IRP Workshop - CVPS

February 12, 2007

Power Supply Issues

HQ/VY Contracts Terminate 2012-2016 Climate Change and CO2 Emissions Resource Portfolio Factors

– Diversity– Renewable– Stable or Predictable Prices– Nuclear vs No Nuclear– Small / In-state vs Large Imports

Power Supply Initiatives

Act 61– Efficiency– SPEED– CHP– Public Involvement Process

Vermont Generation Feasibility New England Market Changes (FCM) Distributed Utility Planning Renewable Portfolio Standards

2007 CVPS IRP

Reiteration of the 2003 Decision Analysis Portfolio risk management Multi-Attribute Trade-off Analysis

– Price (NPV and variability)– Resource Attributes ?

Size Location CO2 (RGGI) Renewable

IRP Analyses Can Inform the Public Involvement Process

GMP 2007 IRP Process

Follow- up to 2003 Decision Analysis Scenario Evaluation of Six Resource Portfolios Decision Analysis to Refine Scenario Evaluations Stress testing Best Portfolios to support contingency planning Multi-Attributes Trade-off Analysis for Decision Making

– Revenue Requirements (NPV and variability)– Other Portfolio Attributes

Environmental Impacts Financial Impacts Resource Locations Fossil fuel dependency Resource Plan Flexibility

IRP information needs will be used to inform the Public Involvement process

Multi-Attribute Demonstration

Parameter Input Portfolio Mix

   

ResourceCost- S

Cost-U

CO2

CO2 C&T

Aesthetic

Market

Market /

DSM

CC / GT / DSM

Generation Mix

Renewable / DSM

   

CCGT-NG 1.1 1.1 1.2   1.25     0.7    

GT-Oil 1.1 1.1 1.5   1.25     0.1 0.1  

CoalGas 1.25 1.25 0.9   1.25       0.3  

CoalGas-Seq CO2 1.75 1.75 0   1.25       0  

Wind-Large 1.5 1.5 0   5       0.2 0.4

Wind-Small 2 2 0   2       0.2 0.2

Market Cap 1 1 2   1 0.1 0.1      

Market Energy 1 1 1   1 0.9 0.7      

DSM -1 3 0   0   0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

PV 3 3 0   0.5         0.2

1 1 1 1 1

Portfolios

Market

Market / DSM

CC / GT / DSM

Generation Mix

Renewable / DSM

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0 0.5 1 1.5

Cost

CO

2

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%M

arket

Mar

ket

/

DS

M

CC

/ G

T /

DS

M

Gen

eratio

n

Mix

Ren

ew

abl

e

/ DS

M

Portfolio MixPV

DSM

Market Energy

Market Cap

Wind-Small

Wind-Large

CoalGas-Seq CO2

CoalGas

GT-Oil

CCGT-NG