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Investment ChartsWinter 2006
Economics 102Mr. Smitka
Mortgage Rates (30-yr bonds) & Housing Investment
Households normally need a downpayment to finance a house
In addition they borrowBanks however won’t lend 100%
A rule of thumb: 20% of gross income A rule of thumb: 80% of market value
Let’s see what sort of house you can buy...
Mortgages and Housing Affordability$833 monthly max
$4,167 20% of Gross$50,000 per year
$70,331 14% $ 88,000 $17,583$75,333 13% $ 94,000 $18,833$81,015 12% $101,000 $20,254 $87,505 11% $109,000 $21,876 $94,959 10% $119,000 $23,740 $103,568 9% $129,000 $25,892 $113,569 8% $142,000 $28,392 $125,256 7% $157,000 $31,314 $138,992 6% $174,000 $34,748 $155,234 5% $194,000 $38,809
amt of loan interest affordable required rate house downpayment
Interest rates & investment
At 5% you can buy a nice house, once you’ve saved for the downpayment
At 14% you may not be able to buy any house -- $70,000 homes may not exist
Housing investment is a big enough share of the economy to matter
Impact: Short vs Long Rates
Quantitative links (short <-->long) Long rates affect housing starts Business investment responds to short
(bank) and medium (bond) interest rates Exchange rates respond to international
differences in short rates
Business investment
Empirically, interest rate elasticity is lowKeynes had a better story: animal spirits
At times optimism prevails, indeed feeds upon itselfAlso accelerator: higher I boosts growth making
additional I look more attractiveRose bowl effect
If the home team makes it there, and then wins … or other imponderables that cannot be predicted in advance
Housing investment is centralInvestment (Growth, % per annum)
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Residential (households) Equipment and software (corporate)
Impact: Timing and Magnitude
Housing starts are hit quickly by higher rates, but it
takes months for on-going construction to slow.
Business investment responds only as new budgets
are implemented (6-12 months) and is much more
sensitive to expectations than to interest rates.
Exchange rates change, but trade flows shift only
with a 1-2 year lag.
Net Effect
Response to higher interest rates is
uncertain both
in magnitude
and
timing.