SUPPORTING STRATEGIC INVESTMENT CHOICES IN AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT AND ADOPTION

M A R K R O S E G R A N T

B E L I Y O U H A I L E

monitoring and evaluation

C A R L O A Z Z A R R I microeconomics, poverty

C E C I L E M A R T I G N A C participatory GIS, spatial analysis

C I N D Y C O X

technical writer, technology evaluation

C L E O R O B E R T S farming systems characterization

E L O D I E V A L E T T E

technology diffusion

I V Y R O M E R O administrative coordinator

J A W O O K O O

crop/technology modeling,

J E F F R E Y D I C K I N S O Nspatial analysis, microeconomics

M A R I A C O M A N E S C U web development, programming

M E L A N I E B A C O U

data analysis, microeconomics

S T E V E N K I B E T data collection and management

H O - Y O U N G K W O Ncrop and soil process modeling

U L R I K E W O O D - S I C H R A

data management, SPAM, DREAM

Z H E G U O GIS, market accessibility, RS

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FIVE GUIDING QUESTIONS

1. Where are the poor, and what are their welfare status?

2. On what farming systems do the poor most depend?

3. What are the constraints affecting the productivity and

market integration of those farming systems?

4. What present or prospective investments in technologies

and practices might best address those constraints?

5. What will be the benefits of investment on productivity,

income, and the reduction of poverty and hunger?

Production System

& Market Access AnalysisMESO SCALEPixels as Units of Analysis

Production System

Ecosystem Services

Infrastructure/Market Access

Investment/Policy AnalysisMACRO SCALEAggregate, market-scale (geo-political) units

Fixed Geographies of Analysis

e.g., IMPACT/WATER,GTAP derivatives

Flexible Geographies/Units of Analysis

e.g., DREAM,MM models

AggregationBy Commodity

Urban/Rural Consumption InputsProductionIncome tercileRegionHousehold CharacterizationMICRO SCALE

Change(e.g., policy)

Change(e.g., climate,technologies)

Bio-physical land use, soil,

climate, aez (IIASA, CRU, USGS)

ProductionSPAM

(admin records, suitability)

Socio-ecopop. poverty,

factor productivity(LSMS, ag. census,

DHS, FAO)

Marketsinfrastructure, transportation, market access

Data harmonization

Up/down scaling

Calibration

HarvestChoice CELL5M (400+ 10 km spatial layers)

Data API

MAPPR TABLR 3rd-party tools

Web Map Service (WMS)

BMGF Project

Mapping Tool

Africa RISING

FAOHarvestChoice

website

Try:harvestchoice.org/mapprharvestchoice.org/tablr

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HIGHLIGHTS

SUB-NATIONAL POVERTY MAPPINGUpdated version using 24 nationally representative

household surveys conducted in years circa-2005 (+-2

years) and based on the internationally comparable 2005

PPP. Data is being updated to use circa-2008.

SPAM 2005Updated version including 42 crops to values centered

around the year 2005, using more recent primary data

from national statistics offices, ministries of agriculture,

publications from other various organizations, and

targeted internet searches. Underlying model is being

developed as a customizable web application, in

collaboration with GEOSHARE.

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HIGHLIGHTS

COUNTRY SNAPSHOTSPresenting harmonized socio-economic data

(e.g., overview of agricultural characteristics,

such as production, sales, household and farm

structure, livestock, inputs, management

practices, and farm assets) in a standardized

format across five countries (Malawi,

Uganda, Tanzania, Ghana, and Ethiopia) using

cross-country databases of nationally-

representative household surveys and

agricultural censuses. Being developed as

non-technical products serving the scope of

providing basic socio-demographic and

agricultural statistics.

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HIGHLIGHTS

TECHNOLOGY EVALUATIONPotential impact of agricultural technology

adoption on productivity, globally simulated

for maize, rice, and wheat.

MODELING

CONSTRAINTSModel-estimated

rainfall variability

impacts on yield

variability, under

intensification

scenarios

LOW

INPUT

HIGH

INPUT

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HIGHLIGHTS

STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OF

POTENTIAL INTERVENTIONSSpatially-explicit modeling of multiple

management interventions in Gates focus

countries

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HIGHLIGHTS

TECHNOLOGY PLATFORM*Providing evidences for the New

Alliance partners and national

stakeholders to make informed

investment decisions for scaling-up

technology adoption

backend servicesprovided on the cloud

apps built on SDK(web/mobile)

EXISTING

DB MIGRATED

GEOSPATIAL

DATASETS

PARTNERS’

DATABASESFARA & SROs

SECURITY

USER

MANAGEMENTvia Grow Africa

RESOURCES ON

AGRICULTURALTECHNOLOGIES

NEWLY COLLECTED

DATASETS (M&E)

PARTNER-CONTRIBUTED

DATASETS

FORMS &

SURVEY

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HIGHLIGHTS VIRTUAL BACKEND INFRASTRUCTURE

for VIRTUAL INFORMATION

PLATFORM

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HIGHLIGHTS

PARTNERING WITH AGRA:

SCALING SEEDS AND

TECHNOLOGY PARTNERSHIP

1. Specifying and prioritizing and value-chains to focus; validating the selection of technologies to scale

2. Identifying the target areas to scale the technologies3. Estimating potential impacts of the technologies, in

terms of productivity and socio-economic aspects4. Assessing the need for complementary technology

investments to maximize the benefits from the technology

5. Help developing the M&E baseline through survey and/or existing databases

6. Evaluating the impact of subsidies on the attractiveness of identified technologies to the private sector

7. Monitoring and mapping the Partnership-invested activities of grantees and partners on the ground

8. Developing investment strategy to reduce the average distance from farmers to input agro-dealers

SPECIFIC RESEARCH AREAS WE AGREED TO SUPPORT:

H a rv es t C hoic e

GEOSPATIAL TOOLS TO SUPPORT TECHNOLOGY PLATFORM

1. Mapping CRPs

Updated activity database, covering all CRPs & technologies

Development of an online CRP Mapping and Analysis Platform

2. Mapping Technology Diffusion

Program a workshop on the Mapping of Technology Diffusion

Technical support to CORAF and ASARECA on the mapping of

technology diffusion

MANY research questions on the adoption/dis-

adoption/diffusion + geospatial analysis

3. SDG Indicators

Remote Sensing-derived, potential indicators for the

Sustainable Development Goals framework; Improving

underlying data layers, including SPAM with higher update

frequency

1. Further engagement with partners in Africa through the Technology

Platform initiatives and PIM activities. Continue developing the Platform

components for African partners Our impact pathway!

2. Supporting CGIAR CO’s Open Access Implementation: Spatial Data

Management & Standards, CRP Mapping, Common Vocabulary & Ontology

Interoperability!

3. More investment on baseline datasets (+ gender & nutrition), less on tools

4. Flagship publications: Productivity Constraint Analysis (with UMN), Africa

Agriculture R&D e-Atlas, Profitability & CBA Studies, Regional Trade

Resilience Study for ReSAKSS ATOR 2014

5. CGIAR-CSI: Monitoring geospatial diffusion of technologies with SROs

6. Intra-division collaboration with Global Futures & IMPACT

Contr ibut ion to Science Agenda

ONGOING/PLANN ED ACTIVITIES