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Introduction to Risk Governance Theory

Dr. Ing. Jonatan Lassa Institute of Resource Governance and Social Change

Weekly Seminar 11 April 2013

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Structure 1. What are

disasters and risks

2 Geography of risk

3 who is responsible in governing risks

4 network governance for risk reduction

5 Risk Governance in

Indonesia

6 how policy change? Or How

reform takes place?

7 Things to remember

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What is risk? What is a disaster?

Fig. Proske 2008:10

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1998 2005

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40 years evidence of the differences in disaster risks: O’Keefe 1976, Burton 1978, Alexander 1993, 2000, Blaikie et. al. 1994,

Wisner 2004, UNDP 2004, UNISDR 2009.

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Piers Blaikie Ben Wisner, Ian Davis, Terry Cannon

Blaikie et. al. 1994, & Wisner et. Al. 2004

R= (H*V)

(V= Vr > Vd > Vu)

Alexander 1993

Vt = RAM – RMM + RPM

Hariss et. al. 1978 , Lewis et. al. 1976, Burton 1978,

Westgate 1976 “Disaster as social construction” UNDRO 1982: Rt = (E) * (H*V)

Others (practical use for GIS, Yodmani,

Ward, Etc.)

R = probabilitas * hazard; R =

H*V/(C*M)

R = H*V/M ; R = H*V/C

Rousseau (1776) “Nature never build the houses that collapsed”

– Lisbon Earthquake 1751

1976: O’Keefe et. al. “Taking the

naturalness out of natural disaster.”

(in Nature)

1960-1980

1990s-2000

21st Century

United States (DRC’s since 1963

on Disaster Sociology):

Climate governance Resilience, environmental governance, sustainability, institutions

etc. climate governance

Propagation of governance theory in risk and disaster related notable since 2004.

Risk governance

Political ecology and political geographers

Phil O‘Keefe http://www.thegreatdebate.org.uk/

Quarantelli E. Russel Dynes

Pre 1960

•Physical vulnerability •Social vulnerability •Environmental vulnerability •Economic vulnerability rooted in the political economy and inequality

MILESTONES:

UNDP 2004, UNISDR 2004, UNISDR 2009, Handmer and Dover 2007; UNDP 2004: Global disaster risk index (Mark Pelling ed); World Bank (Dilley et, al. 2006): Global disaster hotspots

UNU-EHS work in multi vulnerability assessment 2006?

•Institutional vulnerability?

UNDRO 1982: Rt = (E) * (H*V)

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What caused this house collapsed?

Foto: © Jonatan Lassa

•Housing as an engineering product •Housing as sites of risk production and reduction – hence arena possible for social protection •Housing as architectural vision •Housing as cultural product •Housing as economical product •Housing as ecological product •Housing as a verb – a verb (Ian Devis) •House and housing as political product •Housing as cultural politics of earthquake nation: Greg Clancey 2007 •Never a simple object nor processes •Developing country

The frame of safety concept in engineering (Proske 2008)

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Ecology Geology (& Geomorphology) Geophysics (inc. Seismology) Vulcanology

Climatology Hydraulics Hydrology Meteorology

Planning and Architecture Civil engineering Geotechnical engineering Structural engineering Mechanical & Electrical engineering

Information & communication technology (ICT) Computer technology Remote sensing Risk analysis (inc. risk identification, estimation, management & communication)

Cartography Development studies Economics Geography, History Jurisprudence & legal stds Urban & regional planning Mass media studies Psychology Sociology

Epidemiology Nursing Nutrition Pharmacology General medicine Surgery & emergency medicine Public health, hygiene & epidemiology Veterinary sciences

Health sciences Social & spatial sciences

Computational & analytical

sciences

Engineering sciences

Atmospheric & water sciences

Earth & environmental sciences

HAZARD, RISK &

DISASTER

DISASTER RESEARCH IS FRAGMENTED

From David Alexander 2007

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Geography of risk

• Developed and developing world divides?

• Rural versus urban

• Distribution of risk pattern

• Power dimension of risk distribution in space

• Vulnerability distribution in space

• More schools in one region: bad or good?

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Distribution of risk is never random

http://www.worldmapper.org © Copyright 2006 SASI Group and Mark Newman

Global Risk Data Platform

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Distribution of risk is never random

• Disaster risk reduction investment does not always give the same benefit of avoided losses every where, because quality of Institutions varies among all the places.

• It is not true that every where in every place, DRR investment will always give positive outcomes. The fact suggests that amid lack of institutional quality and governance, risk reduction investment may not pay off?

• Institutions and governance dimension are often ignored by researchers.

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HOW DO WE PLAN TO REDUCE DISASTER RISKS?

