30
Aluminium for the world INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION Q3 2017

INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    1

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Aluminium

for the world

INVESTOR RELATIONSPRESENTATION

Q3 2017

Page 2: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

DISCLAIMER

2

This document has been prepared and issued by and is the sole responsibility of Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (the“Company”). The document is being supplied to you solely for your information and for use at the Company’s presentation.No information made available to you in connection with the presentation may be passed on, copied, reproduced, in wholeor in part, or otherwise disseminated, directly or indirectly, to any other person. This document and its contents aredirected only to the intended audience. It is being made on a confidential basis and is furnished to you solely for yourinformation. By accepting this material the recipient confirms that he or she is a relevant person. This document must notbe acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment activity to which this document relatesis available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. If you are not a relevant person youshould not attend the presentation and should immediately return any materials relating to it currently in your possession.Forward-looking statements speak only as at the date of this presentation and Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. expresslydisclaims any obligations or undertaking to release any update of, or revisions to, any forward-looking statements in thispresentation. No statement in this presentation is intended to be a profit forecast. As a result, you are cautioned not toplace any undue reliance on such forward-looking statements. You should not base any behaviour in relation to financialinstruments related to the Company’s securities or any other securities and investments on such information until after it ismade publicly available by the Company or any of their respective advisers. Some of the information is still in draft formand has not been legally verified. The Company, its advisers and each of their respective members, directors, officers andemployees are under no obligation to update or keep current information contained in this presentation, to correct anyinaccuracies which may become apparent, or to publicly announce the result of any revision to the statements madeherein except where they would be required to do so under applicable law, and any opinions expressed in them are subjectto change without notice. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given by the Company, its undertakings oraffiliates or directors, officers or any other person as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information oropinions contained in this presentation and no liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of thispresentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to suchinformation.

Aluminium

for the world

Page 3: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

3

01IndustryHighlights

CONTENTS

02ALBAHighlights

03Q3 2017Results

04IndustryPerspectivesin 2017

052017ALBA Priorities

Aluminium

for the world

Page 4: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Aluminium

for the world

01INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS

1 Industry Highlights are based on CRU analysis

Page 5: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Industry Highlights - Q3 2017

World consumption up by 6% YoY

Asian demand rose by 6% YoY supported by Chinese Consumption (+7% YoY) on the back of construction projects and grid-infrastructure spending

MENA demand up by 4% YoY driven by infrastructure spending in Saudi Arabia (+11% YoY)

Europe consumption remains firm, up by 4% YoY, led by steady demand across the transport and packaging sectors

North America demand up by +3% YoY supported by continued growth in Automotive and Construction markets

Aluminium

for the world

Global Physical Demand Remains Strong

5

Page 6: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Industry Highlights - Q3 2017

World production up by 7.5% YoY

Asian supply rose by 11% YoY led by Chinese output ( +13% YoY) due to smelters’ restarts in some provinces and partially offset by winter-closures

North America production flat due to delays in creep-up projects and the reschedule of smelters’ restarts to 2018

World market in deficit with China (-59 Kt) & (-505 Kt) w/o China

Aluminium

for the world

Production Evolution

6

Page 7: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Industry Highlights - Q3 2017

LME inventories at 1.3 million metric tonnes in September

Q3 2017 cash-average was $2,012/t with LME ranging between $1,877/t on July 12 and $2,164/t on September 20

Physical premiums prices continue to fluctuate

Aluminium

for the world

LME & Premiums

7

0

75

150

Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017

132145 144 151

0

100

200

Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017

166211 203

172

Major Japanese Ports (MJP) US Midwest DDP Rotterdam

0

60

120

Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017

69

100117

90

Page 8: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Aluminium

for the world

02ALBA HIGHLIGHTS

Page 9: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Alba Highlights - Q3 2017

Launch of ‘Summer Challenge’ Safety Campaign

Line 5 normalized and Alba sets the benchmark for speed of recovery

Sales volume and throughput up by 0.5% YoY (247,540 mt) and 3% YoY (253,475 mt)

Value-Added Sales averaged 59% of total shipments in the third quarter

Project Titan -- Phase II: YTD savings of US$ 65/mt (impacted by timing of Line 5 recovery)

Line 6 Expansion Project on track with overall progress of 30% from inception till to-date [engineering advanced by more than 60% while contracts and procurement by more than 75%]

