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8/20/2019 IPSOS Poll November 19 2015
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© 2015 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary informationand may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
11.18.2015
Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters
Core Political Approval
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These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted
for date
November 14-18, 2015
For the survey,
a sample of
3,418
Americans
including
1,275
Democrats
1,299
Republicans
459
Independents
w e r e i n t e r v i e w e d o n l i n e
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The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility inte
In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percent
For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
1.9
for all adults
3.1
Democrats
3.1
Republicans
5.2
Independ
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The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by:
─ Gender
─ Age
─ Education
─ Ethnicity
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls.
All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage
error and measurement error.
Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of on
per cent.
Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit http://polling.reuters.com/.
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RIGHT DIRECTION/WRONG TRACKGenerally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on
24%
61%
14%
All Adults44%
40%
17%
Democrats
10%
84%
5%
Republicans
Right Direction
Wrong Track
Don’t Know
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BARACK OBAMAOverall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (Asked of those who selected “approve” or “disapprove”) Q2b. If you had to choose, do yo
disapprove? (Asked of those who selected “don’t know”)
Total Democrat Republican
Strongly approve 21% 40% 9%
Somewhat approve 17% 32% 5%
Lean towards approve 4% 6% 1%
Lean towards disapprove 3% 2% 2%
Somewhat disapprove 12% 10% 14%
Strongly disapprove 36% 9% 68%
Not sure 7% 2% 1%
TOTAL APPROVE 42% 77% 15%
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 51% 20% 83%
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Please think ahead now to the next Presidential in one year’s time, in 2016.
If the 2016 Republican presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you v
Total
(n=2,143)
Republican
(n=1,299)
Inde
(n
Donald Trump 30% 37%
Benjamin Carson 11% 14%
Marco Rubio 8% 11%
Ted Cruz 5% 8%
Rand Paul 5% 5%
Jeb Bush 4% 6%
Mike Huckabee2% 3%
Carly Fiorina 2% 3%
Chris Christie 2% 3%
John Kasich 2% 2%
Bobby Jindal 1% 1%
Rick Santorum 1% 1%
Lindsey Graham 1% *%
George Pataki *% *%
Jim Gilmore *% *%
Wouldn’t vote 24% 6%
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES
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Regardless of your personal preference, if the Republican Presidential Primaries came down to these candidvote?
Total
(n=2,143)
Republican
(n=1,299)
Donald Trump 36% 43%
Benjamin Carson 21% 26%
Marco Rubio 18% 25%
Wouldn’t vote 26% 7%
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES
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Please think ahead now to the next Presidential in one year’s time, in 2016.If the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vo
Total
(n=2,119)
Democrat
(n=1,275)
Hillary Clinton 39% 52%
Bernie Sanders 27% 31%
Martin O’Malley 4% 4%
Wouldn’t vote 30% 13%
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES
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Weekly Presidential Approval
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
J a n 1 - 7 , 2 0 1 2
J a n 1 5 - 2 1 , 2 0 1 2
F e b 5 - 1 1 , 2 0 1 2
F e b 1 9 - 2 5 , 2 0 1 2
M a r 4 - M a r 1 0 , 2 0 1 2
M a r 1 8 - 2 4 , 2 0 1 2
A p r 1 - 7 , 2 0 1 2
A p r 1 5 - 2 1 , 2 0 1 2
A p r 2 9 - M a y 5 , 2 0 1 2
M a y 1 3 - 1 9 , 2 0 1 2
M a y 2 7 - J u n 2 , 2 0 1 2
J u n 1 0 - 1 6 , 2 0 1 2
J u n 2 4 - J u n 3 0 , 2 0 1 2
J u l 8 - 1 4 , 2 0 1 2
J u l 2 2 - 2 8 , 2 0 1 2
A u g 5 - 1 1 , 2 0 1 2
A u g 1 9 - 2 5 , 2 0 1 2
S e p t 2 - 8 , 2 0 1 2
S e p t 1 6 - 2 2 , 2 0 1 2
S e p t 3 0 - O c t 6 , 2 0 1 2
O c t 1 4 - 2 0 , 2 0 1 2
O c t 2 8 - N o v 3 , 2 0 1 2
N o v 1 1 - 1 7 , 2 0 1 2
N o v 2 5 - D e c 1 , 2 0 1 2
D e c 9 - 1 5 , 2 0 1 2
D e c 2 3 - 2 9 , 2 0 1 2
J a n 8 - 1 4 , 2 0 1 3
J a n 2 2 - 2 8 , 2 0 1 3
F e b 5 - 1 1 , 2 0 1 3
F e b 1 9 - 2 5 , 2 0 1 3
M a r 5 - M a r 1 1 , 2 0 1 3
M a r 1 9 - 2 5 , 2 0 1 3
A p r 2 - 8 , 2 0 1 3
A p r 1 6 - 2 2 , 2 0 1 3
A p r 3 0 - M a y 6 , 2 0 1 3
M a y 1 4 - 2 0 , 2 0 1 3
M a y 2 8 - J u n 3 , 2 0 1 3
J u n 1 1 - 1 7 , 2 0 1 3
J u n 2 5 - J u l 1 , 2 0 1 3
J u l 9 - 1 5 , 2 0 1 3
J u l 2 3 - 2 9 , 2 0 1 3
A u g 6 - 1 2 , 2 0 1 3
A u g 2 0 - 2 6 , 2 0 1 3
S e p t 3 - 9 , 2 0 1 3
S e p t 1 7 - 2 3 , 2 0 1 3
O c t 1 - 7 , 2 0 1 3
O c t 1 5 - 2 1 , 2 0 1 3
O c t 2 9 - N o v 4 , 2 0 1 3
N o v 1 2 - 1 8 , 2 0 1 3
