 20% £48,760

Caledonian 14% £49,320

Tollington 18% £52,490

Hillrise 21% £53,930

Bunhill 20% £54,080

Mildmay 18% £54,230

Junction 15% £54,490

Canonbury 15% £56,130

StGeorge's 16% £56,520

Clerkenwell 11% £60,270

HighburyWest 17% £60,960

StPeter's 12% £61,060

Barnsbury 13% £62,770

StMary's 15% £64,670

HighburyEast 15% £67,250

59

Figure27:Victimisation(weighted)bywardandincome:lineartrend

The limitation of this type of analysis is that nearly all of thewards in Islington have amixture ofaffluenceanddeprivation.Also,theseaggregatefiguresmaskvariationsinthetypeofcrimerecorded.That is, a wardmay have a low level of crime but this may involve a disproportionate amount ofseriouscrime.

10

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40000 50000 60000 70000

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Figure28:Indexofdeprivationbyward

Analternativemeasureoftherelationbetweenthedistributionofcrimeandaffluenceisthroughtheexaminationoftherelationshipbetweentenureandcrime.Theevidenceisthatthosewhoowntheirhousesoutrighttendingeneraltobewealthierthanprivaterenterswhointurntendtobebetteroffthanpublicrenters.

Accordingtothe1986surveyowneroccupiersexperiencedalowerlevelofassaultandsexualassaultalthough they reported by far the highest number of incidents of vandalism. Those in public rentalexperiencedthehighestlevelofassault,whilethoseinprivaterentalexperiencedthehighestlevelofpersonaltheft.Theweighteddatafromthe2016surveycomparingtherelationshipbetweentenureand victimisation indicates significant differences in the likelihood of victimisation between thesegroupswithowneroccupiershavingaslightlyloweroveralllevelofvictimisationformostoffences.

16 State of Equalities in Islington Annual Report 2016

Socio-economic deprivation Overall, Islington is the 26th most deprived local authority in England: this represents a relative

improvement from the 2014 position of 14th.

However, Islington ranks third nationally on the income deprivation indicator for children, and fifth for income deprivation affecting older people. On both measures, this represents an improvement in relative deprivation by one place on 2014.54

Every ward in Islington has at least one area that is among the 20% most deprived areas of England.

The general pattern of deprivation in Islington is similar to previous years: Hillrise, Finsbury Park, Caledonian, and areas of Mildmay, Junction, St George’s and Canonbury were all in the most deprived areas of Islington in the last assessment, and continued to be in 2015.55

The most common types of housing tenure in Islington are social housing rented from the council and private rented housing (27% and 26% of all households respectively).56

28% of all householders own their own home, less than half the national average (63%).57

Highbury East

Highbury West

Mildmay

Canonbury

St. Mary’s

St. Peter’s

Bunhill

Clerkenwell

Barnsbury

Caledonian

Holloway

St. George’s

Finsbury Park

Tollington

Junction

Hillrise

Highbury East

Highbury West

Mildmay

Canonbury

St. Mary’s

St. Peter’s

Bunhill

Clerkenwell

Barnsbury

Caledonian

Holloway

St. George’s

Finsbury Park

Tollington

Junction

Hillrise

Index of Multiple Deprivation, 2015

Islington LSOAs by national deprivation quintiles (123)

© Crown Copyright and database right 2015. Ordnance Survey 100021551.

Most deprived (54)2 (52)3 (16)4 (1)Least deprived (0)

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% o

f po

pula

tion

Owned Social Rent Private Rent

Housing Tenure Breakdown

Islington London England

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Figure29:Victimisationbycrimetypeandtenureper1000households1986

Figure30:Victimisationbycrimetypeandtenurein2016(weighteddata)

Althoughthesetwodatasetsemployslightlydifferentcategoriesandmeasuresofvictimisation,thereisagenerallevelofcomparisonthatcanbemade.Overall,thereseemstobeaneveningoutintermsofvictimisationbytenure.

32%

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Burglary Vandalism Personalthei Assault Sexualassault

Owners(inc.mortgage) Publicrent Privaterent

38% 44%35%

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Allcrimetypes PropertyCrimePersonalCrime VehicleCrime OnlineCrime

OwnerOccupier PublicRent PrivateRent

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In1986,publicrentalresidentshadmuchhigherratesofassaultthanthoseinotherformsoftenure,whereasthespreadin2016isrelativelyeven.Inrelationtopropertycrimethereislittledifferenceinthedistributionin2016whichmaywellbeafunctionofincreasedsecuritisationbywhichnotonlyarethe majority of dwellings and vehicles fitted with locks and alarms but also there has been aproliferationofsurveillancedevicesaswellasthegrowthofbothprivateandpublicsecurityagenciesdesignedtoprovidemorecomprehensivelevelsofprotection.

