Irish Water Technical Report on Introduction of Specific Usage ...€¦ · 2 | Irish Water | Specific Usage Prohibitions National Public Water Supply 2. Technical Justification for

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Irish Water –

Technical Report on Introduction of Specific Usage Prohibitions in All Areas Served via the National Public Water Supply

Under Section 56(16) of the Water Services Act 2007 (S.I. 30 2007) and Water Services Act 2007 (Commencement) Order 2007 (S.I. No. 528 of 2008), art. 2

5th June 2020

http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/2008/en/si/0528.html

1 | Irish Water | Specific Usage Prohibitions National Public Water Supply

1. Note of Technical Expertise

Angela Ryan MSC BEng (Hons) C. Eng. MIEI

I am a Water Resource Specialist, working within the Asset Management

Section of Irish Water. I am a Civil Engineer by training and hold a BEng (Hons)

in Civil Engineering and an MSc in Civil and Environmental Engineering. I am a

Chartered Engineer and Member of Engineers Ireland. I am the Project

Manager for Irish Water’s National Water Resources Plan (NWRP).

Miriam Grant MEng BEng (Hons)

I have 7 years experience covering both water operations and planning with

recent experience covering analysis of water supply and demand balance and

projections for schemes across the country, as part of preparation of the NWRP.

I am a Civil Engineer by training and hold a BEng (Hons) in Civil Engineering

and a Masters in Engineering Management. I am a Member of Engineers

Ireland.

The NWRP will develop a roadmap for Irish Water to ensure supply demand

balance for all of our 535 Water Resource Zones (WRZs) nationally, and will

ensure that we can deliver our statutory obligations in terms of a safe reliable

water supply with sufficient provisions for growth, in line with national

government policy. The project includes source yield assessments, resource

modelling, treatment capacity, water resource planning, growth assessment,

supply demand scenario analysis and target headroom analysis for all water

resource zones nationally, which, in turn, allows Irish Water to identify where

any serious deficiencies of water available for distribution exist or are likely to

exist. The NWRP will also enable for drought and critical period planning.

As part of the work of assessing each WRZ supply / demand balance, the lack

of resilience in many of our schemes currently has been confirmed. This is

especially true for times of drought, when increased demands, combined with

reduced available raw water results, without restrictions, in a failure to meet the

daily water needs in full. It is a key objective of the NWRP to develop strategies

to eliminate these deficits. However, it will take several investment cycles to fully

implement the Plan, so that in the interim, Irish Water must manage its

resources to mitigate the impact of water shortages on communities, customers

and economic life.

Irish Water is aware of the significant impact that water usage

prohibitions/restrictions can have on both domestic and commercial life. On that

basis Irish Water only moves to considering the imposition of such

prohibitions/restrictions when, based on an extensive technical review of

available data, the situation cannot be properly managed in the absence of such

prohibitions/restrictions.


2. Technical Justification for Specific Use Prohibitions Due to the on-going dry conditions in March and April 2020, followed by high

temperatures and corresponding drought conditions being experienced across

the entirety of the country, since early May 2020, Irish Water has experienced a

number of difficulties in relation to shortages in the public water supply.

The volume of water available for abstraction within water bodies nationally has

reduced and continues to reduce significantly, as a result of reduced natural

flowrates. At the same time demand for water has simultaneously increased

significantly over this period.

As access to a continuous water supply has a direct impact on public health,

Irish Water must ensure that it can maintain supplies all across the Country

during the current weather conditions and until the waterbodies from which we

abstract have had time to replenish.

In 2018 Irish Water introduced a number of Specific Usage Prohibitions across

the Country. The Specific Usage Prohibitions and restrictions, which were

introduced by Irish Water during the drought of 2018, were essential to and

instrumental in reducing water demand nationally and, in my view, prevented

large scale water outages that could have impacted on up to 50% of the

Domestic and Non-domestic water users reliant on the public water supply. To

date in 2020, our review of the statistics and data shows that the current

drought conditions are, in fact, more severe than those experienced in 2018 at

this early stage of the summer period. There has been sustained dry weather

through April and May 2020, and precipitation (rainfall) has been far below

normal for this time of year (and far in excess of what was experienced in April

and May 2018).

Although there has been some rainfall in the North West of the country in recent

days, low rainfall and high soil moisture deficits continue to be experienced

across country. The weather outlook for the next month is also predicted to be

drier than normal for this time of year. On that basis soil moisture deficits are

likely to increase in many areas of the country. Irish Water considers that further

prolonged dry spells will further deplete levels within the water bodies from

which we abstract, some of which are already trending towards critically low

levels. In order to maximise scarce resources for critical social and economic

needs, Irish Water now needs to take action to reduce demand for water across

all the public water supplies.

