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Non-FDIC Insured ● May Lose Value ● No Bank Guarantee Investment Outlook Q3 2020 ACI – 1807451

Investment Outlook...China’s Woes Deepen Although a dovish Fed remains supportive of EM growth, it may not be enough to calm the many headwinds pressuring developing economies. GDP

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Page 1: Investment Outlook...China’s Woes Deepen Although a dovish Fed remains supportive of EM growth, it may not be enough to calm the many headwinds pressuring developing economies. GDP

Non-FDIC Insured ● May Lose Value ● No Bank Guarantee

Investment OutlookQ3 2020

ACI – 1807451

Page 2: Investment Outlook...China’s Woes Deepen Although a dovish Fed remains supportive of EM growth, it may not be enough to calm the many headwinds pressuring developing economies. GDP

Contents

2

Review Quarterly Market Recap 3

Global Macroeconomic Outlook

Snapshot 5

Global Economy 6

Inflation 7

Monetary Policy 8

Interest Rates 9

Investment Outlook

Global Equity 10

U.S. Fixed Income 11

Global Fixed Income 12

Multi-Asset Strategies 13

Glossary 14

Page 3: Investment Outlook...China’s Woes Deepen Although a dovish Fed remains supportive of EM growth, it may not be enough to calm the many headwinds pressuring developing economies. GDP

Quarterly Market RecapAs of 6/30/2020

3

Indexes

Equity Current Low High Quarter YTD 1 Year

S&P 500 3,100 2,237 3,386 20.54 -3.08 7.51

DJIA 25,813 18,592 29,551 18.51 -8.43 -0.54

MSCI EAFE 1,050 842 1,219 14.88 -11.34 -5.13

MSCI Europe 1,469 1,154 1,740 15.26 -12.78 -6.78

MSCI Japan 944 754 1,052 11.61 -7.12 3.10

MSCI Emerging Markets 57,480 44,713 63,411 18.08 -9.78 -3.39

Specialty Current Low High Quarter YTD 1 Year

S&P Goldman Sachs Com 325 228 445 10.47 -36.31 -33.90

FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global 1,776 1,423 2,456 9.93 -21.45 -16.22

U.S. Dollar Index 97 95 103 -1.67 1.04 1.31

Range

Current and 52-Week Range Returns (%)

Range

Data for the one-year period ending 6/30/2020. Source: FactSet.Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Commodities are raw materials or agricultural products that can be bought or sold on an exchange or market. See glossary for definitions.

Global EquitySummaryGlobal stocks rebounded from March’s sharp decline as investors revised their worst-case fears about COVID-19 and many countries began to reopen their economies.

U.S. Equity§ The S&P 500 Index delivered its strongest quarterly return since

1998, as massive fiscal and monetary stimulus helped restore investor confidence.

§ All stock style and size categories delivered robust returns. Small-caps outperformed large caps, and growth outperformed value.

Non-U.S. Equity§ Non-U.S. stocks bounced back with double-digit gains but lagged

the U.S.

§ Stocks in Europe advanced as declining coronavirus infection rates encouraged investors to look beyond near-term economic weakness. Manufacturing data improved but continued to signal a recession.

§ Japan’s stock market posted gains as the government lifted stay-at-home orders for most of the country in May. Economic data pointed to a continued recession.

§ Emerging markets (EM) rose sharply. Hopes for a global economic recovery, along with improving oil prices and continued central bank support, buoyed EM investors.$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

Spot 10-Yr Avg

Oil (Brent Crude) (USD)

$1,100$1,250$1,400$1,550$1,700$1,850

Spot 10-Yr Avg

Gold (USD)

51525354555

Spot 10-Yr Avg

VIX (Index)

Page 4: Investment Outlook...China’s Woes Deepen Although a dovish Fed remains supportive of EM growth, it may not be enough to calm the many headwinds pressuring developing economies. GDP

