IRAN and the North: An Introduction to

IRAN and the North:An Introduction to An Introduction to Iran’s Interactions with Caspian, Iran’s Interactions with Caspian, Russia, Central Asia and CaucasusRussia, Central Asia and Caucasus

Abbas MalekiPresented in a workshop in Center for Strategic Research,

Tehran, August, 2004.

Iran and the North, Abbas Maleki 2

1-Iran and the Caspian

K l e i n e r Ka u k a s u s

Donez

Volga

Volga

Ural

Ural

Emba

Torgai

Tobol

Syrdarja

Amudarja

K r ua ak m

- Ka na l

Karakum - Kanal

Atrak

Murgab

Don

Chopjor

Medwediza

Don

Kura

Kura

Safid Rüd

Arax

Arax

Murat

Kuban

Kuban

Dijla

Dijla

Dicle

Urmiasee

Vansee

Sewan

Aral Sea

Kara-Bogas-Gol

SEA

CASPEAN

BLACK SEA

ASOV SEA

K o

p e t d a g

K

y

y l k u m

Ka

ra

ku

m

S O U T H E R N U R A L

E l b u r s

H i g h l a n d o f I r a n

Z a g r o s

C

u c

a

a

s

u

s

AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

UZBEKISTANAZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q

R U S S I A N F E D E R A T I O N

K A Z A K H S T A N

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

DagestanRepublic

KalmycRepublic

Astrakhan

district

TEHERAN

ERIWAN

TIFLIS

BAKU

ASHGABAD

0 500 km

Z

Iran and the North, Abbas MalekiIran and the North, Abbas Maleki 33

Caspian Region: Basic DataCaspian Region: Basic DataCountry Area Population GNP per capita

1,000 km² mill. US-$

Aserbaidschan 86.6 8.3 650 Russia 1) 108.4 3.4 1,750 Kasachstan 2,717.3 15.5 1,350 Usbekistan 447.4 25.1 550 Turkmenistan 488.1 4.8 950

Total 3,847.8 57.1

OPEC-Gulf 4,433.2 122,0 1680 - >9206 Iran 1,648.0 68.1 1,680 Turkey 779.5 64.4 2,530 Germany 357.0 82.4 25,240

1) only Dagestan Republic, Kalmykien Republic and Astrakhan district


Shares of the WorldShares of the World

0

2

4

6

8

1 0

1 2

p e r c e n t

O i l N a t u r a l g a s


Caspian Oil and Gas Caspian Oil and Gas ResourcesResources

OILOIL Low estimateLow estimate High estimateHigh estimate

AzerbaijanAzerbaijan 39 billion bbls39 billion bbls 44.5 billion bbls44.5 billion bbls

KazakhstanKazakhstan 101 billion bbls101 billion bbls 109.6 billion 109.6 billion bblsbbls

Turkmenistan Turkmenistan 38.5 billion bbls38.5 billion bbls 39.7 billion bbls39.7 billion bbls

IranIran 0.1 billion bbls 0.1 billion bbls

NATURAL GASNATURAL GAS

AzerbaijanAzerbaijan 35 Tcf 35 Tcf 65 Tcf 65 Tcf

KazakhstanKazakhstan 88.3 Tcf 88.3 Tcf 153.3 Tcf153.3 Tcf

Turkmenistan Turkmenistan 158.9 Tcf158.9 Tcf 229.9 Tcf229.9 Tcf

IranIran 0 Tcf 0 Tcf 10.6 Tcf 10.6 Tcf

Source: Corel, 2003Source: Corel, 2003


Counties with Oil Reserves Counties with Oil Reserves > 1 bill. t and Strategic > 1 bill. t and Strategic

