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F R A N K F U R T A M M A I N , 1 0 T H N O V E M B E R 2 0 0 8
T H E I P O A S A S T R A T E G I C F I N A N C I N G O P T I O N
Oliver Diehl, Director
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Name and company address: Cazenove AG Neue Mainzer Straße 28 D-60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany Switchboard +49 (0) 69 505 0049-0 www.cazenove.comCommercial register: AG Frankfurt am Main HRB 53860 VAT ID: DE220772442 Tax ID: 04523012965
D E U T S C H E S E I G E N K A P I T A L F O R U M
Important information
This material has been prepared by Cazenove AG, or an affiliate thereof (“Cazenove”).
This material is for distribution only under such circumstance as may be permitted by applicable law. It has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. It is published solely for information purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein, nor is it intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the materials. It should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. Any opinions expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by other business areas or groups of Cazenove as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. Cazenove is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. Cazenove, its directors, officers and employees or clients may have or have had interests or long or short positions in the securities or other financial instruments referred to herein and may at any time make purchases and/or sales in them as principal or agent. Cazenove may act or have acted as market-maker in the securities or other financial instruments discussed in this material. Furthermore, Cazenove may have or have had a relationship with or may provide or has provided investment banking, capital markets and/or other financial services to the relevant companies. Neither Cazenove nor any of its affiliates, nor any of Cazenove’s or any of its affiliates’, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.
© 2008 Cazenove. All rights reserved. Cazenove specifically prohibits the redistribution of this material and accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
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Agenda
Page
D E U T S C H E S E I G E N K A P I T A L F O R U M
Overview of ECM markets and IPO environment
IPO structure and process
Financing alternatives in a different environment
2
2
12
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D E U T S C H E S E I G E N K A P I T A L F O R U M
Current situation of German Prime Standard IPO market
Germany postpones Deutsche Bahn IPO. „Given the extreme uncertainty on the financial markets...“Reuters, 09/10/2008
Schott Solar postpones public offering... indefinitely.
dpa, 22/09/2008Evonik says owners drop Evonik IPO plans for now. .Reuters, 01/04/2008
The current market environment in Germany is moulded by uncertainty and economic downturn
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D E U T S C H E S E I G E N K A P I T A L F O R U M
Investors / diversified financing options
Bond
Investment GradeHigh Yield
Leveraged DebtCommercial Paper
Equity
SharesConvertible Debt
Mezzanine
Debt
Bank loanLeasing
ABSFactoring
Private Placement
Promissory noteUSPP
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NA
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D E U T S C H E S E I G E N K A P I T A L F O R U M
Proactive approach of finance department
Eigenkapital
Verbindlichkeiten
Short-term assets
Long-term assets
Liabilities
Equity
CAPEX financingCAPEX financing
Debt + equitymeasures
Debt + equitymeasures
Debt repayments and strengthening of liquidity
Debt repayments and strengthening of liquidity
Investments Acquisitions Divestiture
COMMUNICATION
Financing concepts should exist ahead of project
Possible financing triggers
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D E U T S C H E S E I G E N K A P I T A L F O R U M
open
Leasing
Open 24/7
US Private Placements
Lunch break
Commercial Banks
Early Christmas vacation
Promissory Note (Schuldschein)
On vacation
Euro Investment Grade Bonds
closed
Mezzanine
Current availability of financing alternatives
closed
Euro High Yield Bonds
Accessing new pools of liquidity has become more difficult
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D E U T S C H E S E I G E N K A P I T A L F O R U M
105.4
40.923.9
6.4
3.3
100.1
141.1
61.7
34.3
8.45.34.6
3.60
50
100
150
200
250
2006 1H2007 2H2007 1H2008 2H2008
0
50
100
150
200
250
Volume and number of German corporate loans by rating class1 Volume and number of German corporate loans by rating class1
How to bypass a liquidity shortage? Consider different options
Source: Dealogic, October 2008¹ Excl. Financial institutions, insurance companies and utilities
Investment Grade (€ bn)
Non-investment grade (€ bn)
Investment Grade (number)
Non investment grade (number)
Not rated (€ bn) Not rated (number)
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D E U T S C H E S E I G E N K A P I T A L F O R U M
Volume and average coupon of bonds1 Volume and average coupon of bonds1
Corporate bonds and US Private Placements (USPP)
3.2
2.1
0.7
1.3
0.5
200.0
136.3
109.0
121.9137.8
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008³
0
50
100
150
200
250
Volume and average price of USPPs1,2 Volume and average price of USPPs1,2
$ bn
10.0
5.4
0.7
7.5
5.55.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2006 2007 2008
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
€ bn bps%
Volume and conditions depend heavily on each other
Source: Cazenove analysis, Bloomberg¹ Excl. Financial institutions, insurance companies and utilities² Average of 10 year bullet³ 2008 not representative, only one transaction so far
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D E U T S C H E S E I G E N K A P I T A L F O R U M
Leasing
Source: BDL, ifo Institut. August 2008
Development of leasing volumeDevelopment of leasing volume
Source: Annual report BDL 07/08¹ Expectation of BDL, press release
5.7 7.5 7.1 7.1
44.344.9
50.356.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2006 2007 1H2008¹
Volume movables-leasing
Volume property-leasing
Business cycle test for movables-leasingBusiness cycle test for movables-leasing
Leasing volume increased despite subdued business cycle expactations
ifo business situation
ifo business expectations
ifo business climate
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
(10)
(20)
01 2
006
05 2
006
09 2
006
01 2
007
05 2
007
09 2
007
01 2
008
05 2
008
09 2
008
9
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D E U T S C H E S E I G E N K A P I T A L F O R U M
Why issue public equity?