It is therefore necessary to immediately introduce a Specific Usage Prohibition

Order (to prohibit certain water usage across the Country). In my view this

prohibition order should, given the data currently available to me, be effective

for six weeks from the date it is made and should apply to all the public water

supplies nationally, across all regions. This Specific Use prohibition will assist

Irish Water to appropriately manage water supplies on a national basis so as to

ensure that the rate at which raw water sources are being depleted is controlled

until there is sufficient rainfall to replenish them.


The technical justification for the prohibition is that we are experiencing

drought and extreme weather conditions across the Country, evidencing a

critical decrease in water availability and/or increased demand for water. If

left unchecked, this will result in a risk of failure of the water supply

network. Irish Water must be especially cognisant of risk to water supplies

later in the year, due to the current prolonged period of dry weather so

early in the summer season. We must prudently manage that risk by

conserving and reducing water consumption now to ensure continuity of

supply across the Country through summer and autumn. Irish Water must

therefore take a precautionary approach in formulating the planned

prohibition and/or restriction of water supplies. In considering the

proposed restriction and/or prohibition and its duration, Irish Water must

and has considered the potential hardship to and economic impacts on

domestic and commercial water users.


Figure 1- Irish Water Public Water Supply Network including Key Settlements

2.1 Evidence of Drought/Extreme Weather

Rainfall levels have been significantly below average for March, April and May,

across the country and Met Éireann Monthly Forecast predicts that precipitation

is likely to be less than normal over the coming weeks particularly in the

Southern and Eastern region. Whilst precipitation in the northwest might


experience nearer to normal levels in the coming weeks, due to the prolonged

dry spell in spring 2020, it may take many weeks to replenish the water sources

in that area.

Met Éireann has defined drought in Ireland as fifteen consecutive days with less

than 0.2mm of rainfall. On the 22nd of April 2020 Met Éireann declared an

absolute drought on the island of Ireland. There were 37 dry periods in Ireland

during 2020, between Wednesday 18th March and the 19th May 2020. Of these,

27 were dry spells at 22 stations, eight were absolute droughts at eight stations

and two were partial droughts at two stations. The areas of partial and absolute

drought occurred in Dublin and Meath.

2.1.1 Met Éireann Data

Met Éireann Data published data to the end of May, highlights the significant

reductions in rainfall over the months of March, April and May 2020. Many

gauging stations are showing less than 50% of the annual average rainfall for

May. By way of representative example, the data from the gauges in Phoenix

Park, Mullingar, Foulkesmills in Wexford, Markree Castle in Sligo, and Roches

Point in Cork are shown in Figures 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.

Figure 2 – Rainfall Phoenix Park

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

Rain

fall

(m

m)

Rainfall - Phoenix Park Gauge


Figure 3 – Rainfall Mullingar

Figure 4 – Rainfall Foulkesmills

-100.0

-50.0

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0R

ain

fall

(m

m)

Rainfall - Mullingar Gauge

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Rain

fall

(m

m)

Rainfall - Foulkesmills Gauge


Figure 5 – Rainfall Markree Castle

Figure 6 – Roches Point

This review of Met Éireann rainfall data alone indicates significantly low rainfall

levels across the country in recent months. This will cause a range of difficulties

across our national supplies including, water availability, difficulty in getting

water into treatment facilities, difficulty in treating water due to changes to raw

water characteristics, and insufficient supply to meet increasing demand.

-100.0

-50.0

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0R

ain

fall

(m

m)

Rainfall - Markree Castle Gauge

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

Rain

fall

(m

m)

Rainfall - Roches Point Gauge


2.1.2 Drought Indicators

Irish Water has developed a draft Drought Management Plan that uses

statistical indicators to track current weather conditions in relation to drought.

Using these indicators, we identify triggers for action as we enter drought

periods and develop potential actions that can be used to maintain water supply

(where possible) during these conditions.

Irish Water’s indicator uses the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) method,

advocated by the World Meteorological Organisation. This indicator has been

developed for representative sites across the country where we compare rainfall

accumulations to the long-term average.

SPI is a normalised index representing the probability of occurrence of an

observed rainfall amount when compared with the data for long-term reference

period at a given location. Negative SPI values represent a rainfall deficit,

moving towards drought, whereas positive SPI values indicate rainfall surplus.

The larger the negative SPI values, the more serious the measured event is.

SPI is produced for 1, 3, 6 and 12 month (denoted SPI 1, 3, 6, 12 respectively)

accumulations. The draft Irish Water Drought Management Plan proposes the

following definitions, outlined in Table 1, for drought stages rated to SPI.

A negative SPI 1 value means that at that location, for the previous

month, there has been less rainfall than normal when compared to the

same month, when all historical rainfall records are considered. The lower

the value (-1, -2, -3) the drier the conditions. A single month of dry

weather would only impact some of our sources, such as shallow springs

or rivers where levels drop very quickly when there is no rain

(predominantly flashy upland catchments).

