15
Cochin Shipyard Limited SUBSCRIBE - 1 of 15 - Monday, 31 st July, 2017 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. STOCK POINTER Key Financials (Rs cr) EPS EPS Growth RONW ROCE P/E EV / EBITDA (Rs) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) 2017 2059.5 529.2 312.2 27.6 31.0 15.4 15.0 15.7 5.7 2018E 2797.6 633.4 375.3 27.6 0.2 11.3 11.2 15.6 5.3 2019E 2281.5 516.6 298.1 21.9 -20.6 8.4 8.4 19.7 6.3 2020E 2296.3 519.9 299.3 22.0 0.4 7.9 7.9 19.6 5.9 Y/E Mar Net Revenue EBITDA Adj. PAT IPO price band 424 - 432 Index Details Cochin Shipyard Ltd (CSL) is India’s leading PSU shipyard that has reported strong revenue growth despite the poor performance of the ship building industry, not only globally but also in the domestic market. The primary drivers of revenue growth are the strong order flows from the defense sector (64% of FY17 revenues) and the ship repair vertical. CSL has been able to grow despite the poor industry outlook. The existing order booj from defense (including the IAC Phase II) and commercial operations along with steady business from the ship repair vertical augurs well fro the business prospects going forward. CSL is also undertaking capex to set up a new dry dock and ISRF (International Ship Repair Facility) which should cater to increased revenues with an expectation of improved profitability. The proposed issue is for an aggregate amount of 3,39,84,000 no of shares of Rs 10 each. This includes an offer for sale of 1,13,28,000 shares and the balance 2,26,56,000 by issue of fresh equity. This is being offered to the public at a price range of Rs 424 per share (lower price band) to Rs 432 per share (upper price band). The retail portion has a discount of Rs 21 per share (or its pricing is at Rs 403 per share at the lower band and Rs 411 at the upper band). The valuation on a trailing basis works out to 15.7 and 15.4 FY17 PE at the upper and lower band. For the retail segment the valuation works out to 14.9 / 14.6 (upper band / lower band) FY17 trailing PE. We recommend a subscribe for listing gains. Sensex 32,514 Nifty 10,077 Industry Ship Building & Ship Repair Scrip Details BVPS () 179 O/s Shares (Cr) 13.59 Price band 424-432 FVPS () 10 Shareholding Pattern Shareholdrs Post % Promoters 25.0 Public 75.0 Total 100.0

IPO price bandstocksmantra.in/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/... · 2019-07-08 · 2017 2059.5 529.2 312.2 27.6 31.0 15.4 15.0 15.7 5.7 ... has been able to grow despite the poor industry

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    1

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: IPO price bandstocksmantra.in/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/... · 2019-07-08 · 2017 2059.5 529.2 312.2 27.6 31.0 15.4 15.0 15.7 5.7 ... has been able to grow despite the poor industry

Cochin Shipyard Limited

SUBSCRIBE

- 1 of 15 - Monday, 31st July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

ST

OC

K P

OIN

TE

R

Key Financials (Rs cr)

EPS EPS Growth RONW ROCE P/E EV / EBITDA

(Rs) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x)

2017 2059.5 529.2 312.2 27.6 31.0 15.4 15.0 15.7 5.7

2018E 2797.6 633.4 375.3 27.6 0.2 11.3 11.2 15.6 5.3

2019E 2281.5 516.6 298.1 21.9 -20.6 8.4 8.4 19.7 6.3

2020E 2296.3 519.9 299.3 22.0 0.4 7.9 7.9 19.6 5.9

Y/E Mar

Net

RevenueEBITDA Adj. PAT

IPO price band ₹424 - ₹ 432

Index Details Cochin Shipyard Ltd (CSL) is India’s leading PSU shipyard that has

reported strong revenue growth despite the poor performance of the ship

building industry, not only globally but also in the domestic market. The

primary drivers of revenue growth are the strong order flows from the

defense sector (64% of FY17 revenues) and the ship repair vertical. CSL

has been able to grow despite the poor industry outlook. The existing

order booj from defense (including the IAC Phase II) and commercial

operations along with steady business from the ship repair vertical

augurs well fro the business prospects going forward. CSL is also

undertaking capex to set up a new dry dock and ISRF (International Ship

Repair Facility) which should cater to increased revenues with an

expectation of improved profitability.

