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FOR RELEASE: THURSDAY. FEBRUARY 26, 1987 CONTACT: CLIFF ZUKIN ORRELEASE: SL/EP14-1 (EP64-1) BOB CARTER

RELEASE INFORMATION

A story based on the survey findings presented in this release and background memo will appear in Thursday’s Star-Ledger. Other newspapers mayalso use this information In their Thursday editions. Electronic media mayrelease after 6:00 p.m. Wednesday, February 25. We ask users to properlyattribute this copyrighted information to the “Star-Ledger/Eagleton Poll.”

IRAN-CONTRA ARMS AFFAIR HURTS REAGAN IN NEW JERSEY

JOB RATING DROPS; TRUTHFULNESS OUESTIONED

Ronald Reagan’s stature in New Jersey is being dragged down by the Iran-Contra

arms affair, even before the release of the Tower Commission report expected to be

critical of the President’s handling of the controversy.

The latest Star-Ledger/Eagleton Poll finds Reagan’s job performance rating

down, with a majority of New Jerseyans feeling he has not been telling the truth

in the matter of aid to the Contras, that his administration has been trying to

cover up some of the facts about the Iranian arms deal, and that the President is

not really in charge of what goes on in his administration.

The survey, conducted between February 16 and 23 with 800 New Jersey

residents, shows only one-in-five giving the President positive marks of

“excellent” or “good” for his handling of the Iran-Contra affair. Three-quarters

give Reagan the negative grades of “only fair or “poor.”

New Jerseyans overwhelmingly disapprove of the idea of their government

selling arms to Iran for the release of hostages--by a margin of 70 to 20 percent,

-more-

ATTENTION RADIO STATIONS: Audio is available after 6:00 p.m. on WednesdaysFebruary 25 from (201) 932-3605 (Rutgers Feature Phone).

PIE SlATE 1)NM?SJN Of NEW JERSEY

I.L..JTc1ERS Eagielon institute of Politics • New Brunswick • New Jersey 08901 • 201/828-2210

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with the remainder undecided. Less than one-half of Garden State residents

accept the administration’s justification of its actions in dealing with Iran.

About equal numbers say they actually view the Iran situation as an arms-for-

hostages trade as feel other concerns were behind the administration’s policy.

Fully half the public believes Mr. Reagan was “lying when he said he did not

know that the money from the Iranian arms sale went to help the Contras fighting

against the government of Nicaragua. Another 13 percent are unsure of the

President’s truthfulness; only 37 percent say they are convinced he is telling

the truth. The vast majorlty--83 percent--believe the Reagan administration is

trying to cover up some of the facts surrounding the Iranian arms deal.

Cliff Zukin, director of the Poll, commented, “While there is a widespread

belief that this policy turned out to be an embarrassing mistake, there is much

less a feeling that Reagan has been dishonest than that he has not really been in

control of the situation. As of now, more feel he let the situation get out of

hand than that he orchestrated It; more attribute responsibility to him than

blame.”

The poll suggests that Reagan, somewhat ironically, may have escaped more of

the direct blame because of the perception that he is not fully in control of his

staff in the White House or National Security Council. Only 35 percent think

that Reagan is in charge of what goes on in his administration. In comparison,

56 percent feel that other people are really running the government most of the

time.

The President’s overall job performance rating has slipped noticeably over

the last five months. An October, 1986 survey found positive assessments

outnumbering negative ones by a margin of two-to-one. Positive comments

continued to run ahead of negative ones in the February survey, although by a

much narrower margin of 57 to 42 percent. Additionally, more offer unfavorable

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than favorable evaluations of Reagan’s handling of the nation’s economy, foreign

affairs and relations with the Soviet Union.

Ronald Reagan continues to be viewed as an effective leader for the country,

despite the Iran-Contra controversy. While down from 75 percent in 1984, 63

percent continue to classify Reagan as a “strong leader.” The recent Rutgers

survey also finds 28 percent of state residents saying Reagan has more honesty

and integrity than most people in public life, with half that number saying he

has less and the remainder classifying him as “about the same” as others.

Zukin commented, “The real surprise here Is not that positive assessments

outnumber negative ones, but that so many say that Ronald Reagan is no better

than other politicians. Certainly much of the glow the Reagan presidency has

built up over the last six years has faded, and this will be an important factor

in the context for the 1988 presidential election. We can expect the Iran-Contra

affair to dominate the news for the next six months and into the new presidential

nominating season.”

