Ireland in 2050.scribd Extract

8/6/2019 Ireland in 2050.scribd Extract

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Ireland In 2050


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Fail 142Fiig cstucti 142

8 InCUBaTorS oFaPaTHy, dISConneCTIonand delerIUM? oUrroadS, oUrCITIeSand oUrSUBUrBS 146

yu just gig t lovepig f stuff thtus t b f 146Citis sububs 150

accss t sics 153

Jbs cti i sububi 155Buiigs buiig thmss 155Jack and Jill 156

9 HealTH 158Mic iti: cuss csucs 162Hth wth 164

Wh wi ths mic pucts bcmig fm i th fist pc? 166Mic tuism th Iish hth sic 169HSe 2.0 170Happiness is . . . 173Is this all there is? 174

10 IneqUalITy and exClUSIon: HoMeleSS In

dUBlIn In 2050? 176 Wh s iuit mtt? 177Th is f th mi css 179

Wh th p i 2050? 180Hmss i dubi? 183digit iuit 185Hth iuit 186

a w i 1811 oUrGovernMenT: naTIonal, reGIonal

and loCal 189Th f tu c gmt 195


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Spsig c ctiism 199Justice for all 201Whith u cut sstm? Hw wi

tchg chg th G? 201Fift mius f pic 202

Baby monitor 204

12 THe PoWer oF an IMaGIned end 206

EPILOGUE: ANOTHERFINEDAY 209PoSTSCrIPT: InvITaTIon To aroW 211noTeS 213


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aCKnoWledGeMenTS

This bk stt if s ight-hu-w t i th

Irish Times, which 6 august 2008. Thks t WiCig f uig with th pic, t th s f thIrish Times f mkig tht tic th mst ppu www.irishtimes.com f m th wk.

Thks t Pt S fm libtis Pss fppchig m t p tht itt t it th much

g u hig i u hs.Thks f th suppt f th tm pfssi stfft libtis Pss di Bg, oith d Ci lmb. Thms Mis pi ct schssistc.

Spci thks g t m g fi nick yug,

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wh t hi t wit. M pts, G M, m

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bths, Pt Mick, put up with m tig ibsis. Pit thm, .

T m cgus i th Kmm Busiss Sch t thUisit f limick, thks f m stimutig c-stis th ius subjct s f this bk. M mt fi Pf. K. v vupii ss spci thks fmkig m th cmist I m t bsss with tigusfu stis but th w. Th ut f mt ist pi pt tiig ufggig cugmt. Ih ci bth i sps.

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I wt this bk f m sc s Cii, whs is-tc, g with his bth a, gt m thikig but

th I I ik thm t i i, th th might up with, if w t cfu.

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Ireland In 2050


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Sarah wishes Jack a happy birthday. Jack is forty-

one years old today, born on New Years Day 2009, and

doesnt really want to think about birthdays. A broad-

cast tells him that the National Asset ManagementAgency, created in 2009 to clean up the effects of a

property crash, has just been formally wound up. Talk

about economics irritates Jack, so he switches the

broadcast off.

Because Jack forgot to charge the car, Jack and

Sarahs daughter, Maeve, is late for her prenatal class at

the local health care clinic and not happy about it.Maeve is seventeen years old, and this is her first com-

bined consultation and lesson.

Sarah, a nurse, thinks Maeve is probably five or six

weeks along. Maeve is waiting to find out the sex of

the baby at the birth, and talk of how to decorate the

babys room (yellows? greens? blues?) fills the car until

they reach their destination. Nobody can decide on

what to eat tonight, so they drop the subject. Nobody

mentions the fact that Maeves boyfriend, Patrick, has-

nt called in a week.

Maeve gets out with just a little difficulty, and

waves goodbye. Shes caught in a cloud of dust as Jack

speeds off to drop Bobby to secondary school. He

then drops Sarah in to work, before finally making it to

the office himself. Jack feels tired by the time he gets

into his companys newly leased office space, but

doesnt let it show as he shuffles through the door and

greets his co-workers, apologising for being late.

Jacks co-workers knew that he was running late,

because they have the GPS signal of Jacks phone and

car. They asked the car for an ETA, and rescheduled the

meeting Jack was supposed to chair accordingly.

