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INVESTOR UPDATE MAY 2015
Overview
Performance Q1/15
2015 Outlook
Contents
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
1
Natural Gas Balance: Jan – Mar 2015
Gulf of Thailand (72%)
Power (59%)
Industry (14%)
NGV (7%)
Petrochemical Feedstock
(13%)
Industry Household
Transportation (7%)
Ethane/ Propane/ LPG/NGL
LPG/NGL
Remark: MMSCFD = Million Cubic Feet @ Heating Value 1,000 Btu/ft3
3,477 MMSCFD
Main driver of the Thai economy
Supply Production Sales
2
LNG21%
Myanmar79%
Chevron 28%
PTTEP 30%
Others 42%
Bypass Gas 878
MMSCFD
985 MMSCFD (20%)
Methane 1,614 MMSCFD
Onshore (3%)
142 MMSCFD
6 GSPs Total Capacity
2,740 MMSCFD @ Actual Heat
Import (25%)
1,227 MMSCFD
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
Indigenous (21%)
Imported Refined Petroleum Products 65 KBD
917 KBD (**)
Source: PTIT
Remark : (*)Refined product from refineries = 937 KBD, including domestic supply of LPG from GSPs and Petrochemical Plants = 109 KBD
(**) Not included Inventory
KBD = Thousand Barrels per day
Import (79%)
Crude/ Condensate 851 KBD
Refined Products 1046 KBD*
Domestic
Crude/ Condensate 224 KBD
Supply Production Sales
Export
214 KBD
Oil Balance Thailand: Jan – Mar 2015
224 KBD
Adequate refining capacity maintains the stability of supply
Total Refining Capacity in Thailand: 1,082 KBD
PTT’s Associated Refineries : 905 KBD
(TOP, PTTGC, SPRC, IRPC, BCP)
Other Refineries : 177 KBD (ESSO)
Refined Products 204 KBD
3
Crude Export 10 KBD
916 KBD
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
81%
71% 19%
29%
2001 2014
Revenue
Net Income
Affiliate
PTT
702
1,716
IPO
1 As of 31 March 2015 : THB/US$ exchange rate of 32.79 2 As of December 2014
Largest company on Thai Stock exchange
Market cap ~US$57bn1 or ~ THB1.9 trillion1
Group companies:13.2%1 of Thai Stock Exchange market
capitalization
Majority owned by Thai government (66%)
51% by Ministry of Finance
15% by Vayupak Fund
Fully integrated and highly diversified over the entire O&G
value chain
International exploration and production business with 777
mmboe of proved reserves in 2014
Sole operator and owner of gas transmission pipelines and
GSPs in Thailand
Largest refinery group in Thailand with stakes in 5 of 6
refineries in the country
Largest petrochemical producer group in Thailand with
stakes in 6 of 8 major petrochemical plants
Leading oil marketing business with 1,396 retail stations
and 40%1 of market share by volume
International oil trading business having traded 74.2 bn
liters 2 in 2014
Coal business assets in Indonesia, Madagascar, and
Brunei
New Power Flagship (GPSC) to capture opportunity in
neighboring ASEAN countries
PTT is Thailand’s Largest Energy Company
PTT Public Limited Company (“PTT”) Robust revenue and Net Income growth since IPO (MMUSD)
12,553
87,223
International and local recognition
Thailand best borrower award
2014 Best CEO
Best CFO
Best Managed Company
Best Corporate Governance
Best Investor Relations
Best Corporate Social
Responsibility
Best Commitment to Strong
Dividend Policy
SET Awards
Top Corporate
Governance Report
Award 2010 & 2011
Best Corporate Social
Responsibility Awards
2011 & 2012
84st Fortune Global
500 in 2014 81st in 2013
95th in 2012
128th in 2011
Platts Top 250 Global Energy
Company
24th Overall Global
Performance in Asia of 2014
180th in 2014 144th in 2013
167th in 2012
171th in 2011
Dow Jones Sustainability
Index (DJSI)
DJSI Member 2013-2014
(Listed in 2011)
4
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
Ministry of Finance holds majority stake in PTT PTT ratings at Thai sovereign level
Thai Ministry of Finance
51%
Vayupak Fund1 15%
Public 34%
Kingdom of Thailand – FC
Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ A-
PTT – FC Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ A-
PTT – LC Baa1 BBB+ A- A
Largest market cap on the Thai Stock Exchange
Note: As March 2015
• Foreign 17%
• Thai 17%
PTT PTTEP PTTGC TOP IRPC BCP Total Others
Market cap (BNUSD)2 28.1 13.2 7.2 3.2 2.7 1.4 56.6 373.9
% of SET 6.5% 3.1% 1.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 13.2% 86.8%
Moody’s rating Baa1 Baa1 Baa2 Baa1 Ba1 N.A. - -
S&P rating BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BB+ N.A. - -
PTT’s Strategic Importance to Thailand
5
1 The Vayupak Fund is a registered investment management fund in Thailand in which the Government is a major unit holder. The Government has rights of first refusal with respect to
any of our shares to be sold by the fund. Although the fund’s shareholding may be considered to be beneficially owned by the Government under international standards, such shares
are not considered to be owned by the Government for the purposes of Thai law or our compliance with certain of our debt covenants 2 Based on data as of 31 March 2015/ THB/US$ exchange rate of 32.79
5
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
Our Major Businesses & Activities
E&P
Gas
PTTEP 65.29% Exploration and Production
Upst
ream
Oil Marketing
Int’l Trading
Dow
nst
ream
Petrochemical
& Refining
PTTGC 48.89% Petrochemical Flagship
TOP 49.10% Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical
IRPC 38.51% Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical
SPRC 36.00% Stand alone Complex Refinery
Infr
ast
ructu
re
Coal
GPSC 22.58% Power Flagship
• Oil Marketing 100% Retail service Stations and commercial Marketing
• Int’l Trading 100% Import/Export/Out-Out trading of petroleum and
petrochemical products
Inte
rmedia
te
PTT PLC
• Gas Pipeline 100% Sole owner/operator of the Transmission pipeline
• S&M 100% Supply & Marketing of Natural Gas
• GSP 100% Extracting Hydrocarbon contents in NG for Petrochemical’s feedstock
6
Business Areas Activities Company PTT’s holding (%)
6
PTT Energy Resources 100% Coal Business
Power
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
PTT Aspiration Strategic direction and target to achieve “Big-Long-Strong” aspiration
“Thai Premier Multinational Energy Company”
7
Strong
TOP Quartile ROIC
Listed in DJSI since 2011
Long
Ranked Fortune 84th
Big
Technologically Advanced and Green National Oil Company
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
Petrochem
Olefins business declined from Polymer price dropped, 24% Refinery’s margin increased 1% Aromatics improved: P2F margin raised 32%
1,063 2,271
13,711
6,638
8,422
5,616
3,816
3,319
1,526
4,740
Q1/2014 Q1/2015
1,779 699
10,517
14,297
756 2,145
1,751
Grossmargin
FX gain OtherIncome
OPEX * Share ofincome
Interestexpense
&Incometaxes
NCI
PTTEP
PTT
Others
Refinery
Petrochem
28,538
211%
13%
33% 52% 114%
Q1/15 Performance: PTT Group: Pressured performance
7
MMTHB
*including petroleum exploration expenses and royalties
Oil Vol. increased 1%
Performance decreased from stock losses
Trading Vol. increased 17% Margin decreased 54% from condensate discount
Higher performance of others mainly
from PTTLNG and PTTT
Margin
FX gain OPEX*
Share of income
Interest expense &
income taxes
Other Income
21%
22,584
NCI PTTEP
Others
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
