Investor Survey 2020 - nwm.com · The macro view of 2020: An investor’s perspective Imogen Bachra, CFA European Rates Strategy. Investor Survey 2020 | 4 Expectations for global

Investor Survey 2020 | 1

Investor Survey 2020


Contents

Introduction

Expectations for global growth

Global political outlook

Monetary versus fiscal policy

Forecasts for EU government bonds

Sentiment towards foreign exchange and currencies

2020: The year ahead

3

4

6

8

10

11

13

14Appendix: Full survey results


Investor Survey 2020

NatWest Markets’ Investor Survey asked clients to share their thoughts and expectations for the year ahead. A broad range of clients, including financial institutions and corporates, were quizzed throughout Q4 2019 about a host of macro- and market-related topics, including:

• expectations for global growth

• the role that monetary and/or fiscal policy will play in supporting economies in 2020

• the impact of US-China trade relations against the backdrop of a presidential election

To understand how these geopolitical and macroeconomic events might affect both the currency and fixed income markets, we asked specific questions to the different types of investor.

Top five themesThere were several common views shared by respondents, and in this report, we have identified the dominant trends, comparing them with our own perspectives. In summary, the five major themes for 2020 are:

1. Expectations for global growth are pessimistic at best

2. There is optimism about the global political outlook

3. Central banks are largely out of ammunition, except in the US. Fiscal policy is needed

4. Investors expect little change in European bond yields, especially German government bonds (bunds)

5. There is little optimism about emerging market foreign

exchange (FX) and investors prefer safe-haven currencies, particularly sterling

The full survey results can be found on page 14 of this report.

The macro view of 2020: An investor’s perspective

Imogen Bachra, CFAEuropean Rates Strategy


Expectations for global growth

A global slowdown is expectedThe survey respondents expect a significant slowdown in gross domestic product (GDP) growth over 2020 in most regions – especially China, the US and Europe. We think that some pessimism about growth next year is warranted, especially given the deceleration we saw in China’s GDP numbers over 2019, and against the calendar of significant geopolitical events expected in 2020. That said, we have been arguing for some time now that this pessimism is focused on the wrong places. Instead, we believe it is warranted in select pockets across the globe, and at varying degrees.

As you can see from Figure 1, the survey expectations for 2020 growth in China and the US do not differ substantially from NatWest Markets’ forecasts. While we are slightly more optimistic about the US, our forecast for China growth matches that of the survey’s respondents.

NatWest Markets’ view Pockets of pessimism are warranted, less so for Europe

Investor sentiment The outlook for global growth is bleak

China

US

Europe

NatWest Markets 2019 Investor Survey 2020 NatWest Markets 2020

6.1%

2.4%

1.1%

5.8%

1.4%

0.56%

5.8%

1.6%

1.0%

Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020; NWM forecasts 2019 and 2020 Figure 1: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth expectations

“We believe pessimism is warranted in select pockets across the globe, and at varying degrees”

Global growth


Pessimism towards Europe is too strong When looking at Europe, however, we think the pessimism displayed in the survey results is too strong. In fact, it is a theme that has persisted in markets for some time, reflected by the expectations among the survey respondents for growth in Europe for 2020 of 0.56% – almost half of what we forecast.

Why do we think this theme is overdone? For context, over the past 27 years, Europe has only grown slower than 0.6% year on year on five separate occasions – see Figure 2 below. NatWest Markets expects growth of 1.0% in 2020.

Figure 2: Growth in Europe since 1992Source: NWM; IMF WEO

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

Global growth

0.6%


Global political outlook

Political developments are key drivers of growth in 2020 Typically, geopolitical and domestic political events are key for markets, and this is reflected in the results of the Investor Survey. In the main, investors view a Brexit conclusion and a US-China trade deal as the dominant upside risks to growth in 2020. For currency investors, politics is the key driver of foreign exchange (FX) in G10 countries for 2020¹.

