Introduction of T-PARC-China Component

Dehui Chen1, Jishan Xue1 and Zhemin Tan2

(April 23, 2007, Beijing, China)1LaSW/CAMS

(state-key Laboratory of Severe Weather/Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science

2NJU (Nanjing University), China

Thanks to the contributors from the members of THORPEX-China committee, ARC and N-ARC

Outline

1. THORPEX?

2. I. T-PARC?

3. T-PARC-China

4. Summary and Discussion

THORPEX: a world wild atmospheric research program within WWRP/WMO for 10 years.

THORPEX science plan was completed in 2003; and THORPEX Implementation Plan (TIP) started in 2005.

Main goal: to accelerate to increase the accuracy of 1 day to 2 weeks HIW forecasts.

1. THORPEX abbreviated from THe Obs. Research and Predictability EXperiment

THORPEX : Four Sub-programs

Dynamical Processes & Predictability (PDP)

Data Assimilation & Observing Strategies (DAOS)

Observing Systems (OS)

850 KM

SUBSATELLITE POINT

GOMS (Russian Federation)

76E

MSG

(EUMETSAT) 63 E

MTSAT (J apan)

140E

FY-2 (China)

105E

GOES-E (USA) 75W

NPOESS (USA)

GOES-W (USA) 135W

Oceanographic Missions

AtmosphericChemistryMissions

HydrologicalMissions

High-resolutionLand useMissions

METEOR 3M(Russian Federation)

METEOSAT

(EUMETSAT) 0 Longitude

(China)FY-1

Metop (EUMETSAT)

Societal & Economic Research & Applications (SERA)

2. I. T-PARC?

T-PARC is short form of THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign.

It is an integrated atmospheric research program from several THORPEX regional projects which are planning to be conducted over Asia-Pacific Ocean and the adjacent areas.

NRL P-3 and HIAPER with theDLR Wind Lidar

NRL P-3 and HIAPER with theDLR Wind Lidar

Upgraded Russian Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPYRadiosonde Network for IPY

Winter storms reconnaissanceand driftsonde

IPY(07-09)(Courtesy of T. Nakazawa )

AMAMY08Y08Palau/Palau/

JAMSTEXJAMSTEX

T-PARC Experiment fields

SCHeREX

Motivations of T-PARC

The T-PARC is mainly motivated from the

Asian and North American prospective:

Societal and economic impacts from the HIWs,

such as heavy rainfall associated with the

Meiyu front, convective systems, tropical

cyclone (typhoon), extra-tropical transition

(ET), winter wind storms, and so on.

The composition of T-PARC

(1) Tropical component: Advance understanding TC genesis, interactions with L.S. circulations (sub. H.) and Improve the TC and related heavy rain predictions.

(3) Winter component: Advance understanding of winter wind storms, the upstream over EA-WCPO which influence the downstream HIWs in N-America, and Improve the prediction

(2) ET component: Advance understanding the interactions beteewn tropics & mid-latitudes, improve the ET predictions.

(4) New NWP approaches: Interactive observation-forecast system; Grand ensemble prediction system

Participants/Partners of T-PARC

The countries and organizations which have been involved in the T-PARC program:

North America: US Academic Community and US Research Institutions, Mexico and Canadian Universities and MSC;

Asia: China-CMA, IAP/CAS, Japan-JMA, JAMSTEC, Korea-KMA, Vietnam, Universities;

Europe: Germany U of Karlrsuhe, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, DLR, Met Centers through TIGGE (ECMWF, Meteo-France, Met Office, EUCOS).

3. T-PARC-China component

Why T-PARC-China?What’s interesting?

Illustration of the complicated systems in Illustration of the complicated systems in summer season: Meiyu front, mid-lat. cold summer season: Meiyu front, mid-lat. cold air flow, TC, monsoon trough, S-E trend, air flow, TC, monsoon trough, S-E trend, T.C.C. clusters, sub-T. high, etc.T.C.C. clusters, sub-T. high, etc.

(Courtesy of S.Y. Tao)(Courtesy of S.Y. Tao)

Major concerns for the weather forecast in CMA: Meiyu frontal H.R. & T.C.

Our current ability is much limited in predicting them.

It is thought to be related to the inadequacies in the initial conditions and in the treatment with dyn. & phy. processes particularly due to the lack of obs. in the south of Sub-T. high where the clouds cover often.

► 7506# (Nina) TC was generated on 20th July 1975. ► And then it moved in north westward.► It crossed Taiwan Island and landed in Fujian province at 02Z on 4th Aug. 1975.► At 20Z on 5th Aug. 1975, the tropical cyclone arrived in Changde city of Hunan province and then in Tongbo city of Henan province. It caused a dramatic flooding in Henan province.

