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INTRODUCING SPM – MICROCAP STRATEGY MAY 2016

INTRODUCINGsupremewealth.in/images/pdf/SPM_Micro_Cap_Strategy_May-2016.pdf · INDIA MACRO MOMENTUM STRONGER THAN BEFORE 2 * The currency rank relates to Dec.’ 13, ’15, ’16 (expected)

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Page 1: INTRODUCINGsupremewealth.in/images/pdf/SPM_Micro_Cap_Strategy_May-2016.pdf · INDIA MACRO MOMENTUM STRONGER THAN BEFORE 2 * The currency rank relates to Dec.’ 13, ’15, ’16 (expected)

INTRODUCING SPM – MICROCAP STRATEGY

MAY 2016

Page 2: INTRODUCINGsupremewealth.in/images/pdf/SPM_Micro_Cap_Strategy_May-2016.pdf · INDIA MACRO MOMENTUM STRONGER THAN BEFORE 2 * The currency rank relates to Dec.’ 13, ’15, ’16 (expected)

INDIA MACRO MOMENTUM STRONGER THAN BEFORE

2

* The currency rank relates to Dec.’ 13, ’15, ’16 (expected)

FY14 FY16E FY17E

GDP growth (%) 6.6 7.5 7.8

CPI Inflation (%) 10.0 4.9 5.3

CAD (% of GDP) 1.7 1.1 1.3

Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) 4.4 3.9 3.5

10-year yield y/e (%) 8.8 7.5 7.2

Currency rank * 12/24 2/24 4/24

Page 3: INTRODUCINGsupremewealth.in/images/pdf/SPM_Micro_Cap_Strategy_May-2016.pdf · INDIA MACRO MOMENTUM STRONGER THAN BEFORE 2 * The currency rank relates to Dec.’ 13, ’15, ’16 (expected)

GREEN SHOOTS ARE CLEARLY VISIBLE

3

IIP Consumer durables (%YoY HMA)

-25-20-15-10

-505

101520

Apr

-14

Jun-

14

Aug

-14

Oct

-14

Dec

-14

Feb

-15

Apr

-15

Jun-

15

Aug

-15

Oct

-15

Dec

-15

Feb

-16

Diesel & Petrol consumption (%YoY HMA)

Jan Dhan zero balance accounts falling; Rs.250bn. in a/c’s CV production (%YoY HMA)

30%40%50%60%70%80%

050

100150200250

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

Account Balance (Rs bn) % of Zero Balance Accounts (RHS)

-27-22-17-12

-7-238

1318

Apr

-14

Jun-

14

Aug

-14

Oct

-14

Dec

-14

Feb

-15

Apr

-15

Jun-

15

Aug

-15

Oct

-15

Dec

-15

Feb

-16

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-1

5

Sep

-15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16

Mar

-16

Petrol (HMA,%YoY) Diesel (HMA,%YoY)

Page 4: INTRODUCINGsupremewealth.in/images/pdf/SPM_Micro_Cap_Strategy_May-2016.pdf · INDIA MACRO MOMENTUM STRONGER THAN BEFORE 2 * The currency rank relates to Dec.’ 13, ’15, ’16 (expected)

SERVICES INDICATORS – GAINING STRENGTH

4

Air traffic growth remains robust Tourist arrivals growth remains stable

Pick up in credit growth – Personal Loans …so does service tax growth

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16

(3M

MA

, % Y

oY

)

Domestic air passenger traffic (km flown)

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

15.0

Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16

(Yo

Y,%

3M

MA

)

Foreign tourist arrivals (3MMA, % YoY)

12.0

13.5

15.0

16.5

18.0

19.5

21.0

Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16

(3M

MA

, %Y

oY

)

Service Tax (3MMA, %Yoy)

Page 5: INTRODUCINGsupremewealth.in/images/pdf/SPM_Micro_Cap_Strategy_May-2016.pdf · INDIA MACRO MOMENTUM STRONGER THAN BEFORE 2 * The currency rank relates to Dec.’ 13, ’15, ’16 (expected)