Aluminium

for the world

Operational Highlights & Achievements

9

Page 10: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Aluminium

for the world

Safety in Focus -- Towards Safety Tomorrowland

10

Alba Major Highlights - 2017

2

6

10

2013 2014 2015 2016 YTDSep 2017

8

56

3

5

10

70

130

2013 2014 2015 2016 YTDSep 2017

119

5769 64

48

Lost Time Injury (LTI) Trend Total Injuries Trend

Page 11: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Alba Highlights - Q3 & YTD 2017

EBITDA up driven by higher LME prices and solid management performance

Q3: US$ 117 million up by 34% YoY

YTD: US$ 327 million up by 36% YoY

Adjusted Net Income up due to higher EBITDA levels

Q3: US$ 71 million up by 87% YoY

YTD: US$ 189 million up by 103% YoY

Favourable Free-Cash Flow1 up due to higher LME prices

Q3: US$ 93 million up by 111% YoY

YTD: US$ 87 million down by 42% YoY

Aluminium

for the world

Financial Key Performance Indicators

11 1 Free Cash Flow excluding Line 6 CAPEX spending

Page 12: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Aluminium

for the world

03Q3 2017 RESULTS

Page 13: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Aluminium

for the world

13

250

400

550

442

531

0

1 2

86

Q3 2017 vs. Q3 2016 - Metal Sales Bridge (US$M)

Product MixLMEMetal SalesQ3 2016

Pricing Power Metal Sales Q3 2017

Volume

Q3 2017 Results Chinese Smelters’ Closures Boost LME Prices

Sales Bridge Analysis Q3 2017 vs. Q3 2016 Higher LME Prices & Recovery of Line 5

Page 14: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Aluminium

for the world

14

210

235

260

246 248

32

3

3Q17 vs. 3Q16 Sales by Product Line Bridge (MT’000)

Premium Above LME Trend US$ Per MT

100

150

200

179 184

Sales Q3 2016

ValueAdded

Sales Q3 2017

LiquidMetal

Commodity Q3 2016

Q3 2017

Higher Sales Volume Coupled With Higher Premiums

Q3 2017 Results Chinese Smelters’ Closures Boost LME Prices

Page 15: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Aluminium

for the world

15

Q3 2017 vs. Q3 2016 - Direct Cost Bridge (US$M)

Alumina Sales Cost

Cost Analysis Q3 2017 vs. Q3 2016

200

275

350

425

500

367

484

59

12

288

8

18

Direct CostQ3 2017

Plant Spending

Inventory Change

EnergyCons.

RMCons.

RMPrice

Direct CostQ3 2016

Q3 2017 Results Chinese Smelters’ Closures Boost LME Prices

Page 16: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Aluminium

for the world

Favourable Management Performance EBITDA Margin at 19%

16

Q3 2017 vs. Q3 2016 - EBITDA Bridge (US$M)

EBITDA Q3 2017Adjusted

0

100

200

300

87117

89

61

117

318.8%

19.0%

Q3 2017 Results Chinese Smelters’ Closures Boost LME Prices

Selling Expenses

Direct CostOther Sales Metal Sales

EBITDA Q3 2016Adjusted

Page 17: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Aluminium

for the world

Cash Flow Bridge – Q2 2017 to Q3 2017 Maintain Good Cash Position

17

Q2 2017 to Q3 2017 Cash Flow Bridge (US$M) Free Cash Flow (US$M)

-240

-120

0

120

240

128 152

11812 13

413

Cash Balance

2Q17

WCChanges

CAPEXSpent

Net Debt Service

Cash Balance

3Q17

LINE 6CAPEX

CF from

Operations

0

50

100

44

93

Q3 2016 Q3 2017

Operating & Investing Cash Flow excluding LINE 6 Capex

343

Q3 2017 Results Chinese Smelters’ Closures Boost LME Prices

Page 18: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Aluminium

for the world

18

Favourable Management Performance

Financial Summary Q3 2017 Q3 2016 YTD 2017 YTD 2016

Average Cash LME (US$/MT) 2,011 1,620 1,924 1,569

Total Sales (US$M) 613 463 1,609 1,320

EBITDA (US$M) 117 87 327 241

EBITDA% 19.0% 18.8% 20.3% 18.3%

Net Income/ (Loss) (US$M) 69 38 184 93

Gain/ (Loss) Unrealised Derivatives (US$M) (2) 0 (5) 0

Adjusted Net Income/ (Loss) (US$M) 71 38 189 93

Adjusted Net Income% 11.5% 8.2% 11.7% 7.0%

Q3 2017 Results Chinese Smelters’ Closures Boost LME Prices

Page 19: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Aluminium

for the world

04INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVES IN 2017

Page 20: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Industry Perspectives in 2017