Refinery
Avg. A/C GIM increased 13%
Aggregate intake increased 15%
Sales vol. increased 10%
Performance decreased mainly from lower sale revenue and higher DD&A from an additional completed project
Gas GSP and Industrial EBITDA margin decreased by 84% and 48%
NG Sale Volume increase 9% from GSPs and New IPPs
Contents
8
Overview
Performance Q1/15
2015 Outlook
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
380
(739)
264
Q1/14 2013
Q1/14
E&P : Weakened YoY from declined oil price, though strong gas price helped; Rebounded QoQ due to lack of impairments
Product Prices
Net Income (100%)
Sales Volume
Key Highlights
7.79* 8.06 8.03
100.84
74.88
50.12
64.92** 56.54
48.74
Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
Liquid ($/BBL)
Gas ($/MMBTU)
Weighted Avg. ($/BOE)
MMUSD
198 239 232
101 108 95
Q1/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
347
Liquid
Gas
KBOED
299
9
* Gas price, if excludes Vietnam 16-1 retroactive sale recording, is 7.97$ for Q1 14
** Average selling price, if excludes Vietnam 16-1 retroactive sale recording is 65.91$ for Q1 14
327
Q4/14
QoQ
• Sales volume decreased slightly from PTTEP Australasia and Contract 4 projects
• Avg. selling price decreased in line with world oil price • Net income increased mainly due to lack of impairment loss as
well as a decline in exploration expenses & income tax YoY
• Avg price significantly decreased from steep decline in oil price, though strong, resilient gas price helped
• Volume increased from Zawtika full production & Hess acquisition • Net income declined from lower product prices & higher DD&A
from newly completed projects
50% YoY
33% QoQ
3% YoY
0.4% QoQ
25% YoY
14% QoQ
9% YoY
6% QoQ
Q1/15
31% YoY
136% QoQ
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance Q1/15 Outlook
E&P Roadmap: Deliver near-term growth and reassess feasibility of medium-long term prospects
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
10
Further-down horizon : deliver near-term growth and reassess feasibility of medium-long term prospects
What to expect in 2015
1. “SAVE to be SAFE” Cost Optimization Initiative
• Leaner CAPEX and OPEX (~10% reduction in 2015)
2. M&A Opportunities • Robust liquidity & ample debt headroom 3. Focused exploration and appraisal
• Reduced exposure to high risk/cost wells • Concentration of SE Asia
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
Business Segment
Q1/14 Q4/14* Q1/15 QoQ YoY
14,311 9,680 9,262 (4%) (35%)
• S&M 4,753 3,290 2,476 (25%) (48%)
• TM 6,881 5,874 6,775 15% (2%)
• GSP 5,668 3,637 916 (75%) (84%)
• NGV (4,737) (4,865) (3,019) 38% 36%
• Others 1,746 1,744 2,114 21% 21%
12
PTT EBITDA Performance:
(Unit:MMTHB)
5,042 (236) 3,927 1,764% (22%)
1,940 (331) 740 324% (62%)
* Not restated ** MIS *** Included Gas/Oil/Trading affiliates 11
Gas-EBITDA
Oil-EBITDA
Trading**- EBITDA
Total*** 21,293 9,113 13,929 53% (35%)
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
4,704 4,685
4,497 4,469
4,450
4,768 4,731 4,802 4,832
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q41,259 1,070 1,129
610 1,034 1,011
710 695 720
910 1,034 985
642 653 670 319 316 317
Q1/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
Gas BU: Natural gas volume continues to grow
NG Sales Volume* NG Customer Breakdown
2013
2015
2014
MMSCFD
EGAT (23%)
IPP (21%)
SPP (15%)
GSP (20%)
Industry (14%) NGV (7%)
MMSCFD
4,802 4,450
AVG.
4,688
4,832
4,589
4,589
9% YoY
8.87 8.79 8.82
Q1/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
NGV Sales Volume
Unit : Approx. KTon/Day
Vol. MMCFD
319 316 317
0.3% QoQ QoQ
• NG volume increased mainly from power sector demand (EGAT+SPP).
• NGV demand was flat, following gradually price rise
YoY
• NG volume increase mainly due to higher GSP gas demand and new IPPs
• NGV demand declined slightly due to retail price adjustment amid lower oil price
QoQ
• Higher NGV Sales volume due to NGV Station back to normal operation after closed during political demonstratiionon
YOY
• Sales volume increased by 5%, also, feed cost increased
• No Government subsidy, while special discount given to public transportation customers
Key Highlights
SM: GSM, NGR, CHP margin +1.75% no cap for internal use, external cap according to price structure
4,832
1% QoQ
Convention เพ่ิม 2 สถานี Mother Daughter ที่เพ่ิมข้ึนเป็นของเอกชน
* NG Sales Volume include Inter-BA Transaction
Gas BU Performance:
Better performance from GSP#5 back to normal operation
K.Ton/Day
12
1% YoY
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
389 382 380
858
577
444
1,556
1,448 1,188
1,556
1,428 1,130
333
498*
333
Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
4,753 3,290 2,476
6,881 5,874 6,775
5,668
3,637 916
(4,737) (4,865) (3,019)
1,746
1,744 2,114
Gas - EBITDA
MMTHB
Others
TM
GSP
14,311
Q1/14 Q4/14*** Q1/15
9,680
S&M
NGV
638 714 674
181 179 187
476 597 552
209
244 204
3
Q1/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
1,734
GSP Sales Volume
LPG (42%)
kTon
1,504
1,620
7% QoQ
8% YoY
Gas BU : Lower GSP and industrial margins pressured Gas BU performance
13
QoQ
• GSP margin continued under pressure from lower petchem prices, notwithstanding loosened LPG price ex-GSP
• GSP sales volume declined from weaker industrial & auto demand, following naphtha/oil prices
• Gas BU’s EBITDA slipped slightly further, resulting from continued squeezed GSP and industrial margins, though NGV loss lowered following retail price adjustment
YoY
• Lower performance mainly from GSP and S&M, though NGV loss decline from increased retail prices
• GSP: lower selling price linked to sharp-fallen petchem prices, while gas feed cost maintained
• S&M: lower performance, esp. from industrial customers, due to lag time between selling price and cost
Propane (12%)
NGL (11%)
Ethane (34%)
Key Highlights
35% YoY
***Not restated
GSP - Reference Product Prices
PP
HDPE
Naphtha
USD/Ton
Feed Cost**
LPG Ex-GSP
* Effective on February 2, 2015 ** Revised Feed cost due to re-calculated with GSP production volume instead of sale volume
Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014 20142
S&M 7,092 3,290 18,436 20,456 20,456
TM 6,681 5,874 24,984 26,071 26,071
GSP 5,190 3,637 13,663 20,030 20,030
NGV (5,082) (4,865) (18,981) (19,962) (19,962)
Others 1,959 1,744 6,734 7,507 7,507
Total 15,840 9,680 44,836 54,102 54,102
15,840 9,680 44,836 54,102 54,102
12% -39% - 21%
9,262
Pentane (1%)
4% QoQ
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
GSP
Capacity (MTA)
6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7
PTTEP (M9)
6.7
Gas Business Roadmap
15
LNG Ph#2
Pipeline
Capacity (MMSCFD)
7,180 7,480 4,580
LNG Capacity
(MTA)
5 5 10 13
• BVW#7 compressor unit4
• 4th onshore
• Nakhon Sawan
• Offshore compressor
• 4th onshore
Midline compressor
• Nakhon Ratchasima
7,480
5
7,180
13
FSRU (West)
7,480
6.7
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
GSP
Capacity (MTA)
6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7
LNG Terminal Phase 2
6.7
15
LNG Ph#2
Pipeline Capacity
(MMSCFD) 7,180 7,480 4,580
LNG Capacity
(MTA)
