Introduction

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Predicting Wildfire Favorable Conditions

in California at Subseasonal to

Seasonal Lead Times Using Remote

PredictorsCiara Dorsay1, Tom Murphree2, Kellen Jones2

1University of California, Berkeley CA

2Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey CA

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Data1. Monthly / daily atmospheric and oceanic NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 data2. August-November 1970-20193. Indices of known climate variations (e.g., Indian Ocean Dipole)

Methods1. Statistical and dynamical analyses (e.g., conditional compositing,

correlations, regressions, wave train and teleconnection analyses)2. Experimental forecast system development and testing3. Hindcast and forecasting, including verification and skill scores

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Presentation

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Predicting Wildfire Favorable Conditions

in California at Subseasonal to

Seasonal Lead Times Using Remote

PredictorsCiara Dorsay1, Tom Murphree2, Kellen Jones2

1University of California, Berkeley CA

2Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey CA

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200 mb Geopotential Height Anomaly Associated with the most offshore wind Novembers in

California

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Data

1.NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 monthly/daily atmospheric and oceanic

data

2.August-November 1970-2019

3.Climate variation index data (MEI, DMI, EMI)

Methods

1.Detrending and standardizing of atmospheric and oceanic data

2.Conditional compositing, correlations, regressions, wave train and

teleconnection analyses

3.Experimental forecast system development and testing

4.Hindcasting and forecasting, including verification and skill scores

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17-5.12E06 -5.12E060

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IPI and Multiple Linear Regression Results

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Aug IPI vs. Nov CAU850 0.488

Sept IPI vs. Nov CAU850 0.476

Oct IPI vs. Nov CAU850 0.526

Nov IPI vs. Nov CAU850 0.472

Correl. Values between IPI and Observed Nov CAU850 1970-2019

Created IPI and combined with year

Developed MLR model

Hindcast 1970-2019 using output from linear regression model

Schematic: Interpretation of Dynamical Processes

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What could be causing ups/downs: positive phase of Indian Ocean Dipole, El Niño Modoki

What is most likely not causing ups/downs: negative phase of Indian Ocean Dipole, La Niña Modoki, El Niño/La Niña

Prediction for November 2020

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Aug Sept

IPI/CA 2020 1.7157 2.0900

EIO/CA 2020 1.6493 2.5136

AN

NN

BN

Given Aug/Sept positive SSTAs in Eastern Indian Ocean and negative SSTAs in central tropical Pacific, expect to observe wildfire unfavorable winds in California Nov. 2020

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Summary

Findings

1. California wildfire favorable winds in November are linked to tropical climate variations and may be predictable at leads of several months

2. Longer lead predictions should contribute to improved planning and reduction of risks and losses

Future Research

1. Expand to other months2. Incorporate V component of wind into methodology 3. Develop better understanding of role of climate variations4. Incorporate cross validation into prediction model

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Sources

Unless otherwise indicated, all figures provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder Colorado from their website at http://psl.noaa.gov/

Kalnay, E. and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 40-year Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.

Slide 2/9:

Associated Press, 2018: Battling 18 blazes, California may face worst fire season. Oroville Mercury Register, Accessed 4 October 2020, https://www.orovillemr.com/2018/08/08/battling-18-blazes-california-may-face-worst-fire-season/.

Slide 3:

Tucker, Jill, 2018: Insurance claims from California fires nearing $12 billion. SFGATE, Accessed 4 October 2020, https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Insurance-claims-from-California-fires-nearing-12540873.php.

Active NorCal, 2018: Camp Fire Update: Death Toll Rises to 48 as Fire Grows to 135,000 Acres, Hundreds Still Missing. Accessed 4 October 2020, https://activenorcal.com/camp-fire-update-death-toll-rises-to-48-as-fire-grows-to-135000-acres-hundreds-still-missing/.

Associated Press, 2018: Camp Fire: Town of Paradise leveled in less than a day | Updates. ABC 10, Accessed 4 October 2020, https://www.abc10.com/article/news/local/wildfire/camp-fire-town-of-paradise-leveled-in-less-than-a-day-updates/103-612969687.

Slide 11:

Cassidy, Emily, 2018: Here’s What Smoke From California’s Wildfires Looks Like From Space. Resource Watch, Accessed 4 October 2020, https://blog.resourcewatch.org/2018/11/14/heres-what-smoke-from-californias-wildfires-looks-like-from-space/.

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http://psl.noaa.gov/https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Insurance-claims-from-California-fires-nearing-12540873.phphttps://activenorcal.com/camp-fire-update-death-toll-rises-to-48-as-fire-grows-to-135000-acres-hundreds-still-missing/https://www.abc10.com/article/news/local/wildfire/camp-fire-town-of-paradise-leveled-in-less-than-a-day-updates/103-612969687https://blog.resourcewatch.org/2018/11/14/heres-what-smoke-from-californias-wildfires-looks-like-from-space/

Supplementary Slides

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BN EIO Years

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Aside: Using trended vs. detrended data

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Correlation Values between different California regions

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CA/NorCal CA/CentCal CA/SoCal

0.94 0.98 0.94

NorCal/CentCal NorCal/SoCal SoCal/CentCal

0.88 0.77 0.93

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Prediction for November 2020

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IPI Thresholds Aug Sept AN

BN threshold 1.2069 1.1753 NN

AN threshold 1.6691 1.8122 BN

EIO Threshold Aug Sept

BN threshold 1.1917 1.2848

AN threshold 1.7204 1.8125

Aug Sept

IPI/CA 2020 1.7157 2.0900

EIO/CA 2020 1.6493 2.5136

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