N o v 2 6 - D e c 2 , 2 0 1 3
D e c 1 0 - 1 6 , 2 0 1 3
D e c 2 4 - 3 0 , 2 0 1 3
J a n 8 - 1 4 , 2 0 1 4
J a n 2 2 - 2 8 , 2 0 1 4
F e b 5 - 1 1 , 2 0 1 4
F e b 1 9 - 2 5 , 2 0 1 4
M a r 5 - M a r 1 1 , 2 0 1 4
M a r 1 9 - 2 5 , 2 0 1 4
A p r 2 - 8 , 2 0 1 4
A p r 1 6 - 2 2 , 2 0 1 4
A p r 3 0 - M a y 6 , 2 0 1 4
M a y 1 4 - 2 0 , 2 0 1 4
M a y 2 8 - J u n 3 , 2 0 1 4
J u n 1 1 - 1 7 , 2 0 1 4
J u n 2 5 - J u l 1 , 2 0 1 4
J u l 9 - 1 5 , 2 0 1 4
J u l 2 3 - 2 9 , 2 0 1 4
A u g 1 3 - 1 9 , 2 0 1 4
A u g 2 7 - S e p t 2 , 2 0 1 4
S e p t 1 0 - 1 6 , 2 0 1 4
O c t 1 - 7 , 2 0 1 4
O c t 1 5 - 2 1 , 2 0 1 4
O c t 2 9 - N o v 4 , 2 0 1 4
N o v 2 6 - D e c 1 , 2 0 1 4
D e c 1 0 - 1 6 , 2 0 1 4
J a n 1 - 7 , 2 0 1 5
J a n 1 5 - 2 1 , 2 0 1 5
J a n 2 9 - F e b 4 , 2 0 1 5
For tracking purposes, approval ratings in the above graphic reflect weekly roll-ups of our tracking data (a 7-day period), rather than the 5-day period reflected throughout this topline document
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CORE POLITICAL APPROVALIn your opinion, which political party has a better plan, policy or approach to each of the following?(n=1,249)
All Adults (n=1,249) Democratic
Party
Republican
Party Independents Other None Don’t know
DEM/
PARTY
Healthcare 30% 25% 6% 1% 14% 25% 5%
The war on terror 18% 30% 6% 2% 17% 28% -12
Iran 16% 24% 5% 2% 18% 34% -8%
The US Economy 26% 26% 7% 1% 15% 25% 1%
Immigration 22% 30% 5% 3% 15% 25% -8%
Social Security 28% 19% 6% 2% 17% 27% 9%
Medicare 31% 20% 5% 1% 17% 26% 12
Taxes 25% 27% 6% 2% 15% 25% -2%
Gay marriage 33% 16% 7% 1% 14% 28% 16
Jobs and employment 30% 24% 5% 3% 13% 24% 7%The federal government deficit 21% 23% 8% 2% 19% 28% -3%
Supporting small businesses 24% 22% 10% 2% 13% 29% 2%
Education 29% 21% 5% 1% 16% 29% 8%
Foreign policy 21% 27% 7% 2% 15% 29% -6%
Women’s rights 36% 16% 7% 1% 13% 28% 20
The environment 31% 16% 10% 2% 14% 28% 15
Israel 17% 25% 5% 2% 16% 35% -8%
Syria 16% 24% 5% 1% 18% 36% -8%
Energy policy 26% 19% 6% 2% 14% 32% 7%
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36%33%
31% 31% 30% 30% 29% 28%26% 26% 25% 24%
22% 21% 21%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
In your opinion, which political party has a better plan, policy or approach to each of the following?(n=1,249)
Democratic Party
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In your opinion, which political party has a better plan, policy or approach to each of the following?(n=1,249)
Republican Party
30% 30%27% 27% 26% 25% 25% 24% 24% 24% 23% 22% 21% 20% 19% 1
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
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20%16% 15%
12%
9% 8% 7% 7%5%
2% 1%
-2%-3%
-6%
-8% -8
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
In your opinion, which political party has a better plan, policy or approach to each of the following?(n=1,249)
Democratic/Republican Party Difference
Democrat Advantage
Republican Advantage
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Party IdentificationAll Adults: n= 3,418
13%
19%
7%
7%
14%
12%
14%
8%
6%
39%
33%
14%
14%
Strong Democrat
Moderate Democrat
Lean Democrat
Lean Republican
Moderate Republican
Strong Republican
Independent
None of these
DK
Democrat
Republican
Independent
None/DK
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How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Inte
• The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the paramete
where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample
mean (y ̅) is a natural esmate of the true populaon proporon θ. This model is oen called the likelihood fu
standard concept in both the Bayesian and the Classical framework. The Bayesian 1 statistics combines both tthe likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution represents our opinion ab
plausible values for θ adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is one’s kn
using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior distribu
distribution (π(θ/y)~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.
• Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals repre
which are the most plausible values for θ given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calc
based on π(θ/y). Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to whaClassical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The wo
assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal distribution
interval is given by, approximately:
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How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Inte
For this poll,the Bayesian Credibility Interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for com
Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below.
SAMPLE SIZE CREDIBILITY
INTERVALS
2,000 2.5
1,500 2.9
1,000
3.5
750
4.1
500 5.0
350
6.0
200
7.9
100
11.2
1 Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 20032 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.
Ipsos does not publish data
for base sizes
(sample sizes) below 100.