5 5 10 13
• BVW#7 compressor unit4
• 4th onshore
• Nakhon Sawan
• Offshore compressor
• 4th onshore
Midline compressor
• Nakhon Ratchasima
7,480
5
7,180
13
FSRU (West)
7,480
6.7
• Waiting for a resolution form NEPC on 14 May, 2015
(ท ัง้นี ้สธฐ. จะแจง้ Update ขอ้มลูทีส่ามารถน าเสนอ Analyst meeting ในวนัที ่15 พ.ค.58 ตอ่ไป)
• ERC has amended TPA regime and declared 2nd TPA regime in Royal Thai Government Gazette since 8 May, 2015
• ERC also required PTT to amend TPA code regarding the onshore gas pipeline system within 60 days therefore the deadline is 6 July, 2015
Foundation work on jetty and construction of tank roof structure
Construction completed 35.96%
5th Onshore Gas Pipeline
Under revision to be more suitable for the country’s needs and energy security
Expected to be submitted to NEPC within 2015
TPA codes for onshore NG pipeline and LNG terminals effective as from 30th March 2015
TPA Code
14
Key Progress Demand & Supply
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15
Industry Auto Household
0
20
40
60
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15
Sales vol. Export Price (RHS)
Mar-15
Import
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
Thailand’s Energy Demand/Supply: Reform Bears Fruit
NGV Higher price , steady volume
M.Ton
THB/Kg
Diesel Demand remain resilience
Gasoline Higher demand following lower price
M.Litre THB/Litre
16
Import
8.9 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.9 8.7 8.4 8.9
9.2
5
10
15
Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15
0
20
40
60
0
500
1,000
Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15
Sales Vol. Export Price (RHS)
Mar-15
48.75
34.46 29.99
26.09
10.50
13.00
M.Litre THB/Litre
29.84
21.38
22.63 24.16
Mar-15 Mar-15
11.50
12.50
LPG Lower import and sale vol. after restructuring
Price +24% Avg.Vol. -0.5%
Industry +2% Auto -12% Household -2% Import -35%
Avg.Vol. +4% Price -19% Export -17%
Avg.Vol. +8% Price -10% Export -14%
Industry -19% Auto +7% Household +13%
Q1/15 Q1/14 % YoY
Gasoil 0.05%S 68 122 -44%
Mogas 67 119 -44%
Dubai 52 104 -50%
122
65 69
105
53 53
119
71 71
30
50
70
90
110
130
Q1/15 Q1/14 % YoY
Gasoil 0.05%S 68 122 -44%
Mogas 67 119 -44%
Dubai 52 104 -50%
Average Price:
615 712 746
4,427
(948)
Q1/14 Q4/14** Q1/15
5,042
(236)
3,927
Oil BU : Volatile oil price led to continued stock loss
Contribution Margin 1/
Oil - EBITDA
Key Highlights
MMTHB
THB/Liter
1/ Excluded non–oil business
17
QoQ
• Monthly oil price volatility in Q1/15 led to continued stock loss. However, contribution margin increased from lower stock loss.
• Volume increased from higher demand, following lower oil price • Significantly better EBITDA performance as a result of improved
margin YoY • Margin declined as a result of stock loss from tumbled oil price • Better sales volume mainly from gasoline, diesel and aviation • Better non-oil business performance from branch expansion • EBITDA decreased mainly due to stock loss
Oil
Non-Oil*
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
* EBITDA from Operating ** Not restated
6,306 6,209 6,386
Q1/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
Sales Volume 2/
MM Liter
2/ Only PTT and PTTRM
12% YoY
59% QoQ
1% YoY
3% QoQ
22% YoY
1,564% QoQ
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
3,181
(78) (3,616) (1,229)
USD/BBL
(Month-end Prices)
แตก graph • ราคา Q1/15 volatile
oil prices lead to stock loss
• Contribution margin
Petroleum Prices
Stock Gain/Loss (MMTHB)
0.92
0.51
0.81
Q1/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Jan’15 Feb’15 Mar’15
Average Price:
Oil BU : Growing PTT internationally to be regional top brand
18
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
BrandAge Thailand's Most Admired Brand 2015
• PTT Station has been voted for 12 consecutive years (2004-2015) • Lubricant Products gains popularity among consumers and has been
voted to be “number 1” for 5 consecutive years
บอกจ านวนสถานใีนปัจจบุนั
อกี 5 ปีเป็นกีส่ถาน ีIn 4 countries totaling
xxx station
(Currently 122 stations)
19 stations
138 stations
57 stations
50 stations
“Double” number of stations in 4 ASEAN countries Target 264 stations by 2018
17
(Currently 123 stations)
105.19
73.98
52.48 0.13
0.06 0.06
Q1/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
0% QoQ
54% YoY
1,940
(331)
740
Q1/14 Q4/14** Q1/15
17,232
19,527 20,144
Q1/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
Trading BU : Performance declined YoY from squeezed margin
Contribution Margin*
Trading - EBITDA*
Sales Volume
Key Highlights
MMTHB
MM Liter
* PTT only : FX Adjustment in compliance with Accounting Standard ** Not restated 19
QoQ
• Sales volume increased mainly from crude import to refineries and new gasoline blending strategy
• EBITDA improve from no non-recurring item YoY • Margins squeezed from higher condensate discount • Increased sales volume from refineries back to operations and
new gasoline blending strategy • EBITDA declined mainly from lower margins of condensate
business ** Not restated
• Import parity • Basket price or
reference price
* PTT only : FX Adjustment in compliance with Accounting Standard
17% YoY
3% QoQ
62% YoY
324% QoQ
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
Contribution Margin (THB/Liter)
NWS ($/BBL)
29% QoQ
50% YoY
Trading BU : Going Forward Turning uncertainties into opportunities
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
20
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
Refineries : Q1/2015 Updates
21
Maximized refinery run at 106% while optimized Aromatics at 66% & Lube at
79%
Feb : Purchase of Land belonging to TPI Aromatics Plc
: Government Pension Fund, taking opportunity of improving share price, reduced stake in IRPC from 4.93% to 0.62%
Apr : Start up the Vacuum Gas Oil Hydro Treating Unit since 12 April 2015
Feb : Purchasing Cogeneration Power Plant from PTT
Mar : Investment in solar power plant project in Japan and establishment of a new
subsidiary (Bangchak Solar Energy Company)
Mar : SPRC and the Ministry of Energy signed the 3rd amendment to the COA, allowing
for resumption of IPO process
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
2,468
(6,444)
4,498
(1,174)
(6,100)
2,601
1,562
(2,489)
1,037 344
(5,779)
3,832
Q1/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
95% 89% 66%
285
207
98
273 252 255
Q1/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
104.5 74.4 51.9
4.07
6.88 8.60
3.82
(4.23)
4.32 5.94
(2.40)
6.71
Q1/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
QoQ • Mkt GRM increased mainly from falling crude oil price (Q3/14:
101.5$/bbl, Q2/14: 106.1$/bbl)
• Q3/14 has large stock loss while Q2/14 had stock gain then A/C GRM decline pretty sharply (Ending Dubai Q2’14>Q3’14 : 108>96$/BBL
whereas Q1’14<Q2’14 : 104<108$/BBL), (stock loss 4R exclude PTTGC (Q3/14= -4.18 $/bbl., Q2/14= +1.06$/bbl)
• Recovered PX spread (PX-ULG95: Q3/14= 371$/ton, Q2/14=220$/ton) from several PX producers cut runs and some plants’ maintenance (also
postponed PX plant start up in SG capacity 800,000 tons/yr. from Aug. to Sept.)