Quarterly Market RecapAs of 6/30/2020

4

Indexes

Fixed Income Current Low High Qtr YTD 1 Year

BB U.S. Aggregate 110.44 104.18 111.53 2.90 6.14 8.74

BB U.S. Inv Grade Corp 113.25 96.74 114.98 8.98 5.02 9.50

BB U.S. High Yield Corp 95.89 79.13 101.63 10.18 -3.80 0.03

BB U.S. TIPS 111.20 100.01 111.32 4.24 6.01 8.28

BB U.S. Municipal 112.74 102.46 115.44 2.72 2.08 4.45

BB Glob Agg Unhedged 111.19 106.96 113.13 3.32 2.98 4.22

BB Global Tsy ex-U.S. (UH) 114.47 112.58 118.17 2.39 0.82 0.87

JPMorgan CEMBI Broad Div 100.78 88.64 104.86 11.15 -0.16 3.74

JPMorgan EMBI Global Div 919.34 766.57 970.92 12.26 -2.76 0.49

JPMorgan GBI-EM Global Div 415.81 378.37 415.81 9.82 -6.89 -2.82

BB=Bloomberg Barclay s; UH=Unhedged

Current and 52-Week Range Returns (%)

Range

Data for the one-year period ending 6/30/2020. Source: FactSet.Spot price is the current market price at which an asset is bought or sold for immediate payment or delivery.Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See glossary for definitions.

£0.6

£0.7

£0.8

£0.9

£1.0

Spot 10-Yr Avg

GBP/USD

Global Fixed IncomeU.S. Bonds§ The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index rose, driven

primarily by strong gains in corporate investment-grade and high-yield bonds. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) generated more modest returns.

§ Treasury yields stabilized on expectations that increased supply to fund government stimulus would balance strong demand.

§ Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) rallied and outperformed nominal Treasuries, as longer-term inflation expectations continued to rebound off March lows.

§ Municipal bonds continued to recover from the late-March sell-off, outperforming Treasuries amid favorable supply/demand data and Federal Reserve (Fed) support.

Global Bonds§ The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index advanced,

outperforming the U.S. index. Government bond yields edged lower in most countries due to recession fears and central bank stimulus.

§ European government bond yields fell as policymakers revised down their forecasts for European economic growth. Manufacturing data improved but continued to signal recession.

§ Longer-maturity U.K. bond yields declined on a weak economic outlook. The U.K. has been slower to reopen but recent data has pointed to a stabilizing economy.

§ Investor demand for yield, central bank support and the reopening of many economies aided fixed-income performance in emerging markets. A weaker U.S. dollar boosted performance for local bonds.

€ 0.6

€ 0.7

€ 0.8

€ 0.9

€ 1.0

6/20193/2020

5/20206/2020

Spot 10-Yr Avg

EUR/USD

¥90

¥100

¥110

6/20193/2020

5/20206/2020

Spot 10-Yr Avg

JPY/USD

Page 5: Investment Outlook...China’s Woes Deepen Although a dovish Fed remains supportive of EM growth, it may not be enough to calm the many headwinds pressuring developing economies. GDP

Global Economy

§ Shutdowns Hit U.S. Economy Hard

§ Europe Faces Deep Recession

§ China’s Economy Sinks for First Time on Record

Inflation

§ U.S. Inflation Plunges

§ European Inflation Flattens

§ Inflation Remains Low in Most Emerging Markets

Monetary Policy

§ Fed Takes Drastic Steps

§ European Policymakers Expand Efforts

§ China Takes Wait-and-See Approach

Interest Rates

§ U.S. Treasury Yields Low but in Demand

§ European Rates Still Negative

§ EM Yields Remain Higher

Global Macroeconomic Outlook

5

Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and along with other portfolio data, are subject to change without notice.Source: American Century Investments. See glossary for definitions.