Draping his coat over the back of his office chair, Jack

reaches for a cup of coffee and downs it in one, glad he

insisted on the expensive stuff when his company

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bought a coffee maker. This coffee is twenty-five euro

a cup, but its worth every drop. Best bit about it is, the

coffees Irish.

Jack is the co-director, chief creative consultant,chief technology officer, and head bottle-washer of a

small firm specialising in three-dimensional embed-

dings of advertising into online media.

Jacks company want the logos on the screens peo-

ple see all around them to be clickable. They want to

get paid for developing and rolling out this new tech-

nology, as well as getting paid on a per-click basis bythe firms that license the technology.

Jacks company directly employs four people: three

in Ireland and one in Bangalore, India, but Jack out-

sources many of the firms more mundane functions to

non-contract virtual labour, or online virtual assistants.

All told, Jacks company has worked with more than a

thousand different providers in its short existence, all

of them selling niche services, like fabrication, coding,

human resources, taxation and legal services, to Jacks

company.

Jack and his co-workers will be filthy rich soon

once their technology is mature enough to be bought

up by one of the large corporations at whom the busi-

ness is targeted. They hope.

Jacks idea cant fail.

His previous thirteen have, though.

This is Jacks fourteenth company start-up in twelve

years. He and two college friends had been mildly suc-

cessful with one business venture their first, which

took off. When they sold the start-up to a large corpo-

ration, Jacks family became financially secure at a

more or less middle-class level. Clever asset manage-

ment of the returns from his first business, along with

some funding from venture capitalists and a trickle

from government grants, keeps Jack afloat today.

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through his thinning hair. Just then, he gets a call

about dinner from Sarah.

Sarah Hayes is forty-three years old, born in 2007 to

proud parents in Leitrim. She looks thirty-one, and sheknows it which makes her happy. Her job as a nurse

in Dublin keeps her on her toes, while two children at

home make sure she doesnt have time to waste. Sarah

is busy every day because the demand for medical

staff on an hourly basis in her hospital is very high

though that demand fluctuates wildly. Sarah works in

one of Irelands public hospitals, so she sees the sick-est, and the poorest, in Irish society. Those with rela-

tively mild complaints are seen in a local clinic, like the

one Sarahs daughter Maeve went to earlier that morn-

ing. The better-off in Irish society take their illnesses to

private hospitals, while the relatively poor must

queue. And queue. And queue.

The system Sarah works in is well-managed and

efficient, if continually strained, and her colleagues are

well-trained, though morale could be higher. Talk of

pay cuts is on everyones lips, and has been for years

now. Supplies of drugs are not an issue here, at least

for the moment. International agreements on bulk

drug purchases by nations within the EU continue to

hold, and the drugs continue to flow into the hospi-

tals. For now.

Irelands relationship with the EU is in jeopardy, and

hospital administrators are trying to plan what to do if

the EU-wide bulk drug purchase scheme goes south,

increasing the price of drugs and further curtailing the

service Sarah and her colleagues can provide to the

poorest in Ireland.

After getting out of the car and saying goodbye

hurriedly, Sarah walks into the Accident and

Emergency department of her hospital, and scans a

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comprehensive set of online decision-management

tools fed by a patients test results and their previous

medical records, placed at Sarahs disposal to help

with diagnoses and treatment plans, and to speed uppatient throughput. Treat, then street is the rule. But

in reality the rule isnt followed to the letter, because

reality doesnt show up on diagnostic screens very

often.

There are only a few doctors, nurses, technicians

and other health care professionals relative to the

numbers of people coming into the emergency roomevery day, so queues and delays are inevitable.

Irelands faltering universal health care system,

combined with a large older population, means that

Sarah is kept busy all day. She likes this because it

makes her shift go faster.

Sarah gets a message from Maeve, but doesnt have

time to open it. She doesnt open the message from

Bobbys school, either. Some days she just cant wait to

get off work, but in general the casework is interesting

and the people are nice, and so, most of the time,

Sarah gets through her shift in good form. Every night

as she leaves, she makes a note of the face of the last

person in the door of the emergency room. If she sees

the same person in the emergency room the next

morning, she knows its going to be a bad day.