Raise capital
Establish market value (IPO)
Provide liquidity or exit strategy for investors
Increase financial and strategic flexibility through access to capital markets
Enhance public visibility and credibility
Management/employee incentive
BenefitsBenefits
Ongoing investor scrutiny and quarterly reporting
High level of focus on earnings visibility, growth and margin expansion potential
Disclosure of potentially competitive information
Increased corporate governance
Dilution; expensive form of capital
ConsiderationsConsiderations
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Objectives of an IPO
IPO
Optimise proceeds
Optimise value of retained ownership
Create positive market momentum facilitating future offerings
Broaden share ownership/create liquidity for subsequent sales
Optimise proceeds
Optimise value of retained ownership
Create positive market momentum facilitating future offerings
Broaden share ownership/create liquidity for subsequent sales
Execute a successful offering
Raise capital for expansion of the business (if primary)
Establish attractive, sustainable market valuation
Obtain a broad-based, sophisticated shareholder base
Raise company profile
Strong aftermarket performance will facilitate future fund raising and corporate action
Achieve broad research sponsorship
Create capital strength in the Company, benefiting commercial negotiations with customers and suppliers
Create vehicle for management incentivisation
Execute a successful offering
Raise capital for expansion of the business (if primary)
Establish attractive, sustainable market valuation
Obtain a broad-based, sophisticated shareholder base
Raise company profile
Strong aftermarket performance will facilitate future fund raising and corporate action
Achieve broad research sponsorship
Create capital strength in the Company, benefiting commercial negotiations with customers and suppliers
Create vehicle for management incentivisation
Secure good value
Establish sizeable holding in company
Optimise share price performance post IPO
Broaden investment portfolio
Selling shareholders Company
Investors
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Agenda
Page
D E U T S C H E S E I G E N K A P I T A L F O R U M
Overview of ECM markets and IPO environment
IPO structure and process
Financing alternatives in a different environment
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What is a successful IPO?
Right equity story
Intrinsic attractions
Positioning vs. peers
Right timing
Launch window / market conditions
Not too early / not too late: past accomplishment vs. remaining upside
Right valuation (for company/selling shareholders and for new investors)
Generate price tension, broad demand
Perception of scarcity value: “must-own” stock vs. “show-me” stock
DeterminantsDeterminants
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What is an IPO process?
A 1-2 months of pre-IPO preparation, followed by…
… 4-6 month exercise
Pricing date known from the first day — moral commitment by all parties to stick to it
Large working group: discipline, accountability and information flows are key
Private/confidential phase followed by public phase
3-4 “go/no go” points
ProcessProcess
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Internal organisation needs to be prepared for the IPO
An IPO is a demanding process
Senior management needs to find the right balance between the necessary running of operations and the involvement in a critical event in the life of the company
Two steps can be taken to make the process smoother
Designate a “project leader” for the IPO is recommended
— “Buffer” between bankers/lawyers/accountants and senior management
— Consistency in action and messages all along the process
Hire/designate, early on, before the IPO process starts, an Investor Relations Officer
— IPO preparation good training for life as a listed company
— Typical profile: internal recruit with good vision of company and proficiency in English, or external hire (e.g. experienced research analyst)
ProcessProcess
1
2
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Project management and working groups for IPO
Company and bookrunners project team
Legal, business and financial due diligence AccountsPreparation of prospectusDrafting of other transaction documents Shareholder agreementsOpinionsCorporate approvalsComfort lettersPublicity and research guidelinesCorporate/legal structure
Capital structureCorporate governanceValuationBusiness plan/ forecastsDevelopment of investment casePreparation of analyst and roadshow presentations
Offer structureTax considerationsSyndicate co-ordinationLiaison with the relevant regulatory authoritiesLock-up
Development of IR and PR strategyInvestor educationRoadshow and bookbuildingAnnouncement of offeringPricing and allocationAftermarket—greenshoe/ stabilisation
Key
wor
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tas
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Key
wor
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ps /
tas
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Documentation/ legal/ accounting
Investment case Offer structure/ listing Marketing/ distribution
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Pre-IPO steps
Review/update business plan
Prepare 3 year consolidated audited IFRS financial statements
Discuss IPO with auditors to identify any issues early on
Consider need to present financial track-record of business
Financial/AccountingFinancial/Accounting
If any acquisitions are envisaged, ideally they should be completed prior to IPO or, as a minimum, parameters should be defined and shareholder approvals obtained pre-IPO
Be aware of need to disclose and explain process in IPO prospectus
Consolidation Consolidation
Appoint working group / deal captain
Consider corporate governance, board structure and composition, and committees
Review internal controls, treasury and financial reporting functions,
Review any litigation, customer/supplier disputes and other contingencies and consider whether/how to resolve pre-IPO
Establishing public company infrastructure/pre-IPO housekeeping Establishing public company infrastructure/pre-IPO housekeeping
