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Investor presentation Berenberg Conference 1 December 2015 Mexico City – part of Cities Changing Diabetes

Investor presentation Berenberg Conference 1 December … · Investor presentation Berenberg Conference 1 December ... 3,50 4,72 11,82 11,82 Investor presentation Berenberg Conference

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Slide 1

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Investor presentation

Berenberg Conference

1 December 2015

Mexico City – part of Cities Changing Diabetes

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Investor presentation Berenberg Conference 2015

Forward-looking statements

Novo Nordisk’s reports filed with or furnished to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including this document as well as the company’s Annual Report 2014 and Form 20-F, both filed with the SEC in February 2015, and written information released, or oral statements made, to the public in the future by or on behalf of Novo Nordisk, may contain forward-looking statements. Words such as ‘believe’, ‘expect’, ‘may’, ‘will’, ‘plan’, ‘strategy’, ‘prospect’, ‘foresee’, ‘estimate’, ‘project’, ‘anticipate’, ‘can’, ‘intend’, ‘target’ and other words and terms of similar meaning in connection with any discussion of future operating or financial performance identify forward-looking statements. Examples of such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to:

• Statements of targets, plans, objectives or goals for future operations, including those related to Novo Nordisk’s products, product research, product development, product introductions and product approvals as well as cooperation in relation thereto

• Statements containing projections of or targets for revenues, costs, income (or loss), earnings per share, capital expenditures, dividends, capital structure, net financials and other financial measures

• Statements regarding future economic performance, future actions and outcome of contingencies such as legal proceedings, and

• Statements regarding the assumptions underlying or relating to such statements.

These statements are based on current plans, estimates and projections. By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific. Novo Nordisk cautions that a number of important factors, including those described in this document, could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in any forward-looking statements.

Factors that may affect future results include, but are not limited to, global as well as local political and economic conditions, including interest rate and currency exchange rate fluctuations, delay or failure of projects related to research and/or development, unplanned loss of patents, interruptions of supplies and production, product recall, unexpected contract breaches or terminations, government-mandated or market-driven price decreases for Novo Nordisk’s products, introduction of competing products, reliance on information technology, Novo Nordisk’s ability to successfully market current and new products, exposure to product liability and legal proceedings and investigations, changes in governmental laws and related interpretation thereof, including on reimbursement, intellectual property protection and regulatory controls on testing, approval, manufacturing and marketing, perceived or actual failure to adhere to ethical marketing practices, investments in and divestitures of domestic and foreign companies, unexpected growth in costs and expenses, failure to recruit and retain the right employees, and failure to maintain a culture of compliance.

Please also refer to the overview of risk factors in ‘Be aware of the risk’ on p 42-43 of the Annual Report 2014 on the company’s website novonordisk.com.

Unless required by law, Novo Nordisk is under no duty and undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement after the distribution of this document, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Important drug information

• Victoza® (liraglutide 1.2 mg & 1.8 mg) is approved for the management of type 2 diabetes only

• Saxenda® (liraglutide 3 mg) is approved in the US and EU for the treatment of obesity only

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0

20

40

60

80

2,010 2,011 2,012 2,013 2,014

Th

ou

san

ds

Reported annual diabetes care sales Global diabetes care value market share

Novo Nordisk has generated double-digit diabetes sales growth and holds a strong diabetes market leadership

1 CAGR for 2010-2014

Other diabetes care Insulin

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

CAGR1 11.2%

DKK billion

GLP-1

Source: IMS MIDAS Monthly MAT value figures

Sep 2005

Sep 2015

28%

GSK

Merck Eli Lilly Sanofi

Takeda

Novo Nordisk

AstraZeneca Novartis

0%

10%

20%

30%

Investor presentation Berenberg Conference 2015

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Growth analysis – First nine months of 2015

North America is the main contributor to growth

Sales as reported – First nine months of 2015

Local currencies Growth Share of growth

North America 10% 56%

Europe 3% 8%

International Operations 17% 27%

Region China 5% 6%

Japan & Korea 5% 3%

Total sales 9% 100%

International Operations

+23%

Region China +26%

Japan & Korea +10%

North America +33%

Europe +4%

52%

19%

14%

10%

5%

Sales of DKK 79.1 billion (+23%)

