IS BANGLADESH

SELF-SUFFICIENT IN

FOOD (GRAIN) PRODUCTION?

Food Security in Bangladesh

Pieter Dijkhuizen

Country Director

WFP Bangladesh

World Food 1Programme

Reply to this question is

important for strategy of

WFP assistance to Bangladesh:

Food self-sufficiency:

withdrawal or local purchase

World FoodProgramme 2

Considerable progress has been made in last 25

years:

From

“Bottomless Basket”

to discussion:

“Is Bangladesh Self-Sufficient?

In the 70’s : up to 20% of food provided by food aid

In 2000: food aid amounts to 2% of food supply

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Conflicting Information GOB claims self-sufficiency:

Food grain availability in 2000: 25.5 m MT

corresponds with 196 kg/cap/yr or

1900 kcal/cap/day

Newspapers report farm prices for rice

depressed due to lack of demand

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HKI reports wide-spread serious

malnutrition:

Women almost 50% have BMI<18.5*;

45% Anaemic; 25% Vit-A deficient

Children <5 yrs:

55% Stunted*, Underweight, Anaemic

25% Vit-A deficient

* Indicating Chronic Under nutrition

World FoodProgramme 5

Food availability in 2000/01 (GOB)

( m MT Food grains)

Rice Wheat Total

Net local production* 22.5 1.5 24.0

Commercial imports 0.5 0.5 1.0

Food aid import 0.5 0.5

---------------------------

23.0 2.5 25.5

* 10% seeds and losses subtracted

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Food Requirement

• GOB assumes food grain requirement of

454 g/cap/day (1 lb)

• Total net food grain requirement

for Bangladesh therefore:

454 g x 365 days x 130 m people = 21.5 m MT

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With this requirement of 21.5 m MT

Bangladesh already self-sufficient with reported

local rice production of 22.5 m MT.

Questions:

• Why still (commercial) import?

• What happens with surplus?

• Why still such malnutrition?

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Considering physiological needs and socio-

economic conditions FAO distinguishes 3

levels of food requirements:

1. Emergency level – 1800 kcal/cap/day

2. Requirement level – 2120 kcal/cap/day

3. Recommended level – 2400 kcal/cap/day

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Recommended level (2400 kcal/day)

takes into account:

Composition population

Size individuals

Physical activity level

Climate

Type of diet

Disease level

Distribution inequality

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FAO food balance sheet for BGD and other

information indicates that around 75% of

energy in diet derived from food grains

(90% rice/10% wheat)

Accepting the 2400 kcal recommended diet and

75% food grain contribution, the food grain

requirement will be:

0.75 x 2400/357* = 504 g/cap/day

* Nutritional value 90% rice/10% wheat diet

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Total needs-based food grain requirement:

504 g x 365 days x 130 m people = 23.9 m MT

This amount coincides with claimed local food grain

production (24.0 m)

However availability (25.5 m MT) still exceeds requirement

Questions:

Still 1 m MT surplusₛ

Wide spread malnutrition unexplainedₛ

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Consumption Surveys: 1999 poverty monitoring survey (BBS)

2000 household income and expenditure survey (BBS)

outcome:

45% population (60 m) : absolute poverty

(food intake <2122 kcal/day)

20% population (26 m): hard-core poverty

(food intake <1805 kcal/day)

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Food Intake (g/day):

FOOD ITEM PMS HHI & ES

FOODGRAIN 477* 476*

POTATO 64 55

VEGETABLES 149 156

MILK & MP 32 30

MEAT PEF 65 57

PULSES 24 16

OTHERS 115 103

--------------------------------------

926 893

* Represents 75% of energy value diet

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According Consumption Surveys:

Total food grain consumption

477 g x 365 days x 130m people = 22.6 m MT

= “true” availability

“Real” requirement : 23.9 m MT

Deficit between requirement and availability:

23.9 – 22.6= 1.3 m MT

Demand lower than requirement due to lack of

purchasing power

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“Realistic” local production:

22.6 m MT (consumption) – 1.5 m MT (imports)

= 21.1 m MT

Gap between “real” requirement and “realistic”

local production : 23.9 - 21.1 = 2.8 m MT

Deficit between requirement and availability:

23.9 – 22.6= 1.3 m MT

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Summary

Consumption = availability = 22.6 m MT food grain

Local production overestimated (losses too low)

‘Realistic’ net local production: 22.6 – 1.5 = 21.1 m MT (not 24.0)

‘Real’ requirement estimated at 23.9 m MT (not 21.5)

Gap requirement – local production: 23.9 – 21.1 = 2.8 m MT (12.7%)

Gap requirement – availability: 23.9 – 22.6 = 1.3 m MT

Above scenario explains importation needs and malnutrition

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Conclusion

Despite commercial imports and food aid still

considerable food deficit (1.3 m MT food grains):

due to lack of purchasing power

Food grain self-sufficiency not yet achieved

For immediate future still need for (imported) food aid

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What is the perspective for food(grain)

self-sufficiency of Bangladesh?

Detailed information from poverty monitoring

survey provides some insights

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Poverty Monitoring Survey: Intake Data (g/day)

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ITEM ALL POOR NON-POOR FAOFBS

FOODGRAIN 477* 439* 504* 518

POTATO 64 52 72 36

VEGETABLES 149 122 169 33

MILK & MP 32 12 47 41

MEAT PEF 65 33 89 39

PULSES 24 19 29 14

OTHERS 115 65 152 71

TOTAL 926 741 1060 753

KCAL

PROTEIN G

FAT G* Respectively 75%, 80%, 70%

2200

63

-

Energy

1900

-

-

Value

2500

-

-

Diet

2200

48

20

PMS/FAO-FBS Generic Developing Country

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ITEM PMS/N-P IMPORT/EXPORT FAOFBS-GDC

FOODGRAIN 504 15/- 455

POTATO 72 1/- 167

VEGETABLES 169 5/- 253

MILK&MP 47 16/- 129

MEAT & PEF 89 1/ 4 135

PULSES 29 32/- 21

OTHER (Fr Fa Su.) 152 Fa 90/-

Su 50/-

326

1060 1487

KCAL 2500

PROT G 63

FAT G 20

2684

69

62

Discussion 1: Diet Bangladeshi particular:

High rice demand

Low fat use

Large unmet demand for

Rice

Vegetables/fruit

Meat/fish/milk

Importation

Food grain

Milk

Fat

Sugar

World FoodProgramme 22

Discussion 2:

Food grain component of diet high;

expected to decrease with increase affluence population

Rice production has growth potential:

local paddy yield 3.6 MT/Ha,

surrounding countries 5.0 MT/Ha (40% up)

Decreased rice area would make room for foods now

imported

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Discussion 3:

Food aid to bridge food gap of ultra-poor:

(together with development package)

Local production need to be stimulated: role for

GOB agricultural price policies

Only limited local purchases food aid possible now;

large scale purchases will interfere with market price

World FoodProgramme 24

Food Aid 2002

WFP Multilateral 160.000 MT

Bilateral Australia 50.000 MT

Bilateral EEC 30.000 MT

Sub-total WFP 240.000 MT

Canada Bilateral 75.000 MT

USAID Bilateral 180.000 MT

495.000 MT

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Thank YouThank You

World FoodProgramme