Page 6: Investment Outlook...China’s Woes Deepen Although a dovish Fed remains supportive of EM growth, it may not be enough to calm the many headwinds pressuring developing economies. GDP

Global EconomyEconomies contract in pandemic’s wake

6

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

Real

Yea

r-O

ver-

Year

Per

cent

Cha

nge

(%)

Global GDP

United States Eurozone Japan China

Data from 3/31/2013 to 3/31/2020. Source: BloombergGross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of the total economic output in goods and services for an economy.

OutlookShutdowns Hit U.S. Economy Hard

After declining 5% in the first quarter, we expect the second-quarter contraction in U.S. economic growth to be significantly worse, reflecting the deep effects of pandemic-driven shutdowns and stay-at-home orders. Elevated corporate debt levels, supply chain disruptions, high unemployment, weak demand and recent social unrest likely will prolong the recession. We believe the economy will begin to improve in the second half of the year, but the recovery process will be slow and extended.

Europe Faces Deep Recession

We believe the eurozone’s economic contraction likely bottomed in May, but like the U.S., we expect the recession to be deep and lengthy. In response, the European Union announced a massive recovery plan consisting of loans and grants for pandemic-related relief. The U.K. economy fared relatively better in the first quarter, but policymakers are bracing for a record-breaking downturn in the second quarter.

China’s Economy Sinks for First Time on Record

Gross domestic product (GDP) in China declined nearly 7% in the first quarter, the first contraction since authorities began recording data in 1992. While the politburo insists economic fundamentals remain unchanged, mounting job losses, weak global demand and heightened trade tensions with the U.S. are creating strong economic headwinds. Additionally, rising COVID-19 infection rates in certain EM countries will create challenges to growth.

Page 7: Investment Outlook...China’s Woes Deepen Although a dovish Fed remains supportive of EM growth, it may not be enough to calm the many headwinds pressuring developing economies. GDP

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

YoY

Cha

nge

(%)

Global Consumer Price Indices

U.S. U.K. Germany Japan

Data from 4/30/2009 to 5/31/2020Source: Bloomberg

InflationGlobal inflation weakens

7

OutlookU.S. Inflation Plunges

Annual headline inflation recently dropped to 0.1%, its lowest level since September 2015, due to falling gasoline prices and coronavirus-related lockdowns. Longer-term, market-based inflation expectations also are well below average. Given the headwinds to growth, we expect these trends to continue in the near term. However, we believe market indicators don’t reflect the effects of massive federal debt, a weaker U.S. dollar and onshoring trends among U.S. businesses, which should push inflation higher in the intermediate term.

European Inflation Flattens

Annual inflation in the eurozone recently dropped to 0.1%, a four-year low, on falling energy and food prices. Meanwhile, falling housing and utilities costs drove U.K. inflation to its lowest level in nearly four years. We expect lingering effects from COVID-19’s economic fallout to keep inflation well below central bank targets in developed markets.

Inflation Remains Low in Most Emerging Markets

Inflation remains low and below central bank targets in most EM countries. Turkey remains a notable exception due to currency devaluation. In China, the COVID-19 crisis recently pushed inflation to a 14-month low. We believe a muted global recovery will keep inflation near or below EM central bank targets.

0.5 0.6

0.1

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures change in price paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and services.PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures are based on a survey of businesses and intended to capture the price changes in all final goods, no matter the purchaser.

0.1

Page 8: Investment Outlook...China’s Woes Deepen Although a dovish Fed remains supportive of EM growth, it may not be enough to calm the many headwinds pressuring developing economies. GDP

Monetary PolicyStimulus Soars

8

OutlookFed Takes Drastic Steps

The Fed’s series of bold measures have helped stabilize markets. The U.S. central bank quickly slashed interest rates to near 0% in early March, and it recently committed to holding rates steady until 2022. The Fed is also maintaining its unprecedented lending and securities-buying programs to aid the recovery. We expect the Fed to maintain a “whatever it takes” approach until the economy is clearly on the mend.