• BZ spread also improved from capacity declined (producers in Japan cut
runs, and postponed operation in SG) in contrast to its improving demand (from imported demand in US, resumed phenol operations in Japan using BZ as feedstock)
YoY • A/C GRM decreased mainly from lower Mkt GRM & more stock loss • A/C GIM also drop from PX spread tumbled on softened polyester
demand & additional PX supply • Lower utilization rate from major refineries’ T/A
Source : PTT, Refining Associates Note: Weighted Avg. GRM of PTT’s associates’ complex refineries (TOP, SPRC, BCP, and IRPC) Weighted Avg. GIM of PTT’s associates’ integrated refineries (TOP and IRPC) Account GRM/GIM = Market GRM/GIM + Hedging Gain/Loss + Stock Gain/Loss
(0.16)
0.95
(0.90)
GRM/GIM
Refinery Utilization
USD/BBL
A/C GRM A/C GIM
Mkt GRM
Dubai
Net Income (100%)
U-Rate (%) Q1/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
Aggregated U-Rate
85 97 97
TOP 105 108 106
IRPC 80 84 84
SPRC 60 103 105
BCP 82 85 91
Aggregated Intake (KBD) 761 662
QoQ: 0.1% YoY: 15%
760
1,120 SPRC: -213
3,783
-54
2,094
TOP: -2,175
9,307
2,453
178
IRPC:22
42
544
1,258
BCP: 380
3,963
3,200
Q2/14 Q3/14 9M/13 9M/14
MMTHB
BCP
IRPC
SPRC
TOP
4,650
-1,986
7,916
54% YoY 143% QoQ
17,094
(38 days ) T/A
Aromatics Aromatics Production
BZ-ULG95
PX-ULG95
+ Insurance Compensation : 521 MB in Q2/14 + Recognized revenue (of 743 Baht million) from fully-operated all 3
phases of Solar Power Plant - Lower A/C GRM (9M/14= 5.34$/bbl, 9M/13 =7.45$/bbl) - Lower U-Rate (T/A 46 days in Q2/14)
TOP 6,854
SPRC 4,050
BCP 763
IRPC 502
- Lower A/C GIM (9M14= 4.70$/bbl, 9M13=8.27$/bbl) from weaken crack spreads and PX spread
- Stock loss due to drop in Dubai price (9M14 stock loss 3,985 MMTHB while 9M13 stock gain 1,378 MMTHB)
- Lower integrated intake from planned major T/A of refinery and aromatics plant (Mid June- End July ~ 46 days)
- Pressured Aromatics : PX margin tumbled
+ Non-recurring items: insurance claim (710 MB), reverse impairment (470 MB), sales of investment (150 MB), etc.
- Lower A/C GIM (drop by 1.3$/bbl) from; the stock loss (decrease 1.44$/bbl), and Mkt GIM decrease (by 0.77$/bbl) while increase in oil hedging gain (increase 0.92$/bbl)
- T/A 23 days (18 Mar – 9 Apr)/ Fire incident on 9 June
- Lower A/C GRM (9M14= 2.72$/bbl, 9M13=5.34$/bbl) - Plant Turnaround: 8 Feb – 7 Apr (total S/D)
9M14 Vs. 9M13
Split stack to bar graph like GRM/GIM
(20,812)
11,968 YoY: 274% QoQ: >1,000%
TOP
SPRC
BCP IRPC
Refining BU: Higher GRM’s and no shutdown provided better performance
22
3,200
BZ: 66% YoY
PX: 7%
-0.90 -11.23 -4.25 Stock Gain/Loss
T/A
(23 days )
BZ: 53%
QoQ
PX: 1%
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
A/C GIM QoQ: 380%
YoY: 13% USD/Ton
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
Refineries : Subsequent/Projects Updates
23
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Ongoing Projects:
LABIX : 92% progress
SPP : 74% progress
Lorry Expansion Project : COD 2H 2016
UHV: Progress 97% %, COD within 2015
JVs:
IRPC A & L : Distribute ABS Products
IRPC Polyol & PCC Rokita SA (Poland) : High value specialty products
IRPC Clean Power :To produce electricity and steam for EGAT’s SPP and UHV project
PPE+PPC: Focus on propylene & polypropylene chain due to solid competitive advantage (Total PP Capacity 775 KTA)
Divestment of Shares in BCP (27.22%) to Vayupak Fund 1 15.25% and the Social
Security Office 11.96%
IPO: Target within 2015
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
1,555 1,448 1,188
1,562 1,459
1,149
Q1/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
91%
63%
89%
4.48 4.91 5.98 4.12
(7.69)
4.17
Q1/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
380 320
217
386 401 333
Q1/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
Net Income (100%)
Aromatics
Unit : MMTHB
6,320
-4,780
5,631
Q1/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
PTTGC
HMC
Others 7,948
618 691
558 643
Q2/14 Q3/14 9M/13 9M/14
Olefins U-Rate 77%
101% 96%
Olefins
HDPE-Naphtha
USD/Ton
BTX U-Rate
101% 101% 102%
Refineries
CDU U-Rate
Stock G/L
A/C GRM Mkt GRM BZ-Cond
PX-Cond
(0.91)
1.11
(0.69)
-0.69 -14.68 -1.50 Stock Gain/Loss Net NRV
Petrochemical BU: Pressured Olefins prices alleviated by Refinery and Aromatics margins
6,944
A/C GRM YoY: 1% QoQ 154%
QoQ
- Refinery business dip as A/C GRM decreased
(Q3/14 =1.64$/bbl, Q2/14= 5.83$/bbl) from stock loss (Q3/14 =
-2.76$/bbl, Q2/14= +0.73$/bbl) with maintained U-rate
+ Olefins business better from higher U-rate in Q3 (with full GSP#5 resumption), and improved Olefins spread