Investor presentation Berenberg Conference 2015

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Local currencies Growth Share of growth

New-generation insulin 137% 10%

Modern insulin 6% 32%

Human insulin 1% 1%

Victoza® 21% 36%

Other diabetes and obesity care1 4% 2%

Diabetes and obesity care 9% 81%

Haemophilia 4% 5%

Norditropin® 10% 8%

Other biopharmaceuticals2 14% 6%

Biopharmaceuticals 8% 19%

Total 9% 100%

Growth is driven by Victoza® and modern insulin

Sales as reported – First nine months of 2015 Growth analysis – First nine months of 2015

1 Predominantly oral antidiabetic products, needles and Saxenda®

2 Predominantly hormone replacement therapy

Other biopharmaceuticals +31%

7% Haemophilia

+17% 11%

Diabetes and obesity care

+24%

79%

3%

79%

10%

7% 4%

Norditropin®

+23%

Sales of DKK 79.1 billion (+23%)

Investor presentation Berenberg Conference 2015

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59%

7% 7%

27%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Source: IMS NPA MAT, August 2015

US GLP-1 market development

Source: IMS NPA MAT, August 2015

Total TRx Growth rate

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Thousands

US GLP-1 market shares

exenatide Victoza®

albiglutide dulaglutide MAT GLP-1 TRx (000)

GLP-1 TRx market share

MAT volume growth rate

Victoza® maintains leadership in the faster growing US GLP-1 market

Aug 2015

Aug 2012

Aug 2012

Aug 2015

Investor presentation Berenberg Conference 2015

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0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Levemir® gains US market share despite introduction of glargine U300

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Note: Reported sales first nine months of 2015

Levemir® sales growth driven by strong performance in North America

North America drives strong Levemir® growth despite increased competition

68%

North America

Europe IO China Japan & Korea

DKK billion

14%

Growth in local currency

-1% 9%

6% -17%

Source: IMS MAT volume figures, August 2015

glargine U100

Levemir® NPH

Aug 2012

Aug 2015

glargine U300

0.5%

66%

24%

10%

Investor presentation Berenberg Conference 2015

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Key launch observations Tresiba® value share of basal insulin segment

in selected countries

Roll-out of degludec portfolio is progressing

Note: Limited IMS coverage in India Source: IMS Monthly value figures, August 2015 *Tresiba® distribution in Germany to be ceased following the negative price negotiation outcome with the German national association of statutory health insurance funds

Months from launch

• Tresiba® launched in 36 countries

• Tresiba® has shown solid penetration in markets with similar reimbursement as insulin glargine

• Penetration of Tresiba® remains modest in markets with restricted market access compared to insulin glargine

• Tresiba® to be launched in the US early 2016

• Ryzodeg® commercially launched in Mexico, India and Bangladesh

• Xultophy® launched in Switzerland, Germany, the United Kingdom and now Sweden

31%

6%

15%

8%*

3%

3%

10%

14% 16%

26%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Mexico

Switzerland

Japan India Sweden Denmark

Germany Argentina Brazil

United Kingdom

Investor presentation Berenberg Conference 2015

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Duration of action1

Note: Comparison based on US Package Inserts (PI) for listed products, not based on head to head comparisons. 1 Based on Glucose Infusion Rate (GIR) data from euglycemic clamp studies; 2 Tresiba PI section 12.2; 3 glargine U100 PI section 12.2; 4 glargine U300 PI section 12.2; 5 Tresiba PI Highlights section; 6 glargine U100 PI Highlights section; 7 glargine U300 PI Highlights section; 8 Tresiba PI section 14; 9 glargine U300 PI section 14.1; 10 Tresiba U200 PI