The proposed issue is for an aggregate amount of 3,39,84,000 no of

shares of Rs 10 each. This includes an offer for sale of 1,13,28,000

shares and the balance 2,26,56,000 by issue of fresh equity. This is being

offered to the public at a price range of Rs 424 per share (lower price

band) to Rs 432 per share (upper price band). The retail portion has a

discount of Rs 21 per share (or its pricing is at Rs 403 per share at the

lower band and Rs 411 at the upper band). The valuation on a trailing

basis works out to 15.7 and 15.4 FY17 PE at the upper and lower band.

For the retail segment the valuation works out to 14.9 / 14.6 (upper band /

lower band) FY17 trailing PE.

We recommend a subscribe for listing gains.

Sensex 32,514

Nifty 10,077

Industry Ship Building

& Ship Repair

Scrip Details

BVPS (₹) 179

O/s Shares (Cr) 13.59

Price band 424-432

FVPS (₹) 10

Shareholding Pattern

Shareholdrs Post %

Promoters 25.0

Public 75.0

Total 100.0

Page 2: IPO price bandstocksmantra.in/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/... · 2019-07-08 · 2017 2059.5 529.2 312.2 27.6 31.0 15.4 15.0 15.7 5.7 ... has been able to grow despite the poor industry

- 2 of 15- Monday 31st July,2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Company Backround

Cochin Shipyard Ltd (CSL) was incorporated in the year 1972 as a wholly owned

Government of India undertaking. In the last three decades the company has

emerged as a forerunner in the Indian ship building & ship repair industry. CSL is

the largest public sector shipyard in India in terms of dock capacity. Further, CSL is

number 1 ship repairer by market share. It can build ships upto 1,10,000 DWT and

repair ships upto 1,25,000 DWT. In 2008, CSL was conferred with the 'Mini Ratna'

status.

Business Verticals Cochin Shipyard Ltd

Source: CSL , Ventura Research

Cochin Shipyard Ltd

Revenue FY 17

Rs 2059.5 crores

Ship Building

Revenue FY 17

Rs 1513.7 crores

Defence Sector Client

69.5% of Average operating Revenue

of Last 5 Fiscal

Commercial Clients

12.7% of Average operating Revenue

of Last 5 Fiscal

Ship Repair

Revenue FY 17

Rs 545.8 crores

Defence Sector Clients

10.5% of Average operating Revenue of

Last 5 Fiscal

Commercial Clients

7.3% of Average operating Revenue

of Last 5 Fiscal

Page 3: IPO price bandstocksmantra.in/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/... · 2019-07-08 · 2017 2059.5 529.2 312.2 27.6 31.0 15.4 15.0 15.7 5.7 ... has been able to grow despite the poor industry

- 3 of 15- Monday 31st July,2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Key Investment Highlights Order Book Momentum for the ship building may sustain going forward

The current order book of CSL stands at Rs 3078.3 crore. We have assumed order inflow and revenue booking as given below:

CSL Order Book (Rs in crores)