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Intolerable risk and vulnerability

Tolerable risk and vulnerability

VULNERABILITY

RIS

K

Dis

aste

r th

resh

old

Society sets

a level of risk

toleration

Alexander 2007

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Dis

ast

er R

isk

Ma

na

gem

ent

Po

st Disa

ster Ma

na

gem

ent

Traditional Model of Disaster Planning &

management (2) Model Cuny (1984)

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Disaster planning & management (3) - RedR Australia

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Kompas.com

Alertnet.org

Kompas.com

Kompas.com What is a disaster?

“Don’t ask me what is a disaster. “I may not know what

a disaster is, but I know what is disastrous to me and

my family and my community” (cited from Buckle

2005)

Recent incidents of disasters in Indonesia

• Merapi eruption 2010: >350,000 IDPs

• West Sumatra 2009: >100,000 IDPs

• IOT 2004: 550,000 IDPs

• Jogja earthquake 2006: 700,000 IDPs?

• Aceh Flood 2006: >100,000?

• Flores tsunami/Eeq. 1992: 70,000 IDPs

• A total of 1.75m homeless since 1975

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Real disaster planning

• Serial thinking – manifested in ideas of planning cycles

• Parallelism thinking – many events occur in parallel or semi-parallel: people have been experiencing parallel risk – contra serial thinking

Aceh Nias Merapi 2006 Merapi 2010 Padang Landscape events

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Reconstruction

Rehabilitation

Relief

Time/Duration

Cumulative distribution curve

Unit Price

Development activities

Phasing in Phasing out x year period of intervention?

Real Disaster Planning/Management Cycle (Modified from Frerks et al. 1995 in Middleton & O'Keefe 1998)

Ad

ition

al bu

dg

et po

st crisis

When & where risk reduction is actually start?

X

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WHO IS RESPONSIBLE FOR GOVERNING RISKS AND DISASTERS?

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(1) Indonesia DRM System: Government as steering force that drives society to reduce risks

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(2) Global DRR governance mechanism through Hyogo Framework for Action(New DRR regime adopted by 168 states)

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

DRR is a national & local priority with a strong institutional basis for

implementation

Risk assessment, monitoring and warning

Knowledge and education

Underlying Risk Factors

Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels

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0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Institutions/structures/practices

Incentive structures of DRR

Human resources capacity for DRR

Disaster risk assessment

Early warning systems

Risk management systems

Formal/informal education

Public awareness, drillings etc.

Environmental and NRM Climate change adaptation

Food Security

Sosial development

Integrasi DRR in Economic Dev.

DRR Planning

Building codes and standards

Protection of criticial infrastructures

DM, preparedness & response

(2) Disaster Counter Measures: From Many Integrated Actions

Figures: facebook.com; selected HfA

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(2)

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(3) Local communities - different actors have different views; different power to define risk priorities;

Work in progress: own graph. Result from participatory risk mapping in Garut, October 2008 West Java, Indonesia Picture: @Ferry Zuljanna

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Hierarchy, Risk hierarchy in infrastructure

High

probability

events

Low probability

events

High impact

disruption

scenario

Low impact

disruption

scenariosDaily operational risks

Regular supply risks

Security risks

Policy risks

Macro economic risks

Climate extremes

Tsunami

and

earthquakes

Environmental

risks

Voluntary

Cyclone

Volcanic eruption

earthquakes

TsunamiInvoluntary

Natural Manmade

Extensive

Intensive

Coastal Landslide

Seastorm

Coastal floods

Ship collision

Oil spill

Organized crimes

Terrorism

1A 1B

Chemical explosion

Fire and accidents

From Lassa et. Al. 2012; 1A. adapted from Berle, Rice and Asbjørnslett (2011). 1B, adapted from Simth and Petley (2009:11), WEF 2012 and Bogardi et. al. (2009)

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10

1020

2650

2000 1760

5170

10200

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

June 2007 June 2008 10th Feb 2009 28-Feb-09 30 March 2009 28-May-10 20-Dec-12

What Google talks about “disaster governance”?

“disaster governance”: A

new fuzzy phrase/term now?

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Illustration of governance!

www.diplomacy.edu

in Google search engines, from a desktop from UNU Bonn

How Institution Think? Mary Douglas

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Multi-Risk governance framework

IRGC Risk Governance Framework Renn & Walker 2007, Renn 2006

See also White Paper at http://www.irgc.org/

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Disaster Risk Governance - IRGC Framework (IRGC White Paper 2005)

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Structure of stakeholder involvement in Risk Governance: IRGC Framework

?

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Governance (EID in Forsyth 2006:289)

• “inclusionary means of politics. It can be distinguished from “government” because this refers to an official body – elected or unelected – that conducts policy-making and decision-making.