Aluminium

for the world

Global Physical Demand to Remain Healthy

20

Key factors to be observed:

Impacts of significantly higher Alumina prices

China pollution crack-down coupled with lower Chinese exports are set to further boost LME prices

Physical premiums expected to remain flat

Global market is expected to be in deficit in 2017 and 2018

LME price expected to range between US$ 2,000/t - US$ 2,100/t

Page 21: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Industry Perspectives in 2017

Aluminium

for the world

Raw Materials Price Trends

21

Alumina prices at multi-year highs due to spike in Chinese demand

Green Coke (GPC) prices are set to edge higher due to shortages and stricter environmental regulations in China

Liquid Pitch and Aluminium Fluoride prices are to increase on the back of higher LME price

Page 22: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Aluminium

for the world

052017 ALBA PRIORITIES

Page 23: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

2017 Alba Priorities

Aluminium

for the world

Sustain Operational Performance & Progress Line 6 Expansion Project

23

Continuous Focus on Safety TomorrowLand Initiatives

Deliver on Project Titan - Phase II

Increase Value-Added Sales

Accelerate Line 6:

- Secure Second Tranche of ECA-Covered Facility

- Award Remaining Packages

Page 24: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Aluminium

for the world

06APPENDIX

Page 25: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Aluminium

for the world

Sales Bridge Analysis YTD 2017 vs. YTD 2016 Higher LME Prices Partially Offset With Lower Sales Volume

25

400

800

1,200

1,600

1,2531,460

239

5

829

YTD 2017 vs. YTD 2016 - Metal Sales Bridge (US$M)

Product Mix

YTD 2017 Results Chinese Smelters’ Closures Boost LME Prices

LMEMetal SalesYTD 2016

Pricing Power Metal Sales YTD 2017

Volume

Page 26: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Aluminium

for the world

26

YTD16 vs. YTD15Sales by Product Line Bridge (MT’000)

Premium Above LME Trend US$ Per MT

350

550

750

718701

14

1615

0

100

200

192 188

Sales Volume Down Following the Power Outage Incident

YTD 2016 YTD 2017

YTD 2017 Results Chinese Smelters’ Closures Boost LME Prices

Sales YTD 2016

ValueAdded

Sales YTD 2017

LiquidMetal

Commodity

Page 27: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Aluminium

for the world

27

YTD 2017 vs. YTD 2016 - Direct Cost Bridge (US$M)

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,054

1,250

93

22 77

53

23

26

Direct CostYTD17

Cost Analysis YTD 2017 vs. YTD 2016

Direct CostYTD16

RMPrice

Alumina Sales Cost

RMCons.

EnergyCons.

Inventory Change

Plant Spending

YTD 2017 Results Chinese Smelters’ Closures Boost LME Prices

Page 28: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Aluminium

for the world

Higher LME Prices and Favourable Management Performance Adjusted EBITDA Margin at 20.3%

28

YTD 2017 vs. YTD 2016 - EBITDA Bridge (US$M)

0

200

400

600

241327

206

83

196

7

20.3%

18.3%

EBITDA YTD16Adjusted

Metal Sales

Other Sales Direct Cost Selling Expenses

EBITDA YTD17Adjusted

YTD 2017 Results Chinese Smelters’ Closures Boost LME Prices

Page 29: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

Aluminium

for the world

Cash Flow Bridge – YTD 2017 vs. FY 2016 Maintain Good Cash Position

29

FY 2016 to Q3 2017 Cash Flow Bridge (US$M) Free Cash Flow (US$M)

0

50

100

150

149

87

YTD 2016 YTD 2017

Operating & Investing Cash Flowexcluding LINE 6 CAPEX

-500

-250

0

250

500

177 152

327

170

71

737 704

78

Cash Balance

2016

Payment to

Shareholders

WCChanges

CAPEXSpent

Net Debt Service

Cash Balance

3Q17

LINE 6CAPEX

CF from

Operations

YTD 2017 Results Chinese Smelters’ Closures Boost LME Prices

Page 30: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...presentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information. Aluminium for

30

Alba4World alba4world user/Alba4World photos/alba4world

Aluminium

for the world

For More Information, Contact Us on:

[email protected]