Spotlight on the USAccording to the survey results, investors appear sceptical that 2020 will bring meaningful change in US-China trade relations. But the balance of risks among responses shows a clear shift towards a better, rather than worse, outcome (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Where will US-China trade relations be by the end of 2020?

NatWest Markets’ view Less optimistic and more cautious. Consider the details

Investor sentiment Broadly positive expectations for political outcomes

Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Relations worse (eg, tariff rates will be higher than today; addition of other

measures such as capital restrictions, etc)

About the same (small deals/deterioration but essentially little change)

Better (measured by a fair amount of reduction in tariff rates from current levels)

Political outlook

There is also a clear consensus that Donald Trump will win the next presidential election (68%), but we do not share the same degree of certainty. There is a long time between now and the election in November, and getting a firm handle on the Democrat nominee will be important for predicting the outcome. We expect Trump would beat Joe Biden with a narrower margin than Elizabeth Warren, for example.

Notes: (1) G10 countries are Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK and the US.


Spotlight on the UK What about the Brexit deal?

• 47% of respondents expect a harder agreement – ie, a Canada-style deal with a basic Free Trade Agreement. This view is in line with ours. We continue to think that the negotiations will ultimately yield a harder Brexit economic settlement, more in line with Canada’s arrangements than a Norway+ deal.

• The second most popular choice was for a softer agreement – ie, a Norway+ deal with a single market alignment and a customs union (34%). This was surprising for us. As with the US political outlook, it is clear that investors are more optimistic about the possibility of a softer Brexit outcome than we are.

• Only 8% of respondents expect no deal, with a reversion to World Trade Organization (WTO) arrangements. We agree with the consensus and expect that the risks of no deal or a WTO agreement are low.

“Investors are more optimistic about the possibility of a softer Brexit outcome”

Figure 4: What kind of deal will the UK leave the EU with?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Norway+: single market

alignment and Customs

Union

Canada: a basic

Free Trade Agreement

No deal/ WTO terms

The UK remains in

the EU

Political outlook


Monetary versus fiscal policy

NatWest Markets’ view Fiscal policy is finally here, starting in the EU and the UK

Investor sentiment Central banks, except the Federal Reserve in the US, lack monetary options

Central banks are out of options, except in the USThe survey’s pessimism about the growth outlook is coupled with little optimism about the available policy response from central banks, such as the European Central Bank (ECB). As shown in Figure 5, in aggregate, 83% of investors agree that, globally, monetary policy has run its course. The US is seen as the exception, with 29% agreeing that the Federal Reserve still has monetary capacity to respond to a shock. Accordingly, only 14% of respondents expected interest rates to be above 1.5% at the end of 2020 (versus 1.75% as at December 2019).

In brief: the basics of monetary and fiscal policyWhen an economy is in need of support, there are tools that central banks and governments can use to make more money available and to encourage spending, These are designed to help stimulate or slow economic growth and keep inflation at its target rate. The key is finding the right balance.

Monetary policy Action taken by central banks, such as cutting interest rates or keeping already low interest rates stable. Interest rates will rise as the economy improves and inflation rises. Another example is quantitative easing, when central banks will buy large amounts of assets, such as bonds, to pump more money into the economy. Quantitative tightening is the reverse of that, and happens when the economy is overheating.

Fiscal policy Action taken by governments, such as reducing taxes or increasing government spending in select areas, by expanding and re-allocating budgets. When the economy improves, taxes are raised, often to help pay for the government’s additional spending, and governments typically cut further spending.

