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© OECD/IEA 2013
IEA Energy Statistics Training Week IEA, Paris, 2 - 6 March 2015
Introduction to Energy Statistics and to IEA Energy Statistics
Why and how to collect necessary energy statistics
Duncan Millard
Chief Statistician
Head, Energy Data Centre
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Overview
Why collect energy stats?
The IEA
Current issues
Dissemination
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Why collect energy stats
?
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Because they are needed and used
Households: mileage of cars, electricity consumption of houses, heating bills, etc.
Company managers Energy bills, consumption/tonne, use - where to save
Even truer for energy companies
Refinery: throughputs, stocks
Electricity generation: fuel input, electricity production
Analysts of the energy market: oil, gas, etc.
Traders, banks, universities, etc.
Policy makers
A few examples:
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Energy is a major component of any economy: GDP, balance of payment, trade, taxation, employment, etc.
Secure access to energy for all, security of supply Liberalisation Prices and taxes Fuel poverty Environment (GHG, land use, water,
desertification, etc.) International obligations Energy efficiency
Importance of energy statistics for policy makers
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Importance of energy statistics for policy makers
IEA Member countries have an obligation to hold 90 days of stocks (net imports/consumption)
Need reliable and timely data on imports, consumption and stocks
OPEC Member countries: production vs quota
Need reliable and timely data on production
EU Member countries: obligation to have a minimum share of electricity consumption coming from renewables
Need reliable data on renewables
Annex 1 countries to the Conference of Parties: respect of the engagement they have ratified when signing the Kyoto Protocol (70% to 80% of GHG come from fuel combustion)
Need reliable data on both supply and demand
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
A Policy Delivery Cycle – our opportunity?
Note: policy making is rarely as straight forward as a
simple stage by stage approach. Policy stages may
need to be iterated or repeated if it is evident that
the policy isn’t right.
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
The Policy Delivery Cycle – where stats hopefully
impacts
• Monitoring performance
indicators and expected benefits
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
The Policy Delivery Cycle – where stats can impact
• Do we really understand what the
problem or issue is?
• Are you sure there is a gap?
• What policy or evidence is already out
there & what are others doing in
UK/abroad?
• What outcome would indicate success
• Understand, quantify & analyse
impacts, costs, risks & benefits of
policy options, including on GHGs
• Address evidence gaps & identify
research & analysis required
• Monitoring performance
indicators and expected benefits
• Evaluation and reporting, eg
GHGs
• Undertake pilots & collect good
practice
• Benchmark against other
schemes
• Agree and put in place delivery
arrangements with delivery
partners and regulators
• Put in place policy monitoring,
evaluation & reporting
mechanisms
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Energy
Statistics
SUSTAINABLE
ENERGY POLICY
& TECHNOLOGY
GLOBAL ENERGY
ECONOMICS
ENERGY
MARKETS AND
SECURITY
GLOBAL ENERGY
POLICY
Training
IEA statistics feed all IEA studies and analyses
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Households
Industry
Heating
Transport
Electricity
Cooking
Coal
Agriculture
Mining
Oil Natural Gas
Lighting
Services
Energy Unit
Physical Unit
Socio-Economic Biomass
Money
What statistics to collect?
Efficiency
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
What statistics to collect?
Collecting any statistics has a cost
However not having proper information could lead to higher costs
So, limit the collecting to what is necessary
What is necessary depends on your needs
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
A few Basic Principles for Establishing an Energy Information System
Do not collect statistics for the sake of collecting
statistics but collect only statistics which are needed
Establish a legal basis
Establish a proper reporting mechanism:
Questionnaires (as user friendly as possible)
A network of contacts
An agreed timetable
Establish proper dissemination mechanism
Allocate proper resources to collect/process the data
Review methodology and process, to anticipate and
adapt to change in the energy situation
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Quick thoughts on data quality
• Understand source data
• Has data contact changed
• Can you explain the change
• Examine revisions – are they always going in same direction (ie always upwards)
• Is data collection keeping track of policy changes
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Real data varies
So ask why?
