06/05/2015

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David Booth

Professor of Marine Ecology

UTS

Invaders from the North:

15 years of monitoring tropical

fishes

on the Sapphire Coast

Outline

1. The dynamic Sapphire Coast

2. Surprise visitors! 15 years of monitoring vagrant fish: patterns and citizen science

3. Why is it so? Getting here and what happens next…

4. The future: coral reefs on the Sapphire Coast??

1. Setting the scene: the ocean

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#Nelson

Cairns

Sydney

Auckland

Canberra

Brisbane

Newcastle

Melbourne

Wellington

Townsville

Rockhampton

Western Boundary Currents: key poleward dispersal agents

EAC

KUROSHIO CURRENT

GULF STREAM

BRAZIL CURRENT

equator (Nakamura, 2013)

(Booth et al., 2007)

(McBride, 1998)

(Floater et al. 2009)

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Cairns

Sydney

Auckland

Canberra

Brisbane

Newcastle

Melbourne

Wellington

Townsville

Rockhampton

2001 NSW Fish diversity

Tropical fish range advance

Temperate fish range retraction

An extreme case: tropical fish incursions into temperate seas

Sporadicperipheral

Corebreeding

Peripheral(recruitmentonly)

Adultedge(non-breeding)

Edgebreeding(offspringmostlyadvectedaway)

TROPICAL TAXA

Polew

ard tran

spo

rt

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Latitudinal patterns

•Montague Island (36°15’ S) 75 tropical species

•Merimbula (37° S) 44 tropical species

Lord Howe Is.

One Tree Island (23°S) 600 tropical species

Solitary Islands (30° S) 250 tropical species

Sydney (33.5 ° S) 86 tropical species

LHI (31.5° S) 400 trop. spp.

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jan 2002 Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012

Nu

m t

rop

ical

sp

eci

es

Sydney

Merimbula

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan 2000 Jan 2002 Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016

Nu

m t

rop

ical

sp

eci

es

Species accumulation

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50

100

150

200

250

300

350

SYD total

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35

40

45

50

MEM total

Abundance thru time…

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2

4

6

8

10

12

14

De

nsi

ty(#

/10

00

m-2

)

MEM chaets

MEM poms

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

De

nsi

ty (

# p

er

10

00

m-2

)

SYD chaets

SYD poms

C. auriga C. flavirostris

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1

1.5

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2.5

3

MEM C auriga

MEM C flav

C. auriga

C. flavirostris

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35

40

45

0 10 20 30 40 50

C f

lavi

rost

ris

abu

nd

ance

C. Auriga abundance

Species concordance

C. flavirostris

C. auriga

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Rare species (<10 indiv over 13 years) Acanthurus lineatus 2005, 2011, 2012, 2013 Scolopsis sp. 2013 Pseudanthias squamipinnis 2002, 2004, 2011 Pomacentrus wardi 2004 Pomacentrus nakasakiensis 2011 Caesio caerulaurea 2013

LARVAL STAGE

JUVENILE STAGE

Growth patterns Increment number • Time in the plankton (PLD)

LARVAL STAGE

JUVENILE STAGE

Growth patterns Increment number • Time in the plankton (PLD)

Increment width • Somatic growth • Lipid reserves • Water chemistry

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Cairns

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Auckland

Canberra

Brisbane

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Melbourne

Wellington

Townsville

Rockhampton

20

25

30

35LizardId.OneTreeIs.LordHow

eIs.

SydneyJervisBayMerim

bula

PLD,days

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Sydney

Auckland

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Townsville

Rockhampton

from Booth and Parkinson 2011

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0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

Eg Chaetodon vagabundus

Berumen et al. 2011 40-60% self-recruit Parentage analysis (PLD 27-49d)

Booth et al. 2007

Within-species variation in dispersal…

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Pelagic growth

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50

100

150

200

250

300

1 11 21 31 41

Cu

mu

ltiv

e In

cre

me

nt

wid

ths

(um

)

Increment #

Lizard

One Tree

Solitaries

Lord Howe

Sydney

Jervis

Merimbula

Pelagic growth

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 11 21 31 41

Cu

mu

ltiv

e In

cre

me

nt

wid

ths

(um

)

Increment #

One Tree

Solitaries

Lord Howe

Sydney

Merimbula

Pelagic growth

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 10 20 30 40

Cu

mu

lati

ve in

cre

me

tn w

idth

(u

m)