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Copyright, The Eagleton Institute, Newark Star-Ledger, 1987.

arlic %(aE-ICbWI/EAGLETON POLL

BACKGROUND MEMO--REL.EASE SL/EP14-1 (EP64-1). THURSDAY. FEBRUARY 26. 1987

The latest Star-Ledger/Eagleton Poll was conducted between February 16 and 23,1987, when a random sample of New Jerseyans, (18 years and older) was interviewedby telephone. Figures presented for the total sample of 800 have a sampling errorof ±3.5 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. Sampling error is theprobable difference in results between interviewing everyone in a populationversus a scientific sample taken from that population. Sampling error does nottake into account other possible sources of error inherent in any study of publicopinion. The questions and figures referred to in this release are as follows:

“How would you rate the job Ronald Reagan is doing as president--excellent, good,only fair or poor?”

Excellent Good Only Fair Poor Don’t Know Total jjfl

February 1987 13% 44% 27% 15% 1% 100% (800)October 1986 22 44 22 11 2 101 (800)July 1986 19 44 23 9 4 99 (800)February 1986 23 46 19 9 3 100 (600)August 1985 19 39 25 14 3 100 (800)April-May 1985 15 40 26 16 3 100 (1000)April 1984 12 35 37 15 2 101 (804)

Party--February 1987--Democrat 5 36 32 27 1 101 (221)

r --Independent 14 43 28 14 2 101 (329)\ --Republican 22 56 19 3 0 100 (200)

“How would you rate Reagan’s handling of the nation’s foreign affairs?”

Excellent Good Only fair Poor Don’t know Total jjfl

February 1987 8% 24% 36% 28% 4% 100% (800)April-May 1985 9 32 39 17 4 101 (500)April 1984 5 24 40 26 5 100 (808)October 1983 8 29 36 24 4 101 (804)

“How would you rate Reagan’s handling of relations with the Soviet Union?”

Excellent Good Only fair Poor Don’t know Total fl

February 1987 9% 31% 34% 21% 5% 100% (800)April-May 1985 10 30 31 23 6 100 (500)April 1984 7 24 33 25 11 100 (808)

“How would you rate Reagan’s handling of the problems of the nation’s economy?”

Excellent Good Only fair Poor Don’t know Total flU.

February 1987 11% 35% 30% 20% 4% 100% (800)April-May 1985 13 36 28 21 2 100 (500)April 1984 13 28 32 22 5 100 (808)

THE STAlE IJNNEPSIIY Of NW JERV

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“Do you think than Ronald Reagan is a strong leader, or not?’

Yes No Don’t Know Total

February 1987 63% 33% 4% 100% (800)April 1984 75* 22 4 101 (804)

* Equals percent that agreed (a lot or a little) that Reagan “has been a strongleader for the country.”

“Do you think Ronald Reagan has more honesty and integrity than most people inpublic life, less, or about the same amount?”

Don’tMore Less Same Know Total

February 1987 28% 14% 57% 1% 100% (800)

( “Do you think that most of the time Ronald Reagan is in charge of what goes onL in his administration, or do you think that most of the time other people are

really running the government’?”

Reagan Others Run Don’tin Charge Government Know Total

February 1987 35% 56% 9% 100% (800)

Party--February 1987--Democrat 29 66 5 100 (221)--Independent 33 58 9 100 (329)--Republican 49 41 10 100 (200)

“How would you rate Reagan’s handling of the Iran--Contra arms affair--wouldyou say excellent, good, only fair, or poor?”

Only Don’tExcellent Good fair Poor know Total

February 1987 4% 16% 33% 43% 4% 100% (800)

,— Party--February 1987—-Democrat 3 10 29 55 4 101 (221)—-Independent 5 14 32 44 4 99 (329)--Republican 5 25 41 28 2 100 (199)

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“As you may know, the Reagan administration sold military weapons and spare( parts to the government of Iran during the past year. Do you think they did

this mainly as a way to get American hostages in Lebanon released, or mainlyfor other reasons?”

To Release For Other Both! Don’tHostages Reasons Equal Know Total jjfl

February 1987 39% 44% 7% 10% 100% (799)

“Do you approve or disapprove of the United States government selling arms toIran in order to get American hostages in Lebanon released?”

Don’tApprove Disapprove Know Total

February 1987 20% 70% 9% 99% (798)

“Ronald Reagan has said he did not know that the money from the Iranian armssale was going to help the Contras who are fighting against the government ofNicaragua. Do you think he was telling the truth or was he lying when he saidthat?”

Don’tTelling Truth Was Lying Know Total La).

February 1987 37% 50% 13% 100% (799)

Party--February 1987--Democrat 27 59 13 99 (221)--Independent 36 51 13 100 (329)--Republican 56 37 7 101 (199)

“Do you think the Reagan administration is trying to cover up some of the factsabout the Iranian arms deal, or not?”

Yes-- No--Not Don’tCovering lip Covering Up Know Total

February 1987 83% 11% 5% 99% (799)

Party--February 1987--Democrat 91 5 4 100 (221)

(‘ —-Independent 83 12 6 101 (329)—-Republican 78 18 3 99 (199)

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