Introduction

Andrea CastellettiPolitecnico di Milano

NRM 08/09NRM 08/09L01L01

Indo -delta

2

Will water be the oil of 21st century?

Will the water shape this new century, as oil did the last one?

Lester Brown, How Water Scarcity Will Shape the New Century Earth Policy

Institute

3

Salt Water

98%

Fresh Water

2%

Some data

Worldwide distribution: 98% salt water 2% fresh water

Surface waters (lake and rivers) are just 0.01% of the total freshwaters

Groundwater

12%

RIvers & Lakes

0.01%

Ice

87%

4

Some data

Every year 7 milion people die from water-related deseases.

While the world's population tripled in the last century, water consumption has grown six-fold.

1900 2000

Population

Consumption

5

Some data

Predictions forecasted that 50% of the world population will be affected by water scarcity by 2025.

30% of the world population faces water crisis today

Water consumption in developed countries is more the double than in developing ones.

AmericaNEurope

Ex URSSAsia

AmericaSAfrica

2004 2025

Satisfied

Thirsty

6

Water demand

accounts for 70% of water use

Competition among agriculture and the other economic sectors

Rivers run dry before reaching the sea

• Yellow River • Nile• Gange• Colorado …..

Irrigation

Agriculture

70%

Industrial

22%

Domestic

8%

7

The Colorado river delta

8

An example of competition and its effects

9

An example of competition and its effectsthe shrinking of Aral Sea

Since 1957 Aral Sea has lost three quarter of its volume (from 1075 to 54 km3).

The old harbour town

of Muinak (•) today

lies 87 Km from the

shoreline

10

Little Aral

11

An example of competition and its effectsthe Aral Sea

Since 1957 Aral Sea has lost three quarter of its volume (from 1075 to 54 km3).

The old harbour town

of Muinak (•) today

lies 87 Km from the

shoreline

12

The Aral Sea

Vozrozhdeniye

13

Not only inter-sectoral competition: trans-national river

basins

Trans-national river basin collect 60% of the world freshwater.

14

European trans-national river basins

15

Water wars

Cooperation among States is required in trans-national river basins.

Without cooperation, competition for water may lead to frictions and raised political tensions that may result in violent disputes.

Since 1950 approximately 25% of disputes have been over water and 37 times degenerated into military actions.

16

Recent disputes areNile, Jordan, Tigris-Euphrates, Mekong, Gange.

Water wars

17

River Jordan

18

River Nile

19

Tigris-Euphrates

20

What can we do? ....

Improve the quality and quantity of water for human and environmental uses without creating conflicts.

The water volume is constant.New water can not be “produced” in significant volumes and at acceptable costs (annual runoff 34×1012 m3).

Neither it can be further withdrawn.

21

Large dams

Allow re-allocating water resources in time and space

Nowadays, 54% of freshwater is withdrawn, further withdrawals are not possible.

More than 38.000 in 1994 catching nearly16% of the total runoff.

22

“improbable solutions” …

23

What can we do ? ....

Improving the management of water resource available; re-allocating water between neighbouring regions and/or economic sectors.

How?

1) Rationalizing consumptions (acting on demand).

2) Making the management more efficient (acting on supply).

24

What can we do? ..... Integration

A new paradigm (IWRM, IRBM) must be developed for taking decisions that take into account all the issues and the stakeholders in an integrated way...

1) Multiple Users.2) Inflow Uncertainty.3) Complexity of the Uses.

integration

Physical issues: hydrological, climatological, ecological,…

Non-physical issues: technical, sociological, economical, administrative, legal

The 3 “U”

Management must consider the whole river basin

Management must consider the whole river basin

25

All the stakeholder points of view should taken into consideration.Stakeholders should be involved in decision making.

A new paradigm (IWRM, IRBM) must be developed for taking decisions that take into account all the issues and the stakeholders in an integrated way .... and these should be

taken in a participatory way.

Decisions should be negotiated among the stakeholders

What can we do? ..... Participation

26

Layout of the course

How should the course be interpreted?

How is it organized? • Lectures (AC) [48 hours] • Real Case Studies (you and AC) [12 hours]• Computer-based tutorials (SG) [40 hours]

Couse schedulehttp://home.dei.polimi.it/castelle/teaching.html

27

Course material

TEXTBOOKS

theory R.Soncini Sessa, A. Castelletti, E.Weber, Integrated and

Particpatory Water Resources Management. Theory. 2007. Elsevier

practice R.Soncini Sessa, F. Cellina, F. Pianosi, E.Weber, Integrated

and Particpatory Water Resources Management. Practice. 2007.

Elsevier

http://home.dei.polimi.it/castelle/teaching.htmlWEB SITE

These pages will house lecture notes, slides, code, URLs, etc., as they become available.

28

Main Reading

IPWRM.THEORY Introduction

29

Further Readings

Brown, L., How water scarcity will shape the new century. Water Science and Technology 43 (4), 17–22, 2001 http://www.earth-policy.org/Transcripts/Transcript1.htm

Wolf, A., Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Water Systems, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., 2002.

P. McCully, Silenced Rivers, Zed Books, 2001