Days

One Tree

Lord Howe

Sydney

Jervis

Merimbula

• Spawning on the reef

• Ocean currents

• Water temperature

• Greetings on arrival

• Finding a niche! Ex

pat

riat

ion

From Reef to Sapphire coast…

• 360 species within 55 different families

-5

5

15

25

35

45

55

Ch

aeto

do

nti

dae

Bal

isti

dae

Aca

nth

uri

dae

Kyp

ho

sid

ae

Mu

llid

ae

Ost

raci

idae

Pem

ph

erid

ae

Cir

rhit

idae

Lab

rid

ae

Po

mac

entr

idae

Scar

idae

Lutj

anid

ae

Mo

nac

anth

idae

Syn

od

on

tid

ae

Cae

sio

nid

ae

Lati

dae

Pte

rele

otr

idae

Leth

rin

idae

Siga

nid

ae

Eph

ipp

idae

Mal

acan

thid

ae

Po

mac

anth

idae

Sco

rpae

nid

ae

Plo

tosi

dae

Ho

loce

ntr

idae

Ble

nn

iidae

Tetr

aod

on

tid

ae

Pin

guip

edid

ae

Serr

anid

ae

Ple

sio

pid

ae

Hae

mu

lidae

An

ten

nar

iidae

Nem

ipte

rid

ae

Mic

rod

esm

idae

Syn

ance

iidae

Ger

reid

ae

Ap

ogo

nid

ae

Pla

tyce

ph

alid

ae

Spar

idae

Go

bie

soci

dae

Go

biid

ae

Trip

tery

giid

ae

Cal

lion

ymid

ae

Syn

gnat

hid

ae Pro

po

rtio

nal

im

po

rtan

ce o

f va

gran

cy w

ith

in t

rop

ical

fam

ilie

s

Families

Who makes it???

Feary et al 2013 Fish and Fisheries

IS BIGGER BETTER?

• Bigger larvae = wider dispersal?

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Ave

rage

siz

e (

mm

TL)

Red = vagrants Blue = non-vagrants

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Larval swimming ability

[Predict: better performance in vagrants] Active swimming

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Ave

rage

Ucr

it (

cms-

1)

Red = Vagrant Blue = Non-vagrant p = 0.015

• Larval swimming ability

Delivered by ocean currents…

do they really ride the EAC??

0

5

10

1-Ja

n

16-Jan

31-Jan

15-F

eb

1-Mar

16-M

ar

31-M

ar

15-A

pr

30-A

pr

15-M

ay

30-M

ay

May 8, 2004 Apr 30, 2004 Apr 22, 2004

C. auriga C. flavirostris

Does EAC strength predict abundance?

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2000 2005 2010 2015

EAC STRENGTH 32-34S

32-340S Sun et al. 2012

1997

2000

1999 1998

2001

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EAC strength vs abundance, richness

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10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

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Tota

l ab

un

dan

ce

Sydney

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140

7 8 9 10 11

Tota

l Ab

un

dan

ce

Merimbula

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50

7 8 9 10 11

Ric

hn

ess

Sydney

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Ric

hn

ess

Merimbula

EAC strength index

What about ocean temperature?

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10/14/09 12/3/09 1/22/10 3/13/10 5/2/10 6/21/10 8/10/10 9/29/10

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12/14/05 2/2/06 3/24/06 5/13/06 7/2/06 8/21/06 10/10/06

Seasonal temperature drop vs persistence

SYDNEY

SYDNEY

MERIMBULA

MERIMBULA

Winter decline in abundance of tropical vagrants

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0.1

0.12

1-Dec 30-Jan 1-Apr 1-Jun 1-Aug 1-Oct 30-Nov 30-Jan

Se

as

on

al a

bu

nd

an

ce

(p

rop

.)