EllipseEllipse


Distribution of World Oil Distribution of World Oil ReservesReserves

OPEC others14%

OECD8%

Others8%

Russia5%

Caspian4%

OPEC-Gulf61%


Distribution of Gas reservesDistribution of Gas reserves

Sea

Aral-sea

SEA

CASPIAN

ASOV SEA

Issyk- Kul

BLACK

SEA

NORTH- CAUCASUS- BASIN

NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN

DNEPR- PRIPYAT- BASIN

BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN

NORTH - UST-YURT BASIN

ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN

AFGHAN - SOUTH- TADSHIKBASIN

AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

UZBEKISTAN KIRGYSTANC H I N A

AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe

Neft Daschlari Guneshli Chirag Azeri

Balakhany Sabunchi Ramany

BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli

KandymDengizkul-NUrtabulak

ZevardyKokdumalakShurtan

Mingbulak

Uzen

Zhetybay Karazhanbas

Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg

KrestishchenskoyeShebelinka

Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk

Maykop Stavropol-NAstrakhan

BoundaryCapitolSedimentary basinOil fieldsGas fieldsGas-condensate fieldsCross section

LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin

CENTRAL- CASPIAN- BASIN

Kalamkas


NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN


BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN


ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN


AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN


AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe



BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli



Mingbulak

Uzen


Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg


Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk



LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN


BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN


ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN


AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN


AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe



BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli



Mingbulak

Uzen


Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg


Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk



LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN


BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN


ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN


AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN


AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe



BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli



Mingbulak

Uzen


Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg


Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk



LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN


BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN


ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN


AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN


AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe



BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli



Mingbulak

Uzen


Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg


Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk



LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN


BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN


ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN


AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN


AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe



BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli



Mingbulak

Uzen


Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg


Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk



LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN


BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN


ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN


AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN


AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe



BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli



Mingbulak

Uzen


Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg


Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk



LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN


BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN


ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN


AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN


AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe



BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli



Mingbulak

Uzen


Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg


Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk



LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN


BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN


ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN


AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN


AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe



BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli



Mingbulak

Uzen


Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg


Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk



LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN


BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN


ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN


AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN


AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe



BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli



Mingbulak

Uzen


Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg


Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk



LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN


BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN


ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN


AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN


AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe



BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli



Mingbulak

Uzen


Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg


Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk



LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN


BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN


ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN


AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN


AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe



BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli



Mingbulak

Uzen


Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg


Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk



LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN


BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN


ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN


AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN


AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe



BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli



Mingbulak

Uzen


Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg


Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk



LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN


BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN


ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN


AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN


AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe



BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli



Mingbulak

Uzen


Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg


Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk



LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN


BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN


ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN


AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN


AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe



BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli



Mingbulak

Uzen


Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg


Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk



LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN


BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN


ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN


AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN


AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe



BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli



Mingbulak

Uzen


Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg


Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk



LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN


BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN


ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN


AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN


AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe



BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli



Mingbulak

Uzen


Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg


Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk



LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN


BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN


ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN


AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN


AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe



BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli



Mingbulak

Uzen


Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg


Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk



LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN


BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN


ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN


AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN


AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe



BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli



Mingbulak

Uzen


Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg


Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk



LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN


BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN


ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN


AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN


AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe



BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli



Mingbulak

Uzen


Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg


Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk



LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN


BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN


ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN


AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN


AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe



BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli



Mingbulak

Uzen


Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg


Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk



LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN


BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN


ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN


AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN


AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe



BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli



Mingbulak

Uzen


Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg


Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk



LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN


BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN


ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN


AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN


AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe



BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli



Mingbulak

Uzen


Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg


Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk



LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN


BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN


ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN


AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN


AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe



BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli



Mingbulak

Uzen


Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg


Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk



LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


NORTH-CASPIAN BASIN

VOLGA URALBASIN

WEST-SIBIRIAN BASIN

AMU- DARYA BASIN


BLACK SEA BASINN

SOUTH-CASPIAN BASIN


ZAGROS BASIN

TURGAYBASIN

FERGANA BASIN

CHU - SARYSU BASIN


AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN


AZER-BAIJAN

I R A NI R A Q


K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIA

T U R K E Y

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

ARMENIA

ASTANA

BISHKEK

KABUL

DUSHANBEASHGHABAD

TEHERAN

BAKUYEREVAN

TBILISSI

Korpeje

ChelekenKotur-Tepe



BaKhar

Beurdershik

AchakNaip

Kirpichli

Gurgutli

Samantepe

JashlarShatlyk

Dauletabad-Donmez

Gazli



Mingbulak

Uzen


Tengiz

Zhanaschol

Kumkol

Karachaganak

Orenburg


Yefremovskoye

Anastasievo-Troitsk



LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


LEGEND

0 500 km

Kashagan

Khvalynsk

Shah-Deniz

Gadshak

YuriKorchagin


Kalamkas


Giant Fields and the Others: Giant Fields and the Others: Size is ImportantSize is Important