Commence search for suitable non-executive directors
Identify Investor Relations Specialist to allow familiarisation with company business before IPO process commences
Identify general counsel
Engage appropriate individuals/advisorsEngage appropriate individuals/advisors
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Key questions to be answered in preparing for an IPO
ValuationFunding requirementsDemandFree float/liquidityGreenshoeIndex impact
ValuationFunding requirementsDemandFree float/liquidityGreenshoeIndex impact
Offer sizeOffer size
Use of proceedsShareholder intentionsNature of sale/sellerOverhang / Lock-ups
Use of proceedsShareholder intentionsNature of sale/sellerOverhang / Lock-ups
Primary vs secondaryPrimary vs secondary
StrategyLeadership positionsOperational track recordSolid financialsBoard & ManagementGrowth / Value / DividendInvestment risks
StrategyLeadership positionsOperational track recordSolid financialsBoard & ManagementGrowth / Value / DividendInvestment risks
Investment caseInvestment case
Optimal valuationBusiness cycle Company objectives Market conditionsInvestor sentiment
Optimal valuationBusiness cycle Company objectives Market conditionsInvestor sentiment
TimingTiming
DomesticInternationalRetailIndexTargetingEmployees
DomesticInternationalRetailIndexTargetingEmployees
Syndicate sizeQuality of researchDistribution capabilitiesAftermarket supportFees
Syndicate sizeQuality of researchDistribution capabilitiesAftermarket supportFees
Single or dual listingPeer groupResearch coverageInvestor accessCorporate GovernanceDisclosure standardsCosts Liquidity
Single or dual listingPeer groupResearch coverageInvestor accessCorporate GovernanceDisclosure standardsCosts Liquidity
ComparablesRelevant multiplesCross check fundamental valuation
ComparablesRelevant multiplesCross check fundamental valuation
Demand poolsDemand pools Syndicate structureSyndicate structure Listing locationListing locationValuationValuation
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Understanding investor criteria is critical for a potential IPO candidate
Management team that has delivered results in the pastManagement has thorough understanding of macro and micro economic trends affecting companyAbility to anticipate changeManagement will be judged by recent performance
Cohesive strategy and superior management
Better product portfolioStrong relationships with customersSuperior marketing clout
Superior revenue growth / scalability
Pricing leverage in marketplaceSuperior business mix of value-added products or servicesCash generating powerAbility to pursue acquisitions and other strategic alternatives
Attractive profitability profile / Well-capitalized balance sheet
Large attractive market / Strong existing market position
Provides attractive base case growth outlook for companyOpportunity to drive growth in market through innovationSuperior product/service portfolio (as evidenced by leading market share)Effective relationships with industry playersStrong brand recognition
What investors look forWhat investors look for ImportanceImportance
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IPO candidates are usually valued using Discounted Cash Flow analysis and/or Market multiples
Methodology Comment
Discounted cash flow
Net present value of forecasted cashflows
Allows to capture 100% of management forecasts
— Highly sensitive to discount rate and terminal value
— Absolute valuation independent from stock market prices
A
Market multiples
Multiple derived from ratio of each peer's valuation over selected accounting figures; multiple then applied to IPO candidate’s accounting figure to derive valuation
Simple and easy to calculate
Utilised by all equity investors
— Lack of exact comparables may be an issue
— Focus on near future (08, 09)
B
Source: Cazenove
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D E U T S C H E S E I G E N K A P I T A L F O R U M
Listing market considerations should not only take company-specific factors into account
Listing market
Key factors are headquarters, production locations, clients, equity story, relevant investors, accounting standards and corporate governance
Existence of relevant quoted peers
Sector familiarity to reduce ‘mispricing’ risk (for IPO and aftermarket)
Investors with thorough understanding of the business
Access to the relevant investors is crucial, in particular to those who will drive offer and demand
Position the company for maximum market valuation
Broad and high-quality research coverage and comparable valuations
Sufficient free-float and liquid market with capacity to effect large capital raisings
Costs of listing on markets vary; tax treatment for selling shareholders
The selection of the right listing market is of the up most importance for future capital raising as well as effective investor access
Parameters for the selection of the listing market
Company specific factors
Peer group
Target investors
Valuation
Liquidity
Cost
Index ImpactKey to capturing demand and investor attention
Increasing focus of passive fund managers on liquid stocks
Growing attention to the world’s major benchmarks
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D E U T S C H E S E I G E N K A P I T A L F O R U M
The right market segment is as important as listing location – transparency levels are key for institutional investors
Prime Standard General Standard Entry Standard
Characteristics
Accounting Requirements
Prospectus Requirements
Publication Requirements
Perceived as the market for "blue chip" stocks in Germany with highest transparency standards
Less transparent than Prime Standard but still regulated market
Young and small companiesFirst step to capital marketLow cost and flexible accessFocus on institutional investors
IFRS (or adequate for Non-EU issuers (1))
National GAAP (for EU issuers)IFRS (or adequate for Non-EU issuers (1))
Non-public offering, i.e. private placement: exposé sufficientPublic offering: BaFin approval needed, WpPG applies – EU passport
Audited annual reportQuarterly reporting to the formal requirements of the Exchange RulesFinancial calendarAt least one analyst conference per yearAd-hoc disclosure also in EnglishDirectors’ dealings