A negative SPI 3 value means that at that location, for the previous three

months, there has been less rainfall than normal when compared to the

same three months when all historical rainfall records are considered. The

lower the value (-1, -2, -3) the drier the conditions. Three months of dry

weather would have an impact on the majority of our water sources,

including river, lake and some groundwater abstractions.

A negative SPI 6 value means that at that location, for the previous six

months, there has been less rainfall than normal when compared to the

same six months when all historical rainfall records are considered. The

lower the value (-1, -2, -3) the drier the conditions. Six months of dry

weather would have an impact on the all of our water sources, including

river, lake, reservoirs, impoundments and groundwater abstractions. A

negative SPI 6 usually occurs when a dry summer follows a dry spring.

A negative SPI 12 value means that at that location, for the previous

twelve months, there has been less rainfall than normal when compared

to the historical record.


Table 1 – Drought Indicators

Drought Stage Trigger

Normal SPI above -1.

Potential Drought SPI of -1 or below

Drought SPI of -1.5 or below

Emergency (Severe Drought) SPI of -2 or below

Post-Drought Recovery in supply position and easing of environmental stress

As part of our technical review as to whether a Specific Use Prohibitions Order

may now be required, the April 1 month SPI index was developed for all

locations relating to the 750 water treatment plants on the public water supply.

This indicator would normally be used to flag issues that may arise on flashy

river sources where water levels are immediately responsive to rainfall, but at

present it is the key indicator for current conditions as the 3 month SPI indicator

is currently masked by heavy rainfall in February.

During April, 10% of the 750 Water Treatment Plants that make up the public

water supply, were located in areas classified as in drought or emergency

drought using the 1 month SPI Index, as shown in Table 2 and Figure 7. In

addition 11% were classified as potential drought.

Table 2 – April 2020 Drought Indicators National WTPs

Drought Stage Trigger No. WTPs %

Normal SPI above -1 589 79%

Potential Drought SPI of -1 or below 86 11%

Drought SPI of -1.5 or below 49 7%

Emergency (Severe Drought) SPI of -2 or below 26 3%

Figure 7 – April 2020 Drought Indicators National WTPs

Drought, 49 Emergency (Severe

Drought) , 26

Normal, 589

Potential Drought, 86


Over the month of May 2020 the indicators deteriorated significantly, with 50%

of WTPs falling into the “Drought” or “Emergency Severe Drought” categories,

as shown in Table 3 and Figure 8 based on early warning indicators. In addition,

a further 31% of the indicators fall into the ‘potential drought’ category. Indeed,

only 19% of the indicators on a national basis registered as normal. As such, it

is clear that the vast majority of the water supplies are indicating potential

drought conditions at present or there is a very real likelihood that they will

move into drought conditions.

Table 3– May 2020 Drought Indicators National WTPs

Drought Stage Trigger No. WTPs %

Normal SPI above -1 144 19%

Potential Drought SPI of -1 or below 232 31%

Drought SPI of -1.5 or below 225 30%

Emergency (Severe Drought) SPI of -2 or below 149 20%

Figure 8 – May 2020 Drought Indicators National WTPs

In the summer of 2018, Ireland experienced a severe drought and Irish Water

introduced a number of orders (referred to in this paper as ‘Specific Usage

Prohibitions’) under Section 56(16) of the Water Services Act 2007 (as

amended) prohibiting certain water usage. Comparing SPI 1 and 3 month index

for 2020 to 2018, gives an indication of the severity of the current situation

compared to the conditions that prevailed in 2018. Figure 9 outlines SPI 1 and

shows that May 2020 has been extremely dry across almost the whole country

compared to previous May months, and significantly drier than May 2018.

Drought, 225

Emergency (Severe

Drought) , 149

Normal, 144

Potential Drought, 232


Figure 9 – SPI 1 May 2020 and May 2018

Figure 10 outlines SPI 3 (March – May) highlighting severe to extremely dry

conditions across the country, particularly in the East. It is clear that in

comparison to 2018 conditions, 2020 has, to date, been significantly drier.



SPI 6 shown in in Figure 11 and shows relatively normal conditions over the

December to May 6-month period, as wet winters preceded the drier spring and

summer conditions in both of these years. However, wet winter conditions are

only of benefit to sources where there is high natural or artificial raw water

storage, and due to excess runoff or flood management during these periods,

retained reserves in storage (groundwater, lakes, and impoundments) are often

not sufficient to balance the drought impact later in the period. This means that

whilst SPI 6 at present shows normal conditions over the preceding 6 month

period it cannot be regarded as a good indicator of how our sources will perform

for the remainder of the summer and autumn if dry conditions continue. Again

the SPI 6 is worse than that recorded at for December to May 2018.

SPI 12 is outlined in Figure 12 and highlights how the previous 12 month

accumulation period shows the country has generally been wet and central/

western parts severely wet. This serves to flag the two extremes of wet winter

and dry spring/summer, but is not material to the present national water

resources deficit. This is because, nationally, we have few sources that can

withstand prolonged dry periods.