Field Size Number of Fields Ave. Production Percent Field Size Number of Fields Ave. Production Percent ofof

World TotalWorld Total

--- bbl/day----- bbl/day-- --- bbl/day------ bbl/day--- ---- pct.-- ---- pct.--

>500,000>500,000 1414 993,00 993,00 2020

300-500,000300-500,000 1212 342,000 342,000 6 6

200-300,000200-300,000 2929 221,000 221,000 9 9

100-200,000100-200,000 6161 130,000 130,000 12 12

<100,000<100,000 4,000+ 9,000 4,000+ 9,000 53 53

--------------------------------------

Source: Simmons, 2003. Source: Simmons, 2003.


Giant Fields/Mega Projects Coming Giant Fields/Mega Projects Coming On StreamOn Stream (over 500 MM bbls (over 500 MM bbls

reserves)reserves)

YearYear Number of fieldsNumber of fields Total productionTotal production 20032003 99 1.2 million 1.2 million

bbls/daybbls/day 20042004 1111 2 million bbls/day2 million bbls/day 20052005 1818 3 million bbls/day3 million bbls/day 20062006 1111 2 million bbls/day2 million bbls/day 20072007 3 3 0.320-0.470 0.320-0.470

million bbls/daymillion bbls/day 20082008 3 3 1.270 million 1.270 million

bbls/daybbls/day Source: Source: Petroleum ReviewPetroleum Review, January 2004, pp. 18-19, January 2004, pp. 18-19


The Global PerspectiveThe Global Perspective

Only six of the 55 projects shown on the last table Only six of the 55 projects shown on the last table are Caspian projects, but these account for 51 are Caspian projects, but these account for 51 percent of the increase in world totals in fields in percent of the increase in world totals in fields in this categorythis category

Looking beyond 2008, the only reasonably certain Looking beyond 2008, the only reasonably certain projects are from the Caspian areaprojects are from the Caspian area

No other field in the “plug the gap category” has No other field in the “plug the gap category” has more than 12 percent of the reserves of the more than 12 percent of the reserves of the Kashagan fieldKashagan field

Saudi fields like Ghawar are aging.Saudi fields like Ghawar are aging.


The Caspian Importance for The Caspian Importance for USUS

Caspian was important for US before Caspian was important for US before 11/9:11/9:

-Diversification of energy resources-Diversification of energy resources

-Deterring of Russian domination in -Deterring of Russian domination in Central Central

Asia and Caucasus Asia and Caucasus

-US presence to distance among regional -US presence to distance among regional

powers as Russia, China, Iran and Indiapowers as Russia, China, Iran and India


The Caspian Importance for The Caspian Importance for USUS

Caspian is not important for US as it was before 11/9:Caspian is not important for US as it was before 11/9: -War against terrorism-War against terrorism -The change in US strategy in the region-The change in US strategy in the region from political-economic to security-militaryfrom political-economic to security-military approach approach -The importance of countries with strong-The importance of countries with strong ability to fight against terrorism instead ofability to fight against terrorism instead of rich energy countries.rich energy countries. -Russian long-term Cooperation with US in energy-Russian long-term Cooperation with US in energy marketmarket -New Russian Terminals in Murmansk, Primorsk, …-New Russian Terminals in Murmansk, Primorsk, …


Iran and Caspian Legal Iran and Caspian Legal RegimeRegime

1921 and 19401921 and 1940 accords still are valid accords still are valid The best system for Caspian is The best system for Caspian is

CondominiumCondominium If other states wishes to divide the Caspian, If other states wishes to divide the Caspian,

Iran asks for Iran asks for 20%20% No acceptance on No acceptance on dual regimedual regime, division in , division in

seabed and common on surface.seabed and common on surface. The The sectored agreementssectored agreements are are

appreciated appreciated


Demilitarized CaspianDemilitarized Caspian

No military presence in the Caspian No military presence in the Caspian with non littoral states’ flags has with non littoral states’ flags has been recognized by 1921 and 1940 been recognized by 1921 and 1940 accordsaccords

Iran has proposed the Iran has proposed the demilitarization of the Caspiandemilitarization of the Caspian

Iran also protested to a BP oil Iran also protested to a BP oil exploration ship in July 2001.exploration ship in July 2001.