Particulars FY 18 FY 19 FY 20

Order Book start of Fiscal Year (A) 3,078.3 4,312.4 3,000.0

IAC - Phase II 1,403.8

Others

Vessel fro GoI 383.0

Two 500 Passenger & 150 ton Cargo Vessel 472.5

Two 1200 Passenger & 1000 ton Cargo Vessel 819.0

Revenue Booking (B) 2,265.9 1,812.4 1,822.2

IAC - Phase II 1,403.8

Others

Vessel fro GoI 383.0

Two 500 Passenger & 150 ton Cargo Vessel 184.6 184.6 103.2

Two 1200 Passenger & 1000 ton Cargo Vessel 294.4 294.4 219.0

IAC - Phase III 1,333.3 1,500.0

Others (from new other orders) 74.9

New Order Addition # (C) 3,500.0 500.0 500.0

IAC Phase III 3,275.2

Other Projects 224.8 500.0 500.0

Order Book Carried Forward ( A )+( C )-( B ) 4,312.4 3,000.0 1,677.8

Source: CSL , Ventura Research

# These are Ventura estimates only and not company estimates

While the Phase II of Indigenous Aircraft Carrier (IAC) has been primarily

responsible for bulk of the order booking, signing of Phase III of IAC will help

sustain the momentum. Since the IAC work of Phase I and Phase II has been

awarded to CSL and they have executed satisfactorily, it is only logical that Phase

III would be awarded to them, in our view. We expect Phase III to be awarded in

FY18 itself, however the timeline is subject to signing of the contract between

Indian Navy and CSL and could be deferred. Our assumption of new order booking

is a rough estimate and subject to revisions on either side.

Historically the revenues have grown at a secular trend barring for FY15 and FY17

given the lumpy nature of the order booking. We expect FY18 to be a record year

Page 4: IPO price bandstocksmantra.in/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/... · 2019-07-08 · 2017 2059.5 529.2 312.2 27.6 31.0 15.4 15.0 15.7 5.7 ... has been able to grow despite the poor industry

- 4 of 15- Monday 31st July,2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

for revenue growth with a 54.6% yoy growth to Rs 2340.8 crores in FY18. This

sharp spurt is on account of large number of projects lined up for completion. In

comparison to this high growth in FY18, revenues for FY19 at Rs 1812.4 cr and

FY20 at Rs 1822.2 crore may appear muted, but they are far higher than the

highest annual revenues clocked historically.

Despite the Indian Shipbuilding Order Book contracting CSL’s shipbuilding Revenue have continued to grow

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

3500

3700

3900

4100

CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15

Domestic Ship building order book in '000 DWT

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

Ship Building revenue (in Rs Crores)

Source: CSL,Ventura Research

Source: CSL, Ventura Research

We are optimistic of the strong order book momentum continuing given the

following.

Strong order book despite the downtrend in the ship building industry

prevailing both globally and in the domestic markets.

Increased defense spending to benefit CSL

Nearly 89% of total business contribution is from the Navy and Coast Guard. With

the Modi Government emphasizing on enhancing defense preparedness, strong

order flows are expected from the armed forces.

Make in India initiative augurs well for the ship building industry

CSL is in a good position to benefit from the ‘Make in India’ initiative introduced by

the GoI. For instance, Gas Authority of India has signed contracts to buy LNG from

suppliers in the US. Transporting this gas will require large specialised LNG

carriers. As part of the ‘Make in India’ campaign, the Government of India is keen

that one-third of the total number of ships should be built by Indian shipyards.

Outlook for commercial ship building is very promising given thurst on

coastal shipping and inland waterways

Page 5: IPO price bandstocksmantra.in/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/... · 2019-07-08 · 2017 2059.5 529.2 312.2 27.6 31.0 15.4 15.0 15.7 5.7 ... has been able to grow despite the poor industry

- 5 of 15- Monday 31st July,2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Inland waterways accounts for only 3% of India’s total transport, compared with

47% in China and 44% in the European Union. The government’s initiative to

develop inland waterways is a big business opportunity for the Indian shipbuilding

industry. The Government of India intends to develop 101 inland waterways, which

may lead to the increase in demand for dredgers and small bulk carrier vessels. We

also expect a growth in demand for commercial vessels from regional port trusts,

Indian PSUs and corporates globally.

Dominant market share in domestic ship repair segment

CSL has developed adequate capabilities to handle 50 complex and sophisticated

repair jobs. They have also entered into special MoU arrangements to enhance the

ship repair business. In Fiscal 2016, major repair works for commercial clients

included work on the GTV Samudra Sarvekshak and the WSV Samudhra Nidhi for

SCI, and on the Dredge VIII and Dredge XIX for the DCI and MV Kavaratti for

LDCL. In the last Fiscal, their docks were running at full capacity due to which CSL

had to turn down new business requests.