Administration and dosing

Pen device

In-use time

• Up to 24 hours3

• Once daily at any time of day, at the same time every day6

• 300 units/pen

• 80 units max per injection

• Push button extension

• 28 days at room temperature

• Up to 36 hours4

• Once daily at any time during the day, at the same time every day7

• Higher dose needed vs glargine U1009

• 450 units/pen

• 80 units max per injection

• Push button extension

• 42 days at room temperature

• At least 42 hours2

• Once daily at any time of day5

• Numerically lower dose needed vs glargine U1008

• 600 units/pen10

• 160 units max per injection10

• No push button extension

• 56 days at room temperature

glargine U100 glargine U300

Tresiba® has distinctly different product features than competitor basal insulins

Investor presentation Berenberg Conference 2015

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10,206

5,021

2,122

1,600 0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

• Encouraging Saxenda® uptake continues

• Temporary and contracted coverage emerging earlier than expected with gradual improvements in formulary access with more than 50 million lives now covered

• The SCALE Diabetes Trial manuscript was published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) on 18 August, 2015, highlighting key efficacy and safety data points

Note: IMS reporting for new launches may reflect data instability due to small volume and/or supplier reporting Source: IMS NPA TRx, Weekly data, 25 September 2015

Prescription volume uptake of anti-obesity medications recently launched in the US Key launch observations

Encouraging early prescription development for Saxenda®

Investor presentation Berenberg Conference 2015

TRx volume

Weeks from launch

Saxenda®

lorcaserin

phentermine & topiramate

naltrexone HCI & bupropion HCI

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

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-4.5

-5.6 -5.2

-3.7

-1.9

-1.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

In phase 3 trials semaglutide shows strong efficacy across treatment cascade with potential as best in-class GLP-1

Comparison of HbA1c and weight lowering effect in SUSTAIN 1, 3 and 4 trials

* p < 0.001; QD: once daily; QW: once weekly. 1 Adjusted from 73% to 72% of patients reaching HbA1c ≤7% and weight loss from -4.6 to -4.5 kg and from -3.8 to -3.7 kg respectively after post trial validation. 2 Adjusted from 66% to 67% of patients reaching HbAc1 of ≤7% and weight loss from -1.8 to -1.9 kg after post trial validation. Source: Novo Nordisk on file (NN9535-3623, NN9535-3624, NN9535-3625)

-1.6 -1.5

-1.6 -1.5

-0.9

-1.2

-2.0

-1.6

-1.2

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

Ch

an

ge i

n H

bA

1c (

%)

Semaglutide 1 mg Placebo Semaglutide 0.5 mg Exenatide QW Insulin glargine QD

SUSTAIN 11 SUSTAIN 32 SUSTAIN 4

Ch

an

ge i

n w

eig

ht

(kg

)

Baseline 8.1% 8.4% 8.2% Baseline 92 kg 96 kg 93 kg SUSTAIN 11 SUSTAIN 32 SUSTAIN 4

72% 74% 25% 67% 40% 73% 58%

% patients HbA1c ≤7%

38%

*

* * * *

*

*

*

*

Investor presentation Berenberg Conference 2015

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5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

HbA1c reduction from a mean baseline of 7.9% Weight loss from a mean base line of 92 kg

Oral semaglutide dose dependently reduced HbA1c and body weight in a 26-week phase 2 trial in type 2 diabetes

Inclusion criteria: Type 2 diabetes; 7.0% ≤ HbA1c ≤ 9.5%; treatment with diet and exercise with or without metformin; sc: subcutaneous; sema: semaglutide Source: Novo Nordisk on file (NN9924-3790)

Investor presentation Berenberg Conference 2015

Placebo Sema 2.5 mg Sema 5 mg Sema 10 mg Sema 20 mg Sema 1 mg sc Sema 40 mg

HbA1c (%) Weight loss (kg)

0.0

Time (weeks) Time (weeks)

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Strong R&D newsflow expected to continue in 2016 and beyond