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Because business varies
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
The International Energy Agency
History
Role
International coordination and cooperation
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Member countries
IEA
OECD
Autonomous Agency of the OECD
Established in 1974 after 1st Oil Crisis
29 Members Countries (vs. 34 for OECD)
3 Es: Energy security, Economy and Environment
International Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
How IEA Statistics developed over time
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
US$/bl
Diversity (gas, coal, electricity)
Oil prices at $37/bl Emissions
Rio Summit Kyoto Protocol
Production
Imports/Exports Stocks
Consumption Transformation
Establishment
of the IEA Prices
escalating
End-Use Socio-Economic Production
Efficiency
Efficiency
Efficiency
1st Oil Crisis 2nd Oil Crisis
Dependency
Price
Security
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Organisation of the International Energy Agency
Information
Systems &
Buildings Services
Personnel &
Finance
Energy
Efficiency &
Environment
Energy
Technology
Policy
Training &
Capacity
Building
DIRECTORATE OF
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
POLICY & TECHNOLOGY
Asia Pacific &
Latin America
DIRECTORATE OF
GLOBAL ENERGY
POLICY
Oil Industry
& Markets
Emergency
Policy
DIRECTORATE OF
ENERGY MARKETS AND
SECURITY
Country
Studies
Gas, Coal &
Power Markets
Europe,
Middle East
& Africa
Energy
Data Centre
Legal
Counsel
Communication &
Information Office
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
Special Assistant
DEPUTY EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
Special Assistant
Renewable
Energy
DIRECTORATE OF
GLOBAL ENERGY
ECONOMICS
Resources
and
Investment
Energy
Economics
and Policy
Energy
Modelling
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Head
of Division,
Chief Statistician
Secretariat Desktop
Publishing
Oil
and
Natural Gas
Monthly and Annual
Oil and Gas
Statistics
Coal, Electricity
and
Renewables
Quarterly Coal
Monthly Electricity,
Annual Electricity,
Coal and Renewables
Statistics
Energy balances
CO2 Emissions
Prices and Taxes
Annual Energy
Balances,
CO2 emissions
Prices and Taxes
Energy Efficiency
Non OECD
Member
Countries
Annual Energy
Statistics and
Balances for
Non-OECD countries
The IEA Energy Data Centre
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
The Legal Basis
AGREEMENT
ON AN
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY PROGRAM
(As amended to 7th August 1992)
ACCORD
RELATIF A
UN PROGRAMME INTERNATIONAL
DE L’ENERGIE
(Tel qu’amendé jusqu’au 7 août 1992)
ÜBEREINKOMMEN
ÜBER EIN
INTERNATIONALES ENERGIEPROGRAMM
(In der Fassung vom 7. August 1992)
Decisions of Governing Board
Decisions of
Specific Committees
(Emergency preparedness, etc.)
+
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Five Annual Energy Questionnaires
Other Annual: Energy Forecast and R&D Budget for IEA
Monthly Questionnaires:
Monthly Oil and Gas Statistics, Joint Oil Data Initiative
Electricity production and trade
Exceptional Questionnaires: Mainly in case of oil crisis,
or ad-hoc activities (e.g.: Non-Energy Use Network)
The IEA reporting mechanism
Quarterly Questionnaires: Prices and Taxes questionnaire
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Production
Import
Export
International Marine Bunkers
Stock Changes
Domestic Supply
Transfers
Statistical Differences
Transformation Sector (18 sub-sectors)
Energy Sector (16 sub-sectors)
Distribution Losses
Final Consumption
Industry Sector (13 sub-sectors)
Transport (7 sub-sectors)
Other Sectors (4 sub-sectors)
Non Energy Uses
Electricity and Heat Outputs TOTAL: 95 FLOWS
What flows are collected?
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
What products are collected?
