IOOS Ocean Modeling and Analysis Strategic

Implementation Plan

MAST: Modeling and Analysis Steering Team

Chair for Ocean.USCHRIS MOOERS

OPEL/RSMAS/UNIVERSITY of MIAMI

OUTLINE

• INTRODUCTION TO IOOS & MAST

• MAST MACHINATIONS

• COMMON INTERESTS W/GLOBAL CLIMATE DYNAMICS OBSERVING AND MODELING COMMUNITY

IOOS: INTEGRATED (AND SUSTAINED) OCEAN OBSERVING

SYSTEM COMPONENTS• IN SITU AND REMOTE SENSING OBSERVING

SUBSYSTEM (????)

• DATA MANAGEMENT AND COMMUNICATOIN SUBSYSTEM (DMAC)

• MODELING AND ANALYSIS SUBSYSTEM (MAST)

• GLOBAL (GOOS) AND COASTAL OCEAN (COOS(EEZ)) DOMAINS

• COOS STRUCTURE: NATIONAL BACKBONE AND 11 REGIONAL ASSOCIATIONS & RCOOSs; HAZARD: FLYING W/O CONOPS

MAST Charge (21 NOV 06)GOAL: The Modeling and Analysis Steering Team was established by Ocean.US to prepare and coordinate implementation of a strategic plan for building on, enhancing and expanding existing regional and national operational modeling capabilities to improve the Nation’s capacity to address the seven societal benefits of the Integrated Ocean Observing System.[1] This planning is to be achieved by collaborating with IOOS Regional Associations, Federal Agencies, the Ocean.US Data Management and Communications (DMAC) Steering Team, operational and research modeling groups, and other bodies as appropriate to accomplish the following Objectives.

Objectives(1) Enhance collaboration between operational and research modeling groups at both the

national and regional levels;(2) Establish and maintain an inventory of operational and research modeling capabilities relevant to

achieving the seven societal benefits;(3) Assess and recommend improvements in the adequacy (performance & skill) of existing

and emerging research and operational capabilities in terms of user needs, including generalized “error bars” and other indicators of uncertainty;

(4) Develop community consensus for a research agenda that will help achieve the required operational capabilities;

(5) Improve and expand existing operational modeling capabilities for all seven societal goals by accelerating and facilitating effective processes for transitioning models and model improvements from R&D to operational use;

(6) Assess and recommend improvements to observing and DMAC subsystem networks through the use of testbeds for model skill assessment, plus Observing System Experiments (OSEs) and Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) for existing and planned, respectively, observing system efficacy assessments;

(7) Explore the use and efficacy of Community Modeling Networks (CMNs) as a mechanism for achieving these objectives;

(8) Develop a five-year, prioritized action plan and budget for MAST; and (9) Work with the National Ocean Partnership Program (NOPP), Federal Agencies, and other

groups as appropriate to attract the needed funding.

MAST Membership• Frank Aikman, Vice Chair, NOAA-NOS-CSDL, Estuarine and Coastal Ocean Circulation • Alan Blumberg, SIT, Estuarine and Coastal Ocean Circulation • C.J. Beegle-Krause, Vice Chair, NOAA-NOS-HAZMAT, Water Quality • Frank Bub, Navy-NAVO, Coastal and Global Ocean Circulation • Dale Crockett, TX Water Dev. Bd.-RA, Coastal Ocean Circulation • Bruce Ebersole, USACOE, Waves • Eileen Hofmann, ODU-PARADIGM, Ecosystem Dynamics • Anne Hollowed, NOAA-NMFS-AFSC-RA, Fisheries • Eoin Howlett, ASA, Coastal Ocean Circulation/Waves • Gregg Jacobs, NRL, Ocean Data Assimilation • Harry Jenter, USGS, Watershed Hydrology • Richard Luettich, UNC-RA, Coastal Inundation/Waves • Chris Mooers, Chair, RSMAS-RA, Coastal Ocean Circulation • Steve Payne, Navy-CNMOC, Marine Meteorology • Michele Rienecker, NASA-GSFC, Global Ocean-Climate• Jorge Sarmiento, PU, Global Biogeochemistry • Charles Spooner, EPA, Hydrological Monitoring Networks • Fred Toepfer, NOAA-NWS-NCEP, Marine Meteorology • John Wilkin, Rutgers-RA, Coastal Ocean Circulation and Ecosystem Dynamics • Ex-Officio, Tom Malone, Ocean.US