The changes in 1 month SPI index from April to May in Figure 13 shows the

increasingly dry conditions across the country, from April 2020 through May

2020.

Figure 13 – SPI 1 April and May 2020


The changes in 3 month SPI index from April 2020 to May 2020 in Figure 14

show the transition from a wet period in February 2020 to an exceptionally dry

period in May.

Figure 14 – SPI 3 April and May 2020

Summary: On review of Met Éireann forecasts and drought triggers

developed as part of the draft Drought Management Plan, evidence of

significant continued low rainfall compared to historical norms have been

identified across the country.

2.2 Supply Side Pressures

Irish Water abstracts raw water from over 1,200 individual water sources,

including lakes, rivers, streams, springs and groundwater aquifers. All of these

sources are reliant on sufficient rainfall for recharge. In warm weather, water is

consumed by plant transpiration (take-up for growth) and evaporation from open

surfaces. Our data shows that this combination, along with continuous daily

abstractions, has significantly depleted surface and groundwater sources.

Soil moisture deficit is defined as the amount of rain needed to bring the soil

moisture content back to field capacity. With the exception of the far south and

southwest, soil moisture deficits currently range between 50 and 80mm, as of

the 2nd June, and with little rainfall forecast for the coming week, deficits are

likely to increase further. A soil moisture deficit of 50 to 80mm means that when

it rains, the soil in that area will try to absorb the first 50 to 80 mm of rainfall,

before excess can run off or percolate through the land to recharge natural


water bodies (lakes, rivers and aquifers) and replenish the sources of water for

the Public Water Supply

Mean air temperature and soil temperatures have been above average over the

last week and are expected to rise further during the coming week. If these

conditions continue over the next month, the low levels of predicted rainfall will

fail to recharge the rivers, lakes and aquifers from which we abstract water for

the public water supply, worsening the situation. Figure 15, shows the soil

moisture deficit for the Island of Ireland on the 2nd of June 2020. The deficits are

largest in the east of the country, where substantial rainfalls would be needed to

compensate, before any significant runoff would be expected. The deficits in this

area are significantly greater than at this time in 2018.

Figure 15 – Soil Moisture Deficit – Met Éireann 2nd

June 2020

2.2.1 Surface Water and Ground Water Supplies

Irish Water’s surface water and ground water supplies are currently under

significant pressure on a national basis. The data and analysis detailed below

provides context to these issues.

For surface water abstractions (such as rivers and lakes) individual catchment

characteristics and regional climatic conditions give rise to a pattern of flows

that varies from location to location. In practice, this variation in flow is

documented using a graphical representation known as a Flow Duration Curve

(FDC). The FDC describes the percentage of time that observed flow in a river

is likely to equal or exceed a specific flow value. For example, the 95th

percentile flow, denoted Q95, is the flow rate equaled or exceeded 95% of the

time at that site.

Therefore, conditions above Q95 are indicative of the low flow condition that

would occur during a drought period, where abstraction levels may be

constrained.

Well Drained Soil Moisture Deficit Moderately Drained Soil Moisture Poorly Drained Soil Moisture Deficit


Technically, the Q95 flow is an important metric in terms of water supply and

wastewater discharge. This flow is used as the design basis for most of our

water treatment plants and to calculate assimilative capacity of water bodies to

cope with licensed wastewater discharges. As the flow in a river falls to the Q96

and the Q97 flows, the amount of water available for water supply reduces, and

the risk of environmental damage due to wastewater discharges increases.

Figure 16 outlines the number of sites, based on data from EPA/ LA and OPW

hydrometric stations, at or below the Q95 flow as of the 26th May 2020. This

shows that 22% of the river flows are deemed to be below the Q95 low flow

condition.

Figure 16 – River Flows (Source: EPA, OPW)

Figure 18 outlines the time series flows for the water bodies at these gauging

stations, represented in the map in Figure 17, across the country. On each

graph, the upper black line represents the maximum flow on record, for the


given site and the lower black line represent the minimum flow on record for that

time of the year. The light grey line represents the mean daily flows in 2018.

The red line represents the current mean daily flow. As can be seen, the

representative gauges are all trending downward, closer to the minimum level

recorded. Currently, all of the flows are cause for concern and in most cases are

already below the flows and water levels experienced in May 2018. This is likely

to continue to reduce further, if prolonged dry periods are experienced.

Figure 17 – Drought Reporting Flow Stations Surface Water


Figure 18 – Drought Reporting Flow Stations North West and East Midlands

The continued dry conditions are also significantly impacting groundwater

supplies across the country. Figure 20 shows the levels at a number of

representative borehole sites, represented in the map on Figure 19. On each

graph the upper black line represents the maximum level on record, for the

given site and the lower black line represents the minimum level on record for

that time of the year. The light grey line represents the daily level in 2018. The


red line represents the current level. As can be seen, the representative gauges

are all trending downward, following a wet period in February 2020. Currently,

all of the levels are cause for concern, and given that they are occurring at the

start of summer it is likely that they will deplete further. In most cases levels are

already below those experienced during the 2018 drought.