Figure 5: Is monetary policy out of space?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

No Yes, it can’t defuse the

next recession anywhere

Yes, except in the US

Yes, but fiscal policy will come to the rescue

Yes, the crisis that redefines central

banking is around the

corner

Yes, the time has come

for Modern Monetary Theory

Monetary vs fiscal


2020 is a year of fiscal policy, starting with Europe (and the UK)We expect an increasing divergence between monetary and fiscal policy in the US and the EU in 2020. Interestingly, while there is a clear view that in the EU fiscal policy could, and should, do more, there is little consensus that it will. This is reflected in the survey results:

Monetary vs fiscal

Unsurprisingly, in a world of slowing growth, with limited monetary policy firepower and questions around the size and effectiveness of fiscal policy, investor risk appetite has waned. The survey respondents think safe-haven assets (such as gold) will outperform in 2020. In the fixed income market, respondents prefer government bonds in countries where there is monetary policy space, such as US Treasuries.

of respondents expect fiscal policy to come

to the rescue

of respondents agree that monetary policy

is out of space

83% 18%


Forecasts for EU government bonds

NatWest Markets’ view Pessimistic about Germany, optimistic about Italy

Investor sentiment Optimistic about Germany, pessimistic about Italy

Spotlight on Germany German government bonds (bunds) had a record year in 2019. Yields of 10-year bunds hit new lows of -0.7% in August, and have risen to around -0.2% at the start of 2020. Against this backdrop, however, the survey consensus predicts little-to-no change in yields, with respondents expecting a level of around -0.3% in 10-year bund yields to hold throughout 2020.

We are much less optimistic about the prospect for bund yields than the survey suggests. For the most part, this is due to our confidence in the EU’s economy. As we suggested before, the survey’s mean forecast for 2020 growth in the EU is 0.56%, which is almost half our 1% forecast. This is largely because we anticipate that fiscal policy should mitigate the downside risk. We expect that we could see positive yields in bunds (ie, the price of bunds to fall even further) in early 2020. Only 13% of survey respondents agree with us.

Spotlight on ItalyWe are also more confident about the outlook for Italy and Italian government bonds (BTPs) than is the survey consensus. This is largely due to our expectations for the Italian political environment, which we anticipate will calm in 2020 and see new elections avoided.

As such, we expect demand for Italian government bonds to increase, seeing prices rise and yields fall, aligning closer to bunds. We think the difference or ‘spread’ in yield between BTPs and bunds will reduce to around 100 basis points² by the end of the first half of 2020, and 43% of survey respondents agree with us.

The majority of survey respondents were less optimistic, seeing the spread between BTPs and bunds falling to 142 basis points in 2020.

“We anticipate the Italian political environment will calm in 2020”

European bonds

Notes: (2) 100 basis points is equivalent to 1%


Sentiment towards foreign exchange and currencies

NatWest Markets’ view More optimistic about emerging markets

Investor sentiment Stick to safe havens, especially sterling

Safe havens to perform well in 2020 In terms of currencies, the survey respondents prefer safe-haven markets (such as the US dollar), as you can see from Figure 7. Sterling is expected to be the best performing currency in 2020, with the Japanese yen, US dollar and euro all preferred to emerging market foreign exchange (EM FX).

Indeed, when asked to choose a favourite high-yielding EM FX, the third most popular answer was ‘none’ (see Figure 8 on page 12).

Figure 7: The best-performing currency in 2020 will be…Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

GBP

JPY

USD

EUR

High-yield EM FX

Asia FX

AUD or NZD

NOK

CAD

SEK

CEEMEA FX

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Foreign exchange


There is room for optimism outside of the G10We are broadly more optimistic for riskier currencies and in emerging markets than the survey, especially in the near term. We expect there will be a rethink around the fundamentals and attractiveness of the US dollar, and that asset allocation at the start of the year will help boost EM FX. That said, we are more sceptical beyond the first quarter of 2020.

Figure 8: Favourite high-yield EM FX? Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

INR

BRL

None, they are all a sell

IDR

RUB

TRY

MXN

ZAR

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Foreign exchange


Putting all of this together, one thing becomes clear: the NatWest Markets’ view stands in contrast to the consensus of the survey. Specifically:

• We are less pessimistic on the global growth slowdown, especially in Europe. We believe the survey’s outlook for European growth is unwarranted, especially given growth patterns over the last 27 years.

