Introducing the concept of Introducing the concept of Integrated AssessmentIntegrated Assessment

May 15 May 15 --16, 200616, 2006Islamabad, PakistanIslamabad, Pakistan

ByBy

Azreen KARIMAzreen KARIMEast West UniversityEast West UniversityDhaka, Bangladesh.Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Presentation CoveragePresentation CoverageBackgroundBackgroundCountry Experience(s)Country Experience(s)Importance of Integrated Assessment inImportance of Integrated Assessment inthe local context the local context -- empirical exampleempirical exampleMethodological issuesMethodological issuesConclusionConclusion

BackgroundBackgroundIntegrated Assessment is new in Integrated Assessment is new in Bangladesh.Bangladesh.It includes assessment of impact from three It includes assessment of impact from three points of viewpoints of view

EconomicEconomicSocialSocialEnvironmentalEnvironmental

Bangladesh ContextBangladesh ContextEconomic studiesEconomic studies

Several studies have been done at BIDS Several studies have been done at BIDS ‘Trade Liberalization, Exports and Growth of ‘Trade Liberalization, Exports and Growth of Manufacturing Industries in Bangladesh’, Bakht 1998.Manufacturing Industries in Bangladesh’, Bakht 1998.‘Welfare and Poverty impacts of Tariff Reforms in ‘Welfare and Poverty impacts of Tariff Reforms in Bangladesh: A General Equilibrium Approach’, Bangladesh: A General Equilibrium Approach’, Khondaker and Mujeri 2002.Khondaker and Mujeri 2002.

Social studiesSocial studiesNot systematic but impact on poverty, employment, Not systematic but impact on poverty, employment, migration were studied in other contexts at BIDSmigration were studied in other contexts at BIDS‘Health impact of Women’s Wage Employment: A case ‘Health impact of Women’s Wage Employment: A case Study of the Garment Industry of Bangladesh’, Pratima Study of the Garment Industry of Bangladesh’, Pratima PaulPaul--Majumder 1996.Majumder 1996.‘International Migration and Women: An insight to ‘International Migration and Women: An insight to Causes, Consequences and Policy implications’, Rita Causes, Consequences and Policy implications’, Rita Afsar 1994.Afsar 1994.

Bangladesh Context (contd…)Bangladesh Context (contd…)Environmental studiesEnvironmental studies

Not a large number but few examples: PREM Not a large number but few examples: PREM studies by Economic Research Group studies by Economic Research Group ‘Environmental and Social Impacts of flood ‘Environmental and Social Impacts of flood defenses in Rural Bangladesh: A Cost defenses in Rural Bangladesh: A Cost --Benefit Benefit Analysis’ Analysis’ –– done by Haque done by Haque et al. et al. 20062006‘Economic Impacts of Land Degradation on ‘Economic Impacts of Land Degradation on Bangladesh Economy, Haque 2002Bangladesh Economy, Haque 2002Many EIAs were done but on project basis. Not Many EIAs were done but on project basis. Not for a sector or for the economy.for a sector or for the economy.

What is missing?What is missing?These studies are separate and not done for a specific These studies are separate and not done for a specific change.change.Techniques used in BangladeshTechniques used in Bangladesh

MacroMacro--levellevelCGE modeling (done at Tariff Commission, BIDS)CGE modeling (done at Tariff Commission, BIDS)

To assess impact of tariff changes on the To assess impact of tariff changes on the economy.economy.

MacroMacro--econometric modeling (BIDS, IDESS)econometric modeling (BIDS, IDESS)To assess impact of changes in macroeconomic To assess impact of changes in macroeconomic policies.policies.

ProjectProject--sector or micro levelsector or micro levelProductivity changes (quite a few)Productivity changes (quite a few)

What is missing? Contd…What is missing? Contd…Valuation of health impacts (on Tanneries)Valuation of health impacts (on Tanneries)

To assess the health costs due to pollution from To assess the health costs due to pollution from tanneries (an export product).tanneries (an export product).

Hedonic Pricing models (on tanneries)Hedonic Pricing models (on tanneries)To assess changes in the land value due to To assess changes in the land value due to pollution from tanneries.pollution from tanneries.