Confrontation between Iran and Confrontation between Iran and AzerbaijanAzerbaijan


Agreements among 5 StatesAgreements among 5 States

The Convention on Environment was signed The Convention on Environment was signed in November 2003 in Tehran.in November 2003 in Tehran.

Consensus over transportation as 1940 Consensus over transportation as 1940 agreement saysagreement says

The different agreement on species of the The different agreement on species of the Caspian, 50% of sturgeon trade is for IranCaspian, 50% of sturgeon trade is for Iran

The next summit will be in Iran in 2006??The next summit will be in Iran in 2006?? 14 round of negotiations among littoral states14 round of negotiations among littoral states Several bilateral, trilateral discussions. Several bilateral, trilateral discussions.


PIPELINE ROUTES: AN PIPELINE ROUTES: AN IMPRESSIONIMPRESSION

Bottlenecks andPipelines 11 oil pipeline projects/ 6 operational 6 natural gas pipeline projects/2 operational. Of particular notice:

CPC BTC TCP


Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran (Totalfinaelf Project)


Train Transport Very costly/

Petrokazakhstan claims $3-4/bbl to Xingjian


Neka-Ray Pipeline (170 000 b/d) Swap


Neka-Ray capacities (barrels per day)

First Phase: 40 000 Second Phase: 170 000 Third Phase: 370 000 Fourth Phase: 500 000


Neka-Ray Pipeline Specification

Length: 312 km Diameter: 32 inch Ecological Situation of the pipeline’s

location: -Forest regions: 42 km -Mountainous regions: 114 km -Agricultural regions: 156 km


Neka-Ray Old and New Pipeline


Caspian Oil Terminals and Neka


Distance to Baku

Astrakhan-Neka: 702 km Octavo-Neka: 422 km Makhach Kala-Neka: 409 km Baku-Neka: 265 km Krasnovodsk-Neka: 198 km


Cost of oil transport to Neka$ per ton

Astrakhan: $15-16 Octavo: $14 Makhach Kala: $14 Krasnovodsk: $10-12

Average: $14


Pipelines and swaps Situation:

Tehran and other major metropolitan areas are in Northern part of Iran. Iranian oil fields are in the South. Transportation to Northern refineries costly

Azeri, Russian, and Kazakh crude is close at hand, but must be transported to Northern refineries. Iran builds Neka-Tehran pipeline (370,000 bbls/day, 208 miles to Tehran). Iran can buy crude cheaply and transport it to Tehran

Not necessary to sell South crude to North Iran, sell it at Kharg Island. And charge sellers $2.00/bbl for the ability to sell the crude at a higher price.

AZARBAIJAN-IRAN Oil EXPORT TO TURKEY


Existing & Proposed Gas Pipelines:

(Pipelines Extending from Asian Countries to Europe)


GAS EXPORT TO TURKEY AND EUROPE


Iran-Armenia Gas Pipeline


A “Bottlenecked” Background

Great Power Conflicts/Regional Discord/ILSA

Property Rights Dispute over Caspian Sea Resources


Pipelines: The “Wave” of the Future Less costly than other

forms of transport Allow for monopsonid

rents Pipeline tariffs are a

major problem As are transit charges And vulnerability to

sabotage, tapping, and other entrepreneurial activities


Pipelines and Monopsonid Rents

Kazakh firm sells to a Russian pipeline owner; assume: Price of crude at Samara is $26.90/bbl Per bbl transport to Samara is $0.67/bbl Price in Xinjiang is $20.00/bbl Cost of transport to Xinjiang (tank car) is $4.00/bbl..

Then Russian owner can purchase Kazakh crude at $16.01/bbl. Sells it in Samara at 26.90/bbl, minus transport costs of $0.67, making a profit of $9.22/bbl.