Sarahs father, Jim, gives her a call: does she want

him to cook dinner for them all that night?

Jim Hayes is a recently retired local politician. At

seventy-two, hes in good shape, thanks to lifelong

addictions to golf and tennis, but hes been feeling

weaker lately. Jim was elected to local office in 2009

for the first time, at the age of forty-one, and is cur-

rently writing his political memoirs, called The Face of

1978 a reference to his birth year. Jim also works on

small community projects in the Dublin area, and has

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recently completed a nature-walk rezoning, redevel-

opment and redesign near Jacks house.

Sarahs phone has access to Jims recent medical

records, and she makes the phone take Jims pulse ashe talks to her. He seems fine now, but Sarah is a little

worried. She says none of this to Jim, but makes a note

to talk to Jack about arranging a physical for his father

in the near future, and consider looking at community

care options.

Jim dotes on his two grandchildren. He knows he is

lucky to have two of them. Kids are few and farbetween these days.

Sarah, feeling overworked and remembering the

familys indecision about dinner in the car that morn-

ing, is happy to accept Jims offer. She puts in a call to

Maeve and Bobby and lets them know that Granddad

will be cooking dinner.

Jims phone asks Sarahs fridge what they have in

the house, and places an order for steaks, before hang-

ing up. The fridge tells Jim it got them a good deal on

steaks. Jim isnt so sure. Hes never really trusted the

decisions of fridges.

Then Jim gets back to work.

Jim is writing a chapter on local authorities in

Ireland, and the battles he fought as a younger man in

2015 and 2016 to reform those small, powerless enti-

ties into larger, more autonomous organisations with

real political clout, but with a smaller footprint in the

Irish political system.

Jim is trying to figure out just why he lost those bat-

tles, and why only a public outcry forced their partial

reform. Planning disruptions caused by compulsory

purchase orders and local authority inefficiencies

meant that levees designed to stop flooding in

Dublins docklands and Limerick city took five years

longer than necessary.

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The flooding cost the government billions, and

began a steady increase in the national debt which

the current administration is starting to pay down,

thanks to the tax windfall they have received througha boom in demand for Irish products and workers

from a resurgent US economy.

Just as he is starting to feel upset for the

umpteenth time about his failure to put these

thoughts down coherently, Jim receives a message

from Maeve which makes him smile.

Twelve-year-old Bobby hates school. He is not nat-urally bookish, but he doesnt like sport and has few

friends. He also has a large amount of group-work to

do for his various classes. His parents worry that he

might be getting bullied.

Bobbys first year in secondary school is not going

well. Faced with the prospect of five more years of this

crap, Bobby turns to his computer and begins record-

ing haikus about steaks made from teachers. Bobbys

teachers monitoring program spots Bobbys trans-

gression from the designated class feed and gives

Bobby one demerit, meaning that hell do detention

this time.

Bobby is not impressed, but his mood quickly light-

ens, as his group wins a prize for their recent data visu-

alisation project. The groups idea was to model word

usage in Irish to try and sense patterns in the evolu-

tion of the language over the forty-eight years since

the creation of TnaG, the Irish television station,

though Bobby doesnt know anybody who watches a

television except his grandfather.

Bobbys group finds little change in the Irish lan-

guage relative to the English language over the same

period, but their estimation method was novel, and so

the group was awarded first prize. Bobby still has to do

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his detention. He returns to being unimpressed and

thinks of India.

His fathers businesses meant that Bobby and

Maeve travelled with them quite a bit, especially whenthey were younger.

Sarah took a leave of absence from her job at the

hospital, and the family settled for a year in Bangalore,

India. Sarah didnt like it there, but the prospects

looked good for Jacks business, at least for a while.

Bobby and Maeve loved it in India. Everything seemed

so modern, relative to Ireland. Bobby still feels a bitdislocated by the move back to Ireland. He just cant

settle.

Bobbys next class involves comparative religion.

His group is creating a mash-up of different faith-

based songs on the theme of redemption. Bobbys

group have picked betrayal, and he is surprised to find

Gregorian chanting so appealing, but is uninterested

in the project generally. Bobbys teacher warns him

about daydreaming again, and Bobbys bad mood

returns. He remembers that he still has to do deten-

tion. Bah.