Coal (17 products/categories)
Natural gas
Crude Oil and Petroleum products (25 products)
Nuclear Energy
Hydro Energy
Renewable Energy (19 products/categories)
Waste Energy (3 products/categories)
Electricity
Heat (7 categories)
TOTAL: over 75 products/categories
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep
Questionnaires
Processing
(including
liaison with
countries)
Databases
Publications
and CD-ROMS
The annual OECD statistics cycle
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Africa
(26 countries)
Middle East
(13 countries)
Former Soviet Union
(15 countries)
OECD
(34 countries) Non OECD Europe
(11 countries)
Latin America
(22 countries)
How non-OECD data are collected
A network of statistics
contacts in 140 countries
Asia
(17 countries)
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
How non-OECD data are collected (cont.)
FAO
UN
OPEC
OAPEC
IAEA
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep
Questionnaires
Processing !
Databases
Publications
and CD-ROMS
The annual IEA statistics cycle for non-OECD countries
OECD Non-
OECD
The annual non-OECD statistics cycle
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Production
Imports/Exports by Origin and destination
Refinery data
Deliveries
Stock levels
Monthly Oil
Questionnaire
Stocks “owned” on
national Territory
Stocks in bonded areas
Stocks held by major
consumers
Stocks on board
incoming vessels
Stocks by governments
All other stocks
Stocks held abroad
Stocks on national
territory
Stocks held for other
countries
Monthly Oil Questionnaire (MOS for M-2)
For emergency and market analysis the IEA maintains an up-to-date oil database
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
National
Administrations
M
O
S
J
O
D
I
Production
Imports
Exports
Closing
Change
Refinery Intake
Crude Oil
Stocks
Petroleum Products
LPG Gasoline KeroseneGas/Diesel
OilFuel Oil Total Oil
Refinery Output
Imports
Exports
Closing
Change
Demand
Stocks
M-1
M-2
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION
AND DEVELOPMENT
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
COMMITTEE FOR ENERGY POLICY
UNITED NATIONS STATISTICAL DIVISION
ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE
STATISTICAL DIVISION (QUEST/OIL/1/Rev.1)
COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN
COMMUNITIES
EUROSTAT
ENERGY
UNIT
Attached is the annual questionnaire which provides for the submission of 2000 data and a revision of 1999 data where applicable. Administrations are requested to complete the questionnaire at the latest
31 October 2001 . However, if data are available earlier, please do not hesitate to send your questionnaire to the Head of Division, Energy Statistics, Combined Energy Staff, OECD, who will forward the data to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (Geneva). In addition, Member States of the European Union and Candidate Countries are requested to transmit the completed questionnaire to Eurostat, Head of Unit, Energy Statistics, Bâtiment Jean Monnet, Plateau du Kirschberg,
L-2920, Luxembourg.
M-2
25th
25th
-1st
Global
Database
Emergency Policy
Monthly
Oil Survey
July 2004
www.iea.org
How are monthly oil data collected and released?
MODS
Oil Market Analysis
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Issues with energy statistics
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Liberalisation of the market:
From one company to hundreds
Confidentiality (linked to liberalisation)
More work passed to statistics offices:
More companies to survey (liberalisation)
Renewables (remote information)
Energy efficiency indicators (including socio-economic data)
Environment (estimation of GHG emissions, ….)
Policy monitoring (hopefully!).