RATE TRANSMISSION TO ACCELERATE

5

Inflation to settle below pre-crisis levels

9.2

6.4

8.1

5.3

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

FY86 FY89 FY92 FY95 FY98 FY01 FY04 FY07 FY10 FY13 FY16 FY19

CPI%YoY 10 year CAGR 5 year CAGR

Source: Bloomberg, Sundaram Asset Management

The RBI has cut Repo. rates by

150bps since CY2015 start

Banks have only transmitted, on average,

50bps of this 150ps of delivered easing

2016 is set to witness the transmission of the rest and in addition, RBI could

possibly ease by another 25bps, based on fiscal /monsoon progress

Page 6: INTRODUCINGsupremewealth.in/images/pdf/SPM_Micro_Cap_Strategy_May-2016.pdf · INDIA MACRO MOMENTUM STRONGER THAN BEFORE 2 * The currency rank relates to Dec.’ 13, ’15, ’16 (expected)

EARNINGS GROWTH BOTTOMING OUT

6

Nifty Wt Quarter ending 31-Dec-15 30-Sep-15 30-Jun-15

100.0 Reported Nifty earnings gr. -9.6% 0.6% 3.8%

90.3 Nifty (Ex-cyclicals) 9.1% 8.4% 9.3%

Source: In-house Research

• Global cyclicals depress

reported Nifty earnings growth

• Nifty earnings growth,

Ex-Financials and Global

cyclicals, bottoming out

* Cyclicals include commodities, Psu banks & Tata Motors

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

13-S

ep

13-D

ec

14-M

ar

14-J

un

14-S

ep

14-D

ec

15-M

ar

15-J

un

15-S

ep

15-D

ec

NIFTY NIFTY EX Fin., Global cyclicals

Page 7: INTRODUCINGsupremewealth.in/images/pdf/SPM_Micro_Cap_Strategy_May-2016.pdf · INDIA MACRO MOMENTUM STRONGER THAN BEFORE 2 * The currency rank relates to Dec.’ 13, ’15, ’16 (expected)

7

3Q APPROACH TO STOCK SELECTION

QUALITY

BUSINESS

Positioning, Pricing power, Profitability, Growth, Brand strength, Capital intensity, Complexity of Business

MANAGEMENT

Past track record, management bandwidth, corporate governance

FINANCIALS

Capital Allocation, Leverage, Cash Flow generation, Return on capital

Page 8: INTRODUCINGsupremewealth.in/images/pdf/SPM_Micro_Cap_Strategy_May-2016.pdf · INDIA MACRO MOMENTUM STRONGER THAN BEFORE 2 * The currency rank relates to Dec.’ 13, ’15, ’16 (expected)

8

PORTFOLIO STRATEGY TO CAPTURE THE INDIA STORY

Retail financial franchisees

Domestic Consumption

Domestic Industrials

Consistent cash flow generating

business models

Page 9: INTRODUCINGsupremewealth.in/images/pdf/SPM_Micro_Cap_Strategy_May-2016.pdf · INDIA MACRO MOMENTUM STRONGER THAN BEFORE 2 * The currency rank relates to Dec.’ 13, ’15, ’16 (expected)

9

PORTFOLIO STRATEGY

Beneficiaries of increasing financial savings

• Retail financial franchisees would be a prime beneficiary of increased financial savings. Universe would include NBFCs,

retail banks and insurance companies

Pick up in Discretionary consumption

• We believe that “aspirational affordable luxury” is a secular growth story

• We expect pick up in urban consumption following implementation of 7th pay commission

Consistent cash flow generating business models

• High volatility being a new norm, we believe that business models with pricing power and technology edge that generate

consistent cash flow would continue to command higher multiples

Domestic cyclicals with capacity for growth

• Improving domestic growth led by upswing in infra spend could help the cyclicals like cement, construction and capital goods

Page 10: INTRODUCINGsupremewealth.in/images/pdf/SPM_Micro_Cap_Strategy_May-2016.pdf · INDIA MACRO MOMENTUM STRONGER THAN BEFORE 2 * The currency rank relates to Dec.’ 13, ’15, ’16 (expected)