Figure 19 – Drought Reporting Groundwater Level Sites

Figure 20 – Drought Reporting Water Level for Groundwater Sites


In summary, our data shows that the water supplies sources (both surface water

and ground water) across all regions in the Country are under continued

pressure, due to the following:

Low precipitation and soil moisture deficits are effecting groundwater and

surface water recharge rates;

Due to Soil Moisture Deficits and the lowering water levels in rivers, lakes

and streams, it will, in our experience require significant immediate

rainfalls or normal rainfalls over several months for raw water sources to

recover and recharge to normal levels. No such rainfall is currently

predicted.

For groundwater supplies, as these water sources are slow to recover,

effects of the current drought or near drought conditions may impact

these sources for longer, potentially up to a 12 month period.

Many water bodies support multiple pressures (both abstractions &

discharges), including those for agricultural and other purposes such that

a focus on individual water schemes within particular regions does not

address the holistic environment of the waterbody

Lower flowrates in rivers and longer residence times in lakes imposes

increased environmental stress on water bodies, impacting the

assimilative capacity of these water bodies to cope with wastewater and

other discharges, with increased risks to the aquatic environment and

ecology

At present Irish Water is tracking Operational Performance of our supplies, in

order to see if they correspond to the drought indicators. At the end of May, six

sites in the south west of the country are so low that they have required to be

replenished via tankered water supplies. Conditions at a further 47 supplies

across Kerry, Galway, Laois, Tipperary, Kilkenny, Carlow, Donegal, Wicklow,

Cork, Limerick, Offaly, Wexford, Clare, Roscommon, Sligo, Waterford, and

Westmeath are deteriorating and are being continuously monitored by

operational staff. Based on similar try weather patterns in 2018, up to 180

supplies could be impacted within the next four weeks.

Figure 21 – Irish Water Drought Tracker


Also, as the 2020 dry weather period started one month earlier than in 2018, it

is anticipated that a greater number of supplies will be impacted this time

around if rainfall does not increase significantly. Due to seasonal rain patterns,

there is less potential for rainfall and source replenishment throughout the

summer. Therefore it is essential that we take a prudent approach with all of our

supplies at present in order to conserve supplies and ensure that we have

enough water in our sources to last until autumn.

I am aware that in order for a prohibition order to be made Irish water must form

the opinion that a serious deficiency of water available for distribution exists or

is likely to exist. In my view, and on the basis of my experience and the data

detailed in this report, it is clear that the criteria have been met on a national

basis. The data is clear that in Kerry, Galway, Laois, Tipperary, Kilkenny,

Carlow, Donegal, Wicklow, Cork, Limerick, Offaly, Wexford, Clare, Roscommon,

Sligo, Waterford, and Westmeath there is currently a serious deficiency of water

available for distribution. Further, and most significantly, the data also clearly

indicates that there is likely to exist a serious deficiency in water available for

distribution in the remainder of the Country, in the absence of the measures

outlined in this report or if weather conditions do not improve significantly (as

noted elsewhere in this report they are not expected to improve significantly). I

am satisfied, on that basis, that the measures outlined in this report should be

implemented on a national basis.

2.3 Increased Demand for Water

Demand for water across the Country is increasing as the dry weather

continues. As the public water supply consists of 535 discrete water supplies, as

part of this report we have chosen a sample of sites from around Ireland to

represent the fluctuations in demand across the dry period.

Consideration must also be given to the fact that non-domestic demand has

been suppressed by the restrictions imposed as a result of Covid-19. Therefore,

it is envisaged that demand will increase nationally over the coming weeks if

restrictions are lifted, as is currently predicted.

Figure 22 outlines the recent demand pattern in the Greater Dublin Area over

April 2020 and May 2020. As highlighted in the graph, demand peaks occur on

warm, sunny days. With this weather set to continue, it is likely that these

demand peaks will continue to increase.


Figure 22 – Greater Dublin Area Demand Profile

2.3.1 Regional Outlook – Southern Region

In the Southern Region, operations are reporting increasing water demand at a

number of supplies, including the large regional supplies for Clonakilty and

Newmarket, as follows:

Clonakilty Regional

Demand has been increasing steadily across the supply since March, with more

frequent peaking events. Figure 23 outlines the demand pattern for Clonakilty

from January to May. Further points to note include:

The full month daily average demand for May 2020 was 7.3ML/d

The daily average demand for the last week of May 2020 was 7.9Ml/d

Demand increased from 6.5ML/d at start of May to current demand of

8.0ML/d

Demand is approximately 0.5ML/d higher than this time last year

Large agricultural demand exists across the scheme and further

agricultural demand may switch to public watermains, as private wells dry

up

Tourism and holiday home occupancy is likely to increase as phased

lifting of Covid 19 restrictions continue (compressed holiday season in late

July/August likely to be a major peak)

In 2018 demand peaked at about 9.5ML/d which required significant

tankering and night time restrictions.


