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Is There a North America Craft Labor Cliff That Will Affect Project Performance?
Jennifer Sulak Brown, Barton Malow Company
Research Team 318
• Mitch Lee
• Chris Maxson
• James MacDonald
• Jennifer Sulak Brown
• Jon Tate
• Tim Taylor
• Paul Goodrum
• Mohammed Albattah
• Hossein Karimi
• Kevin Blair
• Scean Cherry
• Kimberly Corley
• Brandon Davis
• Marco Giron
• Steve Greene
• Daniel Groves
• Shaddy Hanna
• Dean Hamrick
• Don Jones
RT 318 Members
Learning Objectives
• Examine current demographic trends in the construction
workforces of the U.S. and Canada, to see how they affect
availability of qualified craft workers.
• Learn how craft availability affects a project’s performance.
• Learn how to mitigate the impact of potential craft availability
on project safety, cost, schedule, and quality performance.
What Motivates Craft Workers?Job Preferences Question, 1974 to 2012
SOURCE: National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago, General Social Survey on Craft Job Satisfaction
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150
10
20
30
40
50
60
High Income Job Security Work Accomplishment
Pre
fere
nces
in t
he J
ob (
%)
CC: Jpatokal
What Is Causing the Cliff?
Research Team 318
RT-318 Research Process
Cliff Location– 13 Data Sources
– 2 million+ individual data points
Performance Impact– 97 completed projects
• RT-318 survey
• CII BM&M Database
Literature Review
Secondary Data Collection
RT-318 Survey
Demographic Data Analysis
CII BM&M Data
Database Construction
(Mann-Whitney)
C.R.A.F.T. Model
Development
Conclusions & Recommendations
Craft Shortage?
• Employment
• Gaps in Craft Supply and Dame
• Age
Craft Shortage
Aging Workface
Gaps in Craft
Supply and
Demand
Employment
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
5
10
15
20
25
United States
Electricians (U.S.)
Pipelayers, plumbers, pipefitters, and steam-fitters (U.S.)U
nem
ploy
men
t R
ate
(%)
U.S. SOURCE: Data Ferret – Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Great Recession
Actual Annual Unemployment Rate[United States - Craft workers only]
Natural Unemployment Rate
Future Labor Deficit/Surplus for Top Five Trades by Staffing Difficulty Regions Level– First Quarter 2018
SOURCE FOR ESTIMATED LABOR DEMAND: Construction Labor Market Analyzer (CLMA)
- Electricians- Instrumentation Technicians- Ironworkers / Welders- Pipefitters- Pipefitters / Combo Welders
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201436
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
Construction Industry All Other Industries
Aver
age
Age
Average AgeConstruction vs. All Other Industries
Average Aging Rate = 0.405 years/year
Average Aging Rate = 0.092 years/year
Average Aging Rate = 0.248 years/year
SOURCE: Data Ferret – Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
SOURCE: Current Employment Statistics (CES), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.INFLATION ADJUSTMENT SOURCE: Consumer Price Index – All Urban (CPI – U), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
Total Private
Construction
Ave
rage
Hou
rly I
ncom
e (2
014
$ A
mou
nt)
Real Wages ($2014 Amount – Inflation Adjusted)Construction vs. Total Private – Craft Trades Only
19.7%
42.0%
CC: Jpatokal
What Is on the Other Side of the Cliff?
Research Team 318
Historical Safety Performance of Projects Affected by Craft Labor Shortage
SOURCE: RT 318 Project Survey and CII Benchmarking and Metrics Database
Come to our Implementation Session
• Beyond safety, what are the impacts of the cliff on cost and schedule?
• More specific changes in demographics related to the following:– craft availability– wages and per diem– gaps in education and training
• Implementation resource for modeling any project risk due to craft availability
Moderator
Jon Tate (Zurich)
Panelists
Shaddy Hanna (ConocoPhillips)
Dean Hamrick (Fluor)
Daniel Groves (CURT)
Tim Taylor (Univ. of Kentucky)