10

Microcap Strategy

Page 11: INTRODUCINGsupremewealth.in/images/pdf/SPM_Micro_Cap_Strategy_May-2016.pdf · INDIA MACRO MOMENTUM STRONGER THAN BEFORE 2 * The currency rank relates to Dec.’ 13, ’15, ’16 (expected)

MANY MEGA CAPS HAVE STARTED AS MICRO CAPS

11

India, being a land of

entrepreneurs, provides

opportunities for young

people to build on their dreams

Market opportunity is small in the

starting phase and hence not

meaningful for larger players

Companies go through a

significant evolution process

(regulatory and otherwise)

which requires entrepreneurs

to be nimble footed

Over time, businesses

move from unorganized

to organized segment

(e.g., retail, multiplexes, fashion)

As these new business are

established and scaled up

meaningfully, they:

• Witness large expansion in sales and profit

• Enter the radar of institutional owners and price discovery happens

• Become valuable acquisition targets

Page 12: INTRODUCINGsupremewealth.in/images/pdf/SPM_Micro_Cap_Strategy_May-2016.pdf · INDIA MACRO MOMENTUM STRONGER THAN BEFORE 2 * The currency rank relates to Dec.’ 13, ’15, ’16 (expected)

WHY MICROCAPS NOW

12

+ Sundaram AMC’s proven in-house research capabilities in the small and microcap categories

SPM advantage

Wider choice in a segment that is relatively

nascent and largely under-researched

Reasonable valuations under current market

conditions provide attractive entry opportunities

Further ease of monetary conditions to favorably

impact small & microcap companies

Capital allocation: Focused

portfolio of 25-30 stocks

Flexibility to hold on to winners

without constraints

Buy-and-Hold approach to enable alpha generation

during periods of strong economic expansion

Page 13: INTRODUCINGsupremewealth.in/images/pdf/SPM_Micro_Cap_Strategy_May-2016.pdf · INDIA MACRO MOMENTUM STRONGER THAN BEFORE 2 * The currency rank relates to Dec.’ 13, ’15, ’16 (expected)

13

WIDER CHOICE

Category Mar-04 Mar-07 Mar-10 Mar-13 Mar-16

Largecap 8,642 21,084 37,642 39,843 55,755

Midcap 1,377 4,266 8,963 9,032 13,261

Smallcap 1,297 5,103 9,648 9,989 15,999

Microcap 466 2,960 5,903 5,291 9,786

Total Mcap 11,782 33,414 62,157 64,155 94,801

Share of Microcaps (%) 4.0 8.9 9.5 8.2 10.3

* Mcap in Rs. Bn

Cap-curve Based Trends across NSE & BSE

Page 14: INTRODUCINGsupremewealth.in/images/pdf/SPM_Micro_Cap_Strategy_May-2016.pdf · INDIA MACRO MOMENTUM STRONGER THAN BEFORE 2 * The currency rank relates to Dec.’ 13, ’15, ’16 (expected)

MICRO CAPS TEND TO OUTPERFORM IN UPCYCLES

14

Source: Bloomberg, Sundaram Asset Management

BSE Mid-cap and Small-cap movement against the Sensex

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Apr

-03

Nov

-03

Jun-

04

Jan-

05

Aug

-05

Mar

-06

Oct

-06

May

-07

Dec

-07

Jul-0

8

Feb

-09

Sep

-09

Apr

-10

Nov

-10

Jun-

11

Jan-

12

Aug

-12

Mar

-13

Oct

-13

May

-14

Dec

-14

Jul-1

5

Feb

-16

Sensex Middcap Smallcap

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3

Begin End %Returns Begin End %Returns Begin End %Returns

Apr-03 Jan-08 Jan-08 Oct-13 Oct-13 Apr-16

BSE Sensex 3,168 20,873 559 20,873 21,165 1 21,165 25,816 22

BSE Midcap Index 950 9,817 933 9,817 6,107 -38 6,107 11,053 81

BSE Small Cap Index 885 13,516 1,427 13,516 5,896 -56 5,896 11,064 88

Page 15: INTRODUCINGsupremewealth.in/images/pdf/SPM_Micro_Cap_Strategy_May-2016.pdf · INDIA MACRO MOMENTUM STRONGER THAN BEFORE 2 * The currency rank relates to Dec.’ 13, ’15, ’16 (expected)