+ Aromatics business recovered from both PX and BZ spreads (PX spread rose by 43% from 334 $/Ton in
Q2’14 to 479 $/Ton in Q3’14 as well as BZ enhanced by 16% from 370 $/Ton to 431 $/Ton)
+There was one-off transaction from Vencorex (French entity) in Q2’14 amounted 1,180 MB (consisted of asset impairment 750 MB and provision cost of employee & others 430 MB according to implementing new strategy)
YoY
+Olefins improved: most spreads largely improved (HDPE-Naphtha: 9M14= 642$/ton,
9M13= 558$/ton)
- Refinery declined: A/C GRM decreased (9M14
=3.84$/bbl, 9M13= 5.06$/bbl) from stock loss (9M14= -0.93$/bbl, 9M13= 0.73$/bbl)
- Aromatics downturn: PX spreads tumbling (drop by 30% from 573 $/Ton in 9M13 to 400 $/Ton in 9M14)
- Vencorex restructuring cost and impairment in
Q2/14 amounted 1,180 MB
HDPE Price
PP Price
HDPE: 24%
YoY
PP: 26%
24
BZ-Cond: 43%
YoY
PX:-Cond 14%
BZ-Cond: 32%
QoQ
PX-Cond: 17%
(3,652)
HDPE: 18%
QoQ
PP: 21%
YoY: 13% QoQ: 290%
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
166 164 219
USD/Ton USD/BBL
Mkt P2F YoY: 32% QoQ 34%
AromaticsMkt P2F
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
Petrochemical : Project Updates
25
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Project Timeline
• Phenol II :
Progress 97%
COD: 4Q15
• TOCGC :
Progress 85%
COD: 3Q15
• ARO 2
Debottlenecking:
Progress 76%
COD: 4Q15
• HDI Derivatives
Plant:
Progress 72%
COD: 4Q15
• PO/Polyol:
COD: 4Q19
• Indo Petrochemical
Complex:
FID: by 2Q17
COD: 2022
• US Petrochemical
Complex:
FID: 3Q16
COD: 4Q20
• HDI Monomer:
COD: 2Q16
• mLLDPE:
COD: 2018
PT
TG
C
M&
A
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
68
59 56
45
37 34
78
64 66
Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
Other Businesses : Coal - SAR (95.26%) Cost reduction initiative relieved the effect of continuing coal price decline
EBITDA & Net Income (100%)
Sales Volume
Key Highlights
MMUSD
USD/Ton
1,958 1,645
1,968
941
598 573
2,899
2,243 2,541
Q1/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
kTon
Jembayan
Sebuku
Avg. Selling Price
Cash Costs
13% QoQ
Avg. Selling Price & Cash cost
New Castle
18%
12% YoY
47.7 32.4
1,027%
NI 9.5
-1.1
Q1/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
EBITDA 11%
42.6
10.2
EBITDA
15%
24%
5%
3%
8%
QoQ
• Sales volume increased ahead of low season from increased spot sales in February, following higher price.
• Cash cost improved from cost saving initiatives, including negotiation of new fuel oil supply and light vehicle contracts used in Sebuku and Jembayan.
YoY
• Sales volume decreased as coal price dropped from oversupply
• Net income increased as efficiency improvement and cost reduction paid off.
26
NI 7%
QoQ YoY
YoY QoQ
32%
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
71
356 460
Q1/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
Net Income* (100%) Sales Volume
Key Highlights
MMBaht GWh
548 % YoY
Other Businesses : Power - GPSC (22.58%) Better performance from higher power and steam sales
1,413
1,966 2,028
1,111 1,279
1,233
Q1/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
‘000 Ton
Capacity*
44 %
4 % 11 % 29 % QoQ
*Adj.TFRIC 4
QoQ
• Higher power sales volume mainly due to Sriracha plant unplanned shutdown in Q4’14.
• Hence better performance /net income.
YoY
• Power sales volume increased due to Sriracha plant planned shutdown in Q1/14.
• Steam sales volume increased mainly from higher customer demand.
• Better performance due to higher power and steam sales.
Power
Steam
3 %
27
Diversified Assets Total Capacity: 1,851 MW
Natural Gas Hydro Renewable
1,472 MW (79%)
347 MW (19%)
32 MW (2%)
Natural Gas Hydro Renewable* Exclude capacity of steam and water
Power Steam
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
YoY QoQ
Other Businesses : Power – GPSC (22.58%) Project Updates
Highlight Activities 2015
Solar Power Plant in Japan
• GPSC acquire 99% share on Ichinoseki Solar Power - 1 GK company
• Size : 20.8 MW • COD: approximately 2017
28
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
2014 2015 2016 2017 2019
1,315 MW
+23 MW
+38 MW
2,451-2,851 MW
+154 MW
+321 MW
Equity story ควร compare กบับรษัิทใน ตลท. Size ของเราเทยีบกบัเคา้เป็นยังไง ท าไมคนควรซือ้ GPSC
2014 2015 2016 2017 2019
GPSC, BIC, RPC, CHPP, TSR
IRPCXP Phase I
NNEG IRPCCP Phase II, BIC, NamLik1
XAYABURI
Additional 600-1,000 MW during 5 years
Total Capacity in 2019
GPSC’s Growth Strategy
Waste Management Project
• Biomass Power Plant in Rayong Province • Size : 6-9 MW of electricity • GPSC is in a process of preparing related contracts
and agreements.
