Investing in Bangsamoro for the development of Mindanao The 52nd Annual Meeting of the Philippine Economic Society 14 November 2014 Hotel Intercontinental

Investing in Bangsamoro for the

development of Mindanao

The 52nd Annual Meeting of the Philippine Economic Society14 November 2014

Hotel Intercontinental ManilaLegaspi Room

Investing in Bangsamoro for the development of Mindanao

MARITES DANGUILAN VITUGSession Chair

Editor at Large, Rappler


MARIA LOURDES DAMASO LIM Main Presenter

Regional Director, NEDA Regional Office XI

Development Opportunities of Mindanao Regions Development Opportunities of Mindanao Regions in a Post-Comprehensive Agreement on the in a Post-Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) ScenarioBangsamoro (CAB) Scenario14 November2014Philippine Economic Society (PES) 52nd Annual MeetingForging Ahead: The Philippines as DevelopedEconomy by 2050Intercontinental Hotel, Makati City

MINDANAO

DIRECTOR MARIA LOURDES D. LIM, CESO IIRegional Director, NEDA Regional Office XI

Davao Region, Philippines and Head Secretariat, NEDA Board-Regional Development Committee Mindanao

Category 1: Provinces with High Magnitude of Poor Households

Category 2: Provinces with Highest Poverty Incidence Based on Population

Category 3: Thirty Provinces Exposed to Multiple Hazards

Spatial Consideration for Inclusive Development

Source: Philippine Development Plan Midterm Update, 2011-2016

Selected Macroeconomic Indicators, Mindanao Regions vis-a-vis National Figures 2013

GDP/GRDP(in constant 2000 prices)

( in thousand pesos)

2010-2013 GDP/GRDP

AAGR (%)

2013 Per Capita

GDP/GRDP (in constant 2000

prices) (in pesos)

2012 Poverty

Incidence among

Families (%)

2000-2013 Average

Employment Rate (%)

2000-2013 Average Under-

employment Rate (%)

National Road Density (km

/sq. km) (As of October

2012)

Philippines 6,765,458,577 5.9 68,897 19.7 91.3 19.2 0.092

NCR 2,455,306,204 6.4 195,806 2.6 85.9 12.5 1.810

Luzon 2,491,009,666 5.3 57,428 17.5 92.3 19.1 0.094

Visayas 850,371,452 5.8 44,972 28.6 92.2 21.4 0.128

Mindanao 968,771,253 6.2 41,450 34.8 93.9 22.4 0.066

Zamboanga Peninsula

137,949,751 5.6 38,064 33.7 95.0 22.3 0.085

Northern Mindanao

252,645,030 6.2 55,060 32.8 94.0 30.0 0.093

Davao Region

258,485,862 6.0 54,359 25.0 92.5 21.3 0.082

SOCCSKSARGEN

186,407,600 7.2 41,996 37.1 93.5 23.8 0.068

Caraga 83,550,716 9.0 32,752 31.9 92.9 24.1 0.069

ARMM 49,732,294 1.5 14,566 48.7 95.6 13.0 0.030

Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

End-of-Plan (2016) Targets of Mindanao Regions

Indicator ZamPen NorMin Davao Region SOCCSKSARGEN CARAGA ARMM

GRDP Targets

5.5- 7.5% 8.5%- 9.5% 8.7% 9.1- 10.1% 9.9- 10.8% 5.0%

Poverty Incidence (Families)

25- 30%20.7%

(MDG target for 2015)

22.3%20.4%

(MDG target for 2015)

18.8% (MDG target for 2015); 22.75% (RDP target 2016)*

40%

Employment Rate

No target rate 96% 96.2% 97% No target rate 97.58%

2015 Investment Reqts.

P 13.71 B** P90.05 B P33.95 B P50.4 B P25.63 B P41.68 B

2016 Investment Reqts.

P17.74 B** P162.41 B P31.13 B P31.76 B P26.83 B P55.33 B

2015 NEP P52.48 B P61.86 B P54.23 B P52.72 B P42.22 B P49.95 B

Source: Updated Regional Development Plan and Result Matrices and Reg’l Development Investment Program 2014-2016(Regions IX, X, XI, XII, XIII, ARMM); DBM 2015 National Expenditure Program •- Source: ZamPen RDIP, 2011-2016

* - Source: Caraga RDP, 2011-2016

Investment/Budget Priorities at the National, Mindanao, Regional and Bangsamoro levels should be outcomes-based as defined in the development plans at all levels.

PROPOSED NETWORK OF GROWTH CENTERS, Mindanao, 2015-2045

Growth targets of the Bangsamoro

Source: BDP,2015-2022

Development Themes and Financing Requirements

Economy and Livelihood

Infrastructure

Social Services

Environment and Natural Resources

Culture and Identity & Governance and Justice

Security and Normalization

P225 Billion for 2014-2016

“transition from conflict to peace in an affected country through the rebuilding of the socioeconomic framework of the society.”

1.1. Socio-economicSocio-economic

2.2. Good GovernanceGood Governance

3.3. InstitutionalInstitutional

Post-Conflict Development of the Bangsamoro

Elements of post-conflict recoveryElements of post-conflict recovery

“transition from conflict to peace in an affected country through the rebuilding of the socioeconomic framework of the society.”

1.1. Socio-economicSocio-economic

2.2. Good Governance Good Governance

3.3. InstitutionalInstitutional

4.4. Geographic/SpatialGeographic/Spatial

5.5. Security/ Security/ NormalizationNormalization

Post-Conflict Development of the Bangsamoro

Elements of post-conflict recoveryElements of post-conflict recovery

Financing Financing post-post-conflict conflict developmedevelopmentnt•Taxes, fees and charges•Annual Block Grants•Loans, grants, ODA•Economic Agreements•Revenue shares in natural resources•GOCCs & GFIs

Potential Impacts of the Bangsamoro on Mindanao Regions

• Bangsamoro growth at 6-8 percent in 2016;

• Regional economic growth improves to double digits;

• Economic spillover to Mindanao Regions.

Growth and Investment Drivers

• Agriculture, Fishery, & Forestry Industry

• Micro , Small and Medium Enterprises

• Transition from grey economies to formal markets

• Tourism and eco-tourism

• Mining• Renewable Energy• Palm Oil Production• Halal Industry• Islamic Banking and

Finance

1. Increase contribution to the national output;

2. Intra- and inter-regional trade enhanced and boosted;

3. Correct socio-economic disparities.

BANGSAMORO: 3 Major Scenarios

Source: dzrhnews.com

Thank you


PANEL DISCUSSION


LUISITO MONTALBOPanelist

Undersecretary, Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process


PANEL DISCUSSION


AMINA RASUL-BERNARDOPanelist

President, Philippine Center for Islam and Democracy


PANEL DISCUSSION


AMINA RASUL-BERNARDOPanelist

President, Philippine Center for Islam and Democracy


PANEL DISCUSSION


STEVEN ROODPanelist

Country Representative for the Philippines and Pacific Island Nations, The Asia Foundation


OPEN FORUM


CONCLUDING REMARKS

Investing in Bangsamoro for the

development of Mindanao

The 52nd Annual Meeting of the Philippine Economic Society14 November 2014

Hotel Intercontinental ManilaLegaspi Room

Documents

Investing in Bangsamoro for the development of Mindanao The 52nd Annual Meeting of the Philippine Economic Society 14 November 2014 Hotel Intercontinental