CSL also undertakes ship repair for the Indian Navy and has repaired about 15

Indian Naval Ships, on an average in the fiscal years 2014, 2015 and 2016,

respectively where their scope of work varied from routine to complex works. They

also recently completed refits of INS Aditya, INS Sukanya, INS Shardul, INS Viraat

and INS Vikramaditya for the Indian Navy. They have also undertaken major

revamping and refurbishing of oil rigs involving steel renewal, up-gradation of

drilling, cementing, mechanical, HVAC and piping systems in almost all the major

offshore vessels and rigs of ONGC.

Domestic player in the Ship Repair industry

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

CSL Goa Shipyard

Kakinada L&T Hindustan ABG Shipyard

Market Share in %

Source: CSL, Ventura Research

Page 6: IPO price bandstocksmantra.in/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/... · 2019-07-08 · 2017 2059.5 529.2 312.2 27.6 31.0 15.4 15.0 15.7 5.7 ... has been able to grow despite the poor industry

- 6 of 15- Monday 31st July,2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

CSL’s ship repair revenue continue to grow

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY17 FY18E FY 19E FY 20E

Ship Repair revenue (in Rs Crores)

Source: CSL, Ventura Research

Historically revenue from ship repair has been volatile for period FY12 - FY15 but

have shown a solid growth for the past couple of years. Sans any guidance from

the company we have assumed slightly lower revenue booking for the forecast

period at Rs 445 crores for FY18, Rs 460 crores for FY19 and Rs 465 cr for FY20.

Overall we expect strong revenue growth considering the bullish outlook for both

the ship building and ship repair verticals. Revenues from FY12- FY17 grew at

CAGR of 8% to Rs 2059.4 crores from Rs 1406.5 crores. Going forward we expect

revenues to grow at Rs 2797.6 crores for FY18, Rs 2281.5 crores for FY19 and Rs

2296.3 cr for FY20.

Strong revenue growth on cards

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY17 FY18E FY 19E FY 20EIndigenious Aircraft Carrier Vessels Other than IAC Ship Repairs

Other Operating Revenue Engineering Works

Rs in Crores

Source: CSL, Ventura Research

Page 7: IPO price bandstocksmantra.in/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/... · 2019-07-08 · 2017 2059.5 529.2 312.2 27.6 31.0 15.4 15.0 15.7 5.7 ... has been able to grow despite the poor industry

- 7 of 15- Monday 31st July,2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Profitability moves in tandem with revenue growth

EBITDA over the period FY12-FY17 has grown at CAGR of 14.8% to Rs 529 crores from Rs 265 in FY12. We expect EBITDA to be at Rs 633.4 crores, 516.6 crores and 519.9 crores over FY18, FY19 and FY20. Further conservatively, we expect CSL to earn EBITDA margins of around 22.7% over the forecast period.

PAT over the period FY12-FY17 have grown at CAGR of 15% to Rs 312 crores from Rs 155 crores in FY12. We expect PAT to be at Rs 375.3 crores, 298.1 crores and 299.3 crores over FY18, FY19 and FY20. Further, we expect CSL to clock PAT Margins of 13.3%, 13.0% and 12.9% for FY18, FY19, FY20 respectively.

Capex to enhance Dry Dock capacity and setting up an International Ship Repair Facility augurs well long term growth

New Dry dock

CSL production capacity is limited to the construction of vessels of up to

110,000 DWT and ship-repairing of up to 125,000 DWT at its existing

facilities. To cater to new business opportunities CSL has undertaken capex

to cater to ships of larger size. The dry dock is estimated to be completed in

36 months and the budgeted cost is estimated to cost Rs. 1,798.99 crores.

Besides VLCC’s, the proposed Dry Dock will cater to build and repair ships

of higher capacity and large naval vessels such as aircraft carriers. Further,

the greater width of Dry Dock will also enable to undertake building and

repair of rigs.

