20
1 Investor Presentation September, 2009

Investor presentation 2009 - KBC.com · This presentation is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    1

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Investor presentation 2009 - KBC.com · This presentation is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security

1

Investor PresentationInvestor Presentation

September, 2009September, 2009

Page 2: Investor presentation 2009 - KBC.com · This presentation is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security

2

Important information for investors

This presentation is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security issued by KBC.

KBC believes that this presentation is reliable, although some information is condensed and therefore incomplete. KBC cannot be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from the use of the information.

This presentation contains non-IFRS information and forward-looking statements with respect to the strategy, earnings and capital trends of KBC, involving numerous assumptions and uncertainties. The risk exists that these statements may not be fulfilled and that future developments may differ materially. Moreover, KBC does not undertake to update the presentation in line with new developments.

By reading this presentation, each investor is deemed to represent that it possesses sufficient expertise to understand the risks involved.

Page 3: Investor presentation 2009 - KBC.com · This presentation is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security

3

302

-906

493554708639936979

We are back on track…

-2.625 -3.600

-107-313-183-126-7

58212

2Q 20091Q 2009

-4.065

4Q 2008

-2.801

3Q 2008

-1.457

2Q 20081Q 20084Q 20073Q 20072Q 20071Q 2007

Exceptional items

Amounts in m. EUR

2Q 08 3Q 08

-2.625

4Q 08

-3.600

1Q 09 2Q 091Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08

Reported net profit

Page 4: Investor presentation 2009 - KBC.com · This presentation is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security

4

Solid income and expenses development

• While loan growth slowed down, net interest income benefits from favourable credit spread environment combined with steep yield curve

• Non-interest income rebounded on back of improving investment climate (asset management fees) and solid performance on debt capital markets (trading income)

• Operating expenses down 14% year-on-year; reduction across all business units (-8% in Belgium, -15% in CEE, -30% in Merchant Banking, -6% in Private Banking)

• Underlying cost/income ratio (banking) down to 56%; back to pre-crisis level

Amounts in m. EUR

2Q 2009

2.353

1Q 2009

2.222

4Q 2008

3Q 2008

2.170

2Q 2008

2.550

1Q 2008

2.260

4Q 2007

2.196 2.192

1Q 2007

2Q 2007

3Q 2007

2.488

2.293

2.503

Total income Operating expenses

1.235

1Q 2009

1.196

2Q 2009

4Q 2008

1.646

3Q 2008

1.278

2Q 2008

1.383

1Q 2008

1.284

4Q 2007

1.376

3Q 2007

1.266

2Q 2007

1.314

1Q 2007

1.208

Page 5: Investor presentation 2009 - KBC.com · This presentation is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security

5

Loan losses remain within expectations

0.70%

0.59%

1.69%

0.13%

1Q 09credit cost

ratio

0.90%0.39%0.71%0.48%Merchant

0.76%1.01%

1.31%

1.75%

0.14%

1H 2009credit cost

ratio

0.71%

2.75%

0.31%

Peak ‘99 –’08

0.33%

0.92%

0.16%

Average ‘99 –’08

0.73%CEE

Incl. US RMBS*

0.46%Total Incl. US RMBS*

0.09%Belgium

2008credit

cost ratio

Credit cost ratio, amount of losses incurred on troubled loans as a % of total average outstanding loan portfolio

* At year-end 2008, KBC reclassified Asset Backed Securities as ‘Loans and Receivables’ under IAS39

• Expected to remain very low in Belgium (ytd 14 bps and 31 bps historical peak); guidance for CEER FY09 to maintain credit cost at 200-230 bps (below historical peak)

• Main CEE markets seem to be out of recession, but questions remain about pace of recovery and fall-out on corporate entities and households

• Trends closely monitored for CEE (Hungary, Russia, unsecured consumer lending in Poland, etc.) and Merchant Banking (Ireland, reclassified US RMBS portfolio)

Page 6: Investor presentation 2009 - KBC.com · This presentation is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security

6

Update on CDO portfolio

• State guarantee caps downside risk, potential to reverse write-downs left intact

• Tightening of credit spread and valuation impact of guarantee triggered 1.6 bn reversal of MtM losses in 2Q 2009 (another 0.2 bn in July / August so far)

• Following 2Q write-back, P&L would have to bear next 1.2 bn of markdowns if credit spreads were to widen again (though regulatory capital benefits from offsetting impact of guarantee!)