Audited annual reportSemi-annual and interim report Ad-hoc disclosureDirectors’ dealings
Audited annual reportSemi-annual and interim reportNo ad-hoc disclosure but publication of any material development on the websiteCompany profile needs to be updated once a year on the website
Official Market / Regulated Market Open Market
EU-Regulated Market Regulated Unofficial Market
IFRS (or adequate for Non-EU issuers (1))
(1) US GAAP, Canadian GAAP or Japanese GAAP
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D E U T S C H E S E I G E N K A P I T A L F O R U M
Cazenove will add value at every stage of IPO execution process
Structuring
Business plan
Capital structure
Management and board
Audited accounts
Due diligence
Analyst presentation
Structuring
Business plan
Capital structure
Management and board
Audited accounts
Due diligence
Analyst presentation
Management presentation
Research notes
Flagship investors
Management presentation
Research notes
Flagship investors
Preliminary prospectus
Regulator sign-off
Sales force briefing
Announce-ment
Analysts visit
Demand profile
Indicative price range
Preliminary prospectus
Regulator sign-off
Sales force briefing
Announce-ment
Analysts visit
Demand profile
Indicative price range
Price range
Roadshow
Book-building
Pricing scenarios
Price range
Roadshow
Book-building
Pricing scenarios
Demand review
Pricing decision
Allocation
Demand review
Pricing decision
Allocation
Stabilization
Greenshoe
On-going research
Trading support
Market making
Corporate relations
Stabilization
Greenshoe
On-going research
Trading support
Market making
Corporate relations
PreparationPreparation Analyst education Analyst
educationInvestor
education Investor
educationRoadshow/
bookbuilding Roadshow/
bookbuildingPricing/
allocation Pricing/
allocation AftermarketAftermarket
T- x weeksT- x weeks T-7 weeksT-7 weeks T-4 weeksT-4 weeks T-2 weeksT-2 weeks TT T+4 weeksT+4 weeks
Key stepsKey steps
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Objectives of investor education
Execution
Investor education is led by equity research analysts
The investor education process, the first contact of company with the market, will be undertaken by our research analysts and specialist sales and enable both the management and underwriters to gather preliminary market feedback on the offering
AftermarketPricing/allocationRoadshow/bookbuildingInvestor education
Bank in charge of investor education
Bank will publish research report
Research report is only marketing instrument during investor education
1. Research report
Bank´s specialists will present company to institutional investors
Bank´s specialists act as interface between company and institutional investors
2. First contact with the market
3. Investor education itinerary
Bank´s specialists provide investor feedback to company's management after meetings
Complete feedback report presented to company and shareholders before offering
4. Price range
After investor education and before bookbuilding, company decide on price range
Preliminary prospectuses are distributed to investors and book of demand is open
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Objectives of the
roadshow
Execution
Effective roadshow organization is key to investor targeting and ability to maximize demand
Roadshow is the official marketing phase – management meets institutional investors and performance of management team will be a critical factor for success of IPO
Bank´s specialists continue to host investor education meetings during roadshow period
Organise a number of 1-on-1 meetings and group presentations (assuming two weeks)
Bank’s roadshow and IR departments will be responsible for organisation of roadshow
Bank’s salesforce ensures that interest by inst. investors is translated into orders for the shares
Company and its shareholders will have full visibility and access to the book of demand
One roadshow team:
CEO + CFO + the company senior or operational manager(s)
Investor education AftermarketPricing/allocationRoadshow/bookbuilding
Bank’s role during the roadshow The company’s roadshow
- Boston
- New York- Middle East: 2-3 days
- London: 2-3 days
- Edinburgh
- Paris
- Frankfurt
- Stockholm
- Netherlands
- Switzerland
2 days
5-6 days
- o
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D E U T S C H E S E I G E N K A P I T A L F O R U M
Example—evolution of an order book during an IPO
98 121 140 143
336459
1.135
1.769
3 3
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Institutional tranche = 235.2m shares incl. greenshoe
Day:
Coverage: 0.0x 0.0x 0.4x 0.5x 0.6x 0.6x 1.4x 2.0x 4.8x 7.5x
Bank communicates to the market that books
are covered
Demand (m shares)Demand (m shares)
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(25)%
(20)%
(15)%
(10)%
(5)%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Preliminary valuationrange by Bookrunners
Valuation range bySyndicate research
Bookbuilding pricerange
Pricing
“Price discovery” is key to achieving a sustainable valuation
Roadshow/bookbuilding AftermarketPricing/allocationInvestor education
Valuation/ price range
Time T T + 3 weeks T + 5 weeks T + 7 weeks
Investor education
Roadshow &
bookbuilding
10-20%
Marketing momentumAnalyst presentation
Syndicate Valuation Analyst Valuation Price Range Pricing
Pricing
Bank would manage a “price discovery” process in order to achieve the most favourable results Bank would manage a “price discovery” process in order to achieve the most favourable results
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D E U T S C H E S E I G E N K A P I T A L F O R U M
In order to enhance shareholder visibility on valuation, company could use “pilot fishing”
Description
Preliminary meetings organised by the Bookrunners with selected lead investors to gather feedback on company equity story and valuation
Meetings organised early in the IPO process (before or around analyst presentation subject to company’s preparedness)
Meetings organised in a discrete manner, no market publicity
Target key accounts with superior understanding of the sector and company comparables
Process used in recent IPOs
Objectives
Test company positioning with investors and their potential interest/appetite for the story