EBITDA and EBITDA Margins PAT and PAT Margins

e

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20

EBITDA EBITDA Margins

Rs in Crores in %

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20

PAT PAT Margins

Rs in Crores in %

Source: RBL Source: CSL, Ventura Research

Source: CSL, Ventura Research

Page 8: IPO price bandstocksmantra.in/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/... · 2019-07-08 · 2017 2059.5 529.2 312.2 27.6 31.0 15.4 15.0 15.7 5.7 ... has been able to grow despite the poor industry

- 8 of 15- Monday 31st July,2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Cochin Shipyard Layout

Source: CSL, Ventura Research

Cost of development of Dry Dock

Specification Cost Estimate (in US $ crores)

Civil and Structure Works 13.5

Mechanical and Electrical Works 3.3

Other dock equipment 5.5

Equipment outside of main contract 0.4

Additonal Goliath Crane (optional) 2.6

Dry Dock Project Consultant Fees 0.6

Contingency at 3% 0.7

Total 26.5

Contract Value in Rs crores (at Rs/USD 67.8) 1,798.9

Source: CSL, Ventura Research

Page 9: IPO price bandstocksmantra.in/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/... · 2019-07-08 · 2017 2059.5 529.2 312.2 27.6 31.0 15.4 15.0 15.7 5.7 ... has been able to grow despite the poor industry

- 9 of 15- Monday 31st July,2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

International Ship Repair Facility (ISRF)

To be able to cater to the growing demand of ship repair, CSL is in the process of

setting up the ISRF, a new facility exclusively for ship repair near their existing

premises. For this CSL has leased approximately 8.12 hectares of land and 15

hectares of water body from CoPT (Cochin Port Trust) for a period of 30 years

pursuant to the lease deed dated April 12, 2013. Since then, they have begun using

the existing dry dock and allied facilities in the leased area for carrying out ship

repair in a limited way. The ISRF will comprise of a ship-lift, transfer system and

allied facilities to be built at an estimated investment of Rs 969.4 crore. The project

has received approval from GoI. However work is yet to started sans certain

clearance still pending.

Cost of development of ISRF

Specification Total Cost excluding taxes (in Rs crores)

Sea Side works 277.0

Land Side Works 322.9

Mechanical Works 21.1

Electrical Works 22.7

Technological Equipment and Ship Lift 274.1

Contingencies at 3% 27.5

ISRF Project Consultation fees 24.2

Total 969.4

Source: CSL, Ventura Research

Issue Structure & Valuation

The proposed CSL issue is for an aggregate amount of 3,39,84,000 no of shares of Rs 10 each. This includes an offer for sale of 1,13,28,000 shares and the balance 2,26,56,000 by issue of fresh equity. This is being offered to the public at a price range of Rs 424 per share (lower price band) to Rs 432 per share (upper price band). The offer is as proposed below:

Page 10: IPO price bandstocksmantra.in/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/... · 2019-07-08 · 2017 2059.5 529.2 312.2 27.6 31.0 15.4 15.0 15.7 5.7 ... has been able to grow despite the poor industry

- 10 of 15- Monday 31st July,2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Issue Structure – Cochin Shipyard Ltd

Category No of Shares offered Percentage of Shares offered

Eligible Employees 8,24,000 2.4%

QIBS 1,65,80,000 48.8%

Non Institutional Builders 49,74,000 14.6%

Retail 1,16,06,000 34.2%

Total 3,39,84,000 100.0%

Source: CSL, Ventura Research

The retail portion has a discount of Rs 21 per share (or its pricing is at Rs 403 per share at the lower band and Rs 411 at the upper band). The valuation on a trailing basis works out to 15.7 and 15.4 FY17 PE at the upper and lower band. For the retail segment the valuation works out to 14.9 / 14.6 (upper band / lower band) FY17 trailing PE.

