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DATE: PREPARED BY: PREPARED FOR:
Beer & Co 4th Tin Conference
Is tin taking off?
22 Nov 2016 Peter Kettle & Tom MulqueenITRI Board Meeting
Forecast
April 2013
Trend following fundsStocks not quite low enough yetDemand growth has stalled in last decadeMyanmar has filled predicted supply gapChina over-supply
Is tin price taking off now?
Headwinds in 2015 - 2016
What happened?
Myanmar !
HeadlineMyanmar supply still uncertain
10-fold increase in production in four yearsMove to underground miningBig investments in equipment, processing, roadsOre grades falling from 10%+ to 2 – 3%Big stocks of low-grade ore and concentrateNew discoveries?
HeadlineThe big five tin mining countries
’000 tonnes tin-in-concentrate
Slump in Indonesian exports
12-month rolling total of tin exports
New export regulations from 1 July & 30 August 2013,November 2014, August 2015
Higher ore buying prices may stimulate production?
Looking good now !
Total reported refined tin stocks
’000 tonnes refined tin
Weeks’ supply by application, end 2015
Consumer tin stocks relative to usage: averages by industry sectors
Weighted averages from 80 companies
providing stocks data.
World tin use growth stalled
Post-war reconstruction
to oil crisis
Electronics & lead-free solders
Cans and cars
’000t refined tin
2016 Tin Use & Recycling Survey
ITRI estimates of 2015 refined tin use by regionITRI estimates of 2015 global refined tin use, market share, by sector
Applications: China vs Rest of World
China Rest of World
Data: ITRI Surveys
Global visible stocks falling
World Supply/Demand Balances in Refined Tin('000 tonnes) Estimate Forecast
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017WorldWorld Refined Production 334.7 340.1 369.2 333.0 336.1 340.5DLA Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0World Refined Consumption 339.4 349.0 357.8 345.7 347.8 353.5Global Market Balance -4.7 -8.9 11.4 -12.7 -11.7 -13.0
Reported stocksLME 12.8 9.7 12.1 6.1 3.0 2.0SHFE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.5 2.0Producers 15.9 13.7 15.8 14.0 10.0 7.0Consumer/other 10.7 10.9 11.2 11.3 9.0 8.0Total 39.5 34.3 39.1 32.2 24.5 19.0World Stock Ratio(weeks consumption) 6.0 5.1 5.7 4.8 3.7 2.8
Regional supply/demand balances
China surplus supply vs Rest of World shortfall
’000t refined tin
Surplus
Deficit
Production costs indicate medium-term average price
2020 ITRI Tin Mine Full Costs (NBP)US
$/to
nne
of ti
n
Looking good now !
Trend following funds- Not quite out of five year downtrend
Stocks not quite low enough- Close to historical low, depletion of consumer and raw material stocks?
Demand growth has stalled in last decade- Mixed signals but consumption stable in 2016
Myanmar has filled predicted supply gap- Production at (temporary?) peak, few/no-alternatives
China over-supply- Possible cap on price recovery
Is tin price taking off?
ITRIUnit 3, Curo Park
Frogmore St. Albans Hertfordshire
AL2 2DDUnited Kingdom
+ 44 (0)1727 875544www.itri.co.uk
ITRI China Room 1606, C2 Tower,
Jinmao Building,No. 18
Xizhimenwai Street, Xicheng District,
Beijing,China,
100044+86 10
6808 [email protected]
www.itri.com.cn
We believe that global co-operation on markets, technology, sustainability and regulatory issues is the most cost effective route to achieve long-term success for the industry. If we work together effectively then the outlook for tin is very positive.
Global co-operation for long-term success
Thank You