Secured 1,851 MW
Additional 600-1,000 MW
64% Natural
Gas
12% Hydro
11% Renewable
12% Coal
GPSC’s aspiration MW breakdown
in 2019
28
28,538
(26,649)
22,584
Q1/14 Q4/14* Q1/15
104.5 74.4 51.9
PTT Consolidated Performance: Q1/2015
Dubai (USD/BBL) Q1/15 Q1/14
30%
48%
13%
5% 4%
48%
12% 6%
14%
16%
4%
PTT - Oil & Trading
PTT - Gas
Others
PTTEP
684,301 643,851
515,583
Q1/14 Q4/14* Q1/15
25%
29% 15%
21%
10%
PTT
PetChem
Others
PTTEP Refining
Net Income
Unit : MMTHB
EBITDA
Net Income
Revenue 47%
18%
6%
13%
15% 1%
PTT - Oil & Trading
PTT - Gas
Others
PTTEP
Revenue
EBITDA
53%
12%
5%
12%
17% 1%
53%
18%
7%
14%
6% 2%
Revenue
EBITDA
Net Income
30%
46%
17%
-5% 4%
72%
17%
7% 4%
69%
24%
4%
3%
Revenue
EBITDA
Net Income
Q4/14
78,726
51,854 71,739
Q1/14 Q4/14* Q1/15
31
PetChem
Refining
PetChem
Refining
25% YoY
20% QoQ
9% YoY
38% QoQ
21% YoY
185% QoQ
*Not restated
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
0.4 0.3
1.4
1.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
(0.1)
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1 2
Other Liabilities
PP&E
Others Non-
current Assets
Other Current Assets
L/T Liabilities (incl. due within 1 yr)
Total Equity
MMTHB
Cash & S/T Invest
31 Dec 13 30 Sep 14
1,805,041 1,818,746
Statement of Financial Position
PTT Ratings at Sovereign Level
− FC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),
JCR (A-), FITCH (BBB+)
− LC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),
JCR (A), FITCH (A-)
Net Debt/EBITDA ≤ 2.0
Net Debt/Equity≤ 1.0
1,105,147 1,104,299
441,067 439,361
387,484 349,725
316,757 351,572
1,054,694 1,078,330
697,000 688,090
498,761 478,537
1 2 3 4 5
0.2%
2,244,957 2,250,455
31 Mar 15 31 Dec 14
Assets slightly declined :
• Drop in inventory and A/R was primarily from
international trading business due to reduction in
inventory in transit, as of year-end 2014
32
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
2014 Q1/2015
7.71 8.75
13.43
22.40
30.5734.14 34.82
18.3321.06
29.58
37.24 36.58
32.52
19.33
2.50 2.85 4.006.75
9.25 10.50 11.508.00 8.50
10.2513.00 13.00 13.00
11.00
25% 25%
32.4% 32.6% 29.8% 30.1% 30.3% 30.8% 33.0%43.6% 40.4% 34.7% 34.9% 35.5% 40.0%
56.9%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Dividend Policy & Historical Payments
PTT’s minimum payout ratio
PTT is firmly committed to pay dividend at no less than 25% of net income
Baht / share
EPS
DPS
Dividend payout
6.00
5.00
Interim
33
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
Gas 55%
Oil &Trading
R&D, Others 5%
M&A and
Investment Oversea
LNG
Infrastructure 2%
34,88519,398
33,876 40,008 36,751
9,149
4,708
7,0402,882
2,7773,311
5,763
2,2141,177
1,222
24,416
9,034
19,432 16,906 18,169
5,519
22
19 15 7
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
InfrastructureInvestment in Joint Venture and Its subsidiariesR&D and OthersOil and International TradingNatural Gas
Unit: MMTHB
PTT: CAPEX (PTT and Wholly Owned Subsidiaries) PTT plans to invest ~Bt 299 bn* ($9bn) during 2015-2019
CAPEX Breakdown : 5 Years
By Business Unit
JV &
Investment in
Subsidiaries
29%
34
38,925
60,988 58,926
77,280
62,581
4th pipeline & extension
New Station Development
LNG, M&A and Investment Oversea
34
34
CAPEX revision :
• CAPEX lower by ~ $1 bn from $10 bn previously
• Reduction mainly from the 2nd Phase of LPG import facilities
project (Oil BU), given potential fall in LPG import
• Investment in Gas BU maintained, incl. NG transmission pipeline,
LNG import capability enhancement
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
Overview
Performance Q1/15
2015 Outlook
Contents
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
35
: - Low Oil Price helps to support private consumption - Fed possibly delays plan to increase policy rate to 2H’15
: - Accommodative policy measures help to boost domestic demand
: - Exchange rate volatility
36
Economic Outlook : Challenges Ahead
US Market : Economy continue to grow
: - Appreciation of US dollar affected export. EU market: Sign on Recovery
: - Positive sign of EU economic recovery resulted from QE : - Risks of deflationary and debt issues especially in Greece
China market: conservative growth : - Accommodative monetary policy to maintain GDP growth
target at 7.0%
Thailand market: Expected to slowly recover : - Tourism continues to recover after the cancellation of Martial law
: - Delays in government investment projects - Slower-than-expected recovery in export sector
36
AEC market : Government measure to boost economic growth
: - Weak industrial production and the stagnation in real estate sector
PTT Performance: resilient earning amid low oil price environment : - Energy reform on track
: - Uncertainty on Global Economics affects to global reference price
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
Still-on-going in shale production
Lower-than-expected heating demand as mild weather
Factors to watch
US LNG Export Terminal Projects
Source : EIA Annual Outlook, April 2015
Henry Hub Natural Gas Price Forecast
Henry Hub / JKM Price Outlook: Gas price trend to move lower from higher supply
LNG Global Demand/Supply
Korea and China LNG demand are lower-than-expected as Nuclear Reactor starting up as well as slow economy respectively. Mild Weather in winter swept across North Asia region
Japan-Korea Market Price Forecast
Excess Supply expected in L-T
Expected JKM price Y 2015
7-9 $/MMBtu
Factors to watch
Average JKM price 2014 = 14.89 $/MMBtu
Current price @ 7.15 $/MMBtu
Yemen LNG declared FM as result of security deterioration in LNG Plants North Asia buyers might have additional demand during summer period
37
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
93.0 92.7
94.1
94.7 94.5
95.1 95.2 95.1
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
91
92
93
94
95
96
Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15
MBD MBD
World oil Demand(LHS) World Oil Supply(LHS)Stockbuild*(RHS)
56.85 56.60 57.96 60.25
62.16 64.26 65.74
66.40
30
50
70
90
110
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15WTI Brent Dubai Dubai Forecast (PTT Group PRISM) Column2
2014 Dubai $96.6/bbl
Dubai Forecast Y2015 Range $50-60/bbl
106.2 106.3
105.6 105.7 106.0
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14WTI Brent Dubai Dubai Forecast (PTT Group PRISM) Column2
2013 Dubai $105.5/bbl
2014 1H Dubai $105.3/bbl
Dubai Forecast 2H 2014 Range $105-$107/bbl
Clearer sign of the U.S. production growth slowdown
Geopolitical tension in Yemen, Libya
Market expect production policy change in Saudi Aramco after major reshuffles of top management
“World Oil Supply surplus trend to lower in 2H 2015 mainly from the U.S. oil production growth show sign of deceleration”
Dubai $105/bbl
Dubai $105/bbl
Dubai $103/bbl
Source: (PTT Group) Estimated (27.04.2015)
Revised
Crude Oil Outlook: Oversupply conditions persist
Prospects of Iran Sanctions being lifted following a comprehensive deal over its nuclear programme
Peak Global refinery maintenance in Q2/15
Crude Oil Price Forecast in Y2015 range bound 50-60 $/bbl
Psychology level @ 100 USD/BBL
Factors to watch
World Oil Demand/Supply Balance
Source: BOAML , IEA, P Geopolitics
surplus
surplus
surplus surplus
US
D/b
bl
38
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
Source: FACTS, DB, KBC, Reuters , IEA, Reuters, Thaioil and PRISM Estimated ( May 2015)
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15
Schedule refinery turnaround in North Asia in Q2/15
Delayed refinery expansion in India
Forecast
GO
Mogas
FO High fuel oil inflows from Russia
New Barrel from new ME refinery
Singapore GRM Forecast in Y2015 to be around 7-8$/bbl Factors to watch
“Demand & Supply in AP/ME improved from earlier expected as a result of the postponement of Indian refinery start up”
Refinery Margin Outlook : Refinery turnaround season in Q2/15 effect products supply tighten
CDU Additional Vs Additional Demand –AP&ME
V Note: Adjusted capacity based on start-up period (Effective additional capacity) Source: FACTs Semi Annual Reports, October 2014, reuters, Bloomberg, TOP estimate
US
D/b
bl
39
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
New supplies in regional weight down market sentiment
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Ja
n-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Spread HDPE Spread PP
US
D/T
on
Olefins Product Spread
Petrochemical Outlook: Strong ethylene and propylene prices due to tight demand/supply
Source: HIS, ICIS and PRISM
Asia Ethylene Supply/Demand Balance
Factors to watch
Y 2015
Asia Propylene Supply/Demand Balance
Anticipated tight supplies and demands for PE and PP
40
Poor affordability for PE derivatives
Stable-to-firm energy price
Olefins Product Spread Forecast in Y2015
• HDPE-Naphtha expected to be around 640-890 USD/TON
• PP-Naphtha expected to be around 570-810 USD/TON
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
Petrochemical Outlook: Better Benzene and PX sentiments driven from stable-to-firm in crude oil price
Stable-to-firm crude oil price
New benzene capacity and production in Asia together with the extremely large scale of new PX plants.