Maeve is not waiting long to see her gynaecologist.

Her mother Sarahs private health insurance more than

covers the cost of prenatal care, and so Maeve is seen

quickly. The examination reveals nothing out of the

ordinary with the baby, and Maeve saves a movie of

her childs face to her phone, sending it to Jim, Sarah,

Jack and a few of her friends. Maeve discusses birthing

options with her midwife, and opts for a home birth,

which is standard. Theres not much to worry about, as

Maeve knows that Sarah will be at hand to help with

the birth. She is worried about what Jack will say. She

knows that Jack is not too happy with the pregnancy,

and Maeve is sure that her grandfather disapproves of

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her having a child at such a young age. She thinks that

they think that her education and career will suffer.

Maeve thinks that her father and her grandfather are

both wrong. Maeve messages her boyfriend Patrick,but gets no answer.

Maeves prenatal class starts directly after her exam.

The expectant mothers are taught basic parenting

skills like time management, how to do developmen-

tal checks on their babies, and basic hygiene, as well as

learning coping mechanisms, work strategies and

other tips and tricks. They will need all of these tools tocope with raising a child in the mid-twenty-first centu-

ry. Maeve and her classmates are given readings to

study on their phones, and parenting resource feeds

are added for her by her instructor to look at later.

Maeves mind drifts, and she becomes excited at

the thought of running her own business, like her

father; she then becomes discouraged when she

thinks of how the businesses her dad sets up dont

work out. She thinks she might opt for a career in law,

or even medicine. Theres still so much time, she tells

herself.

And shes right.

Maeve will probably live to be ninety-five, so she

thinks that a few years given over to child-rearing isnt

really a waste of anything. Maeve does the sums. She

will live to be ninety-five. She wants at most two chil-

dren, so thats eighteen months or so spent just being

pregnant less than 2 percent of her life. If she has the

children three years apart, and the children enter the

school system at five years of age, she can get back to

work outside the home when the oldest (she hopes

she has a boy first, then a girl) begins school.

Total time spent exclusively minding children: eight

years less than 8 percent of her life. Best to get the

child-rearing over early, she feels. But Maeve is also a

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little scared. Maeve begins to worry about the babys

future born in 2050 in Dublin and facing into an

uncertain future. Then she tells herself that all new

parents think this way, and goes back to studying thedocuments she was given at the parenting course. A

message comes through to Maeve from the fridge.

Because she is the closest, she will have to go and pick

up the steaks for the dinner tonight. Theyre ready: the

fridge has told her so.

The class is nearly over. Maeve gets ready to leave,

and gets up, just a little slowly. Shes getting the bushome, and isnt looking forward to it.

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1

WrITInG aHISTory oFIrelandS FUTUre

Th pw f imgi , it it c b imgi, is i its biit t ifuc pstchics.

danIel Taylor1

Wh w shu put uss ut f u w t -thig f pstit, f wht hs pstit fus?

SIrBoyle roCHe2

W suffig just w fm b ttck f cmic ps-simism3. Th Iish cm is i f f, its c-spctcu- cmic gwth gg w t pssi s b

th twi wights f ppt csh itticm i fici tumi. Umpmt is c gith ti bsssi. Th pspct f mss migti hstu f th fist tim i gti. Uctitbus.

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Th is mgig iw tht th g tims f th fsb futu, tht bts must b tight, csts

cti, pp t g, pcttis uc. Iswks must c gi u shs i sch f thwig wk th ttt pspit th ft-ig j h. Th m th stt bis with smctit tht ci i Iish pspit is m ik th impmt i th c tht is h f us t 20204.