Resources do not follow work load:
Statistics still have a low profile, budget cuts
Fast turnover in staff: lack of experience, continuity Fast turnover in staff
Problems encountered in energy statistics
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
How the IEA helps to address these problems
Facilitating the work of newcomers in statistics:
Energy Statistics Manual
User-friendly electronic questionnaires
Training
Harmonisation and Cooperation
Raising the profile of energy statistics and the role of
statisticians
Ministerial meetings
Governing Board Meetings
Involvement of stats in Policy
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Facilitating
the work of
newcomers
in statistics
A user-friendly manual
to give necessary
information to
newcomers to
understand/complete
annual questionnaires
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
The Manual is now available in 10 languages and widely used all around the world
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
How the IEA helps to address these problems
Facilitating the work of newcomers in statistics:
Energy Statistics Manual
User-friendly electronic questionnaires
Training
Harmonisation and Cooperation
Raising the profile of energy statistics and the role of
statisticians
Ministerial meetings
Governing Board Meetings
Involvement of stats in Policy
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
The Joint Organisations Data Initiative
A global oil database updated every month
Harmonised definitions on oil statistics
Cooperation between 7 organisations
Raising profile of energy statistics
Extension to natural gas
The InterEnerStat Initiative
Harmonisation of all flows and products
Cooperation between 20+ organisations
Pave the way to one common questionnaire
Harmonisation and Cooperation
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
3rd JODI Conference
Mexico, 23-25 May 2002
IEA/
OECD
OPEC OLADE
APEC EUROSTAT
UN
South Africa
Brazil Mexico Saudi Arabia
Iran Nigeria
Australia
Japan
US
Russia Germany
UK
Netherlands
Libya
Philippines PR of China France
Norway
Argentina Colombia
Gabon
Indonesia
Egypt
India
Kuwait Venezuela
Belgium
Denmark
Canada
Saudi Aramco Ecopetrol
PetroVietnam Kuwait Petroleum Co. Petrobras
Shell TotalFinaElf Petronas
Statoil
JODI: The key to success: cooperation between countries, organisations and companies
© OECD/IEA, 2008
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
UN
OPEC
OAPEC AFREC
One questionnaire for all: ultimate objective…
?
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
UN
Secretaria de Energía
Mexico
Harmonisation and Cooperation
Mexico is a member country of 4 major organisations
1995 1996 1997 1998
APEC 2653 2903 3087 3134
IEA 2741 2872 3062 3109
OLADE 2722 2969 3022 3070
OPEC 2618 2858 3022 3071
UN 2834 2977 3166
Crude Oil Production for Mexico (in kbd)
3210
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
How the IEA tackles these problems
Facilitating the work of newcomers in statistics:
Energy Statistics Manual
User-friendly electronic questionnaires
Training
Harmonisation and Cooperation
Raising the profile of energy statistics and the role of
statisticians
Ministerial meetings
Governing Board Meetings
Involvement of stats in Policy
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Stats systems need to adapt
There are constant changes in the energy sector
New products Oil shale, tar sands
Shale gas
LNG
Ethanol
New forms of energy Wind
Photovoltaic
Hydrogen
Developing issues Liberalisation
Development of trade (oil, coal, gas, electricity)
Kyoto protocol/CoP
Energy efficiency
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gt C
O2
CCS 19%
Renewables 17%
Nuclear 6%
Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5%
End-use fuel switching 15%
End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%
BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
Baseline emissions 57 Gt
WEO 2009 450 ppmcase ETP2010 analysis
Energy efficiency will account for almost half of the reduction
Analysts all agree on the future role of efficiency
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
However, what is the current situation?
2% per year
0.8%
per year
From 1974 to 1990,
energy efficiency
contributed to 2%
per year to
maintain growth
From 1990 to 2008
it contributed to
less than 1% per
year
So, why little when much more should be done?
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Improved data needed
Table of contents
Introduction - Why a manual?
What are energy efficiency indicators?
How to collect the date for indicators?
Collecting what and how for the Residential sector
Collecting what and how for the Services sector
Collecting what and how for the Industry sector
Collecting what and how for the Transport sector
Validating the data
Disseminating the data
Annexes
Great questionnaire! But how to
collect the data? And what indicators
to build with these data?