Figure 23 – Clonakilty Regional Demand January – May 2020

Newmarket Regional

Demand has increased steadily since the end of March, and peak events are

coinciding with weekends. Further points to note include:

Daily average demand over 3 months in 2020 (March to May inclusive)

was 7.8ML/d

Daily average over 3 months in 2019 (March to May inclusive) was

7.5ML/d

Demand increased from 8.2ML/d at start of May to current demand of

8.4ML/d

Demand is approximately 1.0ML/d higher than this time last year

Maximum average monthly outflow through full 2019 year was 7.8ML/d

Large agricultural demand exists across the scheme and further

agricultural demand may switch to public watermains, as private wells dry

up

Tourism and holiday home occupancy is likely to increase as phased

lifting of Covid 19 restrictions continue

In 2018 monthly average demand was about 9.0ML/d during June and

July which required night restrictions.

2.3.2 Regional Outlook – North West Region

In the Northwest Region, Irish Water Operations are reporting increasing water

demand at a number of supplies across Donegal, Roscommon, Sligo, Galway,

Mayo, Cavan and Monaghan.

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

7,000

7,050

7,100

7,150

7,200

7,250

7,300

7,350

January February March April May

Peaking Factor m³/day

Clonakilty (Jones Bridge) WTP Production Jan to May 2020

AverageMonthly…


Data on two of the large regional supplies for Buncrana in Donegal and

Tubbercurry in Sligo are summarised as follows:

Illies (Buncrana)

Demand has been increasing steadily across the supply since April, with more

frequent peaking events. Figure 24 outlines the demand pattern for Illies from

January to May 2020. Further points to note include:

The full month daily average demand for April 2020 was 11.7 Ml/d

The full month daily average demand for May 2020 was 11.8 Ml/d

Daily peaks of 10% are currently being encountered

Lough Talt (Tubbercurry)

Demand has been increasing steadily across the supply since April, with more

frequent peaking events. Figure 25 outlines the demand pattern for Lough Talt



The full month daily average demand for May 2020 was 7 Ml/d


0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

10,800

11,000

11,200

11,400

11,600

11,800

12,000

12,200

12,400


Peaking Factor m³/day Illies WTP Production Jan to May 2020

AverageMonthly…

Figure 24– Illies Regional Demand January – May 2020


2.3.3 Regional Outlook – Eastern and Midlands Region

In the Eastern and Midlands Region, Irish Water Operations are reporting

increasing water demand at a number of supplies across Meath, Westmeath,

Wicklow, Kildare, Dublin and Laois

Data on the large regional supply for Mullingar in Co. Westmeath is summarised

as follows:

Mullingar

Demand has been increasing steadily across the supply since March, with more

frequent peaking events. Figure 26 outlines the demand pattern for Mullingar



The full month daily average demand for May 2020 was 18.6 Ml/d


0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

6,200

6,300

6,400

6,500

6,600

6,700

6,800

6,900

7,000

7,100


Peaking Factor m³/day Lough Talt WTP Production Jan to May 2020

AverageMonthly…

Figure 25 – Lough Talt Regional Demand January – May 2020


In Irish Waters experience, the 2018 Order(s) and associated restrictions in

non-essential use achieved substantial reductions in peak water demand. By

way of example, in the Greater Dublin Water Supply Area, demand peaked at

615 million litres per day (MLD) in late June 2018, reduced to 580 MLD by 5th

July 2018 (after the 2018 prohibition was implemented) and below 550 MLD by

20th July 2018. These savings proved crucial in conserving water at

Pollaphouca Reservoir for the autumn period and enabled the treatment plants

to operate within design capacities, guaranteeing continuous safe supplies to

homes and businesses. In 2018, similar patterns in demand reduction were

observed in supplies across the rest of the Country when water usage

prohibitions were applied.

Summary: Evidence of the increases in demand during the current

drought period across the Country is clear and the effectiveness of the

Specific Use Prohibitions in 2018 in reducing demand and securing the

national water supply has been shown. It is now of extreme importance to

take steps to suppress water demand for non-essential purposes across

the country.

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

16,000

16,500

17,000

17,500

18,000

18,500

19,000


Peaking Factor m³/day Portloman WTP Production Jan to May 2020

AverageMonthly…

Figure 26– Mullingar Regional Demand January – May 2020


3. Outlook for Month Ahead

There is a strong indication of below average precipitation across the country,

until the 11th June. Further meteorological guidance to the 3rd July 2020,

suggests that, during that period, the vast majority of the country looks set to

have average or below average precipitation. As the dry spring has depleted

water sources across the country, with levels and flows observed well below

normal levels, even a return to average rainfall conditions in some localized

areas, will not eliminate risk of supply failure in these areas until the sources

have had time to recover.