I bi th m i th stt is wg. I bi w suffig fm th gwig pis f tm pi stuctu- chgs i th itti cm t hm, s ws th cmic hg bust bubb gts. Ibi u cm hs p fst th u mists, I bi th piig itti cssi ( p-hps, pssi) u fgi mstic situti, thugh

bth sius, bi us t th chgs tht h tkpc u th sufc f Is cm scit.dspit u cut tubs, I bi I is i fwmti, I wt t us this bk t shw u wh wcm fm, wh w , cic u f m bifs st wh w h s cut. This bk is fft t

pi th pssibiitis u gchi might fc b2050, t pc u cut situti, i s it is, i smpspcti. I ik t ituc ss f ppti tu thikig smthig tht I bi w st i cts.

as b s ts cmic ws ti t th bm

tims w w picig just tw g, th just pt f pis i Iish cmic hist. Th Iishcm wi c. This pssi t sh pss.

a wh wi w b th?Th bk u hig ttmpts t sw this usti.

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I pict with sm ctit tht, pig upsiti i if ight w u g, u hth, u fm-

is hth, whth u jb t tht psiti wicu hw u gig t this bk. S it is with. I hp tht I c shw u pssimistic ut-ks f gim, smg-fi futu tht it scitchg c m mispc thugh s ti

w cti fc sius thts t u ti fm cimtchg, iuit, g scuit, u gigpputi.

I wt t cic u tht th bc f u sci cmic is is just t tht fgi. Th Iish pp cccmmt chgs f bthtkig sc scp tthi i is, ths f thi chi gchi-. I kw this bcus w h wth ws i th

hist f u ti.W w s f w fm 1970 s w fm 2050.yu might thik tht thig wi chg i th t

ft s, but u b wg. Thik but th mi sttwh u i. I bt it hst chg tht much fmth stt u mmb s chi. a fw w shps, w

cts f pit, phps w sufc, but utimt, th sm. Smwh t bu mik; smthig t i tgt t th shp t bu th mik. Th tis might chg,but th mic mis th sm.

Tk k t th pictus f dubis oC Stt, th t pg. Th stikig simi. W s th sm

buiigs, th sm stts. Th buss fw mu-mts ifft, but it mis, fumt, th smfm 1970 t 2009. Stit imgs f dubi th smpi shw hug ics utw it ighbuigcutis.

o sttch f ft s, I pic chg

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icmt, i isct umps, t ifftsps. Th tim sc ist g ugh t tic fu-

mt shifts i th chct f th ti, thugh fcus w c pit t s wh thigs h chg t th pubic ttitu t th Cthic Chuch, th fhm wship, gi iusti pmt, s .

Is pmt th st ft s, thughstikig (bth i hw w fi t p fm 1970 1987, hw uick w p thft), hstchg us tht much. Th ifuc f th CthicChuch is much imiish. W ik m cppuccis, w m m p ps, w t m. Butfumt, t w th sm. W b fumt- th sm i ft s.

Thigs just ht chg tht much.

Figu 1: oC Stt i 1970. ntic th buss, th buiigs, th mumts, simi t t. Suc: www.teachnet.ie

Figu 2: oC Stt i 2009. Suc: www.wikiimages.com

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WHy BoTHer WrITInG a HISTory oF THeFUTUre?

Witig th hist f th futu is much h th wit-ig th hist f th pst. difficutis is wh futu-gists simp tpt ts. Fcstig is bit ik tigt i c b kig ut th bck wiws . Fmp, w s tht ight w th ws pputi is

gig up, s if it kps gig up t th sm t, i 2050w h 20 bii pp smthig tht st f c-cuti is t -p t b usfu utsi f sht tim hiz. I 1968, Fit Ceo aui Pccifu th Cub f rm. H wt t fi sutis tth gb pbmtiu th sis f -pig

cgig ciss h sw hppig i th p wi th t twtith ctu. H hi gup f scitistst m pict th cus f iusti scit; thisgup puc th 1972 bst-s, The Limits to Growth.This bk t simp tuth: pt w withfiit sucs, t c p ifiit f-

. as pputis gw cmic gwth shu t ht, th t pi f, sht, wt, g th w mtis wu spit iusti scitis i hf,btw th ich th p. Th tu sucs f theth tpic m s i, gs c, s w sgicutu cu suppt s m iiiu

usgs, cu bsb s much puti. Wh fw f ths sucs bcm scc psi,th pcsss th wu u upst th ppct f iusti scitis. oc th pputi i chcut sht wht th schs c th cigcpcit f tht cut, th twi csts f suc pti

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imt puti is fst th th t fgwth. Th cmic bu f ig with ths csts

pi pugs th scit it it pitic chs, w, bth.Th hpthss pst i The Limits to Growth h

b wi iscuss, ifi, fsifi, ifi gi.Th w m ss i th 1970s t bi th citicsf m cmic gwth: sig i pics thg csts, US miit fiu i vitm, Is sug-gish pfmc ti t u eup ighbus. II, th f ws f pputi psi: btw1978 1980, m th 100,000 chi w b figu cips i 2008 2009. Icsig bith ts

w gig t cus gb ti ctstphs butths fcsts h tu ut t b iccut.