European Policymakers Expand Efforts

Central banks in Europe and the U.K. expanded their stimulus efforts to combat pandemic-related financial challenges. The European Central Bank increased its bond buying by 600 billion euros in June but left its key lending rate at 0%. The Bank of England cut its key lending rate to a record low 0.1% in response to the coronavirus outbreak. We expect both central banks to use all policy tools available to help restore economic stability.

China Takes Wait-and-See Approach

After cutting its benchmark lending rate twice in early 2020, the People’s Bank of China paused, waiting to see how economic data respond to the reopening of China’s economy. Nevertheless, we believe policymakers may have to launch more aggressive stimulus measures to combat economic challenges in the wake of the coronavirus crisis.

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Data from 3/31/2014 to 6/30/2020. RHS shows China rates. Rates shown are the upper-bound of the central banks' policy rates.Source: FactSet

Central Bank Policy Rates

People's Bank of China (RHS)U.S. Federal Reserve (LHS)

European Central Bank (LHS)Bank of Japan (LHS)

Bank of England (LHS)

Page 9: Investment Outlook...China’s Woes Deepen Although a dovish Fed remains supportive of EM growth, it may not be enough to calm the many headwinds pressuring developing economies. GDP

Interest RatesRates remain lower for longer

9

Yield is a rate of return for bonds and other fixed-income securities. Yield curve is a line graph that shows yields of fixed-income securities from a single sector but from a range of different maturities at a single point in time.

OutlookU.S. Treasury Yields Low but in Demand

Ongoing economic weakness and muted inflation, along with a dovish Fed, likely will keep the 10-year Treasury yield near record lows for an extended period. But, even at their current levels, Treasury yields are notably higher than government bond yields in other developed markets. This factor should continue to drive global demand, contributing to lower yields and higher prices.

European Rates Still Negative

Most European government bond yields remain in negative territory, due to economic weakness and central bank stimulus. U.K. rates remain modestly higher and positive, while rates in Japan remain negative amid ongoing central bank stimulus. We expect rates in developed markets to remain unusually low through 2020.

EM Yields Remain Higher

Despite central bank stimulus measures in many EM countries, government bond yields are generally higher than in developed markets. We believe this dynamic provides opportunities in EM countries where rates are higher and more likely to fall or remain stable, including Mexico, Peru and Indonesia.

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Yiel

d (%

)

U.S.E.U.JapanU.K.

Global Yield Curves (%)

Data as of 6/30/2020Source: Bloomberg

3M 6M 1Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Yiel

d (%

)

6/30/20203/31/202012/31/2019

3M 6M 1Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y

U.S. Treasury Yield Curve (%)

Page 10: Investment Outlook...China’s Woes Deepen Although a dovish Fed remains supportive of EM growth, it may not be enough to calm the many headwinds pressuring developing economies. GDP

Global Equity OutlookStocks have proven resilient, but we recommend caution in an unsettled environment.

10

Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and along with other portfolio data, are subject to change without notice.Source: American Century Investments.

U.S. | Data doesn’t support market expectations for a sharp earnings recovery.• The disconnect between stock prices and

fundamentals could be setting up the market for volatility if earnings and economic data don’t catch up.

Emerging Markets | Maintaining a focus on companies exposed to stay-at-home trends and local consumers.• Even though some emerging markets may lag

developed markets in returning to more normal economic and consumer activity levels, we believe the long-term case remains intact.

Developed Non-U.S. Markets | The pandemic is changing the way the world thinks about work and play.• We believe companies whose products or services make it easier to

work, shop, learn, eat and play at home will have advantages over traditional offerings for some time.