MICROCAPS – OPPORTUNITIES GALORE

15

Microcap Multi-Baggers across cycles

Micro-caps have created significant value across market cycles

Opportunities to capture value is maximized during economic upturns - mix of large winners are noticeable as evidence of strength in economic expansion sets in

96

50 64

15

7

21

2

4

21

5

1

74

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2013-2016 2008-2013 2003-2008

2x-5x 5x-7x 7x-10x >10x

31% of the microcap universe created value of 7x and above during FY03-08

Page 16: INTRODUCINGsupremewealth.in/images/pdf/SPM_Micro_Cap_Strategy_May-2016.pdf · INDIA MACRO MOMENTUM STRONGER THAN BEFORE 2 * The currency rank relates to Dec.’ 13, ’15, ’16 (expected)

16

RECENT CORRECTION PROVIDES ENTRY OPPORTUNITY

* Current PE based on one-year forward positive earnings

Source: Bloomberg; Data as of April 29, 2016; Research: In-house

The Small Cap Index is currently trading at

discount compared to mid & large caps

Across Cap Curve

S&P BSE

Sensex

S&P BSE

Mid Cap

S&P BSE

Small Cap

*Price Earning Ratio 16.0 16.6 13.4

Discount Vs S&P BSE Sensex - 16%

The Small Cap Index is trading at a 32%

discount from its recent high in April 2015

Across Time

January 2008 April 2015 April 2016

18.4 19.5 13.4

Page 17: INTRODUCINGsupremewealth.in/images/pdf/SPM_Micro_Cap_Strategy_May-2016.pdf · INDIA MACRO MOMENTUM STRONGER THAN BEFORE 2 * The currency rank relates to Dec.’ 13, ’15, ’16 (expected)

17

MICRO CAP SECTOR PROFILE DISPLAYS CYCLICAL BIAS

Source: Bloomberg; Data as of April 29, 2016; Computation: In-house

Sectors Weights

Industrial Manufacturing 11.4

Consumer Goods 10.4

Construction 8.7

Financial Services 7.6

Automobile 5.6

Services 5.4

Healthcare Services 5.2

IT 5.1

Textiles 4.8

Media & Entertainment 3.7

Energy 3.7

Chemicals 3.6

Metals 3.5

Fertilisers & Pesticides 3.0

Cement 2.8

Telecom 1.1

Paper 0.6

Others 10.0

Share in NSE Market Cap (%) 10.0%

Micro Cap sector profile

Total Universe is 894 stocks

The total market cap of micro cap stocks is

Rs 9.3 lakh crore

Microcaps are 10% of the total Universe of

NSE stocks

They are diversified among sectors with a bias

towards cyclicals

Page 18: INTRODUCINGsupremewealth.in/images/pdf/SPM_Micro_Cap_Strategy_May-2016.pdf · INDIA MACRO MOMENTUM STRONGER THAN BEFORE 2 * The currency rank relates to Dec.’ 13, ’15, ’16 (expected)

18

STRATEGY DYNAMICS

Strategy Construct Equity – 80-100%

Cash – 0-20%

Reasonable exposure to MNCs

Investment Horizon 3 to 5 years

Number of stocks: 25-30 Single stock limit: 10% on initiation

Client profile For clients willing to take moderate to high risk and want to

see capital appreciation

Benchmark BSE Small cap Index

Page 19: INTRODUCINGsupremewealth.in/images/pdf/SPM_Micro_Cap_Strategy_May-2016.pdf · INDIA MACRO MOMENTUM STRONGER THAN BEFORE 2 * The currency rank relates to Dec.’ 13, ’15, ’16 (expected)

19

WHY MNC?