If hist hs tught us thig, it is tht Is pp-uti c fuctut wi i fi sht spc f tim,thks t migti iws utws, s w shuppch tk f -gwig pputis with smscpticism.

ath mp, which kps gttig ttt ut i

bts but th futu f th eup m, Is pc i tht m, is puctiit gwth (th itht smhw amic wks i hu f wk m th eup wks, h b ig sf sm tim). It is w-stbish fct tht US wks

wk m hus, puc m stuff, th eup

wks.Th is tu tc mgst cmmtts tssum this puctiit gp wi psist f, gt

wi s th s . a cisis wi p, sm s, this cisis wi fc th eU t mk stic istitutichgs, which wi hut . quick! Btt t stt

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mkig th eup Ui g US ag-Sis w t i th iitb pi. Th gumt I

gi b, ths ik it, its th sig stitch i tim ss i. Tht gumt wi cp upm tims i ths pgs. Smtims th gumt is i,th tims its us is sf-sig ptti gus.

Go BaCK To drIvInG a TrUCK

Thik hw h it is t pict wi i fi. Tkspt. dubi p K ct i Gaa Ftb. epuit h th sm pii: K s ftb fc w th si. Thi ct fm t f tm wh wti, uss u ubbig b sugt dubi

si whs ct fm ws st. Th bkis g ssuggstig th mtch ws dubis t s. yt th m fmK bst dubi ff th pitch tht , ig dubisuppts ( th bkis) skig wh us this .

I pubishig, J. K. rwig, uth f th H Pttsis f bks, h h fist bk tu w s tims.

Sh hs sic bcm f th ichst pp eth.I music, pictig wi is h. Th Bts,th b tht fi gti, w jct b eMI cuti, s h thught guit bs ut f fsh-i. o M e. Ps ws fi i 1954 fm tuig gig t u it gig wh s. G bck t iig

tuck. I 1895, ug bs fth ws t b th bstch tht it st mtt wht h s, h wi mut t thig. Th b i mut t smthig.His m ws abt eisti5.

I fic, pickig wi is , h.

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Pfssi sts sp thi is tig t ticipt up w ticks i th mkts. ecmists f ws th

b.I 1929, Iig Fish f y Uisit, spct p-fss stck mkt st, ssu th pubic thtStcks h ch wht ks ik pmt highptu6. Ths sm stcks w t f pcipitus th t fi s s th Gt dpssi tk h st th wth f gti i th pcss. Th IishStck echg ws t b th Iish Bkig Fti i

Ju 2007 tht its fumts w sti stg, t wtch bks ist th mi Iish i f shs, thISeq, s up t 98 pct f thi u i ightmths.

S: tk pich f st with u whi ig this bk,

th bk tht s with th futu i this w.Th s f thikig but th futu t , is t giuss ss f st, tht w c i sm ss chgu cut bhiu t t th st w might s pigut f uss.

Tkig g iw s gis u gus t usti

cut tpics i ifft ctt, gis us th cfi-c t s this t sh pss. Gig bck t th tipuctiit gumt, i th 1980s it ws th g tgu tht Jp wu bt th US i mufctuig, thtth US t tk Jps wk pctics tht, , Jp wu up wig th US. B th mi-

1990s, Jp ws cmic bskt cs, hs ct c. F cut tkig butfmig Is istitutis g US ( Chis) is,tkig g iw wi s us w.

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Tb 1. Is wkfc wt chg, but u mgph wi. Thumbs f ug pp supptig pp wi cs s uscit gs. Suc: Iish Psis B, www.pensionsboard.ie.