• “a process of decision-making that includes bodies more than just ‘government’ and is a process that, ideally, implies willing participation within politics by all citizens.”

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Disaster Risk Governance: New Term, New Approach

• It encompasses broader spectrums of polity, politics and policies dealing with risks of disasters at different levels, scales, spheres, cycles and time continuum

• It recognizes polycentric nature of disaster risks reduction as there are many overlapping arenas (or centers) of authority and responsibility for disaster risk reduction

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Governance

• “new forms of regulation that differ from traditional hierarchical state activity and implies some form of self-regulation by societal actors, private-public co-operation in the solving of societal problems, and new forms of multilevel policy” (Biermann 2007)

• Can be: politics, policy and polity (social arena) – Anglo Saxon‘s definition

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SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM INDONESIAN EXPERIENCE

Governance and Institutional assessment

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Indonesian DRR network 2006-2009 (N=87)

1 National

Disaster

management

agency (old)

2 National

agency and

ministries

3 Other

national

level

organization

4 Media

organizati

ons

5 Academic/

research

institutes

6 National/local

NGOs 7 International

organizations 8 United

Nations

agencies

45%

25%

17%

7% 6%

Government International Institutions

NGOs/INGOs Private funds/people

Mixed government-Int. Inst.

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N = 802; Gephi output

Post

dis

aste

r n

etw

ork

in A

ceh

20

05

-20

07

fruchterman reingold algorithm

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Trends in Indonesian DRR stakeholders

• NGOs: Policy entrepreneurship – DRR policy brokers - case of Law 24/2007. As Networkers – linking media, donors, governments and the grassroots; NGO as Quasi-parliamentary – drafters of DRR regulation – case of local regulations; DRR story teller to the grass roots; Open-ended roles pertaining to DRR. Critical evaluation obviously needed. •Slow penetration from disaster risk insurance: moving to right direction?

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Hyogo Framework Implementation in Indonesia

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0 Institutional frameworks and practices

Financial resources

Community participation and decentralization

Multi sectoral platform for DRR

National and local DRA based on hazard & vulnerability information

Monitor, archive and disseminate data on key hazards and vulnerabilities

Early warning systems are in place for all major hazards, with outreach to

communities

National and local risk assessments take account of regional / trans boundary risks

Relevant information on disasters is available and accessible at all

levels/stakeholders

School curricula, education material and relevant trainings include DRR/RR

Countrywide public awareness towards culture of disaster resilience

DRR integration with Environment and NRM & CCA

Sosial development and vulnerability reduction

Economic development, sectoral dev. And vulnerability reduction

Planning and management with DRR elements incl. enforcement of building

codes

DRR are integrated into post disaster-RR

SOP to assess the risk impacts of major development projects/ infrastructure

Strong policy, technical ^ institutional capacities/mechanisms for DRR

DP plan and contingency plans are in place, regular training drills and

rehearsals are held

Financial reserves and contingency mechanisms are in place

Exchange relevant information during hazard events/disasters,

Indonesia 2009

Indonesia 2011

Local perception on constraints

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Network theory: DRR institutions

• DRR laws and regulations as nodes

• Established links between laws/regulations

as either reference, enforcement, vision of

risks reduction and operational framework

for legal enforcement.

• Formal institutions as set of networked

laws/regulations spanning from national to

locals and vise versa.

www.ash.harvard.edu 39

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Emerging shift from disaster management to disaster risk governance

• Not just a semantic?

• “Words are a starting point to concept.” (Capra 1996:282)

• “To be human is to exist in language”. (Capra 1996:282)

• Existing framework are to be hypothesized lacks vision of risk reduction spectrum

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Insights from Chambers 2007

• Words: “are formative and adaptive: they both influence and express conditions, ideologies, perceptions, practices and priorities.” page 2

• None of these words exist in Dev. Dictionary almost 20 years ago: “accountability, capabilities, civil society, consumer, decentralisation, democracy, deprivation, diversity, empowerment, entitlement, gender, globalisation, governance, human rights, livelihood, ownership, partnership, pluralism, process, stakeholder, sustainability, transparency, vulnerability, well-being.” page 3.

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Things to remember

• Risk and disaster definitions are broad encompassing diverse experience and disciplines

• Distribution of risk is never random; There is always power dimension behind the distribution of risks

• Governance requires governing of any subject matter beyond just government and subject matter experts. All, from local to global play their roles.

• This creates institutional challenges: complexity, decentralization, governance volatility, regulatory quality, implementation gaps, poor vision of risks.

• Network theory: new understanding of explaning complexity in disaster legislation and regulations.