Statistics 5802

Statistics 5802Introduction to

1976

Cost of Living 1976Year End Close Dow Jones Industrial Average 1004 Average Cost of new house $43,400.00 Average Income per year $16,000.00 Average Monthly Rent $220.00 Cost of a gallon of Gas 59 cents Polaroid Camera Camera History $28.00

1976 TechnologyConcorde operated by Britain and France enters service cuts transatlantic flying time to 3 1/2 hours Apple Computer Company is formed by Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak First laser printer introduced by IBM - the IBM 3800

X

No communication between students and professors prior to first day of class!

EMBA - 1996

Year End Close Dow Jones Industrial Average 6448 Average Cost of new house $118,200Average Income per year $36,300 Average Monthly Rent $554Cost of a gallon of Gas $1.22 Average cost of new car $16,300

DVD's Launched in Japan

In 12 months number of Internet host computers goes from 1 million to 10 million

Windows NT 4.0 released by Microsoft

Internet Explorer 3 web browser released

Ebay started the online auction and shopping website, where people buy and sell goods and services worldwide.

Getting started in the EMBACohortShowed up in FallDistributed materials and diskettes/CDsGave introduction in strategy classIntroduction included work due BEFORE the first day of class!!

EMBA TodayIntroduction via PowerPointNo need to interrupt strategy, statistics or accounting

AgendaCourse and Syllabus OverviewObjectiveSoftwareProjectsFirst Homework Assignment!!

Statistics

Brand LoyaltyMedia selectionSchedulingPrice GuaranteesInventoryBiddingEnrollment ManagementCapital BudgetingPublic ServicesPortfolio SelectionWorkforce trainingProduct MixResource allocationDietsLocation

The TextbookQuantitative Analysis for Management, 10th edition by Render, Stair and Hanna, Prentice-Hall, 2009

Note: The text should be treated as a supplement. I will present the bulk of the material in class. You can skim the chapters in the text prior to class paying attention to the modeling aspects but for the most part ignoring the computational aspects.

Course RequirementsIndividual Interfaces paper and presentation (10%)Individual forecasting project (20%)Linear programming interpretationsIndividual (10%)Team (10%)Team decision tree analysis(7.5%)Team, (in class), simulation project (7.5%)Team take-home examination (15%)In-class, individual, examination (20%)

Workload

HomeworkAssignmentEmailed to listservBlackboard Announcementhttp://astro.temple.edu/~hweiss/emba/prepForStat5802OverBreak.doc

Homework is due no later than Jan 9

Homework 1 of 5QM for WindowsInstall POM-QM for Windows, V4 from http://astro.temple.edu/~hweiss/emba/software/Try solving a linear regression from your Statistics 5801 class using POM-QM for Windows . (The module for regression is forecasting)Help has tutorials and a manual

Homework 2 of 5Excel QMInstall Excel QM from http://astro.temple.edu/~hweiss/emba/software/Security in Excel must be set properly for the add-in to workTry solving a linear regression from your Stat class using Excel QM . (The module for regression is forecasting)

Homework 3 of 5Excels SolverExcel 2007Go to the Data Tab and make certain that Solver is one of the items. If it is not, then go to Microsoft Office Button, Excel Options, Addins and check the Solver box.

Homework 4 of 5InterfacesSelect the article that you would like to write about. See the syllabus for instructions about exactly what needs to be written. I suggest that you use the search feature and search for a keyword that interests you. For example, you might search for articles about the industry in which you work.Email me the information on the article no later than January 9.TitleAuthorsVolumeNumberKeywords

Homework 5 of 5Forecasting Project Data SetTime seriesA sequence of observations of a single measurement (e.g., sales) over time.SeasonsQuartersMonthsDays of weekHours of daysFour complete cycles16 (4 * 4) quarters48 (4 * 12) months of data20 (4 * 5) or 28 (4 * 7) days of data96 (4 * 24) hours of dataWe will use this data set on the first weekend of class

QuestionsIf you have any problems or questions with any of this assignment then be sure to contact me.

hweiss@temple.edu

Workload20.05000.015384615400.01428571430.05000.015384615400.01428571430.05000.015384615400.01428571430.05000.015384615400.014285714300.0500.015384615400.014285714300.0500.015384615400.0142857143000.050.015384615400.0142857143000.050.015384615400.01428571430000.01538461540.01538461540.01428571430000.01538461540.01538461540.01428571430000.01538461540.01538461540.01428571430000.01538461540.01538461540.01428571430000.01538461540.01538461540.0142857143000000.0142857143000000000000