• When looking at the global political backdrop for 2020, our stance is to

take caution at this stage before making major calls on the outcome for US-China trade tensions or the US presidential election. On Brexit, we expect the government will ultimately agree a harder economic settlement – one more in line with a Canada-style agreement, as opposed to a Norway+ form of agreement.

• While there is a clear view in Europe that fiscal policy could, and should, do more to ease economic malaise, not many respondents think fiscal policy is at a turning point. We expect the theme of policy divergence between monetary and fiscal policy in the US and Europe to build in 2020.

What does this mean for markets?Against this rather complex backdrop, we expect two key trends to impact fixed income and currency markets. In the first, we expect fiscal policy in Europe to impact German government bunds, with yields rising and prices falling. Meanwhile, in Italy, we expect the opposite, with the improving political environment seeing yields fall and prices rise. In terms of currencies, we are broadly more optimistic about riskier currencies and emerging markets than the survey, especially in Q2 of 2020.

Please see the Appendix on page 14 for the full set of survey results.

2020: The year ahead

“There is a clear view in Europe that fiscal policy could do more to ease economic malaise”

Looking ahead


Appendix: Full survey results

Investor Survey

1. Global growth: what is the biggest upside risk in 2020?o Nothing, recession is comingo Central bank easingo European fiscal policy easingo Brexit is concludedo US-China trade dealo Chinese stimuluso Other

2. Chinese growth in 2020?

3. Euro area growth in 2020?

4. US growth in 2020?

5. Global inflation: what is the biggest upside risk in 2020?o Nothing, deflation is comingo Nothing, no deflation but

inflation will be tameo Wage growth o Populismo Trade protectionismo Oil price spikeo A combination of allo Other

6. Is monetary policy out of space? o Noo Y es, it can’t defuse the next

recession anywhereo Yes, except in the USo Y es, but fiscal policy will

come to the rescueo Yes, the crisis that redefines

central banking is around the corner

o Yes, the time has come for Modern Monetary Theory

7. Where will the Brent oil price end 2020? (USD 59 per barrel at time of publishing)? o Above $80o $70 – $80o $60 – $70o $50 – $60o $50 – $40o Below $40

8. What will be the best performing asset in 2020?o Alternative assets

(eg, rare whisky)o EM equity/FIo High-yield credito High-grade credit o Developed markets (DM) equitieso London propertyo Government bondso Goldo Bitcoin

9. Are you a buyer or seller of volatility in…o G10 FX (buyer/seller)o EM FX (buyer/seller)o Rates (buyer/seller)o Stocks (buyer/seller)o Credit (buyer/seller)

Global macro questions


1. Global growth: what is the biggest upside risk in 2020?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

Global macro results

45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%

US-China trade deal

European fiscal policy easing

Nothing, recession is coming

Central bank

easing

Brexit is concluded

Chinese stimulus

Other

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

NWM forecast

5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0

2. Chinese growth in 2020?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

3. Euro area growth in 2020?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

NWM forecast

-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2

Investor Survey


4. US growth in 2020?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

NWM forecast

-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3

5. Global inflation: what is the biggest upside risk in 2020?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%

Nothing, but

no deflation Trade

protectionismA combination

of allWage

growth Oil price

spike Populism

Nothing, deflation

is comingOther

No Yes, it can’t defuse the

next recession anywhere

Yes, except in the US

Yes, but fiscal policy will come to the rescue

Yes, the crisis that redefines central

banking is around the

corner

Yes, the time has come

for Modern Monetary Theory

35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%

6. Is monetary policy out of space?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

Investor Survey


40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%

Above $80 $70 – $80 $60 – $70 $50 – $60 $40 – $50 Below $40

7. Where will the Brent oil price end 2020 (USD)?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

Gold

EM equity/FI

DM equity

Government bonds

High-yield credit

Alternative assets (eg, rare whisky)