Export Potential

Over time, some of the companies would achieve critical scale, where

exports from Indian entities would become viable

We have already seen some of the growth stories based on exports

Technology Leaders

As India evolves, technological excellence will become more important

Possess the required expertise and experience of dealing in many

developing markets

Immense pricing power

The “25% free float” advantage

It has taken away “de-listing premium”; cheaper valuations

Free float has increased and hence made the universe more investible

Managements have become more accessible

Corporate Action

MNCs are looking to increase their stake in Indian subsidiaries

Buy-backs by global giants such as Unilever, Bayer Cropscience and hike

in promoter stake by companies such as Kansai Nerolac stand testimony

to this trend

Global Consolidation

Global consolidation has also led to value creation

This has led to open offers due to “change in management”

In many cases, since the parent already owns 75%, another open offer

has resulted into eventual de-listing

Page 20: INTRODUCINGsupremewealth.in/images/pdf/SPM_Micro_Cap_Strategy_May-2016.pdf · INDIA MACRO MOMENTUM STRONGER THAN BEFORE 2 * The currency rank relates to Dec.’ 13, ’15, ’16 (expected)

20

MICRO CAPS – CASE STUDY

Revenue (in Rs.crs) PAT (in Rs.crs) P/E(x) Marketcap

2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016

HITACHI HOME* 758 1,820 29 67 17 49 506 3,301

SQS INDIA 83 264 2 37 30 26 57 969

ITD CEMENTATION 1,462 3,069 9 65 24 26 223 1,694

V-GUARD 726 1,850 43 112 12 24 502 2,649

NAVIN FLUORINE 429 678 71 84 4 20 253 1,653

HERITAGE FOODS* 1,096 2,368 1 54 - 22 202 1,189

* Expected financials for FY16

Source: Bloomberg; In-house computation

Page 21: INTRODUCINGsupremewealth.in/images/pdf/SPM_Micro_Cap_Strategy_May-2016.pdf · INDIA MACRO MOMENTUM STRONGER THAN BEFORE 2 * The currency rank relates to Dec.’ 13, ’15, ’16 (expected)

DISCLAIMER

21

General Disclaimer: This document is issued by Sundaram Asset Management Portfolio Managers registered with the Securities and Exchange Board of India in India. This

document is produced for information purposes only and not a complete disclosure of every material fact and terms and conditions. It does not constitute a prospectus or offer

document or an offer or solicitation to buy any securities or other investment The statements contained herein may include statements of future expectations and other forward-

looking statements that are based on our current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or

events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Investors shall be fully responsible /liable for any decision taken on the basis of this presentation..

Investors should before investing in the Scheme make their own investigation and seek appropriate professional advice. Investments in Securities are subject to market and

other risks and there is no assurance or guarantee that the objectives of any of the strategies of the Portfolio Management Services will be achieved. • Clients under Portfolio

Management Services are not being offered any guaranteed/assured returns. • Past performance of the Portfolio Manager does not indicate the future performance of any of the

strategies. • The name of the Strategies do not in any manner indicate their prospects or return. • The investments may not be suited to all categories of investors. • The material

is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. • Neither Sundaram Asset

Management Company Ltd. , nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their

investigations and take their own professional advice. • Opinions, if any, expressed are our opinions as of the date of appearing on this material only. While we endeavour to

update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.

The Portfolio Manager is not responsible for any loss or shortfall resulting from the operation of the strategy. • Recipient shall understand that the aforementioned statements

cannot disclose all the risks and characteristics. The recipient is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors including their financial condition, suitability to risk return,

etc. and take professional advice before investing. As with any investment in securities, the Value of the portfolio under management may go up or down depending on the

various factors and forces affecting the capital market. Disclosure Document shall be obtained and read carefully before executing the PMS agreement. • Prospective investors

and others are cautioned that any forward - looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. • For tax consequences, each investor is advised

to consult his / her own professional tax advisor. • This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished solely for information and must not be reproduced or

redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. Distribution Restrictions – This material

should not be circulated in countries where restrictions exist on soliciting business from potential clients residing in such countries. Recipients of this material should inform

themselves about and observe any such restrictions. Statutory: Mutual Fund: Sundaram Mutual Fund is a trust under Indian Trusts Act, 1882 Liability for sponsor is limited to Rs.

1 lakh. Sponsor: Sundaram Finance Ltd. Investment Manager: Sundaram Asset Management Company Ltd. Trustee: Sundaram Trustee Company Ltd.