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Each indicator
repertoriated:
Example: A3a
A for appliances
+
1 – general
2- detailed
3 – very detailed
A smiley face
indicates that
this indicator is
the
recommended
one
Overview of the Residential Chapter
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Identification
number: R: Residential
Su: Survey
If the value of
the Manual is
in the first
chapters, the
value is
certainly also
in the Annex
Background
Survey: Sample,
Frequency,
Data
Comments: Challenges
Key learnings
Documents
Links (e.version)
160 practices
covering
surveys,
modelling,
metering and
administrative
sources
The Annex: An essential part of the Manual
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Dissemination
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Why is dissemination important
“Official statistics are fundamental to good government, to the delivery of public services and to decision-making in all sectors of society” – preamble to UK Code of Practise for Official statistics
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Why is dissemination important
“Official statistics are fundamental to good government, to the delivery of public services and to decision-making in all sectors of society” – preamble to UK Code of Practise for Official statistics
Quality data – data produced to good and open methodology that are used
and make an impact
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
IEA studies/analyses
Member countries
Policy makers
Energy analysts
Traders, banks
Journalists
Academia
The man in the street
Disseminating IEA Statistics: the target groups
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Books
CDs
Internet
Free access to Administrations
Subscription for others
Pay-per-view also available
KWES
Establish a proper dissemination mechanism
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Good chart?
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
UK Energy consumption by main industrial groups 2009
Iron& steel and non -ferrous metals
8% Mineral products11%
Chemicals17%
Mechanical engineering and metal products
5%
Vehicles5%
Food, drink & tobacco
12%
Paper, priniting publishing
9%
Other industries21%
Unclassified12%
Good chart?
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
UK Energy Consumption by main industrial groups 2009
Source: Energy Consumption in the UK 2010
Iron& steel and non -ferrous metals
8%
Mineral products11%
Chemicals17%
Mechanical engineering and metal products
5%
Vehicles5%
Food, drink & tobacco
12%
Paper, priniting publishing
9%
Other industries21%
Unclassified12%
Clearer chart?
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Charts
Everyone can understand a good chart!
UK Final Energy Consumption 2001 - 2011
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Mto
e
Has been on the decline since 2005
Record decline in 2011,a fall of 7%.
Cold year
A good picture is worth a thousand words
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
The Key World
Energy Statistics is
also available as
an iPhone and
Android
application.
In 2012 the app
became much
more user-friendly
and interactive
than the previous
versions
A special version
is also available for
iPad
IEA Stats
A Windows version
now available
Dissemination means visibility
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Map access to any
particular country’s
data
Access to data in
3 clicks maximum
User-friendly
20 years of data
Dynamics
Indicators maps
Sankey flows
New user-friendly
features
Dissemination means visibility
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
The IEA website
http://www.iea.org/statistics/
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
Monday 2 Tuesday 3 Thursday 5
Opening
Introduction to energy statistics
Examples of national energy data collection
systems
Challenges in
national energy
data collection
Annual oil Renewables
Annual gas
Preparing
estimates
of CO2
emissions
A quick overview of the Agenda
Energy
efficiency
indicators
Monthly gas
Wednesday 4
Tracking
energy
prices
Friday 6
Closing
Energy
Efficiency
Indicators
(cont.)
Monthly oil
Coal
statistics
Checks and
consistency
Electricity
and heat
Electricity
and heat
IEA database
structure and
Energy Data
Center
From basic
statistics to
energy
balances
Energy statistics in
a selected OECD
country: France
Easy access to
IEA Statistics:
Beyond 20 files
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA, 2010
A few words to conclude
Energy statistics are the basis for any sound energy policy. As a consequence, it is essential to allocate proper resources to collect the necessary data for monitoring and planning
You don’t build reliable statistics overnight. It takes time, effort, regulation/law, resources, …
It took 40 years for the IEA to establish its statistics but it is a never ending process since we are constantly expending coverage and struggling for improving quality
Harmonisation and cooperation are two key words to improve quality and coverage of energy statistics
The IEA is extremely committed to strengthen cooperation with OECD and non-OECD countries as well as with regional and international organisations
This is the reason why we are delighted to be with you for the next five days in order for us to better understand strengths and weaknesses of energy statistics in your respective countries and for sharing our own experience of international energy statistics.
It is our sincere hope that this workshop will further strengthen the relationship between you and us, and between your countries and the International Energy Agency. Thank you