Investment-grade credit

Bitcoin

0% 10% 20% 30%

8. What will be the best-performing asset in 2020?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

G10 FX EM FX Rates Stocks Credit

Buyer Seller

9. Are you a buyer or seller of volatility in…Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

Investor Survey


Global politics questions

1. Will Donald Trump be re-elected as US president?o Yeso No

2. Where will US-China trade relations be by the end of 2020?o Relations worse (eg, tariff rates

will be higher than today, addition of other measures such as capital restrictions, etc)

o About the same (small deals/deterioration but essentially little change)

o Better (measured by a fair amount of reduction in tariff rates from current levels)

3. Will the US intervene to weaken the USD between now and the end of 2020?o Yeso No

4. Can the euro area survive a recession?o Yeso Yes, questions will remain about

Italy but contagion is not a risko No, Europe is a crisis away

from failure

5. What will be the likely outcome of a UK general election? (Question asked twice in Q4 2019)o Large Conservative majority

(50+ seats)o Small Conservative majority

(~20 seats)o Hung parliamento Labour-led coalition

6. What kind of deal will the UK leave the EU with?o Norway+: single market

alignment and customs union o Canada: a basic Free Trade

Agreemento No deal/World Trade

Organization arrangementso The UK remains in the EU

Investor Survey


Global politics answers

Yes No

1. Will Donald Trump be re-elected as US president?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

68%

32%

2. Where will US-China trade relations be by the end of 2020?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%Relations worse

(eg, tariff rates will be higher than today, addition of other measures such as

capital restrictions, etc)

About the same (small deals/

deterioration but essentially little

change)

Better (measured by a fair amount of reduction in tariff rates from current

levels)

Yes No

3. Will the US intervene to weaken the USD by the end of 2020?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

26%

74%

Investor Survey


4. Can the euro area survive a recession?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

Yes Yes, questions remain about Italy but contagion

is not a risk

No, Europe is a crisis away from failure

50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%

5. What would the likely outcome of a UK general election be?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

Large Conservative

majority (50+ seats)

Small Conservative

majority (~20 seats)

Hung parliament

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%Labour-led coalition

Answered 18 – 27 October Answered 28 October – 5 November

6. What kind of deal will the UK leave the EU with?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%

Norway+: single market alignment

and customs union

Canada: a basic

Free Trade Agreement

No deal/ World Trade Organziation arrangements

The UK remains in

the EU

Investor Survey


Fixed income investor questions

1. What will be the best-performing fixed income in 2020?o USTso TIPSo EMU core/semi-core o Italyo UK Giltso JGBso Swedeno EM local currency bondso High-yield credito Investment-grade credit

2. Rank ECB president Christine Lagarde’s to-do list for 2020o Rate cutso Increase quantitative easing (QE)o Change the issue/issuer limitso No more easing – fiscal policy

must do the heavy liftingo QE targeted at ‘quasi-fiscal’

schemes (eg, green QE)o Encouraging single market

completion, banking union, etco Yield curve control

3. Where will US Federal funds be at the end of 2020?o Below zeroo 0 – 0.50o 0.50 – 1.00o 1.00 – 1.50o >1.50

4. 10-year USTs by the end of 2020?

5. 10-year bunds by the end of 2020?

6. 10-year BTP/bund spread by the end of 2020?

7. 10-year Gilts by the end of 2020?