Assuming 100,000 bbls./day. Profit per year is $336.5 millions


Pipelines: The Tariff Problem (1)Alternative Caspian Routes: Per Barrel Costs (Tariffs) and Pipeline Owner Internal Rates of Return

Owner IRRs BTC CPC Kazakh- Kazakhstan- China Turkmenistan-

Kharg Island

---pct. ------ ----------------------------------US$/bbl/day---------- 20 1.61 1.78 2.72 0.59 (0.69*) 15 1.30 1.40 2.14 0.48 (0.55*) 10 0.98 1.03 1.58 0.38 (0.41*) 5 0.68 0.70 1.08 0.27 (0.29*)____________________________* Maximum Estimation


Pipeline Tariffs (II) Iranian line the least costly CPC versus BTC- Results reversed Costs not remarkable on a per bbl basis Income potential. Difference for BTC line and an

IRR of 20 and one of 15 percent is $2.2-2.8 billions

Incentive for higher tariffs as a means of reducing producer country revenues…

Could well be a thorn in relationships between Caspian producer governments and the Western oil companies.


Transit Fees and Sabotage: Known transit fees:

CPC line is $3.00/bbl. BTC line is $0.12-.25/bbl (Georgia), $0.20/bbl

(Turkey) and 0.15/bbl (Azerbaijan) Problem of regional restiveness:

Chechnya closed down N. route to Black Sea BTC threats from PKK, and other groups

Pipeline vulnerability (Colombia,Iraq)


Caspian Legal regime (1)

Was there ever a Soviet –Iranian Regime?Caspian Boundaries and legal effects of the State SuccessionLegal Regime Models and Energy RightsUnited Nations Convention on Law of the Seas and its impacts on the CaspianLegal Regime based on CondominiumTailor made legal regime for CaspianThe cloudy legal dimension of Caspian geopolitics



-The Third United Nations Convention on the Laws of the Sea (UNCLOS):EquityDelimitation

-Territorial Sea, 12 n. miles - Contiguous Zone, 12 n. miles - Exclusive Economic Zone, to 200 n. miles - Continental Shelf, to 200 n. miles - High Seas



Applicability of the UNCLOS to the Caspian:Lake:

-Excludes bodies of water have no outlet to another sea or ocean (Article 122) -None of the littoral states are parties to the

UNCLOS -Caspian contains Continental Shelf or Depression? -Navigation rights to non-littoral states? - Transit Passage? -But Littoral States can enjoy from equity and proportionality consideration in UNCLOS

-Tools of delimitation by UNCLOS are practical - 5 littoral states have full sovereignty, exclusive control of air space and subsoil, over 24 miles, an EEZ with right of explore hydrocarbon and living resources.

Iran and the North, Abbas Maleki42

Proposed Approaches to the Region

Russia: -Collective security, SCO, CSI -The coordinated economic activities -Political activities (CIS) West: -Market economy, World Bank, WTO -Security cooperation, NATO (PfP), OSCE -Life style (Globalization) Iran: -Sustainable Development, ECO -Political Cooperation, Islamic Conference -Orientation on the historical civilization and traditions (Now Rouz)


What Iran could do

1-Caspian Summit on legal regime2-Sustianable activities in various fields: Oil and gas Fishery Transportation Environment Aviation3-Demilitarization4-Public Awareness5-International Cooperation

2-Iran and Russia


Russia: The Biggest Country in the World


Russia


Russia and its Neighbors


Russia at a glance

• Population: 143.2 million (UN, 2003)

• Capital: Moscow

• Major language: Russian

• Major religions: Christianity, Islam

• Life expectancy: 61 years (men), 73 years (women) (UN)

• Monetary unit: 1 rouble = 100 kopecks

• Main exports: Oil and oil products, natural gas, wood and wood products, metals, chemicals, weapons and military equipment

• GNI per capita: US $2,130 (World Bank, 2002)


Key Decision Makers

President: Vladimir Putin Prime Minister: Mikhail Fradkov Foreign Minister: Sergei Lavrov Finance Minister: Alexei Kudrin Defence Minister: Sergei Ivanov Security Advisor: Igor Ivanov


Soviet’s Foreign Policy

Soviet’s Foreign Policy was the conclusion of interaction between national interests and Communism ideology

Marx: Proletariat doesn’t have the country. From 1947, Soviet competition with US: -Cold War -Peaceful Coexistence -Detent -Deterrence Gorbachev and Regan meeting in Iceland, 1986: 2 superpowers nuclear weapons reduction Soviet economic deterioration


Russia’s Foreign Policy (1)

