Quo Vadis?Run new version of Pythagoras with data on 8
population segmentsPerform sensitivity analysis on cultural data
variables (using Design of Experiments)Solicit feedback from
cultural SMEs on Pythagoras results
Good Afternoon!..
Describe picture.Shown here are the purpose of this presentation
and the goal of the Irregular Warfare Project.
My focus will be on . Short.Traditional combat analysis
approachVIV, CASTFOREM, Combat XXI, spreadsheets
Look at force-on-force attrition, logistics, C2This is a map of
Colombia and within the circled area are two provinces on the
Pacific coast. The primary city in this area is Buenaventura, a
seaport which is a predominant thru-way for drug traffic. Although
it has a small upper class and a growing middle class, Buenaventura
is populated mainly by urban poor and displaced persons who have
been driven from their villages by the insurgency and crime that is
gripping Columbia.
The two key players in the insurgency are 1) the insurgents, the
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), and 2) the
counterinsurgents, the Government of Colombia (GoC). Other critical
players are the militias, the drug traffickers, the Colombian Army
and the police. All have a presence in Buenaventura. It is a
fomenting hot bed with a crime rate many times higher than New York
City.
In our problem scenario, a tsunami has struck the area indicated
in red on the map, destroying much of Buenaventura.
A Marine Air-Ground Task Force (MAGTF) has been sent to the area
as part of a Joint, Combined, Interagency Task Force at the request
of the GoC with the mission as shown here.
The MAGTF Staff is considering the two courses of action shown
on the slide.This is a map of Colombia and within the circled area
are two provinces on the Pacific coast. The primary city in this
area is Buenaventura, a seaport which is a predominant thru-way for
drug traffic. Although it has a small upper class and a growing
middle class, Buenaventura is populated mainly by urban poor and
displaced persons who have been driven from their villages by the
insurgency and crime that is gripping Columbia.
The two key players in the insurgency are 1) the insurgents, the
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), and 2) the
counterinsurgents, the Government of Colombia (GoC). Other critical
players are the militias, the drug traffickers, the Colombian Army
and the police. All have a presence in Buenaventura. It is a
fomenting hot bed with a crime rate many times higher than New York
City.
In our problem scenario, a tsunami has struck the area indicated
in red on the map, destroying much of Buenaventura.
A Marine Air-Ground Task Force (MAGTF) has been sent to the area
as part of a Joint, Combined, Interagency Task Force at the request
of the GoC with the mission as shown here.
The MAGTF Staff is considering the two courses of action shown
on the slide.Our interviewer, LT Robin Marling, engaged the SMEs in
conversation while including questions like the one shown here.
After a while, using a laptop, she showed the SME a pie chart
similar to the one shown here. The colors go from red, representing
behaviors directly supporting the FARC, to blue, representing
behaviors directly supporting the GoC. She then adjusted the chart
to suit the SME.The pie chart shown here represents the initial
behavioral of the Urban Poor population segment in the Buenaventura
area, as given to us by the SMEs.This was done for each population
segment.When the SME was satisfied with the distribution of
behaviors as represented by the pie chartit was not difficult to
back out the quantitative data as shown here. These percentages are
input to the Pythagoras agent-based simulation environment.Markov
transition matrices like this one. Each cell represents the
probability that people in the Urban Poor population segment that
are currently exhibiting row behavior will change their actions to
column behavior. The rows, of course, sum to 1.0 (100%).The cells
on the diagonal are coded blue and show that during relatively
short periods of time there is not much to expect in changes of
behavior. Nevertheless, there is behavioral change over time and
the cells coded in yellow indicate values greater than 0.01
(0.1%).Notice that cells above the diagonal indicate a shift in
behavior patterns towards the GoC ( a shift to the right) whereas
cells below the diagonal indicate a shift towards the FARC (a shift
to the left). This matrix is input to the Pythagoras agent-based
simulation environment. Pythagoras does not carry out Markov matrix
computations but uses the values to represent the dynamic sidedness
of the agents as it interacts with events and other agents. Dr
Osgoods Semantic Differential offers a method that can allow easier
interviewing of subject matter experts.When we normalize the second
matrix so that the row values sum to one, we obtain the bottom
matrix, another Markov matrix that displays new Urban Poor behavior
patterns reflecting the impact of the MAGTF establishing itself
ashore.
Notice from the yellow-coded cells in the bottom matrix that the
shift in behavior is towards the GoC side of the spectrum.
This matrix is input to the Pythagoras agent-based simulation
environment.
The procedure shown on this slide is the same as on the MAGTF
impact slide. Notice that the 0.16 value from the previous slide is
in the Right block. Its absolute value would be in the Left block
if it were negative. The value in the remaining block is always
0.05.
The bottom matrix represents the Urban Poor behavior tendencies
after applying the interactive influence of the Urban Middle Class.
It displays a behavioral shift towards the GoC (as evidenced by
increases in values in the matrix above the diagonal) and is input
to the Pythagoras agent-based simulation environment.
There is still much to learn from running the abbreviated four
population segment simulation, but we are looking forward to
running the entire eight population segment simulation and
analyzing those results.