Currently, there are 53 supplies (out of a total of 535) on Irish Water’s Drought

Tracker. A summary of the status at these sites is outlined in Table 4. This

tracker will be updated from operational reports daily and used to support

contingency planning throughout the critical period.

Table 4 – Irish Water Drought Tracker Summary (May 2020)

No Sites 2020 Current Status

1 Emergency Drought

13 Drought

34 Potential Drought

5 Normal Status

Summary: The weather and climatic outlook would suggest that the warm

and dry conditions are to remain across the vast majority of the country,

with above average temperatures expected in the coming weeks. Further

data towards the end of June 2020 does not suggest any significant

rainfall likely to reverse the deficits currently being recorded. This would

indicate that there are likely to be further deficiencies in our water

supplies, over the coming months and, as such, the status at sites across

the Country is likely to continue to deteriorate.

Based on the data available to Irish Water and the detailed analysis of

same, across the entire country there is an increasingly high risk of water

deficiency in a growing number of supplies across the country.

4. Actions by Irish Water to Address Supply Demand

Balance

Irish Water has already had to take a number of actions to maintain supply at

critical sites. These have included:

Strict water shut offs were introduced at 2 of our sites in April 2020 and

the daily shut off times further extended in mid-May. Night time water

restrictions have been in place in other areas since the beginning of May.

In areas where availability of raw water sources is continuing to fall or

failing to replenish, Irish Water is optimising and managing available

sources where possible to ensure continuity of supply


Irish Water is currently relying on tankering in water from other sites to

support some smaller local reservoirs at Carron WTP, Coalbrook WTP,

Commons WTP, Inis Oirr, Raheenleigh and Roberts Cove WTP.

Irish Water has had to implement temporary measures to ensure flow of

water into a number of our treatment plants, including Clonakilty WTP

which serves a population of 16,000.

Irish Water has conducted an extensive media campaign nationally, to

encourage consumers to conserve water. The campaign has involved

national and local radio, national television, social media and newspaper.

Active leakage reduction works are continuing in all regions as part of

Irish Water’s National Leakage Reduction Programme. This is a priority

programme to ensure maximum sustainable reduction in demand over the

next number of years. The Programme is focused on optimizing savings

through ‘Find & Fix’, pressure management and targeted pipe

rehabilitation, using our Leakage Management System (LMS) to support

daily management planning and oversight.

5. Additional Actions Required

In an effort to prevent or contain the extent of outages over the next weeks and

months, while dry weather conditions persists across the country, Irish Water

proposes to exercise its powers under Section 56 (16) of the Water Supply Act

2007, as amended, to make an order prohibiting certain water usage to cover

the entirety of the Country. The aim of such an order is to suppress demand –

thus saving water - through the prohibition of certain non- essential activities for

a specified period. It is proposed that the Order made under section 56 (16)

should provide for the prohibition of the following uses of water:

Use of water drawn through a hosepipe or similar apparatus for the purpose of –

i. watering a garden

ii. cleaning a private motor-vehicle using a domestic hosepipe

iii. cleaning a private leisure boat

iv. filling or maintaining a domestic swimming or paddling pool (except when

using hand held containers filled directly from a tap)

v. filling or maintaining a domestic pond (excluding fish ponds)

vi. filling or maintaining an ornamental fountain (with the exception of such

use for commercial purposes)

Vii. filling or replenishing an artificial pond, lake or similar application.

These are identical to the prohibitions that were introduced in 2018. In 2018

such prohibitions, along with further water restrictions, were shown to moderate

water demand from a peak of 15% above normal levels back to normal levels.

The specific use prohibitions involve the prohibition of certain non-essential

customer use, and will help to ensure that all customers receive continuity of

water supply over this difficult period, as far as possible.


These measures apply to both domestic and non-domestic users equally and

are a more equitable and controlled way of suppressing demand compared to

wide scale outages that tend to impact disproportionately certain areas of the

network, or vulnerable users who have difficulty sourcing water.

It is my opinion that the proposed Order should be effective from the date it is

made for a period of six weeks. The six week duration is reflective of the current

condition of the sources, where flows and levels are at the lower extremes of

historical conditions for this time of year, and the weather outlook which is to

remain settled or dry for the next four weeks. Even after this period if there is a

return to average rainfall conditions, it will take a considerable period for some

sources to replenish. On that basis it may be necessary to extend the proposed

Order (or extend the proposed Order for certain parts of the country).

In order to enforce these powers, as per section 56(17) of the Water Services

Act 2007, Irish Water must give public notice of its intention to make an order,

and specify the period for which the order will remain in force, by publishing an

advertisement in a newspaper and causing notification of the proposed Order to

be broadcasting on radio or television. Section 56(16) does not specify any

notice period. Having regard to this, a reasonable notice period will be given.

The notice period will give consideration to the extent of the drought problem,

the restriction of non-essential activities, and the fact that unless this action is

taken and demand is not reduced, it is inevitable that there will continue to be

serious deficiencies of water available for distribution, and potential widespread

supply failure and large outages.