Thechangingconcentrationofcrime

Asalreadydiscussed,adefiningfeatureofmanyWesternsocietiesoverthepastdecadeorsoisthatcrimerateshavesteadilydecreased.Thereisasyetnoclearconsensusontheprimarydriversofthis‘crimedrop’,andindeed,somearguethatthe‘drop’maynotbeassignificantasitappearsduetoanundercountingofsomeformsofviolence(Walbyetal.,2016).

It iswithin this context thatan interest in the concentrationof victimisationhasemerged. Ignatansand Pease (2015) recently demonstrated through analysis of Crime Survey for England and Wales(CSEW) data, that whilst those who were most victimised in society are now experiencing fewervictimisations,theystillbearthebruntofadisproportionateshareofcrimevictimisationoverall.

Drawingonthe2016ICSdatawehaveappliedthreecommonlyusedindicatorsofrepeatvictimisation(TseloniandPease,2014):

• Crimeconcentration–theaveragenumberofcrimespervictim.

• Thepercentageofrepeatcrimes.

• Thepercentageofrepeatvictims.

Allfiguresreportedherearebasedonunweightedandun-cappeddata(seeIgnatansandPease,2015for a discussion of the disadvantages of capping). The analysis reveals distinct differences betweencrimetypes.Overall,acrossthe1,498victimsinthesampleforwhomanumberofvictimisationscouldbedetermined,atotalof11,294 incidentswerereported.Thenumberof incidentsreportedrangedfrom1 through to1,000.Whilst theproportionof repeat victimswasmuch lower than in the1986survey(27%incomparisonwith47%),thereisaratherhighaverageof7.5crimespervictim.Similarly,ofthe11,233crimesahighpercentage-91%(n=10,200)wererepeatoffences.

Furtheranalysisrevealedthatthehighaveragenumberofcrimespervictimandrepeatcrimesacrossthesampleofvictimswere largelydrivenbythe inclusionofthe ‘new’offencetypeswithfraudandotheronlinecrimecontainingthelargestvolumesofrepeatincidents.Toexplorethisfurther,wehavedividedthecrimetypesintotwobroadgroups:

• ‘Traditional’offences–thiscategoryincludesburglary,personaltheft,vehiclecrime,violence,hatecrime,sexualassaultandcriminaldamage.

• ‘New’offences–thiscategoryincludesfraud,thevastmajorityofwhichwasonlinefraudandotheronlineoffences.

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Table17:Concentrationofvictimisation

All Traditional New

Totalnumberofvictims 1,498 665 941

Totalnumberofoffences 11,233 986 10,247

Meannumberpervictim 7.5 1.5 10.9

%Repeatvictims 27% 17% 24%

%Repeatcrimes 91% 44% 93%

Rangeofincidents 1-1000 1-37 1-1000

Table 17 above demonstrates significant differences in the concentration of crime between‘traditional’and‘new’offences.Fortraditionaloffences,theaveragenumberofcrimespervictim,theproportionofrepeatvictimsandtheproportionofrepeatcrimesareallfarlowerincomparisonwith‘new’offencetypes.Whilstinthetraditionaloffencecategorythereisasmallgroupofrepeatvictims,justunderafifth,whocarrytheburdenofjustunderhalfofalloffences(44%),theconcentrationofvictimisationinthe‘new’offencecategoryismuchgreater,withaquarterofallvictimsexperiencing93% of the total volume of online related crimes. reporting an online related offence (17%)experiencingtwoormore.

Figure31:Repeatcrimesandrepeatvictimisationbyindividualcrimetype

Further analysis revealed variations by specific crime type. Some caution is needed here since thenumberofoffencesisfairlysmall.FraudandotheronlinecrimehasbeenincludedinFigure28aboveforcomparativepurposes.

37 37

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%repeatincidents %repeatviclms

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The 1986 ICS demonstrated that for a significant proportion of residents repeat victimisation wasrelatively high.Overall, almost half (47%) of households surveyed experienced repeat victimisation,with repeat victimisation for assault and vandalism 38% and 37% respectively, and 15% for sexualassault. By 2016, repeat victimisationhad significantly decreasedwith themajority of respondentsreportingonevictimisationexperience(73%).

For other crime types, the proportion of repeat victims ranged from 16% for hate crime, 14% forvehicle crime, 12% for burglary, 9% for personal theft and 4% for criminal damage. Wherecomparisonsarepossiblewiththe1986survey,thedatafrom2016suggestsignificantlyfewerrepeatvictimsbothoverallandforspecificcrimetypes.