Travel Cost methods (on Zoo, Parks)Travel Cost methods (on Zoo, Parks)To determine efficient pricing for entry into To determine efficient pricing for entry into Dhaka Zoo.Dhaka Zoo.

Contingency models to a limited extent (on lakes, Contingency models to a limited extent (on lakes, water)water)

To assess WTP of the slum people for drinking To assess WTP of the slum people for drinking water.water.To assess the cost of arsenic pollution in the To assess the cost of arsenic pollution in the groundwater.groundwater.

What are the major issues in What are the major issues in Bangladesh?Bangladesh?

Most of these studies tackle the impact on the economy in Most of these studies tackle the impact on the economy in terms of income growth, employment changes, poverty terms of income growth, employment changes, poverty impacts, productivity changes, etc.impacts, productivity changes, etc.However:However:None addressed the issue in terms of a single policy change None addressed the issue in terms of a single policy change like trade liberalization or SAFTA.like trade liberalization or SAFTA.

Most of the SAFTA related works has been Most of the SAFTA related works has been concentrated on sectoral effects by major export concentrated on sectoral effects by major export industries of Bangladesh.industries of Bangladesh.No specific studies were done on trade liberalization No specific studies were done on trade liberalization and impact on the society or on the environment.and impact on the society or on the environment.However, environmental groups, trade unions are quite However, environmental groups, trade unions are quite vocal against some of the impacts and so are the vocal against some of the impacts and so are the industrialists.industrialists.

Challenges for using IA TechniqueChallenges for using IA TechniqueNeed to start from the scratch in terms ofNeed to start from the scratch in terms of

Screening the impacts through PRAScreening the impacts through PRACategorization of impacts intoCategorization of impacts into

Economic, Social and Environmental impactsEconomic, Social and Environmental impacts

Using the valuation methods for each one of Using the valuation methods for each one of them them -- quantitative and also qualitative.quantitative and also qualitative.

ContextualizationContextualizationQuantitative models need to be used and it is possible to Quantitative models need to be used and it is possible to use some of the current studies to develop a macrouse some of the current studies to develop a macro--econometric models where impacts due to trade econometric models where impacts due to trade liberalization can be assessed.liberalization can be assessed.Environmental impacts varyEnvironmental impacts vary

By products and by markets chains.By products and by markets chains.Need to study products and market chains to assess Need to study products and market chains to assess environmental consequences.environmental consequences.Need to utilize valuation methods likeNeed to utilize valuation methods like

Productivity changes (if possible)Productivity changes (if possible)Hedonic / TC methodsHedonic / TC methodsNonNon--marketed benefits / costsmarketed benefits / costsNonNon--traded benefits and coststraded benefits and costs

Contextualization (contd…)Contextualization (contd…)Social impactsSocial impacts

will remain qualitative in nature butwill remain qualitative in nature butPoverty impacts, migration impacts could be Poverty impacts, migration impacts could be

studied using some quantitative assessment studied using some quantitative assessment techniques.techniques.Employment impacts, institutional impacts Employment impacts, institutional impacts

might have to be qualitative.might have to be qualitative.

What next?What next?To understand the usefulness of IA in the context of South To understand the usefulness of IA in the context of South AsiaAsia

We suggest using one broad based study for South Asia We suggest using one broad based study for South Asia consideringconsidering

SAFTA and a gradual integration of the economies SAFTA and a gradual integration of the economies of SA.of SA.

SDPI should considerSDPI should considerDeveloping a team of researchers from India, Developing a team of researchers from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, SL, and possibly NepalPakistan, Bangladesh, SL, and possibly NepalTo use IA technique and understand the broader To use IA technique and understand the broader implications of SAFTA outside only economic gains implications of SAFTA outside only economic gains and losses.and losses.

What next? Contd…What next? Contd…

Challenge isChallenge isShall we consider SA a one region and Shall we consider SA a one region and look impacts on SA? look impacts on SA? Or shall we keep our nationalistic focus Or shall we keep our nationalistic focus to do the study and then aggregate to do the study and then aggregate them to see the impact on the region?them to see the impact on the region?

Thank YouThank You