Continuous monitoring of the situation will be undertaken by Irish Water, to

ensure the specific use prohibitions order is only enforced for as long as is

necessary.

6. Covid-19 Service Challenges

Suppressing demand through the prohibition of non essential activities is vital to

ensure access to a continuous water supply over the coming months. Safe,

clean and reliable water supply is essential for public health and in light of the

current Covid-19 pandemic, good personal hygiene practice has become critical

to protect ourselves and others from the virus, and must be our first priority.

Irish Water is working to ensure continued supply through:

continuous monitoring of issues across all our supplies,

ensuring tankering and alternative supplies can be mobilised, if required

ensuring critical work such as leakage repairs can continue whilst

adhering to recent public health guidelines

promoting conservation through our national campaign.

However, it is likely that demand for water will start to increase over the coming

weeks, as business re-open, and construction related activities begin to

increase following the expected relaxation of Covid 19 restrictions. This will in


turn generate additional pressure on our water supplies which, as noted

elsewhere in this report, is already under considerable strain.

7. Conclusion and Recommendation

The national public water supply is considered at significant risk due to enduring

drought and extreme weather conditions which is depleting existing water

supplies, whilst giving rise to unprecedented increases in demand for water.

Met Éireann forecasts no significant rainfall over the next five days, across the

country. Existing water sources are already under severe pressure with water

levels continuing to fall. Irish Water has carried out practical measures to

increase supply and to reduce demand for water through managing pressures in

the network. Also, a large media campaign on water conservation is ongoing, in

an effort to reduce demand voluntarily. However, the situation remains serious,

and Irish Water must take all reasonable steps to ensure that we can conserve

water to reduce risks to the public water supply.

In 2018, a very prolonged dry period from early May 2018 to end of July 2018

resulted in severe depletion of water resources. Historically low levels were

recorded in both surface and groundwater sources which were especially critical

in the east and south of the country. Irish Water supplies came under severe

pressures in these areas as did many private supplies.

Irish Water responded to that crisis by introducing a number of orders

prohibiting water usage across the country. Our review of the 2018 data shows

that these prohibitions helped to conserve vital raw water resources so that

supplies were largely maintained, albeit with pressure restrictions and some

night-time restrictions, supplemented by tankering of water supplies to various

small schemes as an emergency measure. The restrictions in 2018 were limited

to measures which could be regarded as non-essential, protecting the needs of

public health and economic activity. It is proposed that the order recommended

in this report should only cover the prohibition of the same uses as set out in the

2018 order(s). This is especially critical in 2020, when the Covid 19 emergency

requires high quality hygiene practice at home and in workplaces.

The 2018 prohibitions achieved substantial savings in demand.

Given:

the prevailing weather conditions as set out in this report,

increased demand; and

the pressure on water supplies sources across all of the country,

it is essential that a usage prohibition order is introduced now on a national

basis to ensure that we can mitigate against the ongoing risk of failure in the

public water supply later in the year.

It is proposed that the prohibition order should run for a period of six weeks from

the date it is made so as to seek to allow raw water sources to recover. If it is


possible to lift the proposed order (or lift the proposed order in certain areas of

the Country) before the specified period expires, having regard to prevailing

weather conditions, availability of water resources and reduction in demand, this

will be done. Equally, it may be necessary to extend the specified period for the

entire Country (or for specific areas of the Country) for a further period and/or to

other water uses, should the prevailing conditions exist.

Recommendations:

Seek board approval to immediately use powers under section

56(16) of the Water Services Act 2007 as amended to introduce

o An order to prohibit certain water usage for all areas across

the State, for a six week period as from when the order is

made. The non-essential high water use activities to be the

subject matter of the order are as specified in section 5

above.

To develop and advertise all necessary advertisements and

notifications under section 56(17).

To stipulate that these prohibitions be maintained for a period of 6

weeks as from the date of the order and that it is a criminal offence

under section 56(18) not to comply with an order served pursuant to

section 56(16).

To apply these prohibitions in all areas of the Public Water Supply

network.


Although there has been some rainfall, particularly in the North and Western

regions since then, due to significant soil moisture deficits, there has been no

improvement in water levels on waterbodies nationally. In fact, the current dry

weather conditions are developing into one of the most intense events

experienced over the 168 year rainfall record available for Ireland.

As detailed in the original technical justification documents for the Specific

Usage Prohibitions, Irish Water has developed a draft Drought Management

Plan that uses indicators to track current weather conditions in relation to

drought. Using these indicators we identify triggers for action as we enter

drought periods and develop potential actions that can be used to maintain

water supply (where possible) during these conditions.

Documents

Irish Water Technical Report on Introduction of Specific Usage ...€¦ · 2 | Irish Water | Specific Usage Prohibitions National Public Water Supply 2. Technical Justification for