Figure32:Repeatvictimisation1986and2016

Fromthe2016survey,therearealsodifferencesbetweencrimetypesastotheproportionofrepeatcrimes (see Figure 29 above). Fraud and other online crime have already been discussed. Sexualviolenceandhatecrimestandoutasoffencestypeswiththehighestproportionofrepeatcrimes.Forsexualviolence,athirdofvictimsexperiencedover80%ofthetotalnumberofincidents.Withrespecttohatecrime,itwouldappearthat16%ofvictimsexperienceoverhalfofalltheincidents(54%).Forpropertycrime,12%ofburglaryvictimsexperiencealmost two fifthsofallburglary incidents (37%),and the disparity is even greater for those reporting criminal damage, with just 4% of victimsexperiencingjustundertwofifthsofthetotalvolumeofcriminaldamageincidents(37%).

Insum,levelsofrepeatvictimisationaremuchlowerin2016incomparisonwith1986.Thus,overallthe 2016 survey yielded a much higher volume of ‘new’ crime types which, in comparison with‘traditional’crimetypeshavehigherrepeatvictimisationratesandasignificantlyhighermeannumberofincidentspervictim(usingun-cappeddata).Intermsofvolume,averyhighpercentageofthe‘new’crimetypesarerepeatcrimes.

ThesefindingsaregenerallyinlinewiththosereportedintheBCS/CSEW.InreviewingthisdataBrittonet al. (2012) found that between 1981 and 1995 the number ofmultiple incidents in England and

24%

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Wales increased by 83%, compared with the number of single incidents which increased by 49%.However, between 1995 and 2010-11 the number ofmultiple incidents decreased by 60% and thenumberofsingle incidentsdecreasedby21%.This relationship isalsoreflected in theproportionofmultiple incidents; forexample, in1995multiple incidentsmadeup74%ofallBCScrimecomparedwith59%in2010-11.Itissuggestedthatthedecreaseinconcentration,itissuggested,thatisdirectlylinkedtothedramaticdecreaseinrecordedcrimethathastakenplaceoverthelasttwodecades.

Inconjunctionwiththechangingconcentrationofcrimefutureresearchneedstofocusinmoredetailon thechangingdistributionofcrime.According to ICS1some31%ofhouseholds in Islingtonwerevictims of crime. In 2016 the proportion of households subject to victimisation has dropped inIslington to 15% according to the Metropolitan Police survey and in London as a whole to 21%according to the CSEW. Our data suggests that there has been a decrease in victimisation acrossdifferentsocialgroups,particularlyinrelationtopropertycrime.This‘levellingout’ofvictimisationintermsof traditional crimesmaybea functionof thewidespreaduseof security in all social sectorswhichincludesaproliferationoflocksandbolts,alarmsandformsofsurveillanceaswellasanarrayofsecuritydevicesthatarewidelyavailable.Otherresearchhasalsofoundthatallsub-groupsarebetteroffincrimerisktermsin2009-10comparedwith1995(Groveetal.2012).

Newcrimes,newvictims?

Probablythemostdramaticchangeinrelationtocrimeandvictimisationhasbeentheproliferationofformsofonlinecrime.Inoursurveyitwasfoundthatjustoverhalfofthosewhohadbeenvictimisedintheprevioustwelvemonthshadbeenvictimsofonlinecrime.Oftheseapproximatelyhalfhadbeenvictimisedmorethanonce.

Themostcommonformofonlinecrimewasbankandcreditcardfraud(67%)followedbyadvancedfeefraud(19%).Fouroutoffiveoftheincidentswerenotreportedtothepolice,buttoanotherbody–normallyafinancialinstitutionwhichreimbursedvictimswholostmoneyinthemajorityofcases.

Thehigh incidenceofonline crimehas radically changed theprofileof victimswhoarenowspreadmore evenly across the population. The fact that inmany cases there is no actual financial loss orphysicaldamagemeansthatthedefinitionofwhatconstitutesa’victim’iscalledintoquestion.

Theendofthecrimedrop?

Thereareagrowingnumberof indicators thatsuggest that thedecrease in recordedcrimethatwehave witnessed over the last two decades may be coming to an end. Recorded crime in Islingtonincreasedby9.2%in2015/16,whichisfasterthantheLondonaverageof4.4%,andrecordedcrimeisatitshighestlevelforfiveyears.