Test valuation methodologies/trading multiples that will be used by investors to value company
Provide additional insight to company and its shareholders on feasibility of IPO
Risks
Partial investor feedback only, likely to evolve throughout the process
“Pilot fishing”“Pilot fishing”
Roadshow/bookbuilding AftermarketPricing/allocationInvestor education
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Objectives of pricing
and allocations
Execution
IPO performance in the aftermarket also depends on effective allocation process by the Bookrunners
Communicate a positive message to market to price in the upper half of range
Encourage orders and attempt to limit selling pressure on the company’s shares
Foster stock liquidity
Quality/sophisticated investors
Outstanding knowledge of the company, the country and the sector
Buyers in the secondary market
Likely to become l-t shareholder
Favour high quality institutional investors
Limit the allocation of shares to Tier 2 and Tier 3 accounts
Avoid allocating shares to Tier 4 accounts, apart from key investors
Tier I
Tier II
Tier III
Tier IV
Allocation strategySuggested allocation criteria
Quality investors
Limited holdings in the sector
“Followers” rather than “leaders”
Uncertain holding period
Smaller inst. funds or local brokers
70% of demand
20% of demand
8% of demand
2% of demand
Roadshow/bookbuilding AftermarketPricing/allocationInvestor education
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IPO performance in the aftermarket also depends on effective allocation process by the Bookrunners
Example of order book and price sensitivity
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
4.75
4.80
4.85
4.90
4.95
5.00
5.05
5.10
5.15
5.20
5.25
5.30
5.35
5.40
5.45
5.50
5.55
5.60
5.65
5.70
5.75
5.80
5.85
5.90
5.95
6.00
Shares (bn)
Inst. Tranche:
253.2m shrs
Tier 1 investor price sensitivity
Offer price: 5.40
Retail
54%
Long only
39%
7%
Hedge funds
Demand
Retail
46%
Long only
27%
27%
Hedge funds
Allocation
Roadshow/bookbuilding AftermarketPricing/allocationInvestor education
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IPO pricing considerations (1/3) : discount to fair value
Fair trading multiple is obtained and reflected in valuations
At execution, institutional investors seek to purchase shares at discount to projected trading value
Size of additional “IPO discount” required to attract investors into a transaction is subject to several factors and can vary significantly from deal to deal. Key variables are:
Gauging range of IPO discount is possible by calculating difference between offer price and valuation (through DCF or other)
Historically, the “IPO discount” has been in the 5-15% range to the benchmark fair, trading value
Impossible to accurately determine the IPO discount until pre-marketing and bookbuilding phases commence, i.e. when the valuation is tested with investors for the first time
7%
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IPO pricing considerations (2/3) – determining the range
Investors will require an “IPO discount” to the fully distributed valuation range:
Width of IPO pricing range is usually around 15%
Guidelines on setting IPO pricing range:
Set the bottom of the range in order to
— Engage the bulk of investors in the process
— Act as a catalyst for deal momentum to move investors up the price range
— Accommodate the possibility of market volatility during the roadshow period
Set the top of the range in order to
— Reflect estimated maximum pricing level
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IPO pricing considerations (3/3) – determining pricing
7%
Low Just rightHigh
Could signal ‘weak’ deal
If offering ‘pops’ money left of the table
If pop is 40-100%, investors may flip
Investor enthusiasm/ support is strained
No tolerance for execution mistakes
Narrows investor pool
Investors believe they have helped price the deal
Investors understand milestones and metrics and support multiple expansion
70% of top 10 allocated accounts hold stock for 30+ days and increase positions
Allows for multiple expansion
Communicates ‘hot’deal
Investors have ‘bought-in’ to value
Risk
sPo
siti
ves
Final Pricing
Create solid, experienced investor base with l-t commitment to companyEnsure steady and reasonable aftermarket share price progression to maintain investor confidence and satisfaction
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Objectives of aftermarket
phase
Execution
The Bookrunners’ equity trading and distribution platform would support company stock price performance in the aftermarket
Stabilisation and exercise of the greenshoe option
Provide excellent visibility to investors through continuous news flow
Establish a liquid and buoyant secondary market for the shares
Pricing/allocationRoadshow/bookbuilding AftermarketInvestor education
Management of aftermarket phase
Continuous and coherent communication will be necessary to ensure company visibility and strong performance in the aftermarket
Bookrunners to initiate research coverage following end of blackout period
Maintain active dialogue with investors when investor interest weakens or focuses on certain aspects of the story
Continue to channel investor feedback and questions to the company’s management
Market maker
End of the black-outperiod
Initiation of researchcoverage
Stabilisation period
Listing Bookrunners become traders
IR/PR communication
Publication of research notes
End of research black-out period
40 calendar days after pricing
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Market demand/timingTake advantage of broad market and sector trends
Capital needsReturn to equity markets to support expansions in business plan
Provide currency for significant M&A or CAPEX activityOwnership structure
Broaden investor base
Allow key investors to increase ownership stake
LiquidityExit strategy for insiders and/or VC investors
Increase market float, reduce volatility
MarketingBroaden research coverage
Opportunity to further educate investors on company’s story
After an IPO, publicly traded companies often sell additional equity
Why complete a follow-on offering?Why complete a follow-on offering?