ForecastingLP1LP2 (grp)InterfacesTake home Exam (grp)ExamCalendar Week% of gradeWorkload

Sheet10.20.10.10.20.20.2422131314calendar weekForecastingLP1LP2 (grp)InterfacesTake home Exam (grp)Exam1Saturday, January 1711012(Saturday, January 24)11013Saturday, January 3111014(Saturday, February 7)11015Saturday, February 1411016(Saturday, February 21)11017Saturday, February 2811018(Saturday, March 6)11019Friday, March 191119Saturday, March 2011110(Saturday, March 27)11111Saturday, April 311112(Saturday, April 10)11113Saturday, April 17114(Saturday, April 26)15Saturday, May 3 (2:30-5:00)calendar weekForecastingLP1LP2 (grp)InterfacesTake home Exam (grp)ExamTotalCum110.05000.015384615400.01428571430.07967032970.0796703297220.05000.015384615400.01428571430.07967032970.1593406593330.05000.015384615400.01428571430.07967032970.239010989440.05000.015384615400.01428571430.07967032970.31868131875500.0500.015384615400.01428571430.07967032970.39835164846600.0500.015384615400.01428571430.07967032970.47802197877000.050.015384615400.01428571430.07967032970.557692307788000.050.015384615400.01428571430.07967032970.6373626374990000.01538461540.01538461540.01428571430.04505494510.6824175824990000.01538461540.01538461540.01428571430.04505494510.727472527510100000.01538461540.01538461540.01428571430.04505494510.772527472511110000.01538461540.01538461540.01428571430.04505494510.817582417612120000.01538461540.01538461540.01428571430.04505494510.86263736261313000000.01428571430.01428571430.8769230769141400000000.8769230769151500000000.87692307690.20.10.10.20.07692307690.2

Workload0.05000.015384615400.01428571430.05000.015384615400.01428571430.05000.015384615400.01428571430.05000.015384615400.014285714300.0500.015384615400.014285714300.0500.015384615400.0142857143000.01250.015384615400.0142857143000.01250.015384615400.01428571430000.01538461540.00384615380.01428571430000.01538461540.00384615380.01428571430000.01538461540.00384615380.01428571430000.01538461540.00384615380.01428571430000.01538461540.00384615380.0142857143000000.0142857143000000000000

ForecastingLP1LP2 (grp)IntTake home Exam (grp)ExamCalendar Week% of gradeWorkload

divide by groups0.20.10.0250.20.050.2422131314calendar weekForecastingLP1LP2 (grp)IntTake home Exam (grp)Exam1Saturday, January 1711012(Saturday, January 24)11013Saturday, January 3111014(Saturday, February 7)11015Saturday, February 1411016(Saturday, February 21)11017Saturday, February 2811018(Saturday, March 6)11019Friday, March 191119Saturday, March 2011110(Saturday, March 27)11111Saturday, April 311112(Saturday, April 10)11113Saturday, April 17114(Saturday, April 26)15Saturday, May 3 (2:30-5:00)calendar weekForecastingLP1LP2 (grp)IntTake home Exam (grp)ExamTotalCum110.05000.015384615400.01428571430.07967032970.0796703297220.05000.015384615400.01428571430.07967032970.1593406593330.05000.015384615400.01428571430.07967032970.239010989440.05000.015384615400.01428571430.07967032970.31868131875500.0500.015384615400.01428571430.07967032970.39835164846600.0500.015384615400.01428571430.07967032970.47802197877000.01250.015384615400.01428571430.04217032970.520192307788000.01250.015384615400.01428571430.04217032970.5623626374990000.01538461540.00384615380.01428571430.03351648350.5958791209990000.01538461540.00384615380.01428571430.03351648350.629395604410100000.01538461540.00384615380.01428571430.03351648350.662912087911110000.01538461540.00384615380.01428571430.03351648350.696428571412120000.01538461540.00384615380.01428571430.03351648350.72994505491313000000.01428571430.01428571430.7442307692141400000000.7442307692151500000000.74423076920.20.10.0250.20.01923076920.2