Key Risks

Failure to deliver on projects and acquire new commercial projects

Order inflows tend to be lumpy and any delay in signing the IAC Phase III contract would severely impact order book

Delay in commissioning of Proposed Dry Dock and ISRF

Any delays in obtaining regulatory approvals and hinderances in completion of the projects would adversely affect the timeline for completion. It is assured, if Proposed Dry Dock or International Ship Repair Facility will become operational as scheduled, or shall be operational, or operate as efficiently as planned. As on date CSL has obtained certain licenses or approvals for proposed ISRF project for which funds are being raised through the Issue .However, CSL shall transfer the Net Proceeds assigned for the proposed ISRF project to a separate bank account and shall incur all expenditure on the ISRF project through internal accruals till the time such pending approvals are received. However, if CSL is unable to commission the new proposed Dry Dock or the ISRF in a timely manner or without cost overruns, business, results of operations and financial condition may be adversely affected.

Page 11: IPO price bandstocksmantra.in/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/... · 2019-07-08 · 2017 2059.5 529.2 312.2 27.6 31.0 15.4 15.0 15.7 5.7 ... has been able to grow despite the poor industry

- 11 of 15- Monday 31st July,2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

STRENGTH

One of India's leading public-sector shipyards catering to both commercial clients as well as clients engaged in the defence sector with a multitude of offerings for a broad range of vessels across life cycles

Modern facilities and infrastructure and integrated capabilities to deliver quality products and services

Order book with a strong customer base of reputable ship owners and marquee clients

Competitive cost structure and efficient operations

Continuous profits leading to robust financial performance

WEAKNESS

Worldwide demand and pricing in the commercial shipbuilding industry are highly dependent upon global economic conditions. If the global economy fails to grow at an adequate pace, it may adversely impact the commercial shipbuilding industry which may negatively affect the business, financial condition and growth prospects.

Loss of any major customers or a reduction in their orders, or failure to succeed in tendering for shipbuilding or ship repair projects for the Indian Navy in the future, despite its previous track record will have a material adverse impact on its business, financial condition, results of operations and growth prospects as it is dependent on a few of major customers..

Future growth and expansion is limited by the production capacities and the location at which it operates

The entire business operations are based out of a single shipyard at Kochi. The loss of, or shutdown of, our operations at our shipyard in Kochi will have a material adverse effect on the business, financial condition and results of operations..

Page 12: IPO price bandstocksmantra.in/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/... · 2019-07-08 · 2017 2059.5 529.2 312.2 27.6 31.0 15.4 15.0 15.7 5.7 ... has been able to grow despite the poor industry

- 12 of 15- Monday 31st July,2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

OPPORTUNITY

Expand the capabilities through proposed Dry Dock and International Ship Repair Facility

Build a strong order book by bidding vigorously for projects to be awarded by the Indian PSUs and defence sector pursuant to ‘Make in India’ initiative

Continue to enhance the construction quality and delivery time and enhance price competitiveness in order to increase the market share

Strengthen the market leadership by continuously adding upgraded and new vessel models to the offerings and expanding customer services.

Continue to leverage the market position and relationships with customers, suppliers and other business partners to support the growth and improve competitiveness.

THREAT

The business is highly dependent on the growth of India and global trade activities for raw materials such as crude oil, coal and iron ore.

Changing laws, rules and regulations and

legal uncertainties, including adverse application of tax laws and regulations, may adversely affect the business, results of operations and cash flows.

Business may be affected by competition law in India and any adverse application or interpretation of the Competition Act could in turn adversely affect the business.

The exit by the UK from the European Union

has and could further impact global financial markets which could in turn adversely affect the trading prices of our Equity Shares.