Nationally,accordingtopolicegenerateddatatherehasbeena27%increaseinviolenceagainsttheperson in 2015-16. This is the highest increase in a twelvemonth period since 2002. In fact, everypolice force in thecountry recordedan increase inviolence in2015-16comparedwith thepreviousyear. Between 2010 and 2016 there has been a 10% increase in knife crime, 26% increase inattemptedmurder,26%increaseinattemptstokilland15%increaseinassaultswithinjury.TheCSEWin contrast indicates not somuch an increase but rather the slowing down and in some cases thelevellingoutofdifferentformsofcrime.

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However,itisprobablynotsurprisinggiventhedecreaseinrecordedcrimeoverthepasttwodecadesthat public attitudes towards crime and victimisation have radically changed. It would seem thatresidentsinurbanareaslikeIslingtonfeelsaferandlesslikelytobevictimisedthanthoselivinginthearea in the1980s.Thereappears tobebothawideningand redistributionofvictimisation togetherwith a greater levelling out of victimisation resulting in what might be referred to as the‘democratisationofvictimisation’.

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Appendix 1. Differences between the format of the two Islington CrimeSurveys

Thereweresomekeydifferencesbetweenthewaythatthe1986and2016surveyswereconducted,whichmeans thatadirect comparisonbetween the two isnotpossible.However, thereare severalpointsofsimilarityandcrossover,whichmeansthatsomemeaningfulcomparisonscanbemade.Thischapteroutlinesthekeydifferencesbetweenthetwosurveys.

Crimecategories

Thereweresomedifferencesinthecrimecategoriesusedinthesurveys

• Personal Theft: both surveys gathered data on personal theft. However, there were somedifferences. For example, in 1986, there was more emphasis on experiences of ‘robbery’whereasin2016thefocuswason‘muggings’.Thiscategoryalsoincludesitemstakenfromthehome(withoutforced/deceptionentry)oroffencesthathavetakenplacepublicspaces.

• Vandalism/Criminal Damage: in 1986 questions were asked about ‘vandalism’ whereas in2016questionswereaskedabout‘criminaldamage’asanewandmoreclearlydefinedcrimecategory. However, these offences are sufficiently similar to be compared and involve thedeliberatedamagingordefacingofproperty.

• VehicleCrime:theftofandtheftfromavehicleweremeasuredinbothsurveys.In2016,thesecrimeswerealsoanalysedalongsidecriminaldamageofavehicleasa separatecategory. In1986,damagetoavehiclewasanalysedunderthecategoryofvandalism.

• Assault/ViolenceAgainstthePerson:althoughdifferentlanguagewasusedin1986(assault)and2016(violenceagainsttheperson),thesurveysadoptedthesamelegalunderstandingoftheseoffences (in linewithviolenceagainstthepersonoffences).However, the1986surveyinvestigatedethnicity,domesticandpoliceassaultstoagreaterdegreethanthe2016survey.

• Sexual Assault andHarassment: sexual assaultwas investigated by both surveys. However,street harassment was categorised as ‘non-criminal street harassment’ which includesbehaviour relating to street harassment of women (being stared at, followed, approached,shoutedat,touched,kerbcrawled,orconfronted).

• HateCrime:the1986categoryof ‘non-criminalstreetharassment’also includedharassmentdirectedatpeopleduetoethnicity,whichoverlapstosomedegreewiththe2016categoryofhatecrime.

• Anti-Social Behaviour: anti-social behaviour as a category had not been ‘invented’ in 1986.However, therewas some discussion of teenage rowdiness and fights or disturbance in thestreet.Nevertheless,thisdoesnotcapturetherangeofconcernsdiscussedunderthisheadinginthe2016survey(suchasdruguseandlittering).

Variationsinresearchinstruments

Inadditiontodifferencesincategoriesofcrime,thenatureofthequestionsaskeddifferedinthefollowingways:

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• Neighbourhoodsatisfactionwasmeasuredusingthecategories‘bigproblem,bitofaproblem,not really, don’t know’ in 1986 and ‘major problem, minor problem, not a problem, don’tknow’in2016.

• ‘Poor housing’ in 1986 is replaced by ‘housing costs’ in 2016 and ‘poor schools’ in 1986 isreplacedby‘schoolavailability’in2016.

• In 1986, residentswereasked if crimehad increased in the last five years,whereas in2016residentswereaskedifcrimehadincreasedfromthedatethattheymovedintothearea.

• The likelihoodofvictimisationwasmeasuredslightlydifferently inbothsurveys. In1986 thedivisionsof ‘high,moderate,and low’wereused,while in2016 thedistinctions ‘fairly likely,very likely, fairlyunlikely,andveryunlikely’wereadopted.However, inbothyears residentswereaskedaboutthelikelihoodofvictimisationinthenext12months.