Equity Offerings
Initial public offering
Accelerated bookbuildings
and block trades
Fully marketed offering,
Capital increase
Equity-linked or convertible offerings
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Fully marketed
Bank places shares with targeted investors through extended marketing and bookbuilding process
Offering period: 2 weeksPreparation time: 6—8 weeks
Narrower discountOpportunity to market equity story through management roadshowAllows for maximum size vis-à-vis AGT and block trade
Not fully underwritten as in case of block tradeIncreased market risk vis-à-vis block trade and AGTRequires management supportLonger preparation time
Comparison of alternativesD
escr
ipti
onEx
ecut
ion
tim
ing
Adv
anta
ges
Cons
ider
atio
nsAccelerated bookbuild
Bank places shares with targeted investors via accelerated bookbuilding process
Fast track execution:1—3 days (sometimes within hours)
Potentially narrower discount vis-à-vis block tradeNo need to file prospectusAllows for larger size vis-à-vis block trade
Not fully underwritten as in case of block tradeSize is an issueIncreased market risk vis-à-vis block tradeWider discount relative to fully marketed offering
Block trade
Bank purchases shares from the Company at pre-determined price and then places shares with investors in secondary market
Rapid execution: typically short time frame of 24 hours
Certainty of disposalNo need to file prospectusNo involvement of the Company’smanagement requiredLittle or no market risk during execution
Wider discount relative to accelerated offeringSize and feasibility of transaction greatly influenced by liquidity of the stock and market conditions
Agency sale
Bank sells shares on behalf of the Company on open market at specific price limit or at the market
Depends on the liquidity of stock; Target 20% of ADTV
No regulatory or disclosure issuesIncreased likelihood of disposal of entire stake at average market priceFlexibilityCould be combined with block trade to achieve complete sale (o. vice-versa)
The Company faces market risk during the sale periodTiming of complete sale uncertainPotentially negative signal to market resulting in downward pressure on share price
Rights issue
Bank places shares with existing investors
Offering period: 2 weeksPreparation time: 6-8 weeks
Guarantee of proceeds — underwritten offerPotential to raise bigger % of companyPreferential treatment to existing shareholdersOpportunity to market equity story
Typically, is the most deeply discounted offeringLong preparation timeLimited ability to tap new investor base
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Typical usage of IPO funds
Expansion of business activity
Strengthening of equity basis
Expansion of R&D department
MeVis (Technology)MeVis (Technology)
€ 37.4m 16 Nov 2007€ 37.4m 16 Nov 2007
GK Software (Software)GK Software (Software)
€ 8.7m 19 Jun 2008€ 8.7m 19 Jun 2008
Expansion of core market Germany
International expansion
Expansion of product portfolio and safeguarding of technology leadership
Primary € 8.7mSecondary -Primary € 8.7mSecondary -
SMA Solar (Renewables)SMA Solar (Renewables)
€ 361.9m 27 Jun 2008€ 361.9m 27 Jun 2008
Strengthening of equity basis
Internationalisation
Expansion of development capacities
Primary € 126.9mSecondary € 235.0mPrimary € 126.9mSecondary € 235.0m
Primary € 28.6mSecondary € 8.8mPrimary € 28.6mSecondary € 8.8m
Source: Company offering prospect, Deutsche Börse
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Typical usage of IPO funds (cont´d)
Strategic investments in other companies
Strengthening of equity basis
Expansion of R&D department
Maintenance
Modernisation
Expansion of infrastructure of port
Hamburger Hafen (Logistics)Hamburger Hafen (Logistics)
€ 1,166m 02 Nov 2007€ 1,166m 02 Nov 2007
Centrotherm (Renewables)Centrotherm (Renewables)
€ 185.1m 12 Oct 2007€ 185.1m 12 Oct 2007
Franconowest (Real Estate)Franconowest (Real Estate)
€ 9.0m 13 Nov 2007€ 9.0m 13 Nov 2007
Expansion of business operations
Strengthening of equity basis
Increased financial flexibility
Primary € 9.0mSecondary -Primary € 9.0mSecondary -
Primary € 123.2mSecondary € 1,042.8mPrimary € 123.2mSecondary € 1,042.8m
Primary € 138.0mSecondary € 47.1mPrimary € 138.0mSecondary € 47.1m
Source: Company offering prospect, Deutsche Börse
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Agenda
Page
D E U T S C H E S E I G E N K A P I T A L F O R U M
Overview of ECM markets and IPO environment
IPO structure and process
Financing alternatives in a different environment
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EG
IC
FI
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NC
IN
GO
PT
IO
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D E U T S C H E S E I G E N K A P I T A L F O R U M
Date Event 2007 March HSBC unwinds its subprime lending business
July 2 Bear Stearns hedge funds lose $1.6bn on subprime CDOs
Oct/Nov Merrill Lynch and Citi CEOs fired
2008 January Countrywide acquired by Bank of America
March Bear Stearns acquired by JPMorgan Chase
April Sachsen LB merges with LBBW
August KfW sells IKB to LoneStar September Treasury takes control of Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac
Lehman Brothers files for Chapter 11
Merrill Lynch & Bank of America agree to merge
$85Bn bailout of AIG by the Federal government
SEC issues emergency order temporarily banning short selling in the shares of c. 800 financial institutions
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs convert to bank holding companies
Warren Buffett investments in Goldman Sachs and GE
JPMorgan Chase acquires WaMu after FDIC seizure
October Wells Fargo acquires Wachovia
House passes $700bn TARP plan on second try
Kaupthing Bank files for bankruptcy and is taken over by the government
November West LB, Commerzbank and HSH Nordbank claim German bail-out fund
Chronology of the financial crisis
Timeline of eventsTimeline of events
Source: Factset, press