Page 13: IPO price bandstocksmantra.in/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/... · 2019-07-08 · 2017 2059.5 529.2 312.2 27.6 31.0 15.4 15.0 15.7 5.7 ... has been able to grow despite the poor industry

- 13 of 15- Monday 31st July,2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Peers in the Industry

Source: CSL, Ventura Research

Peer Comparison (Rs in crores)

Cochin Shipyard Ltd

2017 2059.5 529.2 312.2 25.7% 15.2% 15.4 15.0 15.7 5.7

2018E 2797.6 633.4 375.3 22.6% 13.4% 11.3 11.2 15.6 5.3

2019E 2281.5 516.6 298.1 22.6% 13.1% 8.4 8.4 19.7 6.3

Reliance Defense Ltd

2017 563.3 34.2 -577.3 6.1% -102.5% -39.9 -1.7 - 387.5

2018E 723.1 64.1 -409.9 8.9% -56.7% -18.3 -1.3 - 220.7

2019E 867.8 85.4 -383.3 9.8% -44.2% -18.9 -1.3 - 164.8

ROE (%) ROCE (%) P/E EV/EBITDAY/E March Sales EBITDA PATEBITDA

Margin (%)

PAT

Margin (%)

Source: CSL, Ventura Research

Page 14: IPO price bandstocksmantra.in/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/... · 2019-07-08 · 2017 2059.5 529.2 312.2 27.6 31.0 15.4 15.0 15.7 5.7 ... has been able to grow despite the poor industry

- 14 of 15- Monday 31st July,2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Y/E March, Fig in ̀crores FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Y/E March, Fig in ̀crores FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

Profit & Loss Statement Per Share Data (Rs)

Net Sales 2059.5 2797.6 2281.5 2296.3 Adj. EPS 27.6 27.6 21.9 22.0

% Chg. 35.8 (18.4) 0.6 Cash EPS 31.0 31.0 25.4 25.6

Total Expenditure 1679.3 2304.0 1879.0 1891.2 DPS 9.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

% Chg. 37.2 (18.4) 0.6 Book Value 179.3 244.0 261.0 278.0

EBITDA 380.2 493.5 402.5 405.1 Capital, Liquidity, Returns Ratio

EBITDA Margin % 29.8 (18.4) 0.6 Debt / Equity (x) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other Income 149.0 139.9 114.1 114.8 Current Ratio (x) 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.5

PBDIT 529.2 633.4 516.6 519.9 ROE (%) 15.4 11.3 8.4 7.9

Depreciation 38.5 45.5 47.4 48.9 ROCE (%) 15.0 11.2 8.4 7.9

Interest 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 Dividend Yield (%) 2.1 1.2 1.2 1.2

Exceptional items - - - Valuation Ratio (x)

PBT 480.2 577.4 458.7 460.5 P/E 15.7 15.6 19.7 19.6

Tax Provisions 168.0 202.1 160.5 161.2 P/BV 2.4 1.8 1.7 1.6

Reported PAT 312.2 375.3 298.1 299.3 EV/Sales 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.3

Minority Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 EV/EBIDTA 5.7 5.3 6.3 5.9

Share of Associate Efficiency Ratio (x)

PAT 312.2 375.3 298.1 299.3 Inventory (days) 33 45 45 45

PAT Margin (%) 15.2 13.4 13.1 13.0 Debtors (days) 54 70 70 70

RM / Sales (%) 48.3 51.0 51.0 51.0 Creditors (days) 59 67 67 67

Tax Rate (%) 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0

Balance Sheet Cash Flow Statement

Share Capital 113.3 135.9 135.9 135.9 Profit After Tax 312.2 375.3 298.1 299.3

Reserves & Surplus 1917.7 3181.1 3411.3 3642.6 Depreciation 38.5 45.5 47.4 48.9

Long Term Borrowings 123 123 123 123 Working Capital Changes 0.0 50.8 (113.0) (33.3)

Long Term Provision 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 Others (138.5) (129.3) (103.5) (104.3)

Other Non Current Liabilities 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 Operating Cash Flow 212.3 342.2 129.0 210.6

Total Liabilities 2178.0 3464.1 3694.3 3925.6 Capital Expenditure (40.4) (732.5) (60.0) (60.0)

Gross Block Other Investment Activities 105.2 139.9 114.1 114.8

Less: Acc. Depreciation Cash Flow from Investing 64.8 (592.6) 54.1 54.8

Net Block 356.8 1043.7 1056.4 1067.4 IPO Proceeds - 978.74

Goodwill on consolidation 67.8 67.8 67.8 67.8 Others 2.31

Deferred Tax Assets (Net) 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 Dividend and Interest (114.8) (78.5) (78.5) (78.5)