GENERIC APPLICATIONS• MARINE OPERATIONS AND EMERGENCY

MANAGEMENT (SPILLS, SAR, SAFE NAVIGATION, STORM SURGE, ETC.)

• MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL MANAGEMENT (WATER QUALITY, HYPOXIA, HABs, MARINE PROTECTED AREAS, ETC.)

• OCEAN STATE ESTIMATION (CLIMATE AND GLOBAL CHANGE DETECTION, BASIC UNDERSTANDING OF OCEAN SYSTEM DYNAMICS, INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS, ETC.)

---------------------------------------------------------------------• %%% “USER-DRIVEN”, BUT WHO ARE THE

“FORECASTERS”? WHERE DO THEY SIT?

ROLES OF R&D IN IOOS

• DESIGN, DEVELOPMENT, AND TESTING OF SENSOR, MODEL, DATA ASSIMILATION SCHEMES, ETC.

• DESIGN AND EVALUATION OF OBSERVING SUBSYSTEM NETWORKS

• ASSESSMENT OF OPERATIONAL OCEAN PREDICTION SYSTEMS

• CONDUCT OF OCEAN PREDICTION EXPERIMENTS

• UTILIZATION OF OCEAN PREDICTION PRODUCTS FOR DIAGNOSTIC STUDIES OF OCEAN PROCESSES

7 - 41010

6 - 41012

5 - 41009

4 - FWYF1

1 - SANF1

2 - LONF1

3 - MLRF1

FB

TP

VKNP

KW

Observation Locations

GRID POINT DISTRIBUTION

SECTION 1

6 543

2

EOF of ALONGSHORE TRANSPORT – BAROTROPIC – MODE 1EIGENVECTOR TIME FUNCTION

EOF of ALONGSHORE TRANSPORT – BAROCLINIC – MODE 1EIGENVECTOR TIME FUNCTION

“MAST’S PASSIONS”• ESTABLISH TESTBEDS FOR RAISING THE

PROFESSIONAL LEVEL OF SKILL ASSESSMENT FOR MODEL TRANSITIONS FROM R&D TO OPERATIONS; TO BE CONDUCTED ON A COMMUNTY-WIDE BASIS

• ESTABLISH TESTBEDS FOR OSEs AND OSSEs TO AID IN THE NETWORK DESIGN OF IOOS; ALSO TO BE CONDUCTED ON A COMMUNITY-WIDE BASIS

• ESTABLISH A PROGRAM OF JOINT OCEAN PREDICTION EXPERIMENTS THAT ENGAGE OPERATIONAL CENTERS AS WELL AS RESEARCHERS

SEVERAL COMMON INTERESTS WITH THE GLOBAL CLIMATE OBSERVING

AND MODELING COMMUNITY• DOWNSCALING FROM GLOBAL/BASIN-SCALE MODELS TO THE

COASTAL OCEAN MODELS

• EASTERN AND WESTERN BOUNDARY CURRENT DYNAMICS AND VARIABILITY

• OBSERVING SYSTEM DESIGNS AND OSEs & OSSEs

• MODEL TESTBED ACTIVITIES

• COORDINATED JOINT PREDICTION EXPERIMENTS

• AIR-SEA INTERACTION AND ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN COUPLING

• SUPPORTIVE INTERACTIONS WITH NAVO & FNMOC AND WITH OPC/NCEP