Aromatics Product Spread
Factors to watch
0
100
200
300
400
500
Ja
n-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Spread BZ Spread PX
US
D/T
on
Source: HIS, ICIS and PRISM 41
Demands from new downstream derivative SM and phenol plants
China economy expands slower than expect
Ca
pa
cit
y A
va
ila
ble
%
Aromatics Product Spread Forecast in Y2015
• BZ-Naphtha forecasted to be around 140-310USD/TON
• PX-Naphtha forecasted to be around 310-390 USD/TON
Overview Performance Q1/15 2015 Outlook
Thank you PTT Public Company Limited – Investor Relations Department
Tel. +66 2 537-3518, Fax. +66 2 537-3948, E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.pttplc.com
Disclaimer
The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. In addition, such information contains projections and forward-looking
statements that reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and
uncertainties. No assurance is given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ
materially from those projected.
Petroleum Reserves and Resources Information
In this presentation, the Company discloses petroleum reserves and resources that are not included in the Securities Exchange and Commission of Thailand (SEC) Annual
Registration Statement Form 56-1 under “Supplemental Information on Petroleum Exploration and Production Activities”. The reserves and resources data contained in
this presentation reflects the Company’s best estimates of its reserves and resources. While the Company periodically obtains an independent audit of a portion of its
proved reserves, no independent qualified reserves evaluator or auditor was involved in the preparation of reserves and resources data disclosed in this presentation.
Unless stated otherwise, reserves and resources are stated at the Company’s gross basis. This presentation may contain the terms “proved reserves”, “probable reserves”,
and/or “contingent resources”. Unless stated otherwise, the Company adopts similar description as defined by the Society of Petroleum Engineers.
Proved Reserves - Proved reserves are defined as those quantities of petroleum which, by analysis of geological and engineering data, can be estimated with reasonable
certainty to be commercially recoverable, from a given date forward, from known reservoirs and under current economic conditions, operating methods, and government
regulations.
Probable Reserves - Probable reserves are defined as those unproved reserves which analysis of geological and engineering data suggests are more likely than not to be
recoverable.
Contingent Resources – Contingent resources are defined as those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from
known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable. The reasons for non commerciality could be economic including market
availability, political, environmental, or technological.
42
43
Debt Profile : Control Cost & Manage Risk
Debt Portfolio
Managed debt according to financial risk and policy
Consolidated PTT Only Unit : MMTHB
: Cost of debts ~ 4.58% : % fixed-rate ~ 77% : Avg. debt life ~ 8.18 years
: Cost of debts ~ 4.50% : % fixed-rate ~ 74% : Avg. debt life ~ 7.03 years
181,399 204,560 198,053 208,298
384,548 380,554
125,972 83,985 82,971
259,665
305,127 300,507
307,371 288,545 281,024
467,963
689,675 681,061
31 Dec 13 31 Dec 14 31 Mar 15 31 Dec 13 31 Dec 14 31 Mar 15
USD THB
(35%)
(65%)
(29%)
(71%)
(30%)
(70%)
(49%)
(51%)
(44%)
(56%)
(44%)
(56%)
Note : Data as of 31 Mar 15 (THB/USD = 32.7028 THB/JPY = 0.273534) Excluding liabilities from finance leases; Cost of debts includes withholding tax. 43
PTT Group Performance : Q1/2015
% share
Unit : MMTHBQ1/14
(Restate)Q1/15 YoY
Q1/14
(Restate)Q1/15 YoY
PTT Net operating Income 13,711 6,638 -52% 13,711 6,638 -52%
E&P - PTTEP 12,435 8,616 -31% 65.29% 8,422 5,616 -33%
- PTTGC 6,320 5,631 -11% 48.89% 3,050 2,684 -12%
- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/ PTTES/
PTTME/PTTMCC/PMMA1,628 1,313 -19% 40-50% 766 635 -17%
Petrochemical 7,948 6,944 -13% 3,816 3,319 -13%
- TOP 2,468 4,498 82% 49.10% 1,243 2,217 78%
- IRPC 344 3,832 1014% 38.51% 202 1,571 678%
- SPRC -1,174 2,601 -322% 36.00% -335 679 -303%
- BCP 1,562 1,037 -34% 27.22% 416 273 -34%
Refining 3,200 11,968 274% 1,526 4,740 211%
Inter - PTTER, PTTGE -591 -347 -41% 100% -591 -347 -41%
Gas -PTTNGD/ TTM(T)/ TTM (M)/ PTTLNG 1,434 1,111 -23% 50-100% 1,018 1,042 2%
Utilities -GPSC/ TP/ DCAP/ CHPP/ BIP/ BIC/ NNEG 301 854 184% 20-30% 94 259 176%
Oil & Oth. - PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/PTTRB/Others 971 1,463 51% 33-100% 542 1,317 143%
Others Business 2,115 3,081 46% 1,063 2,271 114%
Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 25,698 30,609 19% 14,827 15,946 8%
PTT Conso. Net Income 39,409 37,247 -5% 28,538 22,584 -21%
Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT
44
Free Cash flow
52,027 16,713
Investing
Q1/14 -39,231
Q1/15 -87,624
CAPEX(PP&E, Intangible asset) -40,213 -46,059
Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -635 -568
Dividend/Interest Received 830 1,276
Others 787 -42,273
Operating
Q1/14 91,258
Q1/15 104,337
Net Income 28,538 22,584
Changes in assets & liabilities 11,749 43,082
Income Tax -3,104 -2,037
Non-Cash Adjustment 47,429 34,450
Interest-net 6,646 6,258
Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents
243,335 224,980
Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents
196,854 234,212
Cash In/(Out)
46,481 -9,232
Adjustment
-1,118 1,019
Financing -4,428 -26,964
Repayment Loans -23,801 -12,859
Interest paid -8,535 -7,835
Dividend paid -361 0
Received from share issue -359 113
Received from loans/Bonds 28,628 -6,383
Statements of Consolidated Cash Flows : Q1/2015
45
45
46
Free Cash flow
21,672 -597
Financing -2,627 -8,378
Repayment Loans -644 -6,645
Interest paid -2,934 -2,555
Dividend paid -4 0
Received from share issue - -
Received from loans/Bonds 955 822
Investing
Q1/14 -2,629
Q1/15 -19,403
CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset) -6,557 -8,643
Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -7 -300
Dividend/Interest Received 803 545
Others 3,132 -11,005
Operating
Q1/14 24,301
Q1/15 18,806
Net Income 21,558 12,083
Changes in assets & liabilities 5,266 8,046
Income Tax -740 -502
Non-Cash Adjustment -3,880 -2,563
Interest - net 2,097 1,742
Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents
82,971 48,983
Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents
63,926 58,018
Cash In/(Out)
19,045 -9,035
Adjustment
-0.5 -60
Statements of Cash Flows (PTT Only) : Q1/2015
46
Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT (Cambodia) Co., Ltd. PTTCL 100.00% Subic Bay Energy Co., Ltd. SBECL 100.00% PTT Retail Business Co., Ltd. PTTRB 100.00% Thai Lube Blending Co., Ltd. TLBC** 48.95% PTT Tank Terminal Co., Ltd. PTTTANK 100.00% PTT Oil Myanmar Co., Ltd. PTTOM 100.00% Associates Equity Keloil-PTT LPG Sdn. Bhd. KPL 40.00% Thai Petroleum Pipeline Co., Ltd.THAPPLINE 40.40% PetroAsia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. PA(Thailand) 35.00% Others Cost PetroAsia (Maoming) Co., Ltd. PA(Maoming) 20.00% PetroAsia (Sanshui) Co., Ltd. PA(Sanshui) 25.00% Intoplane Services Co., Ltd. IPS 16.67% Fuel Pipeline Transportation Co., Ltd.FPT 0.00024% Others Fair Value Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc. BAFS 7.06%
Others
Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Exploration & Production Plc. PTTEP 65.29% PTT Natural Gas Distribution Co., Ltd. PTTNGD 58.00% PTT LNG Co., Ltd. PTTLNG 100.00% Thai Oil Power Co., Ltd.* TP 26.00% Global Power Synergy Co., Ltd* GPSC 30.10% Joint Ventures Equity Trans Thai-Malaysia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. TTM (T) 50.00% Trans Thai-Malaysia (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. TTM (M) 50.00% District Cooling System and Power Plant DCAP 35.00%
Petrochemical Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Polymer Marketing Co., Ltd. PTTPM 50.00% PTT Polymer Logistics Co., Ltd. PTTPL 100.00% PTT PMMA Co., Ltd. PTTPMMA 100.00% PTT Global Chemical Plc.* PTTGC 48.89% PTT Maintenance and Engineering* PTTME 40.00% PTT Energy Solutions Co., Ltd.* PTTES 40.00% Joint Ventures Equity HMC Polymers Co., Ltd. HMC 41.44% PTT Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. PTTAC 48.50% PTT MCC Biochem Co., Ltd. PTTMCC 50.00% Refining Subsidiaries Consolidate Thai Oil Plc.* TOP 49.10% IRPC Plc.* IRPC 38.51% Refining Associates Equity Star Petroleum Refining Co., Ltd. SPRC 36.00% Bangchak Petroleum Plc. BCP 27.22% Others Fair Value Dhipaya Insurance Plc. TIP 13.33%
Subsidiaries Consolidate Energy Complex Co., Ltd. EnCo 50.00% Business Service Alliance Co., Ltd. BSA * 25.00% PTT Regional Treasury Center Pte. Ltd. PTTRTC 100.00% PTT ICT Solutions Co., Ltd.* PTTICT 20.00%
International Trading Business Group
Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT International Trading Pte. PTTT 100.00%
Remark : *The companies have changed their status to subsidiaries due to impact from PACK5 ** Subsidiaries that PTT holds less than 50% but being consolidated because PTT has the power to control the financial and operating policies.
Petrochemicals & Refining Business Group E&P and Gas Business Group Oil Business Group
Data as of 31 March 2014
International Investment
Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Energy Resources Co., Ltd. PTTER 100.00%
PTT Green Energy Pte. Ltd PTTGE 100.00%
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47
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Natural Gas Price Structure : Jan-Mar 2015
Customers1 Sales Price Structure
Gas Pool Price Supply Margins Pipeline Tariffs + +
Power Producers 59%
: EGAT 27%
: IPP 17%
: SPP 15%
Average Purchased Gas Price
1.75%
1.75%
9.33%
21.9 Bt/MMBtu
GSP 20% Charged at the same price structure of power producers
Petrochemicals Feedstocks
Reference to Saudi Aramco’s contract price
Industry 14% Charged at prices comparable to fuel oil
Gas prices are mostly agreed under long-term contracts and volatility pass-through to ensure stable returns.
NGV 7% Capped at 13.00 Baht/Kg from Jan 2015
Ethane, Propane, LPG Profit-sharing mechanism based on market prices of petrochemicals
NGL Reference to Naphtha market price
Local Cooking Gas
Export Cooking Gas
At GSPs cost (adjusted every 3 months)
• Contract periods are ~ 25-30 years or until depletion of gas fields or the expiration of concessions
1 As at March 2015
48
Natural Gas : Strong and Increasing Demand over Long Term Natural gas is a fuel of choice for power producers and transportation industry
49 Source : PTT
Thailand’s Projected Energy Demand
50
Primary Energy Consumption
Source : EPPO/ PDP 2015 Preliminary ( Jan 2015) / PTT analysis as of Jan 2015
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
32%
40%
15% 11%
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal/Lignite
Hydro/Import
KBD
Renewable
2%
2,438
2,052
31%
38%
16%
13% 2%
28%
34%
20%
5%
13%
2,840
29%
36%
18%
4%
13%
3,240
Gas Business Generates Stable Returns
Sole owner and operator of entire
gas transmission pipelines in
Thailand (> 3,000 km), a regulated
business
• IRROE ranges between
12.5% - 18% for transmission
pipeline investment
Supply & marketing of natural gas
provides fixed margin with long-term
contracts of 25-30 years
6 Gas Separation Plants; Total
production 6.7 MTA; are on
petrochemical market price-linked
profit sharing basis
Overview Gas transmission pipeline capacity
Phu Hom
Nam Phong
Thailand
Ban I Tong
Ratchaburi
Nakhon Sawan
SBK
NBK
The Luang
Nakhon Ratchasima
Kaong Khoi
Samut Prakan
ESB
Bang Pakong
Khanom
Songkhla
Sadao
Yadana
Yetagun
Chon Buri
Rayong
Wang Noi
Thai-Malaysia
(JDA)
Arthit
Arthit–FPSO Erawan
Pailin Bongkot
South Bongkot
Chevron–Additional
Platong
Tantawan
Benchamas
Natural gas fields
Power plants Gas separation plant
1,2,3,5,6 in Rayong
Gas separation unit 4
in Nakhon Si Thammarat
Existing pipeline
Future pipeline
Andaman Sea
51
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