Cfic mtts. S th wh w mks, bus, ss cs. I h fig Im gig t b i ff

s. Wi I g ut bu w c? nt ik. If - thiks tht w, th much fw cs bught, uitt cm gs it cssi, I gt i ff. Ththi s f witig bk but th istt futu istht cut citis ffct pcttis but th futu,

which chgs pst bhiu, chgs th futu. B

witig st but imgi futu, s th ut fmdi T t th stt f this chpt shws, w c thikcht but chgs w might mk t t fst cug pts f tht imgi futu.

It is high gus f us t t h this cs-ti. rchs ut b skig wht pstit hs fth pst is th ppsit f Ts iw. W h tm ik rch i u pubic csti. W mdi Ts.

a ck f iscussi but Is futu is gus,bcus withut g-tm ss f icti, w cstt- mk sht-tm chics, ths m t b i th bst

33


2006 2026 2056

numbs t wk 2,000,100 2,268,000 2,125,000

ag 65 464,000 844,000 1,532,000

numbs t wkp ps 65

4.3 2.7 1.4


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th issus which wi ffct us i th s t cm, suchs cimt chg, u cm its stig i th

w, u tiship with eup, th chgig cm-psiti f u pputi, th I wi h sht th m.

roBoT MonKey BUTlerS are noT THe anSWer

Tchg hs ffct u is f mii, fm fi

th wh t th msticti f istck, pubic hgi,tibitics, chp ftiis, th itt, mbi phs, th w mbi cmputig ics w sttig t ji st umbs. Th cut pc f tchic chg ut-stips tht f pius s b s f mgitu, sp-ci i high tch iustis (tu) ik ifmti

cmmuictis tchg, bi-phmcutics ppi ctics. a i 2009 w i i f spctuism, tm-siz bts, utum tptti, chpispsb gtic tsts, cs which c bk th su b-i, mic ptis which c ttch th ms f m t th b f iig m.

W h ccis f cti ccs, w h s cs,ps cmputs th siz f pci css, but pf w-pp, isui chwig gum cs which c chg thib shps t suit thi ws tsts. a thts t.

Tchg is psi, but, i m imptt ws, itchgs nothing. ys, i u ps is, w m c-

ct th , thugh i sci twks, mi,vic o IP Itt cig s fth, but f th mstimptt thigs i u if, u sti th i ps.

ys, th busiss w ms fst th bf.T is gbis; mig it ccus btw m m cutis, m ft, utsucig f m

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busiss fuctis is th futu, but busiss s sti gt fc-t-fc, cff ( pit), with ps p-

kis, wiks ugs, cts sticks. ys, I is m scu, m iiiuistic, sight ss fmi-it s cutu, but k t whthpps wh ps is. Th (smtims) th wk fu, th with th mus sit th fis, th

with ths wh h st th pists th pfssi-s t hp. Pp sti h chi tgth, s thm tsch, w but thm wh th bcm tgs.

Th bsic thigs t chg tht much.I this bk, Im k t stss tht tchg wi

not s u m pbms. rbt mk buts,shu th gt buit, wi b biit, I b i thuu t bu th fist , but th wt s Is fu-

mt issus f pucig ugh pucts t sui thi i cmptiti gb mktpc, whist c-sumig withi u ms, g-tm, s scit whichsks t hp its wk mmbs, t st sm f th tim.

Tchg, f its bfits, is st f ts bg f hmms. Wht u is th hum ptis t

i th hmm it th i i th ight pc i th ightw, gi gi gi, t mk th buiig stup. Tht ptis, th biit t cci f sig btt i, m f btt mtis, pfit fm thmufctu f tht i, is th w fw. W s i thisbk tht th gmt, b chgig tgts f umbs

f Phd stuts gut, s fth, m th gpsts f th iti pbm u, wh th cisis( pptuit f chg) is i Is pim p-pim schs. Th pptuit is t puc pp cp-b f itig w thigs. Th isk is t pucig thm.

as w s, is gig t mtt m m i th

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Ireland In 2050


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cmig cs. Pucig pp wh c puc thsis thugh ucti sstm fit spcific f tht

pups gig t b cuci t u tis succss.I bi pp mtt m, I bi pp, t tht, t chg t much. S this bk s t hp but tchg, cpt wh it is bius tht tchg

wi chg sph ut f cgiti tht ishth c, which w c uti Chpt 9.