Page 11: Investment Outlook...China’s Woes Deepen Although a dovish Fed remains supportive of EM growth, it may not be enough to calm the many headwinds pressuring developing economies. GDP

Sector LOW HIGH

U.S. Investment Grade Corporates 150

U.S. High Yield Corporates 626

U.S. Securitized 75

Sector LOW HIGH

U.S. TIPS 134

Sector LOW HIGH

U.S. Municipals (10-Yr Ratio) 130

Spreads vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury (in bps)Trailing 5-Year Range

CURRENT

373

1100

135

220

365

85

303

15

55

72

10-Year U.S. Breakeven Inflation Rate (in bps)Trailing 5-Year Range

CURRENT

Yield Ratio to 10-Year U.S. Treasury (in bps)Trailing 5-Year Range

CURRENT

Data from 6/30/2015 to 6/30/2020Source: Bloomberg, FactSet

U.S. Fixed Income Outlook

11

OutlookU.S. Investment-Grade Corporates

We remain defensively positioned within the sector, given the challenging economic and earnings backdrops and potential for downgrades. In addition to focusing on high-quality corporate bonds, we’re looking for opportunities created by market dislocations.

U.S. High-Yield Corporates

We’re remaining cautious and selective in our positioning and mindful of economic headwinds. We expect continued near-term pressure on credit spreads from growing defaults, downgrades and bankruptcies.

U.S. Securitized

High unemployment and the economic effects of pandemic-driven shutdowns have created challenges for certain segments of the mortgage market. We remain cautious toward credit-sensitive securities and are focusing on high-quality MBS and asset-backed bonds.

U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)

We expect year-over-year headline and core inflation to remain weak in the near term. However, we expect the massive increase in U.S. debt, a weaker U.S. dollar and onshoring trends among U.S. businesses to push inflation higher in the intermediate term.

U.S. Municipals

The market’s pandemic-related sell-off led to unprecedented dislocations in the muni market. We believe most state and local governments have the financial resources to withstand the current recession.

Spreads

Sectors represented as follows. Investment-Grade Corporates: Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Corporate Index; U.S. High-Yield Corporates: Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High-Yield Bond Index; U.S. Securitized: Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Securitized Bond Index; U.S. Municipals: Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index; U.S. TIPS: Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Index. See glossary for definitions.

Spreads are measured differences or gaps that exist between two interest rates or yields that are being compared with each other. Breakeven inflation rate is the difference between the nominal yield on a fixed-income investment and the real yield on an inflation-linked investment of similar maturity and credit quality. A municipal yield ratio is the ratio of theyield of a municipal security of a certain maturity divided by the yield of a U.S. Treasury security of the same maturity.

Page 12: Investment Outlook...China’s Woes Deepen Although a dovish Fed remains supportive of EM growth, it may not be enough to calm the many headwinds pressuring developing economies. GDP

Global Fixed Income Outlook

12

OutlookEuropean Sovereign

Our outlook for European sovereigns has improved due to the European Union’s (EU’s) proposed landmark economic recovery fund (750 billion euros or $820 billion). The plan, dubbed “Next Generation EU,” consists of corporate grants and loans financed with unprecedented EU-issued debt backed by member countries’ commitments to the EU budget. If the plan is approved, the EU will issue common debt for the first time in history. Countries hardest hit by the pandemic will receive the most aid, including Italy, Spain and Greece. We don’t expect huge revisions in scale and scope as member nations debate the plan, but we believe the final version may include conditions to the grant and loan components.

European Credit

Credit markets have rallied from the lows of late March, driven by global central bank support, receding concerns about virus containment, and the resumption of economic activity in several countries. Nevertheless, we believe this recovery in credit spreads is overdone. We expect a more enduring negative impact on the economy until 2022. We also believe weakened financial metrics will pressure spreads through the second-quarter earnings-announcement season.

EM Debt

EM debt faces the near-term benefits of unprecedented liquidity and prospects for economies reopening in upcoming months. At the same time, debt fundamentals have deteriorated significantly, with countries facing low growth and high public debt for years to come.

Yields and Spreads

Sectors represented as follows. Investment-Grade Corporates: Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Corporate Index; U.S. High-Yield Corporates: Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High-Yield Bond Index; U.S. Securitized: Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Securitized Bond Index; U.S. Municipals: Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index; U.S. TIPS: Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Index. See glossary for definitions.