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Equity markets are likely to remain volatile, but medium term risk reward is supportive as a deep recession is likely priced in
Source: Bloomberg
CommentsComments
Rapid deterioration in economic data and continued stress in funding markets threaten to transform a mild global recession to a deep one
Equity funds continued to see large outflows across all regions except in Western Europe
Earnings estimates are likely to be revised downwards
On the positive side, the medium term inflation trends are improving
The long term risk-reward outlook for stocks is supportive
Significant steps have been taken to support and restore confidence in banks
Key market indicators (2007 — 2008 YTD)Key market indicators (2007 — 2008 YTD)
DJ Stoxx 600 P/E
EUR/USD
Crude oil ($/bbl)
7
11
15
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08
50
100
150
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08
Key benchmark indicesKey benchmark indices
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Oct-98 Dec-99 Jan-01 Feb-02 Apr-03 May-04 Jun-05 Aug-06 Sep-07 Oct-08
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Markets are seeing a sustained period of equity volatility…
Source: Bloomberg
10-year performance of selected indices and volatility 10-year performance of selected indices and volatility
Equity index 1 month 3 months 2008 YTD LTM 5 years 10 years
FTSE 100 (20.4%) (25.0%) (36.3%) (37.2%) (3.6%) (21.6%) S&P 500 (23.6%) (29.2%) (37.2%) (40.2%) (12.2%) (15.2%) DAX (25.5%) (30.9%) (44.0%) (42.4%) 29.2% 1.5%
Equity indices rebased to 100 VDAX volatility index
Russian and Asian crises
9/11 attack
US accounting scandals
Spring 2006 correction
(growth fears)
Current crisis
Dot-com bubble burst
Source: Bloomberg
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Real GDP forecastsReal GDP forecasts Weaker growthWeaker growth CommentsComments
The global economy is sliding into recession, the first simultaneous recession since the 1970s. Developed economies are likely to contract for three consecutive quarters, and by more than in 2001
Emerging markets growth is set to slow sharply, but modestly better than in 2001
Expect central banks to aggressively lower interest rates
…anticipating the global economy heading for its most challenging period in decades
% q/q 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09
Germany (0.8) (1.8) (1.0) 0.5 1.0
Euro area (1.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.5 1.0
U.S. (0.5) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.5
UK (2.0) (3.0) (2.5) (1.5) 0.0
Japan (0.7) (1.0) (0.5) 0.0 0.8
Source: J.P. Morgan Economic Research
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(18.4)%
(27.4)%
(34.1)%
(35.3)%
(39.0)%
(50.9)%
(51.3)%
(54.3)%
(54.6)%
(57.3)%
MSCI World: (47.5%)
European equity markets update
Global equity markets update and outlook for 4Q 2008 Global equity markets update and outlook for 4Q 2008
Source: Bloomberg
MSCI world sector performance LTMMSCI world sector performance LTM
Consumer staple
Healthcare
Consumer discretionary
Utilities
Energy
IT
Materials
Industrial
Telecom
Financials
The credit spreads are at 2-3x recession peak levels, and equities have fallen by half the average recession penalty
A significant and prolonged equity market rebound is not likely in the short term
In the secondary market, investors are currently favouring stock with the following characteristics
Current consensus seems to be for economic rebound around summer 2009 (in the US)
A rebound in equity markets could take place a couple of months before (end Q2 2009) but this is subject to a prior resolution of the financial crisis and macroeconomic developments
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D E U T S C H E S E I G E N K A P I T A L F O R U M
0
10
20
30
40
50 IPOs Follow on Convertibles
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
The profile of equity issuance has changed dramatically, reflecting the current crisis
CommentsComments
The equity issuance market has experienced considerable disruptions (e.g. only two Equity-linked transactions were placed in EMEA since beginning of August)
2008YTD ECM volume has been driven by large rights issues, particularly by financial institutions in order to strengthen the capital base
Considerable investor liquidity shifted to defensive asset classes and heavy redemptions is underway
IPO market not likely to re-open before the end of H1 and for solid equity stories only
EMEA ECM issuance split by deal typeEMEA ECM issuance split by deal type
Issuance, €bn
’07 ‘08Jun
Stoxx 600
’07 ‘08Jul
’07 ‘08Aug
’07 ‘08Oct
’07 ‘08Sep
Source: Dealogic
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The profile of equity issuance has changed dramatically, reflecting the current crisis
2003-2007 2008YTD
ABB: 33%
IPO: 27%
Rights: 21%
Convert: 13%
Fully marketed: 6%
IPO: 13%
Rights: 56%
Fully marketed: 3%
Telecom: 7%Consumer Goods: 4%
Other: 22%FIG: 31%
Telecom: 10%
Utility: 7%Real Estate: 7%Oil & Gas: 5%
Other 40%
FIG: 59%
EMEA ECM issuance H2 20081 EMEA ECM issuance H2 20081
Date Issuer Country Industry Type Size (€mm) Purpose 07-Oct-08 Sampo Oyj Finland Finance ABB 1,314 Secondary shares2 25-Sep-08 Natixis France Finance Rights 3,727 Strengthen cap. 22-Sep-08 Mobile Telecom Kuwait Telecom Rights 3,133 General 22-Sep-08 Deutsche Bank Germany Finance ABB 2,200 Growth 19-Sep-08 Lloyds TSB UK Finance ABB 972 Growth 18-Sep-08 Barclays UK Finance ABB 884 Growth 08-Sep-08 Commerzbank Germany Finance ABB 1,112 Growth 22-Aug-08 IKB Germany Finance Rights 679 Strengthen cap. 24-Jul-08 Abu D. N. Energy UAE Utility Conv 717 General 21-Jul-08 HBOS UK Finance Rights 5,202 Strengthen cap. 18-Jul-08 Barclays UK Finance FM 5,011 Strengthen cap. 14-Jul-08 Ma'aden Saudi A. Mining IPO 1,547 Secondary shares2 07-Jul-08 AngloGold S. Africa Mining Rights 1,108 General 01-Jul-08 Credit Agricole France Finance Rights 5,900 Strengthen cap.