Non Current Investments 60.7 60.7 60.7 60.7 Cash Flow from Financing (112.5) 900.2 (78.5) (78.5)

Long term Loans & Advances 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Net Change in Cash 164.5 649.8 104.6 186.9

Net Current Assets 1667.0 2266.1 2483.7 2703.9 Opening Cash Balance 1,826.8 1,991.3 2,641.1 2,745.7

Total Assets 2178.0 3464.1 3694.3 3925.6 Closing Cash Balance 1,991.3 2,641.1 2,745.7 2,932.6

Financial Projections

Page 15: IPO price bandstocksmantra.in/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/... · 2019-07-08 · 2017 2059.5 529.2 312.2 27.6 31.0 15.4 15.0 15.7 5.7 ... has been able to grow despite the poor industry

- 15 of 15- Monday 31st July,2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Disclosures and Disclaimer Ventura Securities Limited (VSL) is a SEBI registered intermediary offering broking, depository and portfolio management services to clients. VSL is member of BSE, NSE and MCX-SX. VSL is a depository participant of NSDL. VSL states that no disciplinary action whatsoever has been taken by SEBI against it in last five years except administrative warning issued in connection with technical and venial lapses observed while inspection of books of accounts and records. Ventura Commodities Limited, Ventura Guaranty Limited, Ventura Insurance Brokers Limited and Ventura Allied Services Private Limited are associates of VSL. Research Analyst (RA) involved in the preparation of this research report and VSL disclose that neither RA nor VSL nor its associates (i) have any financial interest in the company which is the subject matter of this research report (ii) holds ownership of one percent or more in the securities of subject company (iii) have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this research report (iv) have received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months (v) have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in past twelve months (vi) have received any compensation for investment banking merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months (vii) have received any compensation for product or services from the subject company in the past twelve months (viii) have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. RA involved in the preparation of this research report discloses that he / she has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. RA involved in the preparation of this research report and VSL discloses that they have not been engaged in the market making activity for the subject company. Our sales people, dealers, traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein. We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on the companies covered herein with recommendations/ information inconsistent or different those made in this report. In reviewing this document, you should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest. We may rely on information barriers, such as "Chinese Walls" to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us, or other areas, units, groups or affiliates of VSL. This report is for information purposes only and this document/material should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein. It is for the general information of the clients / prospective clients of VSL. VSL will not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of clients / prospective clients. Similarly, this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation/circumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor's individual circumstances and objectives. Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for his/ her/their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional/financial advice. And such person shall be responsible for conducting his/her/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in the securities forming the subject matter of this document. The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results, and such variances will likely increase over time. All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company. These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accepted accounting principles. No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts. You should not regard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by VSL, its associates, the authors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved. For these reasons, you should only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report, including the assumptions underlying such projections and forecasts. The price and value of the investments referred to in this document/material and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capital may occur. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. We do not provide tax advice to our clients, and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potential investment. VSL, the RA involved in the preparation of this research report and its associates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. This report/document has been prepared by VSL, based upon information available to the public and sources, believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty, express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete. VSL has reviewed the report and, in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The opinions expressed in this document/material are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change. This report or recommendations or information contained herein do/does not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessible media and should not be reproduced, transmitted or published by the recipient. The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only. This publication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of VSL. This report or any portion hereof may not be printed, sold or distributed without the written consent of VSL. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information, may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of VSL and are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of this report and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, estimate or projection. This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of, or by arrangement with the company or any of its directors or any other person. Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or its directors or any other person. Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors. None of the company or its directors or any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized reading, dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized. Please ensure that you have read “Risk Disclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segments” as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in Securities Market. Ventura Securities Limited

Corporate Office: 8th Floor, ‘B’ Wing, I Think Techno Campus, Pokhran Road no. 02, Off Eastern Express Highway , Thane (West) 400 607.