-1.0 bn

Claimed events

fully written down or 90% state guarantee

Protected byFV loss booked

Nominal

26 bn - 7.4 bnCDO-linked exposure(largely corporate reference pool)

State guarantee includes 10% risk sharing beyond set loss of 5.2 bn, on aggregate. All KBC-originated CDO Mezz notes were written down, however, excl. 0.8 bn third-party CDOs

Page 7: Investor presentation 2009 - KBC.com · This presentation is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security

7

Update on other structured productsbusiness

(1) This amount reflect market value

2.4 bn1.6 bn1.3bn

0.6 bn 10.1 bn

Started 4Q 08Started 4Q 08Started 2Q 09Started 2Q 09

Almost completed

- Exotic equity derivatives - Fund derivatives- US reverse mortgages- Life insurance settlements- Alternative investments

Nominal outstandingExit statusInvestment banking business lines

• Strategy to exit activities in order to free up capital and reduce risk profile of group• Structured products are complex and have a long duration; ‘unwinding losses’

cannot be ruled out• In 2Q09, 0.7 bn of reserves set aside against future ‘unwinding losses’

Page 8: Investor presentation 2009 - KBC.com · This presentation is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security

8

Preparing for the future

• Strategy review announced at year-end 2008: Refocus business portfolio on core activities in core markets Downsizing corporate banking presence outside home markets and cutting

investment banking activities (run-off of structured products business)• Update mid-2009:

RWA shrinkage and cost control underway Senior management team renewed Strategy review ongoing, outcome dependent on EU approval (provisional

clearance been granted) Pending regulatory approval, embargo on calls of perpetual hybrid instruments

• Strategy update will result in release of significant amount of capital (RWA shrinkage, divestments not ruled out) while safeguarding core earnings power. Together with future retained earnings, capital release will contribute to repurchase of State capital

Page 9: Investor presentation 2009 - KBC.com · This presentation is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security

9

Wrap Up

• ‘Back to black’ after 3 consecutive quarters of CDO-related losses

• Capital situation stabilised (including 7 bn state capital injection): Tier-1 ratio >10% of which core > 8% and CDO-related risk capped by State guarantee

• Resilient underlying business: margin recovery, healthy non-interest-income trend

• Restructuring process underway: significant progress made on shrinking investment banking activities, cost control initiatives on track, new management team on board

• Non-performing loans to continue to climb in the next quarters (risk cost anticipated to be sufficiently absorbed by regulatory capital buffer)

• ‘New-born KBC’ will be more focused on core franchise, with sustainable earnings power remaining intact (and a lower risk profile)

Page 10: Investor presentation 2009 - KBC.com · This presentation is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security

10

Annexes

Page 11: Investor presentation 2009 - KBC.com · This presentation is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security

11

Reminder: business profile

Allocation of capital as of 31-Dec-08

Strategy, capital & risk management

1

Belgium BU:±

CEE 4

Czech RepublicPoland

HungarySlovakia

42% of allocated capital

Shared Services & Operations

Merchant Banking(Belgium & international)

Belgium(retail) Private

Banking

Central & Eastern Europe

Private Banking BU:4% of capital

1

Belgium BU:28% of capital

Other

RussiaBulgariaSerbia

(Slovenia)

- Investmentbanking

Commercialbanking

Merchant Banking BU: 42% of capitalCEE BU:

26% of capital

2 3 4

Page 12: Investor presentation 2009 - KBC.com · This presentation is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security

12

Legal structure of KBC Group

Listed shares,State capital securites

Listed bonds,hybrid Tier-1 debt

Page 13: Investor presentation 2009 - KBC.com · This presentation is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security

13

BULGARIA

CZECH REP

ESTONIA

HUNGARY

LATVIA

LITHUANIA

POLAND

ROMANIA

RUSSIA

SLOVAKIA

UKRAINE

SERBIA

BELARUS

CEE-4

Presence in CEER

Main markets

Czech RepublicTotal assets: 30 bn Bank ranking: Top 3Insurance ranking: Top 5Entry: 1999

HungaryTotal assets: 12 bn Bank ranking: Top 3Insurance ranking: Top 10Entry: 2000

PolandTotal assets: 7 bn Bank ranking: Top 10Insurance ranking: Top 3Entry: 2001

SlovakiaTotal assets: 6 bn Bank ranking: Top 5Insurance ranking: Top 10Entry: 1999

New markets

RussiaTotal assets: 4 bn Bank ranking: Top 25Entry: 2007

BulgariaTotal assets: 1 bn Bank ranking: Top 10Insurance ranking: Top 3Entry: 2007

SerbiaTotal assets: 0.2 bn Bank ranking: Top 25Entry: 2007

Assets in billions of euros at 31 Dec. 2008‘Entry’ means year in which a majority shareholding was acquired

Page 14: Investor presentation 2009 - KBC.com · This presentation is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security

14

BELGIUM

BULGARIA

CZECH REP

ESTONIA

FRANCE

GERMANY

GREECE

HUNGARY

IRELAND

LATVIA

ITALY

LITHUANIA

POLAND

ROMANIA

RUSSIA

SLOVAKIA

SPAIN

U K

UKRAINE

Macroeconomic updateSource: Financial Times, 20 Aug 2009

NETHERLANDS

SERBIA

Based on GDP, CPI and unemployment trends

N/A-1.5%-5.4%IRL

-1.4%

-1.8%

-1.7%

-2.7%

-1.9%

0.0%

-0.6%

-1.8%

4Q 08

-2.1%-2.5%HU

-0.3%

-0.8%

-0.4%

-0.6%

-0.1%

+2.2%

+0.3%

2Q 09

-9.0%RU

-1.7%BE

-3.4%CZ

-11%SK

+0.4%PL

-2.4%UK

-1.7%US

1Q 09QoQ change in GDP growth

Update on exposure to CEE

Page 15: Investor presentation 2009 - KBC.com · This presentation is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security