7506# (Nina)Typhoon’s track

Henan

Hubei

Hunan

Daily 24h accumulated precipitation from 1st – 8th Aug.

The averaged amount of precip. more than 500mm/5 days; 1400 mm/5 days recorded in several stations.

Damages: dams destroyed, …?? >100 000 dead/missing, worst in histo.

Scenes from the Extratropical Transition of Super Typhoon Tokage

(2004) in Japan:

★ Damages in public infrastructure (agriculture And roads) exceeds 10B$ in 2004★ 230 deaths/missing, worst after 1983

IMPACTS OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION EVENTS:TY Tokage, October 2004, Damage in Japan and to U.S. Navy ships in Japan.

Saomai: EPS tracks from 12UTC of 6 Aug 2006

: observed position (every 24h).

“China's most powerful storm in past 50 years, Typhoon Saomai, has left at least 104 people dead. More than a million people were evacuated from the homes .. more than 50,000 houses had been destroyed.” (from the press).

Percentages of Occurrence of OCCs, 2004

L TD

TS ALL

8.3

6.751.710.0

23.3

20.0

6.760.0 0.0

13.3

6.9

10.358.6 3.4

20.7

9.6

7.754.8 6.7

21.2Courtesy of Bessho et al. 2006

3. T-PARC-China

The key points of T-PARC-China

component include:

(1) the field observation experiments with

balloon-driftsonding from Hawaii, Chinese-

made-aircraft-dropsonding over South

China Sea and intensified network over

mainland of South-China;

3. What’s the T-PARC-China (cont.)

The key points of T-PARC-China

component include (cont.):

(2) the atmospheric scientific research

focusing on the mechanism of HIWs (TC

genesis, heavy rain, interactions between

tropical-low latitudes and extra-tropical-mid

latitudes); predictability and NWP

improvements; societal economic

applications and assessments.

T-PARC-China Key points ：Obs.: Land, Aircraft, BalloonRes.: Mechan., Pred., App.

Balloon Aircraft

Land

Period: 2007~2009

Expected to fill critical gaps in coverage of clouds over oceanic regions (sensitivity Expected to fill critical gaps in coverage of clouds over oceanic regions (sensitivity area); ada. obs. + others assimilated to improve the HR forecast in targeting area.area); ada. obs. + others assimilated to improve the HR forecast in targeting area.

Tar. area

Adap. Obs. ●●●●

●●●●

24h48h 00h●●●●

●●●●

72h

(Courtesy of S.Y. Tao)(Courtesy of S.Y. Tao)

From AMMA Project (courtesy of D. Parson)

Trajectories of the balloons from upper level of Hawaii

2006-Aug. (courtesy of D. Parson)

Cost-effective dropsonde observations of wind, temperature, and humidity to fill critical gaps in coverage over oceanic and remote artic and continental regions over days to weeks. (Courtesy of D. Parson)

Driftsonde TOST

25

Objectives of T-PARC-China

• (1) to enhance the intern’l Collaborations;

• (2) to test the new techniques of adaptive observation systems;

• (3) to deeper study on the mechanism and predictability of HIWs in China;

• (4) to test the new concepts of interactive observation-prediction system.

• (5) to improve the HIW forecast

4. Summary and Discussion

4. Summary and Discussion

(1) T-PARC is a comprehensive

atmospheric research programme. The

field experiment of T-PARC covers the

pan-Asia-Pacific Ocean region.

(2) The researches focus on the TC

genesis, ET, heavy rain, interactions

between tropical low-lat. and extra-tropical

mid-lat., and on accelerating improvement

of NWP accuracy.

4. Summary and Discussion (cont.)

(3) The countries or organizations involved:

Europe (Germany, UK-Met. O.), N-America

(Canada, USA, Mexico), Asia (China, Korea,

Japan, India, Vietnam, and so on)

(4) Current status: MRI-Project approved,

Korea-Project approved, China-project and

USA-project in final step approval. 3-5th

April: a planning meeting of T-PARC in

Monterey

4. Summary and Discussion (cont.)

(5) Period: pre-Obs. in summer of 2007 (?);

Obs. in August 2008 (B08-Olympic Games)

(6) Links to AMY08, IPY-2007~2009, others

(7) By near end of next May, in Beijing,

THORPEX-China meeting; Special session

for T-PARC-China discussion; in next Oct.,

THORPEX-Asia workshop is planning

THANK YOU!