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Introduction
“The classic account of financial contagions presents a standard pattern in which speculative fevers are caused by the appearance of new, unusually profitable investment opportunities”
what if one replaces “unusually profitable investment opportunities” with “subprimes” ?
Defining crises
how does a crisis work? (a) a new product appears (b) prices of the “new product” go up to unsustainable peaks (c) panic follows as investors sell assets, beginning with the “new product” (d) later passing to anything similar
Defining crises
factors fostering/preventing the spread of a crisis:capital mobilityfixed currency exchange ratesfinancial regulation
types of crises:banking crisescurrency crises
Rules and solutions to prevent or stop crises
a relation between interpreting and solving crises
needing a “lender of last resource”example: a central bank injecting
liquidity
fighting moral hazard with ruleslet the market go and learn the lesson
Rules and solutions to prevent or stop crises
solutions should consider the type of crisis and the players concerned
lender of last resource:usefull if economies involved are soliduseless if economies involved are weak
rules against moral hazard:usefull if economies involved are weakuseless if economies involved are strong
Crises propagation: interdependance vs contagion
crises may spread in two ways: (a) interdependence (b) contagion
interdependence crisis naturally spreads to markets that
are integrated
price correlation of financial products in different markets is mostly determined by this integration
Crises propagation: interdependance vs contagion
contagionrequires the involvement of loosely
integrated economies
determines a faster and broader spread of the crisis
price correlation overcomes any possible statistical distorsion
Financial crises, an historical overview
looking for contagion in the historical record, from 1637 to 1997
evidence needed isrates correlation (covariance) among
different markets, and different products: (short terms
bank loans, bonds, equities …)
seeking for the lessons learned
The first crisis: Amsterdam’s tulip mania (1636-1637)
1636-37, a “frenzy” determined by a new product: bulbs from China
no contagion, and almost no propagation
lessons learned: promoting lasting financial innovation
Two 18th century bubbles: Mississippi and South Sea
1719-20, speculation on shares of chartered joint-stock companies
financial and monetary contagion of England, France and Amsterdam
lessons learned vary:English boom of financial capitalismFrance step-back and Amsterdam
decline
The first Latin American debt crisis (1825)
1825, a crisis caused by default of (some) Latin American countries1820 Latin American bonds are more
profitable than UK obligationsa first flop on London market in 1825followed by peaks in the fixing for
unreliable countries (Peru, Chile)and a crash in 1828
The first Latin American debt crisis (1825)
evidence of no contagion: (a) correlation among various “latin bonds” only before 1825(b) correlation London stock-market index stops after 1825 drop
lessons learned, in the UK: new law on bakruptcy, and more
conservative monetary, and financial policies
Gold standard and its impact
from 1870 the gold standard emerges
currency and financial systems are more integrated than ever before
interdependence becomes thus physiological, but what about contagion?
The 1873 panic: Germany and Austria
1873, a bubble based on French war reparations to Germany:stock-market collapse in Berlin and
Vienna, plus contagion to Italy, Holland and USA, followed by a trade froze
from data no evidence of contagion possibly because gold standard was
not enforced
The first crisis in the era of the gold standard: 1890 Baring crack
spring-october 1890, a bank crisis:Argentina’s default involves London
Baring Bank and leads to a bank crisis in the USA
limited contagion (USA and Russia)a lender of last resort and
integration not yet complete lessons learned:
coordination between central banks
The 1893 USA bank crisis
1893, a bank crisis that becomes a currency crisis
a frame-work of increasing pressures on the gold standard
evidence of contagion:only in 3 out of 12 cases
shocks hit the core of the system
The 1907 panic
1907, lack of liquidity in NY market:(a) money for S.Francisco earthquake(b) UK denies the needed capitals(c) from NY the infection spreads in all
financial centres of the world
evidence of widerange contagionlessons learned:
saving gold for WW I ?
The greatest financial crisis of all (1929-1934)
before the crisis: “the five good years” (1924-1929)gold standard return
a lower degree of protectionism
remote cause of the crisisagricultural worldwide overproduction
followed by a drop in prices
The greatest financial crisis of all (1929-1934)
immediate causeoctober wall street crashes
from stock market to credit: indebtment determines a lack of
liquidity: “credit crunch”
from USA to Europea domino effect caused Europe
indebtment with USA banks
The greatest financial crisis of all (1929-1934)
effects of the crisisdefaults in payments: (i) equities
on credit, (ii) bank loans …
credit crunch
controls on capital exchange
freeze of international trade
The greatest financial crisis of all (1929-1934)
key-moments of a long-lasting crisisWall street panic, October 1929
failure of Kreditanstalt in Austria, May 1931
UK quits the gold standard, September 1931
USA dollar devaluation, May 1933
The greatest financial crisis of all (1929-1934)
a long-lasting crisis, a lender of last resort is lacking
a widespread crisis, determined by banking interdependencein a context of feeble financial integration
explains the paradox: no evidence of contagion
The greatest financial crisis of all (1929-1934)
long lasting learning from the 1929 crisis:
(1) usefulness of the lender of last resource
(2) a relation between crisis’ propagation and interdependence
The post 1929-1934 scenario
the 1930s: world is divided in trading (and financial) blockssterling area, reichsmark block,
East-Asia …
the post WW II period: controls on capital flows (IFM, World Bank), and commodity market integration
The post 1929-1934 scenario
results: a stable framework in which no global financial crises occuronly currency crises locally confined
problems: USA economic policy is constrained by its leadership
the escape: the 1971 Nixon package
The New Financial Crises
analysis of recent crises: no evidence of contagion
the underlaying thesis:
(a) interdependence not contagion
(b) crises are the “tall to pay” for enjoying the benefits of integration
(c) 1929-34 an unrepeatable crisis
The New Financial Crises
a typical pre-2008 crisis approach
after 2008, a strong revision:
(1) 1929-34 is not exceptional
(2) uneven income distribution fosters both crises
(3) 2008 is perhaps the last episode of a long lasting bubble (at least from 2001)