Spreads are measured differences or gaps that exist between two interest rates or yields that are being compared with each other. Breakeven inflation rate is the difference between the nominal yield on a fixed-income investment and the real yield on an inflation-linked investment of similar maturity and credit quality. A municipal yield ratio is the ratio of theyield of a municipal security of a certain maturity divided by the yield of a U.S. Treasury security of the same maturity.

Source: Bloomberg, FactSet.

Change AverageTreasury Yields (bps) 1 Mo. 3 Mos. 1 Yr 5 Yr 10 YrU.S. 15 -1 -10 -161 148 15E.U. -70 -3 1 6 -61 -70Japan -15 2 0 8 -16 -15U.K. -9 -4 -21 -70 45 -9U.S. 66 0 -1 -135 217 66E.U. -46 -1 2 -13 17 -46Japan 2 2 1 18 3 2U.K. 17 -1 -18 -66 117 172's - 10's Spread 51 2 9 26 68 5110 Year TIPS -71 -20 -45 -101 42 -7110 Year Breakeven Infl Rate 134 20 41 -36 175 134Credit Spreads (bps)US Investment Grade 142 -22 -113 33 124 142US High Yield 626 -11 -254 249 452 626Euro Investment Grade 148 -19 -90 35 120 148EMD Sovereign ($) 243 -11 -99 61 212 243EMD Corporate ($) 440 -39 -154 109 349 440Municipal Data10-Yr Muni/Treasury Ratio (% ) 130 5 -85 49 93 13030-Yr Muni/Treasury Ratio (% ) 121 -3 -37 26 102 121AAA vs BAA Spread (bps) 210 -59 14 112 131 210

2-Ye

ar10-Year

Latest Mo. End

Page 13: Investment Outlook...China’s Woes Deepen Although a dovish Fed remains supportive of EM growth, it may not be enough to calm the many headwinds pressuring developing economies. GDP

Asset Class The biggest change in our model is an increasingly negative view of bonds. With interest rates so low by historical standards, bonds are less attractive relative to other asset classes. Stabilizing stock and commodity prices also reduce the perceived safe-haven appeal of bonds. Nevertheless, after stocks’ recent rally, it’s hard to argue for an overweight given the poor outlook for earnings and the economy.

Equity Region We continue to favor U.S. over non-U.S. equities but have cut our overweight in half. Stock momentum remains firmly in favor of U.S. equities, but many other fundamental and financial indicators have moderated or even favor non-U.S. stocks. Of course, the economic data have only begun to reflect the effects of the pandemic and measures taken to limit its spread. We will continue to monitor these developments closely.

Economic data are all over the map because of effects of the virus and efforts to combat it. Our data and valuations favor EM equities, while momentum clearly favors the U.S. Given that split, we’re neutral while we work to discern a clearer and more stable trend.

U.S. Equity Size & Style We returned to neutral after a period favoring small-cap stocks. The impetus for the change was largely a result of the sharp increase in the P/E ratio for small stocks, meaning they became much more expensive. P/E ratios for large-cap stocks have also increased in the wake of the economic downturn, but by a much smaller margin.

Amid the economic turmoil, growth stocks’ appeal increased relative to value. Both our measures of market sentiment and the models’ economic components tilted in favor of growth.

Fixed Income Fed support and high average credit quality make U.S. securitized bonds attractive. We remain cautious on U.S. corporate-backed securities given questions about volatility and valuations; nevertheless, we prefer U.S. credit to European credit. Poor growth and yields make these bonds less appealing.

Alternatives Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are very attractive relative to bonds amid Fed rate cuts and record-low cash and Treasury yields. REITs also offer compelling valuations after a stretch of underperformance, while their yields compare well with the dividend yield available on equities.