15

Update on exposure to Ireland

• NPL at 5.6%, bringing credit cost ratio to 67 bps year-to-date• GDP still contracting, unemployment on the rise (currently some 12%) and house

prices falling (-8% ytd); consequently, credit quality to deteriorate further• Though conditions are worsening, 86% of portfolio still considered to be low or

medium risk and after loan impairment of 62m, Irish business still contributed 42m to group profit (ytd)

Irish loan book – key figures for 2Q 2009 Proportion of high risk and NPL

0,5%2,1%

4,6%

0,6% 1,5%

5,6%

10%

4Q 08

6%

2%0%

1Q 09 2Q 092Q 081Q 08

4,7%

6,9%

2,7%

8,1%

3Q 08

Non-performingHigh risk

2,9%4%3,8%

8%

7.4%26.1%

1.2bn0.6bn

Real estate investmentReal estate development

4.8%10.2bnOwner-occupied mortgages

6.3%3.4bnBuy-to-let mortgages

3.8%2.9bnSMEs /corporate entities

5.6%18.3bn

NPL 1H09OutstandingLoan portfolio

Page 16: Investor presentation 2009 - KBC.com · This presentation is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security

16

7 bn EUR capital securities subscribed to by the Belgian Federal State and the Belgian Flemish Region

Summary of government transactions (1)

3.5bn3.5bnAmountFlemish RegionBelgian State

Conditional on payment of dividend to shareholders.The higher of (i) 8.5% or (ii) 120% of the dividend for 2009 and 125% for 2010 onwards

Not tax deductible

Interest coupon29.5 EURIssue Price

KBC Group NVProceeds used to subscribe to ordinary share capital at KBC Bank (5.5bn)

and KBC Insurance (1.5bn)

IssuerEqual ranking (pari passu) with ordinary stock upon liquidationRanking

No conversion option

Perpetual fully paid-up new class of non-transferable securities qualifying as core capitalInstrument

Option for KBC to buy back the securities at 150% of the issue price (44.25)Buyback option for KBC

From December 2011 onwards, KBC has option to convert securities into shares (1 for 1). In that case, the State can ask for cash at 115% (33.93) increasing every year by 5% to the maximum of 150%

Conversion option for KBC

Page 17: Investor presentation 2009 - KBC.com · This presentation is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security

17

Summary of government transactions (2)

• State guarantee for 20 bn CDO-linked instruments:

CDO investments not yet written down to zero (5.5 bn)

CDO-linked exposure towards MBIA, the US monoline insurer (14.4 bn)

• First and second layer (5.2 bn): loss fully borne by KBC (KBC has option to call on equity capital increase up to 1.8 bn from the Belgian State if losses exceed 3.2bn)

• Third layer (14.8 bn): 10% risk only

• Instrument-by-instrument approach

GUARANTEE STRUCTURE

1st and 2nd loss: 5.2bn Entirely borne by P&L KBC

Option for KBC to call on equity capital increase by State up to 1.8bn if losses exceed 3.2bn

20bn

14.8bn

3rd layer

90% loss compensated 10% KBCby State in cash guarantee

16bnMTM-level 2Q 09

Page 18: Investor presentation 2009 - KBC.com · This presentation is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security

18

KBC hybrid debt instruments

No call date19-Dec-096.202%525m GBPKBC BankBE0119284710

No call10-Nov-098.22%300m EURKBC Bank Funding Trust IVUSU2445TAA08

No call02-Nov-099.86%600m USDKBC Bank Funding Trust IIIUS48239AAA79

No call31-Dec-093m EURIBOR +3%280m EURKBC Bank Funding Trust IIXS0099124793

No call30-Sep-093m EURIBOR +3%280m EURKBC Bank Funding Trust IIXS0099124793

Call Option2H 2009

Coupon/Call date 2H 2009Coupon AmountIssuerISIN

No call dateNo coupon date8.00%700m EURKBC BankXS0368735154

No call dateNo coupon date8.00%1.25bn EURKBC BankBE0934378747

Hybrid instruments without 2H 2009 event

Page 19: Investor presentation 2009 - KBC.com · This presentation is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security

19

Strategy review

Dec2009

Jun2009

Jul2009

Aug2009

Sept2009

Oct2009

Nov2009

Dec2009

Dec 2008Strategic review

announced;35 bn of RWA earmarked for

reduction

Jun 2009Provisional approval

from EU Commission;new management team

appointed End SeptKBC to submit detailed

business plan

End DecAnticipated final EU

Commission decision

4 DecKBC Investor Day(to be confirmed)KBC to prepare detailed

strategy review and business plan

Aiming for approvalfrom Brussels

Page 20: Investor presentation 2009 - KBC.com · This presentation is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security

20