1992-1996: Full coordination with US, idealism and democracy

1996-2000: Strategic alliance with China and India, focus to Asia, ME

2000-Sep. 20001: Eurasianism Sep. 2001-now: acceptance of unipolar

system


Russia’s Foreign Policy (2)Schools of Thoughts

Westerners (Atlanticism): Andrea Kozyrov (Aug. 1991-Dec. 1992) Jion to Democratic Club, Cooperation with EU, NATO, IMF, WB, OECD, G7 Reduction of relations with Near Abroad TWO GROUPS:

Kozyrov’s Followers: Assertive to the West

Liberal Politicians: Civilized dialogue both with the West and CIS


Russia’s Foreign Policy (3)Schools of Thoughts

Eurasianists

Response to the Westerners.

Focus on Russian’s Geopolitics

TWO GROUPS:

-The Democratic Version (Reformists)

-The Slavophil Version Derzhavniki (National Power)


Relations with China Relations with China China’s Asymmetric Deterrence: China’s Asymmetric Deterrence: China China

with modernized military is ready to fight along its with modernized military is ready to fight along its border without permit the third party to intervene. border without permit the third party to intervene.

Instability inside China: Instability inside China: Socio-economic Socio-economic crisis in Northern part of China causes vast crisis in Northern part of China causes vast emigration to Russiaemigration to Russia

Islamic Fundamentalism: Islamic Fundamentalism: Xinjiang Xinjiang independence should be a bed for Islamic independence should be a bed for Islamic fundamentalism and a copy for Central Asia. fundamentalism and a copy for Central Asia.

Future of Relations: Future of Relations: Russians don’t know Russians don’t know Chinese tendency after economic growth and Chinese tendency after economic growth and solving Taiwan problem: solving Taiwan problem:

-Shift to the South, no threats on Russian -Shift to the South, no threats on Russian bordersborders

-Shift to the North, tension increases in China--Shift to the North, tension increases in China-CIS borders. CIS borders.

3-Central Asia

Iran and the North 56

Roof of the World


Farghana Valley


Aral Sea Region


Turkmenistan


Turkmenistan (2)

Population: 4.8 million (UN, 2003) Capital: Ashgabat Major language: Turkmen, Russian Major religion: Islam Life expectancy: 64 years (men), 70 years

(women) (UN) Monetary unit: 1 Turkmen manat = 100 tenge Main exports: Oil, gas, textiles, raw cotton GNI per capita: US $1,090 (World Bank, 2001)


Uzbekistan (1)


Uzbekistan (2) Population: 25 million Capital: Tashkent Area: 447,400 sq km (172,700 sq miles) Major language: Uzbek, Russian, Tajik Major religion: Islam Life expectancy: 66 years (men), 72 years

(women) Monetary unit: 1 Uzbek som = 100 tiyins Main exports: Cotton, gold, natural gas, mineral

fertilizers, ferrous metals, textiles, motor vehicles GNI per capita: US $310 (World Bank, 2002)


Tajikistan (1)


Tajikistan (2) Population: 6.2 million (UN, 2003) Capital: Dushanbe Major languages: Tajik, Russian Major religion: Islam Life expectancy: 66 years (men), 71 years

(women) (UN) Monetary unit: 1 Tajik somoni = 100 dirams Main exports: Aluminium, electricity,

cotton, fruit, textiles GNI per capita: US $180 (World Bank,

2002)


Kazakhstan (1)


Kazakhstan (2)

Population: 15.4 million (UN, 2003) Capital: Astana Major languages: Kazakh, Russian Major religions: Islam, Christianity Life expectancy: 61 years (men), 72 years

(women) (UN) Monetary unit: 1 Kazakh tenge = 100 tiyn Main exports: Oil, ferrous and nonferrous metals,

machinery, chemicals, grain, wool, meat, coal GNI per capita: US $1,520 (World Bank, 2002)


Kyrgyzstan (1)


Kyrgyzstan (2) Population: 5.1 million (UN, 2003) Capital: Bishkek Major languages: Kyrgyz, Russian Major religions: Islam, Christianity Life expectancy: 65 years (men), 72 years

(women) (UN) Monetary unit: 1 som = 100 tyiyns Main exports: Fruit, vegetables, gold,

tobacco GNI per capita: US $290 (World Bank, 2002)


