CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 1

Is Carbon Trading and Investment the next Sub-Prime Crisis?

“Dubious Assets and Dodgy Data”

CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 2

The Sub-Prime Crisis

Investment Managers & Advisers

Investment Managers & Advisers

InvestorsAAA

Securities

Historic Mortgage experience based on

Credit-worthy Owner-Occupiers

Loan files (tapes)Fraudulent applications/Poor risks

Issuing banks

Credit Ratings Agencies

Property Agents Lenders Borrowers

CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 3

Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW)

CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 4

The scientific method

Establish hypothesis Conduct experiments and observations Publish results in an accredited scientific journal Make source data, assumptions, calculations

and programs available to others Independent peer review Hypothesis is proven or abandoned

CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 5

AGW hypothesis

“It is now clear that man-made greenhouse gases are causing climate change. The rate of change began as significant, has become alarming and

is simply unsustainable in the long term”

WarmingClimate change – the

factsMet Office 2009

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Greenhouse effect

WarmingClimate change – the facts

Met Office 2009

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The Missing Hotspot - Dr David Evanshttp://sciencespeak.com/MissingSignature.pdfhttp://sciencespeak.com/SimpleHotspot.pdfhttp://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2005JD006881.shtml

Absence of greenhouse hot-spots

CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 8

Correlation of CO2 and temperature

This figure shows historical CO2 (right axis) and reconstructed temperature (as a difference from the mean temperature for the last 100 years) records based on Antarctic ice cores,

providing data for the last 800,000 years.

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The logic puzzle?“Temperature and CO2 are linked. Studies of polar-ice layers show that in the past, rises in temperature have

been followed by an increase in CO2. Now, it is a rise in CO2 causing the temperature to rise."

WarmingClimate change – the facts

Met Office 2009

Over the last 800,000 years, rises in global temperatures have preceded increased concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere by up to 800 years

Global temperatures fell from 1940 to 1979 whilst CO2 emissions escalated throughout the post-war industrial boom

C02 concentration in the atmosphere has been much higher (000's of parts per million)

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CO2

• 95% of greenhouse gas is water vapour• CO2's contribution to greenhouse effect is < 3%

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html

• Any warming influence is logarithmic – the first 20ppm has the greatest effect by far

• At current levels (390 parts per million) additional CO2 will have little effect

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Feedbacks

• Predictions based on 200% to 300% positive feedback from increased CO2 concentrations

• Most climate models rely on this false premise• Actual observations indicate mildly negative

feedbacksOn the Diagnosis of Feedback in the Presence of Unknown Radiative Forcing by Dr. Roy W. Spencer and William D. Braswellhttp://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/Spencer-Braswell-JGR-2010.pdf

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Temperature data

• Surface temperature records – Urban Heating Influence, lack of global uniformity, unintended consequencesAnthony Watts – http://wattsupwiththat.com/

• Proxy data: ice cores, tree rings, fossilised pollen and coral reefs

• Weather Balloons• Satellites• History

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History• Chaucer wrote of vineyards in England• Medieval Warm Period - temperatures c.1-3ºC

higher than today• Roman and Holocene warm periods• Vikings settled Greenland c. 980 to 1400 AD• Little Ice Age – Maunder and Dalton minima• Samuel Pepys wrote in 1683 of the Great Frost

Fair on the River Thames – frozen for several weeks

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IPCC Report 1991

H.H. Lamb graph of temperature over the past 1,000 years

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IPCC 2001 Report

IPCC hockey stick graph of the past 1,000 years

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Debunking the hockey stick• McIntyre and McKitrick

http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/trc.html

• Edward J Wegman, George Mason University, David W Scott, Rice University, and Yasmin H Said, The John Hopkins Universityhttp://republicans.energycommerce.house.gov/108/home/07142006_Wegman_Report.pdf

• McShane and Wyner 2010http://www.e-publications.org/ims/submission/index.php/AOAS/user/submissionFile/6695?confirm=63ebfddf

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Climategate – November 2009 68Mb of documents and emails from the University of

East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) posted on the internet

Confirmation of the isolated and politicised paleoclimatic community

Collusion, data and program manipulation HARRY_READ_ME.txt Hide the decline (Mike's Nature trick)

CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7 18

Climategate – three inquiries 2010 UK Parliament Science and Technology Committee – rushed