Multi-Asset Strategies Outlook

13

Page 14: Investment Outlook...China’s Woes Deepen Although a dovish Fed remains supportive of EM growth, it may not be enough to calm the many headwinds pressuring developing economies. GDP

Glossary

14

Slide 3 | Quarterly Market Recap: Global EquityChicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) VIX Index tracks the expected 30-day future volatility of the S&P 500 Index and is a widely used measure of market volatility and risk. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is made up of 30 blue chip stocks that trade daily on the New York Stock Exchange.FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Index tracks the performance of listed real estate companies and REITs in both developed and emerging markets.Gold spot price is the price of an ounce of gold, denominated in U.S. dollars.MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index is a widely followed group of stocks from 20 developed market countries. MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets.MSCI Europe Index is designed to measure equity market performance in Europe.MSCI Japan Index is designed to measure equity market performance in Japan.Oil (Brent Crude) is type of sweet crude oil that is used as a major benchmark price for purchases of oil worldwide.S&P 500® Index is composed of 500 selected common stocks, most of which are listed on the New York Stock Exchange. S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is a composite index of commodity sector returns representing an unleveraged, long-only investment in commodity futures that is broadly diversified across the spectrum of commodities. U.S. Dollar Index is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies.

Sources: Standard & Poor’s, MSCI, FTSE International Limited.

©2019 Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved. For intended recipient only. No further distribution and/or reproduction permitted. Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC ("S & P") does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, completeness or availability of any data or information contained herein and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such data or information. S&P GIVES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE IN CONNECTION TO THE DATA OR INFORMATION INCLUDED HEREIN. In no event shall S&P be liable for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages in connection with recipients’ use of such data or information.

MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used to create indices or financial products. This report is not approved or produced by MSCI.

FTSE International Limited ("FTSE") © FTSE [2019]. FTSE® is a trade mark of London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE's express written consent.

Page 15: Investment Outlook...China’s Woes Deepen Although a dovish Fed remains supportive of EM growth, it may not be enough to calm the many headwinds pressuring developing economies. GDP

Glossary

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Slide 4 | Quarterly Market Recap: Global Fixed IncomeBloomberg Barclays (BB) Global Aggregate Index (unhedged) is a broad-based measure of the global investment-grade fixed income markets and includes the U.S. Aggregate, Pan-European Aggregate, and Asian-Pacific Aggregate indices. The index also includes Eurodollar and Euro-Yen corporate bonds, Canadian government, agency and corporate securities, and USD investment grade 144A securities.Bloomberg Barclays (BB) Global Treasury Bond Index (unhedged) is composed of those securities included in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index that are Treasury securities, with the U.S. excluded.Bloomberg Barclays (BB) Municipal Bond Index is a rules-based, market-value-weighted index engineered for the tax-exempt bond market.Bloomberg Barclays (BB) U.S. Aggregate Bond Index represents securities that are taxable, registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and U.S. dollar-denominated. The index covers the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, with index components for government and corporate securities, mortgage pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities.Bloomberg Barclays (BB) U.S. Corporate High-Yield Bond Index is an unmanaged index that covers the USD-denominated, non-investment-grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market.Bloomberg Barclays (BB) U.S. Corporate Investment-Grade Bond Index consists of publicly issued U.S. corporate and specified foreign debentures that are registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and meet specific maturity, liquidity and quality requirements.Bloomberg Barclays (BB) U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) Index consists of TIPS with a remaining maturity of one year or more.Corporate bonds are a type of debt instrument issued by corporations, as distinct from those issued by governments, government agencies or municipalities. Corporate securities typically have the following features: 1) they are taxable 2) they tend to have more credit (default) risk than government or municipal securities, so they tend to have higher yields than comparable-maturity securities in those sectors; and 3) they are traded on major exchanges, with prices published in newspapers.J.P. Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Index is a global, liquid corporate emerging markets benchmark that tracks U.S.-denominated corporate bonds issued by EM entities.J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Index tracks U.S.-denominated sovereign bonds issued by emerging market countries.J.P Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Index measures the performance of fixed-rate, investment-grade local currency debt securities. Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are debt instruments that represent ownership in pools of mortgage loans and their payments.Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) are a special type of U.S. Treasury security that makes upward or downward changes to both principal and coupon interest rates based on inflation.Sources: Bloomberg Index Services, Inc. and J.P. Morgan.