• The1986surveyexploredworryrelatingtospecifictypesofcrime,whichwerenotmeasuredin2016.Fearofcrimemoregenerallywasmeasuredinbothyearsbywhetherrespondentsfeltworried(1986)orunsafeatnight(2016).In2016thiswasalsomeasuredduringthedaytime,whereas in 1986 respondentswere asked about feeling unsafe in their homes andwhethertheyfeltwomenwereatriskintheareaatnight.

• In 1986, willingness to co-operate with the police was determined through a series ofquestions that put forward different scenarios – witnessing an accident, youths stealing awallet, and youths smashing up a bus shelter – in combination with different levels ofengagement – reporting, giving a witness statement, and appearing in court. In 2016,respondentswereaskedaboutwillingnesstoreporta‘seriousincident’.

• Satisfaction with the police was measured in different ways in both surveys. In 1986,respondentswere asked about police handling of the case aswell as general confidence inpolicehandlingofspecificissues.Incontrast,in2016residentswereaskedaboutsatisfactionwiththeoutcomeofacase.

• Further,in1986respondentswereaskedaboutpolicingprioritiesandperceptionofthewaysin which the police handle specific types of crime. In 2016 residents were not asked thisquestion.However,bothsurveysmeasuredwhetherthepolicewereviewedastreatingpeoplefairlyandequally.

Samplingstrategies

The First Islington Crime Survey conducted in 1986 was based on a random sample of 1,974respondents.AboostersampleofethnicminorityresidentswasincludedinordertocontactenoughBMEresidentstoprovideabasisformeaningfulanalysis.Thedatawasthenweighted.

In2016, thesampledeliberatelyover-sampledthosewithat leastonevictimisationexperience.Thisyielded1,501victimsoutof2,025interviewed.

Thismeans that prevalence can bemeasured in 1986 but not in 2016 due to the deliberate over-samplingofvictims.Nevertheless,ratesofvictimisationwithinthesurveypopulationcanbemeasured

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againsttheproportionsofrespondentswithparticularcharacteristics inordertodeterminewhethertheirvictimisationisdisproportionatetotheirnumbersinthesurveypopulation.

Appendix2.Thecategorisationofrespondents

Becauseofthewaythatthefirstsurveycategorisedethnicity, theonlydirectcomparisonpossible isbetweenWhite andBME residents. It is important tonote that the first surveyused the categories‘White’, ‘Black’, ‘Asian’, and ‘Other Non-White’. Themost recent Islington Crime Survey, however,createdthecategory‘WhiteOther’foranalysisbecauseoftheincreaseinwhiteimmigrantsoverthelast 30 years in order to capture the differences in how they experience their neighbourhood andcrimecomparedwithWhiteBritish.‘WhiteOther’isadiversecategory,whichmainlyincludesrecentimmigrantsfromEuropeanCountriesaswellasAustralasiaandSouthAmerica.

Intheremainderofthisdocument,weusethedatafor‘White’,‘Black’,and‘Asian’respondentsinthetwo surveys to make relevant comparisons. However, the differences in categorisation should benoted.Itislikelythatpeoplein1986wouldhavebeencategoriseddifferentlyunderthe2016criteria.

Inaddition,the1986surveymeasuredincomelevels,whereasthe2016surveydidnot.Incomelevelsareonewayofgaugingthelevelsofaffluenceinaparticularhousehold.Inthe2016surveytherewasgreater emphasis on tenure and employment status, which is not directly related to income.Mostimportantly, it is likelythatprivaterentersaremoreaffluentthan in1986ashousepricesandrentsrise.Therefore,in2016thereislikelytobeadifferenceinaffluencebetweenpublicrentersandothertypesoftenure.

Further, length of tenure was not used as a category for analysis in 1986, whereas this became arelevantcategoryin2016dueinparttorisingmigration.Residentswhohadbeenintheboroughforlesstimeappearedtohaveadifferentrelationshiptotheneighbourhood(inessence,displaying lessconcernandmoresatisfaction)fromresidentswhohadbeenintheboroughforlonger.

Analysisin1986wasalsoconductedonadifferentbasisfrom2016.The1986surveyfavouredcross-tabulations by ethnicity, gender, and age, as well as other characteristics where relevant. The rawnumbers–forexampletotalnumberofresidentswhoreportedhighlevelsoffear,ortotalnumbersineach category by characteristic – were notmade available. Therefore, cross-tabulations have beenusedwherepossibleinordertomakerelevantcomparisons.

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Islington Part Two Report - · PDF fileAn Analysis of the Changing Nature of Urban Crime and Victimisation: A Focus on Islington Part Two