(impending general election), superficial and biased Oxbrough – not independent of UEA, characterised as a

whitewash by Graham Stringer MP Muir Russell – not independent and described as inadequate by

Graham Stringer MP

No-one investigated the science supporting the AGW theory

John P Costella - http://assassinationscience.com/climategate/

CRU evidence: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmsctech/387/387ii.pdf

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Extreme weather events

Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Back to 1900 - Chris Landsea, of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/landsea-eos-may012007.pdf

Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change? - Laurens M Bouwer of the Institute for Environmental Studies, Amsterdamhttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010BAMS3092.1

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Polar Ice Antarctic Temperature and Sea Ice Trends over the

Last Century - George Taylor, CCM http://icecap.us/images/uploads/antarctica_white_paper_final.pdf

Arctic temperatures above 80°N are the lowest in six yearshttp://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/23/arctic-temperatures-above-80%C2%B0n-are-the-lowest-in-six-years/

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Retreating glaciersGlacial retreat in the Himalayas has been

overstated by the IPCCIn the 1940s Swiss glaciers were melting faster

than at presentReduction in glacier mass is ascribed to solar

radiation rather than man-made global warminghttp://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL040789.shtml

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Lack of Evidence

• No discernible greenhouse effect in troposphere• No evidence that CO2 is driving temperature• Current temperatures within the bounds of natural

variability• No evidence that global warming is causing

extreme weather events• Arctic polar ice growing again, evidence of cooling

in the Antarctic -1966 to 2000• Glacier retreat ascribed to solar radiation

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Natural cycles and global temperature

Solar cycles - sunspots, solar magnetism, inverse correlation between cycle length and global temperatureshttp://www.davidarchibald.info/papers/Archibald2009E&E.pdf

Galactic Cosmic Rays – influence cloud formationhttp://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/1181073/

Albedo – reduction in low level reflective cloud cover accounts for recent warming from 1980 to 2000

Pacific, Atlantic, Arctic ocean decadal and multi-decadal oscillations distribute heat from the tropics. Evidence of cycles and time lags

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Pacific decadal oscillation

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“Is the science is settled?”

Senate Minority Report – over 700 scientists publicly dissenthttp://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Files.View&FileStore_id=83947f5d-d84a-4a84-ad5d-6e2d71db52d9

The IPCC can't count its "expert scientists": Author and reviewer numbers are wrong - John McLean 2009http://mclean.ch/climate/docs/IPCC_numbers.pdf

Copenhagen Climate Change Challenge – 166 expert climate scientists write an open letter to UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki Moonhttp://www.copenhagenclimatechallenge.org/

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Structural incentives to prove and promote AGW

IPCC exists to promote the AGW hypothesis Paleoclimatic community and climate models drive the IPCC

agenda – receive funding to support AGW hypothesis $50+billion spent by successive US governments on man-made

global warming agenda in since 1989 Carbon trading worth c. $140 billion in 2008 US “Cap and Trade” legislation could boost it to $1trillion+ Carbon industry will evaporate if AGW hypothesis is abandoned

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21st Century Carbon Caper

Investment Managers & Advisers

InvestorsCarbon Credits

Flawed Climate Models and Hockey Sticks

Solar Cycles, Galactic Cosmic Rays, Albedo Fluctuation, Oceanic Oscillations

Carbon trading industry Politicians and Media

IPCC, pro-AGW warming scientists

Informed Sceptics

Objective scientists

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Further researchwww.outersite.org

http://www.greatglobalwarmingswindle.co.uk/

http://www.friendsofscience.org/index.php?id=394

http://climateaudit.org/

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/12697/64796?RS_show_page=7

“Chill, A Reassessment of Global Warming”http://www.ethos-uk.com/publishing.html

Beware of wikipedia – climate information has been systematically corruptedhttp://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2009/12/19/lawrence-solomon-wikipedia-s-climate-doctor.aspx

Michael Mann and co-conspirators (their term, not mine – Tom Wigley, former Director of CRU, in an email to Michael Mann) have a pro-AGW site:www.realclimate.org

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Roy Spencer – monthly global temperature anomolies

http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

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21st Century Carbon Caper

• No evidence that CO2 is driving temperature• Recent warming not unprecedented• Solar cycles and Oceanic oscillations drive

temperature• No scientific consensus• Structural incentives to obscure the truth• Conduct fundamental research