Slide 9 | Interest RatesU.S. Treasuries are debt securities issued by the U.S. Treasury and backed by the direct "full faith and credit" pledge of the U.S. government. Treasury securities include bills (maturing in one year or less), notes (maturing in two to 10 years) and bonds (maturing in more than 10 years). They are generally considered among the highest quality and most liquid securities in the world.Yield is the rate of return on bonds and other fixed-income securities.Yield curve is a line graph showing the yields of fixed-income securities from a single sector (such as Treasuries or municipals), but from a range of different maturities (typically three months to 30 years), at a single point in time (often at month-, quarter- or year-end). Maturities are plotted on the x-axis of the graph, and yields are plotted on the y-axis. The resulting line is a key bond market benchmark and a leading economic indicator.

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Slides 11 and 12 | U.S. Fixed Income and Global Fixed Income OutlooksBloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Corporate Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of the U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market.Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High-Yield Bond Index is an unmanaged index that covers the USD-denominated, non-investment-grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market.Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Securitized Bond Index is an unmanaged index of asset-backed securities, collateralized mortgage-backed securities, and fixed-rate mortgage-backed securities.Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index is a market value-weighted index designed for the tax-exempt bond market.Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) Index consists of TIPS with a remaining maturity of one year or more.Breakeven inflation rate is the difference between the nominal yield on a fixed-income investment and the real yield on an inflation-linked investment of similar maturity and credit quality.Credit ratings indicate the credit worthiness of the underlying bonds in the portfolio and generally range from AAA (highest) to D (lowest).Duration is measure of the price sensitivity of a fixed income investment to changes in interest rates. The longer the duration, the more a fixed income investment’s price will change when interest rates change. The shorter the duration, the less a fixed income investment’s price will change when interest rates change.Floating rate bonds are bonds that are typically backed by pools of corporate loans and their payments. They pay an adjustable rate of interest tied to a representative interest rate such as the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR).Futures are contracts that agree to buy or sell a specific amount of a commodity or financial security at a particular price on a stipulated future date. Futures contracts are typically used as a hedging/risk management tool in portfolio management.High-yield bonds are fixed income securities with lower credit quality and lower credit ratings.Long position is what most people think of as "normal" ownership of an asset or investment, giving the owner the right to transfer ownership, the right to any income generated by the asset, and the right to any profits or losses due to value changes. Generally, investors take long positions under the assumption that the value of what they own will increase and/or generate a significant amount of income.Municipal yield ratio is used to determine the relative value of municipal securities compared with U.S. Treasury securities. The ratio consists of the yield of a municipal security of a certain maturity divided by the yield of a U.S. Treasury security of the same maturity.Short position refers to the sale of a security not owned by the seller (the seller borrows it for delivery at the time of the short sale). If the seller can buy the security or contract later (to return what was borrowed) at a lower price, a profit results. If the price rises, the borrower/seller suffers a loss. It’s a technique used to 1) take advantage of anticipated price declines or 2) to protect a profit in a long position (see long position).Spreads are measured differences or gaps that exist between two interest rates or yields that are being compared with each other. Spread compression or contraction refers to the narrowing of measured differences between two interest rates or yields.

Slide 13 | Multi-Asset Strategy OutlookReal estate investment trusts (REITs) are securities that trade like stocks and invest in real estate through properties or mortgages.Commodities are raw materials or primary agricultural products that can be bought or sold on an exchange or market. Examples include grains such as corn, foods such as coffee, and metals such as copper.

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Glossary

Page 17: Investment Outlook...China’s Woes Deepen Although a dovish Fed remains supportive of EM growth, it may not be enough to calm the many headwinds pressuring developing economies. GDP

American Century Investments

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