Project Before end H1 2016 H2 2016 2017 2018

Tresiba® SWITCH results DEVOTE results

Semaglutide – QD GLP-1 Phase 2 results

Phase 2 initiation LAI287 – QW basal insulin

Semaglutide – QD GLP-1 Phase 2 results

NN9838 – Amylin analogue Phase 1 results

Faster-acting insulin aspart US & EU submission

Semaglutide – QW GLP-1 Phase 3a completion

Victoza® LEADER results

Diabetes Obesity Haemophilia Growth disorders

1 Phase 2 trial initiation for paediatric use; AGDH: adult growth hormone deficiency

OI338GT – Oral insulin Phase 2a results

G530L – Glucagon analogue Phase 1 results

Xultophy® FDA approval decision

N9-GP – Long-acting rFIX US & EU submission

NN8640 – Once-weekly GH Phase 2 initiation GHD1

Oral semaglutide Phase 3a results

N8-GP – Long-acting rFVIII US & EU submission

Phase 3 results AGHD

NN7415 – Concizumab Phase 1b results

Investor presentation Berenberg Conference 2015

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Financial outlook for 2015

The financial outlook is based on an assumption of a continuation of the current business environment and given the current scope of business activities and has been prepared assuming that currency exchange rates remain at the level as of 27 October 2015

Investor presentation Berenberg Conference 2015

Sales growth - local currencies

Sales growth - reported

Operating profit growth - local currencies

Operating profit growth - reported

Net financials

Effective tax rate

Capital expenditure

Free cash flow

Expectations 29 October 2015

7-9%

Around 13 percentage points higher

Around 20%

Around 22 percentage points higher

Loss of around DKK 5.6 billion

Around 20%

Around DKK 5.0 billion

Around DKK 2.9 billion

Around DKK 33-35 billion

Previous expectations 6 August 2015

Depreciation, amortisation and impairment losses

7-9%

Around 14 percentage points higher

Around 19%

Around 23 percentage points higher

Loss of around DKK 5.7 billion

Around 21%

Around DKK 5.0 billion

Around DKK 3.0 billion

Around DKK 33-35 billion

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Mix: conversion from vial/syringe to devices and conversion from human insulin to modern insulin and from modern insulin to new-generation insulin Source: IMS market share estimates for the period Q3 2010 to Q3 2015

Components of insulin sales growth Composition of product mix growth

6%

-1%

1%

2%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Upgrade to higher value products is expected to continue contributing to growth

Investor presentation Berenberg Conference 2015

Market share Price Mix Market growth

Sales growth

2010-2015 Future

Continued conversion from vial/syringe to devices

Continued upgrade from human insulin to modern insulin

Roll-out of insulin/GLP-1 combination

Upgrade from modern insulin to new- generation insulin

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Operating margin leverage limited near term due to global launch activities and progression of pipeline

Gross margin Research & Development Sales & Distribution

• The marginal improvements in manufacturing costs of mature diabetes products are declining

• Future gross margin improvements expected to be driven by value upgrade

• Significant investments in both pre- and post-approval trials

• R&D ratio expected to stay around current level depending on timing of late stage pipeline

• Broad portfolio of products to be launched

• S&D ratio expected to stay around current level

Investor presentation Berenberg Conference 2015

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Share information Investor Relations contacts

Investor contact information

Novo Nordisk’s B shares are listed on the stock exchange in Copenhagen under the symbol ‘NOVO B’. Its ADRs are listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol ‘NVO’. For further company information, visit Novo Nordisk on the internet at: novonordisk.com

Peter Hugreffe Ankersen +45 3075 9085 [email protected]

Daniel Bohsen +45 3079 6376 [email protected]

Melanie Raouzeos +45 3075 3479 [email protected]

Kasper Veje +45 3079 8519 [email protected]

In North America:

Frank Daniel Mersebach

+1 609 235 8567

[email protected]

Novo Nordisk A/S Investor Relations Novo Allé, DK-2880 Bagsværd

Upcoming events

Investor presentation First nine months of 2015

03 Feb 2016 Financial statement for 2015

18 Mar 2016 Annual General Meeting 2016

29 Apr 2016 Financial statement for the first three months of 2016

05 Aug 2016 Financial statement for the first six months of 2016

28 Oct 2016 Financial statement for the first nine months of 2016