8. Best-performing inflation breakevens in 2020?o USo UKo EURo JPY

Investor Survey


Fixed income investor answers

1. What will be the best-performing fixed income in 2020?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

USTs

EM local currency bonds

High-yield credit

Investment-grade credit

Italy

TIPs

UK Gilts

EMU core/ semi-core

JGBs

0% 10% 20% 30%

2. Rank ECB president Christine Lagarde’s to-do list for 2020Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

Most likely

Least likely

Change issue/issuer

limits

No more QE

Increase QE

Rate cuts

Quasi- fiscal

schemes (eg, green

QE)

Encouraging single market

completion

Yieldcurve control

Investor Survey


3. Where will US Federal funds be at the end of 2020?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%Below 0 0.0% – 0.5% -0.5% – 1.0% 1.0% – 1.5% Above 1.5%

4. 10-year USTs by the end of 2020?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

5. 10-year bunds by the end of 2020?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

NWM forecast

0.2 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

NWM forecast

-1.5 -1.25 -1 -0.75 -0.5 -0.25 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5

Investor Survey


30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

NWM forecast

50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350

6. 10-year BTP/bund spread by the end of 2020?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

7. 10-year Gilts by the end of 2020?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

NWM forecast

-0.5 -0.25 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5

8. Best-performing inflation breakevens in 2020?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

5% 11%

24%

60%

EUR

UK

US

JPY

slug hereInvestor Survey


Currency investor questions

1. The best-performing currency in 2020 will be… o USDo EURo JPYo GBPo SEKo NOKo AUD or NZDo CADo CEEMEX FXo Asia FXo High-yield EM FX

2. The main driver of G10 FX in 2020 will be…o Relative growth o Carryo Monetary policy trendso Politics/geopolitical developmentso Long-term (LT) valuationo Momentumo Positioning

3. Which of these factors is the biggest downside risk for the USD in 2020?o Significant, proactive easing

by the Federal Reserveo Unilateral US FX interventiono The outcome of the US

presidential electiono Worsening debt and deficit

dynamicso A meaningful recovery in

European economic activity (Brexit resolution, fiscal stimulus)

o A meaningful recovery in Chinese economic activity (US-China trade deal, Chinese fiscal stimulus)

o A major US equity market sell-offo A US-China trade dealo Other (please specify)

4. Where would you expect GBP/USD to be three months after… o A no-deal Brexito A dealo Article 50 revocation

5. EUR/USD by the end of 2020? (1.1131 at time of publishing)

6. USD/CNY by the end of 2020? (7.0823 at time of publishing)

7. Favourite high-yield EM FX?o None, they are all a sello MXNo BRLo TRYo ZARo INRo RUBo IDR

Investor Survey


Currency investor answers

1. The best-performing currency in 2020 will be…Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

GBP

JPY

USD

EUR

High-yield EM FX

Asia FX

AUD or NZD

NOK

CAD

SEK

CEEMEA FX

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Source: NWM Investor Survey 20202. The main driver of G10 FX in 2020 will be…

3. Which of these factors is the biggest downside risk for USD in 2020?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

30%25%20%15%10%5%0%

35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%

Politics Relative growth

Monetary policy trends

LT valuation

Momentum Carry Positioning

Significant Fed easing

Outcome of US election

Major US equity sell-off

Recovery in EUR econ

Worsening debt/deficit

A US-China trade deal

Recovery in China econOther

Investor Survey


1 1.05 1.1 1.15 1.2 1.25 1.3 1.35 1.4 1.45 1.5

Investor Survey

4. Where would you expect GBP/USD to be three months after…Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

5. EUR/USD by the end of 2020?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%0.9 0.925 0.95 0.975 1 1.025 1.05 1.075 1.1 1.125 1.15 1.175 1.2 1.225 1.25 1.275 1.3

6. USD/CNY by the end of 2020? Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

18%

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

No-deal Brexit A deal Article 50 revocation

NWM forecast

6.5 6.55 6.6 6.65 6.7 6.75 6.8 6.85 6.9 6.95 7 7.05 7.1 7.15 7.2 7.25 7.3 7.35 7.4 7.45 7.5

NWM forecast


Investor Survey

7. Favourite high-yield EM FX?Source: NWM Investor Survey 2020

INR

BRL

None, they are all a sell

IDR

RUB

TRY

MXN

ZAR

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%


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