TABLE 1:CENTRAL ASIA SIZE AND ECONOMY

Source: World Bank statistical data base

Size

(SqKm Millions)

Pop. (#M)

GDP -2000

Current % of

($B) Real GDP

GDP Growth

2000 2001

GDP/ Capita 2000

(atlas method)

Kazakhstan 2.7 14.9 18.3 66 9.6 10.0 1190

Uzbekistan 0.5 24.7 13.5 * 96 4.0 3.8 610

Turkmenistan 0.5 4.8 4.4 ** 76 17.6 16.0 840

Kyrgyz Rep. 0.2 4.9 1.3 66 5.0 5.3 270

Tajikistan 0.1 6.3 1.0 38 8.3 5.0 170

C.A. Total 4.0 55.6 38.5

Comparators

Russia 17.1 145.5 251.1 66 8.3 5.0 1660

Poland 0.3 38.7 158.8 147 4.0 2.0 4200


TABLE 2: INDICATORS OF CENTRAL ASIA MACRO STABILITY – 2000

Source: World Bank statistical data base

Fiscal Balance

(% GDP)

Current Account Balance

(% GDP)

Inflation

(%)Debt to GDP (%)

Kazakhstan -1.0 5.9 13 34

Uzbekistan -2.2 2.4 ** 28 59**

Turkmenistan 1.2 9.4 ** 8 52**

Kyrgyz Rep. a/ -10.2 -5.9 19 131

Tajikistan -0.6 -6.2 33 93

Comparators

Russia 2.9 16.7 21 65

Poland -2.2 -6.3 10 na


TABLE 3

THE LEVEL OF REFORM IN CENTRAL ASIA – 2000 (rated on a scale of 1 to 4.3, with 4.3 being the highest level of reform)

Source: EBRD Transition Report, 2001

Prices FX and trade

Privatization

Small LargeEnterprise

ReformBanking

Sector Reform

Kazakhstan 3.0 3.3 4.0 3.0 2.0 2.3

Uzbekistan 2.0 1.0 3.0 2.7 1.7 1.7

Turkmenistan 2.0 1.0 2.0 1.7 1.0 1.0

Kyrgyz Rep. 3.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 2.3

Tajikistan 3. 0 3.3 3.3 2.3 1.7 1.0

Comparators

Russia 3.0 2.3 4.0 3.3 2.0 1.7

Poland 3.3 4.3 4.3 3.3 3.0 3.3

4-Caucasia

Iran and the North, A. Maleki73

Georgia and Armenia

Iran and the North, A. Maleki74

Azerbaijan Republic


Nagorno-Karabakh


Paul Gobel proposal


Bibliography

Corel,D. (2003) Caspian Sea Region:Key Oil and Gas Statistics, August, Energy Information Administration, USDE, http://eia.doe.gov/cabs/caspstats.html

Dimitroff, T.J.(2003). “The Legal Implications of BTC,” Presentation to the IEA Round Table on Caspian Oil and Gas (Florence, April 14) http://www.iea.org/dbtw-wpd/textbase/work/2003/caspian/DIMITROFF.PDF

“Export Routes and Options” (2002), July http://iea.org.html

Heslin,S. N. (1998).”Key Constraints to Caspian Pipeline:Status,Significance and Outlook”Unlocking the Asets:Energy and the Future of Central Asia and the Caucasus(James Baker III Institute of Public Policy, Rice University, April http://www.rice.edu/energy/unlockingtheassets.html

Simmons, M. R(2003). “The Saudi Arabian Oil Miracle” ppt presentation to CSIS, Washington D.C. February 24 .http://www.csis.org/energy

Soligo, R.(2002).”The Economics of Transport Routes for Caspian Oil” http://denizhukuku.bilgi.edu.tr/caspian%20conference%oilgi-Soligo.doc


Bibliography II

Map Credit:

“Oil, the Taliban and the Political Balance of Central Asia” A Worldpress.org.special report http://www.worldpress.orgg/specials/pp/frnt.htm

Pictures Credit:

Caspian World http://caspianworld.com/en/90/1311370470/1603766208/553748694/1489428647

Documents

IRAN and the North: An Introduction to