A. vaigiensis

P. microlepis

a

“overwintering threshold” (18C)> lower lethal temperature (~15C)

ca. 18C

from Figueira and Booth Global Change Biology 2010 Temperature (ºC) of previous winter (July - Aug)

Win

ter

surv

ivors

(norm

alis

ed to s

ite m

axim

um

)

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

0.0

0.5

1.0

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

0.0

0.5

1.0

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

0.0

0.5

1.0

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

0.0

0.5

1.0

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

0.0

0.5

1.0

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

0.0

0.5

1.0

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

0.0

0.5

1.0

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

0.0

0.5

1.0Long ReefShelly BeachJervis BayLord Howe IslandSolitary IslandsMerimbula

A. bengalensis

A. vagiensis

A. whitleyi

C. auriga

C. flavirostrus

A. sexfasciatus S. gasconyi

P. coelestis

a

b

c

d

e

f

g

h

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Indirect temperature effects??

Temperature (ºC)

Max b

urs

t sw

im s

peed (

cm

/s)

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100

150

200

250

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100

150

200

250

17 21 250

50

100

150

200

250

a

c

b

A

A

AA

A

B B

B

B

Tropical prey

Predator

Temperate prey

Lab-based approaches: Example- relative predation risk of tropical vagrants as winter water temperatures approach

Temperature (°C)

Mo

rta

lity (

z)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

17 21 250.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

a

b

Tropical prey

Temperate prey

N/A

A

AA

B B

Temperature (ºC)

Max b

urs

t sw

im s

peed (

cm

/s)

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

50

100

150

200

250

17 21 250

50

100

150

200

250

a

c

b

A

A

AA

A

B B

B

B

Tropical prey

Predator

Temperate prey

Lab-based approaches: Example- relative predation risk of tropical vagrants as winter water temperatures approach

Tropicals are relatively slower to flee from predators as water temperatures drop, so suffer higher predation risk as winter approaches…

The future under climate change

SST on the rise….

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/

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Cairns

Sydney

Auckland

Canberra

Brisbane

Newcastle

Melbourne

Wellington

Townsville

Rockhampton

Figueira and Booth Global Change Biology 2010

Win

ter T

em

p. (ºC

)

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 201014

16

18

20

22

Win

ter T

em

p. (ºC

)

1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 200014

16

18

20

22F

re

q. 1

8.5

ºC

+ w

inte

rs

1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

OTIS (23ºS)

BYRN (29ºS)

COFF (30ºS)

LHIS (31ºS)

PTST (32ºS)

SYDN (34ºS)

JRVS (35ºS)

BATE (36ºS)

MERB (37ºS)

OTIS

COFF

LHIS

SYDN

MERB

OTIS & BYRN

COFFLHIS

PTST

SYDN

JRVS

BATE & MERB

a

b

c

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Cairns

Sydney

Auckland

Canberra

Brisbane

Newcastle

Melbourne

Wellington

Townsville

Rockhampton

Figueira and Booth Global Change Biology 2010

Win

ter T

em

p. (ºC

)

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 201014

16

18

20

22

Win

ter T

em

p. (ºC

)

1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 200014

16

18

20

22

Fre

q. 1

8.5

ºC

+ w

inte

rs

1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

OTIS (23ºS)

BYRN (29ºS)

COFF (30ºS)

LHIS (31ºS)

PTST (32ºS)

SYDN (34ºS)

JRVS (35ºS)

BATE (36ºS)

MERB (37ºS)

OTIS

COFF

LHIS

SYDN

MERB

OTIS & BYRN

COFFLHIS

PTST

SYDN

JRVS

BATE & MERB

a

b

c

• EAC strengthening (350 km further south in last 50 years, expected to continue)

• SST rising poleward (partly EAC-related)

• Habitat destruction (eg bleaching) on coral reefs

• Habitat expansion poleward (urchin barrens and coral habitat spreading poleward)

34 0 North!!

Tropicalisation…..an increasing phenomenon?

Nakamura et al. 2008

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Thanks… Funding NSW Environmental Trust, Australian Research Council, Sydney Aquarium Conservation Fund. Permits All work was conducted under NSW Fisheries Permit number F96/146-6.0 and University of Sydney Ethics Permit numbers 5200 and 5214.

Collaborators UTS- Booth, Feary, Fowler, Parkinson, Beck, Tegart, Yui, Beretta, Donelson, Klanten, Beretta U Syd- Figueira, Garside, Hawes, Mac U- Madin, Luiz JCU: Munday, Pratchett UQ: Cynthia Riginos, Libby Liggins Overseas: Hixon (U Hawaii), Nakamura (Japan) NSW DPI: Malcolm, Harasti, Creese, Jordan Sapphire Coast: Luke Brown, Michael McMaster