Utility: 4%
Food & Bev.: 4%
By deal typeBy deal type By sectorBy sector
2003-2007 2008YTD
Convert: 10%
ABB/other: 18%
1 Deals > €650mm 2 No proceeds for the issuerSource: Dealogic as of October 29, 2008
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
German equity issuance since 2003 in € bnGerman equity issuance since 2003 in € bn
Overview of German equity capital markets
90%
10% 14%
86%
20.9
29.8 IPO Other1
1 Inclucdes everything except IPOsSource: Dealogic
Development of German indices since July 2007Development of German indices since July 2007
30
50
70
90
110
Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08
% DAX 30 (34.7%) TecDAX (38.2%)
Source: Bloomberg
26.5
69%
31%
100%
29.7
MDAX (45.2%) SDAX (54.7%)
21.7
66%
34%
16.7
93%
7%
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0.0 0.00.8
0.3 0.60.0
1.61.52.0
4.9
3.3
1.0
2.8
1.20.4
1.5
0.1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Quarterly German IPO Volumina, 2004 - 2008Quarterly German IPO Volumina, 2004 - 2008
€4.2m €8.3m
German IPOs by sector & size since 2007German IPOs by sector & size since 2007German equity issuanceGerman equity issuance
Source: Dealogic 1 Other includes: Computer, Construction, Healthcare, Services, Finance, Food, Metal, Energy
2008: €16.7m
Convertibles€7.4m Capital
increase€8.3m
IPO €1.1m
Recent development of German equity capital markets
€7.4m
2007
€0.1m
Machinery8.5%
RealEstate 7.5%
TMT9.2%
Auto- motive28.6%
> €1,000m3.9%
< €250m84.3%
€500–1,000m3.9%
€250-500m7.8%
Consumer- products11.3%
2004 2005 2006
€2.0m
2008
Trans- portation
18.6%
Other1
16.3%
SectorSector SizeSize2008 (Q1-Q3)2008 (Q1-Q3)
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D E U T S C H E S E I G E N K A P I T A L F O R U M
Date Company Volume Original price span Development since IPO
08-Mar-07 Kromi Logistic 26.1 23.00 27.00
21-Mar-07 POLIS Immobilien 78.6 13.75 16.75
27-Mar-07 VITA 34 International 9.0 14.50 17.50
02-Apr-07 ESTAVIS 80.0 28.00 35.00
03-Apr-07 alstria office REIT 406.4 16.00 17.50
11-Apr-07 SMT Scharf 15.2 9.50 11.50
27-Apr-07 Versatel 720.7 29.00 36.00
15-May-07 Wacker Construction 352.0 18.00 22.00
24-May-07 DF Deutsche Forfait 13.5 7.00 7.50
11-Jun-07 Gerresheimer 880.0 37.00 45.00
18-Jun-07 InVision Software 30.0 32.00 38.00
28-Jun-07 VTG Aktiengesellschaft 174.0 16.00 20.00
02-Jul-07 Tognum 1,800.0 22.00 26.00
06-Jul-07 ZhongDe Waste 94.6 23.00 26.00
12-Jul-07 EnviTec Biogas 210.9 42.00 52.00
13-Jul-07 Homag Group 185.9 29.00 35.00
12-Oct-07 centrotherm photovoltaics 161.2 26.50 34.50
02-Nov-07 HHLA 1,017.6 43.00 53.00
13-Nov-07 FranconoWest 9.0 1.80 2.20
16-Nov-07 Asian Bamboo 82.6 13.50 17.00
16-Nov-07 MeVis Medical Solutions 37.4 55.00 65.00
19-Jun-08 GK Software AG 8.7 21.00 23.00
27-Jun-08 SMA Solar Technology AG 361.9 40.00 52.00
Overview of German IPOs in Prime Standard since March 2007
Source: Deutsche Börse, Bloomberg Price span decreases or price at end of bookbuilding span
(69.9)%(90.9)%
(67.9)%(29.0)%
(65.4)%(76.6)%
(22.7)%(34.0)%
(71.9)%(40.9)%
(54.3)%(62.4)%
(69.3)%(68.0)%
(17.1)%(41.0)%(35.0)%
(38.0)%(4.3)%
(57.3)%(53.6)%
(34.8)%(71.6)%
28.00
9.5029.00
22.007.50
40.00
32.00
18.00
24.00
15.00
20.00
47.0031.00
34.50
53.00
1.80
17.00
55.00
14.50
16.00
26.00
21.00
47.00
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D E U T S C H E S E I G E N K A P I T A L F O R U M
There is always light at the end of the tunnel...
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