Pp mtt m.

MeeT THe MUrPHyS

Im f m cc with th hum mts, s I thikths imptt t iscuss i th I f 2050. T

iustt sm f th chgs I thik might hpp t thg mi-css fmi f 2050, I mt up tpicfmi: th Muphs. Thughut th bk, u b b t itt igtts but th fmi s th pp t w-cm thi wst mmb. yu s gt itt fctis ibs thughut th tt, just t spic thigs up, gt

u thikig but th ki f I u might s i utwiight s.Th subtit f th bk is hw w wi b iig. Th

tit subtit fct th fcus f th bk: th thpstig st f gt, g, g, b, isst sc-is, I pick wht I s s th mst ik g-tm

ffcts tkig pc i Iish scit, th w m g-, I sk wht mst pp wu i ths sit-utis. I thik tht such futu is, i b stks, th w cus f, th futu u gchi

wi h t with s th bcm uts.Im witig this bk f m kis. But, i cti ss,

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Im s witig this bk f thi chi t, bcus Iwt t stt w but th tp f cut w h t,

th tp f cut w might up with, if w put ubcks it it. I iit u t th w t th f thbk.

nw, bf w gt stt th hist f th futu,ts k t th hist f th pst i Chpt 2, Is pc i th w. It is imptt f wht fwstht w h ss f wh w, th Iish pp, h cmfm. o wh w h th ctt f th pst c

w thik but I i 2050, u is i th t-t-istt futu.

COFFEE DELIGHT

1 February 2050

Jim Hayes loves his coffee, but that stuff is expensive in

2050. Luckily, he has the kind of pension that lets him

spoil himself. Jim retired two years ago, at age seventy.

When he was a teenager in the late 1980s, the price

of a coffee was much less, but the choice was quite

limited. These days Jim buys locally. Irelands warm cli-

mate makes growing a particularly bitter coffee quite

economical. Jim tries to support Irish enterprise when

he can. Jim knows his son-in-law is involved in the dis-

tribution of the Irish coffee abroad, but doesnt want

to ask too many questions about the hows and whysof Jacks businesses. So many of Jack Murphys ven-

tures have failed since he became married to Jims

daughter, Sarah, that Jim knows not to inquire. Say

nothing till you know more, was his late ex-wifes

favourite saying.

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The coffee leaves Jim refreshed. He returns to his

memoir. It is floating in front of him, words and

images, movies and songs. Its a little bit like a three-

dimensional Reeling in the Years, but from a personal

perspective. Jim is dipping into his life feed from the

1990s and 2000s, finding old scanned photos of him-

self at college, his first girlfriend, pictures of him play-

ing hurling, pictures of his first dates with his wife of

twenty years, and pictures of his relationships after

they split up.

Using these images and sounds, Jim looks back on

the Ireland he grew up in, and in many ways, the

Ireland he lives in in 2050 is unrecognisable. Dublin,

for one, has changed, and changed utterly. The coun-

try now means something completely different,

because agricultural land overlaps so well with areas

previously considered part of the urban-rural divide.

Jim thinks over his role in planning and zoning some

of these areas as a county councillor, the lack of inte-

gration of local priorities with the regional ones, the

regional priorities with the national priorities. Irelands

lack of space management and spatial awareness was

a fundamental stumbling block to Irelands economic

development and growth, and the rules he helpedinstitute to integrate local planning and zoning with

regional and national priorities in a transparent man-

ner did much to change the role of local authorities,

and their national counterparts.

Jim feels bittersweet when he thinks about the role

he played in the urban/rural debates that began in

2016. Hes pretty sure the pressure and stress of hiswork helped break apart his marriage. For one thing,

local interests hampered efforts at a true redesign of

the system, because it implied a loss of power at the

local level. Jim begins a section on the local/national

divide in Irish politics. He writes: The dominating

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feature of Irish politics has been a short-sighted

scramble to placate vested interests, but then deletes

it, thinking hes written it somewhere else. Jim thinks:

Its probably time for another coffee.

Ireland In 2050

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